Crossover episode with Chance Liebau

We're sitting down with Lockdown Royals Postcast, host Chance Libot next.

What did he make about the offseason?

Let's find out in this edition of Lockdown Royals.

You are Lockdown Royals, your daily Kansas City Royals podcast.

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We are tuned into another edition of Lockdown Royals and the Lockdown Podcast Network.

I'm your host, Jack Johnson, alongside Chance Libot, who you can listen to after each and

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Well, Chance, it's been a while really appreciate you coming on and now that the dust has settled,

we know for the most part who's going to be on this team, we know who's going to be

on the bench, the bullpen, the rotation, what letter grade, and I'm not big on letter grades,

but what letter grade would you give the royals for this 2025 slash 2026 off season?

I'd probably give it like a B minus and I think that it gets graded on a curve because

you look around the division and you saw the rest of the teams, oh, the Tigers really,

I would say probably take a step back.

Maybe the white socks got a little bit better with some additions around the corners,

but that's a team that I'm going to expect to compete in the AL Central this year.

But look at the Guardians, you look at the twins, they didn't really do a whole lot

this off season.

The Tigers made some leaps and bounds to try and improve their pitching staff with

bringing Justin Berlander and bringing Frumbervaldez.

When you look at those guys, I think those are quality additions.

I really like Frumber and that rotation with him being a ground ball machine in that ballpark.

But I still find the Tigers offense to be lacking that real firepower and they played

a really pitcher friendly ballpark.

When you look at what the royals did, they brought in some stability.

I really, I know that you talked about Starling Mark Tan, I'm sure we'll get to that,

but I love that addition of the outfield.

I think that he is a great insurance policy, especially for the dollar figure that

they got him for.

I mean, just a million dollars guaranteed, they can cut bait with him and if things don't

work out and like that.

I mean, it's not really like they invest a ton of money in him.

I love the eyes of Collins pickup.

I feel like that gives them an on base guy something they really didn't have and maybe

he regresses a little bit, but I really don't see it being a regression year for him.

And I think that they are building around some core pieces.

You expect some guys to take a leap forward, whereas last year you were expecting guys to

maintain their pace like Bobby, who was coming off of the best shortstop season since

A-Rod with Vinnie coming off of a historic season at first base.

And Salvi, who was trying to beat the age curve last year, he really had his peaks and

valleys last year, but you don't have to rely on them as much this year because you might

get guys like Jack Caglione and Carter Jensen to take a step forward into being respectable

players in the lineup.

And then the rotation, I love the rotation.

I think this is a pitching staff that can really dominate because they've got some real

dudes there.

There are some regression candidates for sure, but I think that when you have guys like

Ryan Berger and Stephen Colock as insurance policies, that makes things so much more stable

in the rotation.

So I really like what they did and the most underrated move I think is bringing Matt Strong

to really give them a 7-8-9 in that bullpen that rivals most teams in baseball.

Looking at the bullpen, I think it's an underrated part of this team and really for the great

ones out there, you can't make a deep run in October if you have a lackluster bullpen.

You have to rely on them too much in the postseason and though the bullpen last year didn't

get the opportunity to compete in October, certainly that is the goal this year.

But a talking point so far in camp has been Carlos Estevez and the lack of velocity.

Now he is typically somebody that builds up slower.

I'm not sure I've ever seen him build up this slowly where his mid 90s fastball, upper

90s fastball is sitting somewhere between 87 and 88 where it's registering as a changeup.

When it comes to the world baseball classic, is that maybe where you'll get a better

gauge on him of, man, if he's in the low 90s when he pitches, we really have a problem

on our hand because these guys are trying to win and you're not slowly building up an

tournament like that because that's when my red flag is going to go up.

He goes out there, you know, couple games into this tournament and the Velo's not there.

I think that's going to be on my radar of something's not right and maybe you can't

even count on him to be a closer to begin the year.

Yeah, I mean, you brought it up that he's never really been a fast guy that climbs fast

early in the season and I think that last year he got out to a bit of a slow start.

But the thing with Estevez is, you know, he's got that fastball that plays in the mid to

high 90s but I've never really seen him as a guy that is like a Greg Holland who's just

got that fastball that can rise.

