Closing Bell: Stocks Rally in Final Hour of Trade 3/31/26

Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Scott Walker live from Post-Night. Here at the New York Stock Exchange,

this maker break out begins with this surge in stocks on hopes the war with Iran is closer to an end.

We'll follow this action right into the close today. We'll show you the scorecard here

with 60 to go in regulation. We are green and well so across the board. The majors were already

higher. They did get a major boost in the new hour on that report that Iran's president said they

were open to ending the war. Unconfirmed but nonetheless it moved the market.

We'll get the latest from Washington in just a moment but there is your intraday picture of

the majors. It shows the story pretty well. Oil moved a little bit lower, not much but it was

enough to make people feel better about what's been happening there too. Yeal has been down and

all of that has contributed to the better feeling in the markets today as this final stretch begins.

Tech a big story as well. Nvidia taking a taking back a key level. There it is above $170

dollars. A share. It's a 5% gain. Many of the other mega caps are rising in concert too. We'll

have more on that coming up. First though we begin in Washington and CNBC's Amin Javers,

who has the very latest on this war. Amin? Yes Scott as you say markets have been moving on

reports of a phone call held earlier today between Iran's president and the president of the

European Council. Iran's state affiliated press TV is reporting that Iran's president said that

the country seeks no war but is prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks. So

that does convey a sense that Iran is continuing to offer up some conditions that could be built into

any deal to end the war but that's not necessarily new and it's just one part of the set of demands

that Iran has been making publicly already. Now President Trump has said that negotiations are

ongoing and if Iran doesn't cut a deal that he likes by April 6th he will bomb civilian infrastructure

such as power plants. The president took to social media this morning to hurl some criticism at

American allies who he argues have been insufficiently supportive of the United States. He

wrote that France has been very unhelpful and warned that the USA will remember and he wrote

I have a suggestion for you. Number one buy from the U.S. We have plenty and number two

build up some delayed courage go to the straight and just take it you'll have to learn to start

fighting for yourself the USA won't be there for you anymore just like you weren't there for us

but Scott what many countries appear to be doing is cutting side deals to pay Iran for safe passage

of their ships. That's creating a significant new revenue stream for the Islamic Republic that

didn't exist before the war. Of course what the president wants them to do is launch their own

military capacity. It looks like buying their way out of the problem might be the more appealing

solution to a lot of American allies. You did as well Aiman also have this report later this afternoon

that both China and Pakistan were collectively trying to be intermediaries here too and presenting

Iran with a deal for a ceasefire. There are more parties involved here as well who would like to

see an end of these hostilities. Yeah and you can imagine the panic in Asia right now is the

last shipments of pre-war oil reach Asia's economies and they look at this enormous air gap and

supply of oil that's going to be indefinite at this point. The idea that China is moving into

pole position here and taking a leadership role in trying to settle this is fascinating. This

is an Axios report that China and Pakistan have made this overture and you do think that with

Pakistan being involved and Pakistan serving as the main mediator between the United States and

Iran there might be some sort of tacit U.S. blessing to this effort as well. We'll see if the

White House will comment on it but a fascinating proposal that reads to me Scott if you look at

the points in that proposal as Axios has reported them just as a straight up ceasefire with safe

passage in the state of Hormuz and that seems to be something the president would be willing to

settle for at this point. Well I think the markets would be quite a happy if that in fact was the

case. Amen thank you very much that's Aiman Javers from Washington with the latest they're speaking

of the straight and speaking of oil. Pippa Stevens is with us now who's been following this trying

to get the straight of Hormuz back open just isn't an immediate thing as you were telling us at

noon Pippa give us more information. Definitely not immediate and we did see WTI settle off the

worst levels of the session settled at 101 38 the low had been 99 62 with the high at 106 86

and right now we're right around the 102 level but this is by no means going to resolve itself

anytime soon as Aiman was just saying the last shipments of oil that was loaded prior to the war

has now reached the final destination and so that cushion is about to be removed from the market

and we continue to see this disconnect between the physical and the paper markets we have seen

