CFT - 96 Rest of Season Outlook

0:00What is happening? Welcome to the latest episode of the craft. My name is Nick Pollock and today we are going to talk about the rest of the season. It is September 2nd and one of the things I think is most interesting about this time of year is when we reflect on this in November, December, we treat the entire season as one item, as one entity. While there are a lot of guys who do really well for four or five months and then they do poorly in September and vice versa. Some guys save their seasons in September and I want to talk to someone really smart but who those guys are, who are the ones that we should maybe say look they're going to have a bad September, it's going to look different but they're actually better than this or some guys who are actually doing really well all of a sudden and we feel like that will continue in for next year and who better than Inosaris. Welcome to the show. Thanks for having me. When I'm fresh back from Sabre Seminar, just watching two days worth of nerdery on baseball, it was great. So okay what was the most

1:02interesting thing you saw at Sabre Seminar? There was one about arm injury due to arm angles and sweepers. So sweepers from high arm angles being a big injury factor. There was another about, they were doing a study about pitch calling and trying to find the value of pitch calling but they had to back out every other thing. So they created their own stuff model, they created their own deception model, which they did by using swing characteristics with with batters and like basically mist distance and stuff like that. So they had to build an entire theory of baseball and like the last part they were like well this is what's missing so that might be the value of the catcher pick calling pitches. Which I thought was was fun. There's a lot of stuff where now we're looking at stuff models and trying to derive secondary stuff from them. There's a person that was using

2:04some mathematical concepts to try and find to find the value of one tick of velocity is not as easy as it sounds because velocity is just one of you know 10 important features in the model. And so you would theoretically have to keep nine steady and just tick up one. Right. You know like which is not how it works. The spin goes up with velocity and all this stuff. So you know you know it's not as easy specifically because I always kind of treat velocity as this is what they do at this velocity. So a velocity tick for one guy is different than a velocity tick for another guy. Right because we've established a baseline and now it's different. Right. Yeah that's exactly what we'd like to figure out is are there fastballs that would gain more or less from more velocity right? Sure right. Like you have a fragile fastball for this guy. Yeah sure. Yeah that's a really interesting question. Well that and was there like a nertery spreadsheet about spreadsheets you see at

3:07nerdery? No no no no it was the quality of the actual presentations has gone up because of AI all the slides are better looking. Yeah the the actual inherent quality you know it's it's you have to you have to have a lot of them offer getting up there and standing up there and speaking and it is a there are a lot of them young students but there were there were some mistakes made in terms of you know analysis of of you know co co correlations like these things are all correlated and you put them together or you didn't hold the thing constant when you should have and stuff like that so yeah but you know one of the big main topics was correct ABS strategy and then people are still chasing the correct sequencing strategy so you know you know you're never going to get that you know because it's it's it's game theory and I think this is actually one of the elements that

4:14I think fascinates me the most about I think well okay about just you know pitch calling and and really honestly the whole analytics conversation which I know is a terrible I hate that phrase as much as anyone else the one part that I think this isn't expressed enough is when you think of the traditional old school like oh stats whatever and analytics and they use that with the venom right and then you have the you know the people who are trying to use this extra information to tell better story what happens a lot I'm not saying all the time but what can happen is that you have blanket statements that are because this is a higher chance than than not applying it we're going to apply it we're going to say like well this is generally good this is one number that's higher than the southern number that's it's good and obviously that can get into a bit of messy situation because just because it's a necessarily overall scenarios this is the best thing doesn't mean necessarily for this one it is the best right and the more granularly can get into that one

5:15scenario you're still going to always get it to a higher percentage theoretically based on past results in some fashion but ultimately it's never quite this guaranteed certainty that this is the best thing right and when it comes to sequencing I am so so adamant about the need to analyze the nuance of the batter in the moment it is oh my gosh and it's one of the things we can't really like quantify at the moment because it's always different are they leaning away or not are they bluffing when they do something or not right and that's why I think the I don't know the ultimate answer to sequencing is never going to be solved also because it's again like a poker match or where it's I don't want to say chess match because that's used too much it is poker where like they're bluffing and they're giving signs in what how people act in and in play is going to be always changing so we're going to have one thing of sequencing on a Tuesday then by Friday it's not

6:16going to be good anymore right so that's where I am on sequence I gave up on it a while ago we came up with PLV I was like we've got the thing now we can just say you know which are the PLV values that are underperforming and then we can just say great that sequencing there it is this should be common theme with all of these that are underperforming and then I realized oh right but no we can't we can't really do that so it will forever be that's you know the holy grail but I don't really think it can ever be achieved unless you read my of course my secret article the secrets of sequencing that's right but you know what are the there's another like statistical problem with it which is pervasive and really hard to deal with in all of in all of the sort of statistical analysis right now that's dealing with these these numbers is like you're what you're often trying to do is take something like sequencing see what's the value of putting pitch 1 2 3 4 5

7:18in order right yeah right if you if you then take pitch 1 2 3 4 5 in order and you say what you know when these pitches have been thrown you know well what happens if that 1 2 3 4 5 happens to be a a pitch frequency that like Jake DeGrom throws a lot yeah sure yeah right the what's the value of the pitch of the pitches themselves in that sequence right machine learning will then learn Jake DeGrom and be like well these five are good because you know Jake DeGrom it's called identity leakage so it's happening is that the pitchers with such high stuff for a while you know maybe as a reference point which was insanely good or or flubber whatever it was right whatever the original the original sweeper god was Evan Phillips but the yeah so what what happens is that the this person came and presented and said that these results that have been published and used by major league teams yeah are have identity leakage in them because even if you say

