Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on the economic forecasts around GDP and economic growth

SB's latest update inflation pegs at 4% mid-year, growth down 1.6 points from 2.9 to 1.3,

so basically we go for the year and growth from nearly 3 to a little over 1, Cameron

Bagry, independent economists with us.

Is that a conservative number from ASB or about where you would think it should be at?

It's probably around your central scenario at the moment, but look, there's a lot of

variance around that central scenario, if anybody can give me a fair idea or any

economist in regard to how long news is going to be closed or how almost, yeah, it's

going to last for, we'll start to put some firm numbers at the moment, but then all

on a set of moments, we'll listen to Dixie in regard to how long this thing is going

to take place.

Call me Battle Harden, but at least we're not talking about recession.

Well, I guess, yeah, it depends on your definition of recession, so if you look at what's

called GDP, your capital line, it's still down 3.4%, let's speak around three years

ago.

Now, so in the terms of level of GDP, we're still climbing up an economic hold, and obviously

ASB's forecast, which I agree with, the economy's going to move backwards in the June quarter.

That might technically not technically buy them a recession, because for the end of

recession, you need to get back up to two quarters in a row, but you've got the level

of GDP still 3.4% down from your peak, it's still going to feel like it's pretty tough

out there.

Brent Crude Price futures before I came on either this morning about 112 bucks a barrel.

If we get a headline that says boots on the ground, what happens to that price?

I'm sorry, headline, either the weekend, which is one of the reasons we've seen all

prices move back up, is it your ground evasion, you've all built up with fruits in the middle

of the situation, and the commentary around that was that if you go into a ground evasion,

while you're talking months, you're not talking weeks in regards to how long this thing's

going to last.

So yeah, let's go on in regards to markets are thinking, if you look at the Ford price

for crude oil, the Ford price still works for down and sloping, I.E. and six months we're

expecting lower oil prices as opposed to higher oil prices, but it's anybody's guess now

in regards to what's going on.

Yeah, you love the hooties down in Yemen and our opening up, what looks like it could

be a second potential with your choke points, so the world's on edge, you know, I'm, firstly,

I'm a little bit surprised, well, markets, particularly equities have taken this.

Yeah, they've been pretty resilient.

Would you be rationing already?

I'd be at level two.

Cameron Bagry appreciates your time this morning, Cameron Bagry, independent economist.