CHGO Cubs Related: How HIGH Is The Cubs Ceiling After The Edward Cabrera Trade?

This is the CHGO Cubs related podcast driven by Toyota. Let's go places. My name is Corey. I am joined as always by Brendan

We are coming to you. It is Thursday. It is January 8th. We haven't seen you all in a while.

It's been a long time. Yeah, holidays. So good to see everybody. And so nice of the Cubs front off this

Brendan to let us take two weeks off of talking about Alex Bregman and what are the Cubs going to do?

Are they going to do anything yada yada and give us a big splash to talk about? Big splash. I have been

basically scrolling my phone on Twitter on social for the last 48 hours. The Cabrera trade some of the

Bregman bobe jet rumors. I feel alive, Corey. I feel a sense of energy. I'm looking at our starting

rotation depth. I got 11 names on fan graphs. I'm looking at our bullpen that looks to be more or

less complete. I'm seeing 35 million below that luxury tax. I'm seeing 2027 books that are clean.

I'm feeling optimistic dangerously optimistic. It's nice and it's nice on social even in our live

YouTube chat. Welcome for those of you hopping in. We appreciate your comments, participation. Glad to

have you here. It's nice that the conversation has shifted to and we'll talk about this. But the

conversation is shifted to should the Cubs sign Bregman or the shed or Cody Belinger.

A love could they even reunite with Kyle Tucker with the remaining money?

I'm saying the conversation is shifted to that from are they going to do anything? What are they

doing? You know what I mean? Are they only is Hobie Milner? Are big signing all off? Well not

an hour's your tone about 72 hours ago for being frank. Just saying our private text conversations

are not to be air. All right on this episode laying things out for you. We are going to break down

Edward Cabrera the Cubs new starting picture that they acquire from the Miami Marlins for

Owen Casey, Christian Hernandez and another prospect that I am blanking on my apologies.

But we will break down Edward Cabrera what the Cubs got, what they have in the hand and then take a

look with Dr. Brendan Miller here in the pitch lab. What might they do to take him to that next

level? Because certainly getting him to that next level with the raw stuff that he has is a huge

part of the front office is calculus in taking this swing trading your number one prospect. So we

will talk about the trade and we will talk about Cabrera where the Cubs rotation sits, how we feel

given the stated offseason goals going in we'll talk about all that. In addition the Cubs traded

for a cost effective starting picture. He settles in arbitration actually today Chicago Cubs

Edward Cabrera settles in arbitration probably believe a little north of four million dollars.

So the Cubs have some room to spend. Will they do it? And let's take a look where the offseason

would rank right now and how do jet and company push it to that call it a grade that that

everyone's happy. This was a great effort. Let's go win the division and maybe a pen enter

a world series. Are we thinking crazy? Look at us. Look at us too Eddie. It's thinking good

good thoughts. We'll talk about it all. But let's start Brendan. Initial reaction you and I

of course texting about this also want to give a major shout out to friend of the show someone you

and I have interviewed on on this network when when we were previously you know pre BC BC before

CHGO right. Michael ceramic excellent work breaking this story being the first to say it was

close getting all the national attention. We love Michael on this show. So you know congrats

kudos to him on a big moment for him and bleach your nation. Initial reaction you and I are

texting in the morning. We're seeing this start to last week it was maybe the Yankees are going to

going to take Cabrera and they're going to take that big swing. It ends up being the cubs your

initial reaction as you're reading this come across the wire. The initial reaction is one of

just excitement. How can you not be excited about a starting picture with his potential. It's also

excitement because of what the cost was and that will be one of the tones we strike. Cabrera is

not a finished product. So what the cubs are seeing with them is the room to grow and that cost

we're talking about came down from last year's trade deadline when they were negotiating. For

instance we heard maybe that match shot and oh in case he was asking for price for Cabrera.

Maybe he was Jefferson Roas. Perhaps a top five comes prospect by many rankings. He was not

included. The one big quote unquote fish if you will that Miami lands is Owen Casey. So when I

hear that price and I see how the cubs payroll shaping out with the previous bullpen additions

my mind starts to work in a way of filling out the entire roster now with money at the

positional side. So the excitement was in Cabrera. The potential the excitement is Cabrera the

cost and prospect capital as well as what that might mean for spending to fill out the rest of the

roster with a bet including Breggman or Boba Shet or a UNEOS wars and so on. Yeah my my initial

reaction. We Cabrera guy we've talked about clearly this front office has had their eye on him.

This is not the first you know portion. We heard it at the trade deadline start of the offseason

so there's clearly been some interest there and it was really just excitement that they were

taken the swing. I don't want to reduce it down to doing something but you know we've it's been

a slow offseason so many guys still out there in the free agent market. Guys that maybe the cubs

had interest in or were connected to going elsewhere and it was just it's a big swing. I mean

you're trading your number one prospect you're you're putting some you're you're really putting

some chips on Cabrera here and I think that's exciting as a fan to see the front office be aggressive.

