Business Rundown: Markets Surge As President Signals De-Escalation in Iran Conflict

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I'm Jackie D'Angeles, and this is the Fox Business rundown.

Monday, March 23rd, 2026.

A resolution could come soon and close the book on Operation Epic Fury.

But will this progress be enough to reign in surging oil prices?

I think what we really were working under was hopefully the straighter her moves

is starting to operate more normally by the end of March.

The end may be nearer for joint military operations in Iran.

President Trump touting very good and productive conversations with officials there.

The president also announced that he has instructed the Department of War

to postpone any and all military strikes on power plants and energy infrastructure in Iran for five days.

Iranian state television denies that negotiations are underway,

but stocks index futures swung sharply higher following the president's claim.

US crude oil also pulled back from nearly $100 per barrel.

Could we soon see a light at the end of the tunnel?

And when may we see an about face on budget breaking fuel costs?

I think it's a market that's starting to look at the end of this war.

I think you would see stocks up even higher and I think eventually oil is going to come lower

as we really start to understand the scope of the end of this conflict.

Josh Schaefer is a barren's newsletter editor.

But if we used for a couple hours, yes, we're starting to see the end of the war.

But again, I think the key here, the difference this time around and we've been talking a lot about this,

is President Trump isn't the only key player here, right?

There's other people that I think the market is maybe waiting to hear from,

maybe you're waiting to hear from Netanyahu, maybe you're waiting to hear from the Iranians

get a little bit more information there on exactly what does soon mean on this five day period

that we're operating on.

When does the street fully open back up, right?

Remember that sort of the key thing we've been talking about here is when you're actually

going to have normal business flow through the straight of hormones.

I don't think we have those answers yet.

So I think it's still a little bit wait and see in our advice right now to investors

just to maybe be a little bit cautious.

Yeah, you can start taking a little bit more risk back on, be position for it.

But it's not, this is definitely over.

We feel very confident that there's going to be no more downside risk.

Right. So what I'm hearing for you and I also agree is that there's no guarantee here.

Right.

This is the potential for a five day end, but we're not sure and there could be more volatility.

There definitely could be more volatility.

And I think just when you think about the market right now and how oil prices have been moving,

how stocks have been moving, it's become very volatile to a point that starts to get concerning to us.

So I was talking to our senior technical analyst Doug Bush and he was pointing out,

I mean, you had the S&P 500 closed below a 200 day moving average on Friday.

You're starting to get, it's getting a little messy under the surface from a single stock basis.

So it's not like you can just get headlines and the market just instantly goes back up and we're back to where we were a month ago

because remember too, there's a lot of fallout here economically, right?

You're still going to get some bad inflation data over the next couple months.

That's not going to be great from a Fed perspective, from an overall narrative perspective in terms of

can the Fed cut rates in the next couple months?

A couple months ago, we thought so, right?

Now that's maybe in question.

So does that come back into the mix where you're sort of catalyst for the market outside of just the war ending?

I think it's a harder question.

Okay, I was listening to our great friend Charles Payne.

He was on earlier this morning kind of setting up what we could expect for the day.

And he was talking about this market and how it was poised for great growth.

And the fundamentals were set for the market to rally and that investors just want to see that resume.

Assuming that this is a temporary blip, volatility aside, do you still see the handwriting on the wall for that?

I do. I think what we really were working under was hopefully the straighter her moves is starting to operate more normally by the end of March.

That's kind of been the going timeline we've been writing and talking a lot about at Barrens.

And I think if that happens, which is still in place.

And that would be the end of this week, this is week four.

Right.

So the original forecast was four to five weeks.

Right.

So it seems like we have a five day period now where we're going to be in a little bit of wait and see, right?

But that still gives you another week to start to figure this out a little bit more and start to open things back up.

Because to your point on the growth outlook for the rest of the year earnings estimates haven't really fallen at this point.

Right.

Corporate America is still telling you things are going to be good for the rest of this year.

That part of the story.

Oil and inflation are really the problems right now.

But you know, the president saying listen, oil is going to drop like a rock as soon as this is over.

Now we do know prices go up at the pump much faster than they tend to come down.

