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About this Episode
Tim Miller and JVL are going live to cover the massive increase in oil prices roiling markets right now.
Hosts & Guests
Transcript
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Hey everybody, I'm Tim Miller of the Bullwark.
Here's my buddy Jonathan V. Last, author of the Triad Newsletter.
You can get it at theborg.com.
We are live right now, Sunday, March 8th at 6.30 Central time.
Yeah, look, JBL is eating dinner.
Is it the stock market?
No, it's the stock market going up.
That is not the stock market going up.
No, that is-
Is it my 401k going up?
That is crude oil.
That is not your 401k going up.
That is the price of crude oil, the barrel, which has an impact on gas price you might imagine.
Anyway, we are sitting around.
JBLs have a dinner and I text them like, have you seen the gas futures?
The oil and gas futures, yeah, he had it.
And I was like, it's like, I've never seen a chart like it.
It's like a full erection.
It's like a full tent in one second.
The future is open for tomorrow.
And we've gone from what, what is that?
Like 70 or something, 70, 80?
My eyes are struggling.
They're 90?
Like 90?
Yeah, 90, all the way up over 100, peaked around 111 now.
We're settling down around 106.
We'll explain to you guys why that matters and what those numbers mean if you're not, you know, a futures trader.
But at the top level, JBL, it seems like the street, the market, the investors,
not thrilled with the fallout from the Iran war.
I should mention also, Dow futures are down about 2% right now.
Just a little under 2% as we're talking right now.
So we'll take a little, man, this seems pretty bad.
Trump has responded to that and you know this is bad because Trump has already sent a panic bleed about it.
But before we get to that, oh, well, let's do that.
We'll show Trump and then we'll get JBL given his opening words.
Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly
when the destruction of Iran nuclear threat is over.
Are we sure about that?
It's a very small price to pay for a USA and world safety and peace.
Only fools will think differently.
Call me a fool, JBL.
What do you think?
We'll go back to the oil price thing.
I want it kind of a ticker up so we can all watch it together.
You know, just sort of watch the money go out of our pockets together as the prices sort of pop up and down here.
But JBL thoughts on the implication of this and whether Mr. Trump's spin is going to land for people.
Well, I mean, the good news is the Iranian nuclear threat was already completely and totally obliterated.
So these short term prices will go down any minute.
The bad news is that because it can go from completely obliterated to imminent in five months,
even if we eliminate it totally again.
I mean, who can say what could happen five months from now to him?
They can just spin it right back up.
It's a, I don't know.
I, I want this.
I want this more than I've wanted anything, maybe in my entire life, Tim.
I guess it's just for people.
Yes.
Yes.
Yeah, okay, great.
This is like avian flu driving the price of eggs up to up to $9 a dozen or something,
except it's like that.
If Trump had said I want to make an avian flu, can you do an avian flu for me?
The Trump had given the other bird the flu of Trump with patients zero out of the avian flu.
If he had said RFA, I want you to make a, make a flu.
I want the eggs to be priced a million.
And I, this is what America wanted.
This is what America voted for.
Now, because it's me, the way my life works, because I'm sure that we will get America
looking at this and then just going in the way that again, because the price of eggs
went up, America decided we should try giving the presidency back to the guy who attempted
a coup, because eggs are so expensive, it's the most important thing ever.
And I, I just think that, I mean, who knows what people might be willing to do looking
at a chart like this, because it's a real kitchen table issue.
I disagree with you.
I think that Trump is in a world of hurt right now, and I think is panic, I think his
panic bleat emphasizes that Chris Wright, his energy secretary said on Fox today that
these prices are a small price to pay to get a world where energy prices are returned
back to where they were.
And I'm talking wings, he's talking wings, not months.
I don't, I, we've said a pretty high bar for Trump only, but the back of the Trump
saying, I'm just going to read it, he wants to, he said it's a small price to pay for
USA world and USA and world safety and peace is world peace, the object are objective right
now.
I thought that we weren't going to be the world's police, I was sure we were not cared
about that anymore.
Yeah.
It doesn't do us any good.
So now we're going to be the world's policeman and in exchange for that, a small price to
pay.
Let's go back to the chart.
Let's see.
I like to see the little chart go up.
Okay.
Whoop little pencil dick pop or straight up, I mean, it's, it's truly an astonishing amount.
As I said at the top, like what the just kind of contextualize this, are you a watch
of the show Landman?
I don't believe you are.
You're not.
I'm sorry.
I don't do serious television, Timothy.
I know.
Land and Landman, they're oil, they're oil people and the main character, it's fucking
main character's name.
It's a Sunday night.
That's what's called Tommy Lee Jones, three names that just Billy Bob Thornton is telling
the young lawyer who's cutting her teeth, you know, about the oil business and he says
to her, you know, 60 to 90, that's our sweet spot, because at 90 bucks, we're still making
money.
