Closing Bell Overtime: Markets React to Oil Risks, OpenAI Expands Into Checkout and Investors Size Up the Consumer 3/5/26

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The Bell is bringing it into the training day at the NYSE Congressional

Medal of Honor Society, ringing the bell and at the Nasak, Nasak, Texas.

In front of the Alamo, I think, doing the honors there. Welcome to Closing Bell over time.

Our life in studio would be at the Nasak Market site, I'm a listly along with Mike Santoli.

Stocks calling today as crew prices rise, down, down about 800 points, the S&P 500, down about

40 points in the Nasak, down about half a percent. The Russell though, the hardest hit,

off by about 2%. Some of this year's leaders were the big lagers,

industrials, materials and staples, consumer discretionary meantime,

eking out some gains. Our market's team is all over today's action and earnings.

Pippa Stevens is following the big moves in oil. Rick Santelli watching the bond market,

and three earnings reports were watching Gap, Costco and Marvel, the options market,

pricing in a move of about 10% for Marvel stock. But let's start on today's market moves with

Christina Parts and Evelies, Christina. You guys talked about markets under pressure again

today, but the Nasak did hold up a little bit better than its peers dropping up. A propped up,

I should say, by Big Tech and Software, Amazon, Microsoft among the brighter spots,

keeping the composite from actually sinking further today. On the software front, you had

Oracle, CrowdStrike, Salesforce, all closing higher with that rotation, though,

coming at the expense of semiconductors. The spread between software and chips now is that

it's widest eight day level on record. Even Broadcom's bullish a 2027 outlook for AI,

not enough to help or lift the chip space. Elsewhere, energy is just one of the two S&P

sectors in the green today, led by APA Corp Devon Energy and EOG resources, all in that gas

plays, by the way. Risk appetite remains depressed for obvious reasons, and you can see it in the

most crowded trades. The momentum ETF down more than 3% on the week with memory names also lower,

those high flying AI bets among the first, unfortunately, to get dumped when investors pull back.

And the sell-off extending into retail today, dollar general Costco, Walmart, all closing in the

red, American Eagles, well, but that had a lot to do with earnings just yesterday. You can see

shares down almost 14%. Guys, Christina, thanks, Christina Parts, Nevilleus. Mike, I don't know

what you thought of the market sales. It felt like at any point in time, it could have moved in

any direction. Sure. There's a lot of conviction in anything. Highly sensitive, both the headlines

and both to itself. Basically, when you see these divergent moves under the surface,

they have a volatility index of 24. That implies like a percent and a half move per day. That's

what that statistically means. Jeffrey's trading desk said on a scale of 1 to 10, the portfolio

pain today among their clients was a 10. Now, that doesn't make a lot of sense. We're down

half a percent in the S&P. We've had much worse days, but I think that tells you that the

consensus positions are getting punished and the things that people thought they could leave

behind over short are rising. To me, it makes it harder to draw a message out of this market on

a macro basis. And I think it's because nobody has a clear sense of where we are in terms of what

the ceiling is for this move in oil. And we traded it at this level, closed at this level of the S&P

four times before the invasion of Iran, right? So does that mean that we're all just kind of

being too hopeful and thinking this is this passes and nothing is changing? Or is it say that we're

at battle-tested market that's resilient? Could be one or the other. I guess it's just a half glass

half full. Yeah, and each day is its own kind of battle in itself. Yeah, exactly. Let's get

some more on crude. Of course, that was a big driver in today's market session. WTI crude price

is breaking above 80 bucks a barrel. The highest level since January 2025. Peter Stevens has got

the details. Pippa. Hey, Melissa. So at the high WTI topped 81 with traffic in the

straight of Hormuz still at a standstill. And the clock is ticking as barrels quickly pile up in

storage. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have partial bypass options. But Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain

do not. Now this chart from Kepler gives the storage picture. Saudi Arabia has 67 million barrels

of storage. And they have 35 million barrels of space left, meaning they have spaced for seven

days if exports stopped. UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are slightly better positioned, but Iraq

has just three days. And they have already started shutting in production as space runs out.

Now the straight is also key for products with 4.3 million barrels of products. Moving through the

waterway daily last year, those markets are looking increasingly tight with our bob at a two-year high.

And European diesel on pace for its best week on record up some 44 percent. The gasoline

crack spread topping $30 today from 14 at the beginning of the year. Melissa.

Pippa, are there measures by the administration that the administration could take outside of

releasing from the SPR to release some of the pressure of energy prices being so high?

