Bitcoin Today Recast 3/26/26

You have to find some way that you can cross the world, which is Bitcoin, you know?

It is a asset pattern that affects you.

You have to find some way that you can cross the world, which is a asset pattern that you can cross the world, which is a asset pattern that you can cross the world.

How are you doing?

I'm doing well. Nice to have you back. Nice to see Toma here. Nice to see Puncher here.

It is. Let's bring Chad up.

So Chad, Toma, how are you?

Doing good? Super.

Life is good in Canada?

You know, I like to complain a lot.

Yeah, it doesn't help though.

Life is good, but there's a lot of places where it's a lot worse.

That's a great perspective. Class half full. Puncher.

I've been playing with my dog this morning.

I did a podcast with the Alex Danzig.

I'm getting my fix of the things I enjoy. I just got to figure out what to make for lunch.

Life is rough. Played with my dog trying to figure out what's for lunch.

Unless you're getting older.

Yeah, that's not great.

That's not great.

Not everything's easy in life.

I had a toilet. I had to plunge it.

It was really hard to get to clear it.

I actually, because I'm getting older, I have a little bit of soreness.

And when muscle is a result of doing that, so it's like,

which Toma do you want to show up?

Happy, optimistic, Toma, or the cranky old man, Toma?

But in the older day, I think we will start to appreciate things like that more.

Even though we can pay or outsource or delegate those things to others.

Don't do the things you don't enjoy.

Maybe all of these tactile, more archaic things we do enjoy.

Maybe we want to do.

There's probably some enjoyment.

Are you saying that AI can unclog Toma's toilet?

AI can't, but it can help him.

I use it all the time for little things like that.

Just last night, it took a photo of the dryer.

The gasket was coming loose.

And I'm like, how the hell do I get this back on?

And it knows exactly what to do.

That I couldn't have figured out on my own.

But I had fun doing it on my own.

I really did.

Yeah, AI yesterday.

I mean, I could have Googled it beforehand.

So it's not a big breakthrough.

But my wife wanted us to make an Italian dish called Asabuco.

We bought the Veal Shanks.

And I googled the AI recipe, which I think sent me to a website.

So I still like the old Google formula.

But it came out amazing.

And I had the satisfaction of home cooking a great delicious meal.

It turned out fantastic.

I highly recommend it.

I'm guessing that's what Puncher did as well.

Punchy, good morning.

Good morning.

For some reason, my mother-in-law, who is a great Italian cook,

thinks I like lamb.

And I never like lamb.

And she cooks me lamb all the time.

She goes, Kevin, I got your favorite lamb.

So I got to choke it down without hurting her feelings.

Maybe that's your wife's side piece who likes the lamb.

She's just confusing you with him.

Maybe. Maybe I'm being cuckled.

I don't know. But I doubt it.

But anyway, no, about being negative.

So it's different.

So a lot of my trad five friends are like, man, you're so doom and gloom

about the economy and I ran.

And I'm like, well, I'm just giving you a different perspective.

And having been there.

And kind of understanding macro to an extent.

And being around really smart people who do.

I'm just saying that maybe things aren't that great.

That being said, being negative, like being like,

moping and complaining more than anything is soul sucking.

When you're around somebody who's like that,

it's literally more offensive than having bad breath.

It sucks your will to live.

It's almost like they're stealing your life force as you're around them.

So I've decided not to be around or try not to sort of minimize the

amount that I'm around. People who are just negative, like,

woe is me in complaining.

But not around people who are like realistic.

Like, hey, maybe, you know, maybe this wasn't such a good idea to go in.

They had a round type thing and here's why.

That's completely different thing than being,

quote unquote, negative all the time.

Most people are stupid.

Also a good point.

Yeah, a good point, puncher.

Should you say hi to Chad?

I think you just did.

Hi, Chad. Good morning.

Lauren, when you're not here, we do miss the music and your personality.

So good to have you up.

Thank you. One of the few.

One of the few.

One of the few, one of the few.

Um, regarding the positivity thing, you know, puncher 100% right,

but anytime you get one of these waves of malaise or feeling bad

because of all the negativity around us,

we have a monetary system for the first time in history that is built on physics and engineering

and is it's so uplifting.

And I really believe that this is one of the fundamental things that we build on moving forward

to make the world just an amazing place.

So anytime you're feeling down, just go look at the,

go read the white paper.

Um, and there was just been so a lot of news today.

So we can get to that in a second.

But I mean, I woke up expecting a normal day.

And I just, I've been just barraged with the,

the amount of alpha that I've picked up out there

and looking forward to discussing that today.

So good morning to all.

And, um, let's do it.

Well, Chad, that's where the impatience comes in.

And I am an impatient person.

I do not, you know, patience is a virtue.

Yeah, bullshit.

I want to get on with this thing.

And that's where I get, you know, a little frustrated because, uh,

and I'm kind of, you know, I'm 58 years old.

So I want to see this thing manifest and be part of it.

And it just seems like, you know, we're hanging around and hanging around.

And the old system just keeps coming up with new tricks to,

keep coming up with new tricks.

And the old system just keeps coming up with new tricks to keep the balls in the air.

And it's, it's, so that, that's, that's impatience, not negativity.

I'm trying to put my tongue in your ass, but it's pretty impressive.

Oh, man, punch it.

Oh, my gosh.

Let's see, Louise.

Mike's up here.

Yeah, puncher, you may not make it until we get to see, uh,

the golden Fort Knox.

Something tells me you're not going to make it.

None of us.

I'm not here with you.

But I've seen the Promised Land.

That kind of thing.

Good morning, Mike.

40 years for the Jews to wander through the desert before finding the Promised Land.

We are only 17 years into our wandering in the desert.

But we're in a digital age.

Let me go faster.

Well, Bitcoin is our mana.

Jew got to be kidding me.

Mike, good morning.

How are you?

Mike's here.

But not here.

The same time.

Seems like we should go back to Chad because he was itching to, uh,

get to some news articles of the day.

Sure.

Um, so, you know, Tom, I love that four years through the desert because.

Forgive me guys.

This is going to take longer than we wanted to in my opinion.

I hope I'm wrong.

Um, but to the news.

I mean, I don't know if you guys saw it from the CEO of Unicarbo.

Um, the quote was half of the world's landfills cannot sell their power to the grid.

For those landfills, Bitcoin is the only economically viable way to destroy the methane.

And I'm, you know, I'm an environmental guy in a lot of ways and solar industry, et cetera.

And, um, and that's just it's so spot on, right?

And then the third that was super exciting to me is I've been playing with this cost of production power law and trying to reconcile it with the difficulty adjustment hash rate.

And, um, and specifically, you know, the cost of energy jumping every four years.

It's not just the supply.

Um, the way it's dictated through time.

It's also the way it impacts the energy curve and it's that cost of production that I believe, which is.

It's not exactly a floor, but it's like a field.

And there's great, you know, Dan Hillary put out a great piece on it today from Claude and it makes complete sense and that's coming together.

So those three things were, were really big and I don't know which one the room wants to bite off if it's the Fannie Mae, if it's the methane or if it's the cost of production things, but those were really interesting to me.

I think any thoughts guys, Tom or I feel like you could jump in there easily on the cost of production part of it and, you know, turns you on the Fannie Mae preference either way.

I don't know enough about the cost of production to, to really weigh in if you had a specific question.

I might be able to say something, but.

Yeah, if you don't mind, I take it offline then and just read through Dan's post, I reposted it and see what you think because I really think there's a lot of meat on this because to me, it's the engineering of, you know, Satoshi's genius, the difficulty adjustment and the incentive alignment.

I just can't get enough of those two subjects and I'm not deep enough.

To be able to talk to about it with the normie, but I could definitely absorb if you want to just cut out for you guys or just me.

What's that, Tom?

I think Tom or can't hear you, Chad, for somebody. It must be me. I'm going to switch networks and I'll rejoin.

Okay.

Stay with the Bitcoin network, Tom. Oh, geez. Is he going over to Tau? I hope he doesn't go over to Tau.

If you want, Chad, I can speak on the Fannie Mae thing.

That'd be awesome. Yeah. Tom will get's back.

It's definitely one of the topics today.

Yeah, it's one of the things that irritates me a little.

The Pete Rizzo often jumps on these things and Coinbase released a big thing and all of the big Bitcoin news companies are like, yeah, Bitcoin mortgages are here, Bitcoin mortgages are here.

They're not really doing their homework or looking into it.

So cutting to the chase, there is no Bitcoin mortgage in what everyone's talking about. Zip.

Fannie Mae is not dealing with Bitcoin whatsoever. They're just giving you a standard, conforming, conventional loan that you would have to qualify for with your W2, with your debt to income, with your credit scores.

Nothing changes. That's all standard.

So if you have, you know, if there's a million dollar house you want and you're putting 20% down to qualify, $800,000 of that at the 80% of it is a standard mortgage.

It has nothing to do with Bitcoin. It doesn't touch Bitcoin.

Now, you have to put 20% down for that program. Where are you going to get that?

Well, you can separately today, you don't have to, there's no program, you go and you can get a mortgage, you can borrow off of your Bitcoin.

And that's all this is. At a two to one, this is just borrowing off your Bitcoin from this thing called Better Home Financing.

And they custody it with Coinbase, which you can do a Coinbase loan anyways or, you know, another 20 other platforms and get alone.

I just don't like when, when people are pushing out these narratives that something is something new is existing that hasn't already existed.

And it would be great. I think Bitcoin mortgages will come and there are some companies like Milo and people's reserve that are working on these that are actual Bitcoin mortgages.

But this is not a Bitcoin mortgage at all. You just have two loans for 100% the price of the house if you want to use Bitcoin.

You just have your regular Fannie Mae loan for 80% or whatever percent, you know, you can go all the way to, you know, you can go to five or potentially three even if it's an FHA.

But you separately just for your down payment, if you don't have any fiat, you can put up Bitcoin.

And in that example, I just gave you with 200,000 down payment, you'd have to put up 5.714 Bitcoin today because that would be two to one, that would be 400K.

So I think it's good for pre-cointers and people because it's another narrative that says, oh, wow, Bitcoin is money.

You know, you stop saying, we're, how can I buy a slice of pizza with it? Now you can buy a house with it.

But we know as Bitcoiners, you're not technically buying the house with the Bitcoin. You're just getting a loan off of your Bitcoin to put some cash down on the house.

That's it. There's nothing different. So you're going to see news everywhere. It's proliferated, which is why I put up in the nest. I quickly wrote a post just to explain what it really is because as Bitcoiners, we want to verify everything. Jennifer.

I just wanted to offer a tidbit too. I looked it up a while back. So I do have a HELOC with a mortgage company that I got a notification of as of February 1st, they will accept digital assets as collateral or part of the collateral that you would use.

And I think this mortgage company is called, it's called new res and it's a company that is part owned by a REIT, honestly, it's based out of California. Interestingly, they've been around a long time, but they're one of the first in the country of the traditional sort of tradify mortgage companies and mortgage servicers that will look at digital assets.

And interestingly enough, they'll look at Bitcoin and they'll look at, it was an XRP. What was the other one? I was looking for the blog.

Yeah, they'll look at tether, they'll look at table coins. Yeah, new res is one of the biggest. I write most of my mortgages for new res.

Yeah, they're a great wholesaler, so they're good for us.

Yeah, so this has already existed for a while. I think it happened in mid-2025 around June or July that now all mortgage companies do need to consider Bitcoin and some crypto mostly stablecoins as collateral, especially for seconds or thirds.

So for Helox, for home equity lines of credit. So that is good, absolutely.

But it's still just collateral. You're not using the Bitcoin for anything outside of collateral, which you can kind of use just anywhere. Helox, again, it's just a loan.

And it's even a more favorable loan for the investors because they also have a lien on your house. They're not just lending you dollars against your Bitcoin.

So it's kind of a no-brainer for them. Yeah.

Yeah, and when I took it out, I didn't use my Bitcoin as collateral, but I thought that was so interesting when I saw the notification that they emailed.

So it's just interesting for the future and for others. So yeah, it's about time. I was recognized as part of your portfolio collateral.

Yeah, I think it's great just as the normies out there just start to see that Bitcoin is going to be part of money and part of everything.

And every way that they interface with money and loans and assets, you know, Bitcoin can be a component.

It's just this thing that came out today with Coinbase is 100% not that.

Chad, Tomers back, but it looks like we lost puncture.

We've got Bob.

Yeah, but that's not puncture. I just said puncture's not back.

What is Bob chopped liver? Good morning, Bob. How are you doing?

Hey, good morning, guys. I do think it's big news.

But I think where it leads is to business owners being able to use it on their personal financial statements.

That could be even more significant than just the mortgage stuff because I think business owners in this country are the ones who really drive a lot of the job creation.

Also, these guys and gals have more disposable income as well.

And so you can see where money would flow into Bitcoin if you can use it as something on your personal financial statement that you have to provide for a financial institution if you're trying to get a business loan.

Yeah, I think that's great. That's always been good.

What I'm saying, Bob, is that has nothing to do with what Coinbase and others are saying today is a Bitcoin mortgage.

It's not a Bitcoin mortgage. A mortgage is a loan against future income with lean on your house period. That's all a mortgage is.

This is not that with Bitcoin. You separately can take your Bitcoin to a separate company called better home financing and just get a loan for dollars and Coinbase will custody that Bitcoin for you, which you can do today with their morphal loans.

But you then separately have to go get a regular government obedience token loan with Fannie Mae.

Anyway, that's all I'm saying.

But what are you saying, Terrence? Go ahead, Jennifer. I saw you came off mute.

Oh, no. I was just going to say I think I just jumped in late because I finished up a work meeting. But it's just such an excellent conversation as we're, you know, the old scene of one foot and two boats.

You know, you got one from the dock and one foot in the boat. It's, you know, we're transitioning. And so we still have to play some fiat games for sure until, you know, there is massive sweeping change or conversion to this.

So it can be extremely confusing. I just appreciate you guys being here and talking about all this stuff.

Well, thanks for jumping up, Jennifer. We're always trying to invite more women up here as well, but a lot of them are shy. They're not coming up.

Yeah, but Terrence prefers men. Well, I just invited the party girls so they can tell us how their latest meetup was. I saw they just had a big one.

Oh, yeah. Yeah, but they're keeping all they keep it to themselves. They're just kind of song girls. If you come up. Yeah, the little selfish.

But anyways, Tomers back. If Tomer had anything he wanted to add to Chad's question, we can go back to.

I was having a hard time hearing Chad's question, which is why I dropped. So I need, I need to be requested for if I'm going to try to offer an answer.

Unbelievable. So this amateur hour here. I'll try to, I'll try to make a simple question, but it's got a lot of legs. And that is, how do, how do the difficulty adjustment and incentive alignment?

Work so magnificently to produce this production cost field, if you will, that through time is going to continue to just go up.

I believe in the shape of a power curve, but the importance of the question is really about the difficulty adjustment and the incentive alignment.

Huh. I didn't fully understand the question. How does how does the difficulty adjustment manifest to literally force the production cost up through time continuously?

Well, it doesn't. It, it's kind of iterative. It's if there's a feedback loop, which can go in both directions.

