Boat-load of trouble: Channel fury, Israel sanctions & broke Britain

0:00The Telegraph Five My favourite lolly was fab because I thought it was bit sophisticated. Four And I just thought this is Britain, this is the Britain that I know. Three I've transferred my heart to Jordan Baudela Two And he burned him. He's still a bit of an unknown quantity when it comes to the fiscal policy where we will find out in October when he leaves the first budget. One We have been caught. Welcome once again to Planet Normal, the Telegraph podcast Alice of Biz and... Hello ...and me Liam Halegan. Last weekend co-pilot, hundreds of protesters gathered in Port Smith after a boat carrying around 140 illegal migrants was brought ashore.

1:01Demonstrators blocked roads in an attempt to stop coaches carrying the migrants from leaving the city on Sunday night, following a separate protest at the port of Dover the previous day. The government said people had a right to peaceful protest but condemned quotes intimidating and thuggish behaviour of the demonstration. In your latest teller of Colomaleson you argued that yes the protesters were wrong to wear masks and dress in black but that much of the country were back in terms of pushing against the unrelenting stream of illegal cross-chall immigration and the seeming inability of successive governments to do anything about it. In other news in Saxony and Holt in former East Germany, the hard-right party alternative for Deutschland nearly doubled its vote share in Sunday state election. Winning almost 44% of votes cast. Meanwhile the centre-right CDU, the party of former Chancellor Angela Merkel and today's incumbent Friedrich Merz, managed just 17% half its vote share 5 years ago.

2:04And the centre-left SPD, Germany's other main party of government for the last 60 odd years scraped just 9%. The centre certainly did or hold. Meanwhile back in Blythe, we were formally held as party conference in Birmingham, we were both there covering it, won't we also along with other telegraph colleagues. Special guest was Jordan Bartell, president of Marine Le Penz, Passongblum on National Rally, which could soon be in power with Le Pen the favourite to end next year's presidential election in France. Lots going on, Kauppala, those pesky bond markets keep rearing their ugly head. Godnexel and guest will be discussing the UK economy, even you and me might learn a thing or two Alison. And you're seriously not talking about Ed Miliband's latest pronouncements on Israel, and also about slipping school standards and exam results in Scotland and your native Wales. But before we start, I wanted to commiserate with you Alison, because I know you'll be upset, disappointed, traumatised, hurt.

3:05The carestumber has announced he's stepping down from the House of Commons and without waiting for the next election. I've transferred my heart to Jordan Bartella. I have to say, God he was the starly him of the reform party conference, he honestly was. I mean, that man could sell your pictures in that accent or even smooth talking Frenchman. What is it? Oh, honestly, it's barely not political because you used to fancy a manual Macron. It says promise, prime ice, I promise you. No, he was phenomenal. That was the real coup de thé art of the reform conference, which obviously I see what you did that. Probably a little bit of a bit of a cloud with the channel for sting over donors, but yeah, it was terrific. Jordan was promising some French action as opposed to inaction on the small boats and here Nigel Faroeil signed a new entonque or diale, which was a terrific piece of theatre on stage.

4:07What did you think a bit, Liam? You were there doing the business day. I mean, things that stuck out for me, people said it was subdued. I didn't find it subdued at all. I mean, there were reform members know how to have a good time, don't they? Suella, rather than my great speech, promising to expand the number of medical training places that British children would be allowed to have, which would make a nice change and rocket-generic. I know you did a panel with was talking about increasing the tax free allowance, wasn't he, to £15,000, which would give, I think, the average tax pay a 500 quid a year. But it was very interesting, these pledges that all of the people who would be ministers in a reform government were making and saying Nigel can sack me in 100 days if I haven't done this. Yes, so the conference was Thursday Friday and Saturday. I was only there for the Thursday, which is you say, is the quiet today, the business day. And I was asked by Robert Generick to appear on a panel with another independent economist, interesting guy called Simon French, X Treasury official who now works in the city.

5:13Very interesting on X and social media in general about the economy is Simon French. And in a weird kind of reversal reform shadow chancellor interviewed the two of us about what we felt was going on in financial markets and the kind of constraints, if you like, that imposes on fiscal policy, on taxation and spending. There were a lot more business people there than last year, there were more businesses exhibiting there than last year, though it must be said, you still don't have lots and lots of mainstream businesses at the conference in the way that you would, if say the conservative party were favourites to win the next general election or the Labour party were favourites to win the next general election. I do think in fairness, a lot of businesses are still waiting and seeing what happens with reform. A lot of our political immediate class, of course, wishes reform would just go away and they're a flash in the pan. I personally don't think that I think they're going to at the very least help to reshape British politics, British electoral politics in the coming years, they already have, of course, in many ways.

6:21And I do think they can be a very significant force, if not the biggest party in the next house of commons. That's how it looks to me at the moment. I was there on Thursday night for the dinner before I left on Friday morning, when news broke, the channel for news expose a in absolute fairness reform has clearly got questions to ask. I used to work with the channel for news, of course, but I say as an independent observer, a journalist, many in reform will complain that it was skewed and the same scrutiny doesn't apply. So the other parties and all the rest of it, but as a stand alone piece of journalism, it did stand up, I think, as posing very serious questions for the party and indeed reform haven't they? They suspended to leading figures. These people can't be dismissed as marginal figures. It's Nigel Farage's, you know, most senior press person who's been around for a long time and also reforms head of policy.