Yeah, Melissa. So there are a couple of other things. They could relieve sanctions on Russian oil,

for example. They could also release some of the Venezuelan oil that has been bought and sell

those into the open market to U.S. producers. There's also an addition to the SPR,

potentially a coordinated SPR release with other IEA parties, although it does seem that

appetite for that might not be that large given Europe's stance in when it comes to the U.S.

and Iran. Another thing potentially that they could do is a gasoline tax holiday,

but clearly with the national average now crossing above 320 per barrel and then diesel prices

rising even more. And that, of course, is a tax on the consumer. This is very much at the

forefront and likely will work to see more announcements on that front, especially since the

announcement about providing more time insurance for tankers transiting the strait. That has not

come to fruition quite yet still awaiting clarity on that. And each day that tankers can't transit

the strait, the more impact we're going to see on oil and product prices. All right. Pippa,

thanks. Pippa Stevens, let's get to Rick Centella at the CME with a look at yields and what

a jump we saw today, Rick. Yes, and something Pippa said should ring true to every central banker

that may be listening or watching. What's going on in energy is a tax on consumers. So this notion

that you may have to raise interest rates to combat higher energy prices to mean makes very little

sense. Let's look at a chart going back two weeks and let's put oil, boons, two year, and our two

year. And you can see it's all about oil. I have sources that don't trade oil that have oil as

a hedge against everything. So one thing we gained from that chart is short maturities around the

globe have a much larger response on the interest rate side than the longer maturities due to what

the implications may be to central bankers. Now, if we look at two weeks of the dollar index versus

crude, it's the same dynamic. That dollar is following it right on the way up. And finally, if we look

at two year and ten year year to date in the US, look at the difference. A two years within striking

distance of their high yield close at 361, the ten year is still lower on the year. Melissa, Mike,

back to you. Rick, thanks very much. Well, despite the big intraday moves we are seeing, the down

and the S&P are flat for the year with the S&P just 3% off. It's all time high. So should investors

adjust their strategy given the volatility or look past the noise and focus on the underlying

fundamentals. Let's bring in BDA capital partners, CEO and CIO, Barbara Duran and Charles

Pobrinskoy, vice chairman of aerial investments. Welcome to both Charlie. I'm going to go to you

right there because I wonder if you'd want to speak through us to Rick, who's also in Chicago

about whether oil is inflationary and your general sense of concern around whether we may

have another inflation problem coming. Yeah, interest rates are up not because central bankers

want them to be up, they're up because inflation is going to be higher. We have lots of forces

all pushing inflation higher, small each by themselves, but together significant. So we have

massive federal deficits. We have a war in the Middle East. We have less immigration, which puts

pressure on wages. We have tariffs, which are a form of tax. All of those things are directionally

inflationary and inflation is going to be stubbornly high. And so when people lend money to the US

government, they see that and they're going to demand a higher rate. That's what's going on with

interest rates. That's why there's no flight to safety right now, which normally would send

interest rates down. People are demanding higher rates because of higher expectations for inflation.

And then just just to follow that quickly, Charlie, how does that inform how you would want to be

investing in the stock market right now because it's not as if the yields and absolute terms are

at onerous levels, even oil. We've been here before, not that long ago. You're absolutely right.

$80 is not on an inflation adjusted basis. We've been much, much higher than this before.

So this by itself isn't going to be that inflationary. But what it is going to do is it is going to,

there are certain kinds of companies, which I like to refer to as hard companies. It's just like

hardware and software. These are hard companies with hard assets. Those are the kind of companies

that tend to do well in inflationary times or at least not be hurt by it. And then those same

companies tend to have less obsolescence risk from AI. So there's a whole category of companies

energy at the top of the list of a barrel of oil is just as productive, just as important

in an AI world as it was before. Same thing for the value of your house, your car, farmland,

fertilizers, the hard assets whose value doesn't go down in a inflationary world and doesn't go

down with AI. Barbara, just taking a look at your top holdings. It looks like you're not scared by

any of this. You're willing to go out and technology belong to things that have been punish for the

fear that AI could displace or dent their businesses. Right. Well, because there's two reasons. One is

the valuation has gotten so extreme. I mean, you saw this a software has had a bounce back. It was

down 30 percent, which is a record low, you know, in terms of it. And also where it is tracing

in relation to consumer staples. It's recovered a little bit. It's still down 20 percent.

But I think valuation here gets very interesting. But I think it also rewards stock picky because

there will be some companies that are hurt. And we're not going to know for a while. Maybe it'll

take a year until we see how it impacts their business model. But things like CrowdStrike or Palo

Alto, which have been, have been damaged here. When you look at really what their businesses are

people really going to use their own kind of AI to do their own cyber security when it's so

important. No. And so I think there are definite opportunities within that. And so when you look at

even Shopify, that's an end to end. And when you begin to really understand their business models,

you know, there are companies that will probably be using and they are using AI to help their own

businesses and Shopify is a case in point. Just to understand your holdings list, for instance,

IGV is at number four right now, according to our latest notes. Were you in it for a long time?

