Chuck’s Commentary - Decoding Missouri’s Election Map Mess + A Damaging Story That Could Upend The Kansas Senate Race

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4:163985. Hello there and welcome back to the Wednesday edition of the Chuck Todd cast. Yes. Now that the fall season is upon us, I am bringing back my Wednesday pod. So we will have Chuck Todd cast episodes dropping on Mondays, Wednesdays and Thursdays. You will have Super Tuesday with my partner, Chris Salisa on Shocking Lianna Tuesday. And of course, you can catch news fear every Sunday night on the news fear app. And also, I know I've been teasing this and teasing this, but it is now live on YouTube right now. And you can see it in this feed as well. It is for my Dynastics Sports History podcast, which Aayah Donde. He and I have a tremendous conversation about Alabama football with the man himself, the only person other than Nick Sabin. You could call Mr. Alabama football that's living today and it is Paul fine bomb.

5:19It was a tremendous conversation. You definitely will, if you're a college football fan or a fan or a history of college sports or you're just love Alabama football. You're going to love this conversation. Yes, even me, even me this this anti SEC Miami Hurricane fan did my best to compartmentalize my own personal venom with how the SEC sometimes wants to velvet rope off college football for themselves. I think we do a good job giving Alabama its due there. But I'm coming in tonight. We're actually taping it's right after our live stream that we had on the New Hampshire primary. So I want to start with there and look, most of my Wednesday episodes, at least between now and November are going to be very campaign heavy. What's happening on the trail plus I have my top five list. The blue wave blue tsunami test is what the top five list is about. You'll have to check, check it out to get more details there. And of course I take your question.

6:20But let me begin with what if anything we learned out of New Hampshire. And I think the big thing is is that the establishment got its way. And they did so frankly rather comfortably Chris Papis, who's basically been the Democratic nominee and waiting ever since he announced in the field was relatively cleared. He helped clear it. Other people cleared it for him as well. There was no doubt that Democrats wanted to try to minimize the risk of losing the seat. Republicans meanwhile found themselves the best possible candidate they could get in this environment. They got somebody with the last name of Sununu, no not the governor. But the former senator Johnson and my friend Jeffrey Skelly noted that if Johnson and who does win this Senate seat. He will it will be an 18 year gap. The largest gap really in the modern era between service time in the United States Senate. John E. Sununu served one term in the Senate 2002 where he was recruited to primary an incredibly vulnerable incumbent at the time Bob Smith.

7:22The primary worked Sununu won the primary and then he goes on to defeat Gene Sehing in who was the sitting governor at the time for that Senate seat in 2002 six years later. There's a rematch and which an unusual situation. The challenger won the rematch. That doesn't always happen a lot of times in the Senate rematch is the losing candidate. Not only comes up short, but usually comes up usually loses by a larger margin than they lost the first time Paul Wellstone Rudy Boschowitz is my favorite example of that. If you want to go down into the history of those election results, but she he won the seat back from Johnny Sununu in 2008 and she served in it ever since. Interestingly, her first reelection was against Scott Brown, who was by then the former senator from Massachusetts. He got the nomination in 2014. It was a fairly competitive race, but she survived in a Republican leaning year. And then Scott Brown wanted to run again when this seat opened up and Republicans decided that they did not want to get behind this candidacy. So they went and found themselves as Sununu.

8:28And so here we are. And Johnson, who won by a bigger margin than Chris Papis did in his primary. Papis had a progressive primary challenger who did not have much money had no national support. And that's what's that's the most interesting aspect of it's sort of like the dog that didn't bark in New Hampshire. And the progressive dog didn't bark and I think it had a lot to do with presidential candidates not wanting to alienate the Shaheen machine. Right. And so the Shaheen machine was basically behind Papis. The Shaheen machine has a candidate in the first congressional district. The district that Papis is vacating and she and Shaheen's daughter. And so it was a ran in that race. And certainly there was a lot of effort to eke her out into that primary. And so it is interesting that so many outside groups didn't play in this race. And as James Pendel, Boston Globe reporter, long time New Hampshire reporter. Back back when I got to know him, he worked for something called politics and H really is sort of the New Hampshire expert. And you know, he looked at it as if if he were assessing the progressive movement that they really dropped the ball on this one they had an opportunity.

9:41But you know, this has been it's been interesting, you know, the the progressive progressives have had a, you know, Bernie Sanders is one the New Hampshire primary twice, but the progressive movement has not been able to either use that momentum to build off of it in any way. I mean, the most progressive member of the delegation they've had in sort of this century was Carol Shea Porter who represented one of the two congressional districts. But it is the left has been sort of muted and it's always been kind of muted. And it goes back to the fact that Democrats couldn't win a New Hampshire for an ice age. And then 1996 Jean Shaheen goes from party operative. She cut her teeth. Helping Gary Hart pulling upset 1984 is one of his the Shaheen machine was born at the 84 New Hampshire primary when she essentially resurrected the Gary Hart campaign from the dead. And the legend was born then. And by 96 she had enough chips to actually win office herself. And she broke a near 100 year streak to become a Democratic elected governor there in New Hampshire.

10:47So she is the party she created the modern Democratic party. And there's always been an allergy inside that party. Don't go too far to the left. That's how, you know, New Hampshire Republicans have successfully elected very conservative statewide office holders in the past. I think they have less luck with that now. The state really is a sort of a center left leaning state, you know, if Democrats go to liberal. That's when a Republican can win. And these days Republicans can't get too far to the right or they struggle to carry that state, right. Donald Trump's never carried New Hampshire. Yet we still consider New Hampshire is part of the larger most competitive part of the battleground. So I think the story of New Hampshire really is how the establishment really did work its magic in both sides of the aisle and kept the outsiders out, if you will, certainly kept them at bay, kept the outsider money from being too involved here the way we've seen

11:50outside or money everywhere else now the question is how competitive is this race. I had a lot of fun with Jessica Taylor during our livestream. She is the guru behind the Senate ratings for the Cook political report with my friend Amy Walter. And we were doing okay, what's closer to toss up nobody is saying New Hampshire Senate is a toss up between Papas and Sununu, but it's going to be very competitive race. This is going to be a single digit race, probably decided. I think in the somewhere in the four to six point range, if it's closer, that means it's probably been a better net Republican night nationally. And if it's a little bigger, then we'll know it was a better night nationally for the Democrats. But I think we're looking at a four to six point range. So we did this. Okay, what's closer to toss up New Hampshire Senate or Kansas Senate. Oh, and then we did New Hampshire Senate or Nebraska Senate, and then we did New Hampshire Senate or Iowa Senate. And so when she did those orders, she had New Hampshire Senate essentially much closer to, I'm much closer closer to toss up than Kansas, closer to toss up than Nebraska, but Iowa close is in her toss up category narrowly.

12:54But New Hampshire not there. So that's where she classifies New Hampshire. I'm probably a little more bearish on it, though, I don't want to discount the Sununu name. And I've shared with you, I've known Johnny Sununu a long time. He is just a dude, you know, he, I've gotten to know him. He's a big baseball card collector. And he's way into for those of you don't know, he collects all the preworse, all the all the pre pre 1952 stuff. He's a he's a pre war collector. He loves those, you know, if the, if the set has a T in front of it, he's collecting those. He went time gifted me two tops of Venezuelan cards, which are these very thin, was printed on extraordinarily thin paper, but in Spanish and stuff. And just, just a fantastic little collector's item, if you care about these things. In many ways, I always thought, you know, Johnson and his politics were probably a little too conservative New Hampshire, but culturally he was sort of the right kind of quirky. And I say that as a compliment.

13:58But it's it's hard to see, you know, Kelly is a Republican that has figured out how to win that governor's race. But as we've discussed, it is easier to win a governor's race if you're not from where the party from where the state leans that it is a federal race where the Jersey color matters a lot. And the thing with Chris Papis, his sin in the primary was he was not considered a progressive. He very much is, you know, he was getting hit for votes that many Republicans supported in the House of Representatives. So he is ideologically well suited. The question is, is he charismatic enough to hold it? Or does it matter? Right. Is it going to break through? Is this a race that is going to grab the attention of New Hampshire voters and importantly, the New Hampshire independent voters? I'm a bit skeptical. Which is why I think you're going to see everybody will acknowledge this is going to be close. It's kind of like, frankly, how I feel about the South Carolina Senate rates. I think it's going to be really close. I think you're making a mistake if you totally ignore it. I feel the same way about New Hampshire. You're making a mistake if you totally ignore it.

