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It is March 23rd, 2026, and just 48 hours
after threatening to drastically escalate the war
and Iran with attacks on the country's power plants.
President Trump is now claiming that those threats
were made while negotiations were ongoing.
That there have been productive talks
that we could even see a deal to end this war
within the next five days,
which would coincide with his latest deadline.
Iran says those talks never actually happened
and that it's Trump once again backing down
as he desperately tries to keep the stock market
from falling too much while trying to keep oil prices
from rising too high.
But what does Trump's rhetoric tell us
about the current state of this war?
As the U.S. loses, yet another F-15 fighter jet,
as they run low on interceptor missiles,
as Iranian ballistic missiles rain down on key cities
in Israel.
And if the U.S. is seeking talks,
if Trump is desperately seeking an exit ramp
from this war, at least for now,
what is Iran going to agree to?
What are their terms when it comes
to a potential end to the current conflict?
And how can they ensure that this is not just a temporary pause
and that the U.S. doesn't turn around and attack again?
Well, we got into all of that and more
with a special guest earlier.
So let's take a listen to that conversation now.
Joining me now to discuss
is veteran war correspondent Elijah Manier.
Elijah, thanks so much for taking the time to join me.
Thank you for having me.
It's always good to have you on the show.
Now, I wanna get your take on the latest here
as I know that we are now on day 24
of the U.S. and Israel's illegal war of aggression against Iran.
And President Trump is now postponing his own deadline
for planned military strikes on Iranian power plants
for another five days.
Claiming that Washington and Tehran had productive talks
over the weekend and we could soon see an end to this war.
The only problem with that is that Iran's foreign ministry
says that those talks never happen.
And instead of agreeing to negotiations,
Iran has threatened Trump right back,
noting that they would retaliate accordingly
and would completely close the straight-of-form moves.
So how do you view the current state of tensions?
And do you think that Trump's statements are evidence
that he got a bit of a wake-up call?
Is this about him trying to calm down the stock market
and the oil prices or is there more to it?
Indeed, before the opening of the market,
he made his statement and suddenly the market calmed down.
But when the Iranian said, well, actually, no,
it didn't happen, then the market went up again.
And after that, the Iranians pulled out any information
from Tasnim and the Iranian newspaper and agency
who said it didn't happen.
Therefore, they keep quiet about it.
But the animality is somewhere else.
Forty-eight hours ago, Donald Trump said
that he gave the North to make them to the Iranians,
that he's going to bomb all the energy and infrastructure
in Iran.
And today, he's telling us that 48 hours ago,
he held negotiation with Iran and they
have come up with 15 points in the last 48 hours.
But that is not unusual for Donald Trump
to say different things in one sentence, that is normal.
However, we understand now that the Americans are doubling down
on bombing Iran energy and infrastructure
because the Iranians proved honest and trustworthy
when they said we are going to retaliate against the nuclear
side energy, oil of any country that's going to bomb us,
we're going to bomb any country that offers a platform
for the Americans and the Israeli to use their country
to attack us, we're going to attack them.
So if I had done it, so when the Iranians threatened
to do the same to turn the complete Middle East
into an energy blackout, this is where I think
Donald Trump understood actually bluffing
with Iranians at this point is not
going to be productive because the Iranian,
and this is the failure of Trump and his administration
to understand, that Iran is actually fighting
an existential war.
There is no room for bluffing.
And any damage that is inflicted on Iran,
it is severe with one different that the Iranians can absorb it,
but not the Gulf countries.
And Iran is paying the price of spoiling the relationship
with the Gulf countries because according
to the United Nations Article 33-14,
they are offering the platform for the Americans
and the Israeli to attack them.
Therefore, it is the legal right of Iran
to retaliate against these countries.
And it doesn't say only the military bases in the country,
it says against the country because they
are offering to a second country to attack
a third country member of the United Nations.
So I think this push Trump to take into consideration actually
another option, but he did not recall back the Marines
that he sent around 5,000 men.
He did not recall back all the preparation
for invasion or occupation of an island,
or more than an island, or the A10 and the Apache,
that is attacking the coast of Iran.
And all the other measures are still in place.
However, I wonder what is going to attack
because all the military objectives have been exhausted
by the Americans and the Israelis.
