CHGO Cubs Related: What Do the 2016 Cubs and the 2026 Cubs with Alex Bregman Have in Common?

This is the CHGO Cubs related podcast driven by Toyota. Let's go places. My name is Corey. I am joined as always by Brendan. It is Thursday, January 15th and Brendan.

Cubs con this weekend. John Lester is going to be in town. They're celebrating. Look at that. What is that anniversary? I need contacts winning the world series winning the world series.

The Chicago Bears are hosting their second playoff game of the season and Alex Breggman is a Chicago Cubs. Look at us, Brendan. Who would have thought what a time to be alive. Corey, we have a gold lover.

At third base. We have a gold glove everywhere at shore stop. You have a gold lover at second base. This is. I'm getting emotional thinking about this is my dream. I used to dream of having these star studded infields. He's decorated former world series champion.

Gold lovers. I was obsessed with no more Garcia para. I almost fainted when the Cubs treated for more than I was a small little kid or teenager. This is unbelievable that we're at this point and we can talk about a multi time gold glove infield and maybe even let's make it a quadruple gold glove with Michael Bush at first base this year.

I think he can get there. So plenty to talk about on tonight's episode. Obviously, if you missed it, Brendan and Luke jump in during the Bears game.

That was not a little inside info for a watching the game. And I'm so depressed, but the bear said, you know, I need a distraction. I'm going to do the live show with Luke. He needs a distraction. I need a distraction. Next thing you know we're doing the podcast. There's two minutes left in the game. They're missing field goals. They're coming back. I literally hung up with Sarah or producer. They took the lead on that DJ more touchdown. So I'm not saying that Luke and I let them win the game.

And Alex Breggman spawned that victory. But Alex Breggman's already bringing bringing victories and wins to Chicago and supposedly he will be in the building on Sunday at a frigid soldier field. But this is the Cubs related podcast. So that is Cubs related.

Plenty to talk about Alex Breggman introduced obviously as I was alluding to Luke and Brendan hopped on during that Bears game when Alex Breggman signed to do an emergency reaction. So Joey Luke Justin have had their reactions. But I've been the Breggman guy. You're going to have to get my reaction, even though it's a few days late. But what was your first reaction?

Let me let me finish the outline for everybody. I want to talk about that. I'm getting introduced at Wrigley Field on Thursday afternoon. I want to talk about his comments, Jett Hoyer's comments.

Also want to talk about the deferrals in the contract. What that might be.

Well, for what that means for ownership and maybe going forward here, some of the rumors that still abound and finishing off this offseason, it doesn't sound like they're necessarily totally done.

So plenty to talk about here on this episode. And I know already you in particular, Brendan, like we'll talk about the on the field impact.

But some of those that information and those quotes from Breggman from Jed about what's going on, even already off the field.

You're in love. I already know you're like, I can't believe this is our reality. It's so fun to have a trio of these infielders with the same mindset.

Breggman is a psycho. I can't wait to see it.

Yeah, so my initial thoughts, but I do want to say I see that quote from Joshua Blankenship in the chat.

First live show, listening from West Virginia, Joshua, pleasure to have you here.

And everybody else in the live chat. I see Niren's here from Evil Wax, Becky, a lot of people in there.

We appreciate you joining us. Drop your thoughts as we're going.

This reaction, Brendan, I'm thrilled. And this is one like, hey, if it doesn't work out, I've been banging on this drum for two off seasons.

I think he's an excellent fit for this team. We'll talk about some of the off field stuff, you know, I think that comes up in the press conference as well, just his work ethic, the baseball rat mentality that you're hearing a lot about.

You know, we went through it, right? Like it, he is such a solid all around hitter.

And while he may not have that ceiling that say an absolute ideal outcome from like Kyle Tucker that maybe he was on pace for in those first three months, his overall consistent value across, you know, offense defense, his leadership.

And the type of hitter that he is to compliment this lineup. We've talked so much about some of the younger guys, some of the guys where you're like, well, are they going to be more like their first half last year, their second half, they had really extreme outcomes at different points.

Bregman, while not being a 300 hitter like Nico does represent one of those more just consistent, stable, really solid hitters that allows those other guys to be a little more volatile, take a little bit of the pressure off them, but you know what you're going to get in Alex Bregman.

And so I was overjoyed with that and assuming they don't do anything stupid like our guy, Joey is talking about and, you know, trading Nico Horner just say no.

They're going to have a very complete offense and lineup from top to bottom. And I'm very excited about it. And I'm very excited. Look.

What it means even, you know, figuratively, Brendan, there's two off seasons, they've been connected to him. We've read a lot of rumors that their models, their internal models, really liked Alex Bregman.

And so I think to have a second off season, if you miss on that, it represents something. So the opposite represents something too. This was your guy and to read finally that the Cubs outbiting the Boston Red Sox.