People are starting to feel a little bit of pain.
If you go up over 90, if you get up into the 100s, that means the cost everything
goes up.
Not just gas prices, but food prices go up because gas pollution, we transport the food
on trucks, plastics, like everything starts to go up, everybody starts to feel pain and
then even the oil guys start to feel pain because consumers buy less, et cetera, et cetera,
Adam Smith, you know, supply and demand.
So the number there is not great at 105 and we're already seeing prices of the pump go
up a little bit, but it's going to keep going.
Nate Silver, not a big, you know, not a big apologist for Trump or not, excuse me, not
a big podcast for the Democrats or other Friday and slip, he said there's never started
a bombing campaign that will complete the straight of our moves is a classic blunder.
But when he gets into the math, you know, he says that gas prices are up about 40%.
And you know, and he thinks it's going to get worse for weeks now.
He does, he's making the newsletter analysis of it where it's like, you can't just turn
this stuff back on, they've, they've increased about 50% or excuse me, 50 cents since we're
worth a run, but they're expected to spike much, much further, you know, we're looking
at gas, including his chart up at up close to five bucks again, again, and yeah, I think
that's where we're headed, important to underscore this.
The reason prices are up is because you have a massive logistical disruption, right?
You can't, the normal flow of petroleum from one place to another has been disrupted.
And because of that, you then have her fineries, they're stopping producing and everything
gets backed up then because they don't have anywhere to put the oil.
Once you block up the supply chain like this, it doesn't wreck it forever.
But even if the Strait of Hormuz was totally opened tomorrow, it would take some amount
of time for everything to unwork itself, right, to, to, for the system to unkink itself.
And so you would be feeling this for some days or weeks.
The longer it goes on, the longer you'll feel the effects of the supply chain disruption
even once it stops.
And I mean, I got a cap and a bell and I talked about this on Friday to him.
This is the stupidest thing I think I've ever seen from an American president.
So the, he planned this war and the assumption was we won't have to worry about oil prices
because we can prevent the Iranians from mining the Strait of Hormuz.
And so the idea was like, we know that our guns can stop them from getting their Navy
out and mining the Strait, which means traffic will be fine.
And nobody in this operation said actually, sir, excuse me, sir, you see all of these
companies that send large ships through that they need what's called maritime insurance
because the ships themselves are very expensive and then the cargo's they're holding are
really quite precious and, and they can't assume that sort of risk without being insured
and then the insurers are reinsured.
And so if insurers decide that they can't shoulder that risk, then it might as well
be mined.
Nobody said, I just, right, Tim is the dumbest fucking thing I've ever seen in my life.
We're going to get back to being the dumbest thing you've ever seen in your life.
We're going to put a pin in that for a second.
I just want to talk a little bit more about the brass tax here.
In addition to what you just said, even if he's quick or even if they somehow secured
the straight-of-formist tomorrow or he quit the whatever, I think cuts some deal tomorrow.
You know, it's still it's still it take weeks, as you said.
But that's like not what's happening.
I mean, it was it's raining oil in Iran today because the Israelis hit, I guess, 30 different
targets related to oil production and containment, etc. in Iran.
There's an axiastory tonight about how the truck guys were like, you didn't get our approval
for that.
That's sorry.
Yeah, maybe a little more attention.
Who's the senior partner in this war, Tim?
Seems like the senior partner to me is Israel, but you know, and I probably, I have pretty
good sense for kind of who's the top and who's the bottom in a very, in a situation like
this.
And so there's that, so I mean, again, Iranian production, that doesn't really affect
us because we're not going to get ready.
But as far as the global oil is concerned, that now is going to take a really long time.
The Iranians are like Kuwait's, they've hit Kuwait, you know, Kuwait is not a cutter
rather excuse me, cutter, not Kuwait, it's not their natural gas, you know, has been
hit.
Yeah.
You know, they've been hitting targets in Saudi, UAE.
And so like, you know, I bet that it is liable to get actually much worse, not not get
secured tomorrow.
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Yeah, I just want to put this in some historical perspective.
Yeah.
Let's bring up this chart.
Okay.
Okay.
And are we putting this up or am I just going to touch it?
Yeah.
I don't know.
Okay.
So, you know, we have the Iranian Revolution, which are people who are older than, you
know, 40 might remember people in line for gas, everything went crazy, 5 million barrels,
5.6 million barrels per day of production was lost.
Now, global production is higher because global demand is higher.
It's not really apples to apples.
But we're now looking at like 20 million barrels per day, shut off.
And I, you know, I see people saying, well, it doesn't matter because America is energy
independent.
We, we pump all the oil we need.
It is a global commodities market.
Do you mother fuckers not understand how these things work?
