China's Response to U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls, with Paul Triolo and Kevin Xu

This week on Sinica, Paul Triolo rejoins the show for a deep, deep dive into China's response to American export controls on advanced semiconductors and related technologies. How much hurt has the policy put on Chinese firms — and how far along is China in finding its way toward technological autonomy? Kevin Xu, author of the fantastic "Interconnected" newsletter, joins to talk about some of the big ideas he's written about in recent months and to play co-host as we grill Paul on China's efforts to get out from under American controls.

9:10 – The downplaying of generative AI in the Third Plenum’s decision document 

18:25 – Why the Middle East is an appealing and important region for major AI players 

26:20 – Why chip wars have evolved into to cloud wars 

29:36 – How China has fared in trying to achieve its goal of indigenous advanced semiconductor manufacture

31:50 – Semiconductors: What lies within the “small yard” versus what products are unaffected under U.S. export controls

35:42 – The quality and reliability caveat to China’s goal of self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacture 

38:35 – The success of the Biden administration’s export controls and whether the controls have really put the hurt on anyone 

46:00 – The Harmony operating system 

47:47 – The importance of packaging 

50:45 – Paul explains what he calls “China Semiconductor Industry Policy 3.0” and its predecessors

57:03 – China’s EUV lithography challenge

1:03:14 – DUV lithography and multi-patterning, and the importance of collaboration across the ecosystemin the process of making semiconductors at scale 

1:11:50 – Huawei’s progress so far and remaining major hurdles and bottlenecks 

1:18:42 – Paul and Kevin’s thoughts on whether the American strategic class will regret its approach to export controls and whether there is an off-ramp 

Recommendations:

Paul: Ed Conway’s Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization 

Kevin: Thurston Clarke’s The Last Campaign: Robert F. Kennedy and 82 Days That Inspired America 

Kaiser: The House of the Dragon (2022- ) TV series 

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