15:05But eight times out of 10, I know, I think I know who's going to win both races. Right. But if you're talking, you know, it's not, you know, there it is not a crazy result. It is not some total. It's a surprise, but not a shock. If so, new poll pulled it off. And I feel the same way in South Carolina, if any, Andrews upset darling Graham, I'd be surprised. It wouldn't be shocked. Right. The ingredients. There's a lot of the ingredients you need to pull an upset. But you're sitting there in South Carolina. So that's kind of I put New Hampshire more in that category that that sort of these are competitive races. The party that should win is favorite to win should win. But these are some pretty good challenger candidates so they shouldn't be ignored. But again, I go back. It is really interesting to me how. And this is what Pindal kept pointing out, which I think was a smart point, which is how people like in that second tier of presidential candidate on the Democratic side.

16:11Think, uh, Rokana, think Chris Van Holland, think Chris Murphy didn't essentially go against the grain and go against the establishment. Here's a dirty little secret. The Sheehan machines never getting behind a Rokana. The Sheehan machines never getting behind a Chris Van Holland candidacy or a Chris Murphy candidacy. So I kind of think it would have been a free opportunity. And it would have allowed you to stand out in a way that others didn't stand out. But again, I get it. No Democrat wanted to be on the wrong side of the Sheehan family, which may explain why progressives in general didn't get the support of New Hampshire. I think perhaps that voters might have been intrigued and open for. So there's my quick little thing in New Hampshire does not change my overall. I believe about where the national landscape is doesn't change anything. I said, you know, I still think we're, you know, the most likely scenario is some sort of fairly significant blue wave. The question is just how big can it get, you know, can it look closer to being big rather than closer to being a mirage.

17:20Well, that's what we're going to find out in the next eight weeks. And speaking of that, let me unload on a few more items in my notebook, my sort of Wednesday call it the Wednesday campaign notebook. And I want to start in the state of Missouri, because I think we have a real sort of disenfranchising a voter problem now going on in Missouri, because if you want an example of how our political system can make something that ought to be fairly simple like voting almost incomprehensibly complicated. Do I have one for you? And the story has changed a lot just in the last 24 hours. So right before the polls closed in New Hampshire on Tuesday night. The Supreme Court seemed to put it to rest and we thought we had it to rest. And then another federal court jumped in and put a temporary restraining order on what the state Supreme Court said kind of ignoring what the US Supreme Court said.

18:20So let me let me lay this out there for those of you that haven't been paying attention to what Missouri's been up to. And this of course is all about the larger that larger battle that we spent the spring litigating and relitigating all over the country, the sort of mid decade redistricting. So Missouri Republicans drew, you know, followed the advice of President Trump and drew a new congressional map last year. They wanted to go instead of six to they wanted to at least see if they could get to seven one or even eight zero. It was part of that mid decade redistricting arms race. That and the principal target was the fifth congressional district in Kansas City. It is the district that is currently represented by Democratic Congressmen, the manual cleaver. Opponent, opponents of that map and what they did is they basically they got rid of the fifth right they created a hub and spoke and they made a and essentially they created a situation that there would be just one African American seat in St. Louis essentially and that's it seven one everywhere.

19:27They took a six to a map that you know in a really good Democratic air could get to five three with the suburb if if the and Wagner suburban seat ever fell to the Democrats, but realistically it had been a six to map. They decided they could make a seven one map they couldn't get rid of the St. Louis district, but they thought they could get rid of the Kansas City one. So they come up with the seven one map. Opponents of that map went out and collected more than 300,000 signatures to put the legislation basically on a year nay up or down vote on a statewide referendum because under Missouri's constitution, a valid referendum petition can suspend a law until the voters decide whether to approve it. The voters can kind of overrule a legislature if enough signatures are gathered to do just that it's an interesting Missouri's not the only state that does this, but it's one of the few states that do it. So opponents got the signatures and they had it for a long time and it looked like we were going to get this referendum pretty quickly and it would would have happened perhaps in the spring or whatever except the Missouri Secretary state, Danny Hoskins decided the referendum provision didn't apply to congressional redistricting.

20:43He just by the way, he had no he had no basis in fact to prove this he just decided this so he just kept the lane. Those petitions were submitted in December, okay, December of 2025 we are sitting in September of 2026. And when did he did not reject the petition signatures officially until 4 p.m. on August 4th August 4th happened to be the day of the Missouri primary. In other words, and you see what he was doing here, he was sort of trying to they were trying to jam the courts, they were trying to sort of force the situation where yeah, you know, but but you can't just in frame, today's the voters were we've gone too far. It's like Trump. It's like Trump, it's the equivalent of knocking down a building before anybody gave you permission to knock down a building. What are you going to do about it now, right? That's essentially what this Missouri Secretary state tried to do. You tried to screw the voters, screw the state constitution and jam this thing through.

21:46So Missouri went ahead on August 4th held congressional primaries using the new district lines. Even though he knew the legal status, this Secretary state, this person ought to be recalled and kicked out of office. It's the most undemocratic actions that you could make here. I mean, in its incompetency, like any any first year lawyer, just out of law school would have told him, hey, you know, this is going to get challenged anyway. So he goes ahead and allows the election to be held under the new lines. Even though he knew the legal status was in question. And so what happened last week, the Missouri Supreme Court, the state Supreme Court unanimously said the Secretary states decision to not accept these referendum, accept those signatures and accept the premise of the referendum that his interpretation that somehow this provision in the Constitution didn't apply to redistricting was BS. Man, this was unanimous.

22:46You unanimous, they said this. They said the referendum was legal. It was sufficient and it was timely. And because it was filed on time, the courts said the new congressional map never took a fact. So as far as the state Supreme Court is concerned, there is no seven one map that the Republicans created late in 2025. There is only the 2022 map, which was that 62 map. The state, the Missouri Supreme Court is saying the map didn't become illegal last week. The map never existed. It never took a fact. But voters voted, right? Hey, you know those pieces in your closet that you find yourself wearing on repeat boy, is that me? I wear the same three or four things, right? The sweater that goes with everything that perfect pair of pants, the t-shirt you somehow always reach for first. Those are the pieces that make getting dressed easy, right? And that's what Quince does best.

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28:33So the old 2022 districts remain as far as the state Supreme Court is concerned the only legal congressional districts that Missouri has had the entire time. So the court specifically blamed the practical mess we're now in on the secretary of states delay and incorrect interpretation of law this is why this person he literally has disenfranchised over a million voters with his partisan decision just because he was afraid that the lot that afraid of following his own states constitution I believe he took a note but apparently he already violated his own. So look they didn't like what the state Supreme Court did so Missouri appealed to the United States Supreme Court to intervene and again just before polls closed in New Hampshire primary and Tuesday justice Brett Kavanaugh declined to intervene you didn't give an explanation. But I can tell you why didn't intervene this is a state issue the US Supreme Court rarely is is is just not going to get involved into the interpretation of a state constitution by state Supreme Court.

29:40That's why he didn't intervene. Right and if you go look at the history of the US Supreme courts when when you see states I mean we saw similar thing happened with Virginia right Virginia Democrats wanted the US Supreme Court to intervene and they wouldn't do it they're not going to get involved with a state Supreme Court is interpreting the state constitution. So one would have assumed that would have settled it old map is going to be in November now there was a lot of problems with that except minutes after the Kavanaugh decision where he said this US Supreme Court was not going to intervene in this a federal district judge in Missouri. Gentlemen named Stephen Clark issued a temporary restraining order saying Missouri cannot use the old map even though the state Supreme Court said there is only one map there is no new map because it was never legal. So here we are the Missouri Supreme Court says there is no new map you cannot use it it's not a legal map and a federal judge says yeah but you can't use the old map now it's too late.

30:44Election days eight weeks away so here we are Missouri so what's going to happen so here's what Judge Clark's order does it only last 14 days this temporary restraining order. So and the opponents of the new map have already appealed this decision. But it is important to hear Clark's reasoning here because this was the point I had actually prepared to talk about until we had even more changes here. He has now put his finger on the same problem I was trying to understand since the Missouri Supreme Court ruling came down he says switching maps between the primary and the general election would quote wreak havoc on the fairness and orderliness of Missouri's congressional elections. And he's right about the underlying practical problem because Missouri already held this primary about 1.2 million Missouri and participated in set primary candidates one nominations those results were certified all under a map that does not exist according to the state Supreme Court by the way. But those prime but but because of those primaries were conducted using the new districts.

31:46So now what do you do right the Missouri Supreme Court says those districts never should have been used because they had not been enacted into law yet. So imagine you're a voter in Missouri you showed up in August the state told you here's your new congressional district here are the candidates seeking to represent you you get to pick one and so you did your vote was counted and now the state may have to come back and say hmm well we now you're now in a different district so the person you voted in the primary is not the nominee you get to decide between that's in that you're now in a different district. Well what the hell right right so somebody else want a primary to represent your actual district except you never got to vote in that primary so weren't this is not a hypothetical this is what is being contemplated right now by the state of Missouri. Now if you want to get into the details here six of the of Missouri's a congressional districts were changed by the new map.