If you are an American oil producer and the price of oil is $106 per barrel everywhere
else, you are not going to say, well, we'll only sell it to American customers for $60
per barrel.
Right.
You, that's how commodities prices work.
Right.
The other thing to flag on this, like this history, I just showing you like the impact that
Iran in particular has here, and the second largest one is Iranian Revolution.
And the fifth one is Iran, Iraq war.
Right.
You know, this is, it's because they sit on a straight Tim, it's not the transit.
Like this is again, it's just, it's geography.
And so for the people who sat there, well, you know, they only do about 4% of the global
total production as if the only thing that matters is production.
It is the most we're playing checkers while everybody else plays chess thing I've ever
said.
Right.
You're not even knowing that.
And Trump are just like sitting around eating the pieces.
Yeah.
It's insane.
The most incompetent governance I've ever seen in my life, except for maybe how the president
handled the COVID response.
Like if you now think about two of the worst failures in the federal government, any of
us have ever seen both under Trump.
Great.
The head, the headset on SNL last night said you guys are playing chess, we're playing
Grand Theft Auto.
Which I thought that was pretty good.
Can we pull back out the chart?
I want to pull back the gas price to chart one more time and take us back out.
I want to show us a week and then show us 10 years to give everybody a little bit of
perspective.
So here's a week.
Woo.
Boy, it seems like once we started that war thing, we got so good.
So yeah, prices were going up immediately with this huge jump today.
Now just to give us like a broader context, let's go back 10, like let's look at the 10
year here.
Yeah, click on the 10 year.
Thank you.
Okay.
What?
Like five years basically of law of, you know, going the right direction, just completely
wiped out in one hour tonight.
Yeah.
Like, you know, prices were going down, down, down, basically, you know, up and down,
but down basically for the last half decade.
And it spikes up entirely in one hour.
And if you see that other spike there, 2022, the only point where it's higher than it
is right now, that is the post-COVID inflation and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
That's those are happening simultaneously.
And so we're having some supply chain issues, you know, in addition to geopolitical issues.
And JVL, like to your point, politically, that last spike quite damaging for Joe Biden.
So I know you're skeptical that this could hurt Trump, but it seems, it seems like a
bad strategy to do something that would make the charts go right back to the area that
caused a lot of political problems for your predecessor.
And Trump chose this.
This is again, like, this is a thing that nobody except for BB Netanyahu asked for.
Nobody.
Really?
Right?
And I.
Well, there are a couple of, you know, pro-Israel advocates in America.
They are asking for war right now.
Like I just, you know, like, look, I'm all for, you know, exposing the Iranian regime in
some way.
I have questions for you, though, because I don't understand.
And Trump is surprising me a little bit here.
Same.
That's what I want to talk about.
I would assume, based on the way tariffs went, where the tariffs were always there on
their huge, and then a day and a half later, they're off, or they're delayed, or, you
know, like everything was, you know, one of the reasons inflation from tariffs was less
than people expected.
It was because the tariffs almost, like, only a fifth of the tariffs went into a fact
or something.
Bloomberg did a big count on this, you know, but a very small minority of proposed tariffs
wherever actually in place.
I would have thought that Trump would see this and just say, great news, we won.
It was the strongest victory anybody has ever achieved.
Many people said it couldn't be done.
It was historic, but we now have complete and total peace everywhere and blah, blah, blah,
blah, blah, blah.
It's over and just walks away.
I'm shocked.
He is not only not doing that, but he seems to, he seems like he's doubling down on stuff
in ways that, again, likening it to tariffs are not the way he approached bad outcomes.
I'm also surprised.
We talked about this.
It took us a little bit with Derek Thompson on Thursday's show, and he was comparing him
to kind of a hot gambler, like he thinks that he's on tilt was the phrase, gambling phrase,
you know, where he's just like, you know, he went all in on the poker table a few times
and he kept winning.
And so now he's, now he's just like throwing chips around.
This is good of a guess as any, because I have to tell you, our friend over at Pots
of America, John Favreau put it this way, let's get this right, he just tweeted this
right before we came on, seven dead Americans, hundred bucks of barrel oil, billions of
dollars a day being spent on a massive war that so far replaced an 86 year old tyrant
with his son, and that's a good summary.
And I looked at that and I was like, I got to tell you, one of the favorite things for
people to comment on pot shows like this is, is how could you be surprised by this?
Now, I really like to say, I saw this coming, why are you guys surprised?
I'm like, I'm not usually surprised and sometimes like the nature of late things happen
are surprising, like the details, but like the general thrust of what we've seen from
the Trump administration in Trump 2.0, maybe I'm an outlier on this, but it's been like
a hair better than I expected.
And like I was in, I have Trump's range of syndrome, I was in catastrophic territory,
like I assumed, I assumed that they would have been able to jail one of their political
foes by now for starters, right?