Right. What tends to happen because of the nature of competition is people look, people make a decision to dedicate money, you know, to dedicate money to buy equipment and purchase energy to power the equipment into Bitcoin mining provided and they'll do more of it.

If it's profitable to do so, right. Like if I can, if I can buy some equipment and put some energy into it that will generate a Bitcoin for me at less than $69,800 or whatever the current price is, I might do that.

You know, because that's how I could generate profit. If it looks like I can do it for $30,000, I'm in right away. If it looks like it's going to cost $100,000, I'm not going to do it.

So let's say it looks like you can mine a Bitcoin for $30,000 today. A lot of people are going to like to do that.

But what that's going to do is it's going to put more mining hash power, more energy into the into the process of mining Bitcoin and Bitcoin will then adjust the difficulty to the point where it's cost $40,000 say.

And if the more people keep putting in, it'll go to 50, 60 and you end up with in the long term, the sick equilibrium where it's very hard to be long term profitable as a miner because miners keep making the decision to try to mine more when it's profitable, which makes the cost of mining a Bitcoin more expensive on top of that.

You also have not just the difficulty adjustment, but you have this event every $210,000 blocks or roughly four years call the having which which comes on very instantaneous. It comes on very suddenly everyone can see it coming, but when it comes on comes on all at once and cuts your Bitcoin yield per hash and half.

So mining is mining is one of these near perfectly competitive businesses because you don't it's not even like if you choose to you to might choose to grow lemons.

Because the market had cost you a dollar to produce a lemon and lemon self or two dollars. I know that's not the current price, but just to make it to keep the number simple.

So you're making a dollar a lemon and other people will then want to produce lemons to driving down the price of lemons because they're driving up the supply of lemons.

With Bitcoin, it's not it's not like that. If you decide to put more money into mining, you're not going to produce more the market won't produce more Bitcoin that difficulty adjustment ensures that only the right amount of Bitcoin gets produced at roughly the right pace.

But what you do do is you increase you cause an increase in the price of mining. So like if you choose to grow a lemon tree or any other commodity that you want to produce.

It really is an orange, Tom or Bitcoin is an orange. Let's say oranges.

But no, I don't want to confuse orange coins with orange fruit. Let's stick with lemons.

We can do potatoes. We can do other commodities like gold. If you start mining gold in a new gold mine, it doesn't reduce the amount of gold that comes out of another gold mine.

It increases the supply which pushes down the price. But if you start mining Bitcoin and you have enough mining hash bar that you're actually producing Bitcoin, that's coming out of the supply that someone else who's who's already mining Bitcoin produces.

Bitcoin, the more people who try to produce it, it has no impact on the supply that actually gets produced. But it does have an impact on the cost that it costs to produce an average Bitcoin.

That's the reality. That's what makes mining Bitcoin unique from any other commodity production. The supply doesn't change with other commodities.

The supply does change, generally forcing down the price. With Bitcoin, mining it does not increase the supply. Therefore, it does not decrease the price through a supply increase.

The price is a function of the demand and what people are prepared to pay for it. However, I think this is one of the interesting things.

The more people that mine, the greater the security of Bitcoin is. We've discussed before how it takes more energy to undermine the security of Bitcoin than has been invested in the Bitcoin that you're trying to undermine the security of since it was mined.

That increases the value of Bitcoin. The fact that it is more secure with more mining becomes indomitably secured.

More mining does increase the value of Bitcoin, which then causes the price of Bitcoin to go up, which causes the profitability of mining Bitcoin to go up temporarily, which causes more miners to mine Bitcoin, which increases the security of Bitcoin.

That increases the cost of mining Bitcoin. That's the mechanism, the flywheel that you would describe or the chain of events that generally tend to see the price of Bitcoin going up and the price of mining Bitcoin going up.

The cause and effect between them could be tied to the increased security of Bitcoin that goes up as more and more people mine Bitcoin, more and more companies mine Bitcoin, making it more secure and therefore more valuable.

Is that helpful? It doesn't speak to your power law.

No, it's incredibly helpful. It's a lot. It's like, I'll go back and I'll replay this a couple of times and then I'll probably reach out to you. It can't offline or we can discuss it here.

It's the genius of this thing that the deeper you go and the better you understand it, your conviction just does nothing.

You can become like sale or you wake up in the morning and I don't have enough of this. It's just so amazing.

So thank you.

There's also a clearance mechanism. If the miners over invest in mining equipment, as they often do during periods of time when the price goes up rapidly and doesn't necessarily stay up at that rate or each of them did the calculus like, oh, if I double my hash rate, I'll make twice as much money and they all do it.

The higher hash rate doubles, but the price has only gone up 50%. Suddenly their profits get erased and so some of them have to turn off their miners, some go out of business and you will recall in, I guess it was 2022 or 2023 that there were a bunch of miners who reduced their hash rate significantly and a couple that went into receivership.

They were scientific was one at the time, if memory serves correctly. So my like mining itself is not the same as buying Bitcoin.

It's a very harsh, very competitive business and I guess one other point that I was going to make I'm sorry for looping back around is like, if you grow lemons in Florida and somebody else is growing lemons in China, you're not in that directly competitive a market because you have to sell the market.

Like where you ship the product to ads to the cost of it and in some cases you can't ship the product while it's still fresh and useful to some other parts of the world so you're not in perfect competition.

But when you mine a Bitcoin, you're in perfect competition with everybody also mind a Bitcoin. You can sell it anywhere in the world instantly. It's not going to go bad. It has no shipping charges.

So it's one of the most perfectly competitive markets in the world. Mining Bitcoin and although you don't have to, you know, and you don't have to market it, you don't have to sell it.

Everybody, it's completely vulnerable to any other Bitcoin that's mine. So and if you studied micro economics, the first thing one of the first lessons you learn is in in perfect competition.

Producers tend to have to sell at their marginal cost of production and actually end up having a loss equal to their fixed costs.

So mining is a very, very difficult business. Not it's not one that I carelessly recommend people getting into.

Tom, remember before you're mad, I just got to say, I'm just used a metaphor. What's going on?

Of lemons? Yeah. No, I'm saying it's not like lemons. Oh, okay. I'm just providing the contrast. There's no matter for there at all. Okay, just just be just just told you. Okay. Hey, Matt, got your hand up. Go for it.

Yeah, I think everyone's been reacting to or noticing the news of Mara, Mara holding selling 15,000 Bitcoin over over March basically.

And you know, plenty of people have been picking that apart. I've been making fun of it personally. I shared it up in the nest.

So it doesn't matter what they're getting into or what their plan is. I mean, essentially, they bought 15,000, they bought 15,000 Bitcoin in late 2024 and sold it for less than they bought it and used debt to fuel it.

There's a lot of speculation. Well, they're going to use a process to get into AI or where they're going to cancel a lot of long term debt. But this is just one example of a lot of examples of buying high selling low and making a fool of yourself.

So I agree with Tomas point that yeah, this is a cutthroat big picture. This is a cutthroat hyper competitive risky business where you're right. You're not competitive.

You're not competing with the miners across the street or across the state. You're competing with every single miner across the planet at any given time.

And if you don't control your, if you don't have cheap access to a six, maybe you produce them or maybe you have a super cheap plan in place or you don't control your power.

Maybe you produce power or maybe you have easy access to at cost or below cost. Like what competitive, what competitive advantage do you have?

And that's where I think you're seeing a lot of miners today at tomorrow, you know, yesterday at someone else, but we've seen, we've seen a lot of middle man miners that they don't, they don't produce their own a six and they don't produce their own energy.

And so cycle after cycle, we see the, we see them capitulate in the bear market. It's almost inevitable.

Again, to Tomas point, because this is, it's a hyper competitive business. And when the bear market comes and it always does that, that the revenue you get from selling a Bitcoin comes basically all the way back down to fair value, if not below value.

And so the weakest miners go out of the weakest miners, hang it up. They either shut off where they change business models to go after something else. But these are honestly all, all healthy signs of a bear market bottom.

So, yeah, miner capitulation is just one of those, it's just one of those signs that we see along the way and same shit different cycle.

Did you get that, Chad?

Yes, sir. How about anybody, anybody else see the article about the methane mitigation that Bitcoin mining is providing and anybody have any thoughts on that and the interest.

I'd ask it from this point, if we're, you know, we're talking about what Matt just said about how this is your competing globally.

This is like that decentralization at scale, right? And it's, anybody know anything about the proliferation of mining expansion in Africa, South America, or could give us an update there.

I see we got Eric out in the audience and I would think Eric from a mining perspective, Eric, can you come up and give us an update on the mining industry.

I also see Shannon down there who doesn't, isn't a miner, but wanted to see if she wanted to come up, but she, she just DMed me, she's over at Lowe's filling up her Subaru with Martha Stewart paint.

So maybe she'll come up a little bit later soon, she gets home.

Well, too bad she can't join us, but Jennifer, I don't know if you're with us yesterday when we started to talk with Shannon about women in Bitcoin. And, you know, first of all, thanks for being up here with us, but would you share your thoughts about why we don't see more women on stage here or even on a percentage basis in the room, which I hear is better the next in general, but why don't we see more.

Voices like yourself is up here. Any ideas?

I think it's a couple of things, you know, it's, you know, the, the Fat Boy commentary is so fun to watch, and no, but I don't want to get up and get up there and have anybody, you know, talk about my, my pair of balls or whatever, but so I think it's a little bit of just, you know, stepping back and, you know, sometimes there's just.

A lot of pissing contests going on, but it is fun to watch sometimes, but no, I think, you know, you know, finance and trad vibe that's creeped into this is oftentimes, you know, mainly a guy thing.

And it's probably the rare female that that really gets interested in, you know, listening to the derivatives complex and some of these, you know, financial things as we again as.

Tradify crashes right into Bitcoin and we're in this middle ground, I think most of the women really are still very much idealistic in terms of, you know, why we came in because we see how broken the system is obviously.

And many of the the women in Bitcoin spaces are more about creating that new, which is what women are good at right we're good at nurturing fostering and creating.

You know, new and more positive environments and things rather than extracting from the system like, you know, tradify really and banking and all that all these old systems legacy systems have been set up to do.

So I think it's it's a little bit of that, but I think it's super interesting to watch the the massive transformation from one system to another.

So it just may be that and, you know, males get pretty dominant.

So sometimes we don't always feel as welcome, but you guys do a great job of that.

Well, I see a lot of them, you know, some other women in the audience like our friend Paula or Shannon's unavailable at the moment, but that's great color.

Can you do me a favor?

No, Shannon came up here now, Chad. She just jumped.

Sorry, I can't see you.

Yeah, she pulled the Subaru over.

Yeah, she is. Hey, good morning. Can you can we continue our conversation from yesterday, Shannon?

Yeah, but I just yeah, I am in the process of pulling my Subaru over at Home Depot.

If everyone can just give me a moment.

Thank you for that, Terrence.

No, I think Jennifer was really eloquent in expressing that one of the things interesting.

There's a couple of very loud voices.

I think also that I'm not, by the way, I'm not intimidated by any of it.

But sometimes when we get into the name calling stuff, I'm just like, eh, you'll ask me.

And one, I mean, a person, I'll just call it out here that I cannot stand as British huddle.

I think he's a dick.

And I think he was either bullied or had very critical parents because like the way that he approaches things is just even though I don't agree with him and everything on everything.

Put that aside, I don't like the approach.

And I just find it like it's like when people do something really ask Holish and then say, well, you know, I'm not perfect.

I'm like, you'll ask me there again.

No one said you had to be perfect, but just, you know, communicate in a way that doesn't, you know, put other people down or make them feel less than.

So I find approach can be off putting to women who maybe have a different communication style.

The other one that, although I do, I will preface this was saying that I love him.

And I think his point of view is very important.

Sometimes G money gets into a rant where there's no entry point for a reasonable conversation is just like off you go.

So sometimes I'm like, I'd love to interject, but it just, it feels like a runaway train into which there is no reasonable entry point.

And then you have to do the job of deescalating, the name calling and the, and the, that sort of reductive tone that I just, I just don't like.

But Lauren and Terrence do do a great job at moderating that for the most part.

And, and I do like G money's point of view.

So I don't know.

I think it's a communication style too.

Sometimes it's just, it's not worth the effort.

It's just too hard.

And it's a stick.

It's a, it's a stick.

You know, British is that's his, his deal.

At least he stopped putting the boobs on the, on the shorts on the video.

But, but he hasn't stopped with the, you know, the feminist slurs and how, you know, how good it is in the,

in the Middle East where women are in their place, things like that.

And I'm just going to have to look past it.

I mean, I try, but you're right.

It's very, very irritating.

So Jennifer, can you go back to what you're saying about nurturing, fostering, creating and like, you know, the,

you know, since before I said, how broken the system is, right?

Do,

do more women see how broken the system is?

Like, and if they do, then why aren't we seeing more of that nurturing, fostering and creating from,

you know, from your gender?

Because God, we want to see it and want to do everything we can to promote those things.

They definitely see how broken it is, especially, you know, because women are,

are the healthcare decision makers for their families.

They're, you know, they're the ones doing that, you know, buying groceries and,

and a lot of times do it in the budgeting, you know, because depending on different roles.

But, yeah, I think they see it as just not really seeing the root cause of why.

Because, you know, as we all hear, you know, the mass delusion of a fiat currency is really,

is where we've all been and it is incredibly hard to understand what the heck is behind that,

without going down the whole, you know, jackal island thing,

and which loses a lot of people.

So, I, and conspiracy theory, we've all been gasslet so bad.

So, I think that's why, and I did not mean to cut off Shannon at all,

if she wasn't finished.

She needs to be cut off sometimes, Jennifer.

No, you didn't, Jennifer.

Yeah, no, I agree with everything you just said.

I think, I do want to really just commend Lauren and, and Terrance also,

because, and, and, and some of the, the guest hosts and co-hosts,

because I, this place has just been such a lovely touch point for my almost daily work week life.

Sometimes just done on the background, but it does feel like a really inviting space.

And energetically, it does feel different and more inviting for women.

So, I commend you both and, and really appreciate the community you've built.

And also, voices like Tomer and, et cetera, and, and puncher and, and dark,

even though half the time you guys are talking at stuff that I'm like,

oh, you're talking about.

Wait, did you have a stroke? What just happened?

Yeah, well, and it's, no, I, I'm, I'm back in and driving mode in the Subaru and, and, and sorry,

trying to do two things at once.

Um, but yeah, and Eric is another just voice.

I mean, there's just so many men in this space that I love.

Um, and, uh, and make it just feel more accessible,

even though, like I said, half the time I don't understand what you guys are talking about,

that's okay. I'm learning bit by bit, and I contribute where I can in ways that I think

actually bring value.

You will learn from our mansplaining, Shannon.

Do you understand the rules in driving in the left lane?

Well, I do because, no, I do, well, actually, I do because I learned to drive in England.

So, um, so I'm well acquainted with driving on that side of the road.

Fair enough.

I, you were rent free in my head yesterday when I was driving puncher.

I was thinking about that.