8:24oh we won't do 1 2 3 4 5 we'll do 1 2 and in 3 4 5 and 2 3 we'll split them up like that the machine can still sometimes go and realize oh that here's 1 2 3 4 5 I'll reconstruct it yeah right yeah and oh that's that's works really well I say everyone should throw like Jake DeGrom you're like hmm so anyway it's a it's a pervasive problem statistics and there's different ways to deal with it and there's you know it's that was something to think about but you know yeah ABS strategy was you think that the the most simplest ABS strategy has solved it which is just you know basically unless you're fully sure wait until the end wait until the last few innings because right the value of goes up in the end but the thing that is interesting about ABS is if you challenge and you are right you get another yeah yeah yeah so that's really always taken into account that it's like it's a free one almost I think people sometimes think of it as two right yeah you just only have two of them yeah it's two plus right so the the ideal strategy might end up with you

9:29getting four challenges in the game yeah because you did two correct ones or whatever so and then the other thing that was interesting from that was um using it early is not you can't only say okay he used it early and it was right or it was wrong and therefore the value of that was either right or wrong was also true is if it was wrong he loses the chance to use it again later yeah so the opportunity cost right you have to actually simulate the rest of the game and say oh he could have used it in these places yeah so when you have to predict how many are going to happen in general perinning or whatever it is then you can say cool these are the opportunities that you lost and so on and general I think that like next year we'll have a second year things will actually be different in landscape because I think there are certain teams that are just not dialed in their ABS strategy you know the reds and the twins were way aggressive way out in front but there are other teams that just seem to be kind of less a fair about it I think year two will give them a chance to

10:30to change their strategy yeah I mean I'll be honest with you I don't hate the whole green red book over the over the railing of the of the yeah here's the thing about that like I get it it's communication of information in a way that isn't you know fine then like we give signs all the time for whatever we want though yeah there's gonna be like a like there's okay if you just on a green or a red okay you know you you take a look after it and you see if their hat is backwards or like you know someone's got a thing on their right shoulder and who cares if they break that code that's what ones you don't care if they break because it's like oh he's gonna challenge or not challenge I'm gonna pitch this in the perfect place yeah that's what challenge it you can pitch in the perfect position or the new one you do that regardless um yeah and that's actually the last the last element about the sequencing stuff that meant to bring up was so much of it is like assuming that they're capable you know it's just okay well hold on the

11:37sequences go all the right pitch and it's broken or like oh no I just threw this slider but like I don't have a feel for this at all I can't do that again oh no what do I do just he know that and there's so much about that I mean David Conan will still tell you that the three two splitter he threw was the right pitch right uh so it's it's all of those things and it's just so absurdly nuanced that I can't yeah I don't I don't believe that you can really solve that one and the ABS question is a very very interesting one I still I still feel that there should be one extra element you know where if the ABS system definitively knows it is just not a called strike or it's not a called ball like literally like the full ball inside the zone or like a full baseball out of the zone there should be an automatic yo just screwed it up like nobody wants that

12:37right like you feel I just think of Joe Nathan's more closer to full full ABS well no no but at least like the close ones whatever but it's like so demonstratively bad like the Joe Nathan going wow you know like you know what I'm talking about where you threw that one of the splitter down away that they called her a slider that was like in the dirt that they called strike three to end a game uh it's it's the things like that and that's what you really want to prevent like that's ultimately what I think about with all these rules was slow motion in precision it's truly not about like the exact precision to me it's to remove the egregiousness you know it like I think about it with the slow motion replays at second base where they're sliding into second was he safer was he out and he was safe but then oh no half a second the spike came up a millimeter and he's like hovering for just the smallest amount of time and they have no way you could have seen that with your naked eyes exactly nobody feels that that guy was out because he got his

13:40actually some of the negative reaction ABS has been like like these are these are impossible like they did these are impossible to know if this is a strike or not you know that we're talking about like these you know I'm fine with ABS existing as it does it's the system I proposed years ago and I'm very happy that someone from the Padres was like no it's going to be terrible and I don't agree with it and then they saw it in the miners like oh never mind this is a great I think it's been but it may lose its novelty though I mean you know we'll see we'll see right now it's a novel thing that people enjoy looking at but at some point it may lose its novelty so well speaking of novelties is there a guy that you have to talk about who you feel is a novelty right now or just really the guy that just cannot escape your mind what pitcher is that for you Eno? I don't know it's just it's just who I've been thinking about the last day day and a half is you know there's a pitcher who is in the battle for the Saiyung he is in a virtual tie for first place

14:43no matter how what what war you look at he's he's right there his team has a chance of making the postseason and isn't out of it yet if he could just pitch at his best you know the Toronto blue jays you know are still in it and right now Dylan Seas is down he's down big in terms of velocity lost only Jacob Mizorowski in case he might have lost more velocity since June of course Jacob Mizorowski's coming away from a 102 sitting so he was down to takes a 98.7 or something yes I'm not that worried about him Casey Meijs of course I've we've been worried about on this podcast for months now yeah but Dylan Seas down 1.9 ticks if you look at at stuff lost only Jack Perkins and Christopher Sanchez are down more than Dylan Seas and again on that list Andrew Abbott who's been really struggling Casey Meijs Tanner Bivy so you know I it's the weirdest thing and

15:48I don't know why I mean obviously he could be nursing an injury what what really worries me is that he's not feeling good and he's powering through it because the Toronto blue jays could make the postseason yeah and because he could win a Saiyung and maybe he just sort of limps his way through he's been a largely healthy pitcher you know but I'm also wondering how much I should remember this the next year if he does make it through and he's fine and what if he even wins a Saiyung will people remember how much his velocity was down in September that is the conversation that leads this podcast today and you want to know the most interesting stat I see it's very apparent with Dylan Seas outside of course velocity loss the I think it was yeah 24 straight games Dylan Seas has recorded both a double digit swing strike rate and double digit whiffs and on the 20th of August it was the only game all season where he had eight whiffs and 9% swing strike rate like

16:50single digits for both all it's just you can see it just falling that was 24 in his very first game of the year he still got eight strikeouts but that hasn't quite affected the bottom line yet it is it's also one of those things where you kind of almost want to make these notes for next year where you know we remember things in certain ways we remember hot we remember hot starts we forget the the poor endings you know right yeah or we forget guys who were peripherally unsupport had peripherally unsupported success at the end of the season or something it's almost like the there's the the NCAA tournament boost the people talking about basketball where like a guy will like to run his way through the NCAA tournament and you'll forget that it was just six games or whatever you know right yeah you know and people will be like oh got to draft that guy that guy was awesome and then you forget where he was drafted in the actual draft you forget his team role you forget all the context yeah so you know I this this will probably affect my ranking of Dylan