More of these recent notes, acquisitions. That's a very much an opportunistic thing because

particularly when we're not going to know for a while which software companies are going to do well

in which or not, the IGV is a very good way to play it because it's a broad base thing. And so

when it's so oversold, it's a pretty good bet that you're going to have a big bounce up.

The banks were very weak today. The investment banks in particular, Goldman Sachs caught up in some

of that. Is that something you'd have to pay more attention to in the sense of cracks

in credit or just in general risk appetite? Well, it's an interesting question because I think

in the private credit concerns and it's really people are concerned because there's no transparency.

You don't know what a lot of these companies hold and there's a lot of excess capital. Now,

if I'm like Goldman Sachs or a JP Morgan, they do have some exposure but it's not going to be a lot.

And I don't think it's going to affect their broader business. I think the more relevant question

for Goldman Sachs is are we with this prolonged uncertainty and volatility in the market?

Isn't going to hurt the IPO market, secondary is all that because beginning of the year.

And after last year, M&A and that activity looked very strong and certainly it's been reflected

in their recent earnings. So I think that's more to do with the sell-off. And also because I just

think they're relatively immune from AI disruption and some of the other concerns of your private

credit. Charlie, do you see opportunity in some of the areas of Barbara Hyde identified? I mean,

areas like software, for instance, I mean, with these large drawdowns that we've seen recently

that have only reversed in the past week or so. Some of those stocks have become even more value

plays and maybe more attractive for the likes of you and Barbara. One of the most important lessons

that Warren Buffett gave us was the concept of too hard. To value a stock at 30 times earnings or

even 25 times earnings, you've got to be very confident of your ability to forecast future cash flows.

And to me, a lot of these technology companies just don't pass that test. The one name that I've

always held out is a little bit of an exception is Oracle. The companies in this world want to do AI

on their own data. And that data sits on Oracle software. And Oracle is only trading at 21 times

forward earnings. But a lot of these technology names, it's just very hard to calculate winners

from losers and very hard to calculate fair value. All right, fair enough. I can leave it there.

Thank you, Barbara and Charlie. Marvel technology earnings there out Christina Parts Neville has

the numbers. Christina, this is a custom chip company and you beat on the top and bottom line,

a one penny beat for the adjusted EPS at 80 cents per share revenue $2.22 billion. But it's really the

guidance that is causing shares to just jump about 7%. The company expects EPS for the Q1 to be

around 79 cents at the midpoint higher than the street about 5 cents. Q1 revenues at 2.4 billion

that's at the midpoint higher than what the street was anticipating. Gross margins also coming

in higher. They did put a few quotes in the release saying that they expect year-over-year revenue

growth to accelerate each quarter in fiscal 2027 driven by continued strength in their data center

business with bookings continuing to grow at a record pace. I think that strong statement really

helping. And then last but not least, the Q1 guide does also include expected results from their

recent acquisitions of celestial AI and ex-cons since they close at the end of 2026 guys. She

is now 8% on this bullish guide. Christina, thanks for seeing the parts of Neville's coming up.

The energy sector ETF, XOP hitting the highest levels since June 2022 today with names like

Philip 66 and Valero at multi-year highs. Ahead will break down the best way to play the surge

in energy prices. And emerging markets falling off a cliff since the attack on Iran will

break down the charts to see if there's more pain ahead for those markets. You're watching

Closing Bell over time live from the Nasak Market site.

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Gap burnings are outstanding. The shares down by about 10 percent right now.

Gabrielle Phon Rouge has the numbers, Gabby. Yeah, thanks, Melissa. So Gap is reporting mixed

Q4 results with EPS, missing expectations on revenue that's just in line with consensus.

Now, worse than expected results at Gap's biggest brand, Old Navy, contributed to the

miss and weather is also partially to blame here. Finance Chief Katrina O'Connell told me this

isn't an excuse like we've obviously heard before, but we did have historic winter storms,

which did lead to around 800 store closures towards the end of the quarter.

And that, of course, weighed on performance. But what's going to be key to watch tonight

and moving forward is the impact tariffs are going to have on Gap's guidance and margin.

Gap was heavily impacted by the recently struck down IEPA tariffs.

But those duties were higher than the new 15 percent rate that's coming into effect.

O'Connell said that if that 15 percent rate were to stay in place for the rest of the year,

it should lead to a more favorable outcome than the outlook it provided today.

What's up? All right. Gabby, thanks. Gabrielle Von Roosh. Do not miss Jim Kramer's exclusive

interview with Gap's CEO, coming up 6 p.m. Eastern time on Mad Money.