7:23So that did put a pal cast a pal over the conference on Thursday night. There was still plenty of chatter in the bars. A lot of people still very upbeat. And I from what I hear the Friday and Saturday was relatively upbeat too. But I think what's very interesting is even though immigration was an important part of the discussion reform, even on business day, by the way. And of course, as you say Jordan, but appeared at the conference, he's not going to be the presidential candidate, of course, for the national rally. That's going to be in Marine Le Pen. And there's no love loss between those two. But I wrote about France a couple of weeks ago in the telegraph and the politics and economics of France. And it's no, it's by no means nailed on that Le Pen is going to be the next president, but she's well ahead in the first round polling. And what may then happen is that the French establishment will form a firewall in the second round where all the other parties coupled together their support in the two boards runoff, which is the second round to stop Le Pen.

8:32I think that may still be possible. I don't think that's going to be possible in Germany. I think that's so called firewall, European politicians call it, we're not going to work with these far right parties. The firewall in Germany, I think, is now going to break down. I think AFD having 144% in a key German region in those lander elections, if you like. The German establishment is going to have to work with AFD. I mean, it's otherwise that the support for them is going to keep getting even bigger. It's burgeoning, not only in former East Germany, but also in West Germany. And I think that has major, major implications for the future, not just of Europe's largest economy, but the European project. If you like the European Union and indeed Western Europe itself. I think that the liberals of Europe have, I was going to say, dog their own grave. They've certainly made a huge problem for themselves. Haven't they?

9:32Seeing that now across Europe. I had some time with Nigel on Sunday morning and he said he'd woken up the morning of the channel forcing and saw why I nursed my bother. And I mean, he was funny about it. But the fact is Liam, errors are unavoidable. Unforced errors are unforgivable. I really think that I've had some run-ins in the past with Dan Jukes, who was sort of part of Nigel's what I thought Fagin's gang. Really, it's a side of their operation. I don't particularly like not opposed to having lots of men doing things, but when you get that sort of boys own vibe, I found it off-putting. He was very arrogant and he behaved stupidly in that channel force thing, boasting about things and so on. And I think that reform looked amateurish and that the fact is that they have to accept, yes, it's unfair. Yes, channel four isn't doing in-depth investigations into Islamism in the green party, anti-Semitism in the green party, Lord Ali and the Labour funding.

10:37We haven't seen those stings, have we Liam? But we know, Dan Well, that every political party is up to his neck in dubious donors, I would say. But reform just has to accept, get with it and realise that people are gunning for them the whole time. So I think that that does make a difference. I think people were very much hoping at the conference that this would be time for a major reset that for us would get himself a chief of staff. People were talking about Susie Wiles, who's the amazing woman that Donald Trump has as a sort of gatekeeper certainly strikes me that they could do with some more people. But Nigel obviously has been hugely strong on the board and on immigration, which he's made his own topic. And that really came to the boil this week, didn't it, with those protests first in Dover and then in Portsmouth. And I have written about it in the column of this week, and I feel very strongly that people have voted time and again for more lower immigration, control of illegal migration.

11:46So let me just give you a couple of figures in this week when we saw those protests of masked men. So Sunday Monday, 776 arrived on the mega boats. It's not acceptable, Liam. No country in history would ever have treated this as normal. And I think what raises me constantly is this is happening every single day and somehow we watched PMQs today earlier, Kathy Bait-Koff was tasking Burnham about failures in defense spending quite rightly. But this vast national emergency is going on with Piddington, tiny village in Oxfordshire, which is about to have what they thought they were going to have 1200 illegal migrants having. And I think that this is a legal migrant's house in Piddington, which was going to be full migrants to every villager. So yeah, I said to my column, you know, Andy Burnham, hoping every heart, a rapist in every postcode.

12:49It's absolutely appalling. There is no other way. And I think if they think they can ignore it, there's a kind of British bloke now who's worried for his mum and his daughters and his sisters. And I think why should they put up with it because it's not what? See yourself of reform often points out that more illegal migrants have invaded the southern border of the UK. The British troops went across the channel on the day day landings. So I think this is the start, this is the start of protests, which could either remain peaceful. Let's hope so. Or could turn very ugly and we could see, you know, some very, very disturbing scenes. Yeah, I'm surprised that Kenny Bait-Koff didn't make more of this at primary questions on Wednesday. I think it is the elephant in the room of British politics in general, but in particular in recent days.

13:53I think the commentary is, there's about a cognitive dissonance going on about what actually happened on the South coast of the UK last weekend, where private individuals took it upon themselves to do the job that the state should be doing. As you wrote in your column link in the show notes, we must hope, of course, against hope that it remains peaceful and you had a few thoughts in your column about how the protest could be kept more peaceful, certainly in terms of the atmosphere of those protests. But the response, much of the political class, to utterly condemn those protesting and barely a word for people, you know, by definition arriving, breaking the law before they even touch British soil, often throwing their passports away to make it completely almost impossible for their claims to be processed in any way. On top of this, you now have, you know, the times are colleagues at the time.

14:56Sometimes I think a little bit ho face about these more difficult parts of politics, if I may say so, as opposed to the telegraph, which I think shows a lot more backbone. Even the times were, you know, splashed this week is, you know, the biggest story on the front page, whistle blow from inside the home office saying, you know, quotes around 1% of these people arriving by our actual asylum seekers, whereas of course we're forced in our discourse to call them all asylum seekers, you know, as if the burden of proof is on us. As you say, Liam, it's let's blame the people whose patients was worn thin with the system. We didn't vote to be subject to those risks. And now we're told you have to take your fair share of the risks you didn't vote for. I was in deepest ethic. I mean, we obviously live in North Essex or rather genteel quite prosperous. It must be said well healed town and even in our town as you remarked tempers are fraying and patients is wearing thin.