17:56C. Snacks year in some way even if he wins the Siam you know because I have to remember I mean it's a it's a two ticks is a lot it's a lot you know especially for a guy that was plus Velo he now he's average V though this is average VLo now right I'm sorry I'm laughing just because I realized that the conversation which I agree with I think it's a very interesting one and everything about like right you were going to carry this over there are these nuances that should not get lost it's also a conversation that says I think I don't know how to rank Dylan C. Snacks year that's also a conversation because he's such like every other year dude you're almost like okay I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna give him the every other year penalty you know oh man I mean it is it is really bonkers out of what is it like a 36% strikeout rate for Dylan C. the season and that is in absolutely insane 36% 120 22 he had an absolutely insane season he had a 31% strikeout rate had a 2 2 ERA for 184 innings and you were like yes everybody draft Dylan

19:02C. Why not he is an ace's ace go get him and then the next year he had a 458 ERA like yeah he is he still is a weird committee I mean he has 11% walk rate and yeah I think one of the I mean we could look at Babip all you want to me what's actually more interesting is HIPR9 because HIPR9 like okay if you're saying that it's a fewer he's going to get fewer strikeouts right he's gonna a fan fewer batters and that K-Ray goes down what happens is that none it's more walks and it's more hits and the compounding factor is a huge one right it's not just oh he's easy a ray goes like up like 0.7 or something like that like no that's how you get those swings because if you're not striking them out then you're either walking them for the most part or you're putting more balls on play that are not likely to be as beneficial for you yeah so yeah that I mean that's a really good point on cease and I wouldn't be surprised though that it won't be one that you really need to write down because the way that it's going right now like this is

20:03something's gonna happen he's got a full month now right like it's not just gonna be something that happens and no one notices it okay so what I am hearing is that Schloeler's gonna win the Siam ultimately you heard if there is a if there is a if there is a you know an advantage right now it is in his department you know he's ahead by a fraction of a war in every place but yeah you look at that B.Lo graph and it's not one that ceases necessarily had before in his career you can kind of look across his career he's not a guy who fades in the second half although he did like little bit last year so maybe this is just you know what happens as you get older yeah there's also someone else who's on the other side of their career who I know I feel like a lot of people have had them in their head but there's just one element of this that's just so funny to me and I really need to talk about it with you outside who that is you know after this break I'm sure this is you know this guy has come up massively and I think one of the hardest things

21:07that we do in this industry is look at a picture and say yes everyone this person had a 426 year A and a 136 whip in it 21% K rate and a 12% walk rate and yes it was not very good and I am going to not treat him like that for next year I'm gonna treat like he's a better picture than that and he and we're goes what what were you talking about then they give you all the stats about this past year I'm like yes that's valid that is what he did but that doesn't mean that that's who he is in the future I mean any sort of picture who improves is going to break that in some way and this is Baba Chandler you know hi Baba Chandler yes oh I know how dare you Nick bring him up well this is just funny to me because Baba Chandler throughout the entire season has taken this slider in curveball I'm I'm going to put rabbit ears you should watch this on YouTube of course and all he's done is essentially taken both of them and just move them higher up and added their

22:08velocities to the point that Savant has called both of these a slider in a curveball and it's laughably not okay it is an 89 mile per hour curveball that is as gyro slider as you'll find I mean it is a slider that's a cutter it's a slider that has a plus six six seven and is that 92 and what is really fascinating is what you see from the velocities of his last start Baba Chandler through 97 which is almost two ticks down by the way and on his foreseamer and about 96 97 on his sinker he also was down three ticks on his change up down to 88 it looks like there was some splitter thing going on because he does have these few of these changes that are actually maybe kickchanges instead don't know but there's a big gap between a lot of them but that curveball and that slider both gained velocity almost three ticks on the curve and 92 now in the slider not 91 and what is 89 my curve dude come on it's not even a curve anymore exactly this is zero it's a zero

23:13zero it's actually has a positive IVB plus one yeah how can you do that so what I see though I'm reading this and I go okay you got you through only six of those gyro sliders at 89 and you through 24% sliders at 20 so hold on a second like not even a third of all of your pitches were either these breaking balls right like over 67% are either a foreseamer a sinker or a change up why why are we doing this yeah and stuff like that curveball the best of course it's an 89 bar mile per hour gyro we've seen this gyro sliders are back if you ask me I like the more than 99 90 yeah I've seen that like the dead actual bullet 89 gyro is great it's better than like the uh I want to say Jared Jones has one that's like minus six hunter brown has one too that are getting more

24:14sweep and I'm I'm I'm wondering I mean this is just Nick being Nick whatever about like the tilt of the bat and I'm using an electronic screwdriver here to show this that the tilt of the bat if you have a gyro it's going to go down and miss here so if you see my knuckle that is where the ball is going to actually end up but if it has the sweep it's going to keep going down the bat right it's going to follow it just a little bit more that is my theory as to why some of these are the gyro sliders gain whiffs and the ones with an extra amount of sweep that you think would be good is actually bad yeah and I think there's a continuum there where you know we've seen that like vertical movement is more correlated with whiffs and then side to side is a little bit more correlated with ground ball rate or contact suppression I think a sweeper a true sweeper is maybe more of a contact suppression pitch that is a wee a wee pitch we we will see the big sweeper guys get whiffs and you can get whiffs under under it because it'll stay up but some of these sweepers