Another team where they're fans debate their spending, but they have the money if they want to, they outbid them and they do what they have to do to get the guy.

You wanted the guy, go get him. If it's a little out of your comfort zone in terms of the money or the deferrals or anything, you want the guy, go get him. And they did.

And I think that represents something we should all be pretty pleased about now doesn't mean they're going to go and spend like the Padres or the Metz or the Dodgers and have a $400 million pay roll.

But we've been looking for them to act more like this. And so to see it is rather exciting. And it happens to come with a guy that I'm quite thrilled they have in the fold.

You can't ask for a better mindset for dancing swans in PCA and Alex Breggman leading the next five years of this franchise, but it will be a next decade before those contracts are up.

So those are the three guys that I gravitate towards personality was. And then you talk about the young people value how you make it work with the rest of the roster.

We're going to go into detail about it. We'll talk about this newness and minutia of how everyone fits, but just bird's eye view.

There was a generality that Jack gave during the press conference and he compared 2016's depth to this current roster. And by the way, 2016.

Very important year, Corey, if you don't remember, they're celebrating it all weekend if you forgot.

And I believe it is a world series championship celebrating. They in that year had hobby bias take about 400 played appearances. Now by the start of the playoffs, you may remember they shifted around the actual positional side of the roster.

You had soberist, moving out into the outfield, you would hobby bias, moving the second base, Chris Bryant. Yeah, Chris Bryant was back at third base.

So the positions moved around and bothers in the outfield.

You had catchers in the outfield and you had Kyle Hendricks getting bass hits in the NLDS by the way, but after the next two years, having that depth naturally worked itself out.

Some guys fizzled really promising prospects fizzled and thankfully the Cubs had the reserve to make up for that middle infield depth.

So we can apply the same logic to match shot and we'll get into the how the number of played appearances work, but having middle infield depth, middle infield depth, not first base depth, not just third base depth.

You have three, four middle infielders as of the last two years that you can shift around the diamond and even maybe in the emergency scenario, you could put one of those guys in the outfield like a match shot in the outfield in an emergency.

Yeah, look, I felt this way last year and I feel this way now I had no concern about this.

I think, you know, you're not always going to be at optimal health and we've seen this before, you know, jet even mentioning, you know, hobby bias in the 2016 versatility, something that we've talked about before.

And I think you can make that work, but you get the good players in the door at the positions that you have available or relatively available and you figure it out from there, I think often the conversation of, you know, our guys blocked.

Should we hold the space for this guy, how are we going to get the played appearances, I get it, but I do think it.

It does naturally work itself off and we've seen in the past couple years, like some of these guys can afford to take a day or two off their feet, even if you have to, you know, rip the ends, be off field, right, like it's okay every now and again, shifting around putting a guy at the age, day off their feet, now you have multiple people that can play shortstop, they can play third base, they can play second base.

You can find ways to make this work, Jett Hoyer even talking about match up playing in the outfield, I don't know if that's something they'll seriously explore.

I mean, you do go back to Joe Madden, like I don't think they went into the year expecting Wilson Contreras to be playing left field, but you know what, like you want the, but you wanted the bad in there on a given night, here's what we're going to do, right.

I mean, game won't sit out.

So wild car 2015, who is your right fielder?

Kyle Schwarbert, right fielder first time.

Yeah, Kyle Schwarbert in the wild car game.

So yeah, I think it's a problem for later and look, maybe they're exploring a trade, it does allow them to take those phone calls.

Like I know it freaks everybody out, especially on Nico, they shouldn't do that. We're not even entertaining that, like don't do that.

He was your best player last year, like there, there's no scenario where the 2026 Cubs are better off by trading Nico Horner.

I'm not even going to use that word trade.

Yes, even as it relates to Matt Shaw, it does give you the opportunity to say, hey, you know what?

Technically, we don't need all of these guys.

If you want to call us and give us a big time prospect call or something like that, we'll field the phone call.

Because we technically are operating now out of a, you know, not a position of need, but a position of death.

But either way, I think, you know, break into such a perfect compliment.

I think to what we felt plagued this team last year on the offensive side as they were getting eliminated and just thinking ahead to the gauntlet of the playoffs, like a guy that does not strike out a ton.

If you're talking about guys ahead, at least 450 played appearances.

Breguin wasn't technically a qualified hitter.

If you're sorting on like fan grass, but 450 played appearances, he would have been in the top five 25.

You had a broad injury in case anyone's wondering you came back.

He, he would have been in the top 25 in K rate, Nico Horner, you know, I think his number five or something like that.

But you felt like this team needed more guys that could put the bat on the ball that could handle elite level pitching and not be so boomer bust at times.

And Breguin is one of the best players available that fits that mold.

So adding him to this group with his ability.

We'll see how it translates.

It's right at Wrigley Field, you know, 2025 home runs, a guy that, you know, can consistently put up a 273 60 450 type.

Slash line really, really compliments this lineup.