So, uh, Shannon speaking of men that you love, we see we have Eric up here as a speaker now,

and was hoping to loop him in regarding the, uh, the mining and the conversation we had earlier.

Eric, did you catch all of that?

Uh, yeah, I caught a little bit of it.

Sorry, I got a call while that was happening too.

I wanted to hop up here.

But, um, yeah, if you guys remember about four or five months ago,

we had a space on here where the first probably 45 minutes was dedicated to the mining industry.

And, uh, we talked about the, the threat of 71 to 73,000 where you'd start to see some capitulation.

So, that's real.

I mean, that, that you have PPA pricing where, where that, that rate for a lot of these guys with eight, nine to ten cents per kilowatt hour,

they're going to turn down some computers at that point.

Uh, the mining industry itself right now, I'll give you firsthand information from me.

One of the reasons I've been away from this for a while is we've got to go through federal court, um, for one of our locations,

because a, a county got scared by, I don't want to say I don't want to be mean to people,

but the people who are uneducated in what we're doing,

or off-grid guys, they were afraid that we were building a data center that would use all the electricity in the water in the town,

and cause the big stink, and then they violated our constitutional rights in three different ways.

So we have a huge, huge law firm that took the case, so we have to take that federal court to get, um, that bypassed.

That's not an uncommon thing, uh, right now with a lot of these, uh, uh, mines that are being set up around the country right now.

There's a lot of pushback from legislation, from permits and approvals.

We have a lot more scrutiny on that side, so thankfully we have a couple operations in Kentucky.

Um, you know, I'm more on the energy side, so I can't speak a whole lot to the miners.

I mean, that's what I do. I mean, I'm, I'm even back at my old oil, oil and gas company,

a couple days a week here, just looking for partnerships in that capacity.

I can tell you the oil and gas industry is looking to use some of their shallow vertical gas wells for Bitcoin mining,

because the profit margins much higher.

That's a, that's a big thing in Bitcoin mining that most people aren't seeing right now.

So when you start seeing mid majors in that area that are like, hey, you know, can you, can you link us up and show us how to use this energy that we're,

we're bringing out from underneath the ground and turn it into electricity for something more profitable.

That's a big piece.

Um, I think, total, you were talking about overseas Africa, South America.

I don't really know. I've been kind of unplugged from the network for about a month.

I've just spent a week in Italy.

Um, but the, um, the general consensus I'm seeing here in, in America is, you know, this pricing for Bitcoin for the higher kilowatt per hour miners right now is a school down period.

So they're going to turn off some of the computers.

It's just basic economics 101.

But I think that right now I'm hearing a lot more people that are moving to off grid.

I mean, you guys were talking about methane for a minute there.

It's not really an area of expertise of mine, but I can tell you firsthand that the energy company is not not your exons and shells.

I mean, there certainly are a couple of them that are mining that are setting up big operations.

But I can tell you some of your energy companies are now linking together with off grid guys like me.

To figure out how to use that energy in the right pace.

I think you're going to see a little bit of a low in mining for the next couple of months.

And I think by the end of the year, especially with, you know, energy work with all the stuff that's happening with oil overseas right now.

That's, that's a big ticket for them.

But gas is remaining pretty, pretty stable in that area so that they're looking to convert in that, in that manner.

But I don't really have a whole lot of information on Africa.

I don't talk to a whole lot of the African miners.

I can bring on.

I can invite some of the guys.

I know who deal with overseas mining and bringing them onto a show here in the next couple of weeks.

I think that is a big update.

But in the US, you're just seeing a lot of radicalization from the data center build outs right now that are pushing back on off, you know, the off grid guys.

Like, we have our own well.

We have our own energy source.

We're not using electricity.

But people are assuming that we're like, they also assume that we're met up.

I'll give you some insight information on this too.

The lady who caused the stink in this county.

Her brother owns the farm next to the location where we are.

And in the end, she had sent people our way to our partner in Tennessee trying to, you know, she was basically strong arming this radicalization of her community, which started out as you're using our energy and our water.

And when we push back and said, we don't use any of your energy or your water.

And in fact, we sell 20% of the energy that we actually create from the gas pipeline back into your grid.

When that wasn't working, she started saying that we're going to kill endangered species and the noise from submerged Bitcoin miners somehow is going to destroy the mitochondria of children around the entire world.

You're watching like this leftist environmental movement to stop Bitcoin miners who are actually using excess energy to create more energy for counties and cities around the country.

They're pushing back on it because of the data centers who are doing that.

Some of these large scale guys are doing that.

Water is kind of a fallacy, but the electricity they are.

So I think there's going to be a bump in the road for the next six to nine months for folks because there's so many data 71 data centers being built in Texas right now.

Some of these things are 500, 600,000 square feet using a gigawatt or two gigawatts of energy that they've already purchased.

So there will be some pushback.

And I think that's going to be part of the transition into Bitcoin mining into a more effective world, which is a smaller minor off-grid, fully decentralized.

I think it's all good for Bitcoin mining, but there's certainly going to be some turbulence over the next couple of years.

Thanks for that, Eric.

And good to have you back.

Seems like you've been gone a long time.

I know, man.

Yeah, this whole work and family and travel and stuff is pretty time consuming, but excited.

I'll be back next week.

I've got my schedule.

I'll figure it out now, finally.

So we'll be back next week and open up the kimono.

Have some fun.

Talk about things that are happening in the world.

The world seems scary to people.

To me, it doesn't.

The world is what the world is.

The more you let it in your mind, the worse your mind becomes.

So you focus on the things that are positive in your life and keep moving to ball forward and pushing your boulder up the hill.

Everything seems to make sense in the end.

Yeah.

Amen to that.

Hey, let's say hi to Dave and then Fred, both you guys have just joined.

Hello, Terence.

How are you?

Good.

Good.

What's on your mind today?

We were talking about the Bitcoin mortgage, which is not a Bitcoin mortgage.

And we're just talking a little bit about mining.

No, I responded to.

I don't remember because I was in the gym, so I don't remember whether it was your tweet or somebody else that I responded to.

But I think that what matters.

What matters is the treatment of Bitcoin as good collateral.

I think is much more important than people are letting on.

So like a human who has money in a stock brokerage account.

That's a cat.

That's included.

You know, when you apply for a mortgage.

You know, whereas crypto was not.

And that's a big difference.

And that's going to dramatically affect people's asset allocations.

This is the first obvious example by allowing it to be part of the down payment, no less.

Where it flips that script or at least neutralizes that big advantage.

And so that matters.

And so in a normal world, if we didn't have, you know, people talking about world wars or oil going to 300 or any of the other things that are going on.

And there's a lot going on, obviously.

This is a sort of thing that is when you look back in and number of years, you're going to say, why the hell didn't I realize this was a bicycle.

And that's what I think is going on.

I mean, I think that it is actually a very big deal.

But it's the kind of big deal that it gets overlooked because it's a driver in the long term.

It's a narrative driver.

But narratives when they get moving become, you know, that's where FOMO comes from.

That's where big moves happen from.

But big moves still need people to start the big move.

But I do think that it's much bigger deal than people are saying because of that reason.

Yeah, it's a good point.

That's kind of what we we settled on earlier that the collateral part was good.

And the narrative part was good that people can see Bitcoin as money.

They now see it relating to real estate.

And just about everybody owns real estate or wants real estate and especially Bitcoiners.

So they see it that way.

We were just getting very technical and breaking into part and showing that.

It really is not a Bitcoin mortgage is 100% of Fiat mortgage because anyone can take Bitcoin right now.

Bar off of your Bitcoin, take that cash and put it down payment, which is really all this is.

It's completely separate.

Fannie Mae itself is not touching or interacting with Bitcoin whatsoever.

They want that cash down payment and they want a cash Fiat mortgage.

And so it's it really is technically no different.

But you're right Dave.

The narrative is important.

100%.

What do you think Fred?

Any thoughts?

Yeah, I haven't been following this Fannie Mae thing that closely.

So I'm going to confess to ignorance on this one.

I managed to saw the headline, but that's it.

But yeah, I'm sure it's not.

I think it probably is the beginning of something big.

So I agree with Dave there, but in and of itself, it's not something big.

I'm just listening to marathon selling its Bitcoin.

I mean, I just really wonder what this company was doing.

First of all, they're mining about two years ago.

They were mining Caspa.

Then they, I mean, then they just sort of got Michael Sala religion.

And they started borrowing these, you know, doing these converts.

Then they, you know, then they're, they're just leveraging up on borrowing money to buy Bitcoin.

Now they're selling the same Bitcoin lower.

I just don't get it.

I don't know Fred, but you know, you probably deserve yourself, you know,

100 tweets from Caspa lunatics.

So, you know, watch out for that.

Well, yeah, and yeah, that's true.

I mean, they're like, well, he mine Caspa.

Fantastic.

Brilliant.

You know, Caspa's down, I think 85% versus Bitcoin over the last two years.

Since they started becoming very loud.

It's just unbelievable.

They really have.

I mean, they were just going to point out one thing to him or which you'll, you'll find funny.

Those who have been talking about a theory, I don't know if you notice that a theory broke below the point.

Oh, three level versus Bitcoin, which has been kind of like a marginal line.

You know, it's Bitcoin out performance is getting, getting rather, rather large in many of these cases.

Yeah, I mean, I think as I've followed the story of, like I was talking earlier about what a tough business mining is.

And Mara's principally in Bitcoin mining.

And they're just, you know, they didn't realize how difficult the business was.

And they kept trying to find work around which, which were, which made things even worse.

But at the same time, the executives paid themselves outrageous salaries.

I remember the CEO won, won your paid himself $50 million while the stock was down.

So it's, it's just the, the warning that I issued before that Bitcoin mining is a hard business.

And you can't really think your way out of it, whether it was mining Caspa or opening up a special service to spam the Bitcoin blockchain.

Or I'm trying to remember what else that, what other stents they pulled, you know, sort of kind of half becoming a Bitcoin treasury company.

Mara's, Mara doesn't rank high in my, in my books.

As a, they're kind of like a negative indicator, whatever they do, or you should watch out for because they're a really bad document.

They changed their, the biggest problem is, I mean, they, they just changed their business model every year, every single year.

They're, they're throwing new spaghetti against the wall and ground is constantly shifting underneath their feet.

So how can you possibly want to invest in them because you have no idea what they're going to look like next year?

Yeah, I just looked over the past five years, the return on Mara has been minus 75%, minus 75.6%.

Tough business, not extremely well run.

Tom, I'm not good at math. Is that bad down 75%?

Yeah, it's bad.

Dad, you're just straight answered.

I guess the question here for, for Toma is, why does so much money attracted to these investments?

So it just seems like there's, we are over invested here in this sector.

Yeah, I mean, I, I think part of it is, you weren't here before Fred, but I was getting asked some pretty complicated, complex questions about mining and the difficulty adjustment.

Bitcoin mining is a very different industry than any, every other commodity production because in other commodities, you decide to get into producing them.

And the risk is you're producing, you know, you're increasing the supply, which might lower the price.

In Bitcoin mining, the more people who get into it, they, doesn't lead to any increased production of Bitcoin.

And so many people think it's like other production industries, but it's not.

What you're doing is you're, the contribution you're making is not you're increasing the supply of Bitcoin.

You're increasing the security of Bitcoin, which is hard to measure as value.

And so this industry often runs way ahead of itself when, when the Bitcoin price runs up, way more people miscalculate.

You know, they, they calculate, but they miscalculate how much more money they can put into Bitcoin mining versus how much they can extract.

And they end up extracting way less than they thought they could, not because the Bitcoin price moves downward because the cost of producing a Bitcoin ends up skyrocketing.

And then on top of that, you get some price fluctuations in, in Bitcoin itself.

But it is, it's a cutthroat tough business.

You know, the product, the product sells itself, but the competition is perfect, right?

Like wherever you produce it, you can sell it everywhere in the world instantly.

Again, so can every one of your competitors who produced it.

And so it's a, it's got a lot of shine and polish to it, but it's really a rough and tumble business.

And there's many new people who come to Bitcoin and this, this nuance and maybe other nuances of what makes Bitcoin mining so different than other commodities that are produced make, make a lot of people make a lot of mistakes.

I, you know, I'm, I myself, when I first got into Bitcoin, I, I converted all my Bitcoin into stock in a Bitcoin mining company called ASICMiner.

And I lost, I lost half my, I was lucky to get out with half of what I started in terms of Bitcoin.

So I learned the lesson not because I'm smart. I learned because I'm dumb.

What happened to that company, Tom?

It disappeared eventually. So first of all to call it a company is a bit of an exaggeration. It was the longest thread ever on the Bitcoin talk.org forum.

It was run by one guy named Friedcat.

And he lost half your Bitcoin, your honor. I lost half my Bitcoin. I invested in some guy named Friedcat.

That's right. For people who want to, it was the first ASIC, the first ASICS for mining Bitcoin. This guy manufactured them. He, he had a, he didn't have a website.

He had like, here, my reputation is going down really fast. He had a thread on the Bitcoin talk.org forum saying he could mint ASICS.

And he raised, he raised a bunch of Bitcoin for 50% equity in the company and his effort was the remaining 50%.

And he actually successfully produced ASICS that were USB sticks and they, they did one gig of hash, which was unprecedented at the time today.

You buy one tarot hash or like multi tarot hash Bitcoin miners, but these were USB sticks.

And he made a whole bunch of them and he sold them for Bitcoin, like one Bitcoin each back one Bitcoin was a couple hundred bucks.

And, and he mined with the rest that he produced. And so at one point he had a mining pool that was mining that was about half 30% of the hash rate.

And, and income from selling these things, which were some other percentage of the hash rate.

And he was paying a weekly dividend in Bitcoin to your Bitcoin wallet address based off of the shares that you had.

I bought my shares from somebody else, somebody acted as an escrow agent. And I never got back, you know, I, it showed me how the, the hash rate was growing by like 10% a week, which was phenomenal.

But it meant that over the course of a couple of months, the hash rate doubled, which meant that your payback per giga hash per, you know, per tarot per giga hash or tarot hash was getting cut in half by the difficulty adjustment every 10 weeks.

So, you know, you, you got back 5% the first week. You're like, oh my god, this is going to pay for itself in 20 weeks.

But it turned out it didn't pay for, it never paid back for itself because it kept getting cut in half by difficulty adjustments all the time.

And then, and then it was very hard to exit. And I, you know, I still think I got a great deal to get back only half of what I started investing in.

And so I learned firsthand how challenging Bitcoin mining can be. And, you know, and I don't think I'm a stupid person. I, but I was naive as to how Bitcoin worked and how much increased hash rate or perfectly perfect competition could affect the outcomes that you actually get.

And I think that's a phenomenon that's true with a lot of these new models around Bitcoin, you know, whether it's Bitcoin Treasury companies or other things.

There are things that look really good at first. And then you start to analyze. I mean, you say, hold on, there's like, this is going to push up against some limit here or some limit there.

And so, you know, for me, this lesson of Bitcoin works. It requires patience. Other things that are that promise to relieve you of the need for patience or soundness often just relieve you of your wealth.