This is two off seasons in a row now you can get into whether it would be nice if they you know

gave them a little more money so they didn't consistently have to trade some of their best prospects

to get these resources that's a separate conversation but two off seasons in a row man like

Jed Hoyer is not shy for his risk of verse as mainly Carter but I think the cubs front office in

general is that is a perception. I want to talk about being these are two like massive decisions

to make in giving up a guy in this case like Owen Casey last year like Cam Smith like these are

these are big swings they're taken and I think in in just that regard it's exciting the potential

of Edward Cabrera and with this pitching infrastructure has certainly got me excited for the

potential that this rotation has especially as it's concerned for their ultimate ceiling if they

can get there. The gamble the cubs are taking is Cabrera's fastball and workability coachability

that will need to be improved versus Owen Casey's own contact problems and his power potential.

That's the gamble being taken by both sides and you can see the value from each organization

why they would want to take those gambles. This is not to say though Cory to your point like

oh Cabrera is this booming obvious ace he was valuable last year 130 plus Indians of sub four

ear a ball right does have a little bit of an injury history had two elbow injuries last year

elbow inflammation at the trade deadline did not go on the aisle at that time he did go on the

aisle for a separate elbow injury towards the back end of the season they were on September did

come back did finishes season off with one start so this is not without risk in the cubs projecting

innings but when you contextualize with what they gave up in just one top prospect with some

of the riskiness that he presents it does inspire confidence and greater flexibility for not just

adding the positional side but now you still have some of your farm guys to make more moves or grow

if you need those guys to provide value it's a really multi-faceted conversation why he's

exciting but also too we can talk about what it actually means with some nuance in the risk profile

that he projects yeah and I like Randy Lewis in our YouTube chat says let's be honest it was you

Darvish for Cabrera it just took five years by the way it was six years not even five years or six

yes Casey did play at Rigglyfield you know so hat did get on a major league field but it is funny

the significant contribution from that you Darvish trade will ultimately be what Cabrera does

like this year so sometimes you just got to be patient oh this time lies not our timeline

that's one that's one word for it but yeah look like to be clear when we talked about

and we'll do you know an in-depth breakdown Brennan will talk about his pitches the change up

the breaking ball the ineffective fastball all that stuff you're still on my lead with the

showing a little bit in a little bit but still talking about you know sort of initial reaction like

we talked early in the offseason about you know adding reliability I think top of the rotation

potential but also do and cease types yes reliability durability and of course with pitchers it's not

easy to count on but that was something of course famously big issue for the Cubs at the end of

2025 guys running at a gas guys dealing with injuries and not feeling like you had that quality

depth to the point that we're having conversations of this Colin Ray starting a do-or-die game

in the playoffs no disrespect to Colin Ray who's great and it'll be part of this conversation as well

they opt for a different way of going about it Shoda accepts the qualifying offer that certainly

affects this but they miss on a my who they were very connected to now how how much they

were in on that it's hard to know but it did seem like they were quite interested there made

an offer but he ultimately I wouldn't classify that as a miss and what you know think

in that I think they were interested and probably had an offer on the table but he chooses

another destination yeah for a price tag that was 30% of what was projected three months ago

sixty million dollars but so looking through a lot of these options when you look at a guy like

Dylan Seas has his own concerns has his own can he reach that big time ceiling we've seen before

again inconsistencies but makes 30 starts gonna give you you know 180 plus innings that reliability

that given how last season ended maybe you would have deferred to that front office whether it was

their initial plan to go for Cabrera or not where we've landed assuming they are done in the

rotation they have a lot of options if they're not done they'd have to ship some guys out come on

over forever but they have opted for that ceiling and going for younger costs you know guys that

they're gonna have under contract being the the kind of bulk of their future of this rotation

and opting for that ceiling and trusting that they're pitching infrastructure can take these guys

to that next level and ultimately you reach a point where later in the year probably you know

memorial day or later Justin seal is out there doing his thing Cade Horton's continuing a strong

2025 where he had an incredible second half and you're unlocking Edward Cabrera to the point that

the top three in your rotation is this just massive high ceiling group that is the high ceiling

and yeah any you know and that's not even talking about you know getting Matthew Boyd back to the

point where he was one of the better pitchers in baseball for most of the 2025 season and we'll

get into the depth but again different paths and I this this rotation is is going to carry risk

but I think Brendan what they're banking on and leaning on is they're going to have the depth now

to be prepared for that risk when you go through all of the potential names right Matthew Boyd