16:04But over this last week, I went to get my motorcycle service in deepest, you know, deep in the estates geese about if you like a completely different part of the county. And while I was waiting for it to be repaired, I went for a wander and I ended up in a cafe on an industrial estate. And I saw a really beautiful thing. I saw a very industrious woman from Ghana country, I know well in Central Africa. And I got talking to her and she not only works there and in the NHS, she has also set up a cafe on an industrial estate. And she's serving Caribbean and African food. There isn't always the biggest market for that in the UK outside of those communities with huge respect. I mean, I love African and Caribbean food into both those parts of the world a lot. And I watched a stream of Essex lads in their work clothes, stream with plaster, mards, cement, dust in their hair, coming in, having a wonderful relationship with this woman.

17:08And I was clearly adored by them. They're all eating all kinds of curried goats and all kinds of other delicacies that she was introducing to them. I almost went because I'm sitting there in the corner. They probably thought I was some kind of police officer, monitoring them or something. And I just thought this is Britain. This is the Britain that I know. And here we are in a part of the country that a lot of the Biavponsa, would condemn it on BC dead. And yet you had ordinary people here, a stream of white guys coming in literally from their white vans and absolutely, I mean, they were physically embracing this woman. And there she was from West Africa, contributing, paying tax, working not just in our public services, but our private sector too, providing a service. And I thought that's the Britain I know. And I do think there's tremendous tolerance in the UK. I've been family's experience there over the years as I sometimes mention on planet normal, maybe a bit too much for some listeners, but I don't apologize because it's absolutely a core of my psyche that my family came here and was treated well.

18:18And yet we're interested in territory now, aren't we? We're in GK, just to the territory. The people of England have not spoken yet. Brits have a long fuse, but when you constantly, you know, extract the urine, as they don't say in industrial ethics, when you constantly take the mix and push this as our political media class has done, everyone's got a limit. Yes, and I think that lovely lady, you describe embraced by all her life could get substantially worse as racism grows and tempers throw and that's true. Nobody's fault because we have been very, very accepting and embracing. So in our town, I saw my first woman in the burqa last week and the young women in the hairdressing salon where I was, everybody made the same shocked sound. And the girls don't like it. I don't like it. She was walking a few feet behind what I presumed was her husband, shorts, you know, t-shirt, you know, strutting along with this woman in this horrendous, to my mind,

19:29horrendous personality, human being, effacing garment. And I thought, I don't want that in my town. That's not our culture. And what we're doing by allowing all these illegal migrants, as we are storing up so much trouble because many of them, they're not educated. I've said to planet normalist as before, I spent some of my 20s trying to teach English as a foreign language to Bangladeshies and other people. If they're not literate in their own language, and you're in big trouble as a teacher, very, very difficult to teach an adult who isn't literate in their own language. So we are storing up a huge amount of trouble. Very few of them are deported and they are now scattering them around the country in these so far in these military bases. But Paul this week said that the majority of British people want them to be detained and deported. And the political class has got its fingers in its ears. Carries on as though somehow this can just, you know, this is normal. This is the normal well.

20:36And I think there's a huge contrast. I quoted a bit of all well, which I had seen before, Liam. Fantastic bit of all. Contrasting the sort of liberal, Burnham class during the war, who were basically all for ushering the SSN and the Nazis in for quiet life. And the red-blooded ordinary English blocs who were ready to fight for because they loved their country, they loved their religion, they thought their religion and their country was great. And I think that's where we are now. The establishment, the border force, have not done the job they're supposed to. And it's now, you know, it's now in the hands of ordinary blocs who think what the hell is going on. And I think that if they think they can ignore that, they're going to, they can know if they need to wake up and smell the anger because there's a lot of anger. We will return to this subject many times. I'm sure in the coming weeks, months and even years, just before we move on to the economy. And as we speak, Brent Cruz just gone through $100 a barrel.

21:42This is getting really serious now. That's going to push up our government, Boran Cosby. Just before we move on to that via our guest, let's just talk briefly. Your concern were both concerned about Ed Miliband's statement on Israel. And you're also knocked that exam result school standards according to the piece of rankings, the best international comparisons of school attainment. England has been improving England, which of course has those free school reforms, the academies, schools like the Michaela school run by Catherine Boer, and others. Cross party reforms from Blair through to go Nick Gibbon, so on. They've been resisted by labor governments, labor politicians and teaching unions in Scotland and Wales. And results in Scotland and Wales compared to the UK. And in absolute terms, have gone off an absolute cliff. Yeah, obviously I'm from Wales, the Wales I grew up in was an educational powerhouse, you know, your mom gave pointed out all that boy over there who's gone a box for it.

22:46And it wasn't unusual. It was special, but it wasn't unusual. Right. It was something to aspire to. And yeah, realistically, a kid from the valleys, a grammar school could aspire to go to the top universities in the world. Imperial UCL, all those. And it's an absolute basket case now. Andy Burnham wants more devolution. If you want a test bed for what devolution does to people, look at Wales since 1999, the education standards have plunged. Welsh teenager is now 1.5 years behind an English teenager in their schooling, a piece of test for reading maths and science, Wales is right down as is Scotland and Wales is the bottom of all the Northern Ireland Scotland England. It is because Welsh Labour took a decision to abandon the Gover reforms, no league tables, no sats, no academies, no free schools and basically play based learning.

23:53Now, I tell you, in my fear, my real fear now is with this stupid government and the dreadful Lucy Powell succeeding the really dreadful Bridget Phillips and his education secretary is Lucy Powell is talking about, oh, children should do what they can do what they know is literally narrowing, you know, let's not give them anything difficult or demanding because they're white working class thickos. And they can't be exposed to anything. Retirony of low expectation. Another Labour politician willing to create another client voter by condemning that person to a life on benefits is absolutely outrageous. And by the way, you talk about Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillips and I really see interviewed Catherine, but we're seeing on my own when the facts change YouTube channel. And she said she famously clashed with Bridget Phillips and she said Lucy Powell's even worse.