Well, Tom, I'm sorry you lost all that Bitcoin, but you know, it is, it is refreshing that you're transparent because it helps a lot of others in the room feel a little bit better about themselves, because I think we all got wrecked. We all had these really painful lessons coming into Bitcoin. And often, like yourself, it was before we fully understood Bitcoin.

So we would take just some of the few fundamentals that we would know in the traditional world and try to apply it to Bitcoin. And make and we made these mistakes and it ended up being sort of an expensive Bitcoin degree for many of us.

Yeah, one other little story I remember is there was somebody on the Bitcoin talk forum who desperately wanted to shortchairs in this company and was trying to figure out a way to do it. He said, can we find someone who will

lend shares and let me sell them and let me have an obligation to I need to put Bitcoin as dividends and escrow. And I don't remember if the person I've actually ever managed did ever did manage, but there was someone who had was smart enough or had been around long enough to realize what was going on and wanting to try to figure out how to take a short position.

There might have been a big short on on a sick minor that nobody will ever make a movie out of, but it was a fascinating story and the thread still lives on in the Bitcoin talk forum, which still lives on.

And it's still the longest thread ever because it includes everyone ever like I'll buy a share. I want to sell my share to this person who wants to act as the escrow.

And this guy talking about the new products he was releasing and it was all in one like 600 page thread or something like that.

So it's comical, funny. And you know, I was actually invested in the company that paid dividends in Bitcoin on the blockchain every week based off of it based off of the real profit it was making, but it was a it was a rapidly declining dividend until it eventually had zero.

We do the same tomer. So for we're actually going through different structure now for capital, but for our investors, we pay a monthly distribution in Bitcoin directly to wallets.

I think a lot of guys are doing that again. Sure, but you have a website and you have a real name.

Yeah, we have a very limited website. We're not trying to get like public.

Eric, were you fried cat? I think you might have been fried cat.

You know, they called me Bert Kitty. You know, that was the nickname, but you know, yeah.

Websites are pretty necessary these days to them. Or did they ever build a website?

No, he never did. I mean, that's part of the and then eventually he disappeared and there's there's rumors as to what happened.

I can't even remember what they are. So I'm not going to speculate on them.

But I think you would find it fascinating to research the history of this given that you're in.

Then you're in Bitcoin mining that you are paying Bitcoin dividends like this goes.

This goes way back to the very first ASIC minor company called ASIC minor.

So maybe if you want to talk about it offline, we could browse the website together or something.

I could point you because I don't know that anybody's written a history.

There are people who know the history far better than I do. Like I was.

I was late to come in and I was quick to get out.

So I didn't follow the whole story, but it was all part of my education and part of my price of learning about Bitcoin.

Yeah, I'd love to, man. That'd be fun.

Fred, I saw you coming off, Mike.

Yeah. So the only thing I want to say is from a power law perspective, the relationship between hash rate is even more strong than the relationship of Bitcoin price.

And the problem with Bitcoin mining is you're facing this power law at the 10 power or the 11 power, almost the 12 power.

So basically, the hash rate is increasing with the 12th power of time.

And so trying to fight that is just insane, right?

You know, to kind of tell us point about, you know, the hash rate increasing every other week or something.

You're fighting, you're fighting physics here, you know, and, you know, it's not just a bunch of pronouncements or we're going to minecast or any of that stuff that's going to, that's going to get you out of the physics.

You know, you, you got gravity working against you, I think.

And you've got over investment in the, in the, in the area that's just.

For whatever reason, people feel more comfortable putting money into miners than they do into Bitcoin, which, you know, I, it just.

It's that cast.

I've done a little bit of mining myself. I just.

Yeah.

Yeah, I think it's a fiat world mindset, right? Like I just feel like I want to invest in something physical, right?

They have plants, you know, they got electricity, they got power contracts, that's defensible.

So I think there's a lot of the tax write offs and depreciation.

Yeah, and they just can't, I think again, it goes back to Tom or Tom or saying is, look, Bitcoin is so simple, but it's really hard to accept the fact that it's so simple, right?

It's really hard to accept the fact, you know, look, I know Brock Pierce.

I'm not going to say he blocks a close friend of mine, but he's in acquaintance. I know him, right?

And I remember meeting with him in early 2013 in a piece of joint in Santa Monica and I said, what's next? And he's like Bitcoin Fred.

And I'm like, what do you mean like buying Bitcoin? He goes, yeah, you know, buying a, you know, investing in Bitcoin companies.

And I was like, great, you know, I own a little bit of it, but like you're going to go really long Bitcoin.

Well, had he done that, he would make far more money than, you know, starting EOS and investing in, you know, hundreds of these altcoins along the way, you know.

Even though EOS was, you know, a major success for him, you know, he made over $100 million on it.

He would have made far more just by just keeping to his Bitcoin, you know, February of 2013, you know, at a hundred bucks.

And, you know, that always, it really is simple. You're supposed to buy it. If you borrow against it, you're supposed to take absolute minimal leverage so you never ever have to sweat about a margin call.

And you got to hold it and you got to not trade it and you got to not sell it like Fred Thiel is doing at marathon right now.

You know, selling it, timing it, all that stuff will not work out. So, you know, that's the lesson. And I think Thomas Wright, there, there was no shortcuts to the, you know, I'm going to decrease the volatility.

I'm going to decrease the pain. I'm going to wait it out. I'm going to get back in when the war is ending. Well, that kind of stuff doesn't work.

Yeah, Dom was wondering why you didn't invite him to that pizza joint party. He would have liked to have gotten some Bitcoin back then.

And I got to tell you, you know, I just was remembering back in, you know, early 2016, I remember, you know, I had a, I had a Bitcoin event in my, in my, I had big kind of workspace in Santa Monica.

And I had a, you know, I said, you know, I'll invite some Bitcoiners and crypto people because that seems to be heating up a little bit like it was like April 2016.

And, and you know, I remember I was talking to Brock just about that and it said, what do you think? I said, this stuff seems to be hitting.

And he goes, nah, it's more of a sell than a buy right now. You probably short it.

And so I mean, the timing of this stuff is impossible. It's just not possible. It's like, you can't trend it. You can't think, well, a liquidity or this or that.

You really have to resign yourself to the fact that you will not be able to time Bitcoin.

And, and I, I don't know, I don't know how to tell everybody else this who's not, who's been in it for, you know, a year or two.

But I think anybody who's been in it for a long time and survived the reason they survived is they didn't trade.

And that's it. And so you know, I kind of made a funny post today. I said, how do you get to one full Bitcoin?

And the answer is you start with two and you start trading. And if you want to get there faster, you take Garrett Soloway's trading course.

And it'll get you to one Bitcoin even faster.

Or you die. You know, for people to do the same post that was like, how do you get to one Bitcoin?

And I was so tempted to make a similar joke. It was start with two and trade your way down to one.

It's like the wine business. How do you make a million dollars in the wine business? You start with a billion. I mean, you can't trade this stuff.

Like, I don't understand how many people, how many times do we have to tell people there are no successful Bitcoin traders.

None. I mean, I know none. There are none. You know, like, you know, Willie Wu is, you know, with this trading cycle, he's out of Bitcoin right now.

You know, everybody, every single person who's made, let's call it seven figures in Bitcoin, every single one of them has bought and hold held.

That's it. There are no trading success stories at all. You know, I like to say Fred, the best piece of financial advice I've ever gotten in my life was just four letters.

And it wasn't even spelled correctly. It was H O D L. That's, that's it. One drunk guy beat all the financial advice of all the experts in the space.

Yeah, but don't tell me you're going to say perp.

P E R P.

But the, the, the, the huddle theory doesn't fit into, you know, culture, right?

Like culture has to always, always push the limits. The, the boredom, the human nature, human nature is always designed to be.

We've been programmed since the moment we were born to be busy, right? To be, you have to be, you have to be doing something all the time.

You've got something sitting there and we, but, you know, everything we always need more of everything. And it's, it's, it's a counter cultural movement to just have the patience to buy and hold something for a decade.

That actually is the challenge. That challenge is almost impossible for most people, especially those who are on social media listening to people who say they make money trading Bitcoin, but have never been audited and don't show screenshots of trades or holdings over a long period of time.

It is the hardest thing for people to do is to do nothing.

Is to just earn fiat, convert fiat into Bitcoin gold silver, let it sit there and keep working and keep earning and keep putting money in the bank.

It really is that simple to do, but everyone wants to get a little bit more, you know, there's always what, there's always one extra piece of candy at the bottom of the bag they got to grab.

It's, it's just fascinating to watch that people cannot, cannot stop themselves from trying to, to get an extra one or two percent. It's fascinating.

It's very difficult for David Sacks. He said to sell all your Bitcoin and pick up some towel over to you, Dave, and oh, Chad, your hands up too.

Yeah, so I'm sorry, go ahead, Chad, because I may, I tend to go on for a while on this topic.

Thanks, Dave. I've been one asked Fred the question about the cost of production power laws. Fred, have you had done any work there specifically regarding the cost of production power laws?

Yeah, I did a little bit. But look, I mean, the basically look that I think the way it works is you have Moore's law on top of the power law, right?

So, you know, and sort of I've had that discussion with the Giovanni too, right, which is, you know, Moore's law, which is sort of this doubling every two years and on top of the power law gets you more or less to where we are with the, you know,

with a, you know, a 12th power with 98% R square to, by the way, 98% R square, like it, this is not random, you know, and if you think that, you know, Bitcoin going from 1 million, Bitcoin went up 1 million X, right, since 2010, it went from 10 cents to 100,000, order of magnitude, right?

But it went up a million X, I think mining, the hash rate has gone up a trillion X. So literally it has gone up 1 trillion X since 2010.

So I just like, you're not going to, you're not going to, this is a short term gain, you're basically going to, you're, your mining rigs are going to be obsolete in four years.

You're going to be worth zero, more or less. So this is just what can you do between one year and four years, that's it, and you're going to be, have to sell all your Bitcoin.

So it's not even like a Bitcoin, it's not even a, you're not betting on Bitcoin by betting on a Bitcoin miner, you're just betting on them to survive this, this gauntlet that is in front of them, which I just think it's one of the worst bets on the planet.

And especially when you contrast the Bitcoin, which is one of the, or the best in my opinion, the best bet on the planet. So you have the worst competing with the best.

So I agree with that in many respects. I think that this topic about trading is a fascinating one.

I mean, you're talking to someone just for those who don't know, I literally ran, started actually two sigma securities who business is taking the money, because you know, the data is the data, most active retail traders lose money.

Or they make less money than they would if they just bought and, you know, and stuck to their investment thesis. But it is human nature. Eric is 100% correct. That's the way the world works.

The thing that's interesting here is there are traders who do make money trading Bitcoin.

They're ones who don't spend their time and their mouths telling you about it because they keep to themselves. They have very, you know, disciplined approaches using algorithms that make sense that they can continue to stack sats to the extent that they told anybody how they were doing it, they would make less money.

I'll tell you guys a story. It's an interesting one because it's in my book, actually, that I'm writing, make it very quick. I was running stat arb vendor came to us with a system for evaluating equity analysts who is called star mine, actually, and we studied it and we looked and we said, oh, yeah, this will improve our value model will make more money if we use it.

We did it quickly. I told the analyst who had built it just keep watching this because my guess is within six months, the signal will have no value anymore. And then probably by eight months, it'll be negative value. And he said, why do you say that I said because they're actively selling to people.

And the more people that use it, the more diluted it gets and eventually it becomes it will tell you to make trades that are losing trades by the time you take transaction costs into account.

So because of that, you should understand, by the way, that's exactly what happened. Literally, the math was exactly as I expected. I don't remember if I was off by a month or two, but you get the gist.

The fact is that if people are trying to sell you on their Bitcoin signals on what they're doing, they're doing it for precisely one reason to monetize your money or to monetize you.

Now there's only two ways they can monetize you monetize you number one, they do a trade first, then tell you their followers to do a trade, their followers push the price in their direction, they get out and leave their followers holding the bag.

And that works for a while until people realize what they're doing or two, they sell subscriptions or monetize attention based on what they're saying.

And that generally are people who have no audited processes who aren't necessarily making money.

The ones who do make money are the ones who aren't telling you how and for everyone who tries, probably 10 will fail.

So I think it's important to understand that nuance because when you say nobody's making money, I know that's not true because I know of people who have done it.

But I also know that you don't know those people.

You know, Dave, you're completely look, I was part of the bond arbitrage desk at Solomon back in the day.

And so I was there from 1986, I was right before you joined.

So I was there.

Yeah.

That's why I was wondering.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

So I know some of the people.

So I worked for Maryweather, you know.

And so I was part of that group, the Liars poker group.

But listen, when I joined, I have a, you know, PhD.

And, you know, and they hired me because everybody in the group had PhDs except for John Maryweather, okay?

Pretty much.

Like they're all MIT.

We had one guy from Stanford and most of them from MIT, right?

One from LSC.

But basically, you know, when I joined, I was like, I got all this stuff.

This really great math that I can write a paper on, you know, two factor analysis.

I remember they took me to the corner and they said, Fred, you're not publishing any of this stuff while you're here.

You're paid to trade, not to publish.

We don't show what we do.

So yeah, I believe they agree.

Well, I just hope once Bitcoin gets to a million, like your book says, Fred, that a dayble by all of us red bow ties.

Because he's looking pretty sharp there.

Yeah, I actually really like that picture.

You know, it's funny.

It was, I almost never take selfies, but we went to this charity event at Mar-a-Lago for veteran mental health.

And I found myself, I was, I was, I was waiting for my wife to use the restroom.

And I was, I found myself standing in front of this, this, you know, picture of a decoration of independence with Ben Franklin's, you know, cut out.

And I said, this is a great place.

And so yeah, but it's, it's trying to, you know, trying to put lipstick on a pig as it were.

There's no doubt.

Let's hit puppy and then Dr. Beeper.

Hey, what's going on guys?

Uh, yes, and it's going to see Fred up here with what I first heard about power.

Well, I had to Google that shit or Grocket as they say now.

And Bitcoin has been so interesting.

And you know, we just crossed over 20 million mind.

It's going to take the last million Bitcoin 114 years.

And you're trying to figure this stuff out.

Is it they're just to buy and hold because yeah, if you've been here and tried to trade your way out of this.

Uh, you're pretty much correct.

And it's interesting to see because they get down to the power law on something that grows organically, a city, the notebook effect.

And where it's going Bitcoin is, it's just relentless.

TikTok next block.

Um, we're building things on it.

And you're seeing the systems that try to build upon it.

And they just get crushed.

So I guess I maybe it's a question for Fred or anyone else is.

Is it a pure power law?

It is mathematics that just keeps going.

And where does it end?

Because there's nothing more valuable than something that you know.

It up and to the right and sailor said this.

Anything that goes up and down in relation to.

Um, you know, that hot crazy girlfriend called fiat.

Uh, that's one thing.

This thing just keeps going in a way.

Is it is the purest power law thing ever?

Yeah, it is a pure power law.

And you know, I think Dan Morehead from Ventera said it best.

He's like, look, we watch this thing.

Go up four orders of magnitude.

I think it's at four under Ventera, right?

Maybe five.

And he goes, I definitely think it's going to continue along these lines and.