Shoda E. Menaga, Edward Cabrera, Cade Horton, James and Tyone, Ben Brown, Javier Saad, potential

wicks, just in steel when he comes back like and I could certainly be forgetting people right but

those those are all quality options especially if you're looking at them as fifth guys in your

rotation or if somebody gets hurt so they are going to have this depth and they're going to opt for

hey we have some guys that have some risks maybe they run out of gas maybe they have injury

histories but we can maneuver that we don't need to push all of these guys because we have

these options we saw them do it with Cade Horton a little bit last year going great throwing a

no-hitter in the fifth inning hey are you at 75 pitches that's it we got a championship to try

to win and we need to take care of your arm now I'm not saying that means they baby these guys

the baby Cabrera but they're aware of the risk they're taking here with the potential injury

history and durability issues that we've seen with not just Cabrera but some of the other

guys in this rotation but when you have ten or so solid options to take starts for you that's

what I think they're going to opt for in order to try to hit that ceiling let's hit our first ad

break come back around talk about the actual specifics of what Cabrera does how he fits into the

cup's plans and the rotation and go from there first almost home tavern if you're looking for the

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defined location near your game day men's health all right Brendan kick it to you laid out kind of

the depth and how they may attack the season of course we'll see who ends up getting starts

but when you have that kind of depth you can take on some of the risk associated with some of

these guys how do you feel about that and then let's get into specifically what Cabrera does and

what he brings to this rotation it's a matter of choosing from 11 pictures putting each of those

11 pictures in the best possible position for success so we listed off 11 guys on the very

bottom of that list is Ben Brown and Jordan Wix those were two pictures who were maybe in the top

seven not just two seasons ago putting those guys in the best position of success means

continuing their development we saw Jordan Wix at Shred Athletics Tyler Zamboz training development

facility he's developing a new curveball that they put out a video about it's a matter of which of

those 11 guys provide value and success should Cabrera go down should Justin Steele take a little

bit longer to come back Matthew Boyd's age prone decline possibly could hit the cubs unexpectedly

you have Shota Imanaga who was injured last year at the hamstring injury he came back a little

bit slow you've all these different instances where you can see it going wrong but unlike last year

they didn't have the high ceiling depth to offset some of those late season struggles that's why

you saw Colin Ray in game five the NLDS Colin Ray if he is pitching again in game five NLDS

something wrong happened last season so I see the cubs continue well or Tyler Zamboz turned

calm right it's their absolute weapon we got Roy Hall at a junior over here perhaps right

but that's how I see the cubs maneuvering their rotation they're going to put each and every one of

those guys in the best position of success and naturally it will work its way out just like the

bullpen did last year and just like the positional roster did last year as well that's why I'm

optimistic was I view Cabrera as one of those high ceiling pieces to the puzzle that would just

frankly we didn't have many of last year and I'm excited to see him work with the cubs coaches

to achieve that high ceiling yeah and before we break down Cabrera specifically like again I'm not

suggesting they baby him I'm not you know I the the six man stuff or you know skipping starts it's

difficult because you want guys in a rhythm they're used to a certain thing it's it's more complicated

I think than just tossing that out on paper but the goal is to have that ceiling in place when

you're toward the end of the season and heading into the playoffs doesn't mean the early season

doesn't matter and it's not to suggest they skip starts or baby guys but it does we saw this with

Kate Horton where you are focused on keeping the guy healthy not focused on well he needs to go

into the seventh or eighth inning that's also where it's important that they've done the work

money wise to bolster the middle of the bullpen and to have that depth at starting picture where

hobby aside can be a swingman Colin Ray can be a swingman those types of things because it allows

you to focus on the bigger picture it's not just hey we need great starts on April 15th you know

when it's 40 degrees it really field against the pirates we are trying to win a division and

win in the playoffs and we need these guys healthy for that and when you have this type of depth

we've seen Craig council do an excellent job with this we all wondered the durability and duration

that Kate Horton might be able to give them last year and if not for a random freak coughing injury

he would have been there they would have done it and all of the yelling when he came out early in

games when he was dealing and they turned it over to the bullpen nobody would have cared because he

would have been shutting down the Padres and the Brewers in the playoffs just an example of when you

have these guys just in steel coming back you don't have to rush him back because you're desperate

for quality starting pitching you can take your time you can react to these guys if they're not

feeling well feeling off it gives them a lot of flexibility even if Brendan they don't have that

like real reliable durability in the rotation that maybe we wanted them to get throughout the

offseason and when you have 11 options you may not have to spend your future prospects to acquire

someone more a trade that might yeah correct right so that's that's again the principal reason for

is the volume and the high ceiling with that volume that's something that I'm not familiar with

and I'm fascinated and interested to watch develop immediately when they report the camp immediately