prices soaring in the physical markets especially for those Dubai and Omani blends with barrels

in the Middle East very very tight now and that's not completely being being reflected in the financial

markets right now although Goldman was out with an interesting note saying that there were some

investors buying strike options as high as $450 per barrel so of course there are so many there's

a very large and very wide range of outcomes that could be possible here in terms of oil pricing

looking forward but also we can't disconnect discount the fact that the Bob Bellman Dabstraight south

of the Red Sea is also now potentially at risk after the Houthis entered the war over the weekend

targeting Israel and of that work to also experience a slowdown in shipping that could be a double

whammy for the market and then just finally Scott I would point out here the narrowing spread

between WTI and Brent right now about $2.40 as WTI becomes more attractive it is of course not

the key type of type of oil that refiners are looking for they tend to like the more of the

medium sour barrels but if they can't get those they will take WTI and so as WTI exports become

more valuable to the global market we could see that spread continue to tighten all right it's

great insight as always Pippa thank you Pippa Stevens now let's bring in our panel Solus' Dan

Greenhouse requisite sprint talking tin and capital areas Malcolm Etheridge both Brendan Malcolm

or CNBC contributors one and all it is great to have everybody I guess the big question Dan

I'll begin with you since you're sitting here next to me is if there's a resolution reasonably

quickly what do you do as an investor you just go back to playing what you were playing before the

idea that hey earnings are going to be pretty good and you still have this stimulus coming out

of Washington and all's well again I think the temptation will be to do something else I don't

know if that's correct it might seem too many to be too simplistic to say well we're just going

to return to the world as was and admittedly in a lot of respects we will not a oil is not going

back to $60 anytime soon and the exact mechanism by which this is solved remains to be seen but

from an investment standpoint we've talked ad nauseam as everybody has noted that earnings

expectations have held in quite well they've gone up in many cases the valuations and a lot

of those big names and they've driven a lot of inflows into the market have gotten more attractive

summer trading its sub market multiples which is insane when you consider the growth profiles

so there I think it's probably not a bad place to start but I do want to quickly note before we move

on that the headline is that Iran wants to settle this and I don't think anyone should be surprised

they're getting bombed left and right I'm sure they'd be perfectly happy to have this settled but

it's the condition and listen we talked last week if and when there was something resembling

a settlement the markets would fly for all the technical and fundamental reasons that we've

been talking about but their conditions for settling this sort of speak involved taking over

the straight which is going to provide them a revenue stream is pipa noted a promise never to

attack them ever again and a right to enrichment a number of things that the US is not really going

to go for so I get why the markets up so strongly today but I would just caution investors

a lot of those conditions are probably not something that the US is going to agree to

Brenner you still cautious want to see more information before you make a larger investment

decision here you know I like to rely on technicals when the fundamentals are foggy because

obviously we have this this this war this excursion so you know I've been talking a lot about the

200 day there's a lot of good data Scott that if we can get back above the 200 day within the

first month then it's got a hundred percent hit ratio that a year later stocks are positive with

an average return of around 19 percent so we're only about 2 percent below the 200 day but so you

know March 19th we went below with Scott so I'm looking at April 19th which is a long time away

but I do think that's really important to technically get back above that so we can build off of

there so that's the key item that I'm watching before I put on let's say like a bigger exposure

because it is just have that really high hit rate a year out what about you Malcolm yeah I think

Dan's making a great point that we might need to curb our enthusiasm just a little bit nothing is

set in stone and this can all be undone with one tweet but I also think today is a really good

exposure of what the playbook probably looks like once we do get the all clear so financials

have done pretty well at the XLF participated today tech has done really well today looking at

the NASDAQ and those were the two sectors that lagged coming into this year and so maybe that is

the place that investors are looking at opportunities where things have been sold off quite a bit

and we can make some sort of intimation that maybe that's where dollars are going to flow the

heaviest as soon as there is an opportunity to start buying back up this dip Dan this was always

the danger wasn't it that what was always thought to be I suppose and hoped to be a short-lived

