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Straight Outta Vegas AM — CFB Week 2 Picks & Predictions. Machine-transcribed; use the interactive transcript above to jump the player to any line.
MUSIC Offman is placed by Astor. D-Fans form. Swarm and tackle. Attack. We get out of welcome. We get out of tackle. We get out of hit him in hustle. It's real simple. You out of welcome. You out of tackle. You out of hit him. And you out of hustle. Let him know. We've known down tonight. Please no doubt tonight. No doubt. Welcome everybody to the week two edition of RJBos Dream Preview College Football Edition. We are back. We cast best fits. Both of us Colorado and the Colorado State Team Total for Dave here. So good week two. I know the highlight of everybody's week was the Michigan, the Michigan debacle there. You know, I didn't have any action on it, but I saw it live. It was it was insane.
But overall, I think it was a pretty good week for the podcast, especially with the best best starting off 2 and 0. So Dave, how you doing? How's life going for you? Yeah, I mean, it's gone great. I have the Angels team total tonight over three and a half. And they got five in the third inning. So perfect. You know, I can breathe on that. But that's not what everybody's here for. I mean, I think our takes last week were profitable overall. I looked back quickly and our best match one. So, you know, there's that. I mean, I feel good about where we are going forward. And, you know, as I always do say, whatever, I just don't want to overreact a week one with two for chance. Right? Yeah, for sure. This is definitely not for you. You know, we'll help. We'll help. We'll help. We've got some decent best bets and some solid information tonight. Yeah, that's that's the sure. I mean, everyone gets to know I never want to get to low. I mean, I think the natural reaction is to overreact. Just certain people, but, you know, that's not what we, that's not what we do here. I'm speaking for both of us because I know you feel the same way. So, yeah, so we'll get right into it. We got a, we got a nice slate. It's a good slate of games.
Both high level and under the radar games, we're trying to pick through a couple to get to. And David, if it's all right with you, we can start at the top of the car. I'm going to go in rotation order. You're so it's easier to follow for everybody listening or watching or whatever. Whatever, whatever, whatever you may be doing. So we'll start with three 19 320 Oklahoma at Michigan, the aforementioned Michigan, Oklahoma's land five and a half total, 43 and a half. You know, Michigan fell out of the, they had a whirlwind of a game, should have lost that game. They failed from 16 out of the top 25. So voters and, you know, people are kind of, you know, justifying that play on the field. Versus the, you know, polls and the reaction to, you know, the media people. We saw this game last year in Norman, Oklahoma won 24 13. Pretty much bottled them up. That was Bryce's, Bryce under was first start on the road. Tough way to go about it.
I think Oklahoma took a lot of money in that game from not mistaken. I was on that side early and it got there, but it looked hairy early, but the defense showed up. But yeah, I think the, both of these teams are pretty similar Dave. I mean, the story is going to be Oklahoma's offense versus Michigan's defense, because I think the other two units are clearly won at the top, which is Oklahoma's defense and won at the bottom, which is Michigan's offense. So I think those two in between are going to kind of settle the game. But, but, oh, you land five and a half, 43 and a half, Dave, what you like here? Yeah, I mean, and this is the first game we could overreact to, right? I mean, we all know Michigan couldn't what it should have lost. I don't have an opinion. But you know what, they shouldn't have left themselves in that position in the first place, right? I mean, for real. I mean, people say they got robbed. Central Michigan did, but not really. I mean, and, you know, Oklahoma had that sort of shut out layup over Utah, right? So let's, let's all bet on Oklahoma.
Well, I don't know about that. I mean, Michigan's only been a home doc 18 times in 23 years, right? No, they're 998-ATS, but, you know, I guess based on that trend, they'll lose outright and not cover. You know, Monday morning, I looked and bookmaker had gone to seven, circa come down to five and a half. So at this point, I think I take Michigan and the main reason with that, you know, plus seven. I mean, that's probably gone. I haven't looked in a couple of hours, but they'd be given Michigan 16% of the expected points before kickoff. That's never a bad position. I think I'd be inclined to look more at the total, too, since, I mean, early bettals are beyond that. I mean, early bettals are beyond Oklahoma with recency bias. I mean, I'd hope for a lower total, but, you know, it is what it is. 43.5, 44. So what do you do? I mean, what's different between these teams now and last year when the suitors won 24 to 13 in Oklahoma? Well, not really a lot. I think this game comes down to the Oklahoma defense, if you will. I mean, they can force Andy Wood to operate under stress. I think he's going to struggle again.