24:53Yes, exactly. They have that sort of Lego Playbuby will stick on black hair, don't they anyway. The hard bob of all authoritarian government will not succeed at school, you will not aspire, you will claim benefits for the rest of your life and you will vote for us. Yes, you will get a minimum wage job in Welsh tourism and never be able to have anything nice except the Welsh Lanyard class, of course, which is coining it on the public purse. But that's enough of Welsh bitterness very quickly, Labour playing the same game with Israel, right, world wide signaling virtue on the world stage. We're going to introduce UK sanctions against the West Bank and tomorrow and so on. Edmila Bands, energy secretary drove up drove up our energy prices to the highest in the world, not contempt with that. Liam is now moved on to foreign secretary triggering an international incident. Now this will do nothing at all. They're claiming it's to keep the way open to a two state solution.

25:58That's absolutely rubbish. The UK has zero influence with Israel. Israel has been fighting for three years and bitter war against Hamas and Islamist. Israel couldn't give a toss what Britain does, but we are dependent on Israel for medicines, for armaments, and also I was very lucky to sit next to my other crush. Full ahead of Mossad, Yossi Co in astonishing warrior, amazing man, which we had him. And Yossi said to me, you do know Mossad has given the UK security services multiple tip-offs about planned terrorist attacks in the UK. So our Israel now going to bother giving the UK, which is spurning them in this childish way. Honestly, Edmila Bands is giving a toddler a box of matches. Some people would say that all Mila Bands is trying to do, all Labour is trying to do is curry favour with the Muslim votes ahead of the by-lection that's been sparked in Kings Cross and Pancras in Central London to bring this full circle because of the resignation of her former Prime Minister, Kirstaama.

27:09Oh, that was all, I saw what you did there. Can I just add, I've done a little bit of research because I know you like me when I do some research. The whole moment. So the United States is going to look very, very asconce on this move by Mila Bands, right? So Mike Huckabee, US ambassador to Israel said the Brits have lost it. The Jew hatred of their government knows no boundaries and knows no facts. 38 American states have got laws or policies which say they will not trade with any countries which have banned trade with Israel. Florida, how much trade do we do with Florida? Yeah, $4 billion. If they enforce that limb, what is a bit of band going to have cost us? What an absolute moron he is.

28:12Our planet or we'll guess this week is Ross Clark, a prominent journalist and author who writes regularly for the spectator, telegraph and the mail among other publications. His recent books include The Great Inflation and also Not Zero, how a rational target will it pull up Russia, you help China and waves even save the planet. A return guest on planet nor Ross's new book is called Britain is bust the coming sovereign debt crisis and what it means for you. Ross Clark, great to have you back here with us on planet normal. How bust is Britain? Well, we've got some accumulated debt which is now equivalent to sort of 100% of UK GDP. We're spending 100 billion pound a year just servicing our debt, paying interest and bond markets are quite clearly jittery. We're paying a higher price for a year for our government debt than virtually any other developed country and it is looking awfully as if bond vigilantes may pick Britain as a victim.

29:17And if they do that, well everything changes political debate will change very, very quickly in the way it did in Greece 15 years ago. It only takes a small trigger like in that case it was a re-rating of a Greek government debt by ratings agencies and within months. Greece was thrown into a major crisis which took eight years and 15 cycles of austerity packages to escape from. Some of us in the economics profession even some quite mild mannered people now are saying that a rerun of 1976 when Britain has to be bowed out by the International Monetary Fund some kind of similar event could happen sometimes soon. Do you think that's overstated? No, I don't think it's overstated as I said, you know bond markets are signaling quite severely that they think that the UK government is not containing spending. It is not managing its public finances well and that's the great fear that that will provoke inflation which then also devalues bonds which is why the investors are demanding higher yields to lend to Britain but you know the danger is it reaches the stage where it really does become a slippery slope.

30:32What would you say to those who complain who elected the bond markets? Why should we care? Surely it's crazy all these finances in the dark are pushing around our elected politicians. How would you counter that argument Ross? If you don't want to borrow money on the international markets well you'll have to either borrow it some other way I don't know how you would either have to print money which will generate inflation. It always does or you have to abolish money and become a sort of socialist state will and good luck with any of those three things. And how seriously do you think are political and indeed are media class take these issues? I mean I obviously have my own views about these I suspect they're rather similar to yours but you know the pair of us we both have been knocking around the media quite a long time writing about complex economic issues. How would you rate the level of understanding of the kind of issues you discuss in your book Britain is bus among our elected MPs among our ministers among the great sages of print and broadcast journalism?

31:47Well I think not all that great when you start hearing you know the anti austerity brigade sort of still trying to blame you know low economic growth on you know austerity package that was a supposed austerity package that was carried out between 2010 and 2018. Clearly there is very little understanding of the need to sort of balance spending with with revenue and that if you go on year after year and no UK government has balanced the books in 25 years. If you carry on doing that year after year after year you will end up in serious trouble and to say about that of anti austerity brigade is they seem to have it in their heads that only the state can stimulate the economy. Now I can buy the Keynesian argument if you're in the depths of a recession and businesses individuals are too shy of spending money but it can make sense for a government to step in invest something create economic activity which otherwise wouldn't have taken place.

32:59We seem to got this into this situation now and the burners of prime example of this of politicians who seem to think the UK economy or no economy can operate without perma stimulus without governments constantly putting in hefty stimulus spending money that they don't have and that if we cease to do that then we won't have an economy and of course what we're doing year on year of spending more than we're taking revenue. Gradually transferring resources from productive private sector into an unproductive state sector and public services productivity in this country has not risen in 25 years we're back to where we were when Tony Blair was elected with the result that you know it's that's what's that is what is holding the economy back it's not on the lack of some kind of stimulus package. Between 2010 and 2019 the so-called austerity years as you say the national debt increased by a half in terms of the percentage points of GDP it went from you know just under 60 to almost 90% of GDP and we printed 850 billion pounds plus of bank of England funny money is austerity a misnomer.