32:47And the fifth district was the one changed the most so basically you've got three quarters of voters were impacted by this in Missouri so I don't know how you can even if you're I don't know how Congress can seat the winners of this if they hold if they somehow change maps here anyway. So what are you so now are they going to revert to the old map and then if you won if you're the Republican nominee got him Rick Brack Brack and thought he was going to be a member of the state of Missouri. Essentially the shoe end to win the congressional seat of the new fifth district now he's going to be the Republican nominee against the manual cleaver in the manual cleaver's old district and he's going to get trouts. And the Republican voters who nominated the Republican who were voting in a fundamentally different district. So what do you do. Well, what judge Clark's answer is essentially is that changing now creates such enormous disruption that the fairer course is to finish the election under the map used for the primary.

33:49But there's one enormous problem with the solution the Missouri Supreme Court has unanimously said that the map never took effect under Missouri law. So now you've got two courts protecting two different principles. The state court is saying you cannot simply ignore the Missouri Constitution because following it has become inconvenient, which is what the secretary state essentially did. Any intentionally delayed his decision to try to jam to try to create this fiasco situation we're in again I just you know I hate dumbasses. This guy I don't know just just get out of politics don't ever get near the don't ever get near public service again you weren't interested in working on public service. You were just interested in implementing some partisan haqueery you ran for secretary state. That's a that in theory is supposed to be a job that's a bit more operational a lot less partisan. And and it's just it stinks to high heaven. Um, so we're in this situation because of the bad a bad acting by a bad actor.

34:54But now we've got the two courts and I get it. This is not a very easy thing to reconcile. So now you're in a we're in this situation where you have a map that the states of prime court says did not follow the constant the state's constitution. You've held a primary election and illegal primary election as it turns out. But you don't want to disenfranchise all the all of these voters right that's what the federal judges saying. So what do you do? Well, why does the solution have to be pretending that one of these problems doesn't exist? Because there is a precedent for another way to get out of this box and it's Texas 1996. This is where the Missouri story I think is likely headed. Texas had a similar situation. They had already held their congressional primaries in 1996. Then after those primaries of federal court had to redraw a bunch of congressional districts because the Supreme Court had upheld a ruling finding that several of the districts, not all of them, but several of them were unconstitutional.

35:56So while it was a different underlying legal issue, we had the same practical election problem. You've already held the primaries. Now you've got different districts. So what did the federal court do? It avoided the primary results in the 13 affected congressional districts and then did something remarkably simple on the regular November election day in 96. Everybody ran on one ballot. Democrats, Republicans and anybody else can qualify all on the same ballot. If somebody got a majority, congratulations. You're going to Congress on the traditional election day. If nobody got 50%, the top two came back for a runoff on December 10th. Four districts ended up requiring those runoffs. That's this is not some theoretical law school remedy. This is what was actually done not that long ago. And the reason I bring this up isn't because I'm telling Missouri what a court should do. I'm just telling you what's I think going to be the likely out the simple, the simplest solution to a to not an easy to certainly not an easy problem.

37:07There are important legal differences between Texas and 96 and Missouri and 26, right? Missouri law itself does not ordinarily provide for this kind of congressional election. A court would have to find the legal authority to impose this extraordinary remedy. And I think that's something a federal court could do. The clock, by the way, is ticking here. Federal law generally requires military and overseas ballots to go out 45 days before federal election. For November 3rd, that would put the deadline at September 19th, 11 days. Right? We're less than two weeks away. But if the courts ultimately conclude that Missouri has to use the old districts, somebody's going to have to answer this fundamental question. Who nominated the candidates? Because district five is not just a number on a piece of paper. A congressional district is filled with people change the people and you change the electorate. And if you've changed the electorate, how do you simply declare the nominee chosen by one group of voters is also the nominee chosen by another group of voters who never got to participate? Right?

38:07So that's why I keep coming back to the Texas solution. It's the most obvious answer here. And it's the simplest way to not create more problems because more problems could create it if you don't do this. You know, November doesn't have to be the general election. November becomes the primary and the general. So what Louisiana used to do for years for what it's worth. You know, you get to frankly, it's the type of primary election I would prefer as a voter, you know, not having to pick a party, but you just everybody's on the same ballot. I don't know that this is what the courts will do, but precedent always matters here. And this is a fairly. It's a it's the fairest way to resolve this problem. Right? Well, all the available choices, at least this one is the virtue of letting people who actually live in the district choose who represents them. And this ought to be the priority. Right? That's the constituency whose interests seem to have gotten lost in this entire fight, the actual fricking voters. Republicans wanted another congressional seat. Opponents wanted a referendum.

39:09The secretary, the state decided the referendum wasn't valid because it went against his own politics. The Missouri Supreme Court decided that it was the state was hoping the US Supreme Court would intervene. They wouldn't. Now we're in this intervention, temporary restraining order, which sort of screws everything up. The eighth circuit is going to get involved. And that's where I think they're going to come up with this remedy. There is just there is no other way. Again, unless everybody has their head up their partisan ass, right? The only remedy here is to provide the voters an opportunity to pick their own representatives in the districts that actually exist. If they don't do this, you know, there's all sorts of issues here. You know, I could see a new Congress not seating anybody from these eight. You know, we could see an entirely new special election have to take place. By the way, the this referendum is now going to be on the November ballot to decide whether or not,

40:11yay or nay on this. And who knows? We've seen voters voters don't like a political party, whether it was voters in a blue state like Virginia, didn't like the idea of trying to gerry rig that referendum. And I think you're going to see, you know, voters didn't love it. It passed, but they didn't love it in Virginia and then the courts intervene. So we'll see Missouri is certainly a red state, but again, no matter how partisan you are, you don't like to feel like you don't get a saying these things. And we've seen Missouri referendum ideologically will go in a variety of different places. It may be a red state, but it's not always ideologically as red of a state as a treputation. But either way, it's kind of a, and if the margin is really close in the house, I'm not going to go down these rabbit holes. I have a conversation that I'm going to get to in about a week that you'll enjoy on that. But, you know, imagine if we have an entire congressional delegation where we can't seat them on January 3rd for the new Congress and imagine if somehow those eight congressional districts.

41:24What happens and I would decide control if the margin is that tight between the two parties, which of course, in my blue morass scenario is quite possible. All right, let me whip up a few other things from the campaign trail. We are less than eight weeks away. And like I said, especially on Wednesdays, I'm going to do my best to highlight just some interesting developments on the trail, not every poll. I'm not going to do every ad or manufactured outrage. But there are some things that pop that I think are worth, you know, a quick, a quick, a hot take a vow or two. And here are three that caught my eye over the last few days and strangely, strangely enough, all three are kind of the same version of the same question, which is what candidates say versus what candidate to do. And I'm going to start in Nebraska because the independent Senate candidate there, Dan Osborne has given us one of the more revealing explanations of campaigning that I've heard in a while. Osborne, if you recall, came surprisingly close in 2024 of pulling an upset against Deb Fisher. Well, he's obviously he's running again.

42:25And this time he's running against Pete Ricketts. And he's trying to perform an incredibly difficult political balancing act, right? He's trying to stick to being an independent, promising he's not going to caucus with either party if he wins a Senate C. And yet he can't win if Democrats don't rally around him. And he can't win if he doesn't win a majority of independence. And he's going to need some Trump voters. This is Nebraska, right? In 2024, Osborne ran an ad that began this way. Social security deal with Legals, who would be for that? And then he went on to say he was with Trump on issues like corruption, China and the border. And then he adds, if Trump needs help building a wall, well, I'm pretty handy, right? You know, he's the working class guy. He's the mechanic. And he was trying to show that off, right? It's a nice line, except Osborne had also talked publicly about undocumented immigrants who had been in this country for decades, being able to get legal status and participate in Social Security. And then this summer in a private meeting with black and Latino Democrats,

43:25he was challenged about that wall rhetoric and that wall ad from 2024. And here's what Osborne said. He explained that campaigning and governing were essentially two separate pots of things, if you will. He said, there's the campaigning side when you're trying to get elected. And then there's what you do once you're in office. It this is true, right? Every politician runs into this. Every politician tailors a message. Every politician emphasizes one issue in one room and another issue in another room. That's it's called politics. But there's something else. There's something different about actually articulating the theory. And you got to walk a fine line here, especially with a guy like Osborne who, you know, his best asset is he's not, he's not a traditional politician, except now he's behaving like a traditional politician. Right? campaigning over here, governing over there. Okay. What makes it politically, particularly interesting coming from Osborne

44:28is because of his independent political identity. His pitch is that he isn't one of these people. He's not a normal politician. He's not beholden to the parties, except apparently the distinction between the campaign version and the governing version applies to independence too, huh? And it's look, he, he, I give him points for being honest that, hey, he's going to say certain things in the trail. Um, and he's going to govern a different way. You know, what is it? There was a famous Mario quote, you know, you, you, you campaign in poetry and governed in prose. Um, but I think it really did certain campaigns can get hit harder when your caught sort of behaving like somebody you've been running against. And that's why I think this, this is potentially one that could sting for Osborne a little bit. But it takes me to campaign in Ohio because this is a house race, but there's sort of a similar issue here. So I want to share the story with you.