And if you do get those closer to extreme outcomes from someone like Michael Bush can carrying over what he did last year, say a Suzuki slugging at his optimal level.

They, spreading out that 30 Homer power in a less volatile way, guys like Nico and then Breguin compliment that so well, they provide the stability.

And then those other guys hopefully can lift that ceiling, but Breguin has such a high floor that he adds to this offense.

And that's not even getting into his overall mentality and how he sees the game and what he's bringing to this clubhouse, which I think is not a small portion.

Of why this is such an exciting deal for this team and where this team is at currently.

So we'll talk more about what was in the press conference.

We'll talk about, you know, Jett Hoyer comparing the team a little bit to 2016.

We'll talk about, you know, title aspirations, what has changed after this?

We'll talk about all that more after we hit our first ad break and we'll come back and keep talking about Alex Breguin and the Chicago Cup.

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Alright, Brennan, back with you here. Let's talk about the press conference that we have with Alex Breggman.

I think the main thing, look, a lot of it focuses on the desire to win what the cubs were planning and where the organization was.

You know, certainly at these things, you get a lot of, it doesn't matter where a guy signs. They're going to say the right things.

They're going to, you know, rah, rah, you know, everything else.

But I think hearing some of this stuff particularly off the field was, we knew this.

You were hearing the stories of them having to, you know, turn the lights on in the middle of the morning at LSU because he kept sneaking in there to go on the batting cage and stuff like that.

Like you know, generally the vibe this guy has, you've read it in the different club houses Houston Boston that he is such a leader and brings that winning mentality.

But even just some of the early stuff that, you know, he was asking for, you know, not only the contact information, but scouting reports on his fellow new teammates on the cubs.

He was setting up calls with the minor lead coordinators so that he understood the language of the organization and how to speak to other players in the organization and making sure that he was consistent in the language that the organization was using throughout his career.

He's learned Spanish because he thinks it's important to speak to his teammates in their native language.

Like you're just listening to some of this stuff going man, like it's hard to quantify this stuff.

But especially when you have a team with so many young players, guys that last year was their first playoff experience last year was their first playoff heartbreak.

And now they're going into a year like some of these guys have never played back to back years where the expectations are this high.

And they're going into a season where people are going to be talking about them potentially is the favorite to win a division like fans are talking about world series expectations again with such a big signing.

Having a player with that level of leadership and experience not only that he's been there and done that but that he owns it man like he wants to be the guy that players are coming to he wants to work with younger players and those in the clubhouse to get better and fix things that they are not excelling at it's really exciting to have a player.

They already have some dance be also lives and breathes this stuff they seem very similar in that regard couple SEC boys like you know yeah.

I don't know I don't know if there's you know that like a rivalry there Vandy and LSU I'm not really sure but having that type of leadership and that sort of like it's not to suggest other guys don't want to win and it's not important but like listen like and I'm not I'm not giving any credence to it I'm not there.

You're hearing sort of the opposite discussion about someone like Kyle Tucker those are some of the conversations you're seeing national shows who knows I hear you but I'm saying.

Not everybody has this attitude that is perceived regmen has right whether that's true about Tucker not I'm just saying that's the national conversation some of the former players were saying that.

To have this conversation and to hear early on the efforts that he's making to be the leader in this clubhouse it's extremely excited.

One of the things I do throughout the season is I track rolling peripherals of chase of every single staccast measurement you can imagine anecdotally not can probably actually do this literally.

Pico Armstrong has those peaks and valleys right there's been instances where even last year you have had a little bit more valley and peak as well one of the most stable guys on that team was Nico Horner his peaks and valleys were both.

Short but high as well and when Pico Armstrong was talking about the playoffs in late September he wrote his own article on the players Tribune I go back to this all the time because it's so.

Illuminating and he was talking exactly about Nico's consistency and he said quote I think what Nico has that I don't yet is the ability to ride the lows to stay cool and calm and trust to work even when it's not paying off.

That's one player Nico Horner that's one perspective that obviously.

Pete is going to learn from he went to Justin Turner last year I'm sure dance piece was also an influence having more of that different perspectives different communication tactics is a plus you take some of those valleys and some of those peaks and you just compress it.

You can boost your weighted runs create a plus by five percentage points you can boost your weight on base average by a few points that does matter embragment I do believe just the way he goes about adjusting and his overall game has to be beneficial to those around.

Yeah and I you know those guys set the precedent it doesn't all only come from them I think you know we would look last year and say that PCA was so much of the identity of the team from at least a fan perspective and that matters in the clubhouse too.

But it because they're doing the reunion and we're talking about it does it does remind me of 2016 like when we think back to those teams we don't like the best player on that team in that year is Chris Bryant.

We don't really think of him as like the identity of the team when we think back on that team I think most of us would think that identity was driven by David Ross John Lester Dexter Fowler Anthony Rizzo Benzo brist like Jason Hayward like those guys creating the culture that that team existed within even if each of them was not necessarily the best player even someone like John Lackie.

