Chuck’s Commentary - Blue Mirage, Blue Wave, Or Blue Tsunami? + Could John Fetterman Defect?

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4:30No, I'm not going to like make up just random days of the month where we claim to start a new season like my favorite cooking show chopped. Which has been on like 25 years, but claims I have like 70,000 seasons, which I never quite get. So it's in that spirit that you're here for the new season. The fall season, Labor Day. We kicking it all off. But there is actually a tiny bit of a schedule change instead of three updates a week that we've been doing through the summer. And I'm counting Super Tuesday, which of course is expansion. So now every day Monday through Thursday. Friday is now our only day. We don't have an intentional episode that we are dropping right here on the Chuck Todd cast feed. So on Mondays, you're getting what we're getting right now. Welcome to Monday, right? Labor Day Monday on Tuesdays will be Chris, the Liz and I breaking things down. Super Tuesday, very midterm focused podcast. I will now bring the Wednesday podcasts back for the fall season. And a lot of those interviews will be in some ways interviews that are sometimes a little off.

5:34The new cycle. Intentionally so because I think. Break Lee, it's just I've got a range of interests and. Hey, I've got a podcast with my name on it. So I'm going to share my range of interests where I think you two might learn something out of it. And our normal Thursday top five lists will go back to being on Wednesday. My college football preview. We'll be every Thursday. And yes, I am bringing back my college football recap on Monday. So here we are. It is Labor Day. I'm going to talk about the two things that are probably occupying my mind the most right now. At least outside what's happening in my own family and my own house. The sprint to the midterms and the start of college football. And frankly, I can spend a lot of time on both. And I will spend a little bit of time on college football here later in this podcast. But of course, I know why you're here. I know why I have subscribers. It is politics and it is the midterms.

6:36But look, I'm going to start with the midterms because we know the cliche Labor Day has always been the traditional beginning of the fall campaign of which it's because we change seasons that we can say that. But this campaign is not like it needs any amp in up. It's been going pretty much now and stop. It's a little bit quaint to say we're really kicking off the fall campaign win campaign season. Of course, never ends. But Labor Day still means something. The primaries are essentially over. We've got New Hampshire and Delaware on Tuesday, Rhode Island for whatever reason decided when today was the day they wanted to vote. And then we're done done. But it's worth in those three primaries we have. I'm actually pretty interested to see what is going to happen out of New Hampshire in particular. I've seen a lot of polling out of New Hampshire this summer and I'll be honest. I'm skeptical of just about all of it. Polling New Hampshire is always difficult. You don't know how many independence are coming in your primary versus the others. You can do really good polling and just be totally off on the number of non-democrats or non-Republicans that choose to jump in your primary.

7:42So it can really throw things off. So that's why I'm curious. I want to see. I just want to see the raw turnout. I want to see the Democrats continue what we've been doing. We talked on this podcast about the massive Democratic primary turnout advantage. We've seen around the country and why and I think of course it's one of the most important pieces of evidence we've gotten about the political environment. So New Hampshire is going to give us one last data point. Remember New Hampshire is a swingish state that Donald Trump can't seem to carry. There's a few swing states, Colorado, in my mind that are still swingy states. But they are just not swing states in the Trump era. Colorado for Virginia, New Hampshire fit that quite a bit. I expect one or maybe all three of them when it winner if the Republican Party pulls back from its nationalist direction that Trump has taken it. I could expect those three states perhaps to become a tad more competitive again. But I still just curious, right?

8:43And I'm interested in those Democratic primaries that will tell us just how intense is this. Fight from the left. Is there another sign of this progressive socialist adjacent energy that we've seen in some places as a show up in New Hampshire? Obviously that matters not just in this primary in these set of primaries. But it matters for 2028. Because New Hampshire is always one of the more important settings for presidential primary politics. And you know, just how bad is this establishment hangover? I don't expect Chris Papis, the sitting member of Congress who's essentially the agreed upon era parent there to Gene Shaheen who's decided to retire. I don't expect Papis to lose the primary, but what's the margin who turns out? Right? That's interesting. So let's see some votes. And then we're going to be done. We'll have the nominees and the rest of the fall campaign begins. We have now less than 60 days to election day. So simple question that I get asked now every day by somebody in my life. Sometimes it's family, sometimes it's friends, sometimes it's people I haven't heard from in about two years since the last election season.

9:49And it's the simple question of where to think Stan, where's this headed? Is there going to be a blue wave? So I think it's pretty simple. My answer is Democrats are ahead. We've spent enough time going through primary turnout numbers on my last episode of the podcast. I don't need to spend another 20 minutes on that today. The question I have on Labor Day isn't whether this is going to be a democratic leaning environment going into November. I think we've established that the question is how big of a democratic advantage is this environment going to have? And as I look at the map right now, I think there are three plausible outcomes that we should be preparing for. And I'm going to put them in my in the most pithy way I can. You've heard me say this before. I think in a few other. A few other places that I've either hosted like over on news fear or just participated in like over on CNN, which is blue Mirage, blue wave, blue tsunami. Essentially small democratic advantage, medium democratic advantage, large democratic advantage.

10:51These aren't simply different guesses at how many house seats Democrats win. They're different electorates. And that's what I want to go through today. The different turnout models. They're different answers to the question of what happens to the Trump coalition when Donald Trump isn't on the ballot. And look, these attention, these three potential outcomes, which I think are really the only outcomes we're dealing with here. We'll produce could produce three very different congresses. So let me start with the smallest one, the blue Mirage. And I think blue Mirage, I put it about a 15% chance of this being a blue Mirage. So what do let me define what I mean by blue Mirage a blue Mirage means we spent the entire year correctly identifying a democratic leaning political environment. And then watched it produce surprisingly small democratic advantages. Right. A blue Mirage may still show that the democratic enthusiasm advantage was real that the primary turnout advantage was real, that the unhappiness with Trump was real.

11:51But Democrats in a blue Mirage scenario would it would mean that they couldn't convert enough of that into actual seat gains. And remember the house math here, Democrats need just a neck gain of three seats to get to two 18 three. That's it. So in a blue Mirage, they're probably going to win the house. Right. Just like in the Republicans red Mirage of 22 maybe they get four or five maybe seven or eight, but it's probably under 10. So it's not a 2018 style house result like we saw in in the Trump first term. It's much closer to Republicans did in 2022. Just enough movement to take control. Right. But nowhere close to what you would have expected if you'd simply looked at the national political environment. And the Senate is where you will really see if this is a mirage, right. Maybe North Carolina still comes in, but Ohio doesn't Alaska doesn't Texas doesn't and maybe Maine is a coin flip.

12:51And then maybe Democrats, they could win or lose Michigan in this scenario, but it probably is keeping them up a night. And it's probably been a race that they've been on defense at the whole time. So you could end up with the with a scenario where Democrats essentially pick up a net of two Senate seats at best. Maybe they win three Republican seats and lose Michigan, but the net is two. So the question would be if a if we end up in a blue Mirage scenario, what's the explanation? How would it have happened? Well, there are a few ways we could get a blue Mirage. The first is simply the Matt. We spent the last year watching this extraordinary mid decade redistricting arms race. Republicans went into an understanding that they might be facing a difficult national environment for the midterms. So they tried to build themselves of sort of a higher flood wall, if you will. And in fact, you know, we're still we just got another court case last week that actually kind of muddy things up, right. We have a new asterisk on the map. It's Missouri.

13:59Missouri Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the over late last week that the Republican drawn congressional map cannot be used this November because a referendum petition suspended it. So now the old map from the 2022 that was used in 2024, but drawn in 2022 remains in effect unless something changes. And the state is now asking the US Supreme Court to intervene. It's kind of complicated here actually in Missouri because if they're going to throw out these lines, they held primaries based on the new lines. They didn't hold primaries based on the old lines. So you're really just assigning these nominees who won in the new lines. I mean, this is a total and complete mess, but it's a mess because the state elected officials who just wanted a partisan outcome here. Didn't you know, went out of their way not to follow the law in this referendum. And they seem to work they were hoping essentially to run out the clock. And they would just sort of jam this through and hope that even if the courts ruled that it was unconstitutional, then they would be forced to have special election, which I still think is going to end up happening in some form.

15:07And this, if this look, I'm very curious what the US Supreme Court does in this one because normally they stay out of if the states of Supreme Court rules unanimously and they're the ones interpreting the state constitution. The US Supreme Court's not going to involve there. So I don't think they're going to, but I think there's all sorts of voters could bring a lot. So it Missouri is now a total and complete mess. But if they use the old lines, it adds a democratic seat in Kansas City and probably puts a Republican seat in the suburbs of St. Louis in much more jeopardy, the Ann Wagner seat there, which actually used to be a dick at parts, old seat, if you're keeping score at home. And I shall see, but here we are on Labor Day weekend and remarkably, there's still at least one piece of the congressional map that has a frickin asteris to it. Heck if a job Republican party for for starting this mess and I know the Republicans say, oh, the Democrats started it in New York, a cycle before. I am not going to sit here and litigate who started the redistricting wars. Okay. But I can tell you these map wars of all this all goes back to Tom Delay.

16:16You really want to keep coming back and you want an honest referee, not a big 10 official, but an honest referee hint, hint where I'm going later in college football. If you want honest referee, I'm about this topic in the 21st century, this has been a Republican phenomenon in the 20th century, it was a Democratic party for now. So every party has dirty hands on this. This most recent effort has been a focal point of Republican. So let's see what happens, but it's a big structural piece that here we are less than 60 days and we don't know voters in Missouri don't know what congressional lines are going to be voting. But there's another one that I think is much more important. Look, the maps have mattered to sort of strengthen the Republicans were trying to essentially build their flood their their their sort of flood wall higher, right to see if they could. Oh, you know, overcome the surge that comes with a potential dominant blue wave. So, but the bigger more important point on this, if there is a blue mirage, the explanation is going to be money because this is a very different financial environment from the last couple of in terms.

17:21Democrats became accustomed in the early in particularly in Trump, one 2018 and again in 2022 of having a significant financial advantage, particularly at the candidate level, you know, candidate to candidate fundraising. Democrats much better at raising what are so called hard dollars, meaning direct contributions from people into the campaign itself, not super PAC money, not those dark money or anything like that. And as you know, and what a lot of people don't know that money, you know, the more hard dollars you have the greater the discount the advertising is. So it really has allowed that even though Republicans continue to have bigger donors contribute to their various campaign committees. Having that advantage on the candidate level. As allowed them to mitigate that and in some places have actually a TV advertising advantage, even if they were technically outspent just because their dollars essentially went further based on the law. Now, of course, there's a spring court ruling that's going to allow somehow political parties that are coordinating with their candidates get those same low rates. So it may allow some of this dark money to see into this.

18:33And it's a it's a reason why I think Republicans are dealing in a different environment this time that gives them a bit of advantage. So so look, it's not the financial environment of financial environment that Democrats had that was essentially advantageous to them in 18 and 22 is not here this time. There's not a lot of and it's not because the Republicans have somehow suddenly built a democratic style small donor machine, the democratic small donor machine is still there. But what the Republicans have done is make up for it with some just absolutely enormous checks, particularly from two worlds, tech and crypto. When you look at the money that's sitting out there mag a ink, right has more than $400 million primarily from tech and crypto Senate leadership fund 240 million congressional leadership fund, which is the house super pack. The Senate leadership fund should be obvious what that is, but the congressional leadership fund is the house super pack. They have roughly 140 million. And then you start going through the dark money groups, you go through the individual donors, the tech billionaires, the crypto money, the checks are enormous. Literally, the Democrats have George Soros, the Republicans have like 17 people giving the same amount of sorrows.

19:37So it's kind of why I think the Republicans Soros arguments kind of lay in flat super flat these days outside of the super right wing base because frankly, it's Republican Senator the party of these big billionaires now. And it's something that I think a lot of Republican candidates are nervous about. So this is becoming one of the great counterfactuals of the 26th election can Republicans spend their way around a bad political environment. Notice what I said there, not change the environment. He said, actually, you can't buy a new national mood, but you can save a candidate in Ohio. And maybe you can save one in Alaska. Maybe you get you keep Texas from totally getting away from the GOP. Maybe there are four to six house members who otherwise would have gotten swept out that you can save. That's all you need to go from wave to Mirage here. And what are they going to spend all that money on saying, I think there's going to be two basic messages that they're going to have one is going to try to do whatever they can to get the mega vote to turn out.