45:28The Democrat is a guy named Don Leonard. He supplied us with another version of the same sort of Osborne story here. Leonard is running against a Republican Congressman named Mike Kerry. And earlier this year, Leonard was talking about accusations that he's a democratic socialist. And Leonard is on tape saying the following, I'm not a democratic socialist, okay? But then he added this, even if I'd were, I'd lie to people, I'd lie to the people of my district in order to get their votes. And then he laughed. Well, guess what? Mike Kerry, the Congressman has turned that little excerpt into an ad. Because why wouldn't you? Right? There is nothing, you know, in this day and age of everything being AI'd up, the only thing that might be credible with voters. And I say might, I don't know if any ads are going to matter anymore. If everybody thinks they're all just made up AI slop fast, right? And Trump is with the AI slop fast that he does all the time. It's really doing this. But anyway, if you can get candidates in there, if you can get your opponent in their own words, it's always,

46:30it always has the ability to land harder than if you're just repeating the words or showing them on screen. So look, if you're opponent, hand you audio saying, I'd lie to voters to get their votes, you know, you don't need to be a political genius to say, Hey, I think I'm going to use that in a political ad. Now, what Leonard was and it was Leonard has an actual recording record of being sort of left wing political views that gives carry plenty of material with which to surround the quote. But let's forget the ideological ideological argument here for a moment. I'm fascinated by the assumption contained in the joke. Osborne gets asked about saying different things to different audiences and explains, well, hey, there's, there's sort of two different lanes you got to do here. You got to say certain things as a candidate, then you'll do certain things when you're governing. The candidate in the Ohio House raised jokes that if he held an unpopular belief, obviously, he'd lie about it. And you're like, great. Thanks for, you know, puncturing, you know, whatever, whatever hope voters might have had that somebody with integrity might actually run for office here.

47:39Different candidates, different states, there's different politics. But it's the same underlying assumption, right? The campaign is a thing you do to get elected. And then there's what you actually believe. And I just say, you know, when you're running an outsider campaign and you're an outsider, the second your opponent gets to prove that you're no different than they are. Doesn't hurt the opponent as much as it's going to hurt, you know, the outsider candidate, right? Nothing in a weird way, it hits harder. You know, even if the sin is is relatively small, right? It's who are you trying to portray yourself as versus who you might actually be. And I think, look, this is, you know, for all of these independent candidates, Osborne, Brian Banks, Todd Achilles, Seth Bodner, right? The Republican campaign against them is other Democrats and independent clothing. And, you know, Osborne just saying what he did makes that easier to execute that, you know, essentially to prosecute that case.

48:50Perhaps the jury, perhaps the jury of voters might say, yeah, we hear you, but man, we're done with these incumbents and we're going with the outsider anyway. And that might very well be the case in Nebraska. But I think this is, I think it's a suddenly, it's a story that says, oh, he's just another politician. And if you're, if you're trying to break this, if you're trying to break into this system, you don't ever want somebody to conclude you're just another politician. All right, I want to stop in Kansas here and the Roger Marshall story. I mean, there's a few things going on in Kansas. One is Donald Trump is doing everything he can to make to screw up the Kansas economy, right? He's done it with beef and now he's doing it with these Canadian tariffs in particular bombardier and air, a Canadian owner, airplane manufacturer that has factories in Kansas. It's been a staple in Kansas for decades. And let's just say every Republican elected official, except really for Roger Marshall, he hasn't really come out has come out in support of bombardier, though they it's funny how they keep talking you some people will they put out statements.

50:02Nobody, nobody name nobody wants to name check Trump and say, you know, he's wrong about this. They just simply want to show that they're supportive of bombardier, but it is yet more proof that Trump might be just a secret planet of the Democrats to just see if he can totally implode the Republican party before the midterms. But that's not the story I wanted to touch on in Kansas. I wanted to touch on the story in the New York Times that's making the rounds and it's one of these stories that there's nothing illegal that was found. But it's a character story. So let me tell you about it Roger Marshall, of course, Republican Center for Relection, Democratic opponent is the Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton. Now Marshall before he ran for his political career was a doctor. In fact, he built a substantial part of his political identity around being Doc Marshall and OBGYN, world doctor, a guy who delivered thousands of babies.

51:03New York Times has gone through court records from his years of practicing medicine and what they found was somewhat remarkable. More than 700 patients of Marshall have been sued for unpaid medical bills, 81 arrests following missed court appearances. Remember the he is asked for wage garnishments bank accounts interest is charged interest on this debt. And some of the debt has been astonishingly small. One was 101 dollars. One was 129 dollars. Now I want to be careful here Roger Marshall did not personally order police officers to arrest patients who missed court dates. Judges issue warrants when people failed to appear in court, not the person who is who was suing his attorney says Marshall was not personally making those decisions and that his medical practice was using the same collection procedures available to other creditors. Okay, totally true.

52:04But there's also this if you're suing somebody over a 129 dollar medical bill. This is no longer an abstract argument about the financial survival of rural medicine, right. There's one more wrinkle in 2025 Senator Marshall introduced legislation restricting hospitals ability to sue certain patients when hospitals had failed to comply with federal price transparency requirements. Now that's very interesting to me now after reading the story about Marshall. Does Marshall did he change his mind about medical debt collection. Does he think what his own practice did was wrong. Or does he believe there's an important distinction between what a hospital does to collect medical debt and what a doctor's office does point is I think we don't want to hear the answer from him. But there's also campaign media story here to Marshall's allies want to know why this story appears now. Right. Why didn't the New York Times do this story a year ago, two years ago, three years ago, six years ago, etc. Why did they choose to run this story less than two months before an election.

53:08A fair question, right. There's no doubt it's possible that somebody to show a reporter. Hey, did you see what we found there might be more to this. You might want to look into it. Guess what? Welcome to campaign betting. Right. Welcome to campaign reporting. Now I've covered enough campaigns to know the damaging information doesn't usually materialize spontaneously on a reporter's desk. But here's a distinction that I think matters. The motive of the source doesn't determine whether the information is true. If a campaign hands a reporter a court record, the journalist job isn't to say, oh, this came from the opposition. Therefore, it doesn't count. The job is to get go get your own version of the court record, verify it, do the reporting. Find out what's going on behind it, give the candidate in question and opportunity to respond. Then perhaps let voters decide whether this is a story or not. There's also campaigning, right. What candidates say, what candidates do and what the other side can prove they did.

54:09So it's one of those things that I understand the crankiness of the Marshall campaign. But I do think this is, this becomes a character question, right, which is, you know, the story also noted, Marshall decided what the interest rate should be on uncollected debt and he chose 18% right like credit card debt 18% not 3% not 4% not 5% and there were the inevitable stories from people on explaining why they, you know, the ones who'd gotten arrested for missing a court appearance. Some said they didn't know they there was a court appearance and they didn't know that missing it meant they could get arrested and look, I think, I think we all know you have to have some rules and if you have no rules and then nothing gets enforced. But what this really gets at, right, is the empathy question. You're a doctor. How empathetic are you?

55:09Right. The Democratic nominee is a pretty famous pastor. Right. Pastors are, you know, an empathy go hand in hand. It is, it, and you know, Marshall already kind of has this, Marshall is not a wheat. I'll put it in medical terms. He doesn't have the greatest bedside manner. In fact, in some ways I'm surprised, you know, I look at it guy like the other doctor and one of the other doctors in the Senate, Bill Cassidy. That dude's got a good bedside matter, whatever you think of Bill Cassidy, some of you may love him, some of you may hate him, be angry with him over the Kennedy thing. And, you know, I think there are good friends of his that are angry with him over the Kennedy business. But I get it like as a doctor, you're like, yeah, he would make me feel better. He would, you know, the information I got out of him. He, he, there he, he's got, he's got, he's got the ability to tell it like it is. And not feel like you're getting something jammed up here. You know what?

56:12Marshall is, I don't know if he's just a little still Washington shy. I don't know how else to put it, but there's just a little, in this story sort of paints a very just cold picture. Look, there's nothing untoward that he did. And, you know, he's running a business and they've got to collect the debt. But it's, it, it certainly appears there wasn't a lot of empathy behind the decision making. And ultimately, right? Politics is very personal for people, especially again, the contrast with Pastor Hamilton is quite striking here. Never mind that it brings up the larger question of, you know, you know, how much of healthcare should be a for-profit enterprise and how much of it should be a right and, you know, we're going to have a lot of things to do. What, what, what should, you know, there was this just got wrenching story with one of the people who got arrested who she was, she started to fill out the paperwork.