And the Israelis are bombing civilian areas,
civilian infrastructure, police, customs, schools, banks, hospitals.
They really destroying the infrastructure of the state,
but not the ruling system, but the state itself.
So all the wealth of the Iranians is what the Israelis
are destroying because they really want the Iranian
to retaliate against the Gulf countries.
You are unprotected, the interception missile system
is very poor.
The Americans put everything in Israel.
And the Israeli interception system is good enough.
If we accept what the Israelis are saying, 90%,
which is not the case of the Gulf countries,
therefore, in the Israeli mind, they
have reached some of the objectives.
Make sure that the Arabs will hate the Iranians
for a very long time.
Turn the Arabs against Iran and make sure
that they come closer to the Israelis.
And we've seen the effect on the United Arab Emirates
who's leader defined today Iran as a terrorist state.
Yeah, the fact that you come out and say that I know you made
a post about this on X saying, well, they
didn't call Israel a terrorist state
when they're carrying out an all-out genocide against the Palestinians.
And you look at the situation that the region is in.
And I thought it was really interesting
because Trump really has this focus on we
have to open the straight-up hormones.
As if you do that, and it solves all of the problems
that we have here.
Well, Iran has noted that it is open,
but not for countries that are enemies of Iran.
But beyond that, we also have the fact
that all of this energy infrastructure
has been severely impacted by this war in just three weeks.
You've got the financial times noting
that Qatar's export of liquefied natural gas,
which is around one-fifth of the world's supply
will come to a halt in the next 10 days.
You also have the economist describing the situation
by saying even the best-case scenario for energy markets
is disastrous, noting that if the war ended tomorrow,
it would still be weeks, if not months,
before oil production was able to ramp back up in the Gulf
before repairs are completed at the South Park's gas field
or Qatar is able to start exporting LNG again.
So what does this tell us about the position
that the entire region is in?
When Trump keeps trying to downplay the situation
and act like it's just about the straight-up hormones,
but the damage that has been done
is putting us in a situation that is going to take years
to repair.
Well, you've raised an excellent point.
I'm going to start with the easiest one.
And yes, you're right.
For example, Qatar said an installation that costs 26 billions,
we have damage of 20 billions.
And the end of the war can be very near or can be far,
but at the end of the war, because the war is going to stop,
it doesn't mean repairing all the damages
that this war has caused.
And that is going to leave a mark for a very long time
in the Middle East on all countries involved.
Now, what is interesting in what you're mentioning
is suddenly the entire war is about the straight-up hormones.
It's no longer changing the regime.
It's no longer participating in the selection
of the Granatullah, it's what Trump said.
It's no longer allowing people to turn against the ruling
system in Iran.
It's no longer controlling the oil of Iran
and the wealth of Iran is no longer destroying
the nuclear and missile program.
It's about the straight-up hormones.
And the straight-up hormones, as you said, is no closed.
The problem with the straight-up hormone,
it is closed for the Americans and the Israelis
because they have started an unlawful war.
However, the insurance companies don't want to allow
tankers to go through the straight-up hormones
because the risk is too high.
And this is why the market is going a little bit crazy.
Now, today, it has settled down a little bit,
but the market is on the verge of collapse
because everybody knows that Iran can still use
the bubble mandate and the retie.
The Saudis and some of the Gulf countries
are still capable of selling some of their oil
to Riyumba on the retie.
If that closes, the world's going to tremble
and we know everything is about economy.
So for Donald Trump to say the straight-up hormones,
it's because he's looking for a way out.
If he solved the problem of the state of hormones
that is actually not a problem because the moment
him and the Israelis stop bombing Iran,
the problem of the state of hormones will be solved.
However, not the war will not end
because Iran doesn't want a ceasefire.
As Donald Trump said today, and he understood the lesson,
he said there's going to be a lasting ceasefire
for a very long time.
So actually, he's adopting the Iranian demand
and one of the first conditions that a ceasefire
cannot be accepted.
But the end of the war with guarantee
that this war is not going to pick up again.
And we have seen how Iran, in six to eight months,
managed to refill itself with so many missiles
and conducting a war of attrition
that Iran thought it might last for many years.
This is why there is an economy in the missile
but not stopping of sending precision missiles.