20:37And we'll see and two, they're going to try to make independent voters nervous about Democrats. And that's where we get to the third ingredient in the blue Mirage, the Democratic brand. This is still an unpopular political party. And that's important to remember here because sometimes I think people look at Trump's numbers and assume that every voter who is unhappy with Trump. As therefore, become enthusiastic about getting the Democrats as the counter. Those aren't the same thing. You found this spring that 59% of Americans had an unfavorable view of the Democratic party. 59. Republican party was basically in the same place, 58%. So somehow Donald Trump's enormously unpopular. But the Republicans and the Democrats are viewed almost identically unfavorably. There's no advantage that the Democrats had. That's not the way things were. Right. It's quite different from 2018. The Democratic brand was considerably healthier heading into that election cycle. And that's the openings Republicans have for this one.

21:39Take all this money, spend September and October saying, okay, you're angry at us. We get it. But do you really want them, the Socialists, DSA, do you want to arise and crime again, immigration chaos at the border? You know, throwing the whatever culture issue that they believe will simultaneously scare an independent and motivate a mega voter. Maybe it's trans women and sports. I don't know. And if that works just enough, don't have to work a lot, but just enough. Suddenly, a Democratic year produces a small Democratic result, the blue Mirage. Maybe one or two Senate seats, games, maybe five to 10 House seat gains. Yes, they get the speakership, but it ain't governable. And then probably have a Democratic House that starts behaving like the Republican House we've seen now. Hey, this episode of the Chuck Todd cast is brought to you by Ethos. Look, let me tell you about life insurance. As you know, ethos is an incredible portal for helping you find the right life insurance policy.

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26:45We're making it clearer for you to know exactly what your benefits cover. And to help you better manage your health, we're coordinating care between your doctors and your technology. We believe better, simpler healthcare is always possible. That's healthy optimism. That's Optum. Visit Optum.com to learn more. Now let's get to the second possibility. The blue wave. This is the easiest one to define. Basically, the political environment we're seeing right now is real and it translates. The turnout advantage that we've talked about is real and it translates. Independence really are moving away from Republicans. An amenable chunk of the Trump electorate doesn't show up when Trump isn't actually on the ballot. This is where I think 2006 is probably a useful comparison here. People remember 2006 is this giant Democratic wave and it was in races that were won. Democrats won the House by winning 40 seats.

27:47They won the Senate by winning six seats. But here's the thing about waves. They don't always necessarily mean that everybody wins by double digits in each individual race. A wave can be a whole bunch of close races that all break in the same direction. Karl Rove almost sounding like Kevin Bacon in the end of Animal House. Remain Karl all as well. I remember Karl Rove making this argument right after the 2006 results. Essentially pointing out how relatively few votes distributed differently across a collection of about six Senate races at about 15 House races could have changed the outcome. Now Rose point at the time was extraordinarily defensive. He was trying to prove this wasn't a full review. I think given what happened in 2008. It was a full review. Karl and I think he knows that now. But at the time that was what he was argument and the numbers backed him up a little bit. He was just desperate to get people don't over read the election. This doesn't mean that we're in the middle of some realignment.

28:48We were in the middle of some realignment. But I digress. But I do think that nugget actually tells us something important about what a wave can look like. The close races stop behaving like individual races. That's what happens in wave environments. They start behaving like a national election. It's almost like a school of fish. Everybody's swimming together. There's no it's really hard to sort of get away from the school of fish swimming around. That's a wave. So what would that mean? What would a blue wave mean? Translated into this election cycle. North Carolina comes in Ohio comes in for the Democrats. Maine comes in. They hold Michigan. And they probably win both Alaska and Texas or at least one of the two. In the house, you look at places where Democrats had been competitive before. Places that they were very competitive in at 12, 14 and 16. Whether Democrats won them or lost them. Right. But they were competitive. Well, those places start to come back. You'll get an early test in Virginia.

29:48Not just in the Virginia Beach Swing district that always seems to go with whichever direction. The winds blowing, but also the first congressional district, which is suddenly getting more or even the fifth congressional district, which have pieces of Charlottesville in it. So in a wave isn't Democrats splitting the genuinely competitive seats out there. A wave means they win most of them. Right. Like take Iowa. You're not just taking one of the three targets. You're probably winning two of the three. And maybe you win all three. Those Texas house seats that were drawn because Republicans thought they'd won over the Latina vote. Those all probably stay blue or go blue. California and their remap ends up benefiting the Democrats. Right. This is the max millers of the world don't survive in a blue wave environment. It's not Democrats winning in places where Democrats have no business winning though. That's going to be in my next category and I'm going to get to that. But a wave is Democrats winning virtually everything that was reasonably available to them to win. That's why I'm pretty fascinated by the Republican midterm convention in Dallas later this week.

30:50Because I think we're about to see the Republican answer to what they think. At least what they think the answer is to what is going to be a turnout problem. They have one. Right. We've seen it in the primers. Republican voters are not showing up. So we know what the focus of this convention is going to be about. This is the first ever Republican midterm convention. Trump is speaking twice on two nights. JD Vance is speaking. You have most of the sort of Republican leadership that's not in too much of a swing area showing up. Doesn't appear to be showing up. But I'm curious. I don't want to assume who's going and not going for sure. Let's get the actual attendance. But it is. I'm not surprised to can't pack into schedule to speak. I am a little surprised that a mic Rogers out of Michigan. I want to go. I'm a little surprised that John Houston out of Ohio is going. Again, let's see what they say when they speak. Because I think the intention of this convention is pretty obvious. It's fire up the base.

31:50I promise you. This convention is not going to be geared toward swing voters, which is why I question why some of these swing state Senate Republican nominees are showing up there. Or because who are you talking to? I know you need your. You do need both swing voters and the base to turn up, which is probably. The trap that's. I think impossible for many Republicans to deal with and navigate. Right. If you need. Trump space to turn out. What it takes to get them to turn out is going to turn off the swing voters that you need. And yet. And so in some ways you need to let Trump deal with your turnout problem. And you should only deal with the swing voter problem. But some of these. Guys feel as if that Trump is when we know the way Trump he is. He doesn't give anybody a pass unless they're Susan Collins. And he's going to feel that you don't come kiss the ring. He's not going to come help you. But I do question who's the persuadable independence sitting at home on a Wednesday and a Thursday night thinking you know what I really want to watch tonight a political convention.

32:51Not when there are two NFL games on. So look, they're not going to be speak even if they wanted to speak to independence. They couldn't have scheduled this on a worst on on two worst nights to talk to independent voters. They're not this is all about one of two things. Making Trump feel better that he's relevant and important. But to seeing if they can do anything to get this mega base to show up. So this is a base event. And I suspect we're going to get a lot of culture war stuff. A lot of fear of the left. A lot of socialism and communism talking points. A lot of whatever they think reminds the Trump voter why he or she needs to show up even though Trump isn't on the ballot. So it's going to be interesting. Quite curious to see if any Republicans attempt to counter program. Right. Some of them. I mean, we know it looks isn't Collins knows she can't go. I mean, it would be a death sentence for her politically if she showed up there. But it everybody that is in the sort of marginal Harris districts or districts at Biden carry that maybe Trump won back.

33:56But or Harris came awfully close. None of them are going. And he's not going to be a black nun from the the moindest district. He says he's staying in his district wants his commodity who's already got a tough fight in Arizona. He says he has a debate and he's going to miss it. So political surveyed 70 Republican candidates and found 45 either weren't planning to attend or hadn't decided. So I am very curious what kind that is Trump going to punish anybody that doesn't come. So I am very curious who shows up and it'll be interesting and we'll hopefully have a roll call of stuff later in the week. But there are really two different questions for Republican candidates as well. Do you want Donald Trump? And do you want Donald Trump's voters? Right. Those aren't necessarily the same answer. And the whole Republican mid-student strategy may depend on figuring out how to get the second without creating problems for some candidates with the first. Right. And Trump has another problem. He's better politically when he's the counter-puncher.

34:58When he's got somebody somebody or something to run against. When he gets to be the outside. When voters want change and he's the available vehicle for change. That's how he's won his elections. That's how he's been most effective. But when he's been the incumbent, he's been terrible at this. See 2018. See 2020. Right. Now he's having to defend the status quo. And that means Republican candidates have to defend what's happening. Take a wrong. JD Vance's messaging on Friday was just horrendous. Right. For anybody who has to campaign on this. He's debating whether we should call it a war. Donald Trump throws in that the troops that have been killed in this war. Because it's less than 50. It's somehow small potatoes. Who the hell says that? That's somebody who served in uniform. Imagine the outrage on the right. Had a Democrat said anything remotely close to this. I know Trump is graded on a curve with his own voters sometimes. And the lack of outrage and the hypocrisy of it might start to have.

35:59Start to wear down on independent voters who are just exhausted from just this constant. Be essing that comes from that side of the aisle. But. We're going to debate calling it a war. He's talking about that there being no active shooting while the United States actually engaged militarily with a wrong. And the within the same new cycle that Vance said that head scratching thing. So forget the semantics debate here about whether this is a war or not. Imagine you're a Republican candidate at a state fair this weekend. And somebody asked you are we at war? When does it end? Why did gas prices go up? What's the answer to an incumbent problem? Right. And somehow JD Vance is trying to claim well, it's not as bad as it could be. It's not really a war. I'm not sure if it's going to be an end, but it's not fair to call it okay, brother. Good luck with that. All I know is that when you are on the other side, any any any democratic president that did any launched any sort of military excursion even for 10 minutes was contributing to the forever war.

37:07So what is this? Mr. Vice President. Then there's the economy and affordability. And then of course, there's the issue that listeners to this podcast. No, I've spent a lot of time talking about data centers. Be like I that I've been an early warning system for some of you on this issue. And now you're seeing it everywhere, right? There's no longer a sleeper issue. It is a real political problem because AI sounds abstract. But the data center in your community raising your electric bill. That's not abstract. Right. Water is an abstract. Some gigantic facility appearing down the road isn't an abstract idea. What's particularly interesting to me now is how you're beginning to see Republicans responding to the same anger. And that's when you know an issue is crossed over. And why I think Republicans have a harder time on this issue, even though they think if they just flip on it, they can mitigate the damage with with independent voters. I'm not so sure.

38:07Right. When pop, but you do know it's a it's a lethal issue, right? When politicians from the other party start feeling like they have to get on your side of an argument because their own voters are telling them the same thing. Right. Look at Ohio and Texas in particular. This isn't simply a Democratic talking point anymore. And this gives Democrats another way to make this election about affordability, right? Groceries housing gas electricity. Right. Groceries in housing all directly with Trump's terrible tear of policy. And gasoline, this war of choice with Iran electricity. His decision to essentially look the other way and let the tech companies do whatever the LA want, right? It is not hard to connect all those things very quickly. It's a pretty potent basket. Now Democrats have their own problem in a wave scenario too. And it's a question that I've been wondering about, which is what are they offering? I understand why Democratic leaders I've been reluctant to put out some grand agenda contract with America six for six, which is what they put out in 2006.

39:08Part of it might be strategic, right? Why give Republicans something to campaign against or to shoot at when the election is currently a referendum on the party and power? Right. Don't get don't get in the way of that messaging perfectly reasonable strategy. But I also think there's another reason they won't put anything on paper and agenda could divide Democrats themselves. Right. Put 10 things on a piece of paper and suddenly the fight isn't Democrats versus Republicans anymore. It's Democrats arguing over which five things belong on the paper and which should be discarded. Right. So I get the hesitation. My God, look what happened to Jeffries for just having a conversation with Kushner, right? He is and look at the ridiculous response to Jared Golden and Marie Gluson camp Perez because they wanted to get a bill that Jared Golden cared about to the floor for a vote. It just shows you Jeffries is no Pelosi here. He doesn't have Pelosi now, Pelosi at 20 years to sort of earn earn the right to essentially put members in their place if necessary, cut deals with them, whatever it is, Jeffries does not have that kind of poll or hold over the caucus.

