Cavs-Raptors Prediction: PHYSICAL series, Harden & Mitchell eventually beat Ingram & Barnes

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The volume.

All right, welcome to Hoops tonight here at the volume.

Happy Friday, everybody.

Hope all of you guys are having an incredible end to your week.

We've got another series preview today.

This time we're hitting the calves and the raptors.

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All right, let's talk some basketball.

So the season series between the calves and the raptors.

These are the numbers for whatever they're worth.

The raptors are three and oh, the season.

And they've absolutely dominated.

They have a plus 11.4 net rating.

They've dominated Cleveland on the glass.

They've dominated in transition.

It hasn't been pretty.

But I take little to nothing from this data.

Just because all three of these games took place

during the first six weeks of the season.

The calves were utterly decimated by injuries.

There was no Darius Garland.

Obviously no James Harden,

because that was before the trade.

Jared Allen only played in one game.

Max Truce obviously was out of the line up at that point.

Here's how banged up.

The calves were.

If you look up the highest total minutes played for the calves

in games against the raptors this season.

Lonzo Ball and DeAndre Hunter are fourth and fifth on that list.

So they just really aren't the same team as they were.

Again, the last time they played was in late November.

So we're basically flying blind.

As we look at this particular series.

If you look around like.

We have a really good example from the Hawks mix.

Match up from a couple weeks ago.

That's like a really good example.

The Timberwolves in the nuggets have been kind of the same core for a while.

And I've been beaten the hell out of each other for years.

Kind of a better feel.

But even then their regular season games.

They've had a lot of guys out of the lineup.

Rockets Lakers.

Obviously you have the the Luca D'Ansic and Austin Reeves injury.

But there were some good games to look at that.

At least gave you a feel for what the series would have looked like.

If both teams were healthy.

Could not be further.

I think it's going to be a good example.

I think it's going to be a good example.

I think it's going to be a good example.

I think it's going to be a good example.

I think it's going to be a good example.

I think it's going to be a good example.

It's going to be a very good example.

To provide you a feel for what the series would have looked like if both teams were healthy.

It could not be further from the port for this particular match-up.

It's a lot of flying behind.

We'll do our best to guess how these teams will guard each other and how they'll

look to score.

But this is.

This is one of the tougher ones based on what our regular season evidence is.

The series prices.

Again all of our lines are provided by our partner hard rock bet.

Cleveland is a massive.

Faber right now, there I mean 600 onlar is a plus 4, 2500.

25 underdog. Those are the lines at the time of this recording. I think that line makes

a lot of sense to me. Toronto has been one of the worst teams in the league this season

against good teams. According to cleaning the glass against teams that are in the top

10 in point differential, the Raptors were just seven in 22 this year. That's the ninth

worst record in the entire NBA. That's tied with the Dallas Mavericks. That's behind teams

like Chicago, Milwaukee and Golden State. And they didn't do themselves any favors in

this conversation then the season as they racked up toward like right now, final month,

double digit losses. Just in the final two weeks, actually, just double digit losses

to the mix, to the Celtics and in the pistons where they just looked overmatched. Cleveland

even with all their injuries had the seventh best win percentage against teams in the top

10 in point differential at 11 and 13. So there's a clear sign that like just forget about

anything involving this individual matchup. Cleveland just looks like a much better team

based on the data we got from this year. Even then Toronto had injuries as well, but

Cleveland was especially decimated and they just accomplished more over the course of

this season. So let's start with Cleveland on offense. And I want to start actually with

the way that the Raptors can flip this dynamic. So again, massive underdog, right? How does

Toronto change that dynamic? Flip the script on their struggles in the regular season against

good teams and find a way to compete in the series. Toronto's issues in big games have

actually come down to the offense event of the four. Their defense has translated pretty

well overall. They're big. They're switchy. They apply physical ball pressure. They rotate

really well. Scotty Barnes has been one of the best three or four defensive players that

have watched in this entire season overall. To me, it's the physicality that I want to

harp on to start here. Because if there's any shot for the Raptors to flip the script on

the lack of optimism surrounding them before the series, it's that there is some legitimacy

to the fact that Cleveland, both before and after the trade and in previous seasons, has

shown some vulnerability to teams that can physically dominate them. If you can pressure

their guards, if you can shove around their bicks, you can play them into lower quality

threes, you can turn them over and get out and transition and you can get active on the

offensive glass. Donovan Mitchell looked a little banged up towards the tail end of the

season. James Hardin is an older ball handler compared to some of the other guys are going

to have major responsibility this season. We'll see. I have no idea whether or not Emmanuel

quickly is going to be ready to go. He's had this hamstring thing that's been an issue.

That's something I want to kind of bring up when we talk about offense because that's

something I'm concerned about. But let's say it's Jacobi Walter and RJ Barrett. If

those two guys can just get up into Mitchell and Hardin and just make them physically uncomfortable

with ball pressure, if Scotty Barnes can just like kick Evan Mobley's ass just because

he's bigger and stronger than him. If Jacoperto can shove around Jared Allen on the offensive

glass, like if they can do some of those things, that can go a long way towards giving Toronto

a puncher's chance in the series. Today's show is brought to you by presenting sponsor

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But I don't really see that happening outside of a game or two.

Donovan Mitchell has a habit of kind of, we talked about this with Carter Rodriguez when he

came on to talk have a couple of weeks ago. Donovan Mitchell has a habit of looking a little if he

post all-star break and then just being fine when he gets to the post season.

And he's been one of the most reliable playoff scoring guards in the NBA over the last few years.

I think he'll be fine.