Now, it's going to be very complicated
because Donald Trump said he's going to accept anything
that he would say and he will impose it
among Benjamin Netanyahu.
And Benjamin Netanyahu said we do not accept a bad deal
which means he will accept a deal made by Donald Trump.
However, the Iranists will not stop the war
without including the entire Middle East
and that includes Lebanon and Iraq.
So we still know that closed from the end of this war
because there are still main elements that are not solved.
And we know that the Israeli Prime Minister,
main campaign was about him becoming a superpower
in the region and achieving the objective
but so far he achieved zero objectives.
He did not destroy Hamas, Hamas still alive
in control of the part of Gaza
that is not under the Israelis.
Hezbollah still active on the contrary
is launching more missiles than Iran on the Israelis
is stopping more than four divisions in the South of Lebanon
that are trying to occupy a very small tiny area
and we talk about four divisions
talking about 40 to 50,000 men equipped
with all the drones, the missiles, the artillery
and the Air Force.
So all of that require a lot of negotiation
but again, negotiating with home
with Steve Whitkov and Jared Kushner,
they are incompetent, they are a state dealer.
They know nothing about the technicality
of the nuclear program.
This is why the British were there in Oman
during the last negotiation
and the British said, well, there is a breakthrough
as the Oman for a minister who acted in between
and go between the Iranians and the Americans
and they all said Iran offered something
that never happened before, not even in JCPOA in 2015
but Jared Kushner and Steve Whitkov
who do not take any notes, who understand nothing
about the technicality of the nuclear program.
I heard him, he doesn't even know how to pronounce
the enrichment uranium and what are the advance IR1234560,
he doesn't know anything about them.
Well, it is all about them
and it's all about the quantity of uranium and rich
and the percentage and how Iran can have a small perception.
They come and they want to know, yes or no.
It doesn't work in negotiation either, yes or no
and it led them to a war
because they went back to Trump and they said,
Iran is not honest because Iran didn't say, yes,
I agree, I submit to you and everything you're saying.
They are very limited in their negotiation.
So again, this is not the end of the war.
At the beginning of the negotiation
but we're still negotiating under fire.
And I think that that's definitely good to keep in mind
especially as you have Trump in this position
where he's claiming, oh, it can be wrapped up
by the end of this week or, oh, you know,
he claims that he's back to Whitkov
and Kushner negotiating exactly as you said,
Iran's not going to accept that.
They don't want to have to deal with these two idiots
that just got us into this war to begin with,
let alone negotiations with the party
that they know that they can't trust.
And I know one of the things about the last three weeks
that has been exposed to the world
is just how bad the US military is
at fighting an actual war
because according to Central Command,
they are more accident prone than ever before.
I mean, the video going around
of the F-15 fighter jet that was shot down over Kuwait.
They're insisting, no, no, it was just a malfunction
and they have similar excuses
whether it be for the radar systems damage,
the MQ-9 Reaper drones taken down the refueling tankers,
the F-35 that just happened to get shot down
out of the air even though it's supposed to be
this grand stealth fighter jet.
I mean, we're talking about billions of dollars
and damage that the US has sustained in a matter of weeks
and that's not even taking into account
the years of ammunition that they have used in this war.
So when it comes down to the position that the US is in
how much longer not only can it continue in this war
but can Israel and all of these Gulf monarchies
compared to what Iran has prepared for
and as you were noting this prolonged existential war
that they are ready to fight,
how do you view the position that the US and Israel are in here
and really how desperately they actually do need talks
to try to get some sort of a pause on this war
before it gets even worse than it already is.
Good point.
Now there is a reality here.
The war that these Americans conducted against Afghanistan
at the time of the Mullah Omar,
he decided to leave Kabul
and this is how the Americans managed to occupy the capital
but did not submit Afghanistan because after 20 years
they gave back the power to the same Taliban
they started to fight against.
The war in Libya, I covered the war in Libya
and I was there and I met even with the son of Gaddafi
and all the responsible and I were convinced
that the war is going to end at the end of August
and all that was a theater
and they never understood that was a real war
to top in Gaddafi and to create a havoc in Libya.
So the Libya did not fight against the Americans
and against NATO.