34:22What are their parts of the public sector that were actually squeezed. Well the work cuts during those years but overall you look at public spending the public sector as a percentage of GDP all that happened really between 2010 and 2018 was that the state returned to being roughly the size it was before the financial crisis of 2008-2009 you know there's a massive increase in the economy. The massive increase in public spending as always is during a recession there's more people claiming benefits and so on GDP shrink so naturally spending as a proportion of GDP rise but all that happened from the Osborne years and into the Hammond years was that we sort of returned to where we were in 2007. The focus of ideological cuts was just total nonsense you know it didn't happen austerity was effectively a myth government still carried on spending far more than they were receiving in revenue and I don't think if I went out and every month I spent more on my credit card and I was receiving in revenue I don't think my wife would call that austerity.

35:40What does a crisis look like Ross what would a rerun of 1976 look like in terms of inflation the currency the impacts on ordinary people's lives and is the IMF even big enough to bail out a massive economy now like the UK. What happens or people will have to understand what happens if Britain loses control of its public finances has to go to the IMF or someone. I don't think we can go to the ECB like Greece or we can shut ourselves out of that one but Betty you lose control of your fiscal policy it won't be John Healey who was running UK budgets it would be the IMF and this is what happened in Greece we you know for eight years effectively the IMF. ECB were breathing down the Greek government's neck and telling them what they had to do we had this you know in the midst of that period we had this government elected the Serizia government which was sort of the anti austerity option was supposedly going to restore Greek sovereignty in you know over fiscal policy and I mean it lasted a few months and then it sort of all collapse again and you know it will be a big deal.

36:56And you know it became obvious that the IMF was going to be in charge and ECB were going to be in charge so you know fiscal policy which you know our political parties might advance now will become a totally relevant. So if we we end up having to go and request the bailout. How much more to the left has Kirstama's government been is Andy Burnham's government Ross in your opinion when it comes to tax and spending how much further to the left are they the governments the so called new labor governments of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Well and got a golden brown as you remember me started our fiscal policy was going to be his real strong suit he was going to balance the budget over the course of the economic cycle that was his you know one of his golden rules and he stuck to it for a few years and then he let it go and he kept stretching out the the definition the economic cycle so you could just sort of you know basically under his rules we will never get a half to balance the budget.

37:59So the relative to the beginning of the Blair and Brown years the government we have now is very very much to the left very much to the sort of side of fiscal irresponsibility but the Blair and Brown governments that changed fiscally over the course of that 13 years was the immense switch from responsibility to something rather less and responsible as for Andy Burnham. He's still a bit of an unknown quantity when it comes to the fiscal policy we will find out in October when he Lee presents his first budget which way it's going to go but for the moment you know we know Andy Burnham he discomforted the bond markets last year by his infamous remark that we should be in hot to the bond markets and then he was only mayor of Manchester being spoke about as a possible future prime minister but he was still the most important part of the job. And then mayor of Manchester wasn't even in parliament and you know he just think you know if that's what he did when he wasn't in power you can imagine what markets are going to do with if he if he doesn't come up and he doesn't come up with a budget which convinces markets that government is going to be in control of fiscal policy.

39:17In what direction do you expect the Burnham ship of state will go in terms of tax and spend given that this is a prime minister who was installed by the trade unions the same unions who asked to kiss stammer installed by votes of labor activists or indications of support from labor activists left wing back bench MPs is it the politics of the situation that's really spooking the UK's bond markets. Well we're just going to look back at where how and why KS damas government crumbled and the first thing that went wrong and first thing that went really seriously wrong was when Rachel Reeves and the then pension secretary Liz Kendall came up with that reform for personal independence payments which is going to trim a very modest five billion pound from the welfare budget. And labor and back bench MPs simply would not let it happen even with a majority of 160 odd KS damas in danger of losing a vote on the finance bill so you know he he's in backtracked and Rachel Reeves famously burst into tears in the house of commons if back bench MPs wouldn't let KS damas introduce a very modest reform and welfare budget what hope would there be of them allow.

40:42So we're going to be going to the bottom line and the burn them to do it so whatever and the burn them's personal views he is in hawk you don't want to be in hawk to the bond markets but it's very much in hawk to labor back benchers how fair or unfair is it for the left to endlessly blame Liz trust is many budget back in October 2022. And of course wall to wall news coverage mass panic and hysteria not least from the the broadcast journalists and yet Ross has you know well the ten and thirty year guilt yields have been way higher it's cost the British government a lot more to borrow than it has for most of the last two years compared to even the very peak the one they peak of the guilt yields at the time of that mini budget crisis. Yeah well you also hold some percentage point ahead of where they were at the peak of the Liz trust debarkler now let's trust you know many budget was a disaster let's face it and the reason it was a disastrous because she announced all this tax cuts tax cuts generally you know great great you know but at the same time to two weeks before and she'd announce this open ended commitment to pay all our energy bills subsidize all our energy bills and that that's what markets really.

42:01So it really took right about but of course that you know the left took the wrong lesson I said oh you know markets don't like tax cuts will markets don't like unbalanced budgets you have tax cuts as long as you have spending cuts and this truss is and problem was she never never proposed any spending cuts and this was at the time she came to job a prime minister at the time when big government was very much back in fashion in the wake of covid and to the world. And so that's the kind of people that are looking to the government to bail them out on this and that and you know she became a victim of that sort of mentality really in that it was very difficult at that time to make a case for a smaller state that's dick is still is quite difficult to make a case for smaller state but you know if we get to a physical crisis we will be forced into it and I don't see labor in any position to that at the moment and neither the other party's the Tories and the rest of the world.