40:14And I don't know if anybody could in his defense. But you're seeing right if he offered up something, it might make his challenge even greater. I'm half convinced he's going to be calling Kevin McCarthy for therapy tips. If he heads up speaker at our blue Mirage scenario, but I digress. But there's a risk by not putting on an agenda and Democrats and here's the risk. Eventually you're asking independence not merely to fire somebody. You're asking them to hire somebody else. And don't you need to give them something to make them feel comfortable. Maybe I'm wrong here. And maybe they don't. And sometimes wave elections, right, work that well. It's 74 Democrats. They they just simply said not Nixon, right? And that was enough. Now let's talk blue tsunami. I'm guessing it's the headland that got some of you here. That's the third possibility. And it's not remote. Right. If I've got blue Mirage in a, I really think of my three scenarios, blue Mirage, blue, blue tsunami.

41:21Blue tsunami is not the least likely. Blue Mirage is the least like. I think blue waves the most likely. So if I'm going to put them in sort of percentages, right? My pie, I think 15% chance it's blue Mirage, about a 50% chance it's blue wave where they they win both House and I don't think you can call it a wave if they don't win both the House and the Senate. Okay. And then blue tsunami. So let's get to the blue tsunami. I think it's in the one and three range, so 30 to 35%. So how do I define tsunami easy? We're suddenly talking about races we weren't supposed to be talking about. It's as simple as that. A wave means Democrats win almost everything that was reasonably available. So now may means the definition of reasonably available changed. Now we're talking about Kansas. Maybe it's a sweep of both governor and Senate there. Now we're talking about Nebraska. Maybe the independent candidates in Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, one or two of them come in. Maybe we're talking about South Carolina or Mississippi because a supercharged black flow combined with a tepid MAGA turnout is a recipe for an upset in one of those two if not both of those southern states.

42:31And we're not talking about Texas said anymore. That's table stakes in a tsunami. Texas said it is no longer the interesting question. The interesting question becomes Texas governor. Is that a coin flip on election night? That means we're in tsunami territory is Florida governor uncalled at 10 p.m. Because it's that close to that 2018. That's tsunami territory. Do Democrats win all of the races in Iowa? The three house seats Senate and governor? That's tsunami. Are there places that right now during Labor Day weekend everybody looked at and said, come on, that's not happening. I'm looking at you South Dakota Senate looking at you Kansas Senate. And on election night, we're sitting there waiting for the returns and going, Jesus, we got it. We haven't gotten everything in from. From which Utah we need to wait for which a top before we could call Kansas, right? Like that if we're having that conversation. We're in a tsunami.

43:32And the turnout recipe is pretty simple. Supercharged Democratic turnout independence breaking heavily for the for the Democrats and magazine home. All three of those have to hit you get all three at extraordinary levels. And that's how the map expands beyond the places that we're currently spending most of our time on. Like Ohio and Texas and Michigan and Alaska that that that's the that's the competitive landscape. That's the 35 to 35 yard land landscape. So tsunami means we're talking Kansas Nebraska South Dakota Mississippi South Carolina something like that Kansas, go I would go. Total sweeps in Texas and Ohio for the Democrats and Senate and go. If if this scenario is happening, what else has to happen? Well, I think something else does have to happen to get a tsunami beyond those three things I sketched out the corruption issue has to break through.

44:38You know, it's interesting here. We've been waiting. I think corruption is sort of underneath all of this, right? Trump's almost daily corruption. Right. The paying for, you know, pardons are for sale sale like it's just sort of matter of fact, right? Everybody kind of knows the government's for sale. And this is what he does. And there's really no pushback on it. And for Trump, it's a feature, right? He this was the reason he likes tariffs is not because he's a protectionist. The reason he likes tariffs is because he can use it to either coerce people to do his do his bidding for different reasons. Or he makes money off of off of giving them relief. Pure and simple. It's no different than Tony soprano. But for the tsunami to happen, I do think corruption has to become closer to being a top three issue. Now weirdly enough, data centers, maybe the most tangible way into the corruption argument, right? I have the Republicans become the sort of the party of data centers because tech decided to buy off the Republicans all over the country. They wanted to buy regulatory certainty or regulatory capture.

45:50By the way, some Republicans have been uncomfortable with this. I want to shout out the governor of Florida, Rhonda Santas, been to the few people to push back on this White House. No, no, no, no, states should be involved in all of this. You know, we got to have light regulation on these guys. And you know, there have been some Republicans who realize that's not going to fly with most of the public. But there's a lot of money to be raised if you do it that way. And tech decided, no, this is the, I think the strategic mistake being tech made is they thought capturing politicians were going to get them what they wanted. I don't think they, you know, they just completely ignored the the electorate backlash here. Right. I mean, you know, it sucks about this is at the basically the tech industry. I'm looking at you Elon Musk and Mark entries and impeter teal in particular. You've already come to the conclusion that the voters don't are meaningless in this project of yours. I can't tell you how fricking insulting that is. You went to the politicians to buy them off rather than going to the public to make your case. And the public is telling you fuck off right now. They're that pissed off about this.

46:55And it's all because of how you've went about it. Politicians, yeah, they're easy marks. They're always you just wave around $100,000 and yeah, you're going to get a whole bunch of politicians and you may have to capture a whole bunch of politicians. But if you looked at how in popular politicians are, did you really think capturing politicians and capturing the regulatory was somehow going to appease the public. Oh boy, you, you're and maybe you think, well, we're getting what we want, regardless of how in popular we are. I'm not sure. Let me know what you think of those subpoenas when they start coming in Mr. Teal, Mr. Intrison, all of these folks, all of these folks that I digress. It's been an enormous amount of tech money coming into politics, right? Crypto money the same thing, right? The genius act was for sale. Pure and simple. So this is why I think the data center issue gets potentially gets the corruption issue closer to the top of voters minds.

48:00Because you can, you know, corruption hits a lot harder if you can connect it to your problems at the moment. And those guys are doing that. And I'm paying more in electricity. Well, that MFR just raised, you know, pocketed a million dollars and his son or daughter suddenly gets to run their own crypto exchange. Are you shitting me? That's what happens. Right. And so this is, I think the ingredient that's been missing so far. I have not seen a coherent corruption message yet from that I think is broken through. Now, part of it, maybe you're just never going to break through as well as the pocket push, you put issues are breaking through. And I think that's a fair point. But the ability to connect all these dots is sitting right there. Right. And I think that's something. I think that's something that's just just waiting to be it's a, it's a fuse. It's just it's that's your prairie that's your prairie populist wildfire there.

49:03And it's how a corruption narrative develops. But it makes the abstract more tangible. This episode of the checktide casting is brought to you by Fandall baseball fans. Think you know who's hitting a home run today? Well, Fandall is giving you a free chance to call your shot with daily dares. Joining the action is easy. You just make your free pick on who's hitting a home run and their get. And if you're right, you'll get a profit boost to use on your next bet for a chance at extra winnings. You've got nothing to lose and you get a lot to gain and don't forget you can make a free pick every day during the MLB season. It's just another reason why Fandall is the home for home runs. So are you ready to play your game today? Join all the action at fandall.com. That's fandall.com to play daily dingers and make your free pick on who's hitting a home run. Playball and swing for the fences on Fandall and official partner of the MLB.

50:03It's a 21 plus and select states for Kansas and affiliation with the Kansas start to see no it's 18 plus and DC Kentucky Wyoming. If you have a gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or 1 800 my reset or call 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7. You can also visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. You can visit the MD gambling help.org in Maryland for help. You can visit gambling help line ma.org. You can call 800 327 5050 and Massachusetts. You can call 1 8 7 7 8 hope and why or you can simply text hope and why New York in order to get some help with any gambling concerns. Finally, you can also call 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 7 8 6 7 if you're in Louisiana. This is Ashley. I can Eddie from the almost famous podcast. You ever notice you and your spouse keep saying we need to get away, but you never actually plan anything.

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54:23All the self serving stuff. All of these things that individually can look silly or narcissistic suddenly become part of a larger story that voters tell themselves. These people are in it for themselves. That's when that issue becomes more politically dangerous. And that's one of the things I'm going to be watching. If we're trying to distinguish wave from tsunami. I think it's corruption. It's about whether corruption actually becomes a voting issue. Not just something that pops when you ask it in a poll, but something that is volunteered from a voter before you even has to ask them. Because if it does now you've got affordability dissatisfaction with the president, the war, democratic enthusiasm, independent movement and a corruption narrative all reinforcing each other. That's how you get beyond a normal way. Right. That's watergate 74 shed. But there are a lot of reasons to be cautious about that. So I'll come as well. Okay. The democratic brand problem doesn't magically disappear. The ideological fights don't disappear. And Republicans are going to spend enormous amount of money. Make it your voters know about every Democrat they can associate with socialism, DSA or whatever else tests best.

55:35So the question is whether independent voters are as frightened by that argument as Republicans hope. And I'm not sure that they're they're going to be easy to convince on this issue. Remember why Donald Trump became possible in the first place. A lot of voters were willing to experiment because they were so fed up with those that were in charge. They were so fed up with the current trajectory of things. They wanted something different, even if it was risky. Particularly care that the establishment told them this was risky. Donald Trump's risky. So perhaps an independent voter looks at Democrats fighting over their future and says, oh my God, socialism. But perhaps some look at it and say, oh, at least they're arguing about something different. That is one of the big unknowns of the next 60 days, right, is whether the attacks on the Democrats for having these different views. What if it's not the negative that Republicans think it is in the same way that all the arguments that Democrats made in 16 and 24 about Trump, he's all these risks. Well, to the voter that wants change, change is risky.

56:43And the risk may it and change may be so worth it. You're willing to take a risk. Republicans have won this way. They could very well lose this way. So what am I watching? That's the board as I see it on Labor Day, Blue Mirage, 15% blue wave, 50% blue tsunami, 35%. And what's useful about setting it up this way is that now we have something to watch against for the next two months. We'll start this week. New Hampshire forget the polls for a second. Show me turn up. Then we have that midterm convention. Watch the convention. Who shows up, which candidates do? Who intentionally doesn't show up and makes a big deal that they didn't go? Right, because they want voters to know they didn't go. Who gets the microphone and what do they say? Which Senate candidates do want to get caught standing next to Donald Trump? It tells you they have more of a base problem than swing voter problem, right? And which ones want to be 1500 miles away? And most importantly, what is the message coming out of there? How culture worry is it? Is this essentially two nights of trying to scare the bejesus out of the Trump coalition into voting in a midterm?

57:49If it is, that's telling us something about Republicans themselves think their problem is. Then you get to watch the money. The Republicans have a lot of it. We're going to find out what they can actually do with it. Does that money change the shape of the electorate? Can it turn out mega voters who don't normally vote in midterms? Can it make independence who are unhappy with Republicans just nervous enough about Democrats that some of them don't make the leap? Does it save two Senate seats? Does it save six house seats? Because remember, that's all it may take to turn what feels like a wave into a mirage. Then watch the affordability issue, not simply the economic numbers that Washington likes to talk about. But what are voters actually talking about? Groceries, housing, gas, electricity, and then watch the data center issue? How much more does it become part of the conversation? Does it get connected to corruption? Because if I'm right about this issue, it's not going to, it's not going away over the next 60 days. It's likely to continue to get bigger. Right? Because we're still nervous about this whole AI transformation. And then we'll watch independence. This is ultimately where I think we're going to find the answer.

58:55An independent voter who's who's voters? Are they just simply unhappy with Trump? Or they decided it? And they're so unhappy, they've decided to vote Democratic? Those are two different things. If they're unhappy with Trump. But skeptical enough of Democrats that they split their tickets, stay home or come back to Republicans after $500 million worth of advertising that scares them about Socialists. That's how you get a blue mirage. If they break towards Democrats in the places where Democrats are already competitive, they help accelerate the wave. And if they break decisively enough that we're suddenly talking about races, we weren't talking about on Labor Day. There's your shit on it. And then we have to watch Mac. Because I keep coming back to this. Donald Trump is demonstrated an extraordinary ability to turn out people for Donald Trump. What he's never demonstrated as consistently as an ability to turn those people out when he's not on the ballot. And that's the experiment Republicans are running one more time. They have the money. They have the messenger to talk to those voters in Trump. Right? They don't listen to anybody else. They're trying this convention. So we'll see.