conflict oh the danger was getting too negative as it seemed to be dragging on with no real

credible information to to go off of but always knowing that in the background this hopefully

wasn't going to be a long-term or deal yeah but listen I never really thought it was good

it turns into a definition of long-term I think a lot of people get of our age look at Afghanistan

and look at Iraq and Harkin back to Vietnam and think that this is going to be multi-year

no I think at the beginning the administration's stance was whether it was you know believable or

not in the sense of you never know what's going to happen once the war begins of course was four

five weeks was kind of thrown out there estimate yeah I think I think most people I speak to seem

to have seemed to believe that the administration thought this was going to be a weekend thing all

event as well and obviously that that's not in the case I don't know if that's true or not obviously

but yeah there was a risk of getting too negative but at the same time a fully loaded

Kuwaiti oil tanker was hit with a drone last night yeah the market still open positive today yes

I guess right I I'm not I'm not making a market comment I'm just saying hostilities have not ceased

and there we talk about getting more negative getting back to my my point about the conditions

that the Iranians are going to demand sort of speak for cessation of hostilities if the US doesn't

agree to them the risk becomes well we're going to start targeting the the regional infrastructure

to a greater degree I don't know whether the US is actually going to go bomb civilian infrastructure

in Iran but Iran could bomb other refineries throughout the region could could make this a

little more painful from a global standpoint and so they're yeah I get it the risk is getting

too negative but the risks of the negative risks were also quite real it just brin I mean it doesn't

really move either side to to draw this out obviously from a military standpoint there's there's

no competitive conversation to be had regarding the Iranians versus the the United States and from

our perspective you know an environment in which oil prices are going to remain elevated over

an extended period of time and thus gas prices which went over $4 a gallon today on average for

the first time in a while we're going to remain elevated over a period of time where the stock

market was going to get hit to a degree that I don't think anybody certainly not in Washington at

1600 Pennsylvania Avenue would like to see this thing was always deemed to be let's not let it

drag on too much it's just as the markets in the fog of war doesn't necessarily know how to

assess all of that listen when you have the US and China which is what two-thirds of global GDP

it's like the only real countries from an economic powerhouse that matter I think the China

Pakistan is incredibly important China buys 89 percent of Iranian exports and so I think that

them coming and negotiating with Pakistan will say alongside the US this feels like this is

going to end by the way and I think that is what's happening today is that China is a game changer

and so I we are going to defeat this one way or another but to me that was the best news today

because China needs that oil and they need the straight-of-formers open and they're not going to

be wanting to pay the Iranians a toll booth by the way that's absurd sure going going forward so

I think that's a really big deal today with China entering this if you say that this feels like

it's going to end that that was that was the comment you just made I mean that sounds like

somebody who may be looking to put some opportunity to work no if you if you believe that

are you going to wait until you see a sign to cease fire or are you going to act accordingly

based on the assumption that you're making today yeah well I mean we're already invested right

first of all we didn't we didn't sell anything that's the key thing I mean listen I think Google

here up for almost 5% Google CBRE Capital One I mean these stocks are off 20% from their highs

are 20% year-to-date so I mean to me those are three great places that I will put I would

happy to put the money to work today and then add more but I do want to say I want to get above

that 200 day moving average nothing good happens if we stay there more than a month so I'm really

just balancing today's news of China which we don't know the details with the reality that we

need to get back above that 200 day there's so much history what happens if we get back above it

versus stay below it more than a month I understand that the technical confirmation I guess you

you need to see and that's that's that's completely understood speaking of stocks that are

bouncing a lot what a move for Nvidia today after that company announced a new investment with