Like this, the bad stuff that's happened, the tariffs, guys and masks shooting people
on the streets, they're horrible, but like that was all in my kind of personal mental
mental.
Yeah, I was like my mental threat profile, this is, this is fucking stupider than even
I expected.
I have TDS, I think that Trump is a moron, like I think that he is one of the stupidest
people that I've ever encountered that is judgment is horrible, I assume that the
administration was going to be a shit show.
And yet he's managed to do something that is like below what, like the TDS line, like
below what my expectations were, I don't get it, I really don't.
And then the people, sometimes what you're healed for people is what they'll say is like,
well, this is an Epstein distraction.
It's like, there's literally nothing in the Epstein files that could possibly be worse
than what he's doing right now, like literally, if he was a serial rape politically, yeah,
politically, if it was a serial rapeist of 13 year olds, I think that his poll numbers
would end up being higher than if gas goes to 150 and people keep dying in the Middle
East.
Like I just, I think that it's a, it's extreme, extremely politically stupid and risky.
And I'm, I'm not kind of blown away by how dumb it is.
I could, it's truly unbelievable.
All right.
So let me, let me play devil's ad.
Please do.
I think I agree with you.
So I'm proposing this only for the sake of argument.
Yeah, sure.
Let's try to hash it out.
Yeah.
All right.
And the midterms look catastrophically bad for Republicans, from what we can tell right
now.
Yeah.
And the signs that you see, like the tremors that come before the earthquake with retirements
and special elections and whatnot, it looks, it looks very, very bad.
Having a hostile Congress does slightly endanger Trump in terms of accountability and it doesn't
stop him from things he can do because that he wants because he doesn't need or want
Congress for passing anything, he's not a legislator.
But if this is all part and parcel with establishing preconditions for an emergency, in order to
try to blunt the right, like, hey, like, how much worse could it get for me in November?
If I was already going to lose 60 seats in the house, who cares if I lose 75, maybe if
I shake up the etch a sketch like this and we put in some emergency provisions and we
try to do this or that, who knows, maybe we can draw to an inside straight and hold on
to the Senate and to have the house be much more manageable.
It's a theory worth discussing because that's at least rational.
I mean, it's crazy, but it's rational from the perspective of Donald Trump, right?
That's something I could see Stephen Miller coming up.
Yeah.
Okay.
But like, again, I just think that if you're going to try to create an emergency that will
give you a pretext to fuck with the elections, the list of things I would try, I mean, what
about, for me to start bombing people, like, what about bombing Mexican gangs on the border
or something?
Yeah.
You know what I mean?
I mean, now would at least not to give them any ideas, but like I could come up with some
other things that would be more politically interested at salient, possibly at least
principally popular.
This is, this is to me just absolutely, I could madness.
It's the actions of a madman.
Are you surprised that you're just pretty concerning?
Try to do a ran before Cuba.
Yeah.
I am too.
I thought you'd do that.
No, why not just go to Cuba next and then like have a ran be the capstone.
Well, this is, this is what goes back to being the junior partner, right?
And like this comes down to is that BB basically said, hey, we know where the I told it is
on Saturday.
And like that, that the most credible reporting about credible, I mean, the reporters
have the best sources inside this white house.
That's what they say.
I basically, that's the report that like BB is like, hey, let's roll on Saturday because
we know where, how many is and he's going to be with his other top guys and shocking
on and fuck it.
Yolo, let's be legends.
I just, I think that that's what happened.
There is weirdness of some sort of Trump hates, hates other people getting rich off of
him.
Right.
Like, this was the Kristine Olmson.
This was Brad, what's his face?
We got exile here.
Right.
You know, if you go out and start getting rich without giving him a taste, that's when
he loses his shit.
That's kind of what the Israelis have done here.
Like they have come in and they've used Trump to accomplish their aims.
And I don't know.
Has Israel given him a $300 million, a $300 million Jeff?
That was getting way more to cutter and UAE and, and it is weird to me that Trump doesn't
seem to have any, like he's just right or die with Netanyahu in ways that I don't fully
understand.
I mean, I'm not trying to be coy here, like I'm not trying to find anything that I, you
know.
No, I don't think that's what's happening.
I think that he's been made for a mark.
I was 10744.
Look at that.
For people who come onto the livestream, late JBL is the one, maybe you tell us in the comments
if he's not the only one, the one person in America cheering the gas price.
I'm the Joker.
I'm the Joker here with the big pile of money and I just want to set it on fire and
I want to rub America's nose in it.
And I, because the only way anybody else that are really the house that much, you know,
you keep things close to the home ranch.
So you're going to drive kids to practices and stuff, like I'm going to pay for the gas.
I just don't give a fuck, like it's a small price to pay in order to get the mouth breathers
who made this happen to America to experience some consequences.