And the inflation could be sticky and that gives us a problem with the Fed.

Speaking of the Fed and the interest rate cuts, we're watching commodities and the metals have literally fallen out of bed.

Yeah.

Presumably on this idea that the rate cut is not coming that was anticipated.

Your thoughts on that?

Yeah.

I think that's probably part of the move that you've seen in gold.

I also think gold became a little bit of a positioning story to some extent and metals in general, right?

Silver was up over 50.

I think at one point it was up 100% at the start of the year, right?

It was just totally taking off.

And so when you think about where as an investor, if I want to stay in the market, where am I going to allocate my money?

Gold didn't become that answer this time around for a safe haven trade because I think a lot of people,

if you're only trying to have one percent of your portfolio in gold,

well over the last year it became two or three percent, right?

And how much gold do you really want to own?

I think became a hard question for investors at this point.

So I do think at some point you might see a move back into gold.

Now that we're down from about 5,500 to closer to tuck 4,500 at one point per ounce or per bar gold,

I think you could see movement back into it.

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What do you think about Big Tech, Mag 7, the cell-off and credit?

How much of that is related to the volatility that we're seeing?

How much of it is separate and could potentially continue assuming the war?

I think it was a separate story.

Because that unwinding really started to happen before we even talked about the conflict.

But I mean, we've been bullish on some of those names at Barons.

We picked Microsoft in the last couple of weeks.

We recently just recommended buying shares of Oracle.

I think when you look at the valuations of some of these companies,

Microsoft compared the S&P 500 as its cheapest level in a decade.

Right.

The stocks down 30% from a 52-week high.

So starting to nibble at those names again,

we're talking about sentiment broadly here.

What do you really get risk on sentiment?

Is Microsoft going to take back up and make a new all-time high?

Probably not.

But it's a good company, right?

They still have very strong fundamentals.

And we don't think software is going to fully eliminate the concept of Microsoft.

So looking for names like that sort of best in breed within Tech, I think is good opportunity.

I love that.

And what about the credit side of this?

Are these fears overblown?

I've talked to some of these companies that say that they are overblown

and that everything is actually in good shape.

So AI is still early on and they're not expecting these defaults.

Excuse me, that the market is forecasting.

I think at this point, the credit story to me is,

it's probably good that we're all talking about it, right?

So you're saying you're talking to your investors about it.

Investors are, we're talking to your investors about it.

The big banks continue to come out and talk about it, right?

Even companies that are more specifically in private equity are talking about it.

So I think it being a known, known makes me a little bit less worried about it at this point.

But of course, a developing situation in the interesting side

when we talk about specifically private credit, there just isn't a lot of visibility into there.

So I do think there is still risk for some sort of market tape bomb type event

where because we don't really know what's going on, right?

And then all of a sudden, oh, all these people want to redeem.

The company was not positioned for that amount of redeeming.

I could still be an issue down the line, but it's not at the top of my list of consumers.

But it's the market takes off, again, assuming that the war ends quickly.

And the market takes off back on the fundamentals that Trump sent into place.

Tax refunds are coming back.

People are going to feel flush with cash.

Like you said, the earnings estimates are still strong.

As his policies start to kick in and that growth starts to kick in,

will people feel that need to want to redeem?

Or they'll get back into this and say, okay, the growth's here.

AI is part of that story.

Let's go.

I think you're right there.

People probably wouldn't feel the need to redeem, right?

So as long as you don't have the overall equity market and a bond market sell-off, right?

That's what's adding to all of these pressures of then, oh boy,

and I allocated to private credit that I'm supposed to be locked in you for five years.

I want some of that back now.

And so I think if everything calms down a little bit,

then you probably don't see the redemption.

I'm glad that you brought up the bond market because I always like to sort of weave that in

and take a look at where we are.

You'll done the 10-year have moved higher, but not as high as I thought they would

under these circumstances.

Yes, I think you were on Monday morning somewhere a little over 4.3%

and it had come down from 4.4%, which it hit on Friday.

That was starting to worry me on Friday.

When you see massive moves in rates,

that's usually the scariest thing from a market perspective to me.