I'm owning in on what Cabrera is doing with that fastball what Jordan wicks curveball looks like

what James Tione's new repertoire looks like there's always ever changing it's going to be such

an interesting spring training maybe even the most interesting camp we've seen since covering

this team just because you have 11 starting pitchers who are really hardly working to be the

best version of themselves yeah let's get into Cabrera and what he brings talk to us about his

strengths we'll get into the weaknesses but if you're if a fan is listening and they like

though in Casey they knew he was the number one prospect they're not super familiar with what's

going on down in Miami why did the cubs just trade their number one prospect for Edward Cabrera

the reason they traded Owen Casey for Cabrera is that they believe it's more projectable to create

value with that fastball than it is to project Owen Casey's with struggles in the future if you look

at what Cabrera does well it stands out right away on video he throws change ups between 94 to 97

miles per hour I did not misspeak it is a change up classification this means that Edward Cabrera

has a unique ability to throw really fast with a movement profile that virtually no picture has

that movement profile being run and sink okay so he throws 95 mile per hour pitches that jam and go

towards the kneecaps of right handed batters then he has a curve ball that goes down in a way to

those varieties that's also a difficult pitch for any successful right hand better to hit so those

are the two features he has that stand out the room for improvement optimization is that fastball

that fastball run value was in the fourth percentile last year he throws a sinker he throws a

forcing fastball the sinker was one of the strengths of his in 2025 that he didn't have in 2024

now if you look at what I mean by that let's look at this graph on the left you see his movement

profile in 2024 you're going to look at all these different dots they look like skittles go to

the top right of that left panel you're seeing red dots you're seeing orange dots that's a red

force seemer in a sink in an orange sinker and then that green change up now go all the way to the

right you're seeing all those pitches they just went down that forcing fastball vertical break that

went down that change up that had more bite to it that sinker that had more bite to it why is that

the case he dropped his arm angle so by dropping his arm angle which by the way typically correlates

to fewer injuries and less arm problems that dropping of the arm angle led to more depth on his

pitches and an ability for him to locate his sinker more inside this strike zone and that was one

reason why you saw that sinker usage double but even though he was able to make these changes

he was unable to have that type of success we need for a fastball so having a fastball run value

that's even league average would be a huge benefit for him but unfortunately that was not the case

he had again that forcing fastball that to that that sinker run pressure was in the fourth percentile

so the question that you're going to be following what's camp opens quarry is what are they going to do

with that fastball are they going to change the shape are they going to just keep it as is don't

mess with them he's injury prone we don't want to change much or are they going to change your

grip are they going to change a little bit of his arm angle again are they going to change the

sequencing there's many different ways you can imagine them going about this but all you really

need from cabrera is an average fastball he was able to have run prevention numbers that were

above average with one of the least productive fastballs in the league i cannot emphasize that enough

that is the reason why one of the reasons why the cops find them appealing because you don't see

many pictures have that success without a fastball and cabrera is one of those guys so

two things i want to ask you with what you know about the cubs pitching infrastructure how you

anticipate they might attack tweaking this but the first quiet the the the first one i want to ask you

is like optimistically they get in there they have a ton of ideas they clearly have had their

eye on this guy i feel like they have an idea of what they plan to do here of course

what is the ceiling the ceiling is an unquestionable ace for two reasons reason number one

change up reason number two curveball if he's healthy and has an average fastball that should

correlate to run prevention numbers that all of us will consider a top two starter no doubt about it

the injury concerns are a big sticking point and it's why it was only own casey the fastball

inability to be productive is also another reason why team shot away from cabrera in addition to

the injury concerns so yes he is a ceiling of an ace type pitcher how the cubs go about molding

that it could be against sequencing i don't think they're going to change much with his ability to

move the ball out of his hand the reason being because he has those injury concerns we talked about

Matthew boy having success for the cubs last year Matthew boy did go to drive lines several years

ago to work on a change up he ended up pronating which is how he moves his wrist off the ball

he said that led to elbow concerns so i am mashing the cubs this is years ago now i'm sure every team

is in tune with this type of risk but i'm mashing the cubs don't want to take a risk on changing

mechanically something as significant as a fastball so i think it may be more of just like letting

it go seeing how he naturally evolves but setting his pitch sequencing up and his pitch types up

for maximal success and then once he grows comfortable with his coaching staff with hot IV with

the entire assemble then maybe you may start seeing a little bit of experimentation but i would

i would be surprised to see significant mechanical tweaks right at the outset

yeah and look i think too before we hit our second ad break here like this is a guy they have

three years of control and it you know isn't necessarily something that you make all of these

adjustments the first spring training you have a guy in your system this can be an evolving process

see how things go see how he's meshing with your system uh and taking it from there it's not

something that needs to necessarily be done overnight but yeah look i mean the risk is there uh

that that's what we talked about um you are not getting a guy that has that proven 30-start