Is it time when the, when the, when the words Oklahoma defense were kind of mutually exclusive? But, you know, Vanibals has changed that, right? I mean, they've improved defensively every year he's been here. I mean, if they started out 90th and points for game his first year and last year they're up to six, right? So I'd expect a Michigan team total around 19. And anything over 17, that probably takes the other. I mean, I'm not going to overreact to Michigan's week one debacle. I'm just taking note of a sooner's defense that's still at the radar. You know, thanks to the, you know, all the material coverage, right? So even even as well as the defense is doing, you know, materials are getting all the press. So yeah, I like Michigan team total under their buddy. Yeah, you know what I would, I would go with you on that side. My thing is I really do think that the, it is a bit of an overreaction because I think that this number, it did creep out a little bit, you know, a little bit higher and then obviously, you know, got taken out rightfully so because I thought that, you know, a little bit more was an overreaction.
So I like the, I like the under in the game. It's kind of, I'm kind of waiting to see I want to go with the first half under as well. I'm expecting Michigan to come up with a little bit more juice to him. I mean, you don't just lose, well, they didn't lose, but you don't kind of go out and get pumped by a Mac team and not respond with the level athletes that they have. So like I said, I do think the worst you know, on field is the Michigan offense. Bryce is going to have to use his legs a ton to kind of negate some of that pressure from Oklahoma's defense. And I think it's the same story for Oklahoma, like my tier is going to have to do some things with his legs. Stay ahead of the chains, whichever team can stay ahead of the chains, you know, convert third and three, third and four. Like stay out of third and sixth, third and seven. I think that team is going to prevail. I expect to be a tight parfault game. So I'm with you on the under. I would I would lean Michigan's way. I mean, I can't get there with the five and a half, but if it was to get up to, you know, I mean, I don't think we're going to see a seven again. But if it's so happen to get up there, I would definitely be inclined to take that.
So from from Michigan to Kentucky, 357, 358 Alabama laying 10 and a half against Kentucky. Over under 49 and a half. This is actually, you know, the first time in 18 years where Alabama has not been in the top, we're not, they're not start in the top 10 for the eight people. So they started off against ECU. You know, a lot of people was, it was a mix reviews. A lot of people were saying they were impressed with Bama. I really wasn't that impressed with them. I mean, they look okay. But I'm down on ECU. So maybe that's why. You know, Kentucky looked good and in the start of their new era. Obviously, you know, competition level is at a premium here than what they face last week. But Kentucky hasn't beat Alabama in 29 years. Long time. Now, I'm not saying that they can beat them. They, but 10 and a half point seems a big, a bit rich for killing Russell was making his first road start. What do you think?
I kind of agree with you there. I mean, a double digit favorite road favorite in the SEC. I mean, anywhere in the P4 road conference when just aren't easy to combine. That's especially true in the SEC, right? I think if you bet every home dog in that role, you'd be profitable over the course of the season. I mean, Kentucky and Alabama kind of both did what they were expected to last week. So we're kind of looking at this one without being jaded by weak one results. And you know, these teams don't play each other out that often now that the SEC has a million teams and throw opposite sides of the draw. You know, the last time they played it was in 2023 when number four at the time Alabama just, mom, I affair a bit with Jalen Milro and NFL defense. You know, they let me get five number one picks off that defense. So a couple of things here. I mean, Alabama is not the same without saving. I thought maybe there would be a modest drop off, but I think it's a big drop off, especially in recruiting. And I think they're starting to be finally priced as such.
I mean, they simply don't have five for us around NFL draft picks on defense. And Kentucky put up over 500 yards of offense on Youngstown State. And I will concede that Alabama is not Youngstown State, but Kentucky won't lack confidence, even without saving. I mean, Alabama brings out the best at everyone, right? I mean, everybody wants to beat Bama. And that's especially true for Kentucky. You know, you mentioned it. I think all time Alabama is 39, 2 and 1. So, you know, motivation right there. And I think Stein had one of the best coaching debuts of history for Kentucky last week. You know, I find media recryses a little unfounded, to be honest. I mean, I know what he did it or gone, but the Orman has better players, right? I mean, but after what I saw last week, he could be the next coach at Michigan. So, you know, I'll gladly take Kentucky here with double digits. I mean, Alabama's, they could already be looking to October with back-to-back games against Georgia, and at Tennessee. So, you know, I wouldn't say take the money line with Kentucky, but if Kentucky wins this game, I would not be surprised.