And go up another order of magnitude, right?

Another 10x.

So, you know, I think people thinking that Bitcoin somehow is going to stop here.

And 100,000 was, you know, more or less it.

We go from 10 cents to 100,000 in 10 years.

Sorry, in 16 years along a very, very good power law.

And not just in Bitcoin price, but in adoption and actually everything.

And you think that that's just a fluke.

I don't think so.

I think for sure we're going to continue this route now beyond 10x.

Yeah, who knows, right?

You know, we might, we might be hitting some limits at some point.

We're not, we're not hitting any limits now.

We're just, we're just, we're just starting, we have, you know,

a tradfi has less than overall way less than 1% allocation to Bitcoin.

You know, even though Bitcoin is, you know, about, let's call it, about 1% of the pie right now.

You know, we're a little less than 1%.

But, but tradfi doesn't own that 1%.

You know, it's guys like Tomer who own that 1%, right?

Mainly, right?

You know, the ETFs only own 10%.

ETFs and MSTR collectively own 10% of the Bitcoin.

So we are so far away from any kind of limits on growth on this power law.

That I just think the power law is going to completely grow for at least another 10 years and another 10x.

Now, good.

Hey Fred, when you say it's going to grow, it's not going to round out like you see in the charts.

It's going to steepen.

Maybe.

No, I don't think it's going to steepen or round out.

I mean, look, first of all, here's the one of the problems that you got to look at log log charts.

Okay.

You cannot look at log with, you know, time versus log price.

That doesn't work, right?

Because you're noticing something in those charts, which is just the power law nature in which is like,

oh, it looks like a fading.

No, that's the power law.

Because yeah, the growth is the growth is decreasing, right?

We had much higher growth, you know, in 2017 than we do now.

You know, we're on a much slower growth curve.

But on a log log basis, the growth is very consistent, right?

So, you know, do we think that it's going to hyper go, break that, you know, trend massively to the upside?

I don't think so.

I don't think so.

Do I think it's going to massively break to the downside?

I also don't think so.

So I think it will roughly be in that power law range for the next 10 years.

And, you know, obviously, you know, you can't trade it, you know, and it doesn't,

it doesn't help you.

You're going to still have these 50 percent, even 70 percent declines potentially.

No problem.

I would say, if this is it, it wasn't so bad.

That's kind of what I would say.

But Fred, why can't you trade it if you're looking into power law and it hits the lower bound?

That would obviously be a buy signal.

And if it hits the upper bound, that would potentially be a sell signal.

Why wouldn't that simple strategy work?

Cap gains?

Well, yeah.

So, okay.

So, to some extent, that does make sense, right?

So, the buying part of it at the lower end makes sense.

The problem is there's no real upper end to this stuff, right?

So, you know, you're in a trend on the log-log basis where on the way down, one standard deviation is sort of you down 50 percent from the trend, right?

On the way up, you know, one standard deviation is 2x from the trend, right?

So, you know, but it has gone four standard deviations, even, I'm sorry, it has gone 4x, 2 standard deviations, or even 8x, 3 standard deviations away from the trend.

So, you know, yeah, you can sell a little bit at 2x and buy back at 0.5x.

And I've actually run those numbers, right?

So, what if you did that, right, for the actual stuff?

Would you be ahead?

Really only marginally.

We're really, very marginally and not attacks.

So, you can run those numbers.

It actually doesn't increase.

And also, if Bitcoin is a power law and is doing these things, you don't need to, right?

Because you're going to 10x your returns over the next 10 years.

Now, could you 13x those returns?

Yeah, you probably could.

You can also 13x with them just by using a little bit of leverage, right?

Which is what MSCR is.

So, you know, I just sort of think there's no need to reach.

There's no need to do, you know, the 2 sigma quantitative analysis trying to find every little thing.

Because we've got this opportunity to make a tremendous return.

And the only thing that matters ultimately is the total return, right?

Do you agree, Puncher?

The only thing that matters.

So, if 10x is not good enough for you, well, you're in the wrong business, right?

I think.

You're not in business.

You're not in business.

You're just sort of, you're on the wrong planet, right?

And I see all these young people like, yeah, Bitcoin is like, and I'm like,

it could go to 10x.

There's people like, yeah, it's not going to do it for me, man.

Like, you know, like I got, you know, I got bills to pay.

I need something that goes more than 10x.

You know, I needed to go 10x or one year, you know, got any of those red.

And I'm like, no, because I'm sort of looking at spx 6,900, mean point.

I think it's going to overtake the stock market.

Okay.

Well, have fun.

I'm also not confident I could be right twice, both selling and then buying back.

Like that would scare me.

Well, the one, one pithy comment I'll make is there is a reason that people have always said

lottery's are a tax on the poor.

And so if you think about meme coins and all the other crap that people buy,

it's literally the same thing.

It's the pursuit of lottery tickets.

You know, they've been making sitcoms about this since there was a TV,

since, you know, black and white TV shows, the honeymooners was a classic.

But it's just.

Can I have a comment before I get pulled in?

Wait, what just happened?

Did you not hear?

Can I have a couple of?

Yeah.

Can you let Dave finish?

Dave's in the middle of something.

I finished that.

Oh, I literally.

Sorry.

If that game culture, you know, is is is something that is different than investing.

And it's exactly what Fred always preaches.

And he's right.

But that's the reason.

Yeah.

One hundred.

Dave, I used to work.

I said this before.

I used to work for a bookie back in the days.

And he told me something that's really always held true.

He goes, how do you know it's a bad bet?

I said, I don't know.

He goes, they're offering it to you.

That's right.

My grandfather was a bookie.

And I knew what a big was or who stands for a big risk for those who don't know.

Uh, when I was three.

So yeah, no, I, I, I, I get this joke.

Trust me.

Yeah, I love reading books.

Hey, doctor, you're up.

Thank you, Terrence.

I just had a couple of comments.

One is, I think that we all are probably big, quite next season, including me.

We just want to huddle, knock the shell and maybe borrow it.

And you can borrow it like maybe around five percent or some of the brokerage accounts.

But the question is, wherever MFDR or Sailor says, I want to buy a portal and not sell ever.

People have issues with that.

They also have issue when he buys on the top.

We all are guilty of buying on the top, but also on the bottom.

So that's one of my comments that I have to say and I'll, um, I'll drop down.

Thank you.

I think he's saying that for a couple of reasons.

Just, first of all, just to teach people first and foremost that it's a story of value.

But also because he's selling products where you don't have to sell it.

But, you know, people interact with Bitcoin, just like they do any currency or money.

Um, it's a, it's a personal choice.

You know, if you're using it as your money, you should be spending it.

And some of it, I think, is semantics where, you know, as Bitcoiners, we do believe in spending our Bitcoin.

But not necessarily selling it because if you sell it, what are you selling it for?

You're just selling it for dollars.

So why are you in dollars?

And I suspect that's kind of what he's trying to get at.

And it's also just another good one of his memes that does encourage engagement and makes people think about how do you want to,

how do you want to interact with Bitcoin in your life?

Do you want to borrow off of it?

Do you want to spend it?

Should you just say, but should you just hustle and earn more dollars to pay your bills at the moment?

You know, Gresham's law.

Um, so it's definitely personal.

Here's what you can say about sailor.

Okay, the guy comes in is every, I remember it because he's coming out of, uh, we're coming out of COVID, all this stuff.

And any, the narrative was really, um, my money is on a melting ice cube.

And look, I look, I don't get everyone is a sovereign individual here by Bitcoin, trade it, sell it, whatever.

That's up to you.

Um, I will say this for him and full disclosure.

I don't have MSCR or striped or, I don't have any of those products.

I just simply buy and hold Bitcoin.

That's it.

He's done this.

He announces everything he does.

And that's what the funny part is.

Everyone to, I mean, the hate to me is, is actually pretty funny.

They hated me at 30, 40, 50,000, 60,000.

120,000.

Look at this retard by more Bitcoin.

And that was, but there this relentless.

I don't know where he stores it.

I don't care because guess what?

That guy's got a billion dollars.

He's got three, four percent now of the total supply.

So yeah, kudos to a man because he just shows what you do.

You don't trade.

You accumulate.

Once you learn to accumulate Bitcoin and you sit back, have a low time preference and you'll be fine.

Yeah, I think once you've moved to most of your, you know, monetary value over to Bitcoin,

if it becomes your money, then yeah, you spend it.

But until then, I think his, his advice is solid.

And that's just like real estate or stocks or whatever.

It's like time.

Stay.

Real quick, because here's what's interesting.

What's happening out there?

That's right.

I thought I was talking.

That was strange.

I'll, don't know.

Real quick.

Okay.

Yeah.

Yeah, listen, so here's what's interesting on this.

The narrative of hyper Bitcoinization, everyone's going to be using it.

Man, that was stamped out when it comes to the tax laws for one.

But now what you're realizing is how bad this fiat currency is.

And why am I going to, I don't know, use it when I can borrow against it at a certain rate.

With, with like limited taxes and open ended.

I don't know what to say, but the narrative has changed.

Fiat is meeting Bitcoin in the middle of the road and Bitcoin's winning.

Terrence, you may not want to allow this conversation to go to sailor because it will go to strategy

which leads to stretch and then Fred's gone.

We lost Fred.

But along the lines of what Dave was saying and Fred was saying,

there are people out there straight up that buy $10 in lottery tickets a week.

And if you tell them $10 in Bitcoin will 10X over 10 years, they prefer the lottery ticket.

They'll tell you straight up to your face.

They'll go, nope, that's not going to do anything for me.

And you can show them the numbers and you go, but you could leave your, your kid a huge amount of money

that they could start a business with.

They could do it. Yeah, you may not be, you know, a millionaire, but there's a bunch of them.

And I'd say the majority, they prefer the $10 lottery ticket on the chance as crazy as it is

to $10 in Bitcoin per week over 10 years, which could compound at a pretty amazing rate as we know.

Yeah, they view it as some kind of get rich quick scheme.

And when they realize that it's not, they get disappointed.

And I don't know if you saw there was a post today, someone posted, oh, hey, with four Bitcoin,

I can't retire off a four Bitcoin. This is bullshit.

Just the ludicrousness of that, you know, it's, it's just saving what you've already done.

You do have to contribute to society. You have to add value.

And you can contain it better with Bitcoin, but it's not a get rich quick scheme.

The most of the lottery people, that's what they want.

It's too solid and responsible to just contain what you've already contributed.

Well, to that, to that point, Terrence, I'm going to, I'm going to play devil's advocate on the lottery side with these guys

because I'm thinking about it, okay, so if I had $10 and I could either save it,

and then I'm promised $100 and 10 years.

Like, first of all, what is $100 going to do for me now?

Second of all, what is $100 going to be doing for me in 10 years?

Like, with the rate of inflation, even the past five years, like $100 to me right now is nothing.

And so I think that it is an irresponsible thing to do, but part of me feels like, you know,

that there's so little hope in the US dollar to begin with.

Like, why would I, why would I save that? Why would I put that away?

I think because it's almost a 100% chance that you are losing in a lot of,

like the odds of you winning the lottery are mostly not increased by buying a ticket.

They barely increased by buying a ticket. They're almost the same.

But this is a good point because this is how families, when you hear about like,

you know, the Rockefellers, somewhere along the line, someone in a family lineage said,

I'm just going to leave more than what I had.

And then they teach them about compounding and saving.

And then the next person says, you have to continue this.

Leave more than you had.

And over a century, you know, family's rise.

Of course, there's a lot more explosive actions taken and gains.

It's not as simple as that. But that mentality reigns true.

And you know, everyone sees someone from a very wealthy family and thinks, oh, you know,

someone got lucky and struck oil.

But there is a very specific point if you study any lineage where someone said,

I'm simply going to take small gains.

And I'm going to leave the next generation more than I had.

And that's all I'm going to do.

And, you know, next generation has it from there.

You know what's funny on that one? It's so true.

And the other thing that's true is when the third generation that's all gone.

The one person that built and sacrificed created something for the third generation.

This stuff is just gone.

And you know what's interesting to me is when you put a price value, a dollar value on Bitcoin.

The one thing you never hear talked about enough.

In my mind, anyway, is the premium value of Bitcoin as value outside of this system.

Everyone's watching what unfolds in Iran.

You can blame who you want. The fact is you can have value outside of this system.

You're looking down the barrel of the CBDC through UBI, where and how and what you spend your value on.

And Bitcoin in and of itself has a premium on it.

Just for the fact that it is, it is something that we have developed here.

Yeah, I know, look, look, look at all those free tarps on stage here with an avatar.

There's a value of something that we can exchange with each other.

It is the perfect medium for a black market economy of a future.

There's a value in that that no one talks about enough, I think.

Cosmos, the only retard with the.

Yeah, I was going to say I'm the only retard up here.

Yeah, but speaking of retards, let's go to Tommy Boy.

Yeah, it's interesting conversation. You know, we talk a lot about over the past year, you know, this fourth turning first turning that there's a there's a lie that sits in today's culture that manifests really negatively with the lottery crowd.

And that lie is that you should work.

I have consistently to build up a pile of assets and then quit.

And we use the term retirement and then live off that pile.

And so when people are sitting there and they say I have $1,000 and you're going to tend exit.

They say, well, 10, a 10,000 dollar pile doesn't do anything for me.

In that vector of I need to quit, and stop.

I think what's going to emerge in our society is going to have to be.

One, where everyone contributes in some shape or form, and it's less about living off

your assets, and more about your assets should give you the freedom to contribute in a

way that you find suitable.

Yeah, that's the key.

People's life sucks if they don't contribute.

If they just sit there and live off their pile, they're unhappy, and I know lots of people

who fall into that category, and I'm sure most of you do as well.

The more you contribute, the more you stay alive and the longer you live, the better your

life is.

So, the message that I would give people who are focused too much on the 10X lottery

is, first of all, the fucking math is terrible, but a 10X return, if you peel off a portion

of your contribution every cycle, and getting 10X returns, it increases your freedom to

spend your time the way you want.

But this idea that people should retire, I mean, my view is, you should never retire.

You should just change what you do and how you contribute to the society around you.

And that doesn't mean taking a job for 40 hours a week, blowing your brains out in a queue.

It just means you have to figure out what that means.

And the more assets you have, the more choices that you have on what that contribution vector

is.

Yeah, the people that I've talked to about this, retirement is kind of worth it saying,

I can quit my bullshit job where I literally don't contribute anything.

I'm kind of in like adult daycare to go do something that is actually like meaningful

to the world, but that isn't like caught up in whatever crony capitalism we've got going

on right now that is actually like somewhat meaningful, you know.

So no, I totally agree with you, Thomas.

Well, you know it, like people say, I'm just like the phrases that people use, I'm saving

up for retirement, I mean, just unpack that phrase and it's unhealthy, it's an unhealthy

phrase.

I deal with it, you know, in my government job, you know, a lot of the people in the, you

know, that I have dominion over in terms of leadership, but I look at the employees and

they're like, I just need this money more years of service so my pension so I can retire

and go do what?

I said, what the hell are you going to go do?

Remember, I remember talking to the chief of police and I'm like, what are you going

to do?