ability uh you are getting a guy that you know clearly i was watching that video from uh the

wonderful lands over at the marquee network like it sounds like some teams were not super intrigued

by the medicals that they saw but you know this is part of being a fan of an organization like we

don't have to trust that they're always correct or appeal to authority there but you have to i

think you have to believe they know what they're doing here. Jed doesn't want to trade his top

prospect uh for a guy that's gonna fall apart in a month they have to have conviction in what

they're doing their jobs are on the line here regardless of whether Jed signed an extension like

time will tell right but this is a big swing we all know it's a big swing and if it proves to be a

big miss like they'll they'll hear about it and then they're gonna have to you know reap the

consequence of that so we'll see what happens but yeah it's a risk and and that's the path that

they've taken rather than shelling out for a guy that you know hey you can look at and like it

didn't have to be done cease but as an example like hey we have us five year sample like this guy's

gonna make 30 starts we're really safely betting on that that's not what they have here and that's

the the course that they've taken and the decision they've made and they're they've made the bed they're

gonna have to lie in it Brendan and and we'll see what happens but let's hit our second ad break

here and then we'll come back we'll keep talking about that and we'll we'll talk about what the

cubs need to do that will they do they need to do Brendan with the remaining money all right winter

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back with you here um I think part of how I'm looking at this is I would have a tough time

rating the offseason so far uh because I like this deal a lot but they're they're still a good

bit of uncertainty despite the depth that we discussed in this rotation uh they've you know

re-added to the bullpen but mostly in like a middle-ish relief sense that there's not too many of those

guys that I would necessarily expect uh in high leverage roles now of course going into last year

I wouldn't have put my money on Brad Keller being that guy so you know trust their their infrastructure

but it's it's not as though same thing they've gone out and signed like sure fire like

this guy's our closer he's better than Daniel Palencia types um so it's certainly an incomplete

offseason as we sit here right now if they keep if they push up to that first year of the luxury

tax and they spend the money that they have left and bring in a bat that they've been connected to

I think it would be a very solid effort of an offseason depending on the bat I can't give you a

grade without it but I do think like we're they're not there yet so I I do want to be clear like I'm

pleased with this trade I like it I love the potential ceiling that this rotation has I texted you

you know the minute it happened that I'm you know I I had a vision of Kate Horton Justin

steel Edward Cabrera starting the first three games of a playoff series and I love it I love

this stuff I love the potential but right like it's not done it's it's not done I have the same

concerns about the offense that I had coming into the offseason and I think if you're constantly

in this mode of trading top prospects for areas of the team that you could also improve if you

spent money and sign contracts that maybe you're not so comfortable with etc I don't think it's

I don't think it's good enough as we sit here right now but long runway that that's why we always

say like gotta wait till the team takes the field in March and and the roster's final because

there's a lot of runway left here and I hope that the Cubs aren't done so it's the cold April day

they ask you swans is leading the infield out he takes shortstop Niko Horner takes second base

Michael Bush takes first base who's taking third base for you right now right now who's taking third

base it better be Alex Breggman so so do do this for me we have a you any of us wars we have

Boba Shet we have Alex Breggman I want you to rank I know you have Breggman number one but I want

you to try your best to express the difference for your status faction between Breggman and

Boba Shet Breggman and Suarez and Bishet and Suarez are we not are we only doing like infielders

we're not talking about like Cody Belinger we can put in Cody Belinger it's getting thrown out

there Michael yeah we're talking about Cody Belinger again sure we can put Cody Belinger in there as

well okay maybe they're just doing a favor for an old friend to get the Yankees to pay him more

yellow wink wink also depends like I don't know like I I was reading you know the rumor today that

Boba Shet wants three hundred million dollars like that also like that so does Cody Belinger not

that I'm not there for Tom but I'm like I don't I don't know about that um

if you've listened to us for two off seasons I I love the idea of Alex Breggman I think he's

an excellent fit for this team but he's a cheater I don't care I've said this before like

come over here you guys want to cheat you win a championship I don't care do whatever you want

um I love the idea I think he's a great fit for this team uh a guy that is you know not as high

average of a hitter as Nico but a really quality slash line kind of guy not a you know two ten hitter

either uh gets on base provides a little bit of power I think he would wear out uh that left

center gap at rigley field and he is as you've described it before a baseball rat him and Danzby

Swanson not only playing defense on the left side of the infield but leading in that clubhouse

you are really adding to a group that like they are going to die to try to win a championship

for the Chicago Cubs now I like the idea of bow uh you maybe are shifting on on the defensive

value if that's the the range you go and then shifting to Suarez I like the idea of the thumb

I think adding some significant slug to this lineup would certainly be great that's the thing like

Breggman is a really quality hitter a well-rounded hitter uh but you wouldn't necessarily unless

