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He's earned decades of Wall Street success, a lifelong student of the market
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who learned to navigate the world of finance with unshaking confidence,
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an underdog who achieved the American dream. Now the Fox Business Host is sharing all his
1:16
investing wisdom with you on Charles Payne's unstoppable prosperity podcast.
1:22
All right, my next guest says, watch the dollar. That's where it all begins, right?
1:26
And remember, the consensus at the beginning of the year was for a week dollar,
1:29
and a lot of trades revolved around that. So what happens if it's not weak? Well,
1:33
let's bring in BNY, the wealth ahead of investment strategy, also equity,
1:37
elitial of being. So we've got the dollar and, you know, it was working according to script,
1:42
but now it's kind of changing. This is about the highest level since May of last year,
1:47
so this is a real pivotal point for it. So we do think it's a pivotal point,
1:51
and what pivoted the dollar is the war in Iran. So what happened last year at the beginning
1:56
of 2025, so at the beginning of strength of the dollar, and then with the tariffs,
2:02
you saw the dollar weakening and rest of world markets outperform. So all the international
2:07
markets outperformed the US market, and that really stuck through the end of the year.
2:12
And that was the consensus trade going into 2026 because the dollar was expected to weaken further,
2:18
which it did, as you can see, in the beginning of 2026. Now we have the war in Iran.
2:24
We have a flight to safety. The dollar is up 4 percent in the last two weeks,
2:30
and all those trades where the international was outperforming the US in emerging markets
2:35
was outperforming the US had become undone. Yeah, we're going to show like a small versus large,
2:40
that's also been flipped on its head. We're going to bring that up here. So again, you know,
2:44
you got this, I use the Russell versus the S&P done extremely well, but now all of a sudden it's
2:49
faltering a little bit. We'll also do the rest of the world versus the S&P. I use VEU. There's a
2:55
lot of things you can use, but it's going to be a very similar chart. The rest of the world versus
2:59
the spiders, and this goes back to last year, right? Right out the gate. That's right.
3:03
The rest of the world outperformed America by the S&P by a huge margin, and they picked it up
3:08
right here again, right out the gate. Bam. Bam. It's come down a little bit. Echo of last year.
3:12
Yeah. So at what point does this change, you know, like, because you've got to be,
3:17
you know, people ride the winners. This is a winning trade. At what point do you start to
3:21
reconsider it? Like, is the dollar gets to 98? 100? Like, where does the dollar have to get?
3:26
Okay. So this is really about the one I ran here. Okay. Because ultimately, the US is less
3:32
vulnerable to an oil shock and the inflation shock that comes from higher oil prices
3:37
than the rest of the world is. And as a result, there's been a flight to safety to the dollar,
3:41
but it also means US corporates can probably handle higher oil prices more than international
3:47
corporates are. And that's what you're seeing. I think some of that trade gets reversed. I
3:52
get very uncomfortable when everybody believes the same thing, the weaker dollar, international
3:57
markets. I think it's going to even out here. And I think this is what's going to happen.
4:01
And the longer the war goes on, the more likely tech is going to outperform. The S&P is going
4:06
to outperform. The S&P will also be better than the Russell because small cap is dependent on
4:12
the expectations for rate cuts. And rate cuts are getting priced out of the market. Yeah.
4:17
Yeah. Maybe second half of year. Some are saying that at all.
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4:50
You like the broad tailwinds, fiscal policy, monetary policy. You just talked about earnings.
4:54
I want to bring up the next table because we only got a minute to go and talk a little bit more
4:58
about the tech. This is today's session. But we're seeing this the last few days. And what
5:04
was intriguing today is that all parts of tech, semi's hardware and software. And this is the
5:09
trait you're saying. It might be the one that's fools everyone. This might be the one that comes
5:14
back really strong. That's right. Well, look, software is now now underperformed semi's by 70 percent
5:21
in the last several months. That is unheard of. The sector is tempting you to take a risk.
5:27
Right. Because it is so underpriced. As I said, I think tech works here with the multiple
5:33
came down from the mid 30s to the low 20s. Tech is now trading at the multiple of the S&P,
5:38
also unheard of. I think it's time where you step back into tech here. Because it's already been
5:43
repriced. Right. You know, in the end, you want to go where the repricing has happened. We were
5:48
worried about profit and tech. And here we are. Yeah, we're repriced. It's tempting to go back.
5:53
And you have to love the risk reward of these levels. Yes.
5:55
Alicia, thank you so much. Great to see you. You know, always great to see you.
6:00
You've been listening to the Charles Payne's unstoppable prosperity podcast.
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