I'm just, do you think he pulls the, do you think he pulls the plug and just like walks
away?
Because that would fuck Israel.
That's the problem.
Right.
Like him just leaving mid war and saying these kids are, I don't know, I, no, I don't think
so.
I, here's the other thing.
Here's the thing.
Okay.
We're looking at this through kind of ironically, the America first lens.
Like we're looking at this through a political lens, through an economic lens.
What is the impact of this on our people?
If you look at this through like a video game lens, like like we, I'm playing a military
video game.
Right.
We're crushing them.
Right.
It's been.
Yeah.
If you're, right, if you're grading this just on like, you know, video game on explosion
maxing.
Yeah.
We're crushing them on explosion maxing.
And you know, the, and I think that what is in action, yes, again, I just have to keep
going to the people that seem to have the best sources is that they are looking at that
island in the Persian Gulf.
What's called again, or whatever, they're looking at potentially seizing that and trying
to secure it.
And then, and then seizing some of the oil assets inside or I think that before ducking
tail, they're going to try to take control of the straight.
Let me, let me give you one more piece of evidence on that.
Probably Gasparino.
You know that guy?
Yeah.
He's a total hack over at Fox business.
But they, people, people talk to him, say this all the time, it's like men in black, you
got to read the tabloids.
Yeah.
For the news.
That's what the news is.
Okay.
Here's Gasparino.
Come on.
One more.
One more.
One more.
Coming up on one away, Tim.
Okay.
Gasparino says don't care.
Come on.
Any traders are imbecils.
They trade off headlines.
Totally myopic.
Short term thinking.
They always screw up.
They're ever seeing around corners.
You like to see around corners?
It was the case in the run of 2008 and there's more than a few market rallies for the whole
thing blew up.
This oil price spike has the same feel to it.
It's not considering that within days, we will 100% control the supply of oil coming
out of the straits of our moves.
Spelled wrong.
Or that Iran will be 100 decapitated.
It's typo.
Decapitated means as a military force and find the answer of terror, there'll be peace
dividend to all of that.
Meanwhile buckle up as the carons who control oil prices have their say at least for
now.
That's gasparino.
I think that's what they think though.
He's bourbon white women control oil prices.
I don't know, but we're not dealing with rational actors.
And I think that right now they think okay, our military guys have been great.
Let's try to take over the, let's try to take control of the Persian Gulf and the
strait.
And we'll use American troops to protect the tankers as they come through.
I think that's what they're going to try before they try believing.
I think it's hard to predict because this is also stupid, but that's where I'm at.
Did anybody pay attention to what happened when the Ukrainians sunk the flagship of the
Russian black sea fleet?
Right?
It was the musket.
I think it was.
And they did it with a drone.
You know, they they sunk this very expensive heavy freezer with something that cost a few
thousand dollars.
That's the problem is the asymmetry here, which is that the Ukrainians don't need to
to drop sea mines.
They don't need to have capital ships.
They just need to create enough of a threat with drones to make it not economically viable
for individuals who own these ships or on the cargo to take the risk.
Like, I mean, again, it's just, it's just economics.
It's just economics.
Well, it's also just military.
It's also just like where we're at, like militarily, but it can't, it's not, they don't
sure.
We are doing great on the scoreboard of like missiles taken out, you know, like we've
taken out a lot of their ballistic missiles.
It seems like, you know, if you're looking at the, the, the, the accent, you know, you're
reading the, you know, the military dork, social media feeds and blogs, like we've taken
out a lot of the missiles, but as you create, as you crane showed, this day and age, you
know, like these small drones, I can do a ton of damage.
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So here, here's my, again, I just go back to it, right?
So it is the case that America does have a great deal of leverage over the Iranian regime.
And if Trump were to go to Iran and give them something, like something of real material
benefit to them, for instance, in eight to ten months, we'll begin easing sanctions
on, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, on oil or something, or we'll find a pathway to
you for you to enrich uranium for, and we'll just say it's all for energy production.
If he were to give the Iranian something, I think a new new regime there with a new
Iatola would probably be pretty willing to let him say face and to say, you know, we're
seeking a ceasefire or he can say it's a tremendous victory.
We got they gave us everything we wanted, even if that's not the case, right?
I just sort of say why he wouldn't do that?
Because that's the Trumpian way to do it, right?
That is, that is typically how he doesn't actually care about the Iranian people, so you
don't need to make sure that that doesn't, you don't need to find somebody that, yeah.
And so that's the weirdest thing about this, which is that every hour this war goes on,
the only reason it's going on is because he wants it to, or because it's real wants
it to pick one, I mean, when we say war of choice, like he really does have the power
to probably just shut the thing down whenever he wants to, and it's just wild to me.
Yeah.