Airlines stocks continue to decline today as the Middle East conflict grounds flights and

drives energy prices higher. Jet fuel prices have risen significantly in the past week

with prices in the U.S. and Asia hitting a two-year high. In Europe, they spiked to the highest

level since 2022. Rothschild and company Redburn writing today that American airlines

has the greatest sensitivity to fuel prices with every 10 cent move per gallon,

equating to almost 25 percent in its earnings per share.

The airline's ETF jets posting its fifth straight down day since April 2025.

Speaking of higher energy prices, our next guest says if the war in Iran lasts a few more weeks,

which is his base case, prices for crude could stay at these levels and possibly move even higher.

Joining us now is Ian Brammer. He is the president of Eurasia Group.

Ian, great to see you.

Walk us through that thinking. How do oil prices stay higher or even move higher than where we are now,

even if there is an off-ramp? Well, the off-ramp is not in front of us.

The administration started with telling its allies a few days, then it became four weeks.

Now it becomes potentially eight weeks. President Trump made very clear today that he wants

to have direct influence or veto power over who the next Iranian leader is going to be,

and his ability to affect regime change either requires boots on the ground, which he's

reluctant to do, or it requires some level of coordinated opposition that's armed and capable

and willing to take the regime out. We don't have that either.

So, I mean, unless the off-ramp is going to be Trump's and he's capable of doing that,

but he's not showing any signs of that so far, not at all, then I think we have to expect that

this war is going to last longer than the markets initially anticipated.

I mean, there's got to be a scenario off of a scenario, because even if there is an off-ramp,

the number of outcomes are pretty wide. And so, what's your base, if the base case is an off-ramp

in a few weeks, what does the base case for what that off-ramp looks like?

It's not fragmentation. It's not that the Kurds come in and they're armed and they're able to

like take one piece in their secessionist to take another piece and there's a rump regime.

I think that's very unlikely. So, not the worst worst case of civil war, everything breaks down

massive refugees in the rest. Rather, I think the most likely case is the Americans continue to

engage in lots and lots of strikes with the Israelis, probably some level of troops on the ground,

some place, because Trump has been very, very careful not to exclude it. And he understands how

unpopular it is. So, it seems increasingly likely. But you're going to end up after all of this

devastation with a much weaker regime that looks a lot like what you had before, not very pragmatic,

not the Venezuela scenario, where they're willing to work with the United States. Now,

the problem with that is that the Iranians are still going to have lots of oil revenue

because the alternative to that is the Americans cutting it off and prices staying much higher

for much longer, which nobody wants least of all President Trump. If you're not willing to do that,

you don't change the regime, then you have an Islamic Republic that continues to make a lot of money

and spends that money in ways that are antithetical to the national security concerns of the US and

Israel. And what are some of the secondary impacts in terms of relations between the US and other

countries, such as China? There's maybe one thought out there that with the President,

planning to have a meeting with President Xi and China in April, that that might end up putting

some kind of a bound on operations, or maybe China would sort of draw some line and say the

meeting's off if, in fact, something gets breached. So, how does that play in, if at all?

Yeah, that's clearly not going to happen. I think both of these leaders are very,

very committed to making this meeting big and stabilizing and symbolically really important

and a huge welcome for President Trump and probably a bunch of CEOs going with them.

No, what the Chinese officials that I've spoken with are a little irritated about

is that this distraction of the war in Iran means that the United States has not been putting

much on the table in terms of suggested outcomes for the April meeting. They want the Chinese

sort of to go first. And China doesn't like uncertainty around these things, least of all around

their respected head of the Communist Party. So that is causing, I would say, a little bit of

agita in Beijing right now. But I really don't see that problem. I think that the bigger problems

are with American allies. They're in the Gulf with countries that are exposed to these direct

strikes and they're kind of angry. It's not like they were being consulted. The Europeans,

I mean, the United States is going after the UK and Spain, even though there was literally not

a moment of heads up provided to the closest allies in Europe about the fact that the US was about

to make these strikes. But then as soon as they do, they're like, no, no, we want you to help us,

we want you to participate. And by the way, we're going to go back to 15 percent tariffs

despite the deal that you've struck. So, I mean, you're definitely hearing a lot more irritation

from many of the allies. You know, there was a headline today, a story about how the Gulf states

would not necessarily want at this point the US to just sort of pull away because it would be

sort of maximum disarray and they would have to absorb some of the impact. So, I mean,

what can we think about that? Well, I think that's right. But the Gulf states would have been much,

much happier with something much more contained to begin with. So, I mean, you know, they understand

that this is a war without much of a plan. It's a war of choice by President Trump.