1:00:03If they succeed, this election could look a lot smaller than the underlying political environment suggests. And if they don't, it means no amount of money could have stopped this wave. That's how unpopular Trump has become. And in a second term sometimes, that's a bigger deal. No amount of money can save you. So that's why I think these are the three easiest categories to understand. Blue Mirage, Blue Way, Blue Sonami. I'm not trying to tell you in Labor Day exactly how many house seats Democrats are going to win. And I'm not trying to tell you exactly what I think the Senate numbers going to be. The war can change in the next 60 days, right? We know that what could happen in 60 days? Perhaps the straight is actually truly open before election day. Maybe the price of diesel meaningfully drops in the last two weeks of October. Maybe can the economy itself change that much? Maybe the price of gas. I don't know about the price of ground brief. The tariffs are still everywhere. Right? Candidates can make mistakes too.

1:01:07There will be some debates, not as many as we're used to. And there'll be scandals we haven't heard of yet. And then who knows? Like we found out in Missouri, we could have one more court case that we hadn't thought about that screws up a map one more time. But I do think we know what the three likely outcomes are. It's small meeting or large. That's where I think we are in Labor Day. And beginning Tuesday, we get one final little bit of evidence out of New Hampshire. I want to learn something there. And I think there's something to learn. As I've said. But the spring is on. And we're going to spend the next 60 days figuring out which of these three elections we're actually living through. And we'll get deeper into some of these races. I'll give you specific house races to watch that are mirage candidates, wave candidates and tsunami candidates. It's going to be a fun 60 days if you're a political junkie. But if you care about the direction of the country, it's going to be an anxiety filled 60 days no matter which side of the aisle. That you're on. All right. Before I get into my quick college football stuff.

1:02:09And before I leave the Senate board entirely, I do have one more question. Call up my code to this. And it's about a Senate seat that isn't even on the ballot. Pennsylvania. I'm sure many of you have already at least read excerpts. If not the entire Wall Street Journal reporting on John Federman this weekend. And boy is it a story. Frankly, it's a story of a senator who staff has decided he doesn't even want to do the job anymore. That for whatever reason, maybe it's health issues, maybe it's laziness. We don't know the answer. He's just not doing the job. And this entire Wall Street Journal story is a reminder. It's his staff that every one of those anecdotes had to come from inside the call came from inside the house. Right. They talked more than a dozen former staffers. They reviewed internal messages and the text messages were just terrible. You know, funeral was too long to stay in through things like that. And obviously Federman's angry and he said, you know, these are, you know, different staffers. So I'm reading this thing and I'm reading his response to it.

1:03:17And you know, here we are. I've spent an entire hour here giving you these different scenarios. And I've been messing around with the Senate math a lot, a lot. How do the Democrats get to 50 or 51 seats? You know, what's the firewall seat? You know, Michigan, et cetera. What's the pickup? And then I'm now asking myself a question that isn't actually on anybody Senate map. Is John Federman going to be a Democrat on January 3rd, 2027, the day the new Congress is set to be sworn in. Right. And now, by the way, he could leave the Democratic Party, staying independent and still caucus with the Democrats. Or he could leave the Democratic Party, becoming independent, decide to caucus with the Republicans. Or maybe doesn't caucus with either party. But he did not, you know, who knows, maybe does it still give the, you know, we don't know what the math is. But Federman has become now one of the Democratic parties, most persistent internal critics. The base of the party hates him. Hell moderate Democrats every pencil any Democrat, it seems to be anger with him.

1:04:23He's repeatedly now broken with party on major issues. And this new reporting paints a picture of somebody increasingly detached from the institution and increasingly alienated from his own Senate colleagues. So you got to put the question out there. Is Federman the ultimate insurance policy for Republicans to hang on to control the Senate? Of course, if that happens, I'm very curious about what Lisa Murkowski would do in a situation like that. But either way, it's pretty clear that even after election day, we may have two Senate seats. We're not quite sure which side of the aisle they'll end up wanting to sit on. One is the senior senator from Pennsylvania, Mr. John Federman, and one is the senior senator from Alaska. Ms. Lisa Murkowski. All right. Now, before I get to my conversation with Bruce Melman, I thought I would do my few of my college football thoughts here.

1:05:27Well, obviously I was relieved to watch my university, my Americans on Friday. But let's be honest, what is the big story of the weekend turned out not to be pro players playing an LSU or Clemson boycotting having to play LSU, although now I think Debboswini wishes he would have came up with a principle to not have to play that game because Clemson football has got humiliated and they're in deep, deep trouble. But that is not the biggest story of the college football weekend. You know what? Here's to the actual games overcoming all the bullshit off the field stuff. Western Michigan, who did not score. It was all like it was just field goal after field goal. It was a miserable game. I had it on my four box, and you're just going, what is going on here with this Michigan Western Michigan game. Right. And it was just sort of like just was watching at it. And then at some point, you know, because you had some of these other games at Boise State, Oregon game was fantastic. Even Auburn Baylor, while horribly played, seems like every time you turn around another quarterback was throwing an interception.

1:06:29It was competitive and interesting. And it was sort of kind of what you had expected it. I feel like Baylor and Auburn are in about the same place, although Baylor feels like they have a down arrow and Auburn feels like they have an up arrow. But they're kind of like it's like they're meeting each other on the way, you know, and so you do it was going to be super close and super competitive. But look, I was watching it live and I thought, whatever anybody else thought I watched the NBC broadcast. And it was pretty clear to me that there were zeros on the clock I was watching. And I thought game over. Okay. Shockingly big 10 officials who were in charge of Michigan's home game against Western Michigan. Just found one second on the clock. Now they apparently have shown enough evidence of this that even the the commissioner of the Mid American conference, the Mac that were Western Michigan. They're satisfied with the answer. Western Michigan is satisfied with the answer. We're not going to get some, you know, state judge and Kalamazoo asking to overturn the result.

1:07:32Although I'm sure that's coming if if if some fan wants to do it. But it's it's certainly in an era where we don't trust our institutions. Wait a minute. I know what I saw. Then there's something about a sinking clock. So for all of this to be correct, it may mean that there's 10th of a second. So as my producer Lauren Gardner said to me before we started taping goes, maybe the college football in the NFL needs to do what the NBA does in the last minute of a game, which is show the 10th of a second. Right. We now know zero zero point three, right, three 10th of a second is long enough to get a shot off. Right. So that's something we've learned over time with the NBA clock stuff. Well, perhaps both the NFL and college football have to have to now. During the last minute and all the broadcast have to do that is we need sort of an honest accounting. But there's one other issue here. Look, we're in an era of distrust of all institutions generally. And now that sports, even college sports, there's so much embracing of gambling, so much embracing of the prediction markets.

1:08:39If any of this stuff is thought to be bought off or rigged, the entire system collapses, which gets me to among the 7,000 problems college football has. I do think there's a massive credibility problem on officiating. There's I'm sure plenty of good officials. But right now all of the officiating is handled by the conference level. And so for instance, if you basically pay a team to play you, which is what Michigan did, they paid Western Michigan to play them. There's no home and home. Right. When you do Michigan Oklahoma, Michigan's not paying Oklahoma. To play Oklahoma next week and Oklahoma didn't play Michigan for mid to play Michigan last year. Right. The home and home is the exchange of goods, if you will. Right. Each, each school will profit and benefit from the game. Because of the visiting association. And in these, in these, and there are some practices in these supposedly when you have big, you know, big 10 playing SEC, then you're going to have either big 12 or ACC officials.

1:09:46And if you have like you had big 12 playing the ACC in Ireland, you're supposed to have big 10 or SEC officials. Because they're worried about the idea that there might be bias or the perception of bias. If they didn't think there was bias, would they bother with doing that? Right. The answer is no. There used to be sometimes there used to be an accepted practice. I believe where the visiting teams conference would be the officials, which is another way of trying to balance things out. Right. You have a home field advantage. Right. The officials, if they're from the same conference might, might be unconsciously bias towards the home crowd. Right. There's certainly plenty of evidence that that is true in college basketball at times. This is Ashley Akinetti from the almost famous podcast. You ever notice you and your spouse keep saying we need to get away, but you never actually plan anything. That was us until we did something fun and spontaneous. We went to resort pass.com. There are hundreds of hotel resorts, pools and spots and private beaches that you can enjoy.

1:10:57You can spend the day at a luxury resort, pool, spa, massage without booking an overnight stay. And listen, I may have only been like 15 minutes from home, but it felt like it was a whole different world. And I'm thinking this is exactly what I needed. So just go to resort pass.com, choose your resort, choose your day, luxury resort day passes start at just $25. Once you post your daycation, people are going to ask where you are. Go to resort pass.com slash almost famous and use the promo code almost famous to get $20 off when you spend $100. That's code almost famous at resort pass.com slash almost famous. What it sounds like when you road trip to the I heart radio music festival in the all new Hyundai Palisade Hybrid. Wow, this is really nice inside. The Palisade Hybrid has more luxury than ever. Wow, this sound system is awesome. Turn it up. More tech than ever. Sweet. You got the available built in dash cam. And more range than ever because the Palisade Hybrid gets up to 600 plus miles of range on a full tank.

1:12:01So do we ever have to stop for gas? Hyundai USA.com or call 5 6 2 3 1 4 4 6 0 3 for more details. This is Tony A.O. from the real report with Tony A.O. and Uncle murder. You haven't noticed how everything keeps going up. Rinse going up. Streaming services are going up. Even your favorite burrito spot. Suddenly think salsa should cause extra. But with boost mobile, you and your phone bill don't have to play the Willis go up soon game because boost mobile has an unlimited torque, text and data plant at a price that'll never go up. It's the same price you'll pay for life, meaning you're set to never worry about your bill increasing again for as long as you're on the plan. While the world keeps finding new ways to nickel and dime you, boost mobile gives you unlimited wireless at one set price for life. Imagine something in your budget actually staying the same. You'll pay the same for unlimited wireless when you're posting mirror selfies in your 20s and when you're posting mirror selfies in retirement. Some things never change. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up only at boost mobile.

1:13:01After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on a boost unlimited plan. Healthcare can feel complicated. That's why Optum uses technology to connect the people and processes that make healthcare easier, more affordable and more effective. We're making it clearer for you to know exactly what your benefits cover. And to help you better manage your health, we're coordinating care between your doctors and your technology. We believe better, simpler healthcare is always possible. That's healthy optimism. That's Optum. Visit Optum.com to learn more. But we got to have a better officiating system. The conferences shouldn't be in charge of officiating because no one's going to trust these conferences. These conferences are financially, you know, can afford, you know, they can't afford a Michigan lose to a Mac team that could cost them one extra that could cost them a slot in the cause of a playoff, which costs the bottom line revenue.

1:14:02So, you know, you could make a case that the big 10 officials were were sort of incentivized to find a second if they could. So, come on guys of all the things to clean up. Let's create. And this is where they, you know, if you want to generate more fairness in the way games are officiated. We need to have a college football, a NCAA college football, FPS, whatever, maybe it's FPS. All right, or you want to put the power for and they create their own, maybe the college football playoff runs the officiating association and they do all the hiring. Maybe you have two associations, the power for the rest of FPS, maybe you have one. But you need to come up with a better system that's more transparent that isn't run by the conferences. I'm sorry, you cannot trust the conferences. And I know you think each conference will say, well, we're not, you know, it's not an art. Well, you know what, we've already seen conferences behave with their self interest first.

1:15:14Sometimes they're not not all the time, but more times than not. So it's pretty clear to me. You know, the reason why I'm every explanation is going to be just not going to land with me 100% with this Michigan business because I know the big 10. There's a lot of entities that were incentivized to find any which way to give Michigan one more shot at winning the game. So it's a bad look. I'm sorry, I feel this way. I'm sorry. I'm sounding conspiratorial. But they themselves, these institutions have been so poorly run. So financially incentivized. So filled with making decisions based on who gives them the best financial advantage versus what is fair and proper. I'm sorry, you don't have, you don't have the benefit of doubt from me. And this is only going to lead to more concerns. And so this is why take this away from the conferences.

1:16:14These officials should work, you know, the NFL, can you imagine, right? If the AFC East had their own officials, the NFC West had their own of course not silly. It's ridiculous. Well, it's silly and ridiculous on the college level. And in some ways, having a very controversial decision like this one. Right. So the two quick, the easiest reform is to go to the 10th of a second clock system where everybody sees it. So at least there's some transparency there. But the bigger issue is the conferences should not be in charge of officiating. Sorry, you know, for the same reasons why the conferences have screwed up. Remember, they have screwed up college football. We all watch Nick Saban all weekend saying that Congress needs to do this. And by the way, Pat McAfee, your foe outrage, you know, about about Congress going home. I promise you if Congress were more worried about the college, you know, dealing with college athletics, instead of lowering the cost of ground beef, they get their ass is handed to a bivotors for all another reason.