Yeah, I like Kentucky a lot. I think they are allowed to win the game. And Keeling Russell making his first road start is you got an inexperienced offensive line as will. That could be an issue. You know, Kentucky's strength is their defense of line as far as it on the defense side of the ball. Now, they didn't produce a set last week against young town state, which can be concerning. But if you can play devil's advocate, you can kind of say they were, you know, just being really vanilla. But they are good in the trenches on both sides of the ball. And I think that's a big part of what you want to do against Alabama. It was going to be a physical defense. But on the other side of the ball, like Alabama couldn't run the ball. The running backs couldn't run the ball. A lot of their stuff was done off Keeling Russell designs, kind of scramble mode, a couple of Ryan Williams catches where, you know, outside of the pocket. So I think Kentucky has to do a good job keeping him inside the pocket and force him to beat him from there. And if they have to stack the, they don't have to stack the box because, you know, Alabama has a show. I mean, it's only been one game, but if you date back to last year, they still didn't run the ball will.
And that was what a better offensive line. I think in my opinion from, you know, this from this standpoint. So I like Kentucky in a game. I think they're live. I know you typically like the first half. So I think I'm going to take a first half here. I even take a first half money line. Because I think that place is going to be juiced up week to good weather in Kentucky. Probably going to have a little adult, a couple of dope beverages in from that crowd. They got us in a new regime. So all the fan bases excited and ready to go. I think, I think Kentucky's going to make this game really uncomfortable for Alabama. I'm even taking the first half to get it done on the school board. Maybe, you know, 10, 7, 14, 10 type of score. So I like Kentucky plus the points. I wouldn't be surprised if they wouldn't, I mean, I wouldn't bet it that way. But first half, I do think that they come up with a lot more juice in that first half. So we are, it seems like we're agreeing there on Kentucky. Now we'll go to the, we'll go to the west coast. We're going to go to the west coast for three, eight, three, three, eight, four UCL A lane 12.
And a half against San Diego State total 55 and a half. UCL A got up to a good start. Dave, they got also a good start against cattle. I thought their offense looked really good. I'm San Diego State also, you know, 53 to 20 win over Portland State. I'm in an opener. A lot of, a lot of sharp guys that I know where kind of buyers on San Diego State. Any off season. So what do you like here? Dave 12 and a half point favorite. Maybe a similar situation. We'll just talk about. Yeah, very possible. I mean, the Bruins won and they covered against cowl, right? And one of the reasons I thought we might do this game is I think we talked about that game last week. So I mean, I was a tie game after three quarters, right? And UCLA was almost unstoppable and offensive. A average eight, eight and a half yards per play. A ton of that on the ground. And now they get an Aztec defense that's typically one of the best. But, you know, they're not going to want to shoot out. I mean, they just don't have it offensively. I know they scored 53 on Portland State, but, you know, 237 of their 394 yards on offense came on the ground.
But I mean, that's their typical M.O. It has been for decades, right? Run the ball. Control the clock. Play great defense. I mean, the question is, can they do that against UCLA on the road? And it's the Bruins first home game where there might be some buzz, you know, maybe they get 50,000 in the Rose Bowl. I have no idea. But, you know, UCLA, they did allow 400 yards of offense to Cal. And of course, some of that was in garbage time. But, you know, Cal turned the ball over three times. And I don't think the Aztecs will be that generous. I think if San Diego State needs motivation, they can, Lewis can simply point out that UCLA is 21 and one all time. I can see in the able state. And speaking of Lewis, my jury's still out. I mean, I know he took over a bad team in 2024. They went three and nine. But then, nine and four last year, and they made it to the Montwest Championship game, which Montwest is kind of this year's de facto, back 12, if you will. So I would expect them to be there. But I don't know if that has anything to do with this game. But it's not a bad spot for the Bruins because they're at home next week against Purdue.