Like those guys set the identity of hey like the expectations are through the roof for this team and here's how we're going to go about our business on a day to day basis and I think that when you have a core like Danzby Niko now Alex Bregman some of the other veterans on this team I think that can pace the sort of identity within this clubhouse and what their mantra is on a day to day basis.

Even if some of those guys at times are not the best overall player on the field they kind of dictate the pace a little bit and it's very important.

We talk about the emotions of the game all the time maybe I in the past use those emotional context talk about bringing guys off from AAA to expose them to get them going.

The same can be said in the example you gave about David Ross and the veteran core from 2016 the emotional input for baseball players has an effect the quantifiable effect is unclear because it's so messy but the way you can regulate yourself that drives different motor outputs it drives value and the value is again in those lows mitigating those lows raising those lows and making your foot making your ceiling a little bit more consistent.

I think that's the value of having quote unquote good clubhouse leadership the good clubhouse leadership is a luxury number one but it's also beneficial in changing behavior that leads to actual value.

Value we can talk about this with hobby bias and the effect Joe Madden had on hobby bias certainly Joe Madden traveled to Puerto Rico just before the 2015 season and hobby was hobby and you saw all the adjustments that he made while remaining comfortable in regularly all the different emotional input as well so that's why I gravitate towards those players because in some respect.

When I watch Nico or honor play when I watch dance be swathed and played those guys for constantly keeping a high level of intensity when I was playing don't laugh at me serious here I wish I had that because I I was a mess out there I wish I had their ability to lock it in the fearless and regulate the emotions just as well as they do on a day to day one hundred and 62 game basis.

And I think you're going to have a lot of guys in this clubhouse who can really benefit from this you you may as it stands right now have someone employs us by a starrows who's getting a significant run.

In this lineup for the first time in his career.

Good amount of pressure there and how you make those adjustments how you take that opportunity we talked about PCA a guy like match up right now may be a super utility guy who's starting position was just signed away.

I think he can benefit a lot from the guys in this clubhouse in how to adjust to that how to still take advantage of the opportunity that he has.

You know there's guys across this clubhouse that I think can benefit from that type of leadership and I think getting more of it is is only great and you know look like it it that in it of itself we talked about this a little bit with Justin Turner right like it's got to be more than that it also helps that your guy just turn her.

Alex Breggman has been one of you know the better players in baseball over the last several years so it certainly isn't is an added bonus but I like that to me Brendan was one of the more important things in that conversation but to me perhaps just as it represents the organization as a whole.

I want to do this is our big takeaway presented by X finity imagine that from the press conference and it was really to me.

I you can offer yours but my big takeaway was hearing Jedhoier even loosely explain the conversations that he had with Tom and crane about their philosophy on the deferrals and how to structure these contracts and.

That they it didn't sound like it was something that Jed was like demanding or any contentious things but I think a real sign of healthy conversations with them and the ability for Tom and crane to seemingly.

Change their mind on something we had heard that this organization was just not going to do that it was something they didn't agree with they were resistant to it and when you see so many of these big free agents coming off the board.

With these deferrals in their contract you start to wonder is this necessary to play the game is this a price of sitting at the table is your willingness to do this and.

Kudos to Jedhoier and good on Tom and crane for listening to the guy they're paying to make these decisions and build the team for them it seems to be where some of these contract discussions are going.

So even if it's not something they do at the level of the Dodgers or even if it's not something they do routinely.

As I said at the beginning they wanted a guy and they needed to figure out what they could do to get him away from Boston and that was my big takeaway that they had these productive conversations as a front office and maybe the philosophy on the whole has changed.

Let's talk about how the play appearances make sense and before I let you do that that was the big takeaway presented by X finity and the job for job let's talk about the play appearances how the numbers make sense how you can put Matt Shaw on the roster give him a full slate of that bats moist by a stereos after this second ad break will come back around and talk about all that.

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I've been just told you he's here to win and he's here to play in the world series you can reuse him in November you don't have to put him away one spring stop you save him you keep him for the world series you have your layers there it's multi-perfect this is the happiest I've seen you in 10 years truly that might be true yeah I'd have to think about that I do think there it helps I wanted the guy for two off seasons I think

he compliments this team extremely well with his offensive profile and what he brings to this lineup and I think it was something that was missing and something they needed more of in terms of these consistent stable hitters but in addition to that I do you know it's part of why it it was my exfinity big takeaway like I think it's it is a little symbolic like it's not you know it's not a 200 plus million dollar deal it's not some you know

10 year 900 million dollar crazy thing that we've seen for some of these guys but when we were talking about these rumors I think there was a clear hesitancy from the fan base with a good reason to necessarily believe that if the market reached a certain point they were going to be the team outbidding everyone else and to see them do it to see them add these deferrals again we'll see you know you have to keep doing it

every off season is different like the seasons keep changing but it did feel a little symbolic I think from this organization we wanted them to make a move that said we are not satisfied with losing to the brewers and we're not satisfied with getting eliminated from the playoffs by the brewers and we're not just going to let Kyle Tucker walk and say hey you know here are young guys we believe in then like we we trust it go make the move that says this is our division

our division, and especially after trading your top prospect for Cabrera, it does feel

symbolic of this front office to say, sort of exactly that, like, this our guy, and we're

going to show out for it. We're the Chicago Cubs. We've been waiting for them to make

a move that felt like that, right? Like, we are the Chicago Cubs, we have this muscle behind

us, and we're going to use it. And they did.