1:17:20So no, you know, you get to sound like your Mr. Man of the people, Mr. McAfee. And look, I, there are times I enjoy you. I think we're all a little, we're all a little over served on our McAfee these days. The little Pat McAfee goes a long way. I don't need all Pat McAfee all the time. God bless your brother, although I'll do the kick if you want to ask. Um, but I'm sorry if if you're, I get it's easy to bash Congress and it can make sports fans feel good. But if they actually prioritize dealing with college sports instead of everything else, like the war in Iran and the high cost is please, please. By the way, I don't know about you guys. My favorite part of college game day is every once in a while they cover college football. I'm teasing guys sort of my goodness. I feel like there's fewer and fewer segments devoted to the game itself and a lot more segments devoted to the culture or the fun and it's fun.

1:18:24And there's nothing like Gabe Day on these campuses. My daughter's been involved. My son. They love it. I get it. It is a ton of fun. But for those of us watching that TV, we do it in a little more preview of the games themselves. I'm not saying I'm just saying. But hey, I get it. All right, a few other reactions from the weekend. So let me make my case. Why? Miami had the most impressive, you know, Miami and most arguably the most impressive win of the weekend of the of the action of the top 10. They won on the road in a conference game across the country. Now, I'm not going to tell you that Stanford is a really tough environment playing. It is not their fan base is such a strange fan base. They rarely show up. It is a quirky, you know, there are Stanford football fans that are obsessed, but not enough to fill that stadium, no matter who comes to town. I guess Cal might be the one that they that they fully sell out for.

1:19:28But if you look at everybody else and I will confess I'm doing this before I'm taping before the Notre Dame Wisconsin game, but I don't even consider that a road game. You know, I promise you these neutral side I've been involved with neutral side Notre Dame games. They're Notre Dame home games with a few more tickets allocated to the other team. And yes, they may be playing in Lambo field, but it'll be at worst a 50 50, but what I promise you it'll be a Notre Dame crowd. But look, if Notre Dame wins by the margin that Miami won, then I'd say that that both Miami and Notre Dame had the had the equal wins of the first weekend. And I think both Miami and Notre Dame of the pro you could make a case there two of the three best teams in the country. I think I get why both Miami and Indiana were the were not in the top five right every team in the top preseason top five Ohio State. Oregon Georgia Notre Dame in Texas all had one thing that neither Miami or Indiana had a returning quarterback right Miami and Indiana had the new quarterback so you had to wait and see well, I think we wait and saw in both Miami and Indiana may have quarterbacks that are better than the quarterbacks and last year.

1:20:38There were times that Hoover looked better than Mendoza. I'm not going to Mendoza's leadership is something that's an intangible hard to measure. There's no doubt that Mensa. This is the most potent Miami offense I've seen since 2000 and 2001 and to that those teams were incredibly potent offensively meaning you just knew every time they had the ball they were scoring a touchdown. And if they didn't it was because of some holding penalty and fortunately kick a field goal, but that would be about it right it was in Malachi Tony. If I think it's pretty clear there is only one. You know the high school is going to be one either by a quarterback or Malachi Tony. Sorry Jeremiah Smith. I don't think you're going to have near the amount of attention that Tony gets look at the way the already Tony's getting the coverage that Travis Hunter got at the very beginning of his high season, which is every game preview. I would argue Darian Mensa of the two who one guy has more touchdown passes and incompletions 27 for 30 for touchdown passes three incompletions through for over 400 yards.

1:21:41So there's a reason why he's generically right now the Heisman front runner. But Tony had one of the greatest days in Miami hurricane history for receiver and he only played to what two thirds of the game. So it is you know I'm not saying Tony's got to win the Heisman you're still more likely a quarterback that still got a 70% chance of winning the Heisman but I think if it's not a quarterback. I think at this point Tony is your most likely candidate not in quarterback candidate there. So look I, but I'm going to be honest I'm a little nervous that Miami's in ability to get quarterback. I'm a little nervous that we couldn't generate the past rush we could have a little nervous that our running game wasn't as punishing as it was towards the end of the last season and all throughout the college football playout. I'm chalking it out. I'm going to chalk it up to a young offensive line that has a veteran quarterback that I can essentially take you know mistakes on past protection, which we have great running backs and not a past protect.

1:22:43So and Stanford clearly stacked the box they had had seven or eight guys in the box almost every play and you're going to do one on one with Miami's receiving core. You saw what happens if you do one on one with Miami's receiving core. So I think there's I'm okay. I'm the running side. I think it has more to do with how Stanford just made a decision to try to keep us from running the ball. Okay. I think they were curious how much we throw the ball. We'll throw the ball quite a bit. The big weak point, supposedly is Miami Atlanta actor that kind of showed itself a little bit. My friend Mark Caputo said, you know, if you judge Miami just by this one game. The recipe for defeating Miami is a team that can control the ball is a team that can grind out a long five to eight minute drive those five to seven minute drives. Probably the only team on our schedule that can that can do a strategy like that is no today. So we'll see it's setting up. I'm already looking forward to November 7th. Other things look organ as two new coordinators. I'm not going to sit there and say they're no longer national title contenders.

1:23:48Boise State their biggest game of the year. They care about the game a lot more than organ did. So I think it's, you know, I'm still never till organ breaks through you're not going to be a believer in organ, right? It was like Indiana till they actually broke through you weren't going to be a believer organ to me still sits in that same spot. Right until they actually win a title. Right. They've just never gotten there. They always seem there's always a part of the yet. They're just a little bit are they are they just too soft. I don't know. I say look great. Georgia look dominant. Texas look great, but we'll find out about Texas in Ohio State next week. That's for sure. I have more to say about that as well. Look, games that I watched very closely besides the Michigan games, besides Boise and organ was the Alabama game. And I was impressed with the quarterback. They do seem to have a real running game. I thought he's Carolina, you know, was going to keep it say within 20 and a half points and I was wrong. So this is a good reminder, by the way, current issue of current episode set of episodes of diagnostic. I got none other than Paul fine by now with J.A. Donda and I.

1:24:55And you should take a listen to the conversation in general, but do stick around for his comparison where he asked the question could Alabama become the next Nebraska. He did not say that because he was offering a compliment to Alabama. So it's definitely where but I will say this. Alabama was not on the road to being in Nebraska on Saturday. I'm not at all. Look, the team that I most. But I think the team, the best team in the SEC is not in the state of Texas or in the state of Alabama or in the state of Georgia. I think it's in the state of Oklahoma. In fact, if I was going to make a way too early prediction. I think if Miami makes a playoff, they're going to have to get through Oklahoma to win the national. I think Oklahoma is going to be that good. And I think when they blow out Michigan next week. We're going to start to have a lot of conversations about what's wrong with Michigan and whether did Harbaugh only win by just breaking every rule in the book. And then suddenly they can't win any other way.

1:25:57That's a it's an uncomfortable question to my fans of the Wolverines. Are whispering to themselves at the moment that they're not quite ready to say it out loud because they got their reprieve with the extra 10th of a second that the big 10 officials found. But boy, that's coming. But who knows, hey, the biggest sleep teams make are from week one to week two, right? This is Ashley Akinetti from the almost famous podcast. You ever notice you and your spouse keep saying we need to get away, but you never actually plan anything. That was us until we did something fun and spontaneous. We went to resort past calm. There are hundreds of hotel resorts, pools and spots and private beaches that you can enjoy. You can spend the day at a luxury resort, pool, spa, massage without booking an overnight stay. And listen, I may have only been like 15 minutes from home, but it felt like it was a whole different world.

1:26:58And I'm thinking this is exactly what I needed. So just go to resort past calm, choose your resort, choose your day, luxury resort day passes start at just $25. Once you post your daycation, people are going to ask where you are. Go to resort past calm slash almost famous and use the promo code almost famous to get $20 off when you spend $100. That's code almost famous at resort past calm slash almost famous. What it sounds like when you road trip to the I. Heart Radio Music Festival in the all new Hyundai Palisade Hybrid. Wow, this is really nice inside. The Palisade Hybrid has more luxury than ever. Whoa, this sound system is awesome. Turn it up. More tech than ever. Sweet, you got the available built in dash cam. And more range than ever because the Palisade Hybrid gets up to 600 plus miles of range on a full tank. So do we ever have to stop for gas? Visit Hyundai USA dot com or call 5 6 2 3 1 4 4 6 0 3 for more details. This is Tony A.O. from the real report with Tony A on Uncle murder. You haven't noticed how everything keeps going up.

1:28:03Rinse going up. Streaming services are going up. Even your favorite burrito spot. Sully thinks salsa should cause extra. But with boost mobile, you and your phone bill don't have to play the Willis go up zoom game because boost mobile has an unlimited talk, text and data plan at a price that'll never go up. It's the same price you'll pay for life, meaning you're set to never worry about your bill increasing again for as long as you're on the plan. While the world keeps finding new ways to nickel and dime you, boost mobile gives you unlimited wireless at one set price for life. Imagine something in your budget actually staying the same. You'll pay the same for unlimited wireless when you're posting mirror selfies in your 20s and when you're posting mirror selfies and retirement. Some things never change. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up only at boost mobile. After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the boost unlimited plan. Healthcare can feel complicated. That's why Optum uses technology to connect the people and processes that make healthcare easier, more affordable and more effective.

1:29:09We're making it clearer for you to know exactly what your benefits cover. And to help you better manage your health, we're coordinating care between your doctors and your technology. We believe better, simpler healthcare is always possible. That's healthy optimism. That's Optum. Visit Optum.com to learn more. It's a time machine time. Let's press our buttons and see where it takes us this week. We're going back to September 8th, 1974. No, Matt. I'm not celebrating the birth of you. That's my cousin Matt. He was born that day. No, we are looking at September 8th, 1974 for another reason. Some of you may know exactly what I'm referring to. We're looking back more than half a century later, what may have been one of the biggest mistakes in the legal history of the American presidency. Gerald Ford's pardon of Richard Nixon.

1:30:09Now, that is not how history has taught us to think about this decision. In fact, almost the opposite. For most of my adult life, the conventional wisdom surrounding the Nixon pardon has become remarkably subtle. Gerald Ford did something courageous. So the story goes, something selfless. So the narrative has been written. He knew it might destroy him politically, but America had been through enough. Watergate had consumed the country for two years. Vietnam had consumed us even longer. And this decent man from Grand Rapids, Michigan decided somebody had to end the National Nightmare. Eventually, we gave him an award for it in 2001, the John F. Kennedy Library. He gave Gerald Ford its Profile Encourage Award for pardoning Richard Nixon. And Ted Kennedy presented it to him. That was significant because Kennedy, who was a senator in 1974, had been one of the pardon's fiercest critics. 27 years later, at the ceremony, Kennedy says, now we see that President Ford was right. Well, I'm here to argue maybe he wasn't. Maybe we rendered that verdict too soon.

1:31:17Maybe the Americans who were furious about the pardon in 1974 understood something that two generations of political and historical group think eventually talked us out of. The voters are always wise. And in this one, they were wise. Because more than 50 years later, I think we ought to ask a very different question. What if Gerald Ford's pardon of Richard Nixon didn't reinforce the idea that nobody is above the law? What if it undermined it? And what if the decision that looked like healing in the short term helped create a much bigger problem in the long term? That's the question I put into the time machine segment this week. So we're going back August 1974. Richard Nixon's presidency is collapsing. The evidence is devastating. The tapes have exposed Nixon's participation in the Watergate cover-up. The House Judiciary Committee has approved articles of impeachment already. Supreme Court unanimously ordered Nixon to surrender the tapes. But ultimately Nixon is resigning for the most fundamental reason that politicians usually leave office. He has lost his political support. He didn't leave because he had broken the law. He left because he had lost support. Public opinion had collapsed. Republicans are staring at the 74 midterms that are less than 100 days away in August.

1:32:35And they can see what Nixon is doing to them. And Congressional Republicans start abandoning it. Barry Goldwater, Senator Republican leader Hugh Scott, House Republican leader John Rhodes famously go to the White House. They tell Nixon what he already knows. Nixon, when Peggy understood with politics, the votes aren't there anymore. He's going to be impeached and the Senate has the votes to remove him. His own party will not save him was essentially the message. And so in August 9th, Richard Nixon chooses resignation as opposed to a trial in the United States Senate. Gerald Ford takes the oath of office and Ford is in an extraordinary position. He is the first president in American history who was elected neither president nor vice president. He was never elected. Remember how he got to the vice presidency, Spiro Agnew, who was elected twice as vice president, 68 and 72, had resigned the vice presidency less than a year earlier in a completely separate corruption scandal than my old friend Rachel Maddow did a terrific podcast on.