They thought this is going to be over soon
and before that the Libyan allowed the Spaniard,
the French and all the Western countries
to come and inspect their missiles,
their nuclear program they gave up on it immediately
because they want to give security
and assurances to the West.
So they fought a country that was not willing to fight.
In Iraq Saddam Hussein was completely crippled
in his economy and the will of the army to fight back.
So they went to Iraq and it was easy to control the country
when to appoint that Saddam was falling from the inside.
They did not need to send troops
and this is another war that I covered
on the ground for nine years since 2003.
So they are now facing a country that is much less powerful
than the American that is stronger.
They have the strongest military in the world
and these really they have the strongest military in the Middle East
but they are facing a country willing to fight back
with the strong ideology and a battle of survival
willing to accept hits and many hits
because if the Americans have conducted
15,000 attacks and the Israelis 8,000 you can be sure
they've dropped many tons of explosive on Iran
but you see people going in the street,
Iran is 1,648,000 square kilometers.
You don't see really this damage
as I went to the suburb of Beirut
and before that I'm told the total of building damage
are 400 and that was big number
but there are 25,000 buildings in the suburb of Beirut.
So you really need to look for these buildings
to look where they are and to understand
when actually there was a war there.
So if a side that is ready to fight back,
they're not going to win
and this is why Americans when they accept to talk
and they've been advertising that we are willing to talk
and the Iranians are saying we don't want to talk,
we don't want to talk to whom
because you are part of the problem, not the solution.
So that means Benjamin Netanyahu
because we know a golden rule,
America always asks for a ceasefire
when Israel is coming to an edge
and coming to a term of the war.
Now we have seen how the interception of missiles
has been reduced and they asked for $680 million bomb
from the Americans but what about manufacturing
enough interception missiles?
What about Iran managing to do like it hit the Mona
and are in the last two days
in one missile 175 casualties in Israel.
So all that is building up and eating up
what Benjamin Netanyahu can claim as a victory
because first of all Israel has bombed all of the objectives
that it had in its bank of objectives.
Secondly, they crippled the Iranian economy
and if there are sanctions on Iran after the war,
Iran will not find it that easy to reconstruct everything.
Third, they hit many of the missile program
and the missiles warehouse it, no.
All obviously because Iran is fighting back
and is still fighting at least between 10 to 15
missiles and drone per day.
Therefore, there is a lot of stock
and Iran is launching missiles from the middle,
longer range missiles rather from the edge.
They close the Iraq to reach Israel faster
and from a shorter distance.
So when there is a ceasefire, look for Israel.
It's not Sheikh Sheikh Lafam, it here, look for Israel
and Israel once the end of the war
and Donald Trump will never go and stop the war
without Benjamin Netanyahu asking him.
But Netanyahu is not going to say it.
Netanyahu cannot say I aren't for a ceasefire
but the ceasefire now has, as I said,
many problems is Israel is going to stop the war on Lebanon
or not, Iran is not going to stop
if Israel will continue the war on Lebanon.
The war in the Middle East has to stop.
That's a request of the Iranians
formulated by Abbas, Iraq, the foreign minister
and I don't think Iran is going to change that.
That's also a really important point.
And I'm glad that you bring that up
because the last thing I wanted to get into
was the state of Hezbollah and it's continued war,
not only on Israel, but you also have Hezbollah
in this position where they're having to fight back
against the US back to Lebanese government
that apparently doesn't understand that Hezbollah
is the only thing standing between them
and a fall on Israeli invasion.
So when it comes to the overall state
of the axis of resistance, I know that,
in the aftermath of the genocide
and the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
there were a lot of people that said
that the axis of resistance as a whole is done
and it's not going to be rebuilt.
How do you see the resistance right now,
especially when it comes to Hezbollah
and the role that they are not playing
and truly making sure that Israel never has a day of rest?
I'm glad you asked this question.
Since the last three weeks and we are in week four,
we did not hear Benjamin Gagnahu
bragging about killing Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah anymore.
Because he saw that eliminating a leader
did not actually change the strengths of Hezbollah.
And because Hezbollah waited for 15 months
giving the opportunity to the Lebanese government
to use diplomacy that the Lebanese government
claim is the only solution to deal with Israel
and failed, Hezbollah was extremely clever
in starting and engaging the war with Israel
while for Israel the main objective was Iran.