Is there any trepidation about how the current roster fits for a full season? Is there trepidation

in the outfield depth? Is there maybe a saturation in the infield with having Sean that's super

to your two utility role? What do you think is a natural way this works out?

In terms of where everybody plays. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we'll see. I think, you know, this

is also a part of the reason that you pay to cancel the money that you do. You know,

you want a guy who we saw him do it a lot in terms of sometimes much to the chagrin of

the fan base, but, you know, swapping out Michael Bush midgain if, you know, they brought

in a tough lefty or getting Kate Horton out at the 75 pitchmark, even if he was pitching

a, you know, no hit shutout, things like that. That's why you pray could play, pay Craig

counsel tongue tongue twister to make these decisions and to make it work. I, I think it

can work. Guys are often not at optimal health. You know, we've seen some of these guys

being neutralized by certain splits. And I think the, the immediate thought that I have

is if you are keeping match awe, he's still in trade rumors. I think it's going to continue

until, you know, maybe these other teams clear up those positions. I think the one thought

would be if you believe in match on, you do believe that say, Niko Horner wants shortstop

money and he's not going to return. And he's going to be your second baseman. Can you

get him enough played appearances to allow him to continue his development? We saw him

have such an extreme rookie season, but make significant adjustments. Can you get him

in there enough to allow him to truly be doing that? I think the answer is yes. I think

these things just work themselves out. But I would understand if that was kind of the,

the area people are thinking about. Otherwise, not really. I, I mean, I had the same question.

So I wanted to model it. Cubs are a modeling organization. Yeah. This is a modeling fan.

That was the worst thing they could have said you guys that they, that they adhere to these

models. Brendan's like, that's me. That's me. Come in my DMs cups. So I did model this.

And I asked my computer. I said, Hey, give me the optimal play appearance number for every

single hitter based on their fan grass projected war. Give me the total numbers. And here are

some positional constraints. You can't have match shock catching. You can't have noises

by Starrows playing a short stop. This is the output they gave me match.

Shaw gets 522 play appearances. Alex Brugman. This is not going to happen. It's 686. Okay.

The rest makes sense. Dance B. Swanson 650. Nico Horner 670. Say it 600. Michael Bush 560.

E and half 650. Carson Kelly and Miguel Maya at 380 to 60 respectively. Then the bench.

This is how the bench works out. Tyler Austin 280 coming to Contra. And right now we'll

see what they do with the very last spot in Jonathan Long maybe or whoever's going to be

playing Jonathan Long's role about 25 or 30 games each. So what does that mean? Well,

what about Moises by Starrows? Well, Moises by Starrows in this scenario will get about 130

played appearances. So that's the word. That's that's the area of critique you can give

this scenario. But then I just listed 680 for Brugman. I just listed upwards to 670 for

Nico as well as Dance B. Swanson. Now Tyler Austin gets 280. You start subtracting. You

want to give Mo 350 from there. That's 3 to 4 games. 50 from Tyler Austin. Hell. Most

stars hitting Tyler Austin. You're going to play a lesson in the DH role. Mo you get 300

played appearances. You can easily work your way up to getting Moises by Starrows. The

played appearance number he deserves. Here's the beneficial aspect of this. The roster

self-rugulates. Matt Shaw does not hit. Well, Moises by Starrows. You're playing DH. You

just swap those numbers. What happens if Moises by Starrows doesn't hit and Matt Shaw hits.

Thank God we have Alex Brugman. So you get your safety net in Matt Shaw. You get your safety

net in Moises by Starrows and a safety net in Alex Brugman. Your roster naturally works

its way out and you are not just trying to make it work. You are probabilistically able

to make it work in this scenario. We don't have to squint to figure out. Matt Shaw needs

to play left field. You can still make this work as it used a DH as leverage and it works

its way out even when those guys are failing. Well, and look, I think the counter, this

is the problem you want to have. Yes, of the opposite. It's not, I want to even frame

it as a problem. No, this is what I want. But the thought exercise, you want to be talking

about, hey, we feel like we have guys, we need to get more played appearances. How do

we do it? The alternative is what they dealt with last year at third base. You gave it

to Matt Shaw when that didn't work. Justin Turner didn't really start hitting even left-handed

pitching until midway through the season. John Birdie, Vidal Brugman, basically worthless

over there. Gage Workman, like the guys that they tried. And so then you're sort of like,

uh oh, we don't have a major league third baseman unless our 22 year old rookie comes back

from Triple A and figured out how to hit, which he did. Kudos to Matt Shaw and like making

those adjustments. But I think like, that's, that's the alternative. The, the, the situation

that you have now is akin in this, in that sense, when you think about 2016, where the exercise

is, hey, we have guys we'd like in this lineup. Maybe we can't get them in there every night

for all nine innings. Maybe we're subbing guys out mid game. Maybe some guys aren't playing.