57:12She thought she might qualify for Medicaid and then she went into labor before she finished the paperwork and then got the big bill and et cetera. And it went on. Let's not pretend we make this easy for people that are at or near the poverty line when it comes to getting Medicaid coverage, qualifying for Medicaid coverage. Going through the hoops, different states of different rules, all of those things. And it is again, I get why the Marshall people are upset with the timing. But this, this is no, it's no ordinary place for an op-ohit like this to land in Lansing, the New York Times. That's, you know, that's going to be a boon for Hamilton as far as attention. It's going to be a boon for Hamilton when it comes to some fundraising. The question is, is it, you know, and you can see how this gets turned into what, what the Obama people turned Romney into, the cold, hard ass corporate executive who just was trying to lay people off as fast as they can.

58:15You could picture that that's the picture that they want to paint with Marshall. And that's a question that I have about Marshall is how, how well established is his identity? He's an incumbent, but he's a, this is his first reelection as senator. How well established is he with Kansas voters? How embedded is he? Jerry Moran's been around a long time. I think he's got, he's embedded himself. It's one story wouldn't puncture the reputation of Moran. I'm not as convinced on Marshall. So, squat the look. This was quite the, quite the, quite the hit on Marshall. And look, here's the thing. We don't vet these candidates during campaign season. When is there ever going to be vetting of these candidates? So, I'd rather have the information. Yes, is it all motivated by the election? Of course it is. But ultimately, winner voters paying attention to decide on the character and the qualifications of whether these people deserve to be in public service. It's in campaign season.

59:19So, I'd rather see all of these stories about everybody in the vetting. And we're going to get, I promise there's going to be a deep dive into how Hamilton has managed his congregation and how he's managed. And there already have been stories like, they'll be plenty of that. But I think this one, you know, I've had Kansas on my radar a little bit longer than most people. And I think you now, you now see that Kansas is just inching ever so closer to the battleground. Not quite one of our top six races yet. But it may be getting closer than either Nebraska or my friends in New Hampshire. Hey, this episode of the Chuck Todd cast is brought to you by ethos. Look, let me tell you about life insurance. As you know, ethos is is an incredible portal for helping you find the right life insurance policy. I'm a huge believer in life insurance. I wouldn't have gotten to college in Washington DC without life insurance. My father had a policy buried somewhere that we discovered and it wasn't a lot of money, but it was an important bucket of money at a time that my mother newly widowed single mom may I'm 16.

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1:04:05Healthcare can feel complicated. That's why Optum uses technology to connect the people and processes that make healthcare easier more affordable and more effective. We're making it clearer for you to know exactly what your benefits cover and to help you better manage your health. We're coordinating care between your doctors and your technology. We believe better simpler healthcare is always possible. That's healthy optimism. That's Optum visit Optum.com to learn more. Top 5 Top 5 Top 5 Top 5 Top 5 All right, let's do a little top five list and some questions to wrap up this episode. So here's my top five list this week. And it's a it's the statewide sweeps. To me, blue wave blue tsunami right I've gone through my my various stages here for you, you know, blue Mirage blue wave blue tsunami. I'm going to leave the blue Mirage.

1:05:06A category aside for this list. I well actually you can look at it this way, but I think there's a pretty good measurement, particularly on the Democratic side, measuring this through the prism of the Democrats here. Of five states where a Democrat has a carry that state at least since 2012 for president. Where both a governor and a Senate races on the ballot. And as you know, I went through this about the importance of the top of the ticket, it's governor's races and many of these states and how important, you know, these gubernatorial nominees might be to bringing over either, you know, flawed candidates or lesser known candidates or maybe the states a little too red or you got to try to drag it over. But I thought a pretty good measurement. I wanted to give you the five states where I think Democrats at least have a 10% chance of of the dual sweep of winning the governor's race and the competitive Senate race in that state.

1:06:08And I think this is the way I would have you examine this top five. If somehow all Democrats swept all five of these states, I'm about to highlight here that are both featuring both, you know, competitive Senate and marginally competitive governor's races. I say marginally because that's either beholder, but they're not, they're not blowouts. They made the list because, you know, it is somewhat competitive. And in one case, it's actually a governor's race is more competitive than the Senate race and I'll get to that. But I think a good way to see which categories, if somehow Republican swept all five of these states and the dual statewide, well, then that would be blue mirage territory. And then the degrees of wave, depending on how many of these states, Democrats sweep, right? If they can get all of them, then it's as a blue tsunami. I'd argue three of the five if they swept you would call this either a very big wave bordering on blue tsunami. And obviously four or five is there. So I know I threw a bunch of caveats in there and you're like, what the hell are you talking about? Here's the bottom line. Here's the five red states.

1:07:17Right where Democratic presidential candidate has not carried that state since at least 2012. So it's been more than a decade since that state went blue in a presidential race. Here are my top five states where Democrats have a realistic chance of the sweep, both Senate and Gov. And again, it's like, I'm not Michigan doesn't make this list because hey, Joe Biden carried Michigan in 2020. And you know, there's, you know, it's, it's I think Democrats are favored to sweep both races, but the Senate race is definitely a coin flip. Ditto with a Minnesota or diddo with a that could see, you know, Democrats win both the governor's race or that, you know, it doesn't qualify. This is already sort of a blue or, you know, a purple state or a blue leaning state. These are these red states. Basically that in the Trump era have been out of reach for Democrats, particularly in the presidential level and either out of reach either in a Senate race or a Gov race or both. So coming in at number five is the state of Florida.

1:08:20Okay, Florida. This is the most unrealistic. This is probably the hardest of the of the states that were once competitive and haven't been in the Trump era, put Florida there. This is probably the tallest mountain for Democrats to climb. It's more, you know, they could in a blue wave scenario, even, you know, they could lose both the governor's race and the Senate race and still have a good year politically. You would say this, but I'm putting it on the list because I do think the governor's race is going to be close and I think if if somehow David Jolly pulls it off, we will say this was closer to being a big blue wave to slash do not mean I think Angie Nixon may be more competitive than folks realize doesn't have the resources and the national parties not going to put it there, but you may see more party realignment. Here, then you realize there so look it's it's sort of it's at the tail end. It is not a but but it's sort of, you know, because I say you have to have a top five list, Florida's fifth, but there's a big gap between four and five on my list.

1:09:25Number four on my list is Kansas. So Kansas is interesting because now they've never they haven't elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s. And obviously this is the the the current governor is term limited from seeking a third term law, Kelly, it is a Democrat. So this is a case where if Democrats are able to do something they haven't been able to do when they've won these governor's races, which is have a new Democrat replace the term limited Democrat, right, it didn't happen with civilians. And Kelly is trying to see, you know, has she permanently shift to the governing culture of the state now, we'll see, you know, her preferred candidate lost in the primary. The Democratic nominee is one in part due to the Kansas City Chiefs deal, but she's also been pretty front and center on against data center expansion and things like that. And then of course, you know, Republicans and Kansas are still having to carry the baggage of of San Brown back and those unpopular budget cuts and that's always a something that they got to hang on there.

1:10:32But the real sort of blue tsunami test here is, can Democrats actually win a Senate seat here, they've got a good candidate and Adam Hamilton, they've got they've been competitive before 2014 they had an independent Greg Orman who came, who came within single digits of Pat Roberts back in the day. Right around single digits was right in the 19 cut line on that, but I promise you, Democrats were able to flip this Senate seat and I think Roger Marshall's uniquely vulnerable here, he's not the he's not the most. Jerry Moran has been more front and center pushing back on Trump, Marshall will never push back on Trump. And I wonder if that's a problem for him if he's going to underperform in some of the suburban areas of Kansas City, Kansas and things like that. So I think the possibilities are there, but boy, you would be in blue tsunami territory of Democrats could win both in the same cycle, a Senate race and a government race. Number four, so I put Florida is as competitive, but very unlikely, Kansas competitive, mostly unlikely. My next three here are the more realistic sort of blue wave seats. And I think if two of these three sweeps came in for the Democrats on my top three here, you would call it a significant blue wave.

1:11:49So now if all three came in, I think you would need to classify this as blue tsunami. And I'm going to start with the state of Iowa, I'm putting Iowa number three instead of Texas, I debated back and forth. Number one, the minute I say it is going to be, you'll see why that was sort of the easier call here. But number three on my list is Iowa. So what I'm saying is, is I think this Senate seats a very, very tough hill for the Senate seats. Tough hill for Democrats to climb. I told you I gave you all the data behind it last week and a couple of monologues there. So I won't go into the dirty details there. But you know, all you have to do is listen to Rob San, the Democratic nominee and how he campaigns and how he speaks about party politics. You know, he talked about that for some reason, for some reason he was asked the question if, if you know, Senator Grassley couldn't finish, couldn't finish his seat, you know, would he, who would he appoint, you know, what party would he have pointed Democrat to replace Grassley and said, no, he'd, he'd appoint an independent.

