Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Coalition Is Fracturing As Iran War Unravels + New Polling Is A Warning Sign For GOP

Chuck Todd opens with the bluntest assessment yet of the Iran war as it enters its third week: America's position as leader of the free world is unraveling in real time, the risk of mission creep is enormous, and we are now seeing exactly why every previous president chose not to attack Iran. Trump is ranting and begging allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. He notes that Trump is even angling for a joint operation with China to police the strait — a surreal proposition given the broader geopolitical rivalry — and that Trump is learning the hard way why you don't alienate allies before starting a war that requires their help. The Director of Counterterrorism has resigned over the conflict, DNI Tulsi Gabbard is performing rhetorical contortions to signal she doesn't believe in the war while keeping her job, and the administration has entered what Chuck calls the "cover your ass" stage. He argues that Trump's coalition has been fracturing for six months, that America is demonstrably less secure today than before the strikes began, and that this war — which has confirmed to the world that America is truly alone — could ultimately prove more damaging than Vietnam or Iraq. He closes by noting softening poll numbers for Republicans like Lindsey Graham and Vivek Ramaswamy, and that Maine Governor Janet Mills has gone sharply negative against progressive challenger Graham Platner in their Senate primary — a sign that the vetting process is heating up in ways that will ultimately be healthy for the party.

Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 statewide campaigns from the state of Illinois and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:00 Iran war keeps getting worse for Trump, risk of mission creep is high

05:15 America’s place as “Leader of the Free World” is unraveling 

06:00 The military part is going well, the diplomatic part is a disaster

06:45 We’re seeing the reasons previous presidents didn’t attack Iran

07:30 Director of Counterterrorism resigns over the war

09:00 Trump is either not getting the truth or being told what he wants to hear

10:00 Gabbard argues Trump has mandate despite not getting 50% of the vote

11:00 Gabbard says only Trump can determine what is an "imminent threat”

11:45 Gabbard wants she signal she doesn’t believe in war, but keep her job

12:45 We’re in the “cover your ass” stage of the war

15:30 Many MAGA true believers like Joe Kent & MTG wanted no more wars

18:00 If you can’t serve the president, resigning is the right thing to do

18:45 We’re less secure today than before the war started

19:30 Trump’s coalition has been fracturing for six months

21:30 Trump’s ranting and begging for help with the Strait of Hormuz

23:00 Strait of Hormuz has always been the Iranian regime’s leverage

24:00 Securing the strait requires boots on the ground

24:45 Trump is learning the hard way why you don’t alienate allies

26:30 If the regime stays in place, it’ll look like Trump retreated

27:30 This war has been confirmation that America is alone

29:15 This war could be more damaging that Vietnam or Iraq 2

30:00 We need real diplomacy and there hasn’t been any of it

30:45 Trump angling for joint operation with China which is… weird

31:15 Trump wants a way out, but boxed himself in

32:30 We’re starting to see softening support for other elected Republicans

33:15 Polls show Lindsey Graham & Vivek Ramaswamy’s support way down

34:30 Janet Mills decides to go sharply negative against Graham Platner

36:45 The vetting in the primary will be healthy for the Democrats

41:15 Abortion may take a backseat to economy, but could affect midterms

43:00 ToddCast Top 5 statewide races in Illinois

44:00 Illinois has produced 2 presidents and sent 4 governors to prison

45:45 #1 Obama’s 2004 senate campaign

51:15 #2 1992 senate campaign

54:15 1960 presidential Kennedy v Nixon

57:15 1984 Simon vs. Percy

59:45 1986 Democratic primary chaos

1:03:15 Honorable mentions

1:05:15 Ask Chuck

1:05:30 Are we normalizing the denigration of female journalists by Trump?

1:09:45 Why do politics feel so much harder now, and we can’t find agreement?

1:11:45 How much did gutting State Dept. lead to evacuation debacle in middle east?

1:15:30 Did Spanberger tee up a wave in the next election with gun control legislation?

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