Could Prop 50 Backfire on CA Dems?

0:00A year ago, California Democrat politicians rigged the Congressional map in California to give their side five more seats and flip the House majority. But as we approach the November midterm, what's the latest polling showing in those five target seats? Could Republicans actually retain them? And did Proposition 50 put three additional Democrat seats in play coming up the full analysis on the impact of Prop 50 as we approach the final weeks of the 2026 midterm election? Could Republicans outperform in California? And how can you help? All that and more coming up. These are the seats. You may live near one of these seats. If you do, we need you to help more than ever. I'm Carl DeBio, Chairman of Reform California and a California State Representative.

1:00And a year ago, we were fighting Proposition 50. Gavin Newsom and California Democrats election-reguring, gerrymandering rigged map. The Democrats basically said, we don't like fair maps, we don't like independent redistricting commissions. So we're just going to let the politicians have the power to manipulate the lines. And that's what they did with Prop 50. All with an intent of flipping five Republican seats in California to the Democratic side. Now we are seeing candidate races shape up. We see polling and we are just eight weeks out of the midterm election. And when you take a look at all of the seats in play across the country, the polling shows that races are so tight and there are so few toss-up seats, legitimate toss-up seats, because both Democrats and Republicans have manipulated the lines on these districts across the country. It's bad, I'm not going to defend it, it's happened.

2:01But because of all that line manipulation, there's only a handful of toss-up seats and California has a pretty big portion of the toss-up seats. In other words, the House majority, whoever controls it, may very well come down to the outcome of the races in five of the Prop 50 target seats that Democrats are trying to flip. And now three additional seats that the Democrats have put in jeopardy on their side because of Prop 50. Oh, wouldn't that be glorious if suddenly Democrats wasted themselves on their own battard because Prop 50 made three of their seats a bit more competitive. So we have the analysis and the location of these seats. You might actually live in one of the seats or near one of the seats, so you might be able to participate in the campaigns to flip these seats or save these seats. But I'm encouraging you to go online to our campaign headquarters. ReformCalifornia.org, reformCalifornia.org, that's where you can get involved in the fight

3:02to save these Republican seats, to flip the Democrat seats, to save the House majority in the 2026 midterm election right here in California. Plus remember, we're fighting the tax increases all around the state of California. We're trying to pass the taxpayer protection trio, yes, on 41, 42, 43, those three initiatives are so big when it comes to making it harder for politicians to raise your taxes. And finally, as you know, the big game changer, yes, on Prop 39, the bipartisan solution to voter ID, all of those campaigns, the headquarters, how you can sign up to contribute, to be a volunteer, to attend an event, or just get our vote or guide at reformCalifornia.org, reformCalifornia.org. So on that page, I'm going to talk about the target seats. Scroll down to priority campaigns and click on that link, and that'll take you to the list of target seats in California. And I'm going to talk about just the congressional ones today, the top five seats, and there

4:05are three of the six on the watch seats that I am now seeing as competitive. The other three were keeping an eye on, but not as competitive. It's a tough cycle. So let me go through the state of play for the five congressional seats that Democrats are seeking to gerrymander into their column. First up, the congressional district one. This is currently held by my good friend James Gallagher, who won a special election earlier this year when Doug LaMalfa passed away in the middle of his term. This is a hard seat for Republicans to retain. This originally was written as a seat that was heavily democratic, but if you take a look at the special election numbers, in the special election, Gallagher did very well against the Democrats. In the normal election for the full term, the nomination for this November, it's much tighter, and that reflects the manipulation of the district lines.

5:08I'll show you the map in just a moment. In each of these seats, I'm going to show you the map you get to see if you live near or no someone who lives in the seat to participate in the campaign. Gallagher got 42.1%, barely edging out Mike McGuire, but that's because there was another Democrat in the race. So about 55% of the vote went to Democrats. But Gallagher has really taken Mike McGuire to task for his extremism. This is again a tough seat. The original district map looked like this. It had all of North California united up to the Oregon border, but the new map stretches all the way over to the Bay Area. So this is the old map here, Northern California. The new map goes all the way down here to the Bay Area. That's how Mike McGuire, a Bay Area liberal, is running for this seat. This one, I would say, tilts in the favor of Democrats, but don't count James Gallagher