1:12:52It was important for him to get that out there, right? He's trying to send a message to those that are not happy with the Democratic brand in Iowa that he's a different type of Democrat that he's more of an independent minded Democrat. But that's also a reminder why in Iowa, I think it's going to be very much harder for a Democrat to win a Senate seat than a GovC governor's individual person a Senate seat is sort of a party caucus votes, right? You know, and it's, it's in some ways voters usually, you know, are more likely to pick to prioritize Jersey color over an individual than they do in a governor's race. Look, Republicans also have a very weak governor, a gubernatorial nominee. I mean, this is a lane guy is having to make the case that he's an actual Iowa, when you're less than 60 days from election and you've still got to answer serious questions about how much of an Iowa you are in a place that is very proud of being of living in that state. I just think it's a, I don't want to say it's unwinnable because it's a red leaning state.

1:13:55But Zach lanes as close to being an unelectable nominee as you can come up with in this current situation. So a Democratic sweep here of both the gubernatorial and the Senate race definitely is indicated indicative of a blue wave in my opinion. And I have a feeling if both of those come in, then, then there's going to be sweeps with the next potentially sweeps with the next two states we're talking about here. And I'm going to get to the part where the state that I think some people are going to feel as if is an impossibility and that's Texas. We already know the center race is close with Calarico having a slight advantage. The more remarkable race that has fallen under the radar because of Ken Paxton and Calarico is the governor's race. Greg Abbott's trying to do something nobody's ever done in Texas went a fourth term for governor, a fourth four year term for governor. That is, you know, you could just look at recent history. Fourth terms are very difficult to get particularly for consecutive terms.

1:14:58Sometimes it's a lot easier to do with the way Jerry Brown did it or to do it the way Terry Branstad did it. You win a couple of times, you leave, you come back and win two more times. But for straight, right? Mario Cuomo was trying for a fourth until it sort of blew up in his face. So I just think there's a natural fatigue, right? Throw in the fatigue with the national party. Throw in the disappointment with, you know, you have a divided Republican party in the state, right? There's, you have both a rising Democratic electorate in the state and a divided Republican party, particularly on issues like the way this voucher situation has gone. Education cuts very similar to what we see what we saw develop in Kansas where really a divided Republican party gave Democrats an open. And essentially Democrats moved to become the Republican light party as far as state government is concerned. And there was a lot of former Republicans who became Democrats who have helped fuel this movement as well.

1:16:00I'm not saying you're there where you have Republicans switching parties in Texas, but you do have this divide that exists. And I think that is, I mean, you saw it here. So look, I think the data center flip flop I have it was an acknowledgement that this racist way too close for comfort. Would I bet on habit losing? No, I would not. All right, I think that I think there's a pretty hard ceiling on this, but it's, but I say pretty hard. Right? I don't think the concrete is completely dry. So maybe, maybe you can break through, but certainly if Democrats swept both of these, you would say you would say Blu-Sanam. I mean, I just think the likelihood is greater than we are, we fully appreciate. And I, you know, look, do I think either Iowa or Texas are likely for Democrats to sweep those two top state red races? I don't. But you're in like the 15 to 20% chance range. Right? Say, ain't nothing, you know, and when you're in one and six, one and seven possibilities here, that's a, that can happen.

1:17:03That's realistic. That's where Trump was sitting. He had about a one in four, one in five chance of becoming president. He became president. So, you know, that, you know, I would not, I would not dismiss that. But the number one state, and to me, frankly, it'll be a test about Blu- you might argue Blue Mirage or Blue Wave will be if somehow Democrats get shut out of Ohio. Democrats win one and lose one or Democrats sweep the governor's race in the Senate race. If atmospherics are as strong as I think they're developing, then I expect the Democrats to sweep in Ohio. I think that the unique nature that, you know, big tech is, is very unpopular with the middle of the electorate. Vivek Ramaswami, the Republican leading the ticket, has kind of, you know, made his, you know, Pete, that's what he's known for is being a tech entrepreneur, very close with that industry. What was a net positive for him and a Republican primary when he was running for president might be seen as a net negative now with swing voters and independence.

1:18:10Or even some members of MAGA who are, are, are grown a little bit leery of big tech here. And so I think, I think Ohio is the best chance Democrats have of pulling a sweep in a state that they have not carried in a presidential election since 2012. And we're just, you know, and it would, I think a sweep would indicate you would put this state. By the way, in all five of these cases, if Democrats sweep the governor in center race, I think it puts that state in play in the presidential. Because to do both means you fundamentally have adjusted something. You've shifted an independent electorate or at least it's fluid enough that it is worth contesting in a presidential year. So in another way, it's is a, you know, the top five red states, the Democrats are going to another way to look at this top five red states that Democrats are going to learn about whether they should target them in 28. I put them in the same order. They sweep Ohio. Ohio goes into the battleground. You sweep Texas, Texas goes into the presidential background. You sweep Iowa.

1:19:12Iowa was back in the presidential battleground. I believe the same thing with Kansas and Florida. So that might be, you know, as I'm talking out loud here, they even better rate the five red states that depending on how successful Democrats are could end up in the presidential battleground come 20, 28. And number one in this list for me is Ohio number two is Texas. And I think if you look at it, those absolutely you could see the scenario where that possibility becomes more real than we think after all at this point in time in 2006 Virginia was still seen as a reach by Democrats. Not just in a Senate race, but even being targeted in a presidential race. That Democrats win the Senate race in 06. Suddenly Democrats decide, hey, maybe they maybe it's time to put Virginia and Colorado into the battleground. Low and be old. Virginia and Colorado are now semi reliably blue states. So there you go. There's the top five list this week.

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1:24:44Healthcare can feel complicated. That's why Optum uses technology to connect the people and processes that make healthcare easier, more affordable and more effective. We're making it clearer for you to know exactly what your benefits cover. And to help you better manage your health, we're coordinating care between your doctors and your technology. We believe better, simpler healthcare is always possible. That's healthy optimism. That's Optum. Visit Optum.com to learn more. As Chuck. Alright, let's do a little ass chuck. These from Hermosa Beach, California, in the wake of 9-11 some argued the attacks should have been treated as criminal acts rather than acts of war in the spirit of your Ford Nixon retrospective. How might history have unfolded differently if we had taken that approach? Would we still have invaded Afghanistan? And could it have blunted the case for the subsequent invasion of Iraq? I know the national desire for vengeance probably made that impossible, but it feels

1:25:47worth examining, keep up your edifying and affordable work while I appreciate that. Todd, great name. Obviously. So this is actually the subject of the column I'm working on this week, a little bit of fallout from 9-11 and I'm focusing on our loss of privacy and how that happened. The timing, the growth of the tech industry and our comfort with giving up some privacy in exchange for security ended up putting us in a bad relationship with big tech. Essentially the short form version of the column moment, right? But it's interesting what you the idea that if we had treated this as a criminal act rather than as an act of war. So one of the what ifs I have done is what if Gore had won the 2000 presidential in 9-11 still have it. You know, there were a lot of Democrats that were arguing for, hey, let's do this in

1:26:48a court of law. Let's do this like we did Oklahoma City. Let's do this. So I do think that there's a chance that Gore might have gone down that road as president more so than Bush wanted to. But you know, I think no matter what we had have ended up in Afghanistan, I mean for one is you're not wrong about there's the need of, whoa, who do we, we got a, we got a, we got a, we got to get somebody for this, right? We got a blow something up. So we were going to do something. You're not wrong about that. And an investigation was going to take us all the way to Afghanistan. So the question is, would we have treated Afghanistan as sort of all special forces, right? Not tried to put the Taliban essentially as an enemy of our state in order to deal with

1:27:49this. You know, and you know, certainly now that we're have, I guess, sort of, you know, this now diplomatic relations with the Taliban, you know, it does seem odd now in retrospect, right? Look, the bigger point of your question is, had we looked at it as just focusing on the act itself and who is behind the act itself? I'm not sure we would have kept this as a criminal investigation, but if we had just stayed focused on disrupting al-Qaeda wherever, wherever we were finding them, right? Kind of like the Israelis, you know, with Munich and how they dealt with that. I don't think it takes us to Iraq, right? Like that seemed to be, right?

1:28:50Iraq feel it and it looks worse and worse, right? History, you know, makes the decision look worse and worse all the time. And there just wasn't a connection, right? And the attempts to create a connection to with Iraq, to al-Qaeda might have still been there, right? There still might have been forces within the government who wanted to make that case, who believed these terrorist organizations were working together more than they weren't. But we just made this about al-Qaeda, you know, is the situation of the Middle East more stable today. You know, it's funny. I don't think Saddam is still in power or the bathists are still in power. I think the Arab swing would have overthrown Iraq. Now you might say it would probably be a government that would be very close to Iran. Oh wait, that's what we have. A government that's very close to Iran. So my point being is that I think Iraq was probably not as easy as it was to topple Hussain.