His best pitch I think is his slider and his changeup and I think that his fastball

plays off of that and obviously you want a guy to have that velocity.

But I mean, I do think that if he is, you know, 93 to 94 in the World Baseball Classic,

it starts to raise some red flags.

But at the end of the day, I think the Royals have a stable enough bullpen to be able to

survive him having an all right May, an all right April and all right May.

I think that Lucas Ersek can close in a pinch.

I think that guys like Stephen Cruz and Matt Strong can close in a pinch.

I'm really interested to see how they manage this bullpen this year because of what we

saw from after our last year and he was a little bit different how he managed it.

So we'll see how they manage it.

But I think it is something to keep an eye on, especially if they're playing at some

high leverage innings how they use him in the World Baseball Classic.

Really, there's only one spot to wrap up this conversation on the bullpen that I kind

of think is up for grabs because you have about seven spots already claimed.

Now, maybe that's me being too high on Daniel Lynch because of the increase in his overall

stuff.

I would take him over Bailey Falter.

I could see them trying to swing a trade for Bailey Falter because he's out of options

and somebody out there is going to need starting pitching depth.

And the Royals have a ton of it and maybe they could get an extra bench bat if they weren't

thrilled with what they've seen from Nick Loft and Rojas, Tyler Tollberg, Drew Waters,

John Rafe, so on so forth.

But for that final spot in the bullpen, we did an episode on it last week where Tana

comes down to Ryan Berger, Alex Lang, Stephen Colick, Lewandar Ovela.

Those are my four.

Colick has the oblique injury.

Ovela is pitching in the World Baseball Classic.

Alex Lang, I liked what I've seen so far.

The Vila looks good coming off of the injury that he had so we know he's healthy, but also

he's got that minor league option as well.

I'm going with Ryan Berger in my final roster projection.

I know that they want to keep him stretched out as a starter, but maybe the better move

because he can be a better fit for the bullpen in long relief.

Maybe you need him for a high leverage one, any role, he's better suited than Lewandar

Ovela at these stages in their career where Ovela, if they like his upside as a starter,

this is the perfect opportunity to go, all right, you maybe can go be the starter in Omaha,

be the number one where Berger is going to be our guy at the bullpen, where maybe we're

counting on him just a little bit more than a typical long relief guy.

I think you brought up a key part, both of them have options left.

I think that Ovela probably suits better high leverage situations.

I think his stuff plays up in the bullpen.

I'd be curious to see how Berger's stuff plays in the bullpen because he's not really

an overpowering guy.

He misses a lot of barrels, but he doesn't miss a lot of bats.

I think that my money would probably be on Lang getting the bump there just because

he's a guy that's pitched in the bullpen throughout the majority of his career, really.

When you want to get Ryan Berger, you want to get Louinda Ovela some meanings down in

AAA, and they all have the flexibility with the options.

I do think that it's going to be interesting to see just how they manage that last spot

in the bullpen.

Is it a long relief role?

Is it a skip a starter role?

Is it a six-man rotation role?

That's really going to be the deciding factor.

I'll be curious.

I mean, the World Baseball Classic is going to be interesting.

How does Louinda Ovela get used in the World Baseball Classic?

Is it as a starter?

Is it as a bullpen guy?

Is that could definitely lead to Macinturo making some decisions when it comes to the opening

day roster?

Is he wanting him to be in Omaha getting innings?

Or does he want him being a guy that can get guys out in the sixth inning when they need

a guy to get out?

Yeah.

I mean, Ovela is such an interesting case because the stuff is obviously there, and

I rarely see Macinturo speak that highly of somebody that doesn't really have a defined

role.

He is younger than people expect he is, and we saw Carlos Hernandez in the 2023 World

Baseball Classic, go pitch for Team Venezuela, and his stuff was incredible, and that led to

a pretty good 2023 for him.

Now, I know long-term, that's not the bar for Louinda Ovela.

You want to be better than Carlos Hernandez.

But if you see Lou go over there, pump at $98.99 because of the atmosphere, that would

maybe be the only thing that would lead me to say, okay, maybe let's go with Ovela

now in the bullpen, and we're going to put Ryan Berger down in AAA to start the year

with Colick as those two guys in the rotation.