6:08out. It's a target seat that he can win. The next seat is the sixth congressional seat. This is Kevin Kylie running for this seat. He went to the independent column, not Republican anymore, but he's going to caucus with the Republicans. In that primary, he only got 24.3% of the vote, but take a look. 44.4% of the vote went to Republicans. Kylie, if you consider him a Republican, Mike stands field. The rest came to Democrats. Again, a very tough seat, but Kylie is an aggressive campaigner. He's well-funded. Let me show you the district map there and how it changed. You've got the old district that stretched all the way over to the southern portion, and northern portion of Sacramento. Kylie used to represent a central valley seat that had portions of the Sacramento and Roosevelt area, Placer County, El Dorado County.

7:10Now this seat starts out in Placer County, which is very Republican. That stretches all the way over into heavily Democratic areas in Sacramento County. Very tough seat. This is where they're scooping up a lot of the Democrat votes to try to tilt this in favor of Democrats. Again, I would put this seat in play, but tilt to the Democrats. The next seat up, a pure toss up. This is the 13th congressional district, Adam Gray, who casts the deciding vote in favor of the gas tax increase in 2017. He's running against Kevin Lincoln, former mayor of Stockton. This is complete toss up. Here the district didn't change much. It was marginally modified to be a bit more favorable to Adam Gray. Adam Gray barely beat John D'Warte by just 500 votes in the 2024 election.

8:11Here we have an opportunity for a flip from Democrat to Republican with Kevin Lincoln. That's in the central valley. If you take a look at it closer, we're talking about Modesto, Stockton, Menteca, Turlock, Merced, Madeira. Those are the areas of central valley where Kevin Lincoln is fighting. We have a lot of target seats in the Assembly in the state Senate, which will make it, again, a better race for Kevin Lincoln because he's going to get all sorts of ground support in those races. The next seat is also in central valley. It's David Valedereo. He's the incumbent Republican. He is always outperformed in the central valley, but Democrats made his seat much, much more difficult. In the primary, he got 40.7%, so 59.3% went to the Democrats, but he didn't campaign in the primary. He saved his money and that's exactly what he should be doing. He's always come stronger in the general election.

9:15He's up against this guy, Randy Villegas, who's a real left-wing lunatic. This guy is a Democrat socialist. The seat basically is Bakersfield all the way up to Hanford, Porterville, Delano, and it's south of Viselia. This seat, a lot of Bakersfield in this district, McFarland. Again, we have some good Assembly in the state Senate candidates running underneath this seat, so Valedereo will get some support on the ground from the synergy across those campaigns. I always say these candidates should be running as a team, helping each other out, turning the vote out, persuading independence together as a slate. David Valedereo, I actually think this is a complete toss-up. But likely tilt to Paladero because he has always come from behind. He's very popular in Central Valley, and Randy Villegas is completely far-left Democrat

10:17socialist. Here's in the 48th congressional district. This one spans Riverside and San Diego County. It used to be Darryl, Isaacite, but of course, he's to chicken blank to fight for it. He betrayed President Trump and basically changing his mind at the last minute, not running for his seat. I just don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out, Darryl. But Jim Desmond, my good friend, is running in that seat. The latest polling had him at 42%, Marty Von Wilpert at 45%. This is complete toss-up. Again, Jim Desmond is very popular in the district. Here is the map up close. We got Palm Springs, Ick, all the way over to Winchester, to Mecula, along the 15-free way. Then it snakes all the way down to Vista and San Marcos in Escondito in the San Diego area. Again, there's no ties in this district communities of interest.