Well, if you think that we're just a bunch of TDS-addled, the Ambi-Pambees, you know,
kind of panicking, we're panikins out here, here's the Wall Street Journal.
Just popped.
The long-feared Persian Gulf oil squeeze is upon us.
Traffic through the straightforward moves has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the
most severe energy crisis since the 1970s and threatening the global economy.
Yeah.
Well, they must be stupid over there too with their TDS.
I, you know, this is again, I just want to find all the silver linings here, Tim.
Sure.
Wouldn't it be funny if the misadventure in Iran made it so that Marco never got to do
regime change in Cuba?
If this one is so sideways and the fallout from this was so bad, the Trump was like,
you know, fuck it.
We're not doing that again.
While we're doing, Marco didn't get Cuba, which his entire life, Marco gave up his entire
life because he decided, I'm going to play the long game.
This is end, and we're going to get free Cuba.
I love it.
I've got a different type of end of my vein, shot and voida.
And JD Vance, the vice president, I mean, it's going to be pretty tough for him to make
the case that he was the, he was the national, he was the American first one in there.
You know, what do you do?
He is in a massive bind.
And this is honestly a worst case scenario for him, I think, politically speaking for protecting
his brand.
He's been pretty deft navigating the MAGA nationalists, corporate, Republican divide,
very tough for him.
He's been nowhere.
You might notice that he was supposed to have a CBS town hall.
I believe next week, this coming week was very, very, very, very, very, very, very,
well, he was, he was going to, but that was canceled.
Oh, and I was thinking to my mind, I was like, who do I think canceled that?
Barry, because she doesn't want anyone on the network that is not a full or on-war
propagandist or JD, because he couldn't defend his own administration's war, either way
kind of delicious.
So coming up on 108.50 figures crossed, I will say this about JD, I think he's in a stronger
position than maybe you're suggesting here, because he is personally close to the most
likely true America first challengers, right?
I mean, he and Tucker are like this.
I am sure that JD is repping to all of the America first people in their signal chats
that, guys, you got no idea how bad it is.
I'm in there fighting every minute of every day to try to get Lindsey Graham out of here
and try to turn the old man around.
And you have no idea how bad it would be if I was a tough sell to, that's a tough sell
to the podcast, bros though.
That's going to be a tough sell to the base.
What's one sell?
You know, the road against the road against the ministry, but not the type of podcasters
who are going to determine the next nominee, right?
And if you're JD, all you really care about is who holds the nomination, because you
want to control the party, whether you become president or not is immaterial, you know,
I do wonder, do you think any of this augurs more towards Trump feeling like you need to
demand a third term, Kennedy said it, Kennedy said it this weekend.
Who else has been saying it, Tim?
Who else has been saying it for six years?
This guy.
Okay.
We'll go through for folks who may, so we'll take your, your comments, your questions,
if you're on YouTube, your super chats and, um, but, uh, sub-stack folks comments as
well.
If you're here being JBL popped on, because I've never really seen a chart like that.
Like you might, if you're not a chart reader, you might think this straight up line there
was like denoting, you know, something like maybe where the day began or something that
that's, no.
So that's the price of oil in like one minute, as soon as futures open today, uh, an
unbelievable, uh, uh, spike up there.
And so Jamie knows I went into, we wanted to chat about it a little bit.
I'm throwing you one more before you move on.
Can I throw you one more idea, uh, just, just while we're spitballing, what if the real
responsibility for this goes to the Nobel committee and had they only given him the stupid
prize?
He wouldn't have felt the need to do this.
But what if all of this is him acting out after being denied his Nobel Peace Prize?
If we had simply all just given him what he demanded, in the same way, like, you know,
he wouldn't have had to do a coup if he had just been re-elected and he wouldn't have
had to, uh, he could have been re-elected if we'd all just let him do all the, uh,
the shit.
No way.
Yeah.
There's something about that.
There's something.
It's like your child.
That's kind of a, I have different parenting strategies in my husband, you know, uh, when
she's having a tantrum, sometimes I'm like, just give it, just, who cares?
Like, that's just, let's just give her what she wants so we can move on and enjoy our
dinner.
He is more on the spite and principle side of things, um, which is correct, by the way,
he has, his way is correct.
But if the norwegians had acted a little more like me, maybe we wouldn't be here.
It's a good point.
Um, one actually had one other thing I forgot to mention before you had to, uh, the,
your, your chats and questions and comments, um, the, uh, there's one other news item
tonight, uh, which is out of Saudi.
I think they're bad everywhere.
I, I guess, like, hey, there's a problem throughout the Kansas City airport that every other
airport, they're, um, they're very long lines because we're still on a DHS shutdown.
So like, an addition of things going bad here, there's also, uh, a terrorist effort, uh,
attack.
I guess I was an attempted terrorist talking, I should say outside of Gracie Mansion in
New York.