Marvel Christina parts and levelos is here with that you told us the other day that you were

so closely watching the 170 dollar level well it took a deal with Marvel it took comments on

this network from Jensen Wong and then a better overall environment to move the stock now well

above that level yes I think the better environment is really a big driver especially because ETF

trading right now is just a huge portion so many people are buying ETFs in videos and over 600 of

them so that's also helping drive shares up 5% but the news today specifically Nvidia putting 2

billion dollars into Marvel technology this deal really centers on Nvidia's platform that lets

custom chips plug into its infrastructure and so Marvel designs those custom AI chips for other

major tech companies like Amazon they actually compete with Nvidia's GPUs but this partnership

kind of flips that dynamic giving Nvidia a shot at a much bigger market and then making Marvel

a strategic partner for Nvidia this investment though Scott is one of many just this month alone

look at your screen you can see Nvidia's committed 2 billion dollars each to Nebius Lumentum coherit

before that 2 billion into synopsis a billion into Nokia stakes and XAI open AI until I couldn't

even fit them all on the screen because I only had five blocks there the CEO often reminds investors

though it's not a chip company anymore but rather an AI infrastructure firm here he is exclusively

on CNBC this morning the market misses several things about about Nvidia I think the of course because

we are such a large company and we have such a large position of AI computing and all the AI

infrastructure you know a lot of people might think that all of our growth is all priced in however

what is very clear is several things happened this last several months in fact maybe the last

six months we gain share the number of customers outside of the clouds the top five clouds of

service providers has now grown to 40% of our company's business most people think that most

of our business is in the cloud but in fact the fast one of the fastest growing segments is outside

of the enterprise the industrial and the man sitting next to him is Matt Murphy the CEO of

Marvell the argument though is that the market is just focused on big hyperscalers but in video

is ecosystem it's just spreading even far beyond them into enterprise you heard industrial now deeper

into the supply chain through investments like today's Marvell steel got Mar Christina great

reporting thank you Christina parts of Novelos Malcolm I'll come to you you still hold the stock I

thought what we heard from Jensen Wong on this network exclusively this morning was as clear

an understandable explanation that you could ever give from a CEO to an investor base on why the

market's been getting this wrong yeah and I listen I completely understand the standpoint of any

investor who says this stock has run probably run its course here it's probably time for me to be

taking some profits are exiting the name because how much better can the story get they've they've

shown blown blowout earnings time after time again and I just don't know how much better you can get

than 80% gross profit margins so I'm going to exit stage left but I also think that's leaving some

opportunity on the table when you consider this company is now an innovation company is the way

they refer to themselves to Christina's point not just a chip company yes maybe they're going to

give up something on the GPU front when it comes to inference chips but Jensen's already working

on finding his next parade and getting out in front of it so much so that this company's been

investing a lot of its own free cash flow into finding where that opportunity is so they're trying

to grow their next customer in the next industry that's going to take hold rather than sitting

and resting on their laurels where they've got the mag seven they've got the hyperskellers as

their massive customers today bring you on it too what do you make of what Jensen had to say and

specifically this stock move today I mean it's well warranted the stock by the way it's up

60% over the last year so it's not like it's been dead money I mean Microsoft is the one that's

been the dead money the stock's just resting here the stock is now on a Ford PE cheaper than exon

and is going to grow earnings seventy five percent this year it's resting I feel like the stock

eventually will get over two hundred which to me I keep selling calls there because it can't get

above that but I think you will continue to get this stock move like it had last year it's just

resting right now and then ultimately it'll break out and leave investors behind like it's

consistently done so I wouldn't give up on this name even remotely with this earnings growth

that we still had a head of us and the low PE relative to once again an exon

Dan how much does this market need tech to be back I don't think it needs tech to be back but I

think it's certainly going to be welcome I mean you know to Brennan Malcolm's point these

companies still have terrific growth rates obviously they've been challenged for six months as we've

discussed ad nauseam but the AI story threw a wrench in the work for a lot of names and no

matter how many times these companies say at least in the short term we're not seeing any issue

there's a little bit of an overhang so so in light of that we were pride of this whole thing

doing quite well without a lot of tech participated no but but this is a different environment so I'll

just say the reason I ask how much does the market need tech now so if you're telling me that okay

well oil prices may remain elevated for an extended period of time even if this ends and the

straight reopens as Pippa was telling us it just doesn't the flow just doesn't get back to normal

overnight so for the foreseeable future industrial companies and so many others are going to have

their input costs elevated because the cost of fuel and transporting goods from here to there is

