China’s Calculus in the Israel-Iran Conflict: A Conversation with Mona Yacoubian and Tuvia Gering

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Ms. Mona Yacoubian and Mr. Tuvia Gering join us to unpack the latest escalation between Israel and Iran and explore how China is navigating this evolving conflict. They begin by situating the conflict in the aftermath of Hamas’s October 7 attack, which triggered a series of strikes by Iranian-backed militias that eventually led to direct Israel-Iran military confrontations. Ms. Yacoubian outlines how Israeli strikes were timed around a perceived window of Iranian vulnerability and rising concerns over Iran’s nuclear enrichment levels. Mr. Gering describes a significant paradigm shift in Israeli security doctrine after October 7, and the belief that Iranian threats, both nuclear and conventional, have necessitated preemptive action, especially with the current Trump administration’s backing. Ms. Yacoubian highlights the limited material support to Iran from Russia, North Korea, and China, and noted China’s preference to prioritize regional economic ties over military entanglement. Mr. Gering delves into the mixed Chinese domestic debates on Iran and explores unconfirmed reports of potential Chinese arms transfers to Iran. Finally, they assess what these developments may mean for China’s long-term role in Middle East security, including the possibility of a new security architecture that could include both Israel and Iran, and how Iran’s strategic calculations may shift amid growing isolation. Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). She has more than thirty years of experience working on the Middle East and North Africa, with a focus on conflict analysis, governance and stabilization challenges, and conflict prevention. She was previously vice president of the Middle East and North Africa Center at the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), where she managed field programming in Iraq, Libya, and Tunisia as well as Washington, D.C.–based staff. In 2019, she served as executive director of the congressionally appointed Syria Study Group. From 2014 to 2017, Yacoubian served as deputy assistant administrator in the Middle East Bureau at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), where she had responsibility for programming across Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq. Captain (Res.) Tuvia Gering is a China analyst at Planet Nine, a Tel-Aviv and East Asia-based tech company, a visiting researcher at the Diane & Guilford Glazer Foundation Israel-China Policy Center at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), and a nonresident fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. Previously, he was a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and the Israeli Chinese Media Center. Gering is the editor and author of Discourse Power on Substack, a newsletter covering leading Chinese perspectives on current affairs, and holds a BA in East Asian studies from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (summa cum laude) and an MPH in disaster and emergency management from Tel Aviv University (summa cum laude).