But what a wonderful problem to have because the alternative is if anybody gets hurt,

or any of these younger guys struggle, you don't really have strong backups or secondary

options for those guys. And that's obviously quite necessary. We see it across the league

all the time. So I think it, it, it, it is just one of those things that I do anticipate

working itself out. And whether that's, you know, got, again, guys needing time off their

feet. Guys will get hurt, even if it's small injuries that take them out for little bits

at a time. But that also, you know, it provides that insurance to those guys. We think about

Dan's be playing through that core issue. Some of those other things you want the depth.

He's always going to feel like he has to do that. But if you have that quality depth

and the guys stepping in are really deserving of that playing time, it, it makes it a little

more comfortable for those guys to say, Hey, you know what? I'll take a day off my

feet. Sure. Great counsel. Like I will sit today. That's fine.

Yeah. I near and brought up a good point. Say and right, feel a worrisome. The outfield depth,

if you want to be the most pessimistic, I share some of those potential concerns. I share

the concern with folks about coming to Contra is ability to hit right handed pitching.

If he is put in a position where say it goes down and he has to get almost every second

day at bats, I'm not inclined to think that's a good strategy. Then you start thinking

we'll can Tyler Austin play the corners with proficiency. He was in Japan and don't stadiums

34 years old. Riggley's a mess out there sometimes. It does feel as if they may come

in point where Jets looking around and trying to shore up some of the outfield depth that

he wish he had when the season started. At the same time, you do look at Kevin Alcundra

and he's one of those guys that has a high ceiling that can play not just a good center

field, but a well above average center field that can go left field to right field as well.

And then we did talk about match shop maybe having to play left field in an emergency.

Let's say if there's an injury to say it or he and half, you can shift around guys and

make it work. Is it ideal? I don't think it's ideal. I think there's room to improve

the outfield depth, but it's a manageable decision from the front office to make as the

season progresses. And if you go into the year, I think, oh, man, you know, say a defensively

is a liability. I also don't think that's quite true. You know, he played there for multiple

seasons. Some games do not look the best, but he is comfortable at Riggley field and

some guys are not comfortable playing there for the first time. And quite frankly, when

I was Washington Tucker in right field last year, there were some games where you just not

seen it well. And he's a quality outfielder in and of himself. So I do think say it's fine,

defensively in right field. There's no trepidation for me with say other. I don't either. I,

yeah, I mean, he certainly has had his share of miscues, but I think on the whole, he plays

a fine right field and miscues are at night. When like the ball gets lost in the lights, I feel

like like balls that come in on them. But I think he's fun. Yeah, I do, I do to it. At least not

worth, you know, maneuver anything. For the interesting thing too, last year, he put up a lot

better offensive numbers when he also played in the field. So there he goes for whatever

that's for you. I do share, you know, I think even Teneerans point less about, you know,

the fielding so much. But for a guy that, you know, we have seen have those kind of extreme

valleys. At times, I do think the ability to keep him fresh and healthy and apt his optimal,

you know, sort of his body feeling good. I do think that's important. It's important for everybody,

but I think especially with someone like Sayah, where we've seen just those extreme valleys,

that lack of confidence at the plate and, you know, sort of the hitting just vanishing for

a month at a time, not suggesting that that's due to him playing in the field. But I think if you

can find ways to make sure that he's fresh both physically and mentally, perhaps you can mitigate

those extreme outcomes a little bit more. I want to keep talking about the Chicago Cubs,

talk about the rest of the off season, we'll keep talking about playing time, talk about Cubs

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All right, Brennan. Back with you here, finish things off. So I think the the question becomes

now, right? We're not certain trade rumors. We're not even entertaining. They're not going to do it.

First you have to do it. Maybe matcha persists in these rumors if someone is desperate.

What finishes off this off season? Are they done? Should they be done? What else do they need to put

a pin in this? And I know it's tough right now because we're sorting through some of these

Alex Breggman contract details. But where do you estimate they are luxury tax-wise? And if there

were any remaining budget, what would you spend it on? Well, so the models for estimating luxury

tax thresholds, there is some room for error with what we see. If you go to MLB Cots, which I've

been doing this for years, you can easily see in Excel form how the CBA tax is calculated.