and maybe even manufacturing them in some instances is going to go up so I can't really bank

on the broadening trade right now until that environment changes so I need now tech to perform

better it didn't have to before because the other trade was working so well now it may be impaired

for a little bit sure I'll say a few things first I would I would argue oil will be higher because

besides the complications in the straight you also the geopolitical risk premium was basically zero

before okay and while it might go to zero in the long time in the long term when Marco Rubio's

president of Iran in the in the short term there's going to be some premium there okay so I'm

going to worry about growth a little bit then yeah but but also the second point I was going to make

well the first one I was going to make is Exxon was just a hundred bucks a share it's now 175

dollars a share so you've had a huge run up in these names so the money we've seen this in

in ETF flow in the EPFR data money has gone into the sector all year long and at some point

probably going to rotate out but the more important point is to your question about input costs the

much bigger issue for not that oil and energy doesn't matter because it matters for plastics and

transportation but labor costs are still the biggest issue for the vast majority of companies

and wages are still at least for now relatively contained and so you you do have an offset there

to compensate for the higher input costs I guess my point is this if you had a decision to make would

you feel more comfortable if you believe that oil prices are going to remain elevated and there's

going to be still a bit of maybe chaotic aftermath within the the Middle East whether we're there

or not would you feel more comfortable today putting your dollar into a mega cap tech company

or an industrial or a more cyclical company that's more tied to the to the global economy because

I think I know what the answer would be and I'm hard pressed to figure out how you could answer

a different well without commenting on what solace may or might not do my gut says probably the

industrial or the mag seven because again to I don't want it both ways what I just cake and he

wants to eat it too ladies and gentlemen finish your answer then I know now we're going to have to

save it for the next time go ahead I the names have been beaten up so badly and their growth

profiles are still relatively unchanged their valuations are super attractive again I this is not

what I do so take what I'm saying with a grain of salt but that just looks pretty compelling to

me from an investment standpoint okay don't believe it there guys thank you Brynn Malcolm damn we'll

see you soon we're just getting started here up next much more on today's big rally including

that jump in shares of Apple star Apple analyst Eric Woodring he's standing by he joins us next

you

Apple shares are lower to start the year they haven't been though as weak as some of the other

mega caps for more on why and what lies ahead for the stock we're joined now by Morgan Stanley's

head of U.S. Tech hardware research Eric Woodring welcome back nice to see you thank you for having

me on Scott so I want to start with something that Warren Buffett told Becky quick of our own

Becky quick of course on on CBC this morning lamented that he sold Apple a little too soon and that

he would buy more of it maybe not in this market but if it went down he would buy more and it just

makes me think that this name as I wrote in the intro to to bringing you in it's been resilient

in its own way yeah yes it's down but it's not down off of its high by that much relative to some

of these other big names why do you think that is sure I think there's two factors there primarily

one the cash cow for Apple is obviously the iPhone and the iPhone is doing tremendously well we

obviously know from the December quarter how well it did back then 20% plus growth we have it growing

20% plus again in the March quarter and again we published our our broad smartphone survey

last Monday Apple upgrade rates are at all time highs they're the only company gaining share in

the smartphone market in our survey at least foldables interest is extremely high so said differently

the core of the business is still doing very well and better than it has over the last few years

and then I think the other side of it is as the market is thematically debated the investments

or lack thereof in AI Apple is taking the the capital light asset light approach of investing 13 14

billion dollars in CapEx and licensing technology from Google as opposed to some of the other

large mega caps that are clearly investing a ton and making big bets that have to show an ROI

that threshold for ROI for Apple is just much lower right now can we go as far as to say now Eric

that what was a headwind for Apple that being AI is now a tailwind for this company or is that

still too early I think it's probably still too early to make that claim we have to get to the

developer conference June 8th to understand exactly what Apple's approach will be obviously

we've seen reports of maybe Apple's strategy coming together more so then it has been over the

last two years I'm still a big believer in that we need to learn specifics of what Apple will

provide us users that will be different than others as a means of getting into the AI race and then