1:33:37Nixon appointed Ford to replace it because at the time everybody kind of knew, hey, you need somebody squeaky clean. Gerald Ford was squeaky clean. The Nixon resigns because of what? So Gerald Ford becomes president because scandal and corruption have removed both members of the ticket that Americans elected in 1972. And in his first remarks as president, Ford gives us one of the more memorable lines in presidential rhetorical history. Our long national night merit is over. It's a great line. But in retrospect, it tells us something important about Gerald Ford's mindset because Ford has already reached a conclusion. America needs to move on. And 30 days later, he decides that he's going to make sure American moves on Sunday morning, September 8th, 1974. Ford goes on television from the Oval Office and he announces that Richard Nixon will receive a quote, full, free and absolute pardon for every federal offense Nixon committed or may have committed.

1:34:38During his presidency. Think about what that means. Richard Nixon has not been indicted. He has not been tried. There has been no presentation of evidence before any kind of jury. There has been no verdict. There has been no sentence. Investigators have not even finished determining the full universe of potential criminal conduct. We don't know if there was of a crime was committed. And Ford pardoned all of it. Ford explains that the Nixon tragedy could quote go on and on and on. And then he says something that more than 50 years later deserves, I think, a lot more scrutiny than we've given it. He writes, he says this, someone must write the end to it. And I have concluded that only I can do that. Why? Why Gerald Ford? Who appointed Gerald Ford to decide when America had had enough accountability? Because there was another way to write the ending. It's called the criminal justice system. Investigators, prosecutors, a grand jury, defense lawyers, a judge, evidence, a jury.

1:35:50And then eventually a verdict. For just about every other American, that's how we decide whether somebody committed a crime. And Richard Nixon was now a private citizen. The Constitution actually anticipated this. Impeachment doesn't substitute for criminal accountability. An official removed through impeachment remained subject to quote indictment trial judgment and punishment according to law. Nixon avoided removal by resigning, but resignation didn't erase potential criminal liability. And this wasn't theoretical. The Watergate special prosecutor, Leon Jaworski, was already considering criminal proceedings against Nixon. The Watergate grand jury had already named Nixon an unindicted co-conspirator. And Ford himself would later acknowledge that there was quote a distinct possibility that Nixon could be indicted for obstruction of justice. So whatever uncertainty existed about other possible offenses, Ford knew this wasn't an empty exercise.

1:36:50There was a serious potential criminal case sitting in front of the Justice Department. The legal machinery was moving. And the pardon stopped it dead in its tracks. But before we judge Ford from the comfort of 2026, I'm going to give him the strongest possible version of his argument. So it's easy for me to backseat drive this from here, given everything we've learned. But I do want to take a minute to point out what America was like in September 1974. The president, a month early, had resigned in disgrace. The vice president before Ford had resigned in a corruption scandal. Vietnam had been a national trauma and we were trying to wind that sucker down. The United States is approaching what will become the humiliating final withdrawal from Vietnam. Saigon would fall eight months later. The Soviet Union is still a superpower with nuclear warheads pointed right at us. Cold war is very much alive. And we're not certain we're winning it at that moment in time.

1:37:52There's an Arab oil embargo that has shaken our economy. Right? Outside forces making our economic downturn even worse. Inflation is just brutal. Americans have lost faith in their government. Thanks to Vietnam and Watergate. And the rest of the world is watching what looks like an extraordinarily weakened United States of America. And now imagine another year, maybe two of Richard Nixon's investigation and indictment of trial, AIDS, former AIDS testifying more tapes, more evidence. The former president of the United States sitting in a criminal courtroom while the Soviet Union and the rest of the world watch America prosecute the man who had been its commander in chief just weeks earlier. And so Ford wasn't inventing the possibility that this could drag on. Four days before the pardon, Jaworski told Ford's own council, Philip Buchen, that simply selecting an impartial jury could require nine months to a year, perhaps even longer.

1:38:53Jaworski would later publicly describe the pardon as legal and timely. So I'm not going to sit here and say it was an easy call. Ford looks at all of this and says enough. We have to govern. We have to demonstrate stability. We have to get the country moving again. And it's a strong short term argument. It really is. The question is what America gave up to get that stability. And here's where the story I think becomes a little more complicated because the argument that Ford should have allowed the process to continue before deciding whether mercy was appropriate is not something we invented 50 years later. Congress put that choice directly in front of him and Ford considered it any rejected on the record on October 17th, 1974. And this was extraordinary that Ford did this. And more in only adds to the list of things he's that you're like put on the list of boy, that is a commendable thing to do. You know, which is Gerald Ford went to Capitol Hill, a sitting president appeared before the House judiciary subcommittee to explain why he pardoned his predecessor.

1:39:58He allowed himself to be questioned by members of Congress over this decision. Good for him. I wish more presidents had the guts and the balls to do it. It was an extraordinary. And if you want to understand why the historical verdict on the Nixon pardon deserves another look, listen to what Congress asked for that morning. Because you know, all of the stuff that I'm now looking back on going, what the frick were we thinking? Members of Congress asked these questions then. And Ford was forced to answer some of them. So I'm going to go through. Congress and Wiley main of Iowa walks him through the roads he could have taken. Why not wait until Nixon wasn't died it. Why not wait until he was tried and convicted and then pardoned him? Why not wait until he was convicted and actually sentenced to prison and then decide whether to commute the sentence. Ford says he thought about exactly those alternatives and then he explains why he rejected them. Time. He says waiting for indictment possible conviction, a conviction plus a jail sentence would have taken at least a year and probably much longer. It's from the transcript. And during that time he says the president in Congress would be prevented from getting to the other problems facing the country.

1:41:03And so there it is. Ford knew there was a pro he thought there was a process first option. He consciously rejected it because the process would take too long. And that distinguished matters because Ford wasn't saying the process was illegitimate. He wasn't saying prosecution would be unconstitutional. He was and he wasn't saying it was going to clear Nixon. He just said the accountability would be too disruptive. Congressman James man of South Carolina asked Ford about the ten possible areas of investigation identified in the special prosecutors material. Did the pardon terminate those investigations of Nixon he asked and Ford answers. I think the net results of the pardon was in fact just that yes sir. Right. Man's question is very specific. All of these Nixon investigations come to a sudden stop because of the pardon. Now Ford separately tells Maine that he had no intention whatsoever of stopping investigations into any other defendants or potential defendants.

1:42:05He said the exception is Nixon. That the justice system continues for everyone else, but for Richard Nixon it stops. But there's another exchange in this congressional testimony that makes this even more striking and Ford's prepared statement that morning. He explains how he intends to handle pardon requests from other people connected to Watergate. He said they should go through the justice department. They should submit their request through the pardon attorney. The request would be evaluated on its own facts and Ford says he will not decide those cases based on what he calls the unique circumstances on quote of Richard Nixon. So Ford himself is essentially making the case that presidents should be treated differently. Which as we know is a is a road that a bunch of us wish we never went down. Ford is laying down a process for everybody else involved in Watergate. But then it's a different story for a president later in the hearing the chairman of the committee William hungate asked for it.

1:43:07Did you or anyone representing you contact the federal pardon attorney about the customary procedures for issuing a pardon to Richard Nixon and Ford admits that he didn't. So in the same statement on the morning, Ford tells America here is the process everyone else should follow Richard Nixon did not follow it. He gets a separate process and then Congresswoman Liz Holzman of New York presses another institutional point during Ford's vice presidential confirmation process the year before she notes that Ford had discussed the importance of the attorney. Generals judgment and connection with a possible pardon but Ford's own prepared statement that morning had already conceded I did not consult at all with the attorney general on the subject of a pardon for Mr. Nixon. It doesn't prove corruption and it doesn't prove a secret bargain. But it does tell us the extraordinary this Nixon exception was the ordinary pardon process wasn't followed the pardon attorney wasn't consultant Gerald Ford made the lone judgment. Because he believed Nixon circumstances were unique.

1:44:10Then Holzman presses him on the constitution itself she points to the language saying that even an impeached official remains liable to criminal punishment under the law. Ford says he is fully cognizant that a resigned president remains accountable for criminal charges. Fully cognizant doesn't mean you buy the rationale right he said look the country has other problems the president as other problems congress has other problems continuing the Nixon matter will distract America from them so Ford understood the competing principle. Congress put it directly in front of him and he decided something else matter. Then congressman Don Edwards of California asks what may be the most important question of the entire hearing because Edwards takes all of this constitutional theory and turns it into something anybody can understand. Listen to the entire exchange I'm going to read it verbatim. Edwards Mr. President put yourself in the position of the high school teacher shall we say in Watts or the burials of San Jose or Harlem and if you were such a teacher how would you explain to the young people of America that American concept of equal justice under law.

1:45:12And Ford answers Mr. Edwards Mr. Nixon was the 37th president of the United States he had been preceded by 36 others. He is the only president in the history of this country who is resigned under shame and disgrace. I think that in and of itself can be understood can be explained to students and to others that was a major major step and a matter of I am sure grave grave deliberations by the former president and it certainly as I have said several times constituted shame and disgrace. But Edwards isn't finished Mr. President do you think that it is wise to pardon a man before indictment or trial for offenses that are completely unknown to you and which might possibly be terribly serious. Ford well as I indicated Mr. Edwards I did to the best of my ability check with probably the best authority in the country on what if any charges would be made against Mr. Nixon.

1:46:12Those were or potentially were serious charges I think that in taking the action I did concerning those charges I was exercising in a proper way the pardon authority given a president under the Constitution. That's the entire exchange. Edwards asks about equal justice under law and Ford's first answer is shame and disgrace think about that shame isn't a criminal sentence. Discrace isn't a verdict losing your job isn't the criminal justice system and what happens when somebody could care less about shame. No way we would elect the president who was shameless would we. So for virtually everybody else in America resigning because evidence emerges that you may have committed a crime doesn't settle your criminal liability. Imagine a bank president saying yes I've been accused of embezzling the money but I've resigned in shame. Haven't I suffered enough. That's not how this works. Then Congressman David Dennis hardly a Nixon antagonist helps Ford make the point even more explicitly he asked whether Ford believes Nixon's resignation itself constituted quote sufficient strong punishment to answer concerns about equal justice under law and Ford answers that is correct sir.

1:47:28There it is. That's satisfying political punishment substituted for legal accountability. Ford also argued that accepting the pardon carried an implication of guilt. There was legal precedent behind that argument but an implication attached to accepting clemency isn't a trot. It is an evidence tested by the defense there's no findings by a jury. There's no judgment of conviction. And those distinctions matter if what you are trying to establish is that the president is subject to the same legal process is everybody else nobody is above the law in this country unless your president Richard Nixon and Donald Trump seriously folks. So did the country really want Ford to stop this. This is another thing that I've always been uncomfortable with about this decision. Gallup was polling Americans from September 6th through September night Ford announced the pardon on September 8th. Most of Gallup's interviewing occurred before Ford acted so it wasn't simply backlash to the pardon.

1:48:30Gallup's own summary of the survey says 58% favored prosecuting Nixon for possible crimes. The paper 38% who favored letting him off with a pardon. Gallup separately asked another question if Nixon were tried and found guilty should Ford pardon him. 38% said yes 53% said no. So even after a conviction you still have a majority not wanting to see him pardoned wanting him to go to jail if he was convicted. So both questions basically had the same result they were different questions should there be a trial and if the trial produces a conviction should there be mercy. Most Americans wanted the process to continue and most weren't yet convinced that mercy should follow under either circumstance. So who exactly was exhausted was it Washington? Yeah. Was it Gerald Ford of course he needed to establish his presidency how about the Republican party. Republicans were heading into the 74 midterms with Richard Nixon hanging around their necks. They had just been forced to abandon their own president.