25:18aren't true sweepers we are seeing sweepers that stay above the zero line oh man the hand of god ones those dread me those are real I think those might be the only real sweepers because the idea of a sweeper is that the seams are keeping it up not down yeah right so the real sweepers are ones where the spin is keeping it up and keeping it above that zero line those I think people swing under you know so in your sort of demonstration it's a little bit different they kind of go they if this is the bat they you know I'm right you know you're above that end of the bat yeah they above it yeah they just go so far but they don't go down like a slurve is bad because it just goes right along the bat yeah slurve kind of comes in and just go you know right sweeper would stay above and you co underneath it yeah so but then there's a lot of misclassified ones and and of course worse ones and then there are some slurves that are classified as sweepers where because if I think the if I understand it correctly Sevant unless there's either a the picture calls it a sweeper or b it's over 10 to 10 points of like horizontal movement oh sure

26:23I mean there was some that like have like a scattering from like 15 to five and they're all splitters yeah they they say that Bob with throws a splitter is a sweeper and it doesn't even know the assignment I don't see one here in mine at least for uh for the last game that Baba had let's see across this is oh yeah right he's got them inside of six I think those are just yeah the sliders that sometimes get you know because it's 88 on those right sometimes they get but they they're barely sweepers they do stay above the zero line but they're they're like 11 yeah and I think the point I'm really trying to nail down is I don't want that extra sweep I want the same velocity same vert without the sweep and it's the same way honestly with four seamers right I mean we have their whole conversation about cut fastballs I I we just see more whiffs without the cut and I call it the plane 1000 cuts for that reason where it's just like you start to get hurt if you start to go over it because you're now not missing upstairs and above the bats anymore

27:27you're you're helping making contact that's why those cut four seamers are just harder to turn into with machines so Baba Chandler hey man you know there was one game too that you all suddenly like went two ticks harder as if like that was your issue like I'm not doing well okay I agree with it and rivet dude right and the thing is like when he first came up Baba Chandler was actually I thought of him as a command guy like watching him last year in in relief for those short starts I was like oh man this is someone who's executing plans got the whole thing and now I'm just seeing yeah exactly what you said grip it and rip it if I were to have a you know a voice in his ear I would say try one game just going 25% cutters 25% gyro sliders and just see what happens just what why not I don't know why bitches don't just do that enough I don't know obviously it's not me with their future and all that kind of stuff but when you have the runway with your team can you

28:27go to your team and just say hey guys so okay if I just use this game to experiment just a little bit because I'm not doing well enough anyway can I just experiment just one this one game I'm not gonna like get repercussions or anything for that like if it's really bad like it's okay we're not gonna make the playoffs you know is that okay I would love that to happen I would encourage that on my teams honestly I would say like guys use this take advantage of the September if you don't have the playoff race like do whatever you need to get better so Baba Chandler I I want to see it once if I see it once I might be convinced for next year that might be one of those guys that I could convince for next year well anything else there in Baba Chandler no but I I mean I do like that there's differentiation you can see it like you saying that the sliders getting harder the you know there's there's differentiation on the breaking balls so you know if he's fastball sinker cutter power slider power change you know next year that that seems like something that could work he deal he does still kind of have this issue of everything being a little bit better

29:32against uh well he doesn't really have like the big breaking ball that would strike out righties oh interesting I mean the gyro should though if you can command it George Clawson's it's like the same same yeah I think if he can command it I mean we have to just put that right low in a way right you have to put it exactly but yeah I've got a name for you we've talked about him a lot over the years but there seems to be something changing is that being math used? Debbie Matthews has gained a tick and gained a little bit of velocity and a little bit of stuff and he's just on a pretty good stretch and so I wonder if there's anything that's come off the page for you if I look I would say that there's nothing super obvious other than that extra tick I guess he's you know kind of dialed down the curveball usage over time but you know in terms of his pitch mix

30:34it's pretty finicky some games he uses the cutter a fair amount some games he doesn't the sinker he'll sometimes not use it all and then he's at 19% of the time in Sacramento so you know that might be a scouting report thing because the other time he used the second the second most was against the athletics as well right but you know what do you what do you see when you when you look at his his mix over there's okay there are two parts of Zebi I mean two two games back to back that are just so vastly different it's funny first one was the seven innings seven K game one earned against the athletics in Sacramento and he won a gallows pole that night you guys aren't familiar with the gallows pole same if a Joey Gallo who would with all the time and it is the award that goes to the pitcher who earned the most whiffs on a given night and actually when we interviewed Pablo Paz in 2020 he surprised me and Alex fast when he asked us a question at the end which is what do I need to do to win a gallows pole I could not believe that he knew that if I

31:38like well that's our thing I think oh my gosh so when Pablo won it we actually sent him a trophy of like you won the gallows pole on this day etc and so I sent him a text as I can you tell Zebi like he won the gallows pole and he was ecstatic I was like yeah because you had the best slider you've ever had in that game it was insanely good 30% swing strike rate he threw it 31% of the time it was just the dominant offering in that game it 10 whiffs on 33 thrown in that right so I'm thinking okay one of three games this year by the way that he had positive stuff plus on both his slider and curve and same game and that was one of them there yeah all right and then next game I'm thinking dude you you figured out that slider amazing one whiff on 14 thrown oh no okay that is the most recent one but that's a point one innings so something went right this game was the best left handed command he's ever had and I actually think that left handed command at

32:40least in my view as far as pitch separation and executing some game plan because normally what I see against left handers for Zebi Matthews is a smattering of pitches around the zone and a lot of it in that nitro zone to left ease that is down and inside and that quadrant and this was much more avoidant of that it was change ups down along the edges it was cutters on the upper half or inside it was for seamer staying on that upper half the slider was outside back door like it was actually someone living around the edges and what do you know what does he do well he has 25 balls employee and 20 them go for outs I mean he was efficient and he took advantage of the 53% swing rate of the white socks and just ran with that right and I go whoa whoa hold on now okay slider is not there anymore but how did you do this right and maybe there's a mental change here because it seemed like before that sebi Matthews was just all right middle glove in the middle just like