also the same question I asked management on last earnings call what is the ROI and what is the time

to pay back these are questions that are still important how are you going to monetize AI

that we still need to learn about so we're taking you know Apple is taking steps forward I think

we have a better idea of strategy I still think we need to learn more at the developer

conference before we put them into that bucket they they did have another headwind and that's been

the rising cost of memory we saw it in a huge run up in in some respects of stocks like

micron etc so where does that leave them now is these elevated memory prices despite a pullback

in some of those marquee names memory prices themselves are are still elevated and it is a it's

got to be some level of a hit to margins we would agree with that if you just look at the June

quarter right now we're we're forecasting a 45 percent blended company gross margin consensus is

at 47.7 percent so I would agree with you Scott that now this might be a cyclical

dynamic here related to memory but it is still a challenge that they have to that they have to

face and my broader universe has to face I have been cautious on my broader universe because of

this exact theme prices are going input costs are going up that creates risk around margins and

around a demand degradation now for apple listen there are some offsets obviously we are we are

well above consensus for the June quarter revenue as well so we're maybe maybe getting to the same

earnings as as consensus but in a very different way but apple has more levers than peers right

they have high end iPhones where demand would be more inelastic where maybe they can take some

price over 40 percent of gross profit dollars comes from high margin services that continues to

kind of chug along and apple is a you know supply chain my astro for lack of a technical term

they'll find ways to push back on other areas of the bill of materials to try to maintain margins

but we think that apple is in this type of an environment really going to try and maximize gross

profit dollars not gross margins and and and and that is that is through pricing that is through

supply chain actions this company is going to market 50th anniversary tomorrow what do you think

Tim Cook's greatest contribution to those 50 will be Tim has done a fantastic job of taking

Steve Jobs's legacy and broadening it right I think Tim does Tim gets the shorter end of the

stick so to say because investors compare him to Steve Jobs he's just a very different CEO he's

been able to take the iPhone and the platform that apple has had and build it from a technology

hardware company into a technology platform and probably the most powerful consumer technology

platform on the face of the earth at least as we stand today and I don't think that he gets

enough credit for that he's obviously made some new incremental bets on things like spatial computing

we'll see where AI goes I think he still wants to see those bets play out before he hands the

baton off but again biggest changes this is no longer a hardware company under Tim Cook this is

a technology platform look at how the multiple has gone under his under under his tenure

stock trades at mid to high 20 times PE pretty consistently that is a sign of the shift in the

business model that again I don't think Tim gets enough credit for right I mean it's kind of

doubled right X cash I mean the correct the multiple has done what it's done when I started

covering apple a little over 10 years ago if the stock reached 15 times PE that was kind of the

oh my gosh you know sell apple now we get up into the 30s and while there might be debate around

what the right valuation is you can't deny that the efforts that he has undergone have led to

that multiple expansion we'll talk to you soon Eric thanks as always I thank you for your time

Eric Woodring of Morgan Stanley still ahead Netflix rallying today the company wants an even bigger

play in the NFL we'll give you those details coming up as we head to break another check of the

majors we're close to the highs on the Dow trying to get to an 1100 point gain now S&P has taken

back 6500 we're up near 3% there and look at the Nasdaq it's the leader today and buy a lot

three and three quarters per cent we're back right after this

all right welcome back Netflix reportedly seeking to add more NFL games to its lineup the

companies made no secret of its interest in expanding its sports offerings are Julia Borsten

joins us now with more tell us more details please well the NFL's mini package of games that is

currently taking to the marketplace is attracting a lot of interest from many companies including

Netflix according to a source closes situation now no comment from Netflix but this does confirm

the Wall Street Journal's report that Netflix is looking to expand from his current package of

two Christmas day games which ends this year to a package which could include a new Thanksgiving

Eve game along with an international game likely in the first week of the season now this comes

as the NFL has reclaimed the right to sell these games as part of its deal with ESPN and as

Netflix hasn't increased his investment in sports events including its first MLB game just last week

now there are other potential buyers for these games including Google's YouTube which has the

rights to NFL Sunday ticket package and last season streamed an international game along with