By this absolutely concern that the Iranians were continuing to develop ballistic missiles,

large-scale production. They were trying to reconstitute the nuclear program. And I think the

Gulf states would have been completely on board, okay, not Oman that was doing the actual mediating

and the negotiations. But the Saudis, the Emirates, if the US had said we want to go back and do

the 12-day war again, but more expansive to hit more military targets, hit the ballistic missiles,

no problem. But the decision to go in guns blazing and assassinate the supreme leader,

assassinate the top military leaders, think maybe you've got someone to work with. But then,

oh well, most of those people have been killed. Like, that doesn't sound good to the Gulf.

Why wasn't there a plan for a disrupted Straits of Wormuz, anyone that was thinking about these

strikes, understood that that was a very serious likelihood if you're going to hit the Iranians

that hard. But that's what the Gulf states are angry about. Right. And we got to leave it there.

Thank you so much for joining us. And, Brad. See you guys. Yeah. Costco earnings are out right now.

Gabrielle Henry has those numbers, Gabby. Yeah. So, Costco's reporting earnings per share of $4.58.

That's a beat on $4.56, which was consensus. That's going to be on revenue of $69.6 billion.

Also a beat. They were expecting $69.29 billion. So, Costco does report monthly figures for us. So,

a lot of this isn't a huge surprise. But what's different today is that we got total revenue.

That includes membership fees. And what we saw today is that membership fees were up about 14%

year over year at 1.36 billion. And one of the things that we're going to be looking out for tonight

on the call is membership renewal rates. Over the last couple of quarters, that has been slipping.

They have been acquiring more online customers. And those customers were new at a slightly lower rate.

And, you know, of course, this makes up a very small portion of Costco's overall revenue. But

this is how they keep prices low. So, it's going to be something we're going to watch tonight.

All right, Gabby. Thanks, Gabrielle Von Rouge. Well, there is a lot of red in the markets today,

but booking holdings, doordash, and expedia, buck the trend because of something open AI is

reportedly doing. We got that story next. Check out shares of trade desks. One of the real

bright spots today following a report, it will open, help open AI sell ads on chat GPT AI fears

have really weighed on this stock, which is still down more than 40% over the last six months,

even with today's games. They tuned.

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Slash terms for more. Welcome back to overtime. Take a look at some of the

commerce names today. Booking, DoorDash, and Expedia. All closing higher on reports that

OpenAI will scale back its plan to introduce shopping directly inside chat GPT.

The company will now focus on having checkouts take place inside specific apps that plug into chat GPT.

We're saying this morning that the move could help limit potential margin pressure.

For some of these companies, this OpenAI will now likely take a smaller cut from these transactions.

So why is OpenAI reportedly scaling back this initiative?

What does this tell us about the difficulties emerging different AI with

different industries? Kate Rooney, explain. Kate.

AML, so this is a major change for OpenAI. The company had made this major push to let users

essentially make purchases directly from within chat GPT, from product listings, and it was

really seen at the time as a threat to some of the names. You mentioned that are rallying today.

You've got Etsy, Shopify, for example, and those are getting a boost here.

On the back of this news, the push at the time was really meant to happen within chat GPT.

Search results, the pivot here going forward. OpenAI is going to look to leave checkout within

the apps that actually plug into chat GPT. A spokesperson confirming this, telling us

we are evolving how we approach commerce in chat GPT to better meet merchants and users

where they are and says instant checkout is moving to apps where purchases can

happen more seamlessly. OpenAI also says they landed here after learning from some of the early

launches and user feedback. The move makes OpenAI on one hand a lot less threatening as a partner.

Is it really tries to beef up its enterprise business? Companies still want to be the main

interface and connect directly with their customers. That is really what they care about. OpenAI

has been trying to win over major Fortune 500 clients and diversify away from just that consumer

business. Also speaks to some of the challenges of actually integrating AI into shopping. Plus,

there could be an Amazon factor here. So Amazon invested up to $50 billion in its latest round.

OpenAI is latest round as part of that. OpenAI is going to be building some custom models for

Amazon's own shopping capabilities in chatbots. It had also put some restrictions on sort of the

external chatbot shopping side of things. Amazon did. So they had been sort of wary of this.

In the first place, you have to wonder if that at all played into this decision.

