Bitcoin Will Shine In The Debasement Trade

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To investors,

It is time for bitcoin to shine. That is my conclusion after doing a deep-dive over the weekend on the digital asset’s fundamentals and the current financial environment. How high could bitcoin go in the next 8-12 weeks? That is anyone’s guess, but I think people have been lulled to sleep for long enough.

The fireworks can now commence.

Let’s dig into some of the data. First, James Lavish says “if you say you don’t believe in Bitcoin, you might as well say you don’t believe in inflation.”

Although bitcoin tracked CPI directionally before 2023, the chart visually provides a lot of noise. But starting around 2023, bitcoin and CPI have been married at the hip. This tight correlation suggests investors are using bitcoin as an inflation-hedge asset.

JPMorgan analysts are now calling bitcoin and gold the “debasement trade.” They write:

“The bank defines it as a trade that ‘reflects a combination of factors, which in our client conversations range from elevated geopolitical and policy uncertainty, to uncertainty about the longer-term inflation backdrop, to concerns about ‘debt debasement’ due to persistently high government deficits across major economies, to concerns about Fed independence, to waning confidence in fiat currencies in certain emerging markets in particular, and to broader diversification away from the US dollar.”

This makes sense, right? Investors are scared that governments around the world have created too much debt, therefore nation states and central banks have to debase their currency in order to avoid default. Holding dollars will be a losing strategy in this scenario.

Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello highlights that “Gold (+48%) and Bitcoin (+31%) are the top performing major assets so far in 2025. We’ve never seen these two in the #1 and #2 spots for any calendar year.”

Many people will argue that past performance does not indicate future performance. That is true, but the structural trends globally are suggesting bitcoin and gold are both going higher.

Forward Guidance’s Felix Jauvin writes “every country is pivoting to running it hot. We’re gonna run as wide of deficits as possible to try and outgrow the debt. Central banks are giving up on inflation and fiscal dominance is arriving. Nominal assets will do well, debasement hedges will do even better. The world of 2010-2020 is no longer. Reset your priors. Let’s f**king go.”

None of this is new if you have been paying attention online for the last decade. Bitcoiners, and their predecessor gold bugs, have been yelling about the currency debasement problem for years. But the difference today is you have major financial institutions lending their credibility to the thesis.

Take Morgan Stanley as another example. Ash Crypto writes:

“$1.3 Trillion Morgan Stanley Global Investment Committee recommends allocating 2–4% of client portfolios to crypto and says Bitcoin is a scarce asset, comparable to digital gold.”

BTC Archive also points out that “Morgan Stanley says it will “support” its 16,000 Financial Advisors managing $2 TRILLION if they wish to allocate to Bitcoin and crypto.”

So what should you take away from the traditional firms embracing bitcoin? The big guys understand the “debasement trade” is not going away. Why? Vijay Boyapati explained it well when he wrote “in the global family of financial assets the two closest siblings are now sending the same message: global debasement has reached the point of no return.”

The point of no return. That may sound like hyperbole to some of you, but I don’t think it is far from the truth. An entire generation of investors are realizing a large portion of financial returns in the market are merely debasement of the currency. If that is a major driving force of returns, it calls into question everything you were taught about investing from the old world.

Opening Bell’s Phil Rosen highlighted a great example of this by denominating the S&P 500 in bitcoin, rather than in dollars.

The S&P is up over 100% since 2020 when denominated in dollars. That is great, right? Not so fast. The same index is down nearly 90% in the same timeline when you denominate it in a finite, sound money asset like bitcoin. Simply, your frame of reference really matters.

So as I have been saying for awhile now, bitcoin is the hurdle rate. If you can’t beat it, you have to buy it. And I think the next 12 weeks are going to be very fun for bitcoin holders.

Interest rates are coming down. Currency debasement is accelerating. The institutional world is embracing the debasement trade. Bitcoin ETFs are seeing record inflows. Retail sentiment is growing as investors buy into the “Q4 is good for bitcoin” narrative. And M2 money supply is expanding rapidly.

Gold has run up more than 50% this year. Now it is bitcoin’s turn. Hold on to your coins because things are about to get crazy.

Have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Bitcoin Is The Purest AI Trade Says Jordi Visser

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation we talk about why bitcoin is the purest AI trade available in the market, energy infrastructure, what is going on with the government shutdown, how interest rates, the Fed, the economy are all intertwined, and why prediction markets and tokenization are two big themes moving forward.

Enjoy!

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