You're going to play golf and fish all day?

I mean, that's boring.

And that's kind of what he did.

He retired and he does that and he's fucking miserable.

You know, I'm like, it wasn't a heavy lift to stay as a chief of police, you know, he

had something to do.

And I'm not saying he had to continue that forever, but, you know, he could have gone

into.

I don't know.

He could have been a consultant for the film industry, no insurance.

Yeah.

Or, you know, just go into security and, you know, do some security consulting and, you

know, just redefine what you're going to do to contribute so that you have, you have

a purpose when you wake up every morning and the purpose, if the purpose is, I'm going

to chew on my pile of shit that I've accumulated, my assets, then you will be an unhappy person

in my opinion.

Yeah.

You know, Thomas, I've told a lot of these younger folks that come into the fire service.

And for those listening, you know, I'm a member of CalPERS and I ran for CalPERS, the

largest pension in the United States.

You know, 30 years is a long time to bank on a pension with the liabilities that CalPERS

has and the structure of it, which has a lot of cracks.

And I tell them, you know, you guys, you know, being the younger folks have this unreal

asset you're sitting on and it's called time.

And no one else has it.

I don't have it.

A lot of us, other folks don't have it where you can set aside these piles and you can just

forget about them.

And like you said, they're not going to set you free.

They're not going to get you a $10 million house in Bel Air or wherever they sell $10

million houses.

I guess that'd be more like downtown LA or something for the cost of housing.

But it's not going to, it's not going to change your life.

But in 30 years, if you set these piles aside and you have discipline and just forget

them, just pretend like you lost them, you know, if you're going to go to Vegas five times

this year, just go four times, calculate the cost that you would have spent on the fifth

time and put it into an asset that you think will have longevity 30 years from now.

And then pretend like you lost it.

It's gone.

And set it aside, lock it up and, you know, have options.

That's what you want is options to pivot, options to leave work early, do some else and

options in the case of like the craziest thing you're pinching may not be there.

And dial down the hookers.

I mean, they're just so expensive with inflation.

Hookers are cheap, hookers are cheap relative.

You know what's really expensive, the horse and I think the horse, the horse, the horse

of this space can, can attest, wives, they're much more expensive than hookers.

That's Joe Kennedy's thing, you know, like Mary or business, they're, they're, you're not

paying for this sex, you're paying it and to leave, okay, this is how you justify it.

And Dom is hitting on something huge here, time.

And what again, the sovereignty that you allow any other individual here is what they

do and what they call retirement.

Fuck, I don't care, man.

You like motorcycles, I want to fix them, that's fine.

Other people have different things that you want to play golf.

That's great.

It's up like for myself, man, I just like the time to myself to be loved alone, to think

ruminate, communist basis and move forward in that way.

People have different views of what retirement is.

Retirement isn't necessarily just like, remove yourself from the world.

And there's a, there's a movie called The Gambler from 2014 and John Goodman, he tells

it straight out, you know, he's telling me, look, you got, you got two and a half million

dollars.

You know what you do?

Fuck, you, you buy a house.

That is your fortress of fucking solitude.

You get something put in three, five percent backing your pocket to pay taxes by a Japanese

shipbox of a car and then you got fucking money.

Get fucking money and add his retirement.

Bitcoin ultimately is fucking money.

That's all.

You know, fun fact, Bitcoin, Bitcoin's having and Lauren's divorce having are the same

number.

They both had four having's.

I think Lauren's on number five and Bitcoin's on number five.

It's amazing.

We don't have more women in these spaces.

I know.

I'm trying to speak their language right now.

I have a thing for Lauren.

The next time he gets married, he's going to give half up front.

He's just going to get it.

You just go, look, here's half out of the gate.

And then they're like, yeah, it's a much lower price.

Smart.

Hey, Fred, I got a quick question for you.

Are you, is your AI agent doing a lot of your posters at all you still, are you kind

of Jeff Booth?

No, it's just me.

Yeah, I had one doing it.

I did retire it, but I've been playing around.

I've got so many AI cool things that I've developed and amazing things.

So you're just, you're going to believe, you will not believe what I've built today.

I want to say that I think I am, I think I really could be in the wide coding Olympics

if I may say so myself, but I built all kinds of stuff with agents.

And chat, and email, and everything, automating everything, and I'll show it to you very soon.

Do you feel, I had it running as a Chrome plugin for a while, but then I decided, I decided

I was actually, I could actually do it better if I just did it myself.

Well, I'm sure.

Do you feel like a lot of your information is now out in the wild or have you kind of

air-gapped your personal stuff so that the AI can't run with it?

You know what I mean?

People are afraid to once they turn stuff over to an AI, it kind of runs your life.

Well, they're all mistaken, right?

So this is kind of my general view on AI.

Right now, every single person here, almost everybody, what they do is their experience

of AI is you go to a chat GPT or claw.ai, you type something in a box, you get some answers,

you copy and paste it somewhere else, right?

Which is, which is good, it works, right?

Now, the next level is everything that you have, all your data is all connected to AI,

right?

And AI can do stuff for you.

And it doesn't have to do it unprompted, but it can basically prep you for anything

you're doing.

And that could be posting, that could be sending an email to somebody.

So automating the output of AI, it could be making a reservation for you at a hotel.

So automating everything that externally you're going to do, like giving AI power to act,

that's one big thing.

And then the other thing is giving AI actual vision into who you are as opposed to just

a chat session.

So Fred, we should keep going, I would say that, you know, look, a lot of people have

been playing around with Macminis and Claude at OpenClaw, and I think a lot of them are

realizing that that's not working, that's my gut feel.

Everybody, I think every single person I've heard who bought a Macmini and installed OpenClaw

is now going, this did not do what I thought, not enough power, not enough compute.

That's not even that.

No, the problem is, you need an interface to your stuff, you know, you need an interface

to how this AI is going to do it.

You can't just be going in WhatsApp and telling Claude code to do stuff.

You need to have, you just need a UI, you need everything to be managed in a way, which

is why we use apps to begin with.

It also seems like you need that interface to craft, you know, it's not just like a start

and it's off to the races, like it's like the scene in, well, Terence will get too excited

about this, but the scene in ghost where they're molding the clay thing, you got to kind

of shape it and correct it and put, you know, specific instructions, because it's not

going to do well, just, you know, launching it and then set it and forget it.

Yeah.

I mean, a lot of it is, what do you want AI to do for you?

And I think a lot of people have some ideas that are sort of not really well-baked, but

they're like, I'd like to get more X followers, you know?

I got one for you, I got one for you, I'm curious.

What's that?

Okay.

If there was a staffing program and human staffers, are these agents at the point where

it could basically run staffing for a person and just simply the person only verifies the

staffing implementations?

Let's pretend whether it's like a restaurant or is it there yet, where you could have

an AI agent that does staffing for you and you just sign off and say, yep, schedule

looks good.

Well, I don't know, I'm sure part of that's possible now, now, it's not something I'm

not working on staffing restaurants, so, you know, who knows?

But I think we are all going to become incredibly more productive in the next year, in my opinion.

And I think we just saw this with, we saw this with AI, you know, nobody here, none

of us here were really seriously using AI, other than to kind of create a few posts and

viral pictures.

And I feel like in the next year or two, every single person is going to be massively

using AI 24-7, for everything they do, everything, every single thing is going to go through AI.

One of the VCs, Thomas Torgwoods said, he goes, every single thing I do now touches AI,

you know, whether it's buying something at Amazon, whether it's booking a restaurant,

whether it's thinking through a proposal, every single thing you do is going to go through

AI, because it remembers better, it is more professional, it's better thinker than you.

And so if you don't have AI as your kind of copilot in this world, you're dead.

In my opinion, I think what you hit on there is the key thing, the copilot.

Okay, most people want to give this up.

This is the problem with AI.

Everyone talks about the great things that any technology offers, you can go back through,

you know, just read through Jockey Rule, go read through some of these places.

No one wants to talk about what does it take away, what humanity does it take away,

that you is in yourself, a creative side of you.

When you just, people turn the keys over to a driver.

And as he told me so there, as a speaker, this is a great philosophy, Sunday thing that

he does.

Fuck that.

AI is great when it comes to solutions, and it comes even to law, when it comes to things

you got to research, you got to come up with a solution for, however, we got to have

a mindful way of using it as a copilot.

Most people don't have the discipline to do this.

Most people do, they just want everything removed from their life that takes away any

sense of judgment, any sense of responsibility.

They want to hand it over to AI.

So we have to be very careful in how we're using this.

Let me, let me tell you how I'm using it in one of my company, one of my franchises.

And I'm not asking permission from the franchise or because there's a tremendous amount of

resistance from C-sweets in all of this stuff.

They just, they just don't want to let go or they don't want to, I don't know.

I think people in C-sweets primarily just don't want to get fired.

That's their job.

Don't, I don't want to get fired.

So we're doing, I'm a regional developer for a brand in the, um, um, Northwest, Washington

and Oregon.

And basically I have a doctor and I have somebody at the front.

And that front person is supposed to take care of people as they come in and just be nice

and get them what they want and get them, you know, signed up or squared away.

Their other job is to be on the phone.

And when somebody puts in a lead, uh, somebody's got a bad back, we can, we reach out to them.

And they would be on calls with these people.

What AI is taking over all that.

So AI has taken over all of my scheduling, all of my holiday scheduling stuff.

They got all of the calls that go out and SMS, they go out to potential customers.

And it's really good names, um, Claudia or not, not Claudia Gloria.

And she was pretty slow in the beginning.

You could kind of tell it was AI.

If you asked her a weird question that wasn't in her, I guess, her, her knowledge base.

She would maybe give a bad answer.

She's amazing now, like she's, she's pretty much like you're talking to a person.

She can get you scheduled.

She can get it.

If you say, well, maybe and I can kid around this time, we'll open up two spots.

You can either take this one or that one show up.

She sends you paperwork and an SMS.

We're integrating now, uh, I am into, I'm trying to integrate peptides into this concept

nationwide.

I should be the freaking CEO of this company.

I'm doing his job.

But anyway, they're going to have, you know, once, if you want to order your peptides,

you can order them through an SMS that goes out, uh, you get pricing.

You know when it leaves the factory or the compound pharmacy, you know, when it lands,

you know, within an hour, when you can come pick it up at our location and 50 other things

that AI is doing.

And then we're going to roll it out to the rest of the brand and just be like, use it or

don't use it.

We don't give a shit, but we did the work.

And it's taking a tremendous strain off of my staff so that they can be really focused

on the patients when they're in the clinic.

And that's just one way we're using it in, in actual business.

Hunter, does Gloria at least drive fast in the left lane?

She does.

She knows the rule is that you're either passing in the left lane or you're on the right.

I made sure that that was programmed into her.

All right.

Just check.

The party girls were curious.

They just deemed me and this is the battle right now because he's using it to an advantage

and for business.

Absolutely fantastic.

This is what capitalism's all about, right?

Going to maximize profits.

But here's the thing.

Here's the race is what about the rest of humanity?

This is what Goddy said, you know, we don't need math production.

We need production by the masses.

There's a bouncing point of this new technology coming in and the humanity of like, well,

great.

Now we've sent everyone home.

I guess to play, you know, GTA.

I don't know.

There's a bouncing act that needs to be done to minimize the carnage because that's what

we got coming up this carnage.

Yeah.

I don't think you have a choice.

I don't think it's like, oh, what can we do to like stop this?

You know, we don't really have a choice.

So the question is, is not like how do we implement some sort of legislation?

It's like, okay, how are you going to deal with this personally when you are outperformed

by AI in, you know, every aspect of your life, essentially.

And so they're trying to legislate non-integrating with AI.

Like, good luck.

Like you're just going to be overcome by technology and you can legislate all you want.

You're not going to be able to keep up with the efficiencies that are coming your way

and it's a bad plan.

And I don't know if you would want to.

Like, I don't know what the point of saying, hey, look, you know, all these horrible, horrible

jobs that like 90% of people don't want to go to that could be automated very simply

with AI and instead give them an opportunity to create, right?

So I think that, you know, although it is scary, you know, moving into whatever labor

looks like in 10 years because it's going to fundamentally change.

Like the core of what we look at as labor careers, all of the stuff is going to fundamentally

change.

And instead of saying, like, okay, how do we stop that and make it like the question

is, how do we deal with that?

As a fundamental crisis of humanity is going to decide what is the value of humanity outside

of labor?

Like, that's kind of what we have to come to terms about.

Hey, do you remember we told everyone learned to code, hey, learned to code, they're out

of jobs now.

Those guys are out of jobs right now, learned to code and they're already out of the job.

And this is exactly it.

You know, I had this conversation, Pubby, I had this conversation with Chatsy BT, which

jobs are absolutely going to be safe.

And it's like first category, like trades, right?

Like plum, because you can't call Chatsy BT at 2 a.m. when your pipe's break, right?

Like that does not work.

So trades, you know, we got to like at least 10 years before the robots kind of can do the

plumbing, at least 10.

I don't know.

Have you seen the door to ashes now offering people money to record themselves like doing

the dishes, loading the dishwasher, like it's part of their payment, they can get paid

to record themselves doing that to program robotics.

It's crazy.

So I, I don't know, 10 years, yeah, maybe, maybe sooner.

Well, that's one thing.

And then the other thing is said, because a lot of people, they call them vibe jobs.

And I was like, vibe jobs is like, yeah, like bartenders, air cutters, and it goes

not something that the AI couldn't do, but the AI, you probably want to get your hair

cut by humans so you can have small talk with the barber, or you probably want you go

to a bartender saying, hey, what's, what's, what's cooking, you know, so basically providing

conversation to humans and feedback to humans, that's going to be the big job, of course,

other than that.

Right.

Did you get dentistry as being infected?

I think it was a root canal or a crown or something, usually takes two and a half hours

in the robotics, we're doing, with the AI, we're doing it in like 15 minutes.

Crazy.

Well, yeah, that's, that's, that doesn't look, I don't go to a dentist for conversation.

I don't really love the one-way conversation with the dentist like, hey Fred, that's the

business.

They removed a, not a robot, removed a gallbladder, Johns Hopkins, all on its own.

Yeah, but he replaced it with a, with a spring and then works so well, but the work

on it.

Well, the thing is, these white collar guys who, you know, have been sitting around corporate

America doing TPS reports and look, if you're 50 and you're doing the TPS reports and you're

making 200 grand in some firm, you're, you're probably beyond the event horizon of going

to learn a trade.

Those are the jobs that I just see as just completely teed up and those lives and, and

probably they're living by on their means, right?

If you're making 300 grand, you probably have the big mansion, you probably have the kids

in private school, you got a lot of shit going on, you're, you're, you're living large

and you might get wrecked, you're, you're probably going to get wrecked, and what are they

going to do?

That's kind of the issue that I see on the, on the near to medium term.

Well, they get, what, the issue is they're going to get wrecked, puncher, I think you just

defined it.

They're going to get wrecked.

They're going to lose their house.

They're not going to be able to pay the mortgage.

They're going to lose their lifestyle and the best thing that they're going to do, the

best chance that they have for any kind of job is taking care of an 80 year old or a 90

year old.