Amazon which has the rights to stream Thursday night NFL games the NFL's broader right

deals will be up for renegotiation after the 2029 2030 season but the NFL can actually renegotiate

its deal with CBS sooner because CBS's parent paramount sold to Skydance Scott do you think in any

way that this decision if you want to call it that or the you know wanting to have more NFL

activity is is related to not getting the Warner Brothers deal with that have still been

something that would have been sought after by Netflix well I actually think that Netflix laid

the groundwork for wanting more NFL games years ago when it struck his three-year deal to get

those NFL Christmas day games and what we're seeing here is really just an expansion from that it's

not a totally different strategy it's Netflix trying to figure out which games are just not

another weekly game but really could be seen more as events because that's what Netflix's sports

strategy is about they're not as interested in the broad right steals as they are in the more

eventized games or sports rights if you look at what they did for Christmas day having a half-time

show really trying to pump pump it up into a must see event that's the kind of sporting rights

that they're looking for going forward so I would say the paramount deal may may have changed that

but for now they're sticking with the same same strategy we've heard for a while excuse me the

Warner Brothers deal might have changed that I got you Julia thank you as always Julia Boreston

up next the biggest movers as we head into this big close Christina what do you have big close

trattle stocks catching a bit today as hopes grow for an end to the war in Iran we'll tell you which

names are moving and of course why right after this about 10 from the bell back to Christina now

for the stock she's watching what's at the top of your list we got to start with the all of these

airlines mostly hire an optimism grows for an end to the war in Iran oil moving lower should help

bring jet fuel to cost down and that has definitely been hitting airline stocks for quite some

time especially since the conflict began with thousands of flights being canceled united Alaska

American all still down though since late February we can see the biggest surge coming from united

up over 8% cruise names also in that bucket bucket higher on the same hope they've been pressured

by higher fuel costs and of course the Middle East disruption's world Caribbean Carnival

Norwegian and Viking you can just see Carnival it's 8% higher and then last but not least

fertilizer names moving in the opposite direction disruption in the straight of hormones is

Titan supply and really push prices higher if the war eases that pressure could come back down

and so that is why some of these guys that were climbing higher down 9% for CBR partners

all right thank you for your Steena parts and over those we are still very much in the green as we

head towards the closing bells pretty much at the highs of the session Mike sent totally a standing

by to help us break down the final moments plus we get you set up for Nike they do report in overtime

and we do it in the market zone which is next we're now the closing bell market zone Mike

Santoli and Kara Murphy from Kestra investments here to break down these crucial moments

of the trading day plus Gabrielle Fun Rouge watching Nike's report out in overtime Michael go

yeah I mean obviously you have to respect how infatic this move is even with it and you know

it's a quarter end you do have a little bit of kind of like retirement money showing up and

just the the bear's excuse of potentially we have passed the peak uncertainty and oil

disruption if that's true the market is not going to wait around for that so definitely an

element of FOMO here you can quibble with some aspects of this rally today including it's not

really all that all encompassing and broad it's it's certainly broad enough but it's not one

of those stampede's higher of actual buying it seems like a lot of hedges coming off and a lot

of investors and traders saying let me not lean too negatively after this long slide so we haven't

cleared any of the important upside hurdles yes V bottoms do happen as you and I have talked about

once in a while but I don't think that should be your default assumption oil is down but also

again not as aggressively as you might expect given the strength of this equity move so I think

you respect it but you still say the market has plenty to prove oh the magic words that I think

you said in how we've been speaking about this is the market doesn't wait around I've said to you

and I've asked you the idea of you know words are are short at this point we need clarity and we

need something more concrete but we're still willing to give certain headlines the benefit of the

doubt rather than wait around we are I mean obviously when the conditions are right I mean we

had a lot of failed rallies in the last three days we're not even in the S&P up to Thursday mornings

hot okay so you definitely did ring out a lot of that kind of hope and that sense of upside

risk that had been animating this market for most of the month of March and so I guess the scene