1:29:51I think it tells you that he wouldn't have survived the Arab swing. In that brief period, had we not touched, had we ended up deciding not to invade Iraq? And that ultimately is still the original sin of this one, right? Like of all the mistakes we made after 9-11, many of them to me are very small. You can, you see how it happened and it might have happened no matter what, right? We were in a certain period. We were, the country was nervous. We were willing to give up privacy and exchange for security. So many of the things that happened, I think, stay happening. It is interesting that if you've noticed, we're back to treating the 9-11, hijackers as criminals again with a judge and we're still trying to, we're now, now all of the information that's been gotten about Khalid Sheikh Muhammad has suddenly been thrown out by a court,

1:30:53if you've been following that at all. So it is, that was the other problem is I don't know with, with the decision and I think it would have, this would have happened under no matter the administration. We were going to strengthen the intel community's ability to get information. There or not it was going to be information you could introduce in a court of law was, was not the priority at the time. So the likelihood that we would have gotten coerced information or information you never would have been able to use in a trial might have also made treating it as a criminal act very difficult as well. So anyway, it's a, I think it's a fair question. It's a good time to have this conversation. It's a good time to be thinking about alternative. But ultimately, right, the biggest what if is, what if we had just stayed focused on dealing with the hijackers and the organization that was behind the plot, Al Qaeda, and just

1:31:56stayed laser focused on that. My Afghanistan be a better country today because of it. Might the Middle East be more stable today? I don't, that I, maybe. I think in hindsight, creating a global war on terror didn't work. And we're certainly now weaker today because of it. It's certainly a contributor to the weakness today. Donald Trump doesn't become president without his inability to, he said, surely cast an entire faction of the Republican Party into the dust benefit of history, which is what he did. So all of it let, you know, had to happen first to get to the moment we're into the time. And if you think we're in a bad moment, then, then we made some pretty bad decisions in the first few years after 9.11. All right. Next question comes from letitia w and she writes a check long time listener. First time caller from Pennsylvania's 10th district.

1:32:58Recent coverage of John Federer me got me wondering, do voters have any recourse if they believe an elected official is simply refusing to do the job or represent their constituents? Should there be some mechanism such as a recall or a special election rather than voters having to wait out an entire term, especially a six year Senate term. Thanks for everything you do. Keep calling them as you see them, regardless of the letter after their name. Thanks, letitia. Well, letitia, the bottom line is there is recall elections for federal office holders are just not constitutional. There are a handful of states that have tried it. There was a group that wanted to recall Bob and then does during his the height of his the cadillos in New Jersey and a court threw it out. It's the same. It's just like the term limits laws that a bunch of states tried to pass in the 90s were all deemed unconstitutional for Congress because if you don't put it in the constitution, it's unconstitutional, right?

1:33:58There are no term limits in the constitution and US Senate terms are set for six years. Now, what's interesting is in my little research on your question here is that in our previous constitution, the articles of Confederation, there was a recall provision for federal office holders. It got deliberately left out when they did the new constitution, the 1789 constitution. So it was considered and they decided not to. So you don't on a US Senator, there is no recall provision, right? Many states have can you can do recalls for state or even city elected officials and we see this all the time, but there you need a constitutional amendment period. There's nothing else. There is no other work around was one other work around to get rid of a US Senator. Two thirds of the Senate can expel a US Senator, right? And that was something Bob Hackwood was going to do was going to happen to him.

1:35:01He likely would have been expelled, but I believe he resigned before there would be an expulsion vote. So most senators, well, so far, most of the time, the threat of expulsion and the vote counting on expulsion convinces a Senator to just go ahead and resign on that front. So no, you're stuck with Fatterman through the end of now his terms up in 28 and we shall see what happens, right? But he is, it is a sick and it was designed this way, right? The whole point is is that you didn't want the Senate to be at the whim of sort of instant gratification, you know, where where mob rule can sort of grab hold of things, you know, over a six month period, you the point of having these longer terms was so they literally had the political space to be the cool to be what the front pounders intended, which

1:36:01was the cooling saucer, which is why you can see a Senator get elected under one scenario in one type of atmosphere. Six years later, the atmosphere completely changed and they may not fit that atmosphere at all, right? You know, Fatterman was was not an ordinary politician and that was a you was something that mattered a lot to Democrats in in 2022 and in 2021, especially in the wake of Trump getting elected. Now, he might not he's obviously not going to fit the mood of where the democratic electorate is going to be, but who knows, maybe he fits the mood of where Republicans want to want to go, which is they want to have a kind of classic candidates or who knows. So I'm not going to declare the end of Fatterman's political career here, but I do get the sense he doesn't like being a Senator. I think he enjoyed being the mayor of Bratwick, that's maybe a hell of a lot more than he's enjoyed either being Lieutenant Governor or a U.S. Senator. But sadly, no recall election, but you can start the constitutional amendment for it,

1:37:03let it show. All right, happy week one. Next question comes from a familiar email or bill S in Newberg, Oregon, the fighting sixth, as he calls it, who doesn't want their congressional district known as the fighting whatever, right? Isn't that what the Colbert gave us? Everything was the fighting six. I mean, the fighting eighth of Virginia, happy week one, my favorite games where you mass over Rutgers and Western Michigan, almost over Michigan, certainly better than watching my mariters lose to the A's. You often encourage politicians to speak American, so I'm curious. Why do you sometimes seem reluctant to plainly use the word racism, whether discussing Vivek Rameswamy with John Kasich or Byron Donalds under performance in North Florida, thanks and go U, Bill S. And it's a fair thing to point out. I try to be careful about motive, right? You know, it looks like racism, looks like lying. If I do it, I try to put it that way because I do think there's certain words that when

1:38:09you accuse somebody of it, there's no un, you don't unring the bell. And you know, it's, I don't, I'm not trying to get people canceled. And I don't want to presume, you know, I look, I see the pattern. A person of color has a harder time winning over, winning over a conservative constituency in the South. It looks like a candidate of color has a problem winning over a conservative constituency in the Midwest, right? Michigan, and possibly in Ohio. But if you're talking 5% of an entire faction of an electorate, I don't want to look like I'm painting an entire electorate as racist or an entire party as racist. So that's what you're, you're fair to pick that up and you're right.

1:39:12I am cautious on certain words, racism, you know, when accusing somebody of racism. I think it's easier to say something as racist. You're behaving in the way I racist would be. I thought I've always thought the one of one of the few positive legacies of Andrew Gillum and his gubernatorial campaign in 18 is in this great retort. When Ron DeSantis took issue with being called a racist, he said, I'm not saying you're a racist. I'm saying racist. I think that's the line I try to walk. And if I, and I'm sure I have failed and I understand some people like, well, you should soften. You got to tell it like it is. Well, I think you tell it like it is, but I don't like my motives question. You know, some people who will assume that I, I have a certain take on him and they'll say, well, it's because you're wife's this or it's because your parents are that or because

1:40:14your kids are this and it's like, I don't want motive to get in the way of the analysis. And you know, people, again, when you ring certain bells in, in, you imply motive. It's why, you know, I famously didn't say liar to Kelly and Conway. I said falsehoods because again, it's motive. Maybe they're that delusional and they actually believe they didn't commit the murders. Maybe they actually believe that's that they only dreamed of murdering their ex-wife. So it is, there's always a 1% chance that there's self delusion in there and it's not motive or whatever. So anyway, you can say I'm creating semantics or I'm not, but the minute you're that declarative, then there's a whole group of people I'm trying to talk to and listen to

1:41:15reason that may tune me out. So you know, look man, I'm, as I always say, I'm trying to, I'm trying to widen my aperture and I'm trying to widen the space here for us to have the conversations we need to have to make a better, a better democracy and a better America. All right. Uh, by the way, I have to add you, you, you talked about UMass over Rutgers, which was fantastic in the, in the Western Michigan, Michigan game was, which is not a well played game. I think there's no doubt what the game of the weekend was and it's the old misleave game. That was something else. That was, that was two good offenses, I think, two questionable defenses, I think. SMU FSU was certainly close, but it did not have what Louisville and Ole Miss had in that. And in many ways, SMU FSU felt like a game where there was a good team making a lot

1:42:17of mistakes. SMU and a bat, a mediocre team not knowing how to take advantage of opportunities in, in FSU. Um, but I have to say, I think my favorite game of the weekend and, and in fairness, you may have written this before the Louisville Ole Miss game, but I think that was, if you're just pure entertainment value, game of the week was, was I think, uh, Louisville Ole Miss. All right. Greetings from Texas for, if the midterms produced a 50, 50 Senate and a Republican Senator later resigned, becomes incapacitated or otherwise unable to serve, what happens to control of the chamber would Republicans retain control despite having one fewer Senator or can control shift to Democrats of the show in the College of Paul Talk. Cades looked fantastic. Can't only imagine your thoughts on what happened in an Arbor Saturday night, John. Well, hopefully you, uh, like what I said, I'm a Monday pod about. I do think we've got a, there is something, there is a fix we can make to increase, you know, to basically increase the credibility of officiating in College of Paul's.