Um, so, you know, we have a, the homeland threats are spiking.
In addition to that, uh, New York Times reporting that American employees of the US Embassy
in Saudi Arabia have been told to leave the country under mandatory departure orders,
issued by the State Department, I guess because they don't think that they can protect
the embassy, uh, which has already been a target from Iran.
So not great.
I, uh, Saudi, I guess, supposed to be our ally there.
Not great that, that they're so in danger in Saudi Arabia that we have, you know, it's
mandatory.
You must leave if you work there, um, let's, you want to, you want a nightmare fuel?
Yeah.
Think about what happens if there is a domestic terror attack here.
Yeah.
In the near future.
Well, or else, or us like, I was so, I got myself so mad today.
I almost sent us a, a, a tweet, but I, I listened to the inner JVL and I just, you know, went
up, moved on.
But I was like, think about all the people in this administration and support of this
administration who kept doing like old man, Biden's doing World War three because he's
giving Ukraine some defensive weapons.
Like what we, what we have done in the last week, I'm not the one here to be like World
War three is imminent.
But I, if you have a threat meter for likelihood of World War three, um, the, the, the needles
moved up quite a bit more in the last week than I did when Joe Biden gave defensive weapons
to Ukraine.
Anyway, fuck these people.
Um, to the question, Shambhalek asked, can the Bullock sell some, I did that Trump
vant stickers so I can cover the Biden ones at the gas station.
Somebody should.
Oh, yes.
They are actually already on sale.
I've seen them on Etsy and eBay and I am not encouraging vandalism in any way.
So I hope they're easily peel offable stickers.
Me too.
But, um, Robert Ward offered another theory.
Could Trump be doing this to shave, save Putin's cash flow?
Uh, again, it's so stupid.
I'm open to kind of like what he's doing is so stupid.
I'm open to totally crazy theories.
I did note that when Shuzi Wiles was like, Hey, we need to do something to help with gas
prices this week.
The very first thing they did was, uh, uh, e-sections on Russia.
It's like, that's idea one, um, well, we got to help them out so that maybe Russia will
stop giving targeting intelligence to Iranians and helping them kill American soldiers.
JBL.
Well, this forced Trump or anyone else is in his regime to rethink renewables.
That's a, that's a, that's an optimistic take, moral lawyer.
No.
Um, Jason agrees with JBL.
He's waiting for all Americans needed to tell him, no, I'm waiting for all Americans
need to tighten their belts for freedom.
Should be all.
That's the spiel he wants to come freedom from once.
It's a good question.
I don't know.
Karen.
Be like, uh, you know, like they don't need 18 dolls.
A little girl needs like one doll of two dolls, you know, you need a gallon of gas.
What do you need a full tank for?
Karen Fletcher.
Trust me.
My name is Karen and I have no control over oil prices.
Thank you, Karen.
Uh, I'm saving as the next one I have.
I'm saving up for very last good.
It's going to be like a little dessert for JBL tie.
Let me just tell you, tie question you asked is very JBL bait, uh, Teresa spelled like
my mother's tree.
So not a lot of people felt like the THER ESC.
So that's you mom.
Hey, um, Trump is more maniacal by the day.
We dismiss the market reaction or taco.
It's what we've been talking about.
Uh, historically, the signs of point to taco, but I don't, uh, I don't, I don't think
so right now.
I don't think he's going to.
So that's my tech.
Um, over here on to sub stack folks, Jeff wants to know if we're great again yet.
Not me.
Um, at Alicia wants to know how many Congress are invested in oil futures.
It's the only way to be making money in the market right now if you're invested oil
futures.
So it's something to look into.
Um, uh, Al brings up.
So all of this is just returned to energy prices where they were not cheaper like $60
or more oil barrels.
And that's what we showed you the 10 year.
And it's, it's taking oil prices back basically where we were during the 2022 inflation spike.
Um, that's much higher than kind of a work itself out.
That's the other thing like it.
It should be a short term thing.
Because again, there is no structural problem here.
This is a man-made catastrophe.
Trump literally did this.
It isn't like, oh, there's a new war happening.
And we can't make Putin stop attacking Ukraine.
And that's messing up the pipeline.
This is just.
Trump could declare victory tomorrow.
And four weeks or two months later, everything will be back to normal because we'd work through the supply chain jam ups.
It's just by choice.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Well, I guess I would caveat that that he could try that.
And in theory, things we get back to normal in about a month.
Iran would have a say in it.
Yeah.
We have to bribe them.
Yeah.
Right.
I mean, he'd have to offer Iran.
And Iran would have to.
Iran would then exit.
And this is sort of what I have thought.
And the.
All right.
Can I just have 30 seconds here, Tim?
You can have 30 seconds.
And then we're going to go to you for the final comment.
Okay.