And then Kate, I guess I would imagine within OpenAI, they really need to start setting some

priorities as opposed to try to do everything in every direction. Was this something that was

considered to be potentially imminent as a broad rollout? It was Mike and they had made this

major push. When we talk about sort of the impact on margins for e-commerce, there got so much

buzz around this in the fall and when this was actually launched. But it does come as they're looking

to diversify into advertising. I would say as they're strategizing, advertising when you look at

shopping is probably a better opportunity for OpenAI than taking a slice of e-commerce. And I

do think the enterprise out of this as they try to partner with companies. The big question when

we talk about AI threats, whether it's anthropic or these agents or coding, I think the big

thing software companies, e-commerce companies, they just want to be sure that they can use this as

a layer of the technology and they can be the ones connecting with the customers. They want to make

sure that you're logging onto Expedia to book. We can use that technology, we can use AI on the

backside, but we want to make sure that you are still connecting with us directly. We are the

interface. That's something we hear from companies all the time that as long as that's the case,

there are a lot less threatened and I think OpenAI is rising up to that, that they don't want to

disrupt everyone at this point. They want to be a layer on top of it for now. We'll see what

how that evolves. All right, Kate. Thanks so much. Well, time for a CBC News update with McKenzie

Stagallos. McKenzie. The FBI today confirmed that its networks were targeted by suspicious

activities without providing any details. Sources tell CBS News that the networks targeted in the

cyber incident are known as the digital collection system, a suite of software used by the Bureau to

conduct surveillance activities. Republican leadership in the house today called on Congressman

Tony Gonzalez to end his reelection campaign after the Texas rep admitted to an affair with a

staffer who later killed herself. Gonzalez confirmed the affair yesterday after the House ethics

committee launched an investigation. He currently faces a runoff after failing to get 50 percent

of the vote. And former U.S. Attorney Lindsay Halligan, who made unsuccessful attempts to indict

some of President Trump's enemies and was subsequently removed from her job for being

improperly appointed, is now under investigation by the Florida Bar Association.

Non-profit organization campaign for accountability had filed complaints against Halligan

both Florida and Virginia. The investigation could lead to disbarment. Halligan has yet to comment.

Back to you. Mack, thanks. McKenzie. Segalos. Up next, we will break down the charts in tech

to find out whether the underperforming sector's next move is a breakout or a breakdown.

Plus, fast money's guide, Domian, how he's trading oil-related stocks as crude rallies pass 80 bucks

a barrel closing bell over time. It's back in two.

Welcome back to Closing Bell over time, life in the Nasak market side. Socks closing the day

lower as oil tops 80 dollars for the first time since January 2025. The Dow is down nearly 1200

points at the lows. The SB 500 closing flat, the Nasak off less than half percent.

Software catching another bid. Today's service now, DocuSign, Adobe and Salesforce,

seeing a nice bump higher. Some moves after hours as well. Marvel Technologies jumping in the back

of results, EPS revenue and data center revenue coming in ahead of estimates, the company's EPS

and revenue outlook, also better than expected. And Sam Sarah jumping, the cloud company reporting

a beat on EPS and revenue first quarter and full year revenue estimates also above consensus.

Well, emerging markets down 8 percent this week after the attack on Iran and the technical

charts suggest investors could continue to expect some more bumps ahead. Joining us now is

fairly strategy-spanner and CBC contributor Katie Stockton. So Katie, it's one of those very

extended popular trades in the first part of this year that's really had a pretty significant

test to the downside. What are you looking at with regard to emerging markets in particular to

let us know whether this is an overall trend change or maybe eventually a buying opportunity?

Yeah, I would just look at it as a pullback, but one that's likely to continue, it obviously started

off very sharply with the news. We saw a breakaway gap down in EEM, the ETF representing emerging

markets. And that gap down does suggest that we'll see near-term downside follow-through.

In addition to that, we have downturns on our weekly bar charts and those are more intermediate

term in nature, something of the nature of maybe two to three months in their implications,

the cell signals that we have on the weekly chart now. We can still view this very much within the

context of the long-term uptrend that has been established by EEM. You could even expand that

more broadly to international development in general, because they have run so far so fast. So at

this point, it's just a retracement in absolute terms. And I assume something similar would apply

maybe in an amplified version of that. If you just looked at the Korea ETF or Taiwan, which of course

became proxies for memory chips and semis in general. That's right. They have that double whammy

of having emerging markets and technology, both of which have been under pressure, hit them

pretty hard this week looking at EWT and EWY as proxies for those countries. And there too,

those pullbacks, which are already dramatic, should continue in the near term,

referencing our short-term momentum gauges. But we will be ultimately looking for a sort of buy

the dip or buy the weakness opportunity. We just think that might be several weeks out based on

the indications that we have. And then in terms of things that look like they've been improving,

I know you've had your eye on real estate plays, various types of reads. What's what are you spying

on there? Well, as you know, it's a tough market to find actionable long ideas when you have that

weakened momentum from a top-down perspective. But when we find something that stands out as looking

a bit different from a technical perspective, that's where we take interest. And the tower reads

stand out in that way because they had been trendy lower. This would include crown castle,

American tower SBA communications. All three had seen downtrends and unsuccessful tests of long-term

support levels. Even saw bullish shakeouts, which are essentially false breakdowns in January,

that are now giving way to improved intermediate term momentum. So I'm intrigued by the setup.