And we have seen the result
and why I'm saying clever is because the bulk
of the bombardment of the Israelis
is going toward Iran.
They know sending bomb that they know bombarding Lebanon
and they didn't in 2024.
They more concentrated on Iran.
So the calculus of the Hezbollah was excellent
and strategically was really the right time to walk
and get involved into this war
because Israel is going to come sooner or later.
And then link itself to Iran cease fire
but at the same time received less damage than Iran
and less damage than 2024.
So these Israelis were forced to fight on more than one front
and this is what happened.
Secondly, during the 2024 war
the killing of the first and the second level of leadership
created huge confusion with Hezbollah.
Inevitably because it's a secretive organization
the Hezbollah leadership, the new staff that came in
from the top to the lower rank
were not in contact with the leadership
to receive the proper decision to fight back.
Those who were fighting still were those responsible
for the geography in the south of Lebanon
that do not need orders to stop these Israelis
and engage with them.
But the decision to fire against Tel Aviv or Haifa
needs the top level in the echelon
and the top level was not in contact with everybody
else in the missile system and the missile unit
from the long range to the mid-range missile unit.
Therefore in the last 15 months
Hezbollah prepared for this war
with or without Iran and waited for the right moment
when Israel was really doing all the effort possible
and all the military resources to attack Iran and sneak in.
That was an excellent move.
Now what Hezbollah is doing is exactly what Hezbollah did
in 1980s and in 2000 and 2006
they are engaged with the Israelis.
Sometimes they have a static defense line.
Sometimes they have kinetic defense line
allow the Israeli to come in
and then they fight them back to inflict more damage
and more casualty.
That's the guerrilla warfare.
Now the government decided to consider Hezbollah as outlaw
just days before the beginning of the war
and for Hezbollah was a really tough decision
if they do not start war with Israel
that's going to start it anyway
then the Lebanese army will start chasing and arresting them.
And at the beginning I heard many people
who are anti-Hezbollah were saying Hezbollah is weak,
defeated, we need to take back the control of the government
and now they say something completely different.
Now they are saying where we were surprised
we didn't understand that Hezbollah was that strong.
We did not know that Hezbollah has such quantity of missiles
to fire back on Israel.
We did not know that Hezbollah had the will to confront
four divisions on the borders.
And the last 24 hours we heard the president
who gave the orders to the Lebanese army to withdraw,
who gave the orders and approved and pushed the government
to consider Hezbollah military branch as outlaw.
Yes, they said condemn these really attack
and said Israel is violating the Lebanese sovereignty.
He suddenly waking up because Lebanon is no longer
going to be before these three weeks,
like after the three weeks.
After the three weeks, Hezbollah has a lot to say
and the Lebanese government will have to listen,
change the laws and make sure to take into consideration
that is dealing with a force that the Lebanese army
cannot do what this force is doing, did not pull out
and took replaced the Lebanese army position
that the Lebanese army withdrew
because it is incapable of fighting Israel
but Hezbollah is capable of fighting Israel.
So who is the mad person who's going to order
the Lebanese army to fight a force
that is doing the job of the army
and can fight Israel when the Lebanese army can't?
This is why there's a new rule of engagement
that is going to be imposed on Lebanon after this war
and what Benjamin Netanyahu and not Senegal here
but he relieved Hezbollah when he ordered all the shia
to evacuate the south of Lebanon and the suburb and the Bicar
because this is when Hezbollah said,
okay, I was concerned about my people,
you asked them to leave, now I have nothing to lose.
Yeah, and they did Hezbollah tried,
they tried to work with the ceasefire,
Israel violated it just about every day.
And exactly as you said, Hezbollah didn't go back
to war with Israel immediately,
they waited until the time is right.
And now we are seeing as Israel is in a position
where it's having to deal with all of these attacks,
it's having to deal with a lack of interceptor missiles
and it is bringing this war to a very pivotal point.
I know that there is certainly a lot at stake here
all around and I really appreciate you taking the time
to join me today to break down all of the latest here,
Veteran War Correspondent Elijah Manier,
thank you so much for your time and insight.
It was a pleasure ratio, thank you for having me.
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