43:01So I just want to reduce the deficit by 23 billion a year well you know last year was nearly 130 billion reform UK came up with 80 billion pounds worth of suggested welfare cuts but then they wanted to give a lot of that away in former tax cuts so you know there's still a large gap between even the Tories and the reform UK and what actually needs to be done to bring the public finances back into balance. Last couple of questions Ross do you think we can actually you know the political media class do you think they can rouse themselves to do what needs to be done to head off. Of financial crisis in terms of fiscal consolidation raining and spending in particular getting gross going are we capable of doing what needs to be done going through the painful processes in order to a voter crisis. What do you think we need an actual crisis to move the political needle a kind of two thousand eight nine star crisis even a nineteen seventy six star crisis.

44:05Yes I mean you know I'm minded to think it will really need a big crisis and that will be the what jolt us finally into realizing the scale of the problem but there's a small rate of hope in twenty ten as you remember the conservatives came up with a manifesto is the great line was we're. We're all in this together you know so every page of that manifesto were proposals it was dominated by the need to repair the public finances and the lecture largely voted for that I mean I didn't get an overall majority but the Lib Dems also are very much on board with rebalancing the public books but that was of course in the wake of the biggest financial crisis since the Wall Street crash. Yes yes probably at that time it was still the lines and I think it helped also that some tanks were on the streets in Athens on election day in the UK election day the crisis in Greece got to the stage where it couldn't be ignored by any country so I think that acted as a certain amount of you know jolting us into voters into doing what they needed to do so.

45:19You know I don't think it's impossible that you know a political party could come up with a you know a program on the scale of what is needed to and the UK electric could vote for it but I fear that it will probably take a full blown crisis before it really happens. Finally, Ross as I say you and I have been knocking around journalism politics economics and so on for quite a few decades now you know our own right. It strikes me certainly since I've been a journalist that the level of kind of financial literacy of MPs and journalists has really fallen off a cliff they used to be much more sophisticated public debate about the kind of things that you and I write about physical policy, monetary policy financial markets then there is now do you think I'm just becoming an MP. I think I'm just becoming an old comogen or do you think I'm right on that trend. I think it is a fair point you know politics was dominated by economics and finance back in the sort of 70s and 80s and that's much less so now we are sort of obsessed with these culture war issues which would take attention away from the economy.

46:26I remember back in the 70s you watched the 9 o'clock news as it was then and nine times out of 10 it will be something like unemployment figures would top the news broadcasts and now that doesn't seem to happen quite so much but it isn't hard to imagine a scenario in which it would happen if we really do get taken to the cleaners by the bond markets. Well Ross Clark congratulations on your book and the right thing that you do in this difficult area and once again it's great to have you on planet in the war. Thanks so much, Liam. So there you go Alesson Ross Clark fabulous writer really could be explaining I think complex ideas in taught clear language written is vast the coming sovereign deck rises and what it means for you is published today Thursday the 10th of September by four and publishers. Ross is one of our favorite contributors is knee limb he never fails to hone in on the sort of central topic and cover it so thoroughly and he speaks so well about it and it's obviously singing from the handigan him sheet in fact at the reform conference I was bombarded by a halogen fans which was a which was a novel experience.

47:41What does me think I don't know what name things but we did we did the monkeys what Liam think was what you are I think. I did say I've taught him everything he does but obviously that bountiful evidence of exactly what Ross is talking about the one story this week the huge very very wealthy I think third of all is richest man in the country Chris Rockos. We locating to Greece and taking his 330 million pounds of taxes with him Liam which I read would pay for 46,000 nurses so the growth mission is going terribly well isn't it I mean joking aside this is absolutely dreadful isn't it losing some of our wealthiest people because of the horror now of what the budget I think is it going to be eight sort of nights. 28th of October what nasty surprises you know bus fare burn and has got installed for us but as you were in your column this week I was very interested that having got my head around the laffer curve we now have something called the J curve I think you originally read it and thought I was talking about a J Clash.

48:58I didn't want to know why is he talking about his man key kitchen. At reform conference Robert Jenric said that he wants to reform on a raise the personal allowance from roughly 12 and a half pounds 15 grams give more people tax free income and then improved incentives to work at low wages and all the rest of it. I don't actually think we got a luxury I think I want a smaller state the riders heavier than the horses keep Joseph once said yeah stage crushing everything but we've lost the privilege of being able to do upfront tax cuts because the laffer curve means that sometimes when you lower tax rates you get more tax revenue because you get more. Activity at a lower tax rate and people like Chris Rockos you mentioned don't leave the last slightly leaves the country to get more tax revenue we're now beyond the peak of the laffer curve in the UK I think taxation 70 year high and rising as a share of national income so I actually think lower tax rates will lead to more tax revenue but that's the laffer curve but there's also what we call the in economics the J curve the J curve effect is usually applied when it comes to extra.

50:10Regulations but I think it applies here to is the idea that something we're getting worse before he gets better so if you cut tax rates you know in the first instance companies might not believe that they're going to stay low and if they do believe that they then got a high more people if they want to expand out and so on so it takes time for a tax cut to bear fruit if you like in terms of more revenue in the meantime you might actually end up pouring more so financial markets have to fund your upfront. Tax cuts if you like and I think we cannot afford now to do up front tax cuts we have to have the fiscal consolidation that slow down is bending before we can do the tax cuts because the markets just won't believe that the slow down is bending will come because our political media class is so economically illiterate we've made such a mess of this in recent years even during the so called austerity years the story is 20 times 2019 yet public spending massively increased state.