James Hardin is a big strong ballhandler. He tends to do pretty well against ball pressure,

especially from players that are smaller than him. I talked about this right after the trade.

It's crazy as it sounds. I actually think James Hardin is a more reliable playoff player

than a banged up, Darius Garland by a pretty decent margin.

Evan Mobley has shot the ball well and played pretty well in this match up this season.

And Jared Allen gives Hardin and Mitchell their play finisher when they're looking to attack

Yaka Perl in drop coverage. The Cavs also when they're healthy have some of the most deadly

spot-up shooters in the league. They have multiple guys that like you straight up cannot leave

open. Max Trues, Sam Merrill, obviously Jalen Tyson as well. There are guys that you

straight up cannot leave open. I know they haven't been as good as I thought they would be after

the Hardin trade. But I still think they're a really well-built roster and there are numbers that

you can dig into. They only played Hardin, Mitchell, Jared Allen and Evan Mobley, that quartet

for about 200 possessions this year. It's about two games worth, right around 100 minutes, right?

There are plus 24 points per 100 possessions. So a lot of this stuff with Cleveland,

I think you can still be concerned about some of these issues. But overall when they're actually

healthy, we haven't seen it very much, but they've been very dominant. A lot of this could still

come to fruition in a postseason run. And the real problem I have for the Raptors and their

chances in the series comes down to their ability to score consistently. Toronto's a bottom 10-3

point shooting team. And specifically the Scotty Barnes Yaka Perl front court that will allow

the Cavs to keep Mobley and Allen stacked in any sort of pick and roll coverage. That means

if you want to bring Jared Allen to the level, Evan Mobley can be under the rim.

If you want to bring Evan Mobley to the level, Jared Allen can be underneath the rim. They can

stack and pick and roll coverage, which is always when Cleveland's been at their best defensively

because the Raptors don't really have the ability to space out to the corners.

Not unless they have Sandra Mamma-Calisfeely on the floor, which opens up some defensive issues

for them. I think for the most part, the Cavs are going to be able to keep Mobley and Allen

stacked and pick and roll. What I mean by that is just up at the level with strong low man help.

And I think that's going to give them a really high floor defensively in the series. All those

Scotty Barnes and Brandon Ingram Isos and Post-Ups, you're going to have one of those guys just

sitting right behind them at the rim. And this is probably the biggest concern I have. One of my

favorite parts of the Raptors offense this season has been the ability of a manual quickly in Jamal

Shed to start the engine of the Raptors offense. The Raptors offense actually, they move the ball

really well. They have a lot of high level playmaking talent. They don't have shooting talent,

but they playmaking talent. So they can get some really high quality looks when they break the defense

now. But one of their ways to do that is the dribble penetration in a manual quickly is dealing with

the hamstring issue. And you know, we'll see if he's even available for game one, but let's say he

is like that's the kind of injury that could have a significant impact on his ability to make hard

driving moves towards the basket. I think in order for Toronto to win the series, there's going to

have to be physical domination on both ends of the four. They're going to have to, once again,

lots of ball pressure, lots of shove in heaven, mobility off of his spots, forcing turnovers that

sparked their transition attack, forcing bad threes. Again, Cleveland's three point shooting is

very contingent on the quality of shots that they get. When that slips, they can go cold,

that can spark the long rebounds that lead to those transition battles, physical and offense.

Like Scotty Barnes has to just straight up bully heaven, mobility. And if he's able to draw

Jared Allen over and help, it's going to have to be Jacoperto cleaning things up on the back.

And they're going to have to do some damage on the offensive class surgical mid range scoring

from Ingram. He's going to have a lot of help behind him at the rim. He's going to need to be able

to hit shots over the top. And they're going to need a ton of dribble penetration from their guards.

And it's, it's just a narrow path. It's a narrow path that over and over again this season,

the raptors have been unable to thread when they've played the upper level competition in this

league. And no, Cleveland, Cleveland is not a Boston Detroit, Boston Detroit level talent,

you know, in terms of when you're talking about the very, very best teams in the league,

the, the nicks as well. I lump in there when I'm talking about the upper level teams that

Toronto has struggled with over the tail end of the season. But Cleveland is pretty close to

that level. Like they're not far off of that like nicks Celtics level. And I put Cleveland kind

of on the same tiers Detroit right now in terms of what I view them as an overall playoff team.

So like I don't think this is the type of matchup that that Toronto is going to have a lot of

success with. They've struggled consistently with this. They're success against Cleveland early

in the season, stemmed mostly from injuries. So I think in in the half court in particular,

it's just a really good match up for Cleveland. So as long as Cleveland doesn't decompose

under Toronto physicality, physical ball pressure, physicality under the rim, physical post ups and

isos from guys like Scotty Barnes. As long as they hold up there, they should take care of business.

I'm picking the calves in six. All right guys, that's all I have for today. As always,

I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. We'll be back tomorrow

morning, Saturday morning with our one eight series previews. I will see you guys then.

The Toyota Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going, backed by Toyota's reputation for

legendary reliability. Step into a Tundra with the available iForce Max hybrid engine,

delivering impressive torque and serious towing power. We'll take a look at Tacoma with an

available power lift gate. So gear goes in fast and the adventure keeps moving. Toyota trucks

are built to last year after year, mile after mile. So drive on home today, visit Toyota.com to

find out more. Toyota, let's go places. Copenhagen spit free pouches are packed full of American

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The long haul trucker is stuck in gridlock. Performance working late at the field office.

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Phantom and stores today, not all varieties available in all geographies.

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Geico presents a 30 second podcast between your podcast. Today's story is shared by one of our

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switched to Geico, saving about $900 in the process and never to be betrayed again.

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