Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara

Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara are the co-founders of Kalshi, the first federally regulated prediction market in the US. They sit down with John and Matt Huang to discuss growing their revenue 11x in six months, why they sued their own regulator to list election markets, and how they are building the "New York Stock Exchange of events." They cover why prediction markets are an antidote to social media polarization, the mechanics of market making for culture, and their vision for trading everything from GPU shipments to the Oscars and the weather.

Timestamps

(00:01:39) Suing the government

(00:14:42) Why now?

(00:17:12) Kalshi by numbers

(00:20:58) Solving market making

(00:31:33) Agentic trading

(00:33:43) Sharps

(00:38:45) Stripe Connect

(00:39:33) Evolving Kalshi

(00:44:50) Who loses from Kalshi?

(00:47:35) Insider trading

(00:53:28) The ethics of sports contracts

(00:58:08) New derivatives

(01:04:27) Politics

Article(s):

• On the Observational Implications of Knightian Uncertainty – Kevin Hassett & Weifeng Zhong (AEI)
• The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis – Citrini Research