I do think just in general to be reduced in equity exposure right now is probably okay. But these

tower reads stand out as an opportunity to leverage something that just looks different than the

broader market. And then really quick, the flip side of all this, this ferocious bounce in software.

If you look at the IGVs, that's something you'd sort of let rally further before selling it or not.

Yeah, I've been on board with the IGV sort of pear trade against semis in general looking at SMH.

I do think that that pair will continue to favor long software versus short semi-conductor stock

positions. In absolute terms, the bounce I think has a little bit of room. We have our

Denmark indicators that we're tracking supported other few days of upside for IGV.

And some of it's constituents still look pretty good in sort of a short term time frame.

Micro strategy is one that stands out as something that's been

positively correlated to not just software, but also Bitcoin. And that has some buy signals that

have even more duration. But it would be pretty high risk at this point with the top down influences

out there. So we prefer remaining reduced in exposure until the S&P 500 tells us otherwise.

Got a Katie. Really appreciate it. Katie Stockton. Of course.

Let's get to energy now. Oil crossing $80 for the first time since January 2025.

Posting its best days since 2020. So how can you play the sector if the move higher continues?

Joining us now. Guy Adami, risk reversal media co-founder, and fast money.

Good thing I may be dexterous, Melissa, because last time I was over on mics.

We like to mix it up. We're mixing it up. We're, you might be confused, but it seems like your

handle. Wake up confused, Mel. So let's talk about the energy market. And you'd like

the energy stocks prior to the spump higher in oil. But which one still do you think? Yeah, and

Tim Seymour has as well. And we've been talking since probably late summer early fall of last year

for a number of different reasons. Valuations were compelling. These were companies that were operating

better without question. And the balance sheets were probably as good as they've ever been in

the industry. Now all of a sudden, everybody's become an expert in the oil industry overnight,

which I totally get and I understand why. Valera, a pulp of VLO chart from our crack staff in EC.

I mean, this has been lower left upper right, and they win. Input costs going higher. But you

know what, the products they're putting out, the margins are still there. So I think Valera wins

marathon petroleum is another name they would be like the problem with marathon petroleum.

Look at the move today. Mike probably has it up. Open-based it in all time high,

close around the lows of the day. And we got to levels that we last saw in 2024. Now,

obviously, everybody's going to know about the integrated names, but Exxon all time high.

Chevron finally got into the party. You may remember this. It was during the Biden administration.

It was a Thursday, I think. Chevron reported, now it's a $75 billion stock buyback,

and the stock never had another uptick. We finally got back to those prior levels. So,

yeah, the integrators are interesting, but I think it's a little late right now. It doesn't

mean it's over. I think it's just late. I just found it interesting that like the oil service

not able to rally today on crude. So the market is treating this move in the near term

with a little bit of skepticism. Picking winners and losers, but oh, I hate you just mentioned,

slumbershay, how a burden baker used to a certain extent. We just made eight year highs, I think,

over the last couple days. And the move has been pretty much straight up. So around the edges,

it sort of makes sense what's going on here. So I don't think you want to now pick your spots.

And I do think the energy trade is alive and well, but I think there's when you see a price

action like you saw in Marathon and to your point, some of the OH names, it's got to give you

a little bit of pause. And if there's some rug pull in the underlying commodity, regardless of

whether or not it makes sense, you know what's going to happen in these stocks. I see you later.

That's it. Yeah. This was fun though. I enjoyed the spot. I can buy it. You can speak at

both sides of it. And I wear the earpiece in both ears. That's talented. Very breaking news here

on the War Powers vote in the House. Emily Wilkins is in details. Emily.

Melissa, the House has failed to pass the War Powers vote that would have limited Trump's power and

had him come to Congress for any additional strikes in Iran. Didn't expect it to have the votes.

It didn't also looks like it's going to fail is this additional funding for the Department of

Homeland Security, which of course is now in its third week of not being funded. Guys,

Emily Wilkins, up next we'll discuss what Costco and gaps earnings say about the state of the

consumer and how surging energy prices could impact retail sales.

Welcome back. Gapshairs under pressure after missing Wall Street's earnings estimates. Costco

basically flat on a top and a bottom line beat. Retail more broadly getting hammered today.

Stocks like Victoria, Secret, American Eagle and Abercrombie all down 10% or more.

But there are some names that have held up better in recent weeks. Most are names in the low-end

consumer category, raw stores, five below TJX. So what does it say about the state of the economy

and how do rising energy prices or the potential of rising energy prices impact the sector?