And my mother's in, in, in, you know, looking for somebody.

So if you, if, if anybody hears and fits the, the profile and lives in Boston, yeah.

You want to do daycare for a 90 year old woman?

Go ahead.

The window's not closed here for those people if they have the right attitude and the

attitude.

You got to have, you got to have both.

And the, if you're, if you're, if you're retarded, it's, you're done.

It doesn't matter.

But if you're on the, the top side of the bell curve and you have the right attitude,

there's no reason why you can power up study and, and be the agent of change.

Because the agents of change are going to make some money over the next few years.

This isn't going to happen in, in a flash.

It's going to happen over the course of pick a timeframe to, we'll say you're that guy

time to say that 300,000 dollar year TPS report guy has been holding on the corporate rope.

You know, but he's really providing not a lot of value.

He's just been there and he's managing a bunch of people.

What, what would you say to him today?

I would say, think of the target architecture of the organization that you're working

in, giving where the technology is going and help facilitate that change.

Because I, I'm doing the consulting as a practitioner to try to bring these changes in.

And there's a tremendous amount of institutional friction that you can overcome

with a better version of Claude or chat to BT or a better technology, right?

It is human change capital.

It is organizational change.

It's dealing with all kinds of things around process redesign.

These are analog skills, but you need to understand where things are going

and be the facilitator of that.

So if I'm in that TPS report cube monkey, I would say what needs to change around here?

And I'm going to be the person in the agent to make that change happen and, and join the team

that is trying to make it happen.

And I, if you, and what I tell people when we go into organizations is if you do that,

you will double your compensation in three years.

Because once you learn how to do it, you now have the experience to do it again and again.

And you become very valuable to the ecosystem.

Now, how long you'll be able to double?

I don't know because the, the world's changing so, so fast.

The technology is, is even outstripping like my paradigm of how fast it is.

What is slower than most people think is the adoption levels because of the friction that I spoke of.

You're hitting on something really good here, the speed of it, the speed is astounding.

Even just a year and a half, two years ago, AI would come up sometimes in conversation,

but it wasn't like a regular thing.

And you're looking out the speed of adoption and people are like, oh, yeah, I could get rid of this.

This many people, five, six, eight from my organization already.

Okay, the speed is coming up of like Jesus.

You're looking at someone's like, yeah, they can answer phone calls.

They just wiped out the entirety of India that used to take English lessons in the Midwest.

They would fly people to India for call centers because they had less of an accent than anyone else.

That was a whole nother group being paid.

And looking at this now, the speed at which is is happening is on parallel.

Okay, I took, I think it's the last one to take a legit typing class paper,

white out, all of that.

And the next year we're on Apple 2 PEs.

That was it, man.

It was all of a sudden you're in this age.

Now the speed at which is is happening.

Yeah, I'm going to be 55 next year here.

I don't have time to learn to be a plumber.

Here we are.

The TPS report person, it's a funny pejorative because of the movie reference.

But what that person is in middle management is they sit between upper management

that is making decisions and the workers who are actually doing shit.

And they have people skills.

God damn it.

I take the facts to, you know, but, you know, but it's a real thing.

So think of like a finance person.

It's doing book close reconciliation, you know, they're taking the job.

Maybe they're processing all the accruals, getting the documentation and posting that

and journalizing that for book close is a monthly job.

And then they do business in between.

And you know, there's lots of jobs like that.

It could be think of an auditor, you know, you know, there's the analysis of the audit.

But most of the audit work is organizing the data, processing it and getting into a format

for the, for the analysis.

But all these people are sitting middle management.

They, they're, they're human middleware.

And by, by that I mean, they're processing information at the lowest levels of new organization,

packaging it up, it could come from multiple places.

It's highly ambiguous needs to be adjusted.

And then presenting that to upper management for making decisions.

Now, what's, what's the sweet spot here?

The sweet spot is to replace human middleware with software.

Now, what stopped us from doing that 10 years ago was the cost of creating software,

software middleware to replace human middleware was highly expensive because it was bespoke.

And you needed to restructure the data and have data scientists come in and structure the data

so that the software could process it.

Today, the AI can take highly unstructured data and process it and rationalize it through

the middleware layer without having it to be done at the API layer.

It's a big, it's a big fucking deal.

And all of a sudden, now we can change things very rapidly.

And so once I retake the human middleware and replace it with software middleware,

the next thing that happens is I can replace downstream and then I can replace upstream and

go full end to end decentralized autonomous organizations.

So it's not the question here because this is very important.

When you're using the phrase like human middleware versus a useless eater from the world

economic forum, how do you replace a humanity of 8 billion with something that is so

quickly developing that can replace the livelihood?

This is actually the this is the crux of the collection really.

I don't have an answer for you know what's the wage the wage level across the entire globe is

probably I'm going to pick a number 70 trillion dollars in the global economy.

That's roughly a dated McKinsey number.

How much of that 70 trillion of labor gets and that's everything from nurses to

cube monkeys doing the TPS report?

How much of that can be eliminated?

Let's just be conservative and say 15 or 20 trillion of that.

And it's easily that much.

What are those people going to do?

Now in the past, the pace of change, whether it be from when we went from hunter-gatherers to

agrarian from agrarian to industrial, these things happened over a generation over 10, 20,

30, 50 years and people had the ability to adapt some adapt to quicker some not so much but

you know that adaptation takes time because as humans we're biological creatures and we operate

at linear speeds.

What's happening now is we're not automating and mechanizing muscle work where we are

eliminating brain work and that's happening at a much faster pace faster than I think people can

adapt. Now in the short term, I would just tell people if you have the right attitude and

aptitude without speaking before, you have the ability to buy yourself some time.

But if you just fast forward to five or ten years from now and I know the exact window but we

are going to be in a world of hurt if we don't change our systems and that's why over the last

year or so we've talked about UBI as a necessary outcome of what where this is going.

If you listen to Musk and you say every job gets replaced, let's just assume, I mean he speaks

in hyperbolees but let's assume that there's some version of that. We need to have people to have

a purpose in society and they need to be able to sustain a reasonable lifestyle otherwise you're

going to have riots and violence. You know you can't do it so you're going to we're going to have

to come up with some system post-fourth turning here that looks that takes care of this and it's not

just giving people money. In our society it has to do there's many other things that have to

happen for this to work. So and again I think that's the shift to control and trust me I do not have

the answers here absolutely do not. I have I can post the questions and the problems and talk

about what's going on now but to suggest I have the answers would be would be wrong and I would just

say this no one else does either. No one else has a solution. Yeah, Tomor has some good thoughts.

By the way Lauren and Terence I would be co-host but every time I select co-host I can't speak so

Tomor. Yeah I mean I was going to say something like what Thomas finished up with which is it's

really really hard to see but the future is murkier than ever and nobody has the answers

because where the real Titans are shooting for it's not it's not to be the provider of the

services that Thomas is saying you know that involves people will figure out that how to replace

they're thinking three four five moves ahead you know how do you replace the people who are

helping AI replace the people how do you just have AI become ubiquitous in all these things and

they're likely going to succeed at a lot of this stuff which then begs the question which both

Thomas and Povey have brought up it's like where do we find purpose because even going back half

an hour in this conversation to talk about retirement like what if we're all forced to essentially

retire because we can't be competitive in watching this is plumbing you know and anything anything

really at all and everything that we can at least be creative in this AI can't be as hard for

people to find and there's nobody to really pay for it it's a really complicated situation so I

think the future is very very murky the one thing that I this is on a tangent but it's still

related to AI is I'm finding people who are using AI to help them think and write are in a very

I repeated a fair bit about this for people who call me they're you're very much in danger of

becoming completely dependent upon this thing and not knowing what not being able to just

distinguish your thoughts from what this thing has prompted has responded into prompt to you and

so the more you use it especially if you use it to express your thoughts well who's thought

to really being expressed and what do you actually really think because you didn't know

miss until you had the AI write it and it's just you know and I've had arguments with people

and arguments I've had discussions with people who say it's just a tool but you know you don't ask

a hammer to build a house you use it to drive in a nail which is part of building a house or

whatever else you're using a hammer nail for when you tell the tools to do the actual job itself

you're not doing the job tool is and when you say write an essay as an example you know or write a

program you're not writing the program you're not writing the essay compose a thought make a song

the thing is doing the work for you and and especially I found with people who are entering

you field where they're depending entirely on AI to do stuff and they think they're doing it

I think there's a big fallacy there and and they're not actually getting good at the thing

that they think they're doing they're they're just following prompting Tom or did you know Margaret

Kean have you heard her name before sorry what was the last thing our last name is Kean K E A N E

have you heard her from before

sounds a little familiar but it's like I'm not sure yeah so no I bring it up because this is what's

interesting with AI and everything else she was an artist and if you look at the melancholy

pictures of like the people with big eyes you know kids and women her husband had created this

industry based that he said he did this work that this was it in the 70 she went to court because

he basically was taking her artwork she did all the artwork but he was taking credit for it

and it's a it's a rare case and it's interesting because she was the one it wasn't AI she was

one behind it and she actually went into court and painted something to show them she was one

behind this her name is Margaret Kean it's interesting story to me because it shows the people

that are artistic and creative are going to hide behind something at the end of the day the

humanity will come out and prevail I see it as a gap you've got to make it to the other side

and by the way because I'm pretty convinced we've had this conversation that AI agents will be

using Bitcoin as essentially a power token and energy token to transact it might be micro transactions

but you you need to have some you need to get to the other side of where we are today

and the other side being where AI and robotics are working together to do almost everything

and you can almost manifest things into being but the only way you can really play in that

and be a creator in that society I don't know if it's 15 20 30 50 years from now

is if you have those power tokens you have the ability to transact

everybody else is going to kind of be on the outside looking in with no kind of money or no power

to manifest things now everybody's life will get better because things are just going to be manifest

that we're not going to be doing the work we're just going to be the kind of the creators of what

we want manifest but you in that world your life will be much more meaningful if you're a creator

if you have the ability with your power tokens to manifest things into being that are good for

your neighborhood good for your family good for your community or else you're just somebody who's

kind of sitting back and collecting the philanthropy of those who are manifest and that life if

you're just receiving it doesn't seem very meaningful to me if you're actually creating

then that's a meaningful life and in the way you do that is you have Bitcoin and you're

participating in that that kind of AI robotic economy I don't know if that makes sense but it's

the way I'm thinking about it. Blank is strong. Hey, hey, Funture. Hey, I would agree with that.

I think anecdotally like you know I'm at the stage where you know I'm you know middle

management whatever and if you look out across the typical organization I feel like most people

are like middle management and exactly the levels are so overburdened and understaffed that I

feel like with AI now they're going to be freed up to really expand and I think from my perspective

I actually think we're on the cost of a really big expansion and hiring boom because I think

that a lot of people and organizations have latent desires that they haven't been able to reach

because they've been so burdened with low staffing levels that now if they can automate some of

these surface level low you know low return compliance tasks and other sorts of garbage bureaucratic

garbage they're going to be able to free up time and labor to actually expand and grow and do

something so I think if you kind of look out at what's going to happen I mean the media horizon

looks like a little bit of turbulence but I feel like once those creative types are able to get

kind of the shackles of bureaucracy off them and actually start having some time and space and

some free budget to do stuff with these AI automation tools I think we're going to see a massive

expansion that's just kind of on the ground observation

yeah I just don't see I just don't see a path where there's not pain to UBI or just a tremendous

amount of control like a centralized authority controlling people giving them food and sustenance

but like you can't go outside your 15-minute city that kind of stuff I think a lot of those ideas

as perverse as they sound then as awful as they sound in my opinion are coming about because

of the people who have thought about you know how do we tackle this problem and I'm not

attributing anything to their motivations other than I I don't want to participate in their

version of the future I want to make sure that I'm a player in that and that I can manifest things

and that I can live the life that I want and I just I see Bitcoin inextricably linked to being

able to do that and you're going to have you think you have a K-shaped economy now I mean holy smokes

as things progress and you're not you you provide no utility because your utility is completely

taken away from robotics and AI all of it what what are you you're literally like you're relying

on the charity of others and then that's your that's your plan and that's that's not a plan

it's sad but I don't I don't see how we get past it and I've thought about it a lot there's

going to be tremendous distress and I think so I agree with you I just think I think we're

underestimating the the value of latent potential in the the stuff that we already have and then

the desires of leadership that want to do something you know like I I think UBI is would be

it may be inevitable but I mean I think that eventually those people would would either get

rolled up in some jobs program or applied to physical labor that you know that you know robots

aren't here yet and it's still unsure if robots can go and you know clear ditches on the highway

or pick up trash in the median or fix roads or you know lay down new drainage ditch and those

things all have to happen we're way way behind on those tasks so I kind of I kind of feel like

this is like a laptop class perspective where people are they're getting in this like technological

doom loop when not you know and losing track of the real world infrastructure and other things

have decayed a great deal and you know Peter Tiel talks about this and how he says that

we entered this big period of malaise where we had so much production in the information world

and all the world of atoms just stagnated and so I think we have this huge backlog that's

going to get really focused on and the push towards the trades is kind of a tell that you know

that's coming and the re-industrialization I mean they're they're rolling out a plan to catch people

as they roll out of these kind of bureaucratic paperwork jobs that are going to get smoked by AI

so my assessment is that like you know the physical infrastructure world and the actual world of

atoms is going to get a huge injection of freed up labor and really if you look at the salaries of

that labor pool they're going to be making twice three maybe four times what they did is you know

middle manager at Starbucks you know programming colored codes for the next Starbucks shop right like

I think that's just around the corner here I just I'm maybe unreasonably optimistic but that's just

perspective my hope you're right because the alternative is just it's not good it's not good for most

people do we sufficiently black pill everybody my my wife will be the shoulders that guy sounds

just like you and it's creeping me out I don't see the resemblance yeah he's made he's actually an AI

replacement for yeah your new replacement Thomas I think I would just say it is it is a bit of a

black pill people don't want to hear about it to a large extent but um ignoring it's not going

to make it go away and again I would just the most the most the most positivity I can have out of

this is to the extent that people and there are a lot of people out there in our circles who have

the ingredients to be successful here in the next couple of years they should be really encouraged

to do that now what does Bitcoin do to me Bitcoin allows you to contribute now and enjoy later

and it it's almost like that it's time traveling with preservation so I have I have some ability to

contribute now but I wouldn't have the need to consume the benefits of that now because I have

enough to consume but maybe in the future I won't so I I put it in that and it just sits there

in it and it lives through time when I do that with fiat the state robs the contribution that I had

a year ago or five years ago and that's a that's a real that's a real issue and that's

what we should be communicating is the fiat robs your contribution whereas Bitcoin preserves it

and I think it will become evident to people in the next major crisis that we have that could be

upon us as we speak which could be very high inflation and disruption of the system and the

continued loss of trust and the institutions that are set above us in the financial world

we're coming full circle you know I don't think that that's negative or being when we were

talking earlier with Tomor being just negative person I'm trying to tell people look you need

you need to think about these things that are coming and how it affects you personally because

they're coming it's like it's upon us you don't see it yet but um and the for example my kids

might my oldest is 13 years old I am as confident as in anything that he's not going to college

it's just it's a complete and utter waste of time um to spend four years sitting in a classroom

trying to learn from people who like I think I think education could easily be software as a

service and almost free and I think it's going to head that direction but you know to tell my

wife that like she's like well what do you think they're going to go college am I I don't think

he's going to go to college what should he do I think she'd learn and trade and I think you

know I can help him I can I can I'm in a position where I can help finance the business he's got

to come present to me he's got to give me a business plan I'm going to help him not make mistakes

but like that's what I think they should do and my wife's like you're really negative you're

really negative you're bringing everybody down like well I don't know I'm not trying to be negative