So no travel and, you know, going forward and I do like to look forward, it gets tough for them. You know, that big 10 travel for some of those teams. They go to Maryland, then they come back to play Oregon. So that game at Maryland might be a kind of a look ahead. But Maryland wager for me if anybody's taken notes. But you know, back to here. I mean, I think I'd be on the UCLA team total. It's going to be a big number. Probably 33 ish, but I think anything less than 35 is probably good and why is that? Well, we know the biggest improvement from week one to week two is always on offense, right? The timing gets better. And this year, I don't think Lewis has the defense to stop a team that average eight and a half yards per play last week. So I like the over and I like the UCLA team total over as well. They for the program need to continue to make statements. Man, we don't share notes, David. All to the audience. We don't share notes. We don't we kind of just go back and forth about the games, but don't share notes. But that's exactly what I got. I know that team total is 34 and a half because I bet that a little bit earlier on.
I mean, I think you just highlight a lot of what I was going to say as to why I liked it. I mean, San Diego. Sorry, sorry about that. No, no, it's fine. It just strength is the case. But they so San Diego state they did have a 50% success rate against Portland state, but they also allow 48% support in the state. And that's something that you know, you can kind of factor in garbage time as well. But they allowed a 56% rush success rate versus Portland state. Now that's not going to be the type of defense that you want to play against UCLA who had 60% success rate. They had a 13% explosive play rate 70% rushing success rate. So I mean, I think that offense was humming. They had nearly a full a plus four in your pro plate margin. They converted third downs at a high clip state ahead of the chains, which is what you want to do with Nico at quarterback. Now, the secondary did have some some miscues at times, but they're playing a better quarterback. They were playing a better quarterback with JK is San Diego state want to run the ball. So I expect them to I expect their defense to be really good.
Maybe convert or maybe to give a few takeaways. San Diego state did have three turnovers in that game. I think UCLA runs all over them runs wild. And like you said, it's going to be a whole good home crowd for a new regime. If they could put up 40 plus points here, I think they will big number total is right around where I like it. So I like that team told over 34 and a half. So I guess we go together on that one day. So that that's got to be that has to be like that much. But yeah, I think that UCLA team told over 34 and a half. It is a good. Good for you. Maybe she just give that I was our best bat. And hit stop recording. Maybe, maybe, but excuse me, we got a couple more games to go. We'll start off with three. Start up with 365, 365, one of the biggest games in in the week. I think Boise State at home minus eight and a half over under 54 and a half against Memphis.
I mean, massive playoff implications from the G six level. Boise State is actually favored right now. So I think that's a good thing to be the representative for the group of six. Their fringe top 25 team after a loss to Oregon, they played Oregon really, really tough. Probably a couple of plays here and there from winning that game. I think the deciding factor in a game day is going to be who stays ahead of the chains. Both quarterback need to be do not need to be a known passing down. I think the teams are kind of mirror images of each other. There is a little rich, but what about you do? Yeah, I mean, you mentioned it. Boise played Oregon at a whole lot tougher than a lot of people expected. I mean, Oregon was kind of the lemming of the month in week one. And by lemming, I mean, you know, everybody follows the lemmings over the cliff. Because everybody had Oregon and that didn't work out. I mean, they dragged a cool aid. And I think now that I'll be all over Boise here. You know, that's not what I said about, forget what I said about biggest improvements being on offense week, week over a week right now.
And you know, don't think more was doing it when the new receiving core. I don't want to diminish what Boise was able to do, but I'm not just drinking the bronco cool aid without looking at what's under the hood here. Boise could be favorite in all the remaining games for that matter. I looked a little bit and, you know, but by how many, is it too many? I mean, the early money actually came in here on Memphis and opened eight and a half and went to seven and a half. So not that it's going to major key numbers, but I mean, it's telling on some level. I mean, people wrote off Memphis before the UNFA game even started. I was the August lemming of the month, right? And you and I've been lost out right. I mean, my issue here with the Tigers might be the travel. You know, they're also playing their third game, which is a plus. But they flew back to Memphis to be Arkansas State. Now back out to I know, obviously, after being in Vegas. And, you know, they a lot of Tommy Yards Arkansas State through the air. So what I do know, Boise, you spend a ton of time in the off season on tackling drills. And that's what paid off in spades against the ducks.