Joining us here on set, Corey Tarlow, he's Jeffree's equity analyst covering discount in

specialty retailers by rating on both Gap and Costco. For Gap specifically, why is the stock

down 10% after hours? I think it's a little bit of a focus on the guidance. Overall,

the quarter was relatively in line. Some puts in takes on the top line. Old Navy did come in

at a plus three. Our expectation was for a plus four. Albeit is still very strong. And there is

just a little concern around the impact of tariffs and incentive compensation coming back into the

base and impacting the earnings and flow through a little bit for this year. We did hear a little

bit of talk of weather. Do we have to brace for that January? Where is it pretty rough?

Weather can impact. We're not just forgetting, but in general, as we get these further reports.

Certainly. Weather can impact some retailers. BJ's reported today, and weather was actually

a positive impact for the quarter. But for some, it's a negative. And you saw that a little bit

in the results, of course, that could have hurt old Navy's results, that could have hurt some

of the other retailers that are more specialty oriented. But hopefully that gets made up for

over the next several months. Maybe there's some pent up buying. You have some tax refunds.

So there are some tailwinds at the consumers back here. And based on what we've seen so far,

what is sort of the general message that we've heard thus far about the consumer? I mean,

ANF actually addressed the conflict in Iran, but it sounded like it was more of a direct exposure

because they had stores in the region, as opposed to sentiment filtering back to the US consumer.

Yeah, I think it's really just the function of the consumer being consistent.

We've seen unemployment hold relatively steady, balance sheets relatively healthy.

We heard from Walmart that there is a little bit of weakness at the low end.

But other than that, the consumer has been remarkably consistent,

but is trading down a little bit and trading into value-oriented retailers like you talked about,

Walmart, TJ Maxx, Costco was just reported. And then they're transitioning into categories

like private label versus brands because, frankly, inflation in some of those brands has gotten

quite out of hand. Cory, thank you for stopping by. Appreciate it. Thank you so much.

All right, more closing bell right after this.

Breaking news out of Washington, Aiman Javers got the details, Aiman.

At Melissa, take a live look at the White House right now. President Trump is holding an event

alongside the soccer team, Inter Miami. There you see Lionel Messi, the world famous soccer player,

standing next to the president along with the rest of the team. I wanted to highlight some comments

that the president just made, though, because he's standing there, the man to the right of the

president with his hands folded before him. That's Jorge Moss. He's a billionaire Cuban American

owner of the Inter Miami soccer team. And that fact that he's Cuban American got the president

sort of talking about Cuba here in remarks that I think are significant. The president said,

he's contemplating some sort of military action. Didn't say specifically what he's contemplating,

but he said he's contemplating taking action in Cuba either militarily or politically to change

the leadership there. And he said that Cuban Americans will want to go back to Cuba at some point.

The president said that might happen within weeks, but that he wants to finish with Iran first.

Let me play the tape so you can hear exactly what he said. Take a listen.

What's happening with Cuba is amazing. And we think that we want to finish this one first,

but that will be just a question of time before you and a lot of unbelievable people are going to be

going back to Cuba. So the president said that could happen within weeks. He didn't specify,

you know, if this is a military or political solution that he has in mind, Melissa,

but he did say that current leadership in Cuba is anxious to make a deal. And he pointed out

Marco Rubio, the secretary of state in the audience and said, Marco Rubio is anxious to do Cuba too,

but we've got to finish with Iran. You don't want to do too many countries all at the same time,

because bad things could happen. Was he asked specifically about this or did it just come up?

He brought it up. He brought it up. And I think it was in the context of standing next to Jorge

Moss, who was a billionaire Cuban American. And he and Messi and Moss had been standing in an

anti-room before the ceremony together. So clearly there was some conversation that they had off

stage that the president may have been referring to or was on the president's mind. And he brought

it up independently. Again, he didn't say military action. He didn't say political action. He just

said within weeks, and you and the other Cuban Americans will want to go back, and that'll be a

great day when that happens. So not exactly clear what the president is thinking in terms of Cuba,

but clearly it's very much front of mind. Yeah, I guess the context too, of course, is that there

has been just pressure campaign, right, since Venezuela and trying to isolate the country in the

regime and everything. So yeah, absolutely. Since Venezuela, the U.S. has been, you know,

blockade effectively blockade in Cuba, blocking oil to the country and strangling their economy.

That is putting enormous pressure on Cuban leadership, who may be thinking through scenarios

of their own, especially in the wake of last week's strikes on Iran in terms of what the end

game is with President Trump. Aiman, thank you. Aiman Javers. Obviously, we'll see how the markets

take this little bit of news, but then also a big day in terms of... Job support. Yep,

sales to a lesser degree, but yeah, a big day tomorrow. Plenty, see if we get the focus on that

or just crude oil. That does it for overtime. Fast money begins right after this quick break.

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