1:49:31They desperately needed to turn the page. Those were pretty powerful incentives but Ford wasn't elected by the country to make this judge. He wasn't even elected vice president to make any judge. He inherited the presidency because the two men who had been elected president and vice president were both gone amid separate corruption scandals. And now this unelected president had decided that the country had experienced enough of the Nixon process. The public reaction was brutal. Ford's approval rating had been 71% mid August because he was not Nixon. It was 66% in that Gallup survey. It drops to 50 by the end of September by January sitting at 37%. Ford's own press secretary resigned over the decision to pardon. Because suspicions exploded that somehow Ford and Nixon had made a deal. Ford denied it. Eventually Ford of course loses in 76 and narrowly to Jimmy Carter arguably over the Nixon pardon. But then something else happened. Time. The anger cooled, watergate receded. Slowly the historical verdict changed.

1:50:32And in 76, 55% of Americans still told Gallup that Ford had done the wrong thing. But by 82, the country was evenly divided and by 86 of a slight majority 54% decided that Ford had done the right thing. And eventually the political establishment essentially closed the case. Ford had sacrificed himself to heal America. That's the story. It was statesmanship. It was courage. And in 2001, the Kennedy Library gives the Ford the profiling courage award. Ted Kennedy says now we see that president Ford was right. But what exactly had we seen? That America survived. Sure. That watergate eventually disappeared from the front page. Yeah. That Gerald Ford was a decent man who believed he was acting in the national interest. I don't have. I think he was. I think he thought he was. I don't doubt that. But he did. You know, the best thing for him to unite a Republican party behind him was to do the part. And I think that's an inconvenient truth. As another vice president might have said. But none of those things proves the pardon was the right decision.

1:51:34And maybe 2001 was simply too soon to render this verdict. History didn't stop. For two generations, we repeated that watergate proved nobody was above the law. A lot of the system worked, right? The press work, Congress work, the courts work, the Supreme Court. Republicans ultimately stopped protecting a corrupt president. You think the evidence came out? Nixon lost support. He resigned. Right. Everything seemed to work. But the criminal criminal justice system never got a chance to finish the job. At the precise moment that America had the opportunity to establish that a former president could become a private citizen and answer for possible crimes committed while in office. Gerald Ford stopped the experiment. Then we spent 50 years telling ourselves the experiment succeeded. Think about the other watergate defendants. The cover up trial began less than a month after Nixon received his pardon. John Mitchell went on trial. HR Hallamann went on trial.

1:52:34Erickman, Martyon, Kenneth Parkinson. Four were convicted. One conviction was later overturned. People who worked for the president went through the criminal justice system. The president they worked for did not. That's the president that Gerald Ford set. And of course America was going to have to confront this question again someday. And it took almost 50 years and Donald Trump. And I'm not asking you to assume that Donald Trump committed crimes simply because prosecutors charged him with crimes. But see, this is the point. We don't have federal trial verdicts. We never got them. Trump was federally indicted after leaving office. And immediately America discovered how many basic questions about presidential criminal accountability. We had never answered. Kenneth former president pre-precicuted for things he did while president. Which presidential actions are immune? Which or not? What evidence can prosecutors use? What happens when the former president is also running for president again? And what happens if he wins?

1:53:35Trump argued that the prosecutions were politically motivated. He asserted immunity. The immunity case eventually reached the Supreme Court. And in 2024 the court held that a former president has absolute immunity from criminal prosecutions for exercises of his core constitutional authority. At least presumptive immunity for other official acts and no immunity for unofficial conduct. No wonder JD Vance, who himself needs a history lesson about Watergate, somehow thinks that Nixon and Watergate were small potatoes. This was not some obscure academic debate. But we turned it into one. America is trying to determine in real time the rules governing criminal accountability for former president. And of course him running for president again created another complication. But remember he announced his candidacy for office to create that conflict.

1:54:35So they could use right by him announcing it suddenly became political. But all of this stuff was happening before he was ever running. But here we are. His opponent argued that allowing a candidate to escape prosecution because he was running for office would itself create a different kind of immunity. And then Trump won. And then everything got dismissed. We have no federal case. We have no idea. Again, I'm not saying for sure that Trump was guilty. We don't know because the process never played out. But this by the way, we also don't know if Trump was innocent because this process has not played out. So look at the dilemma we've created. You don't federally prosecute a sitting president prosecuting a former president inevitably raises concerns about political retaliation. If that former president runs again, prosecution becomes intertwined with an election. And if he wins, he becomes president again. And the federal prosecution cannot continue while he is sitting in office. So what exactly does this process happen? When is no one above the law?

1:55:38This is where Nixon matters. Not because America needed to see Nixon behind bars. Actually, I don't think he did. I think Ford, I think the right thing would have been to see Nixon go through the trial. If he's convicted, sentenced, and then commute it. I think Ford was ultimately right that they didn't sending a former American president to prison. While the country was still struggling through the Cold War in Vietnam, probably wouldn't have helped the national purpose. But it would have established a process. And Ford was offered that option. Why not wait for the indictment? Wait for the conviction? Wait for sentencing. Then decide about the mercy question. But Ford said no because he thought it would take too long. We were in a hurry. How many things in life? How many mistakes are made in life? In business? In politics? In sports? In who you name it? When you do something to deal with the short term at the expense of the long term?

1:56:41Unintended consequences. So I might be inditing this decision by Ford late in this process. But it's the unintended consequences. The unintended consequences this created. And you know, God bless Ford. He thought shame mattered. But what happens when you have a shameless actor in the White House? And now we have a situation where we now have that the Supreme Court has given this blind immunity to presidents in perpetuity going forward. So again, all the reasons Ford did this understandable in the moment. I do think we've underrated the political inconvenience. This would have he would have been facing had there would have been a trial. Because you had like the, you know, the Nixon truthers like the Roger Stones and his ilk of the world.

1:57:44Roger Ailes, this whole group of people who thought Nixon was railroaded because he was just in their, you just practicing hardball politics. Essentially Ford gave them, gave them agency. So look, I think this is now one of the worst decisions president has made. The long term consequences we are paying the price for right now. We have the most corrupt presidency in the history of this nation. Because we decided to punt on holding the previous most corrupt presidency in our nation's history to a true cap. That's your time machine lesson for the week. This is Ashley Akinetti from the almost famous podcast. You ever notice you and your spouse keep saying we need to get away, but you never actually plan anything. That was us until we did something fun and spontaneous.

1:58:45We went to resort pass.com. There are hundreds of hotel resorts, pools and spots and private beaches that you can enjoy. You can spend the day at a luxury resort, pool, spa, massage, without booking an overnight stay. And listen, I may have only been like 15 minutes from home, but it felt like it was a whole different world. And I'm thinking this is exactly what I needed. So just go to resort pass.com, choose your resort, choose your day, luxury, resort, day passes start at just $25. Once you post your daycation, people are going to ask where you are. Go to resort pass.com slash almost famous and use the promo code almost famous to get $20 off when you spend $100. That's code almost famous at resort pass.com slash almost famous. What it sounds like when you road trip to the I-Hart Radio Music Festival in the all new Hyundai Palisade Hybrid. Wow, this is really nice inside. The Palisade Hybrid has more luxury than ever.

1:59:45Whoa, this sound system is awesome. Turn it up! More tech than ever. Sweet, you got the available built-in dash cam. And more range than ever because the Palisade Hybrid gets up to 600 plus miles of range on a full tank. So do we ever have to stop for gas? Visit HyundaiUSA.com or call 5-6-2-314-4603 for more details. This is Tony A.O. from the Rail Report with Tony A.O. in Uncle Murder. You haven't noticed how everything keeps going up, rents going up, streaming services are going up. Even your favorite burrito spot suddenly thinks salsa should cost extra. But with boost mobile, you and your phone bill don't have to play the Willis Go Up Zoom game because boost mobile has an unlimited torque, text, and data plan at a price that'll never go up. It's the same price you'll pay for life, meaning you're set to never worry about your bill increasing again. For as long as you're on the plan. While the world keeps finding new ways to nickel and dime you, boost mobile will give you unlimited wireless at one set price for life. Imagine something in your budget actually staying the same.

2:00:45You'll pay the same for unlimited wireless when you're posting mirror selfies in your 20s and when you're posting mirror selfies in retirement. Some things never change. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up only at boost mobile. After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on a boost unlimited plan. Healthcare can feel complicated. That's why Optum uses technology to connect the people and processes that make healthcare easier, more affordable, and more effective. Having it clearer for you to know exactly what your benefits cover. And to help you better manage your health, we're coordinating care between your doctors and your technology. We believe better, simpler healthcare is always possible. That's healthy optimism. That's Optum. Visit Optum.com to learn more. Ass Chuk. Alright, let's see longtime fan from Arkansas's second district first time Ask Chuk Hopeful.

2:01:47Very nice. Well, you're coming from the second district and I was about to say, oh, that's potentially one of the most competitive races in Arkansas. Maybe the most competitive race in Arkansas. And you write French Hill is already running gauzy feel good ads in his race against Chris Jones. Does that suggest his internal polling, maybe showing a more competitive race and expected and just how favorable would the environment need to be for Democrats to seriously compete for the seat. And if Democrats win both chambers of Congress, do you think Higgs Seth can face impeachment? You might go to political podcast love the election coverage with you. So does NDHQ. Well, thank you for saying that. So the short answer is look, yes, and look if there's to put it in terms of blue wave versus blue tsunami. French Hill is in the blue wave category of seats. Right. It is it is the most purple of the four congressional districts. In Arkansas. One of my go to numbers on deciding whether a seat could be vulnerable in a wave year is 55%.

2:02:52Well, guess what the presidential number has been in Arkansas second district in 2016. Trump got about 55%. In 2020, Trump got about 55%. And in 2024, he got 55.5%. Right. It was a little slightly better. His best performance yet. So those are, you know, it's it's, you know, what's the recipe for French Hill to lose in this scenario. Right. You have super enthusiastic Democratic vote, right. So if Biden gets 42% air is actually got 40 42.5%. So assume it. Do a three point bump. Right. For for democratic enthusiasm advantage. You're sitting at 46. So now you're to, you know, you're in a 50 to 46 scenario here. Right. A 54 40. 53 46 scenario. And you have a third party candidate potentially peeling some votes away. Then you throw in mag a turn out being down. Maybe the suburbs are up. Maybe a huge chunk of African American voters over perform in the midterm year.

2:04:03That's the recipe for that. And so I think French Hill is on the line of blue wave to blue tsunami. Right. I fully suspect he's a single did that, you know, if he wins, he wins in with single digits. I think at our blue wave scenario, he either wins by somewhere under five points or loses by like a, a pointer to. But look, he's also somebody that has been very self aware about his district. He doesn't pretend he's in a 70, a 65% performing district. Right. This is the most competitive of the four congressional districts. This is little rock. This does have the seat of government and government. You go to any of these congressional districts, even in red states, where the government, where the state capital is. And it's just going to be a little less Republican. So ultimately, I think it's black turn out. That will decide this. And I think if, if I, one reason why I expect Hill to survive in this environment is that the statewide ticket isn't very strong. And there isn't a lot of investment in trying to get the African American vote to come out for a statewide race.

2:05:13I know I've seen the one there's that one poll that popped in the Senate race that showed the Democrat somehow leading Tom Cotton by a couple points. But, um, but that's the scenario. Um, is just what is African American turnout. And I, in my, in my blue wave blue tsunami scenarios, I'm assuming a supercharged African American turnout. And that could put, I mean, I do think it, I think it's in the, it's in the larger playing field. Like I said, and it's right on the cusp of of a seat that, that in a blue wave year is a, they probably don't win. But it wouldn't be a shock if they did. And definitely is one of those seats that goes on a blue tsunami. But I do think I would probably say French Hill is like the pickup number 26 or 27 for Democrats. If somehow the house pickup number gets that high. Appreciate the question. Next one comes from Max W and Virginia's eighth district. That's our district, Max. You're right here.

2:06:16So this is a, this is somebody in my own congressional district. Help me, Oby Chuck Kenobi. I appreciate that. You're my only hope. You've talked a lot about rural voters who sported Trump despite some of his policies, potentially hurting farmers, ranchers and lower income communities. So beyond explanations like race and gender. Why do so many of these voters appear to support candidates whose policies may conflict with their economic interest. And is this actually a modern phenomenon or is it always been a part of American politics? I'll hang up a listen. Well, look, the rural urban divide has always been there. It's actually used to be in reverse, right? Particularly in the southern states. The cities were more Republican leaning. And the, it was the rural areas that were more democratic leaning. I mean, Oklahoma was one of my favorite examples of this where you would see Democrats. The first members of Congress were from Tulsa and Oklahoma City were on the Republican side, the closer you were to there. And then the rural areas were all democratic. And that was the South in general. But it developed this way in Florida.