33:40throw it in the zone and everyone's happy but this actually looked like he was trying to be cute in a good way I hate when when pitcher as sorry when coaches would tell you stop being cute stop nibbling like no always nibble right like I don't know unless you're like Otani you're not really going to throw it down the middle right like Chapin was like oh I could be better in my old age if I throw to one side of the plate or the other I mean it's a skill you need to learn at some point so especially if like in on my high school like I've walked a guy or two like stop nibbling like no I need to fix it I can't just need to figure out how to throw the cool yeah I got to make the adjustments you know like okay you gotta keep nibbling and he's trying to nibble is what I think now which is good for sebi it's that it's honestly the biggest knock I've had against him is that he was too free inside the zone and guys we get too comfortable in these at bats and get these good pitches and hit them around and it's why he has a near nine hip or nine this year and a 1.5 homerprinine so I hope this is something I think it's a hard sell if this is what I see in September

34:49for me to say like I want sebi mouthe's next year because I'm a big believer that unless you show me an entire season for the most part of the heavy majority being a command guy you were not a command guy you are a rhythm guy and there is no harsher wall of command and rhythm than the off season so it's it's why like all the Vargas rules we talk about all the you know Seth Lugo had an amazing season for x-mount times and then it's just like you hit the wall and it's just nope okay we're good on it's it's something that I wouldn't want to buy into his ebby but I would love to see it for September and if the ciders getting more whiffs again they'll be cool too I'm not yet sold for 2027 that's how I'll put it yeah just to to your point the location plus on the slider was the best the of his career on yeah there you go athletics yes and there's no there was no real change in Velo spin size of drop or anything from one start to next against the athletics

35:53against the white socks on the ciders so you know what strikes me is that right now what he's doing is he's getting to the park he's got his he's got his scouting report and so there's certain things he's trying to do against those teams that might be why he threw the sinker most against the athletics both times but on the other hand just generally he's now a six pitch guy and there's something to like oh his location plus on his slider was the best it was of his career of his career against the athletics the next game it was not good but the location plus on his curve was the best of his career in the way against the white socks and it's not like the curve is a thing that he throws a huge amount but it does remind you that like hey this guy has six pitches he can come to the park and if one's not working he's got another that can fit and work with for him and it also reminds you that he's 26 years old and next year he may come with a kick change or a

36:53you know a power slider inside of the cutter you know there they're each of these can change a little bit going forward so you know I like that I like that he has this mix I like that he's established himself as a major leagueer and I think that I will probably have some shares of him next year because I'll say that this is a guy who has a rotation spot it'd be kind of like maybe a drafting hole situation where I'm like he has a rotation spot I will want to start him at different times in the year but is he gonna float to the top of like say the top 50 or 60 where I'm like this is a guy I want to start every time I don't see that quite yet I see a potential Toby if you're telling me that his asset is a pitch mix is like a wide band that is not the kind of guy I want we'll just look at you just mentioned Lugo like you know yeah the the year thing on that so yeah I can't necessarily put a stamp of approval on him but you know he strikes me a little bit

37:54like uh ret louder no well ret louder is you know has you know five four five pitch pitches he has more now than he did before in fact I don't think that the season long numbers capture how many pitches ret louder has right now I'm just excited to think of ret louder as like he has a good slider and change up they're like okay I know what I do against Radees I go sinkers inside and I have maybe some four seamers and then the slider is gonna do things and then I got lefties and I'll figure that out with a four seamer and something else and then I'll throw change ups and that's just how I feel about him so he's always like I don't know I think he doesn't get enough love of just hey he'll go like six settings and run or two at times and yeah I I know it sounds hilarious I'm gonna say these words but I feel like a need a new term for this which is just the guy has a long leash thus he will have some relevance sometimes right like your Chris Bassett's gonna have like a game of a throwing 100 pitches and that will be good sometimes it does not mean that I want to roster him you know it's

39:00like a 15 team Toby I guess but even then like having a long leash is still not always rosterable so I got I'll think I'll think about that one yeah I just wanted to point out you know he's up in Velo and he's thrown a new curve ball a couple times and this is what Brett louder he's talking about yeah yeah I'm interested in a new curve ball yeah and I'm trying to find his last show me is this show me curve where it's like I think about the button of the toys as try me on it it's like a show me it might be I mean I'm not trying to say he's good I'm trying to say is like pitchers like this can be good for short periods of time in in his last start I mean he threw six curveballs he also threw a slider that looked a lot like a curveball so maybe that's seven curveballs you know compared to his season long values in terms of what he's throwing you know everything benefit a little bit from the extra the extra and the change at time you know

40:06flashes plus I would say right that's I mean not to me is like the it's like cool you have a good change of either slider it's not you know Lee either way but it's like this is serviceable you know it allows him to go somewhat deep into games here I'm laughing because there is this weird weird breaking ball that is never not quite the curve but it's not quite the slider he just is living in its own little island from that game that 84.7 yeah oh two he threw it and it I wasn't even near the zone anywhere those are the weird ones where it's just like no one knows what it was because it was just such a waste he was like throwing a slider too hard or something it slipped out or or the curve or I don't know I but oh I have a I have a new pitch alert for you oh really yes go to Walbert Uranus page oh Urania has one on 831 okay oh Uranus doesn't get enough love by the way guys I really feel like he doesn't it's pretty cool like it's not a deal oh wait what's up on one

41:13unclassified I see no it's not oh my gosh what is that what is that it's not a small per hour not it's calling it a sweeper but it's not a sweeper that's a cutter yes it's a cutter but what gamer you looking at 825 oh no I just see on his entire year it's against Catalonia so it must be something thrown against I think it's 825 let me find it I what on Cleveland Cleveland was 825 yeah no he's throwing some sort of we're trying to call it maybe a collider or a lighter well you know not the other word oh oh a citer how about a citer a citer oh man okay so I do see I do see this it's like a 92.5 sweeper they threw it a Christian baskets yeah that is what you're