They give right now with Breggman's present day value and roughly just under 31 million AAB.

They give the cubs about two and a half million before or under that first year of the tax.

They, according to their models and their projected expenses, don't have the cubs exceeding

the tax right now. There is error in both directions. They were wrong in 2024 as were most

public models. And to our surprise, the cubs went over in 2024. So it's a possibility they are

already over right now. We just don't have the nuance of those calculations. They're likely

going to go over this year. You can't go throughout the season with trying to hope and pray you

can get through without any unforeseen additions. Now you do calculate guys coming up and down from

the miners and getting guys outside the organization. But the all likelihood is, at some point,

they will need to make moves and they will likely go over just a matter of how much as they did go

over in 2024. I don't think they're going to make any more measure moves between now and opening

day. I would be surprised and I would welcome that absolutely. But I believe they have everything

they need from a foundational standpoint to start the season with all gears going. And if they

make another move great, but I believe this is what you're going to get. Yeah, I tend to agree.

I think, you know, outfield depth potentially. You can never have too many bullpen guys.

They may bring us some of those alfuel guys on minor league deals and vice in spring training.

I'm blanking on his name right now. But the Dodger centerfuelter from last year, you know, he let

the ball get wedged in the wall in the world series. I'm forgetting his name right now. But he was

brought over on a minor league option for an invite to spring training. That could be one guy as

well. You may see more. Yeah. And you know, like I expect them to continue to load up on those

minor league guys, non roster invites, et cetera, et cetera. We've seen them have success bringing

some of those guys into spring training. But yeah, I mean, I think, you know, this is the

the Breggman move is obviously a huge swing. And that's that's following the Cabrera trade.

Like you've made some pretty aggressive moves to put this team in a really solid position.

And if you can continue the good work that you've done with your pitching infrastructure to

find those guys to help out Daniel Polensia in the back end of that bullpen and take on some of

those higher leverage innings, that's that's going to be the key exercise because that's that's one

area when we came into the season. We didn't know if they would maybe play in the deeper end of that

pool. They've added some guys to the bullpen, but I don't know that any of them are that absolute,

you know, high leverage late inning reliever type guys. The added five guys and

majorly deals to the bullpen hunter Harvey. Maybe the one guy they foresee is being that late

ending leverage guy sharing some roles in the eighth and ninth with Daniel Polensia. Hunter Harvey

has a high fastball has injuries to go with it. They gave him $6 million. They spent nearly

$30 million on the bullpen. If I were to ask you at the start of the off season, hey,

is he he's not with the nuts. He signed with the Dodgers.

You're kidding. Kyle Tucker signs with the Dodgers. You're kidding. I got a pass in. I got

Jeff pass in here live. Little mishazet. Didn't say it. Oh man.

I mean, we knew this would happen. It's it's just like so it's so predictable man.

When everybody says that, you know, early in the day, I'm like, oh, he's going to the Dodgers.

Did I not say that? When you hear the reports about, hey, the Mets have a short-term AV. Hey,

the Blue Jays made a long-term offer, but don't worry about don't forget about the Dodgers.

That was John Hayman's tweet like this morning. I knew I knew it. Well, yeah, and just like reading

some of those, you know, the the Mets are offering a shorter deal or maybe the Blue Jays will go to

the sixth year. You're like, if nobody's pumping up like an eight-year or something deal, the Dodgers

are just waiting around to all. What's the years? I don't see it yet. My phone just

is happening live on the year. My phone just died. I came to look this up.

Look, I think this does sort of tie back to, you know, when we were talking about

needing to do those deferrals, right? Like, if they're going to, now the CBA, I mean, good luck

with that. I don't know how they're going to sort through this, but like you, you have teams,

you have teams in this league that are. Short-term deal. Yeah, you have teams in this league that

are going to such extreme lengths to spend money and acquire all the best talent available.

You got to try as best you can to compete in that market. So if offering

Breggman a little bit of a deferral helps the Cubs do that, like, that's what you need to do,

because this is what we're all doing. This is what we're all dealing with. This is unbelievable.

I mean, this is like truly unbelievable. And you know, once they start having the

negotiations for the new CBA, like Dodgers are not doing anyone, anyone any any favors right now.

No, unfortunately, not that I agree with it. And we don't have to get into who's the real villain

in this situation, but them stockpiling talent like this is not going to yield a good result.

I don't think in the CBA. So all we know is a short-term deal. The year's not been announced.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's probably close to $45.50 million if I had a guess.

It's probably a three-year deal. It's probably Cody Bollinger's deal times 50%. Basically,

if I had a guess. Man, unbelievable, man. I knew it was going to be the Dodgers. I saw

Heyman's tweets. I know Heyman takes offense to it, but he's basically Scott Boris' assistant,

you know, I knew it was going to be new is going to be the Dodgers. But you know, on this is the,

yeah, go ahead. You know what? He doesn't play infield. The Dodgers don't have her infield depth.