But we'll see, the bullpen is going to be something to watch all the way up until the final

week of camp.

The bench is another spot, too, where we need to get in that a little bit more, but since

we're up on our first break here of the show, let's take our first break, come back, get

chances thoughts on the bench.

I think there's only one more spot up for grabs.

Maybe there's multiple, though.

How does Chan sing it play out?

We'll talk about that next on Lockdown Royals.

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We are back here on Lockdown Royals and the Lockdown podcast network.

I'm your host, Jack Johnson.

This is the host of the Lockdown Royals postcast chance.

Leave out, check him out after each and every Royals game.

And before our second segment, want to tell you about that every day or club option that

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Let's talk about this bench chance.

To me, there's three solidified spots.

If you want to debate that totally up to you, I got Michael Massey having one of the

bench spots.

I've got Lane Thomas having one of the bench spots and I've got Starling Marta surprise

surprise.

It's three guys that are still on big lead deals.

Michael Massey is somebody they view as a second baseman slash left fielder.

Marta and Thomas are those outfield depth options whenever Marta is Bell and Isaac Collins

are not in the lineup.

When it comes to the last spot, there are more than just a few options.

The royals could turn to.

You've got John Rafe, you've got Drew Waters, you've got Nick Lofton, you've got Josh Rohost,

you have Kevin Newman, you've got Brandon Jury, tons and tons of options they can go for.

If it's your decision, who does grab that final bench spot and also feel free to debate.

Maybe if Massey's not going to be on the opening day roster, if Lane Thomas or Marta

for whatever reason wouldn't be on the roster, the floor is yours with this.

I'd probably side with Nick Lofton just because he is able to play pretty much every position.

I know that Macatura talked about it when you were down in spring training that he wants

him to play in the outfield in the infield and we know how much he values that.

I think that Tyler Tolbert definitely could play a factor here as well.

Being a speedster, he could play second, he's played short, he's played the outfield

before.

I think that having him on the bench could also lead to that, but Starling Marta is

a guy who's able to steal bases.

His legs are not what they used to be, but he's a guy that could be a pinch runner and

a pinch.

Lane Thomas, the exact same thing.

I don't think you need to have a true number one stolen base guy like Tyler Tolbert.

Even Tyler Tolbert last year wasn't automatic on the base pass.

We talked about it many times on this show how frustrating his base running was last year

for the Royals, how much it cost him sometimes those late innings.

I would say it probably goes to Nick Lofton because he is a guy that can play every

where.

I don't love Nick Lofton as a bench bat just because he is not a good pinch hit or throughout

his career.

He's never hit above 200 as a pinch hit or in his career, but I think that his position

versatility kind of trumps that of Tyler Tolbert.

I think that if I'm not mistaken, I believe Lofton's out of options, I could be mistaken

there.

Guys that I don't want to see, I don't want to see John Rave, there's no reason to have

another left-handed bat on the Major League squad that can't hit, that can only play the

outfield.

There's no reason to have Drew Waters on the opening day roster.

He cannot hit at all.

He can play the outfield.

He's okay, but I just think that the Drew Waters experiments pretty much over.

I don't want to see John Rave out there anymore, although he does provide a little bit of a

spark sometimes.

He's a solid base runner, a solid defensive player, but I just think that when it comes to

what they need on that bench, what they're lacking, it's a right-handed, every position

bat.

Lofton provides that as long as it's in a small role.

Yeah.

If I was to look at all the options there, John Rave to me gives you the most upside offensively.

The issue is it doesn't make any sense to carry three outfielders when the majority of these

outfielders that are starting, you're going to be playing every single day.

That's where it comes down, in my opinion, to Nick Lofton and Josh Rojas.

Josh Rojas has looked good in camp.

Lofton same thing, and I would like to have two lefties on the bench and two righties

on the bench.

The royals do have a lot of starting lefties, so they could go with three righties on

the bench.

Nick Lofton as David Leskey, who does phenomenal work, has said he's looked better defensively

than Josh Rojas in camp.

But it's always a good problem to have when you have a position battle for the fourth and

final bench spot, much different when you're talking about a battle at a starting position.