42:17talking about and he's got three or four of them forget yeah right maybe the huge we're talking about oh interesting and this was against the the Guardians on the 25th which by the way it was like one of the worst starts that Arrhen has had but it's not because of these pitches no that wasn't even no wait hold on that wouldn't be then that would be against the asteris yes asteris I think that's what I noticed it 18 against the asterisks that is interesting I don't think it it suddenly hasn't appeared since or at least didn't appear in the the recent one the I got I can't just ignore this weird one it's it was on um I know you guys we're just such pitching errors that we're like looking at look at this one pitch that happened at yeah the teeth at Arizona for Walbur, D'Arania but he has this 86.3 mile per hour pitch that they're calling a sweeper but it had 18 inches of vert you know hmm yeah I think he's trying to throw

43:17out of the zone up like middle up O2 and actually OO when it was fouled off I have no idea what this thing was yeah I think he's trying to throw a I think he's trying to throw a a cutter and I think it I think it would be good for him because you know you see that sweeper out there and you see the the change is obviously an asset for him but just anything that kind of sits in the middle also he has absolutely terrible command of a sweeper like he cannot that's that's you know when you think of Walbur, D'Arania having bad command it's mostly the sweeper like he cannot put the sweeper in the zone but it's such a good pitch if he could if he could right so you know what would you can do even if you can't like he I guess there's in some way has command of a sweeper it's just it's always going to be low and outside you know right that's the place he can put it so if you could put a cutter that looks anything like that sweeper in the middle of the zone then they'll take it

44:19for a while because they'll think oh this is a breaking ball right this is going that way this is the sweeper I can take it and then they'll take some called strikes and then if you get them swinging at that cutter then you can throw more sweepers and they'll swing at something that's outside the zone so I you know people call it tunneling or whatever but you know there's it's a pairing here of pitches where I could see the cutter being a pathway forward for him much like Jose Soriano had the foreseam change up you know that kind of that pushed him forward a little bit I still see some similar flaws to Jose Soriano which is oh yeah I'm a little bit worried about you know health and it's a lot of velocity and it's not great command I mean this is I'll say it over and over if you just take out his April which is so clearly the extreme of Soriano's career like he's the same guy you know it's it's I will not draft a guy like that and he's the perfect example of how the

45:21season nuance should not be lost in the offseason yeah that's that's what I was talking about a little bit like to shape of a season when you just when someone starts out really hot and just maintains throughout the season you forget you know it was like a one ERA for a month and like a 430 for the rest of it and you know one of the things that I think about a ton and I reference it is generally speaking for a season for every pitcher you're gonna have a third of the starts of they are their best self they're the starts with their knots you know they're bad and really there's this one third at the middle that are to go either way in a lot of those are what shape the end ERAs for guys right so a lot of times I think one of the most frustrating parts of the offseason is like the projection ERA battles where it's like some guys project for 110 and someone else is for like a 380 and I'm like that's the same pitcher because it's really just like these two starts that go either way in a season that change that right I think we have like a 60 point ERA boost for a pitcher the

46:23other day you know it's just it's what happened that was Jacob DeGrom that's what I'm thinking of there right just like there it is okay there's a 60 point boost because he allows nine and runs all the sign and three endings and then was he the next one seven endings a one run and destroys it and we can just kind of throw that thing out and I think of them Parker Messick who just has avoided any bad it's just like a whole season of just being not in ace but just consistent never being terrible right in the games that he actually put what do I get to see him eight Gavin Williams who still has a 380 ERA even though he had a stress on point where he had like 60 strikeouts to like five walks right well then all because like two games ago he gets so burned and I watched every single hit allowed in that it's just like okay like sure there is a bad front hit curve that just got demolished and it's just like all right well they punished you for whatever reason you know this is a whole other can of worms about there are certain guys that when they throw mistakes they

47:25get punished more than others right it's it's almost like like it their stuff forces batters to be more in the flow so that when the bad pitch comes they are able to take advantage of it while they are like boring pictures who like people just go to the game of the park like oh cool there's a sink over the play oh it's got enough drop oh I guess I'm rolling a second base you know like yeah I wonder if it's like a Velo differential thing almost because you know Williams is pretty hard on most things right so it's like I need to gear up I need to like you know have that focus and everything and like if it's a mistake curve I'm come on it you know because I have to have that extra level of intensity not gonna have to Vince be to take as you just throw soft though I don't know I know it's just it's one of those things maybe it's come harder in harder out I don't know that's these are hard enough my view but there is something about that that just you know it's a Nick theory guys I they just gets I guess sleep about it you know how about a how about a lefty

48:27who's on the throwing harder list well hold on yeah I'm gonna have to save that when you know because before you tell us we gotta take a quick break you know it's got someone on the throwing harder list yes and he's on the shape of a season list which is for the season he has a 457 ERA and you know seems fairly boring in terms of shape of your season like cover art your heart I mean for the season he has a league average dragout minus walk rate and a below league average with rate and a a 457 ERA and a league average Sierra and you so you'd say all right this dude is league average but and I'm playing with endpoints here of course because I'm taking away that's all we can never do anyway the two worst starts of his year but since late July Robert Gasser has

49:28he's faster and ERA almost a full run lower than that number he has in recent times of the last three starts pushed his Velo closer to league average he's 93 7 and 93 9 in the last two games Gasser is and that's really good velocity for him he's also since he's coming off injury there's a there's a chance that this is just him getting right in terms of stuff stuff is all going in the right direction as well stuff really loves his slider and his two fastballs the four semen sinker the cutter is just good enough he is a brewer so he has to have one and I don't know it's it looks like I saw him early on and said this guy does not have command and I forgot that command is not a sticky stuff and since those first two starts where he had a 76 and 74 location plus yeah and look terrible he's basically had league average commands and so I don't

50:32think he's great in command I don't think he's great in stuff but he is a brewer with three fastballs that's got you know has some more gas recently I don't know what do you is there anything I'm missing and I like to whenever I can just like set hard rules that I need some x you know they're always exceptions it's one of my mantras or whatever but one of my rules is if you are a south paw who doesn't have absurd velocity who doesn't have a legitimate change up or a dominant back foot slider you are not going to be someone I want and I mean I guess fine the last one would be like impeccable cutter for a simmer command I guess Zach Thornton is doing that he does back foot the sweeper pretty well I don't know if I buy that as like I'm thinking of like a redeemer's slider oh that's more of a power job right like I just say just completely is you can live there what Robbie Ray used to have right I rarely see sweepers act in this way to actually be like a consistent