I'm trying to be positive I think it's a great opportunity but you have to project forward in time

and space and think about where we're going to be as a society given the avalanche of technology

that's coming our way and deal with it to not deal with it I think that's like just almost

totally irresponsible but again I'm called a doomer and at the end I get kicked under the table

I dinner with friends and told the shut up and talk about whatever well plans for it to like a lot

of those trade jobs are de facto inflation links right like if you're if you're a part of a

team you know building a bridge or something like that your cost structure and your salary and

your takeaways kind of links to the the underlying inflation and commodities associated with that

project so you know if you compare the two tracks right like one track is you go to college you

go into two hundred thousand dollars of debt and then you go up this corporate ladder and you make

another underlying assumption that inflation is going to continue with an accelerated pace once

you start factoring in the legacy corporate you know corporate salary schedule there's no way

in the corporate world you can outrun inflation it's impossible you know if you assume inflation's

at five or six percent a year maybe seven maybe eight or nine or ten you know a year you're not

going to outrun that in a corporate job so as you move up the corporate ladder you're actually just

staying in place for regressing but if you have a job that's linked to an inflationary

an inflation hedge in the trades or farming or food you know just imagine cattle producers right

like if you had the land that you're producing cattle your cash crop is inflation links like

ideally so I mean your salary is going up probably faster and more realistically as a cattle

farmer than you know a corporate middle manager at some ho hum zombie business that's just that

finance on the sock exchange so I think you're right now yeah doesn't make me popular dinner

party so it makes me the the guy who's bringing everybody down it's a hard it's a hard adjustment

right like we're we're basically seeing the undoing of decades of legacy structures like in like

weeks and months I mean most people that you know in the previous two generations that could go

and work in the same place their entire career for 30 years and have a cost of living adjusted

pension I mean that's great that's like like the greatest pinnacle of modern achievement that

I think civilization has ever achieved we're never going back to that like those days are over man

and everybody sees it so I think it's about like you know I think you're doing the right thing I

got small kids so we're gonna have to do that transition at some point too so you know if you're

not thinking about it you're gonna get steamrolled it's also fraught with peril when my son comes home

with a sea and I'm like dude see I mean come on and he goes that you told me I'm not going to

college what's the difference and my wafer is that so you can't win man you just they're off

just sitting there like the guy from married married with children and just sitting on the

couch with your hand down your pants and Al Bundy it's really this cultural contract yeah that's

changed because you know it's like when we were were younger and preparing for college it wasn't

even a question it was just go to college you get a degree with that degree you're gonna get a good

job with that good job you're gonna get a house a family blah blah blah and then no one really

deviated from that in fact if you did deviate you almost looked at them like what's what's wrong with

this person why you know why didn't they follow the same social contract but now I think the

younger generations really have to think about how can I be how can I be AI proof how can I be

impervious to what AI is going to replace or how do I become higherable for AI knowing that AI

doesn't leave live and meet space what you know what value can I provide where I will get higher I

mean let's be honest AI is probably going to be the most of the employers of the future

um and if not even running some governments I would say yeah I mean it's a decentralization of a

centralized system you know corporate America was a centralized legacy structure and now that's

all beings decentralized you're gonna have instead of one corporation you're gonna have 5,000

individuals with a fleet of AI tools doing their own thing building their own their own stuff you know

and and you know we have the one person I mean we're on the advent of having a one person

billion you know billion dollar unicorn company I mean these things are comments so you have

this like collapsing of these legacy structures into this like no layer of the centralized worker

bees and you know that's a big transition so yeah there's a young man on this space that I

listened to won't violate any confidences but he's now a business partner of mine and he was

just talking about like yeah you know like I'm I don't know I'm trying to figure out what to do I'm

pretty good at coding yeah he's now doing something in a project I'm involved with with other people

on this you know in these spaces and he's gonna have equity he's really good and he's learning

we got him to loop them with some other really experienced kind of AI former coders AI coders

guys who understand hardware and all that kind of stuff and we're building something that's

gonna disintermediate a very large industry and it's a lot of the work that Thomas talked about

where it's just labor intensive going through documents arranging things AI can do it like really

quick and it's a big deal and it's a big segment of a certain profession now that young kid

he's he's involved because he was on these spaces and he's like I'm I recognize that there's a

problem in my future I'm sitting in a classroom I'm not learning anything I'm learning things that

are just not going to be relevant to my future he figured it out and now he's a partner of mine and

he's really good and he's learning a ton and you know he has a chance to do pretty well I think

of horse successful yeah just imagine like if his choice just go take a back a generation or

to do right like if he was going to college for you know horse and wagon development and uh you

know the the the model later the car model T whatever the car showed up I mean you'd be stupid to

stay in the model T college I'm sorry the horse and buggy college design versus just going and

trying to get a shop job with Henry Ford you know like that's that's where we're at like this is

the biggest revolution we've ever experienced and a lot of them are happening all the same time so

you know expecting a legacy structure to even survive that is just a joke I mean that's why

institutions are just crumbling and falling like every other day I mean that's where we're at

fourth turning you know isn't it isn't an amazing how many how few people see it or it's not

it's not even that they don't see it they just don't want to acknowledge it they're just afraid

and they just they're just like yeah well that's not going to happen for 20 years so I'll be dead

I'm like I don't think that's the case if this is coming you know you're standing on the beach

and the tide has gone out and you're sitting there looking at wow look at the clams this is kind

of weird never seen this before so I mean I will still as a younger guy I think there's a little

bit of like a entrenched legacy structure you know a lot of organizations are like at this point

pretty agent right you like you got a lot of people that are entrenched in certain ways of

thanking and the younger guys and the upstarts are coming in they're looking around at being like

this is not going to last and there's this like generational friction that I think is going to

get shattered and that's why there's so many unicorns that are disruptive you know because a lot

of disruptive innovators they can't innovate inside a legacy organization it's impossible you have

to develop a different organization from the ground up and like I've got friends that are in

business acquisition they're looking to buy legacy businesses and I tell them I'm like dude

like why would you buy a legacy business with legacy systems at this huge valuation when you

could basically just rebuild the thing AI native from scratch twice as fast and you know 100 times

as good like it that's where we're at like you know it's funny I ran into a navy seal yesterday

he just got out a year ago blank and he's he's got another navy seal buddy and they started a

company that's now billion dollar company and he exited it he's a really sharp guy and they're doing

something else I'm going to get read in on it but I'm in an office where it's just like rental

office space I have a little two hundred square foot office and no windows but there's a bunch of

people around me and I'm running into these entrepreneurs this guy former navy seal and they're

doing something in the medical space and he's like I'm pretty sure this is going to be a multi billion

dollar company it's so disruptive and it's it's it's I think it's I haven't been read in yet I'm

going to sign an NDA and sit down with these guys but you know it's amazing that the that a guy

who just got out of the military who's not tied in his thinking to well maybe I'm just going to go

be a contractor now because that's the skill set I have from being a navy seal he's he's he's

thinking beyond that and he's going to go create a company with another buddy of his and he's like

pretty convenient they're they got a meeting with Peter Teal in like two weeks like this this

guy's this is you know and those are the kind of people you bump into and they get it and they're

just they're taking shots and they're thinking about what AI can do and build and how do we

innovate and then there's other guys I know who are navy seals who were like well I want to get

the job as the head of security at the Phoenix Cardinal Stadium and I'm one of 30 in line for it

and it's like man you it's a big world out there you're not necessarily tied to the skill set

you learned in the military if anything you learned in the military blanket you know this you like

you learn leadership skills and you learn like if you're in a room and in 30 seconds you don't

know who's in charge you take charge and figure it out I don't think guys really appreciate

particularly military guys the level of real education they got over and above their their MOS

I sit every day man like the level of you know investment the military puts an officer's

on operations it's really it's really good like it's and you know that like it's really really

good I mean all these guys that are in these high intent to the operations and different

organizations they get out and they look at you know ho-hum ops that are traditional legacy

mortar you know brick and mortar business it's a joke man it's a joke so now with AI like man I just

I'm getting so excited about the future because there's I mean there's really there's limitless

opportunity if you I mean you know and I think the good thing is that like the people the right people

are seeing that opportunity and they're going to capitalize on it and the late adopters and the

people that want to just kind of like you know float along and have a stable life which is

completely acceptable are going to benefit from that in a way I just it's just it's happening so

fast that people are they can't see around the corner and you know I'll take a lot of companies

can't see around the corner so they're making that stupid trade off with their firing people to

to gain uh you know value from the next quarter at the expense of long term expansion of their

operation and you know reaching uncharted territory I think that's the I think that's the story

that's playing out in the broader economy but I completely agree with you man yeah well one last

thing because I'm sure everybody's rolling their eyes here but so my nephews are you know they're

in college or they're out of college they're pretty sharp you know some of them they're getting

there they got their series this series that one of them's getting to be he got a CFA and I was

down the Jersey shore with them this summer I'm like why are you guys doing that and they're just

they're caught in this legacy thinking that maybe worked with us and they're just kind of going

along for the ride my guys stop and just dude think of problems that are out there that you probably

encounter every single day and then figure out how to fix them think of a problem that's pretty you

know got a pretty big audience of people who are experienced that problem daily and then with AI

and maybe in the future with some robotic integration figure out how to fix it and then bring it to

market and you don't have to know how to code hire a couple people who know how to vibe code or whatever

you just and then then take a shot but it's it's hard to do that and I'll tell you when it's

really hard to do that when you got a monthly nut and a mortgage and tuition and a bunch of kids

so I was imploring them I'm like guys you know even if you take a shot and it doesn't work out

you're gonna learn a ton and you know if you're gonna fail fail fast like if you if you come up

with an idea and it doesn't work like fail fast and then come up with another idea and if you

keep getting up and you keep doing those kind of things it will work out like I don't know

anybody who's successful who doesn't have a litany of failures behind them but they learn from

them and then they figured out and what not to do and then they moved on that's the key and I think

in no time in human history has it been more opportunity to do something like that than

right now but a lot of people don't see it here here Hunter I would encourage you know in your

conversation with your son and some of the young people is to follow Mike Row he's got a decent

channel decent account on X but if it's listened to you know he's on TV he's on he has a

dirty jobs guy yeah he speaks he speaks eloquently but he also it's some of the things he says

is quite alarming around the level or the lack of jobs or people to fill jobs in these blue

collar areas and this is creating a lot of political tension because people you know business people

are saying look if I had you know I think I forget what it was but it was some it was electricians

or something like that he said how many do you need to go 500,000 and like well when do you need

them because we need them now and it's like 500 that's a lot and you go you know I don't know if

that's the exact number but this was the Navy was 72,000 and they the Navy came and asked them

you can help us find some of these electricians we're building these nuclear submarines and we just

we can't find in these traits and he's like all right man I can maybe scrape up a couple and he's

like how many you need they go 72,000 and they're like seven what and he goes where are they all

he goes they're in the sixth grade that's where they are I've been working with local college

it's a two-year school in my community and I've been working on it as part of my political job for

about six or seven years on building up workforce training for essentially the blue collar workforce

but it's more of a modern blue collar workforce so and it's things like a clean room technicians

lobotomists advance mechanics for EVs and robots and things like that so it's a lot more

of the cutting-edge stuff and we're trying to expand that program and it's you know it's just so

hard to get students to break the paradigm that they shouldn't go to Bucknell for 300,000 dollars

in major in Hungarian poetry I mean there'd be so much better off going to these two-year

schools that are underwritten by apprenticeship programs so there's like no tuition you actually

get some spending money you get a little bit of experience and at 21 you're making 100,000

dollars with no debt versus the Bucknell graduate in Hungarian poetry who works at Starbucks

can't pay their student debt and that student debt's going to follow them till they're 40 or 50 years

old they're never going to be able to discharge it in our current system it's not even a close call

but to break people's paradigm is crazy now we had a meeting and the Navy came up and they needed

advanced machinists for critical parts and we have one of the tier one Navy suppliers here in town

and it's a family-owned-run advanced machine shop like third or fourth generation and

they might have 40 or 50 employees it's not a big operation but the Navy is trying to make sure

they're properly sourced with talent and all the graduates coming out of the advanced manufacturing

program that have an open job at this company or basically across the street from the college

making good money but the Navy needs like 25,000 advanced machinists that's just the Navy I don't

know what the other other parts of the economy need but we can't get the people to expand the program

meaning we can't get the students I mean the students we get get immediately placed

and these people have portable skills all the kind of things you want

you know if I were younger I would absolutely consider pursuing that unless you're in the top

part of the curve IQ-wise where you're going to feel a survive this pivot to an AI-driven economy

you're so much better off working with using your brain and working with your hands and doing

a trade that's going to be probably protected and valued tremendously in the next 10 years

I can't you can't say that about it like an accountant is an accountant going to be valuable in

five years or 10 years I don't know it's probably a lot less than they are today the you know

the cube monkey doing the TPS reports you know they're in a fucking bullseye right now

and customer service agent truck drivers how long before we have automated truck drivers

five years it's not it's you can already do it it's just a question now of getting through

the friction of it and it's truck drivers the number one job in a country what are these truck

drivers going to go do they're they're prime candidates for learning a new new trader new skill

if they have the ability to do it and I'm very concerned about the pivot that society's making

you know I work on my political job but I would just I would express some level of frustration that

I don't think society is adapting fast enough to keep up with the changes upon us

I think that public sector jobs are going to wrap themselves in what they think is an impenetrable

veneer of like regulation against AI integration but at some point the private sector who's going

to be struggling as well is going to stop funding all this fraud and shenanigans and they're just

going to be left to I don't know like you're not going to protect yourself with trying to

regulate your way out or legislate your way out of what's coming it's not going to be successful

but but that is going to be the path they're going to try to do it and it might last for a time

but it but it's going to end very quickly because things are just not going to function properly

and yeah and if you're thinking you're going to get a pension out of a public sector job

I mean where do you think all that crap ends up it ends up in your pension fund and Dom Dom

Bay knows better than anybody that's where bad investments and illiquid investments and zeros

that are marked at par go to die and when the money runs out they're just your checks not going

to show up and then and then what and it's really hard to have that conversation with people

like now you don't understand I'm locked in and I got my highest three years my friends who are

police and firemen and things like that I'm like okay well I'd have a plan B because I think

things are going to change a whole lot more than you're anticipating I think if you if you look

at the pension and nominal terms like how much money do I have to pay my cable bill

and buy a cheeseburger and rent I think you're looking at it the wrong way you have to really

think about how is your pension through time going to preserve your purchasing power