51:10We've made that massively increased we bring it 850 billion quid total profflegacy just less profflegacy than it would have been so I actually disagree with reform and generic as he knows well I don't think you can afford now upfront tax cuts after the fiscal consolidation first by that you mean cuts yeah consolidate in a budget by you know raining in the size of the state and I think what you know Ross clouds with good guide he's developing an annoying habit of writing books so I think it's not going to be a good idea. I wish I'd written myself and know that I could have written if I focused on it's doing he's very driven writer and joking aside fair play to me to the string are really good books the great thing about Ross clock books is he's got a lot of technical knowledge he's very very careful searcher but they're so well written and he understands what he's talking about such an extent he can make it simple he can keep it simple and that's why they're so readable. But as you say if we listen to the BBC headlines or the channel for news the notion that anything could be cut at all is seen as total heresy and we had even at the burn them at the MQs today when Kemi was pressing him about where the money for the defense increases everybody knows we desperately need to meet a 3% or 3.5% to meet our NATO commitments and Burnham said all national security.

52:37Security can't come up the expense of social security. I think it's going to have to mate because if you don't have a national security you know if you don't meet your NATO commitments if you want to keep the housing bill at the at you know all the you know the ADHD payments ballooning into the future with you know more children who've got ADHD then don't have ADHD clearly it's far so call and incredibly dangerous but his saying that didn't send out any signal to me that he was prepared to cut anything at all so what where are we going to go Liam if they are going to say they refuse to make any cuts what's going to happen. I mean as a final word I'd say this a few months ago before we became Prime Minister Andy Burnham said you know we've got to end this thing where we're in hawk to the bond markets and I absolutely pillar them in my column and on social media so this is just completely mad. This is going to come back to buy you and it did and that very day just because he might have been Prime Minister you know you saw financial markets push up the price of UK government debt second only to that idiotic statement which he did to show leg to the labor left who he needed to become the Prime Minister say I'm so tough I'm just going to tell those bond markets to naff off because we are labor and it's the right thing to do.

54:00Plea idiocy he's just said something else at PM Jews which the markets are currently digesting I'm just looking at the point you know as we speak almost do we own now he said and this is just so ridiculous we won't be forced to choose between welfare spending and defense spending. But Andy to govern is to choose. Now to all this the emails the messages you send us a planet normal at telegraph.co.uk please keep them telling we learn so much from you citizens of planet normal. If I had a lot of terrific emails about the protest in port was in over and Rosie not her real name rights to us from the heart of port was. I'm trying to get to sleep but so aware the migrant protest and blockade are happening five minutes from my house many blue lights the sirens have gone past in the last few hours something that is keeping me awake says Rosie is the location of the R and L.I. station where it's all happening.

55:05Do you know the film Cockle shell heroes it was filmed in and around the exact location of the protests we trained Royal Marine sir for many years and have a splendid Philip Jackson sculpture of a yomper at the entrance to the old barracks which are now flats. I can't wrap my head around today's events says Rosie the fact that they would land illegal migrants on this to me very historic and precious military spot of our city. But also that defending this place has come so naturally to us port mudiants that's what portsmist are portsmist people portmudiants look at how quickly my fellow citizens rose up. We took such a battering here world war two and it seems we've inherited that wartime spirit from our grandparents almost like it's ingrained and full of emotion with it all in addition to being angry and fed up with the whole small boat issue in general. We've decided that landing these people in east knee was appropriate clearly didn't sink it through geographically the life bought both station and hailing ferry are on a narrow spit which is accessed by just not one very wide single road so easy to block.

56:15Whatever government person gave the go ahead for this clearly had no knowledge of the layout of pompie hopefully I'll get to sleep soon says Rosie best wishes to both of you and should you read this out on the brilliant podcast please keep me anonymous what we have Rosie and I've asked her Rosie to keep us posted Liam it's really valuable to have someone with so much knowledge of clearly her beloved town and Ian. Who is a managing director in portsmus regarding this weekend's new arrivals here in portsmus you may be interested to know why tensions in the city are running little high this story is currently on the portsmus news website. So deep far had as ad 33 and a rocky national of no fixed address was charged after 14 real boy was ranked in an alleyway off London road portsmus between seven and eight o'clock on says day. August the six good grief best regards Ian so that gives us a little bit of a little bit of an insight there aren't we lucky Liam to have these brilliant listeners.

57:20We are and just to fulfill our journalistic duties so deep far had as ad as you said Allison has been charged denies wrong doing. This is Nicholas to co pilots are listening to your email from Lucy the graduate working in the oil and gas sector is being forced to find work in chosen field away from these shores it made me think of my very close friend Barbara whose life has been turned upside down to her son is wife and children being forced to leave the UK. He also works for a major or company for exactly the same reasons Barbara's life revolves around the grandchildren of new she had doors on the bombshow her son dropped that he's been forced to move to Australia largely because of this government war against the oil industry is another very important facet of this dreadful drain on our country. It's not only losing a summer of our most talented workers it's causing huge familial sadness and disruption since my friend is known that her son daughter in law and grandchildren are leaving she's been so sad and depressed she's a pensioner has no chance of joining them except maybe on a buy annual visit her grandchildren or the light in her life.