So I believe that this war was likely to happen starting like the day I first got a text from my buddy who said,
Hey, I'm down in Tennessee and a bunch of my friends who are air national guard or just getting called up.
And what they do is they do long range refueling.
And they're being told to be prepared to be away for some time.
That says to me Iran.
And I think I put this in Slack.
I said to you guys, hey guys, like really.
And the reason I thought it was likely would go is because all three parties to this were incentivized to fight.
And Israel had something it wants to do.
Trump has something he wants to do because he now thinks that he is the king of the world and just reach in and change things.
And the Iranians from their perspective believed that they could absorb a bunch of body blows.
But that in the short term to medium term.
Trump would be so incentivized to get out that he'd be willing to cut a deal with them.
Which is kind of what happened after the 12th day war, right?
You remember that?
And so that they felt that they were in a bad position negotiation wise.
And that they could be in a better position by absorbing some pain.
Yeah.
And I mean, I got to say that looks about right to me.
And I think they are still likely.
If you're Iran, you're more likely to exit this in a stronger position than you went in.
You'll have absorbed a bunch of pain.
You have lost a bunch of emissions, et cetera, et cetera.
But you will have a framework of something that will make the regime stronger.
Well, that's exciting.
The final comment question is from Ty T.A.I.
And Jamie and I were talking about this in the green room where, you know, getting a livestream set up for everybody.
And he was just on one about this.
And I wouldn't have expected it to come up in the comments because we're not talking about Venezuela, but here it is.
Well, close with this question from Ty to Jonathan Villanaste.
Where is Machado these days?
Oh, you know, it's such a great question, Ty.
The Wall Street Journal had a piece about her this weekend.
And she is trying to get back into Venezuela, having some trouble getting back into Venezuela.
She has been...
For people that don't know, can you just remind people of the players here?
Marie Machado is the Venezuelan democracy avatar who bravely stood against the Maduro regime.
And really was pushing on Trump and the Neocons and his administration to do something about Maduro.
And then after Maduro got kidnapped, and Del Sierri's guess got put in, she went to the White House and gave her Nobel Peace Prize to Donald Trump.
Well, in a frame with testimony about Simon Bolivar and the great...
This amazing man, Donald Trump, will be a hero to Venezuela forever.
And Donald Trump yanked her Nobel Peace Prize from her and gave her literally a little gift bag with his name on it and sent her out the door and has had nothing to do with her ever since.
And she has been made completely and totally irrelevant.
And it is very clear that this administration views her as nothing but a liability and an annoyance.
They are very happy with Del Sierri Riga's who has decided to trade her hold on power for doing whatever errands the Trump administration needs her to do.
And how does that make you feel?
It makes me feel so good.
I love it.
It makes me feel like I need a cigarette, Tim.
And let me tell you why.
I understand that when you are attempting to lead a movement or you are ahead of state or an aspiring head of state, you often have to deal with unsavory people.
And you have to say things which otherwise you might not be willing to say or want to say.
You are doing a lot of taking one for the team.
I get that.
We see the lot of mirrors in Linsky when he comes to America.
He often says nice things about Trump that you can tell he are killing him to do.
But he feels like I have to say this and humiliate myself for my people.
I understand that.
All I ask is that you live not by lies.
And what this woman Maria Machado did was come into America and lie to Americans about their president and attempt to make this man who was in the process of having American citizens shot in the street by his masked secret police trying to present him to Americans.
Americans as a great lover of freedom and democracy.
You know what, Maria Machado.
Fuck off.
Well, back to Venezuela.
Enjoy your relevance and I hope nothing bad happens to you while you're there.
But to come in and to try to aid Donald Trump's authoritarian project in America in the hopes that he will help you end the Maduro and Chavismo authoritarian project in Venezuela.
Having a turnout that authoritarian is going to authoritarian is delicious.
I love it.
Live not by lies, baby.
Boom.
Well, that's wonderful.
All right.
We'll take us out one more time for you.
This is the gas price chart that the oil price chart, which obviously relate to the gas prices.
You'll see that in the pump.
Big spike up.
It's kind of around even that's going up a little more and back now.
We'll see how it goes in the morning.
Can we see just for counter?
What does the Dow futures look like?
Oh, that's these are going the other way.
No, you know, oil prices.
That just says by the dip by the dip by the dip.
It just means you're getting a discount, Tim.
We do seem to be below my.
It's hard for me to see them all teleprone to that.
We seem to be quite a bit below 50,000.
So the good news is we can care about the Epstein files, though, which is nice.
This wouldn't it be amazing if Pan Bondy called the top of the market.
It's too much to hope for.
I understand it's too much to hope for.
But if it turns out that she was calling the top.
Fine, baby.
Top of market.
Oh, I see.
Oh, leave it there.
That's JBL.
I'll be back tomorrow.
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