51:39but he does do that and that thing that I wanted Urania to do which is he throws the cutter he actually throws the cutter low and in to remember about this different like heartbeat two years ago or whatever I write that is that is very interesting with gas or I think the best asset he has is the cutter and hopefully he can consistently get inside a right ease but without that change up and you know 93.7 from left side turns in 94.7 he has about 70 of extension so there is some hope there it is it's a good fast but the force aim is good because it's his league average movement from an arm angle at 13 degrees yeah absolutely so he's not getting whiffs quite yet like a ton of them but he could I mean I see where you're getting at here I I don't know he seems like one of the I know this is old vibes he seems like one of those who are just like perennially like oh maybe maybe maybe maybe it seems kind like a Kyle Harrison with with like maybe better secondary pitches you know

52:42oh man we'll come here for Seymour way more dominant bang gasses I mean not not now not now because Kyle Harrison's losing Velo yeah he's at 93.5 and like dude you can't for some people you lost yeah oh gosh yeah I don't I think I mean I need to see something else from gasser like I need to see him really execute this game plan constantly if he's not going to have the change of to really go down in a way right so that means like against Radees and it has to be the high force emery needs to do the seven the Lasardo seven of like force emers up and in or force emers along the inside edge to right handers and then the sweeper underneath that's the cutter going inside edge right that's what I need to say somebody who's asking me like you know who's the new hype seven and oh gosh I just don't think it happens every year oh it doesn't because I've looked at why do you think the hype seven was a term he came up last year right like otherwise I would have been saying it for a while yeah I mean we always have some they're like

53:44the interesting ones you know like you know we I agree with most of our analysis as much as I'd like Urania there are flaws there you know gassars ebby like these guys they're interesting young pictures but you know none of them really rise to the top as like somebody I would include in a hype list next year the the reason that the hype seven was so interesting was the projections the stuff the arsenal there was so much about those guys that you could be like yeah they could pitch like an ace and if I buy them as a number two then I'm then I'm then I'm doing great you know right like you wouldn't say that of any of the guys that we've talked about today so okay first and foremost I think this is a fun topic for next week if you guys want it which is who what is the next what who is the next yeah like what every year so I was like who is the next blank and I'm trying to figure out who you guys care about you know who is it cake cake and

54:45but that's see that's not fair because it's like I would not have I certainly was like do not draft cake of Ali I don't think cake of Ali was rostrible no I'm saying for next year and if there's a next year you wouldn't put him in your hype seven next year oh I see that one actually started making a list with it and I would add them to it but I guess I'm getting Williams could be like that but you know both of those guys will have had more major league time than the guys that we had right right I would say first and foremost the first two that come to mind are Andrew painter and Quinn Matthews okay because what happened also you got remember we didn't know about Trey his savage yet like this time last year like he guys first start in like a week that's true so there's still time there's still time exactly I feel like captain Picard you know there's still time so so the Andrew painter and Quinn Matthews are on that list I would say if we get a peak at river Ryan he might be on that list Troy Melton also speaking of the Tigers he has not gone enough if job

55:50if job like you know fine job and above a channel are kind of in there of like are they kind of adjustment and have like a great September then we're like oh yeah that was the adjustment they did it they did the thing absolutely I then there's going to be this other tier which I think is a more interesting one of the sophomores from the hype seven who are also what you read read on now as a right so then have like paying totally in there you have Parker Messick in there you have Logan Henderson you have Kyle Harrison right eerie Paris what do we do doing with that those are the interesting ones you have also brass brass and ash craft your boy who I got to say you know what the heck buddy ashden ashden brass craft I'm gonna call that what's up with your slider and your curve ball you can't find whiffs anymore but you're going deep into games and you're just not throwing them much but I think they got to shut them down then I mean that's got to be it right I don't know he's never pitched like like that and I would be I'm going to be a little bit nervous about him

56:54next year because he's the most he's ever pitched in a season today is 73 innings and he's got 160 this year like I'm and he has he has multiple surgeries in this history like it's funny when you get known for somebody and then you're like oh this what I do I didn't want I said don't draft cool riggins after the yeah yeah or like the one after the breakout yeah I don't feel like two years I was like I don't want to either way there is another very obvious name for the hype 7 I'll give you a hint it was someone that everybody was like asking you about as a project pitcher who pitched in double a most of the season till like two weeks ago and was known as like oh yeah he's the one that we're all excited about my gosh the 40% strike at rate in double a cade Anderson there you go I figured I need to give you a stat and we might have been the biggest wet blankets in the industry on I mean he's got to do more but I like the it's a good danger it's a good right the command was much better than I expected in the first game

57:55yeah the second game though the breaking balls though are not very good and the low is only mediocre and the fastball shape is is just so do you see it as two breaking balls are one because this is the knowing part this is the thing that drives me up the wall is after the first game I was like wait guys it's not one breaking pulse to just two locations yeah there's two there's two breaking right but I was told there's one oh no that seems pretty distinctly different I mean that they're along the same right and there but there's like one that's like a slider one that's a curve and and there's that's a huge deal in my view you know what it is it's probably they might be the same pitch once 89 and once 82 but that that makes them two different pitches I mean that's seven miles an hour difference and one is his show me in the zone and one is his back foot slider yes and that's how he's using it too that's how when I watched him I was like the curve is the one he's throwing to the back foot the sliders one he's trying to throw for strikes oh I got the reverse back foot is 89 oh really strike is 82 am I wrong I could easily be misremembering