And is there anywhere on the diamond you are seeing a position battle that's not being

talked about?

I know that commenters on the podcast will say, I'm not sold that Jonathan Indy is the

day one starter over Michael Massey.

I could see Massey starting over him.

I don't agree with that.

I see Jonathan Indy of being the starting second baseman.

Otherwise, it would have made no sense to tender his contract in the off season.

I don't look around the starting nine and see true competition anywhere other than

center field.

And they're going to run that platoon with Thomas and his bill.

So is there a spot that I'm missing that you could see there being maybe a position battle

the deeper we get in the camp?

I think you could definitely see Massey compete for a b's.

I don't know.

I think it's more so going to be, you know, Jonathan Indy is probably going to play 120 games.

Massey is going to play in 75.

I know the math doesn't add out to, you know, equally 162, but I'm saying that they're

going to platoon.

They're going to give each other reps because Massey's been hitting the ball much better

and spring training.

And, you know, I've been on the record talking about it where I think that Massey, his late

season surge when he got healthy, the fact that he wasn't playing left field, the fact

that he wasn't playing every day, I think that points to some positive, positive progression

for him.

He's still got to hit fastballs.

He's got to use all parts of the field.

I think that for him, I think that while the talk of the fences coming in talks about

well, you're going to see Caglione and Bobby and Vinnie, I think those guys down in the

order that have a little bit of sneaky pop like Massey, like India, I think those guys

are going to really see a bump in their power numbers.

We saw what Jonathan India did when he was in Cincinnati, which is one more hitter friendly

environments in baseball.

I mean, he was a silver slugger candidate for much of his career in Cincinnati and he

lost that last year because he was playing in cold weather.

He was playing in a pitcher friendly ballpark.

I think we can see those guys have much better seasons.

Both of them really because I like what Jonathan India provides when he's down in the line

up.

I think that while his profile probably is better as a lead-off guy, I think that the reality

of the situation is, he just wasn't all that good in the lead-off spot.

I think if you hit him in seven hole, I think he provides a little bit more, but I think

they're both solid defensively and others.

A lot of people who don't like India defensively, I think you can sacrifice that defense,

that defensive second base if he's hitting well.

But I do think that Massey and India are going to get a more equal platoon than people think,

just because it's baseball.

You're not going to have everybody, nobody's going to play 162 games for this Royals team.

I would go on the record of saying.

I think that it's going to be a pretty solid platoon at second, left, center, and even

right for a certain extent.

Yeah, and looking at second base, you know, Jonathan India is somebody that is not in

the good graces of Royals fans because he was traded for in the off season.

Of course, there was a lot of excitement and hype around what he could do from the lead-off

spot and injuries really derailed his season.

I talked with him.

It was a big point of it.

I thought, you know, to your great point there about the fences coming in with guys that

have maybe that sneaky pop.

Jonathan India saying that early on and trying to adjust to Kauffman Stadium, hitting

a ball hard, hitting a ball deep, as early as opening day, it kind of forced him to change

his swing, which then resulted in him not being himself.

Where now at the fence is coming in, last question in terms of these two guys before

he hit our final break at the show, who would it better more?

Long term, maybe we should say, is it a guy like India or is it a guy like Masi?

Because Masi, I mean, with the old Kauffman Stadium dimensions, you go back to 2024,

even though he was not 100% durable all the time, and even in 2023, there's like 20 home

run potential there, in my opinion.

Now you bring the fences and there were a couple of balls that died on the warning track

that even if he gave you 10 to 15, that's a heck of a lot better maybe than people might

be expected for him.

Whereas Jonathan India, if he's a 15 home run bad at second base, that can increase his

value as well.

Yeah, I mean, hot take, I think we could see 24 plus home runs out of the second base

position this year for the royals just because of the guys that are there.

And I think that long term, I think it values Jonathan India more, like you said, I think

it changes the swing a little bit, he's able to be more of himself.

I also think moving down the line up helps him especially.

I just think that I think it probably benefits Jonathan India more because it's back to kind

of his roots where he was at in Cincinnati.

It's more of a comfort thing for Michael Masi.