58:30This man policy has snuffed it out I write you to highlight the social familial strife that is out there as well as all the other impacts of these policies best wishes Nicholas and his fill dear Allison and Liam I was moved to tears by the email you ran out from Lucy last week a mixture of anger and frustration at the situation now having the UK particularly for the younger generation in my career always tried to solve problems by standing back and seeing the entirety of them. I'm not just coming up with sicking glasses solutions I step back and try to encapsulate the UK's problem by viewing it from afar. Imagine you from you from another planet looking down at earth trying to select a country in which to set up base and to develop it into a prosperous happy society probably the best in the world. What would you look for firstly a country with no threat of natural disasters no earthquakes volcano hurricanes next to country with the temperate climate and the two not hot in the summers not too cold in the winter preferably an island to minimize outside interference a good plentiful reliable source of materials required to produce energy oil gas coal and lodging capabilities to build nuclear energy plants and newer emerging energy producing systems.

59:44A fertile soil and decent rainfall to enable crops to grow enough of the population able to do this and the knowledge and capabilities be able to constantly improve the efficiency of the process. In addition to population with a huge amount of brain capacity energy and innovative skills a large number able to absorb improved better education skills enough of the very necessary people to put their shoulders to the mill build everything now which country would you choose. I can think of the best country I would choose but it is currently unable on its own to do these things because of the stupidity and incompetence of its leaders who were referred to as the establishment fill well said fill now I wrote on in the Sunday telegraph this week about another scandal which is that the vickers in the church of England are becoming an endangered species Liam largely thanks to the church of England who got billions but the world is a lot more than just a few. I can't believe that millions but starving the vickers so people who may want to turn to a vicar in a time of need or for marriages or births or deaths increasingly there aren't any and I got we got a huge response to that.

1:00:51I can't believe that millions of people who are living in this as well remember our delightful guests Emma and the admiral who came on to talk about save the parish well worth looking up save the parish if you want to help campaign against this diminution about wonderful beautiful churches and the vickers who are there for us in time of need. Nikki says regarding Alison's piece on vickers a church warden I know frequently dips into her own pocket to help with payments for energy bills and insurance which you can imagine is very hefty especially on two listed buildings it should be said she chooses to do this but clearly feels there is little choice even though she is very elderly we are on a good day at our church as Nikki just 20 regular parishioners my husband me along with the biker and the organist in the late 50s early 60s. The rest of the late 70s and 80s churches as you may know have to provide church giving to the CAB is effective the contribution of several thousand pounds that the CAB expect to help cover the cost of our vickers salary so we might have to try and Russell up for example nine grand as a contribution and the church on backward in coming forward if they feel our contribution falls short my anger as the near miss at the CAB is sitting on billions and the Indian

1:02:09interest alone would pay the salaries of hard pressed because my vicar told me someone suggested this at the general synod and he was ever is in charge of fiscal matters had the gold as they that the church couldn't do that because they have to be prepared for the second coming that'll be expensive won't it I'd like to think he was joking but with the net higher off you the CAB who knows our church says Nikki as to spend time trying to beg at grants to cover essential repairs our lightning rod fell down in storms it was about 1500 to put back repairs to tile specialist approved builders another few thousand there but we can't say to the CAB listen we need five grand to get the fabric of the building fix and preserve a house of worship much loved they'll say try this will that group for a grant our church lives hand to mouth constantly I feel furious when the archbishop Sarah Malale is air really saying she backs the hundred million pounds for backtated slavery reparations CAB is barely able to keep its own churches going and what is it actually doing with all of its money counting the interest daily I imagine says Nikki I'm a regular church girl my fate is important to me but I am hugely dissolution with the CAB trendy woke ideology is not attracting younger people and the money they must waste on trying to be relevant I'm on the parish council for our church and honestly I don't know if the building will even

1:03:39be open in the next five years I'm sure that's the harsh reality for many churches up and down our country our vicar asked us to pray for guidance about the future because he knows what lies ahead for me it's not about prayers it's about the church actually investing in the communities and such need and in their parishioners sometimes I fear it's never going to happen best regards to you both Nikki and finally this is from Gary high else than Liam our wife and I've listened to every episode since you started during the dark days of COVID and are truly grateful for the sanity you bring to the serious issues you cover however we do love it when Liam temporarily leaves planet normal on his own personal craft and visits planet nostalgia it's a serious discussion and we thought we might prompt a few more thoughts of those more innocent days on the cartoon front does Liam remember Debbie doggie me sweetly slag will pass and Huckleberry hound I certainly do on the food and drink front does you remember bar six toffos a man's got a chew a man's got a chew

1:04:43but both the puff snowballs munchies best the curries vinders crispy pancakes a Tesla plate for you Vimto never liked it tab and Cresta is funny man with the polar bear with the sunglasses remember he got black car and Cresta that was the fruit of the gods ice cream you remember ice poles funny faces fab rockets and mivies no doubt Liam will have a number of others up his sleeve but thought these might give him a memory of jog on a more serious note well done to Allison for the outcome of a recent case against the s explicit crime commissioner you showed a tremendous amount of courage during what must have been a traumatic period says Gary the right result in the end keep up the great work that you do both in bringing common sense and expert insight into the topics covered and on that bombshell that's a plan normal as we leave our sanctuary of street reason our flying with each of reason views email week is my turn and I'm going to go back to the top and give it to Rosie not her real name in port with yeah Rosie please do send us an email

1:05:47at my normal tell your okay put mug winner in the subject heading and gives you a postal dress and a rare as rocking horse to plan normal mug will wing its way to you my favorite lolly was fab because it's always bit sophisticated because it had hundreds of all your favorite lolly I like mini milks of course I can make a mini milk blast about two hours I think we should just just abandon this politics I just do your backporn things like mini milks and phanta and skateboard and swing ball I think then to my theories those of us who were raised on the fenders crispy pancake will never die because we've got so much preservative not for teased if you enjoy this episode of planet normal with jolly well hope you have please subscribe and leave us a review on a rating wherever you listen to the music video and I was more of a bird's arpeith bird goes man mistelf is good by for me and it's good by from him