59:03been doing that a lot but regardless he's on the line you might be right there's more there's more curve balls in the zone he's a part of that there was one breaking ball that was more back foot there was more icy okay the change up was good but you know people look at IVB inside this great IVB you know for but it's a 52 degree arm angle so people yeah I wasn't thinking it was yeah right but I mean okay so the thing about Kade though is he just needs to locate honestly like he has enough here this is a change of down a way that's great he has a four seamer upstairs he's got the two breaking balls back foot hopefully for strikeouts and look it's easy being a south ball just throw the breakers down a way get got it KC a by and they all can do it uh it's oh yeah he could do kind of like the Noah Cameron thing where it's curve balls and change ups to the outside part of the plate and one goes in one goes out oh that's a good point yeah I didn't think about it like that and it's yeah it's just better you know once they better know a Cameron he needs a cutter then I guess

1:00:05but uh sure why not Kade you'll get one eventually the force of command is pretty good it's all top rail it's like right it wasn't in that second start which is the only thing that like I have here but uh at least it was it just a little shake here the second time but like that's fine so I yeah he's but doesn't read doesn't read like a 40% strikeout rate in the minor leagues that's well right i'm over and like and that's the thing that that that's what I've like this is a one of the rules if he is command focused with a change up that is his best offering it's gonna over perform in the minors we know yeah this is something I talked about a lot of Simon Sarmunara with dotted for people was basically how like like how can K minus BB be have so much signal in it the major leagues and have so little in the minor leagues for hitters and pitchers yeah and you know we're very tempted to say because K minus BB works so well among major league pitchers we're gonna use them you know when we evaluate minor league pitchers and it's sorry it just doesn't work the

1:01:06strike zones are inconsistent the umpires are worse the catchers are worse the hitters are worse the hitters you know so being able to command like let's say you could command a slider your right you could command a slider that kind of person would over perform in the minors too because you get to the major leagues like sure you can command a slider but I can hit it you know like it's not it's not the best slider in the world and you know right you can get a weightlash more not too much you're just as good as every other pitcher you can command a slider you know yeah I also keep in mind that hitters are having a different mentality they're trying they're gonna take more risks because yeah it's they're trying to prove themselves you know they're trying to hit a fastball for a home run and stuff well they're they're major leagueers who are getting paid for power and they're used for for homeers and they've demonstrated that ability so they're they're hunting you like there's a little bit more I would say like probably most prospects are surviving and just you know and so and fighting versus hunting yeah which is why when it comes to prospects least for me the number one thing I

1:02:09care about is your success via a forceymer there is bar nine no other skill I care about more is just do you throw more forceymer than any other pitch and is it a you know elite forceymer if you have that's definitely good for for sealing I mean there'll be other there are other pitch pitchers that can become good pitchers in the major leagues but you're right like the very best pitchers in the major leagues if you want well a top 15 pitcher well I can't even have great forceymer's like it's more about like the believable success of the minors that one translates that to me yeah right because in the minors like what's the old rule that you're if you can't hit a fastball you do not belong in the majors you know belong playing professional baseball and so all those guys like they have that is true too for the pitcher right right yeah so if they if they're still having the success against that kind of talent then that you know that signifies

1:03:12something more significantly than the others but there are you know there are a couple others I do want to mention really quick before we close this of guys who are I think we should port this over dude I think with this I think next week next week is going to be who are who are the best seven young pitchers for next year oh man next year's hype seven yeah we'll do the hype seven we'll do the the freshman and the sophomores right like there we go the sophomores in the juniors whatever you want to say with that but yeah we'll go over guys like Troy Melton peat and totally Sean Burke these breakout pitchers this year they were like okay who were the ones we're betting on who were not and before next time I just want to say out there to everybody I'm so sorry if you have Kalayerson rts that was brutal guys that was just that was just the Velo is not you know I I I I've shared this on rights and barrels but when his year when his pitching velocity is under 94 he has a 470 R.A. when it's over 94 he has like a 3-3 everything goes through the four

1:04:14simmer because it's his best pitches it's only pitch that's the only that's the only counterargument I have for you is like there there are pitchers like Kyle Harrison where you know it is just the fastball right well I mean the curveball if it's the curveball would change it or not there at all it's also bad but but I think that's I think when he gets back into a corner it's the fastball so when it's 94 plus you know he's like I can get back to the corner and still do what I want to do you know when it's night three this it's not good I have a really fun idea which is really dumb that we're going to do a a competition of who would you rather a Dwater Rodriguez or next year next year like yeah or the hot stuff you know it's like Whitney always say the hot stuff I'm like no because maybe I want to get Tyler Malini I don't know maybe the one who made me know I knew what I'm going to get and maybe it's a good first or second or maybe we just create a third class for next week or or do a different show which is you know Toby's we we might actually draft next year yeah

1:05:19right the seniors yeah well are you guys guys just going to have to stay tuned for that one huge thank you to Eno Serris for for coming by and such short notice thanks again you know and what can people expect from you this week I'm going to do something about command there's this interesting new open command out there that is done with computer vision and tracking the glove and so I want to look at that versus you know location plus see what there is to learn there and you know look at some of these pictures that we've been talking about for the for the stretch so just a little a picture check-in you know that's a long term project I get to someday yeah okay it's just harder would you you're potting every day you know oh my god was the last time you wrote something that wasn't the right the roundup and I have retired a lot of that the last time there was a lockout you might not remember this it was 22 of course and

1:06:20when there was still lockout on March 1st I said you know what I'm going to live stream me writing a going deep piece until the lockout ends and I got it down to an hour and what happened in the morning is that I would not even know the picture the entire discord community would vote on who they wanted me to write a going deep piece on and I would just showcase the entire process to everyone and just write it thankfully the lockout ended in 10 days yeah right don't do this time might be might be doing that for a lot of time but yeah I have I don't think I've really written a a a proper piece in a while because I am writing so many so much product documentation and there's they're like turning up big ideas and I know I can't stop on stop so you know you guys know me I will have more to tell you in the future about all of it just had an unbelievably

1:07:23exciting meeting yesterday you probably won't know about for months everyone but so excited about that and yeah I'm looking forward to talking about these guys next week with you but you know that is it so my name is like Pollock that is Ena Saras and we'll talk about the craft of pitching again next week I would oh I like that the open hands