1:43:17We got to take the conferences out of the, out of being in charge of officials. Um, and they replay and all of that stuff. Just get conferences out of it. Just one less conspiracy rabbit hole for people to go to. Um, well, look, we have provisions and you wait, the governor would replace of the state and you are, you got to appoint somebody. Now let's, let's, let's talk about the two places with two of, with two fairly old senators. One of whom is currently not been able to make it to the floor of the Senate in a couple of, in a couple of months where there's a Democratic governor and in Iowa where there is going likely to be a Democratic governor. Um, and of course, if you just heard my top five list with, uh, with Iowa in there, you heard about the question Rob Sand was asked about replacing Chuck Grassley. What would he do? And he said, well, I'd appointed independent, which would only like, that would be fascinating.

1:44:19Well, look, I mean, it's, you know, majority is decided by the party that has the most senators with them. So if you're at a 50, 50 Senate and the scenario you describe happens, the two likely is candidates, right? That would really make this complicated. But Kentucky's the most complicated because Kentucky legislature passed a law saying that the governor has to replace with the party of the, of the deceased senator. But that is, I don't, that has never been tested in state courts. And I think it, if the state constitution simply gives the governor the power of, of appointment. So I'm not so sure. I think that if McConnell somehow, and look, McConnell's getting replaced. So, so let that's, it's a, it's less of a, it's less of any issue going into the next Congress. Since he's not going to be there. But with Grassley, you know, if we're going to use that example, he's up in 28,

1:45:22but something happens from in 27, we're sitting with a 50, 50 Senate. What does Rob say and do, right? And what does that independent do? You know, you know, what the zeitgeist would be on the left. And you know what the zeitgeist would be on the right. That it would, it would put, it would be interesting to see the, how sand would handle the pressure of that moment. But ultimately, there would be no vacancy. The, the governor of the DC Senator immediately needs to appoint somebody. You saw, darling Graham got appointed within, she was a senator, I think within 36 hours. They had her already sworn in with something that quick. So this is, you know, that's how absolute the, the governor's power is to appoint a temporary replacement. Now, legislatures can decide, you know, some states you have to have a special election within 90 days. I think that's what Massachusetts did. Others, it's the next federal election, but there would be no vacancy.

1:46:27It would be an immediate feeling. But, right? Party of the governor, party of the person that, you know, if that differs, that's when you start to see some, quite a bit of horse trading. All right, last question for the, for this episode, Anthony and California's 30th congressional district. He says, I'm hoping to become a member of the two timers club here. I really got into college football last year in part because of your podcast right on. Welcome. I want more Californians into college football. And I'm glad to see Cal, UCLA, USC, Stanford, all starting to invest real dollars into football. So who knows? Uh, and he said, uh, in part because of your podcast and it became something I love talking about with my brother, who sadly passed away earlier this summer. I'm so sorry to hear that. Um, so thank you for continuing to be a source for me to learn from and enjoy the sport as a Steelers fan. Which quarterbacks should I be keeping an eye on this season if Pittsburgh ends up looking for a first round.

1:47:28QB next year. Thanks Anthony. Well, first of all, uh, Anthony, I think you ought to. I think I'm, I'm weirdly bullish on Drew Aller who is the backup to Rogers who I think's going to start three games this year, five games this year. Um, what if Drew Aller is just the type of sort of Pittsburgh quarterback you've gotten used to that knows how to read a defense play action pass sort of. It's got a little Rothless burger in him. He's just sort of, you know, it's, it's certainly more of a 20th century type quarterback, not necessarily a 21st century, but I say that, you know, what's the Pittsburgh way you want to have a, when Pittsburgh's good, they have a great offensive line, a great running game and a good quarterback. So I would not, I would like to see Aller. I'd like to see what he can do. Uh, but I do think he has to have a good offensive line. Uh, but look, the quarterbacks, you know, um, there's some, there, here's what's happening.

1:48:34I think you now, you know, the quarterback position has always been incredibly important and it's even more so over the last 20 years. You are now getting a concentration of great athletes who are choosing to be, you know, it used to be, you didn't always put your best athlete in a quarterback. You might put in football. You might put your best athlete at running back. You might put them in at wide receiver. And if you put it in a quarterback, it's because you ran a certain type of offense. Well, now we've mainstreamed the idea of dual threat quarterbacks, quarterbacks who could run pass on the running all those things. And so I just think we've, college feels like it's never been deeper, uh, in the quarterback ranks and then quarterback development. And I think the idea now that, that college quarterbacks are going to stay in college because they can make good money. Frankly, better money in college if you're a top quarterback than the first couple of years as an NFL pro because of the way they've structured their system. You're going to get like guys like Bo Nex who had 60 starts in college and certainly knew what the hell he was, you know, the learning curve was just was was was much shorter for him.

1:49:45And within, you know, two years, he's, he's guiding them as a as a contender to play off guy. So, um, look, I think, uh, obviously I think Miami's quarterback looks like he's got all the tools just incredible touch, super accurate. Um, and this is now his third stop where he's impressed. I look at it. It's the same reason why I'm so bullish on cam ward and back and now, uh, men says that he did this at two lane under one coaching staff. He did it at Duke under another coaching staff. He's already doing it. Miami and our third. So what does that tell you? He processes information quickly, right, just like cam ward, he went through three different systems and seemed to succeed and get better each year. Car said back is now showing that ability to do that. I think that in a weird way, these quarterbacks that can go from different systems. Um, that's who I want in my NFL team, right? That means they're coachable. You know the way how transient NFL coaching is both at the top, but particularly at the coordinator level.

1:50:46You're going to go through different systems, right? And if you're not easily adaptable to new systems, you're not going to be a successful NFL quarterback. So I look at those guys and, and you know, so men's looks like he's got that NFL arm at Miami. Dante Moore looks like he's got it at Oregon, but I'm not as sold on more yet as others are. I think he's got all the tools, but you can have a lot of tools, but they may it may not all come together. Go watch a South Carolina game and this kid, Lord, the worst sellers. He's another one. It's got all this talent. You're just, you know, what happens if you had a little bit more talent around him. But wow, does he got a lot? I'm not sure. Levitt is going to translate as well to the pros, which is the kid who did great at LSU. And I worry about Trinidad Chamberlain's size a little bit. But boy, his ability to throw the run is really impressive as well. So, you know, if you're, I look at it as a who would fit the Steelers mindset? Right. There's also like I always think there's just certain fits, right. Certain cultural fits. Right. I tell you, there's something about archmating of the Steelers that would feel correct. I don't know why I think that. Right. He's a big kid. Right.

1:52:03He's got a little Rothschild's burger because he's also mobile the way both Ross of burger and Bradshaw were. So, you know, maybe, maybe it's arch that you should be focused on. But I'm going to end with where I began. Don't give up on Drew Aller. You never know when your future sitting on your own bench. Right. How many, you know, just as to see how to see Hawks. I guess that's like ask the San Francisco 49ers and the random seventh round quarterback that turned out to be a franchise quarterback and Brock pretty. So it's a and there's something about Aller Penn State guy Steelers. I don't know. It just maybe I'm wanted to work because it just feels like such the right fit for the Pittsburgh fan base. Right. He's got the grittiness that you want for a Steelers quarterback. So let's not give up on Drew Aller just yet. All right. With that, welcome back to the Wednesday podcast. So I'm giving you we're giving you updates every single day of the week. Monday's Tuesday's it's super Tuesday with Chris Aliza Wednesday. Another standalone podcast Thursday. Another standalone podcast. And of course on the weekend, you got news fear.

1:53:22So plenty of places to get what I hope is a little better informed about American politics. However, it looks on any given day with that. I appreciate you coming here. This podcast is politics for the rest of us. I'll see you 24 hours. Did you know every 36 minutes a child in the US is diagnosed with cancer, which means some of the bravest warriors you'll ever meet aren't professional athletes are superheroes. They're the kids in this fight. That's why I'm proud to support Hyundai Hope on Wheels. For the past 28 years with support from Hyundai, their dealers and every new Hyundai sold. Hope on Wheels has contributed over $300 million to childhood cancer research. Helping save more than 40,000 kids, but we're not done yet. Let's bring every warrior home join our fight at Hyundai warriors.com. This is Tony A.O. from the real report with Tony A.O. and Uncle murder. You haven't noticed how everything keeps going up. Grant streaming even extra so such a favorite burrito spot. But with boost mobile, you don't have to play the Willis go up soon game. Boost mobile offers an unlimited talk, text and data planned at a price that'll never go up. It's the same price you'll pay for life. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up only at boost mobile.

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