He's always played his home games at Kauffman Stadium, might be a little bit of an adjustment

for him trying to gauge what the dimensions are, but I think that the second base spot

for the royals, I had more confidence coming into it this year than I did probably at

the trade deadline last year where it was like, okay, do they need to go out and get

another second base meant to compete, do they need to maybe add some competition this

offseason?

I think that the more I've gone back and kind of gauged what they've done in the past,

I think that I'm more confident with those guys coming into this year than I was at any

point last year.

Yeah, it'll be something to watch to it.

We've said that a lot in this episode, but it's second base, assuming how long would

Leash be with Jonathan India if he's not cutting it, it will be a true platoon where

Andy is going to face lefties and Masi faces righties, I'm sure we'll get a better estimate

really of the playing time for both those guys in the final week of spring training.

Okay, let's take our final break of the show.

When we come back, we'll wrap up this episode with Chance Lever.

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We are wrapping up this Monday edition of Lockdown Royals and the Lockdown Podcasts Network.

I'm your host, Jack Johnson.

The host of the Lockdown Royals Postcast is here with us in Chance Lever.

We'll have interviews all week long because, of course, I mentioned last week, I'm on

vacation.

So the time I'm talking to you, this isn't the past, but still we're hoping we're giving

you a fun episode to end this one, though, Chance.

Let's go over some hot takes here because I know you've got some brewing.

I'll give you some brewing as well.

And we're talking hot takes.

We mean hot, not lukewarm stuff that you're going to stick your neck out there for, whether

it be somebody you're really buying stock in, somebody you are not buying in whatsoever.

If there's this first one, we'll just go back and forth with this.

He's final five to six minutes or so.

Your first hot take going in the 2026.

This can be royals related or it can be baseball related.

What would it be?

I think Jack Caglione wins the 2026 home run derby.

I think that he is going to be in the home run derby, whether he's having a good season

or not because that BP power, it plays.

I mean, there was, I think there was talk last year about him maybe being a final candidate

in there.

We know that Major League Baseball loves their All-Star weekend.

I think that if you were to put a guy pop for pop up there BP power, I think Jack Caglione.

I think he's in the home run derby this year.

I think he wins it because I think that he is going to have, I think that he's going

to have that good of a season.

I'm really high on Jack Caglione.

Everything I've seen from spring training, I'm back on the wagon.

I'm back on Jack Caglione as a breakout star.

I know that last year there were some frustrating seasons and there was a lot of people that

are like sending back down a triple A, but I think that he's going to be a real impact

back for the royals this year.

I think that he has a really good season as a year two player at the bigs.

Yeah, I mean, even if he's hidden 205 or 210, but has 25 home runs by the All-Star break,

he's going to be in the derby just because you know that with the power he possesses,

most of his home runs are majestic.

The home run derby is going to want guys that can park the ball 485 feet from home plate

and he certainly has that capability of doing it, even if it is just BP.

My heart take would be that by the time we get to the end of the year, the royals' best

rotation will not include Seth Lugo or Michael Walker.

Look, those guys have done a tremendous job in steadying and calming the waters over

the last couple of years and I'm not trying to overreact to what we saw at the tail end

of last year.

This is more so about what I think Ryan Berger, Lewinder Oval and Stephen Colott can provide.

But those guys can provide is pure lights out stuff when they're on their A game.

I mean, we've seen the movement on some of these pitches with Oval, with Colock, with

Berger and if Boobitch and Reagans can stay healthy and let's say that Lugo and Walker

are fine, you just have a couple of young guys that can really take the rotation to the

next level.

It'll be tough to do, but that's a move I'm willing to make where you say, okay, we

want Ryan Berger in a do or die game or Seth Lugo.

And I would say that if Seth Lugo is projecting the way he's projecting and the way Berger

is going as well, then I maybe would want Ryan Berger at the end of the year.

To me, when you've got young pitchers like this, at some point they're going to just explode.

They're going to burst onto the scene and they're going to be too good to ignore.

They're going to be too elite to ignore and when you speak this highly about those three

guys, at some point the wheels are going to fall off completely for Lugo and Walker.

I'm hoping it's not this year, but I would say if the wheels are getting to the postseason,

a big reason why is those younger arms have gotten opportunities to start.

