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Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul - Preview & Prediction - 2026 US Open

About this episode

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul — full preview, head-to-head breakdown and prediction for their FOURTH ROUND clash at the 2026 US Open at Flushing Meadows, New York. History on the line for both men.


Carlos Alcaraz looks like he's finally through the rust. The defending champion — who arrived in New York having not played competitive singles since a wrist injury at the Barcelona Open in mid-April — dismantled Wu Yibing 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 on Arthur Ashe to extend his personal-best GRAND SLAM WIN STREAK TO 17 MATCHES. At 23, he is bidding to become the first man to successfully defend the US Open since Roger Federer's five straight from 2004 to 2008.


Tommy Paul is chasing history of his own. The No. 20 seed came through a brutal five-setter against Alexander Bublik 6-4, 3-6, 6-7(4), 6-1, 6-3 to match his career-best US Open run, and a win here would make him the ONLY ACTIVE AMERICAN MAN to reach the quarterfinals at all four Grand Slams — he already has Australian Open (2023, 2025), Roland-Garros (2025) and Wimbledon (2024). Only New York is missing.


The head-to-head is a problem for the American: Alcaraz leads 6-2 and has won their LAST FIVE MEETINGS. Paul also has significantly more mileage in his legs after nearly four hours against Bublik, while Alcaraz has spent barely any time on court in his last two rounds.


But this is Arthur Ashe on Labor Day weekend, with a home crowd behind Paul and a defending champion still not certain he's back to his best. Full tactical breakdown and my prediction below.


🎾 IN THIS VIDEO

- Whether Alcaraz is genuinely back to full level

- Why Paul's five-setter could decide this match

- The tactical pattern behind Alcaraz's five straight wins

- Prediction, scoreline, and the road to the semifinals


📊 MATCH INFO

Tournament: 2026 US Open (Grand Slam)

Round: Fourth Round / Round of 16 — Men's Singles

Players: Carlos Alcaraz (ESP, 2nd seed, defending champion) vs Tommy Paul (USA, 20th seed)

Head-to-head: Alcaraz leads 6-2 — and has won the last five

Surface: Outdoor Hard

Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Flushing Meadows, New York


💬 Can Tommy Paul do it? Predicted scoreline in the comments.

👍 Like if you want daily US Open previews and predictions

🔔 SUBSCRIBE and turn on notifications for full 2026 US Open coverage


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Copyright Disclaimer: Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Non-profit, educational or personal use tips the balance in favor of fair use and no copyright infringement is intended. No match footage is shown in these videos.


⚠️ Independent tennis analysis and commentary. Predictions are opinion only and not betting advice. Not affiliated with the USTA, the ATP or the US Open.


#Alcaraz #TommyPaul #USOpen

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul - Preview & Prediction - 2026 US Open

QualityShot Tennis Podcast

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Full transcript

QualityShot Tennis PodcastCarlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul - Preview & Prediction - 2026 US Open. Machine-transcribed; use the interactive transcript above to jump the player to any line.

Hey guys and welcome back to the channel we have Carlos Alcoraz versus Tommy Paul for the round of 16 matchup at the US Open. Very much looking forward to chatting about this one should be an all action packed affair. Before we do get into the detail of this video, if you do end up liking this video, do hit that like button, please read us out. And of course, do comment below your winner of this matchup or any thoughts you might have on this one as well. On top of that, if you do enjoy this content, do hit that subscribe button. If you are new, there is a whole host of US Open content coming your way. Okay, let's break this one down. So we've got Carlos Alcoraz who is the number two seed and he is of course the reigning champion here at the US Open. He had that long layoff and is now making his way back of the US Open. And it's been pretty solid from him I have to say. Only the one set dropped so far across three rounds, which is really impressive. For Tommy Paul, he's not a had it particularly easy. No straight set victories.

And I do wonder physically how he might fare in this one because this could end up being of course a very physical match with having to play off the back for a lot and having to run a lot against Alcoraz who's going to try and play of course on the front foot. There's going to be some cam out points. Points that are going to be extremely physical. So that's where it could get quite dicey for Tommy if his conditioning is in pop knot twist to be honest and to be fair to him it normally is. You don't normally see him complaining about fatigue or breaking down. I have to say his conditioning seems to be second to none and he is one of the fastest players on the tour but also I think one of the fittest on tour as well. So in terms of the head to head, the head said six two in favor of Carlos Alcoraz. And in fact, what's interesting is that on hardcore and outdoor hardcore specifically, it's actually only three two to Alcoraz. So the two matches that Tommy Paul won on hardcore. So Tommy won those ones. Well, both of those were in three sets in Masters 1,000, Tournament and they were back in 22 and 23.

So I don't think there's much we can retake from those but what I will say is that Alcoraz, even though the first couple of matches he won them in four sets against Safioulin and Furia respectively, against William being I thought he would. I think Paul has to have an incredible serving day and I think he needs to be ultra aggressive against Alcoraz. Get him defending, get him on the back foot. I think he needs to take more risk than he normally would. He needs to come forward to the net and yes, he might get passed. Yes, he might be struggling in some of the points defensively. I'm sorry on the front foot making a few more errors than he might normally, but I do think it's important that he is trying to be the aggressor. If he lets Alcoraz dictate, I don't think he has any chance of winning. In terms of prediction, I think it's a pretty easy one to cope because I personally think Alcoraz and Paul that they have similarities in their games, but I think, essentially, what Alcoraz does, is everything that Tom and Paul does, but a little bit better. He's a little bit quicker, he's a little bit better defensively. He's got a little bit better serve, he's got a little bit of better return, the forehand,

I think the forehand, there's actually more of a disparity. There I think Tommy has got a solid forehand. Alcoraz's forehand can fluctuate, but if we talk about top level or forehand, I think Tommy's is here, Alcoraz is all the way up here. Backhand though, they're pretty solid, both of them as well. Alcoraz has more, I think, winner hitting ability. Maybe, but Tommy pulls two handers, flat is accurate, it's penetrating. And I think Abanette, Tommy's really good. I think maybe, only just below Alcoraz's ability there, but it's still cool to really say that there's an aspect of their tennis games where Paul actually edges Alcoraz. I think that's the case at all. So I think Alcoraz, for me, I think maybe a foreset, Tommy tends to be able to take a set of Alcoraz quite often. And I think that he will make it physical for Carlos, and it will be difficult for both players at times, but I think Carlos just edges this one with his quality. Is he playing at 100% no, but I don't think he necessarily needs to. So I think he's going to have the upper hand in this one. Let me know in the comments what you think and why. Thanks very much guys, stay safe from what we'll still like to do.

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