was set for people to say hey let me not wait around just in case things actually look more

constructive from here we have some version of a declaration of you know the end of hostilities

and maybe we can move a little bit higher in this now much wider range that we've been in for six

months yeah almost a 4% gain now on the NASDAQ are you going to tackle this at the top of the

hour with milk yeah I mean every piece of it we are we do have somebody on the derivative side

who's going to say you know how people are are positioning for this move right here as well as

from from Deutsche Bank and of course we're going to break down the Nike numbers all right we'll

look forward to that we'll see you then top of the hour over time with Mike and Mel Gabby tell us

more about Nike getting a little drowned out because of this incredible market move today but

it's still really important yeah it's all a huge report tonight so Nike is expected to report

earnings per share of 28 cents on revenue of 11.24 billion the key thing to watch tonight will

be how much progress CEO Elliott Hill has made on his turnaround plan by now investors are aware

of the company's turnaround won't be linear but they still want more clarity on how long it's going

to take last quarter Nike saw gains in North America but that good news was overshadowed by steep

declines in China so tonight investors are going to want clearer timelines on both of those regions

can it sustain the growth that's seen in North America and how long will it take to turn things

around in China profitability will also be in focus Nike has already been crushed by tariffs

and efforts to liquidate sale inventory and now production costs could get higher because of

that war in the Middle East Scott. All right Gabby we'll see what happens appreciate you thank you

thank you Gabrielle Fun Rouge. Care is good to have you here how are you? Yeah thanks

so looking at your notes you put this conflict in the category of noise with AI disruption

tariffs private credit this feels like it's been a lot more than just your run of the mill noise

it's like breaks your eardrum it's a little loud right for sure and this is not to downplay that

this is a very important event for the people who are directly impacted for people who are filling

their gas tanks every day but when we think about the market typically and we've done some work

looking back to like 1940 when we have a large geopolitical event like this markets tend to

look through it more than two thirds of the time 12 months after an event like this markets are

actually up what that means is that these conflicts tend to be fairly well contained they tend to

be short lived and then the market then gets back to fundamentals. Okay so let's let's look through it

let's just let's have that exercise I look through it and I want to do why. So I think think about

where is earnings going to be coming from and there as we look out to 2026 expectations are

that US companies are going to grow earnings by like 15% that compares to 9% on a long-term

historical average that's phenomenal earnings power. Well you believe that you're going to be

able to meet those expectations and you and you still must believe that. Yes and this is this

assumes that the conflict is relatively short lived meaning over the next couple of months and

oil begins to receive not necessarily back to its pre-conflict level but to a more sustainable level.

I mean shouldn't I believe then that the mega caps are the ones who are going to deliver the

most robust earnings growth so just go right back to that trade as now they maybe are showing

signs of life again. So I think looking at the valuations degradation that we've had there I think

those are probably going to be the first ones to start to rebound because they have the most

identifiable earnings power but I also think what we've seen is outside of the mag 7 call it

mid cap small caps we're starting to see a re acceleration of earnings growth among those

and you have much lower valuations so they get a chance to start to catch up in the second half

of the year. It's funny that the Russell 2000 I was just looking because I've been so fixated on

the the larger averages like I think most people have the Russell's still positive year to date.

100% that's kind of surprising given not only just what's been happening in the growth scare if

you want to call it that but the backup and rates so is that a sign that there's some durability

I think so and I think this market shift started to happen a while ago if you look at the mag 7

overall they actually peaked at the end of October and among you know S&P 500 Russell 2000 EME

further actually the worst performing asset class year to date so again it doesn't mean that the

that the conflict doesn't hurt oil prices do hurt but if this comes to an end there's a lot of

opportunity out there. All right well we'll see if it comes to an end and when Karen thanks for

being here it's Karen Murphy joining us Bell is going to ring in a moment and we've got a

better than 1100 point game now on the Dow it's about two and a half percent the Nasdaq obviously

is the biggest winner of the day and near 4% rise and Vity is back above what some saw as a real key

level of $170 on these hopes of an end sooner rather than later.