They didn't get the yards after catches. Memphis won't pose that challenge. And I doubt Boise is hanging their heads really. I mean, given what the season still holds. You know, you mentioned it, you know, the group of six. And I'd be looking at the Broncos team total here. I think it'd probably be a touch over 31. I have a look today. The books don't put up team total still this afternoon. I don't think books will make it that easy. But I also don't think it'll matter. I mean, if they had a look ahead spot, which they don't and reconsider. But I think I bet that Boise team total. And if it ever gets to seven, I could consider the Broncos. But what I really like here is, you know, giving you a vet that doesn't exist. I would really look at Boise in the second half because I think the altitude would kill Memphis, which is why I didn't take the first half. So if I like Memphis, I might like them early. But I think Boise comes out strong. So, you know, maybe Boise in the first quarter, you know.
I really want to take Memphis. I really do. But I just think, you know, that would have to be a first half bet. Because I think I think they travel in the altitude. Kind of might might trump the fact that while they're playing in the third game, which is a plus. But yeah, that's kind of how I see that game. Probably the Boise team total over. Yeah, I think you mentioned a good thing. That's exactly what I was going to bring up with the travel. Not to mention it was a big home opener because they open a new stadium. So, you know, a lot of things went into that. I think they did a lot of promo for that as well in the Memphis area. So, that's something that you, you know, you can't really factor into, you know, to a number, but we can factor into our handicap. And I mean, I think both of these teams are pretty similar as well. Both teams want to run the ball, stay ahead of the chains. I mean, I think I would trust Boise. He's going to back a little bit more being that he's at home. Kind of been through these big game situations where on the other side. The quarterback hasn't kind of been in these situations per se. I know you know, he was a good win, tough win.
I think Boise is, you know, a little bit better than what they are. The reason that I kept me off it was Memphis is like Rush defense. Like you said, allowed 195 yards, 6.3 yards per carry to UNLV. And, you know, Boise, they didn't run, they didn't run the ball as well. But again, this was against Oregon. And Memphis, I would respect the Memphis. They don't have the type of defense that Oregon has. So, I think we could see, we should see a little bit more momentum for it. Momentum going for Boise. So, Memphis can also run a ball. So, Boise is going to have to try to stop there running. Jalen Carter. I mean, he went from back up to a media impact. He had 150 total yards, Rush and yards last year. Now, 280 Rush and yards, 5 touchdowns, 8.2 yards per carry. So, I really think that Memphis can hang in there. I'm going to take a shot, just lean with them all on the number 8.5. And over a touchdown. I wanted to go a more low-as-horn game. But I can see the explosives on the ground kind of reshaping that.
So, I'm going to lean to Memphis, nothing strong. But this is a game that I would enjoy to watch and kind of learn a lot from. So, yeah, so that'll be the penultimate game. Now, we got the final game, which is probably one of the biggest games that we'll see on the year. I mean, outside of the national championship. These two might be in a national championship. But we're going to go with the 0-3 95-396 Texas minus 1 and a half minus 120 on the Moneyline plus 105 for the Ohio State Booker's over under 49 and a half. Like I said, one of the only two, one of only two top five matchups on the schedule as it currently stands. Oklahoma State looking to go three in a, I mean, Oklahoma State Ohio State looking to go. Oklahoma State looking for a lot right now. Yeah, they are. Ohio State looking to go three in 0 in three years versus Texas. Not many teams can't say they've done that. But this is the first time they're a dog since 2023.
And since 2020, 2017, when the number one team is a dog, they're winneless. So, that's something to go for Texas aside. But, number's kind of been, you know, steady here. You know, both teams did what they were supposed to do. I think Ohio State played probably a half, but Texas, you know, they were supposed to do as well. But, title in the books, Dave, what do you like here in the biggest game of the week? Yeah, I mean, there's a lot going on here, really. I mean, you know, you mentioned it. They played in Columbia last year. It was the first game of the season. And it was a defensive struggle. And they actually played the last game of the season prior. They played in the cotton bowl, which was also a defensive struggle. So, you know, Texas gets him an Austin for the first time, you know, down O2, I guess. I know everyone's going to be on Texas mainly because of that. But, you know, sure enough, the bucket I actually opened is slight favorites. And now it's, I think Texas that's slight favorites is, is that move correct?