I do like that a lot.

I mean, I've been very low on Michael Walker since we started this post casting last year.

I'm curious to see how he plays in the WBC because I think that he's got a really low

floor, but his ceiling's pretty high.

I mean, I've seen him.

I mean, he'll either give you seven innings of one hit ball or he'll get torched second

time through the order.

It's kind of a hit or miss with Michael Walker.

I do agree.

I think that that's an interesting proposition and it kind of goes back to like was the

Seth Lugo extension, the right move, the time.

I think in terms of the process, I think it was the right move, but now what we've seen

from some of these Royals arms and you guys like Ben Kudirna who are knocking on the door.

I mean, it's going to be interesting to see how the Royals a year from now manage the

pitching staff.

Absolutely.

Yeah, it's a good problem to have where you've got young, controllable depth.

It's what they pride themselves on.

And there's no shame if Seth Lugo and Michael Walker, I know they got contract extensions,

but if you're paying them, you also want them to be in their best role.

And at the end of the year, if their best role is out of the bullpen, that's something

they both had experience with in the past.

Okay, let's each give one more here.

So I'll throw it to you.

Your final hot take of this episode.

I think that from the all star break to the final game of the season, the Royals are

in first place.

I don't think they give up the first place spot.

I think that this is the best team in the central.

I think that and I've talked about this with you.

I think that the floor of their lineup is a lot higher than what Detroit's floor is.

I think that Detroit ceiling is a little bit higher.

But the rotation, I think the Royals, it's basically a wash.

I take the Royals rotation.

I'm not, I'm not shaking in my boots when I see Justin Burland or come out there as

a 44 year old starting pitcher.

I think the Royals have a better rotation in the bullpen.

I think it has a chance to be one of baseball's best.

And I really trust JJ Piccolo when it comes to making additions at the margins.

I don't see any glaring holes in this Royals roster that they're going to have to really

go into August or July and say we've got to fix this.

I think that this is a team that could go 92 and 70 and be the number three or number

two seed in the American League when the postseason rolls around.

I might be alone in that.

I'm not all that scared of Detroit.

I think that lineup has a lot of aggression coming its way.

I mean, we saw it at the tail end of last year when they just collapsed in the last two

months of the season.

I think the Royals are a much more formidable opponent than the Guardians were last year.

And I think the Royals could make some noise when it comes to the trade deadline, when

it comes to just the overall output in the American League.

I think that they're one of the more, I think they're a sleeping giant because I think

they do have the best shortstop in baseball.

I think they have one of the best first baseman in baseball.

I think they have a top five rotation.

I think there are a lot of things that you can get excited about when looking at this

Royals roster from top to bottom.

Yeah, I mean, I would agree with you that they have raised the floor of the lineup,

which is a good thing.

The Tigers are still my team to win the central because I have to see the Royals do it first.

So you have a hot take for a reason, right?

That is a great hot take.

I'm glad you didn't do something lukewarm like I tend to do from time to time.

But I'm going to play off of that that my hot take would be if they are in that position

by the trade deadline, I think they make one of the biggest moves of anybody out there.

I think that that is finally the time because of the last two off seasons where they have

not traded away controlable pieces.

I can see them going out there in really making a splash to get over the finish line because

they're going to have to.

Let's be honest here.

I mean, that's why I'm kind of tying it into my previous one, Lugo and Walker.

Like, if you are to move one of those guys now, I don't think they'd be a part of a splash

deal.

But I'm talking about going all in not just one trade.

I'm talking making a huge splash and adding even more pieces.

So it's not just about making the post season, it's about making the deepest run possible.

Well, chance, thanks so much for joining us.

I know that you have a busy schedule as well.

And this week's going to be a little bit weird for us.

But to get your content, I know the fans have been craving it for a while.

So we'll talk to you next time, man.

Yeah.

Thank you.

All right.

That's going to do it for another edition of Lockdown Royals and the Lockdown Podcast

Network.

If you want to join the Every Day or Club, scroll down below, click on that URL link.

And they're going to be able to take you from there until tomorrow with Joel Penfield.

You take it easy, Kansas City.