No one has her infield depth. Doesn't take away Niko Horner. I'm sure the Dodgers want Niko Horner.

Doesn't take away. He has to be Swanson. They might have

a hundred of the best players in the world, but we've got gold gloves. So no, look,

I ultimately, as it relates to that, like, look, we don't play in their division. Cubs aren't in

their division. So it's a problem if you run into them in the playoffs and you deal with it then.

Like, I know it's frustrating. I think for fans, broader of the game and stuff like that,

I imagine there's a lot of Dodger fatigue that exists among, you know, casual fans and fans of

just the general sport itself. But as the Cubs are concerned, they got to beat the Brewers. Like,

you know, we're jumping ahead a little bit. Conquer the one beast first, right? And then you can

move on to the big one. But, you know, look, like, you want to win a championship, you're going to

have to play the big dogs in the playoffs. And luckily, winning the division and potentially getting

that by or dealing with that seating is not something that Cubs have to go through the Dodgers

in order to do. If I was a Padres fan, this would be a very different conversation. I think Brendan

and I would have had to step off the air. I'm not going to let this ruin my night. I'm not going to

let this ruin the day, you know, listen, here's the thing about baseball. The randomness can go

in both directions. And often it does. You can have a perfect run differential prediction, a perfect

run differential projection and still have an error of wins plus or minus four. So that's how dumb

this sport is. The Dodgers, they can have a year like the 2024 Braze. We have injuries, nonstop.

That's how baseball is. The Cubs could out produce their projections by, you know, one of those

top tier teams and win over a hundred games. That's how that's how baseball operates. So the Dodgers,

they just keep building reserves. That way they can offset some of these potential disasters.

That's why there's such a good organization. But, you know, baseball is weird. I'm not going to

let it ruin my day. Not our problem, man. Like it. If it becomes our problem, it means the Cubs

are probably facing them in the NLCS, which you know, right? Yeah. You have to go out there and

strike them out. Yeah, no problem. We'll deal with that when we get there and win the division.

But before we were worrying about the Dodgers, but I do, you know, it's a little bother. Like it's

just so predictable. I think like that's the thing. Everybody jokes about it. Like, oh,

he's a free agent. He'll go to the Dodgers. You know, though, wait around. We knew this was going

to happen. And they have no outflow taps. Anyway, wrapping it up, looking forward. If you're going

to CubsCon, I hope you have a good time. I'm sure the 2016 stuff will be a lot of fun. I believe

they were doing sort of a team-only celebration at Wrigley Field tonight. I saw the wonderful

Sam Bernero posting some pictures at the hotel of some of the guys arriving at some like my

gummery, Justin Grimm, Albert Almora. So good to see some of those guys again. And I'm glad they

get this moment, you know. Is Ross going to be there? I do believe he is going to be there, yes.

Oh, really? Because I didn't see his name on the thing, you know, at least at some of this stuff.

I did I did read that he would be there. That's cool. Yeah. And

Nichol Sheikah, Hosek Krakhansel's hand. Handshake 2.9. Yeah, I don't know.

He didn't do it. But yeah, and hey, look, Niren says, you know, we get the Dodgers draft fix. So

take that for the qualifying off of Kyle Tucker. Anyway, this is an exciting week for the Cups.

And it's been an exciting couple of weeks. They made some big swings. When we came into this off

season, I think if you would said they add some bullpen depth, they swing a trade for a cost-controlled

young high ceiling starter, and they sign a big time free agent like Alex Breggman,

that would have been pretty close to an a off season for Jed Hoyer and this front office.

I think this team looks really good heading into the year. And I'm very excited about it.

I'm thrilled with this move. I think Alex Breggman is a great ambassador for this organization

in this clubhouse. And I think he's equal or an even better fit for this lineup and just what

this lineup needed to help them grow and help them get further than they did in 2025.

So I'm thrilled with all of this. We'll see if they have anything else up there sleeve.

We're going to have to deal with some of these rumors still about some of our infielders.

And we'll see, you know, if somebody comes calling and makes an offer that Jed can't refuse for

somebody. But otherwise, I think this team looks very strong and has put themselves in a position

to be better than the Milwaukee Brewers, which coming into the off season was goal number one.

Leave the off season feeling like this is your division, at least on paper.

Gotta play the game, but it's been a minute. I think since we felt definitively that was the case.

And as we sit here right now, I feel like that's the case, Brennan.

Yeah, let's go. We got the pictures and catchers reporting soon. We got pictures from

Rich Bisterfeld already. The seasons are right under way Corey.

Don't forget to tune into our wonderful Bears team. They'll have you covered pre and post on Sunday.

They are the best in the business. Brennan and I will talk to you again next week. If you're going

to CubsCon, have a good time. Say hi to John Lester for me. And we will talk to you again next week.

As always, go Cubs.