What's changed? I mean, I don't know. I mean, man, it looked great last week, but against nobody. Say and look great last week, but against nobody, right? But I think sayings everybody's good as the golden child. And I think that he was recruited by say, but he transferred when Nick retired. So, as far as big game experience, I think I'd actually signed with say in here. I mean, he won a national championship as a backup, you know, do it. So, do we like Sarkeesian? Or do we like Day? I mean, I like Day, right? I mean, the only things Sarkeesian's ever won is with or under Nick Sabin. So, I think we have the better coach and we might have the better quarterback. You know, I have to think the better defense is going to win. I mean, do we have the better defense? I think we do. I mean, I believe we do. I think the buck eyes had been scoring defense each of the last two years. You know, and everybody's, I think it was second, three years ago. Everybody's always talking about their offensive. You know, the guys who get the glory and their headlines, but, you know, that defense is pretty sick. I mean, Texas is too. Don't hear what I'm not saying.
But I think with the personal changes in CFP anymore, that's saying something. And they've done it against good teams. And as much as I do, I do harrowing big 10 offenses being less than good. Let's just call it that. I'm going to take a higher state here. I almost kind of see Texas being the, the loving this week, right? Because everybody's going to be on Texas. I'm giving you a reason why I would not be. Yeah, you know what I mean? I know everybody's not going to like this, but just a game. I'm probably going to sit out. I think it's a very interesting. I can make cases for both sides. And it's not big enough to where I can, you know, just take the, the dog. I mean, 105 is, is fine with, with, with, uh, state, but yeah, I just don't, I want to watch these two teams. Because like you say, we didn't learn it, son. I mean, Ohio State play to have Texas was, was fine. But they're often, they're, they're in game still, you know, has to be like, it has to work well to get arched. So I expect arch to, you know, use his legs a little bit more.
Um, smoothers is definitely upgraded at running back. He could be vital in the past game here. I do think Ohio State defense is, I don't think it's better, but I think it's, I think is inexperienced. Uh, the talent, talent level was probably about the same. Like when it gets there, but it's just inexperienced right now. So. Their defensive scheme with Patricia is obviously going to, you know, be designed to take away. Archers first read and to make him think, make him pat the ball kind of like what they did in that first matchup. So I really think that this is going to be a good exes and those, uh, chess match between these two teams. I would go, I would lean under if anything. I mean, the only thing that, you know, Texas, they might not have won, but they've done things to Jeremiah Smith that not teams, not many teams have. I mean, in two meetings against these guys, seven catches on the table. Um, against these guys, seven catches on 13 targets, 46 yards, no touchdowns. Um, but again, this is a will must champ defense and not peak with topsy.
So that's something that you got to look at. I'm also worried about Sarkin the red zone as, you know, he's been, um, for quite some time. Uh, I got this from Tom Frennellia, CBS, as far as the finishing drive. So since start took over Texas, average and 4.4 points per red zone possession. 53rd nationally, 4.26 when I face in, um, P 14. So he can run from, he can go from 20 to 20. But when it gets to the red zone and it's time to score, he struggles a little bit. And I think that's where you have to utilize archers legs. So, um, I think I'm going to stay with the, I'm going to stay with the under. Um, I don't really don't have a thought on the side to be honest. I mean, I can make a case. I couldn't argue the under other than. Can it be that easy? Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Yeah. Yeah, I get it. Yeah. It might be. It might be 30 to 10. Yeah. But I think that I think it's going to be a little bit more exciting as far as a game. But it could still be low score. Um, you know, so we can go under what 24 20.
That's a, that's a good game. That's a good solid game. And we still go under that number. So, um, that'll. I don't know. I don't know anybody that'll be on the over. So maybe I will be. I don't know. Yeah. So, uh, we'll go with a, with a quick hitter here or something. A game that, um, that I think is really intriguing underrated game. Uh, 355, 356 Mississippi State travels to Minnesota and they've all kicked this one off since I, since you know, I put it on a card. Um, I like Minnesota a lot in this game. I mean, the numbers kind of ping pong back and forth. Mississippi State. I mean, opened up a bigger favorite. Um, the money kind of came in on, on Minnesota, which is rightfully so I think. Um, complete contrast of styles to the highest degree. And so the ones that go slow Mississippi State wants to go lighten the fast. I mean, come on, I'll tell you what for Mississippi State's been all the praise and week one. Um, he had a big game showcasing his arm strength. Um, but can it be more balanced and not ask him to do so much because this is a place where the go for us. I've not law did not lose a game last year, seven to know at home last year. Um, they have to the best pass rushes in the country.