Sayah and Michael Bush really push that home run total level or I guess Pete you know pulls off

30 again but maybe doesn't do it in such a you know front loaded kind of way uh you wouldn't

necessarily have a lineup that was full of that like real just raw slug but I think it'd be a really

well-rounded lineup with Suarez though I think maybe the hope would be it doesn't cost as much

and then you can I don't know maybe find a high leverage reliever or keep you know supplementing

your bench whatever it might be so my preference is Breggman it it's not necessarily perfect

and I think there would still be uh you know I think thumb would kind of be the the main thing

in that lineup wouldn't be perfect but I think with that rotation and the potential and the well

roundedness of you know a few of those hitters in that lineup I would I would call that a really good

effort from the front office to respond to losing the division to Milwaukee getting knocked out

by Milwaukee uh I think that would be a very quality offseason I think any any of those paths

would represent a a pretty solid effort again for Jed right Brendan like I'm trying to evaluate

Jed with the knowledge that he has a limit on what he can spend so that's always a discussion

it's always I'm saying like grading the front office in how they spend the money is different than

grading the organization and what money they have and how they're using it and how they're using

the resources that's always going to be part of the discussion for a lot of fans that they're

never going to be able to accept justifiably so with the money totally understand that when we

started the offseason and they'll see signed with Toronto right away my thinking was oh my god we

need pitching I want forever of all does that's my guy I I would have picked him over Breggman

three months ago I was worried about the starting and pitching depth then I'm watching what the

offseason's unfolding like I'm seeing okay the bullpen's being filled by five guys they spent over

20 million a short of the bullpen they brought back short of even Naga on a one-year deal they brought

back uh Cohen Ray okay the starting pitching depth is gonna be a little bit better now they traded

for Cabrera and I see the money starting to add up and I start thinking oh I need I need Breggman

like I need Breggman I don't just want Breggman I can't stop thinking about Breggman come on

all over I'm welcome here the whole time I've never wanted a free agent more in my life right now

than Alex Breggman he checks all the boxes and when I try to figure out okay how do the Cubs get

the best value of every single one of these free agents on the market besides Kyle Tucker it was

undeniably Alex Breggman this is what I mean I ran a simulation I said okay let's have Alex

Breggman join the team what would that do how do you optimize wins above replacement give me every

single number of played appearances for every single player tell me what it's like you know what it

came back out as first and foremost match shot can still play match shot can still get 500

played appearances even if you sign Alex Breggman so if you're thinking oh man well match shot

a great second half he should have won maybe a gold glove by many people standards he can still play

he's now perhaps D.A. Chain some games maybe Breggman's D.A. Chain maybe Nico spells this is a way

to increase your depth sure stop being backed up by Nico Breggman backing up Nico Shaw backing up

everyone you don't take away at bathroom virtually any one of the stable hitters on this team

when you add Breggman and the net gain of war if you do sign Breggman I know he doesn't have

the slug everyone wants but this is a value driven organization a value driven league you add two

and a half war Corey so that puts your team it shifts your eyes to play out probability significantly

and then from a fans perspective my perspective that type of personality that he brings I gravitate

towards the most think about John Lester John Lester you think about him all the time it was his

birthday yesterday happy birthday John Lester one of the reasons you liken as well so many other

fans is the attitude the unquestionable desire to win at all cost Alex Breggman has that Nico

Horner has that dance piece wants and has that Jamison time on PCA this would be such an intense

roster that if they do have success that yields value ten years from now twenty years from now

fans remember that they still sell jerseys I don't really see that with other players

on the free agent market right now that has that type of intensity the type of attractiveness

to fans from a personality standpoint and for me he checks all the boxes I would love for Breggman

to be a cub yeah I'm quite into it I I'm not positive I love I want them to add another bad I

I see our guy nearing in the chat here and I I do agree like and this has been my whole thing

with the offseason like however you put it together and we can certainly like debate how they

spent the money how they built the roster etc but here we are like they need to treat this offseason

in a way that losing the division and getting bounced by the Milwaukee Brewers is not okay with them

they need to respond aggressively and come into this season being a prohibitive favorite in their

own division and like enough is enough where they are right now I don't think they're there I do

think that continuing this offseason and pushing it over the line is what gets you there and

pushing it over the literal tier one tax line well if we had our way sure yeah I don't know if

if Jed you know has to get the green light for that or what exactly the process is there but yeah

that's what they should be doing that's what they should be doing in order to take this to that

level is whatever Jed feels like he needs to bring that bad in if that's the area that he wants to

continue adding in they they need to green light him to do that this is the year to do that we've

talked about that friend and with so much money coming off the books with so many contributions

from young cost-controlled guys with Cabrera fitting right into that now Cabrera PCA Michael Bush

Justin Steele like these guys potentially the the contribution from someone like Moises by