2:07:17The first Republicans to get statewide traction starting in the late 80s, early 90s. Where was a guy named Bob Martinez from Tampa, right? Basically the second biggest metro area in the state at the time. And Jeb Bush from Miami. So this was it. It was this was when the Republican party's strength was the suburbs. Now that switched out. Now the question on I think you left out one big topic and it's religion. I think that is what has made the cultural disconnect so much harder for Democrats overcome as they become a more secular party. Even the, even though they're in line with where rural America is on economic interests. There's so they're literally you you talk to those independent candidates that I've had on here that are running as independence instead of Democrats in places like Idaho and South Dakota. And remember the similar message both of them gave Todd Achilles and Brian Banks, which was people wouldn't even they won't have the conversation if you have a D next year name. But if you have an eye next year name, then I'll have a conversation.

2:08:28I think look the world communities are more religious than the suburban and urban communities. Do I think the trend line over time is we're going to become a more secular nation over time. I do. I think that continues. But in the meantime, I think the biggest impediment right when we say culture right you'll hear a lot of you know sort of the the non argumentative word is just a cultural misfit and stuff like this. But there is something to it, but I think it really is on religious grounds, you know, because in rural America, the church it's not that people are overly religious. You know, it's not quite what Obama said that in rural America, they cling to their guns in the Bible. They're not clinging to the Bible, but the church in rural America churches are just the center of the community. And it's where you interact with everybody. It's where you get to know everybody. It's just in and so you know people that spend twice a week at church in rural America Wednesdays and Sundays.

2:09:28It doesn't mean that they're you know somehow more Bible thump re than than someone else is. But there's you know, there's not a whole bunch of other stuff to do and Wednesdays one of the you know this is a community gathering time you know church night in the south is on Wednesdays. It's not a you know, yes. In some places it can be very serious Bible study, but in other places it's really sort of a potluck dinner or it's just another chance to get together with your neighbors. So and you know this is why I think 50% of the Democrats problems in rural America is just they stopped showing up. And I think part of it is they're messaging the you know, they were more comfortable messaging voters in suburban America and urban America and they just got more and more uncomfortable. Right Bill Clinton came from rural Arkansas so he was comfortable talking to rural Arkansas. Al Gore at least grew up in the summers in rural Tennessee. He could have that conversation. But then you look at let's look at our our last five Democratic nominees for president Obama grew up on an island in Hawaii or Chicago.

2:10:39You have John Kerry right he kind of grew up in boarding schools and then you know he's in Massachusetts in Boston not exactly rural Hillary Clinton suburbs of Chicago. Over suburban kid and in parts of Pennsylvania as well. Joe Biden. You know common areas with Bay Area Joe Biden sort of the the Philly excerpts if you will you know scranton and he certainly had some working classrooms just like Hillary Clinton grew up in parts of sort of working class suburban communities but not in rural and it's been you know look back now the last time a Democrat was the national nominee for moral America was was Bill Clinton. So I do think it is a it is a lack of familiarity right and I you know the number one thing you can do is show up and that's I'll be curious to see if if Democrats really learn the lesson by showing up in rural South Carolina during the during the price for first nomination.

2:11:47Um alright next question comes from Carrie and St. Louis but she adds North Dakota native and highly recommend the new Teddy Roosevelt presidential library in Madura I cannot wait to go check that out to be honest with you. Anyway let's get to your question Carrie and it is I know you enjoy alternative history so here's one. You've described yourself as an incrementalist but what if a president moved just as aggressively as Trump has only towards broadly popular goals like reducing homelessness addressing addiction expanding affordable health care and investing in science and medicine those efforts produced tangible benefits within two years and the president's party also control Congress what reach your case for incrementalism be that. It's a great question I guess the question is you're assuming that a president could get all that done and I guess what I'm saying is I don't know I don't think you can. And even the stuff that Trump is aggressively done what is he hasn't really done he's just.

2:12:52You know he's just basically screwed with the tax code and he's messed with regulation from an executive side of things so you know he hasn't really done what you're trying what you're talking about would require. A lot of federal money investment you would need a bunch of votes in Congress for it and you would have a hard time getting those things so yes I agree if they somehow you got this. Then yes then I would I would lay down my sword and say hey if you've got the right leader it must for your scenario to work it's somebody with the charisma of F of Obama plus FDR. Plus Bill Clinton in some of the you know of that level of charisma and majorities the size of FDRs right Bill Clinton and Obama had brief majorities that got close but even those majorities were a little divided. He had these enormous majorities and he only really could make economic progress ready you know that was the big thing that up here got so I guess the problem I have with.

2:14:01Your what if is is I do think it means like winning the argument was 60 of 60 plus type of super majority type of election and maybe that's possible maybe somebody runs on a plan like that and people are all in on something like that. And if they were I would like I said I'd lay down my arms about incrementalism I just don't think we're that like that's the that's the reason I'm are I argue for incrementalism is not because I think it's the best way I think it's the only way you can govern this country I think our factions are you know you can have larger goals and I can make an argument what if I made progress on all of those things one little step at a time. I can you could do seven incremental things in seven different areas and it looks like you're making massive change so when I call myself an incrementalist it means launching so security but one step at a time it doesn't mean not doing so security so that'd be the other defensive when I when I think sometimes my my when I'm a yes I am an incrementalist meaning when you're trying to make huge change do it one step at a time.

2:15:12If you try to do six steps at once you might actually set yourself eight steps back and that's why that is my it is not because I want to be an incrementalist it is more of this is this is our system and you are only going to make change one step at a time that's my argument on it but I accept your what if scenario but I don't buy it unless somebody wins with some 60% of presidency and brings in super majority of the world. We have no more opportunities in the house in the Senate then yeah they get to write the ticket. Two more questions here as a former House Stafford Staff Council from 1985 to 2010 I share your frustration with how how the House functions today from my experience the major turning point came under Newt Gengrich when the house shifted from a committee driven member up system to a leadership driven model a structure democrats later maintained under speaker policy I so glad you bring this up. biggest mistake, it turns out she may was not changing the Newt Gingrich structure that

2:16:18he brought in in 95. She kept it. All right. Now, let me get back to your question here. Do you think expanding the house could help restore some power to individual members and committees, bringing decision making closer to the people? I wholeheartedly agree with expanding the house, more members, more input from the people. Look, I, you know, the specific critique of this form of Congress is just what she wrote here. It is when Gingrich decided to take power away from the committee chairs, put term limits in for committee chairs, and essentially centralized authority to the leadership. Democrats accepted that premise when she went back, when when Democrats went back, Congress in in in oh six. It is if you're going to ask me that if it was a mistake, the answer is an obvious yes. Did it work short again? The theme of my time machine episode this week is short term versus the long term. Short term it helped Pelosi consolidate her power. And you don't get Obamacare perhaps without it,

2:17:22but I think weakening the committee structure, weakening individual members in general and what they can and can't do has just eroded the country's belief that the system is representative of them. Right. And that's what I want to restore. You know, I would accept bringing more if you had just made the committee chairs, you know, gave committee chairs and ranking members, more authority and more power to decide which bills get through committee. You might not need to expand the house as much as I like to expand the house. But look, we've got to ultimately you've got to get back the the public does not believe the Congress representative, the House of Representatives is representative of other people. That's your problem. So how do you solve that? One is the leader, the the way Gingrich restructured how the house works should be thrown out. And Pelosi didn't throw it out. She reaffirmed it in in January, 2007. Looking back, a huge mistake. At the time,

2:18:24understandable why she kept it. Not going to sit here and say, you know, because you also have the point where it was almost by the time she got, she was in charge and the Democrats got, you know, we were 12 years removed. That's half a generation. It's a lot of forgotten institutional memory. And we've been through 9.11 and all out. There's so many things happened between 95 when Gingrich changes the rules and 07 when Pelosi chooses not to change the rules. But I'm so glad you brought that up because yes, Newt started this, but Democrats twice had a chance to roll that back and chose not to. Final question for this episode comes from Dan and he writes, Republicans have become very effective at reaching Lex educated white voters on cultural issues and those deserve representation like anyone else. What would your advice be to Democrats for breaking through the media bubbles? Many of these voters occupy whether Fox, podcast or X and actually

2:19:25speaking to them persuasively love all your content. I tolerate the sports because I like you. Shana Tava, Dan, happy near to you as well. And I appreciate you tolerating my sports rants. Look, in some ways it's similar to the conversation. I do think you know, it's a cliche. You got to meet people where they are. Somehow Democrats aren't, you know, they've seated sports. The entire sports culture to the right. I think that's been a mistake. They've seated religious culture to the right. Wait, that's a mistake. Democrats have had entertainment mostly on their side, but we've seen Republicans have come up with their own sort of entertainment structure. So I think in the two big areas culturally, religion and sports, that these are two important, you know, especially religion in the rural communities in particular, sports in general. I think it's seating those two pieces of territory. And you know, I understand how the sports thing happened, right? You know, well,

2:20:25our issues are more serious. We don't, you know, we don't need to be talking about sports right now. So it came up. It is in its own way like some, you know, it goes back to somehow Democrats became the party of schoolmars, right? And when I was growing up, it was the Republicans were the party of schoolmars and the Democrats were the hippies and the pot smokers, right? Now the party of tattoo, tattoo, vape-smoking guys are not the left, but it's the right. And I'm not saying, but it's just the entire mindset where it feels as if the Republican party come to the average sort of person, you know, non-college educated. If you want to, you know, go down that road. But basically, the average working person looks at it and thinks, huh, Democrats judging the way I live Republicans don't. That's all. And I know that seems like a simple thing, a simple analysis and, you know, but that's a, that's a core, right? The Democrats are the judgment party and the Republicans have

2:21:30become the live and let live party. Part of that is Donald Trump, if they weren't the live and let party, right? Now they still have some things that go run counter to that. And I know some of your listening will, but that's narratives are not always fair, guys. Perception becomes reality even if it's not real. So ultimately, it becomes just, just, just, it's okay to have your own sort of interests and sort of, you know, and I'm not telling somebody who's not religious to suddenly become religious, but, you know, well, then go connect in another way in rural America. But I think that's, you know, and maybe stop judging and start listening. And again, easy to say. And I certainly think that that's the, that's the, the sort of intellectual conversation that takes place, right? The left

2:22:32comes across a little judge here. There's plenty of judgment on the right. Don't get me wrong. But if you're this to me, and I think is the perception problem that whoever wants to be the face of the Democratic Party in 2028 needs to deal with. All right. I am excited about increasing our frequency here. So we will do that. I will try to make the episode slightly, slightly smaller since I will have more opportunities to catch more stories with that. I'll see you in 24 hours. This is Tony A.O. from the real report with Tony A.O. and Uncle murder. You haven't noticed how everything keeps going up, rent streaming, even extra social, such a favorite burrito spot. But with boost mobile, you don't have to play the Willis go up zoom game. Boost mobile offers an unlimited torque, text, and data planned at a price that'll never go up. It's the same price you'll pay for life. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up only at boost mobile.

2:23:35After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the boost unlimited plan. What it sounds like when you roadtrip to the I Heart Radio Music Festival in the all new Hyundai Palisade Hybrid. Wow, this is really nice inside. The Palisade Hybrid has more luxury than ever. Whoa, this sound system is awesome! Turn it up! More tech than ever. Sweet, you got the available built-in dashcam. And more range than ever because the Palisade Hybrid gets up to 600 plus miles of range on a full tank. So do we ever have to stop for gas? Visit HyundaiUSA.com or call 5-6-2-314-4603 for more details. Healthcare can feel complicated. That's why Optum uses technology to connect the people and processes that make healthcare easier, more affordable, and more effective. We're making it clearer for you to know exactly what your benefits cover. And to help you better manage your health, we're coordinating care between your doctors and your technology. We believe better,

2:24:37simpler healthcare is always possible. That's healthy optimism. That's Optum. Visit Optum.com to learn more. The difference between a HELOC and an HEI is more than spelling. A HELOC means monthly payments, a splotero HEI doesn't. A HELOC has strict requirements, a splotero HEI only requires a 500 minimum credit score with no income requirement. Visit spltintiro.com today and access your home's equity. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.