11:18This is a purely gerrymandered map. But Desmond can win this seat, pure toss-up. Those are the five seats that Democrats originally thought that they would be able to flip over and secure. They already have one seat, though, of the five that they wanted, which was they pushed young Kim and Ken Calvert into the same district. The seat that was remaining is no way, shape or form, possible for Republicans to win. We wrote that one off. We've already lost one of the five seats. One of the seats, the 13th district, the Adam Gray seat, became more in play. Those five seats, I believe, are definitely winnable for Republicans. If we win just one or two of the five seats, that is an absolute overperformance for Republicans given how bad the Prop 50 map is. I believe that is possible in those five seats, particularly with Valedero and either Kevin

12:20Lincoln or Jim Desmond. You can win two of those seats, maybe more. Those are the seats we're going to fight like Hackfort. Prop 50 made certain seats a little bit more competitive. Here's one, and we have three of them. I call them on the watch. Here is the 21st Congressional District. This is Kyle Kirkland versus Jim Costa. In this seat, it got about 41% for Republicans in the primary. Costa got 42.2. Other Democrats were running. This seat also in the Central Valley is Fresno, and it goes all the way down to Viselia. It also overlays the assembly and state senate seats that we're targeting. There's a lot of synergy, a lot of fights going on in Central Valley. If you live in Central Valley, you are desperately needed. You can impact any of these seats, including the assembly and state senate seats. Kirkland versus Costa.

13:20This is one to watch. It's a competitive seat. In a better cycle, this is absolutely tilt Republican. But I would say it is tilt Democrat right now, but things can change. The Congressional District 45, which is in Orange County, Derek Tran versus Chungvot. Chungvot is an amazing candidate. I really have high hopes for him, not just to this cycle, but into the future. This is the Congressional map. It is Fountain Valley, Westminster, Garden Grove, a lot of Asians living in this area. Maybe Democrat in their registration or independent in their registration, but they can cross over and vote Republican. Where we're going to have a bit more of a problem is in the LA portions, like Serita, Sartesia. They've got Cypheris, Hawaiian Gardens, Los Alamedos. It snakes all the way up to the northern part of Orange County, Brea, and Placensia. And Buena Park. Again, a gerrymandered district, but Chungvot do not count them out. This is the sleeper.

14:20This is a toss-up. It is not tilt Democrat. I believe this is a toss-up if Chungvot gets the resources and the help. He can actually squeak this out. Finally, the 47th Congressional District, Dave Men. Do you I Dave against Jenny Rae LaRue? Jenny Rae is a fierce fighter. I love her. He got 45.4% of the vote in the primary. Maybe we need to take a look at the numbers at it all up. 54% went to the Democrats. 46% went to Republicans. But there wasn't any money spent on Republican turnout. Jenny Rae has the ability to win this. You zoom in. It is SEAL Beach, Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa, Irvine, and Laguna Beach. This is a winnable seat for Republicans. Jenny Rae is working her butt off, and I am absolutely behind her. I think that she can win this seat, I am putting her on the radar. It is still tilt Democrat this cycle, but in any other cycle, it is completely toss-up.

15:25Don't count her out. These are the seats. You may live near one of these seats. If you do, we need you to help more than ever as a volunteer. And also, remember, you probably live in one of the state senate seats that are targets. So when you are on that website, reformcalifonia.org, check out the state senate seats and the state assembly seats. As I mentioned, a lot of these seats, assembly, congress, senate are all nested within each other. So you volunteering in any of these seats helps the ticket. And that is the way we want to campaign is if you turn out one Republican vote in your neighborhood, and we will give you a list of low propensity Republicans, give you a door hanger, and if you just nudge them and turn them out, you are helping all of our target seats in that district. So check out the website reformcalifonia.org. Sign up as a volunteer, chip in a contribution. That's the lay of the land with prop 50. It's not a good environment for Republicans in California.

16:28We are likely going to lose some of those seats, if not all of them. I don't want to lose all of them. If we win any of them, that would be the big surprise. And that actually may be the margin of victory for Republicans to keep the U.S. House representatives. In the past two cycles, it's been the California seats that have determined the House majority. National party has written this off as dead. This map is still giving us opportunities to flip seats, to save seats, and save the majority. And moving forward, this map is not as favorable as Democrats think. It involved, let's fight, even with a rigged map, we have to make sure that we get these candidates across the finish line and save some of these seats. Until next time, I'm Carl Dimaio, Chairman of ReformCalifonia, and a California State Representative. Thanks for watching, and I hope you enjoyed this episode. But before you click away, please subscribe to this channel and click that notification button so you get updated when we post new episodes.

17:31Plus, like this video and share it with your friends so that we can help spread our message across the state.