Astero's Cade Horton like you have these like potential high-level contributors some have proven

they can do it like at at such low cost this is the time to say hey you know what we're pushing past

the tax we are going to go for it and we're going to take this floor which right now is a solid

team if they broke camp right now I think this is a solid team I think they compete for the division

they compete for a playoff spot but they are like so close to me many a few moves a couple moves

from that line of like okay like this is a a extremely legitimate group and like barring

catastrophe they should be winning this division and a threat in the playoffs they're like right

there and that's not to say it can't happen with the group currently is constructed but we always

talk about like mitigating that risk adding more certainty and reliability I feel like they're

right there Brendan and I would love to see this organization from the top act like it so the

question is can they afford Breckman right Niren our good friend Niren said they don't have the

money to do it so why even talk about it well they what they do but they they made an

awesome does Jed might not yes so the argument that I've had myself is they can afford Breckman

underneath their own constraints because number one in 2024 they did go over the tax and they

did accept marginal penalties just a couple million over that first tier of the tax they have done

that before number two ownership has said they can be around the tax not didn't say going

always saying under the tax number three there's going to be a new CBA next year so this whole

tax penalty structure will be negotiated it's unclear what it looks like in subsequent years what

the escalating penalties would be and then keep going forward with this discussion if they do

sign Breckman right now according to different payroll projections they're 30 to 35 million maybe

closer to 35 million below that first tier maybe even a little bit more if that's the case if you

sign Breckman let's say for a 28 million AV contract you're still maybe around 5 to 8 million

below that first tier now let's say you do sign up and you hit that first tier already then you do

leave yourself susceptible to limited moves at the deadline but it's still something that the

front office would be willing to accept as a risk and then finally the most important thing is

if they accept a little bit more of a penalty this year they have clean books next season we're talking

they're committed payroll for 27 is under 40 million dollars Gory under 40 million everyone's

coming off the books how are they going to fill those holes you fill those holes with projectible

value that's what you may now go out and get slug and it says spend that money on Breckman

so to near his point they're not going to do it they could do it there's a path forward to do it

it's realistic that yes even this ownership group and this front office would do it they got

approval to do it last season they went over two years ago to say that it can't be done is simply

inaccurate it's possible and then finally absolutely every fan should be pushing for this

I think the fans are yeah I mean we'll see what the organization does it's possible 2027 I'm

enjoying the story from our guide Daniel and the chat here yeah city tried out during the strike

I you might be on the team in 2027 Daniel they might they might need the payroll so maybe I'll be

on the team you know I want to ask you like we'll see what they do I I will stand on business that

again like it's not to suggest this isn't a good roster as it stands but I think it can it's

certainly can be better and they're right there to me unlike really being at that point where you

feel really confident in the group and their ability to do some real damage in this season not that

it can happen as constructed but we've talked about stuff that can go right stuff that can go wrong

there's there's a lot of variability in certain parts of this roster right now how do you feel about

we saw our guy Michael talking about Cody Belinger we see that popping up how would you

feel about that one I got to be honest with you like it doesn't it doesn't move the needle as much

for me I take it another bat like he you know I enjoyed his time here but it it isn't immediately the

thing that that jumps out at me as the move that that I would like to see them make well I also

started looking at the outfield depth I think oh man what if Seah goes down who's playing right

field is a Kevin O'Connorah can Tyler Smith play the corners appropriately what if Kevin O'Connorah

has to play center field what if a contour I can't hit right hand a pitching at the big league level

so there is a void in the outfield that Belinger were just simply fill and you don't have to worry

about that any slot in Shaw third base like you did last season that would be the argument for it

another great defender another great defender basically at every single outfield position

now the bat does not project to age as well as Breckman that's why long term you would want to

fill that long term value with someone who does age projection better uh I'm fine with Belinger

but like you it doesn't it doesn't do it for me like I want again just to be crystal clear

this is an entertainment industry okay I want compelling storylines I want a fun roster and

most importantly I want to win now next year and the year after that and I want to come back on

the show 10 years from now and say remember the 2026 Cubs people forgot that right that's what I want

to do into me the guy who fills all those imaginary check boxes is Alex Breckman in Cody Belinger

you look at the future again I don't know if he can fit that mold in the future uh like we had