Mississippi State's Olon, you know, especially at tackle could be an issue. I like Drake Lindsey's passing in his decision making. I think that'll be key. Um, against Mississippi State. They love to be aggressive. I think that they're going to use that Minnesota going to use that aggression against them. I like the gopher to get it done at home. One of my favorite bits on a car, Dave. You know, I don't have a strong opinion on this game. But I did look at it. Because I told you I would. Um, but you know, I mean, I'm an SEC guy. So I'm not going to make a pick and game. So I don't. I think they're value lives in the total. And, you know, maybe here's why I mean, one of the things Mississippi State always has is a good defense. Um, if they had an offense. Since Dak Prescott left, they might have done a little better in the SEC. And one of the things Minnesota does not have and has never had is ever the good offense. So I would look at that under. I mean, I sit in a 55 and a half.
I don't see it. Um, I think, uh, especially in week two with those two teams. I don't think the offense is going to gel. So I would, I would. I like the under there quite a bit. Actually, I mean, he's just, I think the perception of week one probably maybe has that total a little higher than it needs to be. So yeah, I, I think Mississippi State will be able to contain them. I don't think Mississippi State will be able to score. So I do like your Minnesota pick, but I also think the game stays under. Yeah, that's fair. I mean, I like the under. I think I think Minnesota is going to control the tempo. So we'll close us out with a two and a half minutes last week. Dave, um, let's, let's close it out with another two and a week. What you got for us this week. Yeah, I'm going to take app state right now. It's seven and a half there on the road to at East Carolina. And I think the reason people might like East Carolina. Right is, you know, oh, well, they played Alabama. And so app states are stepped down in class. Well, no kidding, right? But, you know, what did they do against Alabama?
Even in garbage time, they got next to nothing. 162 total yards, two rushing yards, two. And that's just not going to win football games. And I think app state, you know, they went through that thing, you know, with Santa Fe, you know, the young of the yard, they were good like year in a year out. They're still good. Are they, are they that good? No, but they're far too good to be given seven and a half points to in that game. So I, I will take app state plus seven and a half at East Carolina. Yes. The game probably goes over, but you know, I just think East Carolina, like, you're in and near out. They lack defense like everywhere, right? Yeah. So I don't think they can run away and hide from app state. So even if ECU's ahead, I don't think it'll ever be more than two scores. We go back door. Who knows? I just don't think ECU can run away and hide. Yeah, in state battle, a lot of recruitment wars can be won on this game.
So yeah, I like that. I probably have to add that to my card. Real quick, I go over my best bit, three, 43, Cal over 56 and a half with going against Syracuse. I mean, Cal, we talked about Cal a little bit in a UCLA game, but I mean, they had a 46% success rate versus versus UCLA. They also allowed 45 points and a 60% success rate allowed. I mean, 13% explosive play rate, including six on the ground, queues through up 66 points versus new Hampshire. They're going to run a lot of tempo. They have six explosive plays, three each passing and rushing. I think both quarterbacks, one of throw the ball. Cues, like I said, up tempo. That means that could also mean, you know, short fields for turnovers, pick sixes, these different things. So I think it's a lot of ways to get over this number Syracuse's defense is their weak point. Obviously, we didn't see that in week one. But Cal played UCLA tough. Like you said, I mean, they just, you know, JKS got hurt a little bit.
So that kind of negated that fact, but they moved the ball on the offense, you know, to a certain degree. Excuse me, only only two sacks on defense. So I think that queues should be able to do what they want as well. So I'm trusting both offenses to get the job done. I like that over 56 and a half. I think both teams can maybe get the 30 here, Dave. So that'll be my best bit for this week. And broke down a few of our favorite games to bet on a lot of actionable info. So hopefully we can get to the window and we'll be back with another two and a week. Everybody enjoy your weekend. Don't, you know, use your bank real wisely. I don't feel starting as well. Get the best of the number. And we'll see you guys back here next week. Same time.
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