And I think you just saw a lot of flushing, right?

I saw some technical analyst pointing out at 4.32%,

suddenly the 10-year just jumped to 4.4%.

That's more of a positioning story and where people have certain triggers on.

I think the 10-year, if you stay under 4.5,

you're probably in decent shape here and can hopefully continue to move lower from there.

So you're starting to see positive developments there.

But again, I think you still want the direction to be lower,

not in a rising or are we going over 4.5, starting to get worried moment.

Okay, so assumption is that everything goes on track with the wars.

We've been saying market starts to pick up as we hit the, you know,

sort of spring into the summer.

Also, we were talking about Jerome Powell leaving his post.

When we were talking about it last year, it seemed like it was so far away.

Now it's just around the corner.

What do you think we can expect at the Fed?

Do you think the changes will be dramatic right out of the gate?

I think it first of all depends if he is able to weave in May.

Like he plans to, right?

Well, he would leave his position, but he could keep a seat.

He could keep a seat.

And I think reading the tea leaves of what he said at his most recent press conference,

it seems like he might be interested in keeping that seat,

but I don't think a lot of people thought.

And so I would expect probably more volatility or least volatility in the narrative

and less certainty on what's going on with the Fed.

If you have a former Fed chair still on the board,

he still has some sway, right?

Sure, and it's got a vote.

It puts Kevin Worshan in a hard position, I think,

if he wants to come in and try and cut interest rates

when you have the person that's been running these meetings for a long time now,

sitting there and maybe not on the same side, but the other...

And he can still sort of whip his others into line.

Right, but I think it is you.

I don't think Powell has been as hawkish as some people think,

and I don't think that his bias is necessarily for rates to be higher.

Remember, as the chair, he speaks for everyone, right?

Right.

So he comes out and gives what the consensus was of how the entire meeting went

and what all the officials said.

So you might see a little bit of a different version of Jerome Powell too

if he were to stay on as an official when he just gets to speak for himself.

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Just to go back to the war, I'm sorry to skip around here,

but I'm having thoughts.

And as I have them, they come out.

Yeah.

So let's just say this ends,

but there is no regime change.

And you still have this force, although discombobulated.

It's a snake that had its head cut off.

But this regime is still somewhat in place, the IRGC.

Does the market take that as a win in your view?

Because it could still sprout tentacles of problems.

I would say probably not, because the risk there would be

that we're not all on the same page here, right?

If the regime is not replaced, and then something we've talked a lot about

on air over the last couple of weeks,

you want the missiles to stop flying.

Right.

So the IRGC is a bit of a badic attack, where it's, oh, that's not what we talked about on the phone.

What's happening? This isn't de-escalating.

And I think if you don't get full regime change, your risk of that happening is still there.

And that's really what's been moving oil prices on net over the last week,

or last couple of weeks, more so than just headlines.

It's actual what's happening on the ground.

And I think the risk to that still being more of a,

we don't really know what's happening.

If you don't have the regime change, it's probably there.

But last thing, I personally think that the president wants to see a regime change.

I want the United States to facilitate it.

He wants the people to do it.

But that's what would be the end for him too.

So there's part of me that looks at all of this negotiation that's happening right now,

as simply that negotiation, head faking, until he gets the rest of his strategy in place.

That's my personal opinion.

It's completely speculative, but that's my thought.

I think it is all negotiating, right?

Because it's a lot of talking.

And when did the talking really start to pick up on after a Friday,

where the stock market just closed low for, lower for four straight weeks, right?

It felt like at the end of the week, things finally started to feel like they were getting bad.

And you had the bomb market take up.

We know how the administration is active to,

to take up some treasure yields, right?

So I think it felt like all of the signs were there too.

We need to start at least showing that we're making progress.

But again, I don't think showing that you're making progress gets the sentiment in the stock market all the way back.

You need to see the progress.

We need the straight open.

You need the war to fully stop.

And then probably that regime changes.

You pointed out as well, Jackie, because then we'll feel like we're confident that the U.S. doesn't even interest in going right back there.

All right, we'll leave it there.

Josh Schaeffer is a barren's newsletter editor.

It's great to have you.

Thank you.