Belinger he did go down at times I kind of know what that feels like I want something novel I want

something intense now what Alex Breckman on my baseball team Cory yeah I have yeah welcome to it

yeah I've been thinking about it for a while uh we'll see yeah and look you know now it it is

going to be a test it feels like they need that last something to fill out this roster on the offensive

side uh but it it is going to test a lot of what has been discussed uh in our youtube chat tonight

and you know for several off seasons reading the offers that you know some of these guys are

projected for it may push them to a spot that we really have not seen them get to is this possible

these names that we're listing if we are waiting for the deal to come to us as we've seen in some

of these off seasons past will it like I I sort of initially scoff at the bishet 300 million dollar

ask but maybe somebody's willing to do it Toronto scene you know we're hearing a little more

smoke with them and Kyle Tucker like they seem intent on getting over the line of winning the world

series and not losing in extra innings by half a step uh so maybe that offer is big the Yankees

haven't done a lot of anything and maybe Cody Belinger is the guy that they need to bring back

this may be a situation where like if you want to add to this offense and have one of these guys

that's available out there uh you might have to get a little uncomfortable now if if one of these

guys is willing to take a classic Cubs short term maybe higher AAV deal throw an opt out in there

I don't know whatever they want great you know that that'd be great I'm sure that's what the

front office is is sitting around waiting for but uh it it it would be nice to see a little conviction

like hey we've traded two of our better prospects these last couple off seasons to fill some of

these holes and needs of the team the slugger and Kyle Tucker last year the potential you know high

ceiling top of the rotation young arm in cabrera this time you're running out of prospects the

system isn't isn't very good anymore like you may have to get uncomfortable and throw out a contract

and throw out some money that is not necessarily your normal practice if you want to take this team

and roster to the next level and I I think again this is the group to do it we've talked about it

before this isn't the 2022 Cubs where there's no chance they're winning 90 games it's a good roster

make it great push it to that next level I mean it feels good to be even in this discussion right even

last year with getting Kyle Tucker when the projections came out that they were going to win 90 games

by Pecota we're all like what the hell is going on we never even thought that was possible even

with Kyle Tucker being acquired band graphs haven't projected 84 wins there's a lot of like

uncertainty here if you get brugman you see the depth you see like 90 wins you're not really

blinking it feels like a deep roster and it's likely the case once the projections do come out

so it's exciting to be in this position you got so many different compelling storylines from

the positional side p croarmstrongs third year bushes a booming year where maybe he plays against

lefties more moises by estero's making more abats against uh uh majorly pictures as a dh you may

see say Suzuki play more right field innings you have e and a half on his last year on contract who's

one of the longest term cubs in recent memory it's a lot of storylines I think you just keep layering

that on with Alex Brugman that third base you got match shots to them and you got Nico Horner's

contract year it would be fun and you can do all of this while contending for a world series

and setting yourself up for a future that is sustainable yeah so we have a few minutes here I do

want to answer I'm legally obligated to answer uh pdpabs in the youtube chats his quarry who is

Eddie vetter's favorite cub I think I'm on her bound to answer that I have heard him on a number

of times talk about who's a cardinal oh yeah oh yeah as his uh I feel like that is the answer

uh when he was growing up he certainly you know can he bring him on stage uh I don't know about

Jose but he brought earning on stage at rigley field uh before he passed away um I think the first

time that they played there but I I my instinct is that he would say Jose cardinal yeah I think

modernity he may say Rizzo right like this in the past era I mean they're they're interviewing the

bleachers was uh was pretty spicy was uh pretty loose if you will yeah I think Eddie will drink wine

with just about anybody in a cub's jersey so I mean they know in all reality quick thought in

that he better the the world series something any stretch like my favorite of all time because like

I'm I'm washing that I'm like oh this guy this guy over here he's thinking everyone he senses the

magnitude of the moment and maybe maybe Eddie veteran was returning point in that role series maybe

it wasn't kb so I'm like our our our guy Dana this was not you know during a strike but Eddie

veteran was always at the cubs like fantasy camp all the time and like full uniform

exactly so yeah yeah he he lives the gimmick brother uh that's amazing so finishing it off

I'm I'm I'm excited brand new I think they they got to pay it off I I don't want them to be done

I don't think it's good enough to be done uh but the roster is good as is and I think they have

the ability if they want to use it to take it to that next level to the point where we are all

feeling really good and like I said that getting bounced and run over again by the Milwaukee Brewers is

not not okay and and their response is to come back with a team they feel really strongly that

that will not happen again uh but we'll see we'll see how they finish it off there's a lot of

runway left lot of names out there and we'll see what this organization wants to do but I'm excited

I'm intrigued uh on what Tommy hot ofy Tyler Zombro can do with a guy like Edward Cabrera and the

potential there a guy with you know potentially some of the best stuff in the league uh and

let's let's see how they can cook in that lab and what this rotation looks like as we go through

the year so Brennan I will back with you next week hopefully we have some more more moves to talk

about more parts of this roster that are rounded out uh as we get closer to spring training somehow

some way but and then just a you know a matter of weeks away at this point you know from people

reporting and Mesa I I bet if he had signed Alex Breggman would already be there though in the

game it made out he has we'll see a manifest uh keep it tuned to Luke Joey throughout the week

we appreciate your support and as always go Cubs