Crude Hits $100 Once Again, Markets React to AAPL & TSM Record Revenue

0:00Yeah, let's bring it. Kevin Green, senior markets correspondent right away to help set up the action today. RAKG, we've been weaker on equities for a few days now. It feels like we're in a weight and sea mode right now. What's your take? You don't agree. I mean, we continue to consolidate and you really kind of want to hold some key areas of support. If you're looking at the S&P 500, we've been really trading in a range for the last three weeks, four weeks or so. And we continue to kind of trade through that range. Now what you will see on this 15 minute chart here, this is going to be a one day 15 minute chart yesterday. What happened? We actually obviously started the session on a little bit stronger. And then we started seeing a lot more weakness. Now that orange line is the voluminated average price per session. And so you did see yesterday, it was acting as an area of support to kind of start off the future session. And then we started flipping that and now the voluminated average price was acting as an area of resistance. Look at that same type of action for this morning. We were trading above that voluminated average price, but now we have now broken below it. And that can now act as an area of resistance.

1:01Now if we're able to break above throughout the session, and we're able to really kind of make a higher high in this whole sequence here, that's when you get a little bit more bullish when it comes to this market. You will also notice this drop Diane that we just had around five minutes ago, ten minutes ago, or so. News headlines still hitting the tape when it comes to the conflict in the Middle East. This is going to be outside of Iran. Now we are looking at the Bab Elman dab. We're talking about Yemen. It does appear from news reports that the hootie forces have actually taken and seized a really key port for when it comes to Yemen, expanding their overall influence within the Bab Elman dab, which could also then constrain some of the shipping supplies back and forth. And we know that they have been going back and forth with Saudi Arabia. We did see Saudi Arabia strike some of the hootie forces overnight in its team to like once again, that tip for Tadd is kind of expanding here. Now the reason why I kind of bring that up. We've been focusing on the straight of our moves. Yes, it's kind of a stalemate in that particular part of the region so far. But now it seems like the oil market is really kind of focusing on that other straight

2:03of Bab Elman dab. And that could be a big driver for equity valuations and prices for today and something to keep your eye on. Okay, great call out there and great catch there because you're right earlier. We were starting to see futures take higher. But great pointing out the reason behind what we're seeing in this pull back now. No prices still elevated or above 102 for Brent crude. We're approaching 100 for WTI. What are you watching on this front? Well, a couple of things that are taking place right now. If you're looking at the spread between Brent crude and WTI and it is starting to narrow a little bit more, that just kind of signifies. It's one of those indicators that signifies that obviously, intentions are rising and demand for American oil could actually rise here. Now what also is very interesting and I'll check the prices again. But early on this morning, we did see crude oil up about one and a half, almost 2%. But diesel or heating oil, if you will, was actually not making a move. Now we are seeing heating oil up about 1%.

3:04But crude oil itself, if you're looking at WTI is up 3%. This is a little bit of a change in a shift in dynamics where the byproducts, especially when you're looking at diesel, was actually outpacing or had a higher beta than the input crude oil. Today, that's a little bit more flipped. And that's where you start seeing those cracks breads. So diesel cracks beds are the 3 to 1 cracks breads. This does last for a fairly long time. It's start to actually move to the downside and that's because the input of crude oil is actually moving higher in price or quicker in price to the upside than the byproduct. So an interesting dynamic to note, maybe this is just a one day thing. But if you do see that kind of shift, once again, cracks breads go lower, but that also means crude oil could actually have a little bit more room to the upside here. I'm still looking at that 105 level for WTI as a major area of resistance. And I feel like this is still a zone where you could have maybe some influence from the administration to try to knock prices down. But if we see this kind of expanding throughout the Middle East, especially the Babelman dad, which is still seeing ships transit, the only ones that have really been hit are early Saudi ships.

4:05But if we start seeing the Houthis really targeting other country ships, that's where it becomes. I'm even a bigger issue for this overall conflict and where inflation could be a little bit more resilient and harder to tame by the Fed. Okay, let's talk about some individual names on your radar. Let's get to Apple. We'll share this moving a little bit higher in the pre-market here off their hives of the session, but it follows their surprise and shine event where most of the lot of surprises in terms of expectations since so much of this as you pointed out yesterday was leaked ahead of time. But they've got a foldable phone coming. Seems like it's better than expected. What's your overall assessment of the price at action and the event? Yeah, we will see. I mean, if you look at some of the competitors within the foldable market space, we really have not seen a major uptake when it comes to demand. Samsung is actually a really good example where they did roll out a foldable phone in December and then they discontinued it. They also have some Chinese competitors that do command a significant amount of the market. But at the end of the day, not really a profitable type of product.

5:06It seems like Apple is really trying to maybe bring a new dynamic within this space by announcing the iPhone Duo. Now, this is going to actually start at $2,000 and this will also start to be available on October 23rd. Now, this is going to be powered by the new 820 Pro chip and they also are utilizing their new in-house CT modem chips kind of moving away from Qualcomm. There were some other announcements as well, some new budget airpods that are going to be rolling out. They're going to start off at $129 and then the iPhone 18 Pro as well as the Pro Max getting some upgrades and then raising those prices up by $100 as well. That's higher than the models that were rolled out last year. Everything was pretty much leaked to the street, if you will. It's usually a buy-the-room or sell-in news event. That's exactly what we saw yesterday. We are seeing maybe some buyers try to step in. It's up about $2 from yesterday as close here. But nothing that was really out of the ordinary when it came to this event, it seems like everything was kind of par for the course, especially for traders' expectation. Okay. Par for the course there.

6:06Sok Ty won, Sammy. They're out with their usual cadence of monthly revenue figures. Looks like great numbers. This stock not really reacting to that. Walk us through the details here. Yeah, this might be that in video effect, if you will, Diane. As you continue to have major beats, the upside when it comes to these revenue numbers, maybe the market is not as surprised for those beats. We did see the company report the dollar equivalent of $16.35 billion for the month of August. That revenue was up 53.3% on a year-over-year basis, and up 10% on a month-over-month basis. Once again, they continue to command the market. They dominate around 72.5% of the overall market share when it comes to global foundry. We are seeing the company make some announcements over the last couple of weeks, and even months for that matter, that they are trying to double down, spend a little bit more on CAPEX and infrastructure to build out some of these advanced foundry type of tools in order to scale and make it a little bit cheaper in order to process a lot of these chips and then

7:08also meet demand. Once again, really good numbers when you're looking at the revenue growth here, but the market might be used to some of these outsized beats. All right. And let's talk through the levels you're paying attention to on the S&P 500 for today. What do flows look like to the upside and downside? Yeah, to the upside, $76.85 to the downside, $7,600. We're applying a little bit over, actually, a 1.05% move to the upside or downside, which we're looking at the VIX implied move. Let's say keep your eye out on the communication services sector, meta hitting a key area of resistance at that $660 level and Google trading at a 200 day moving average communication services does look a little bit more primed to try to move a little bit higher here over the next couple of weeks, Diane, and that could be that flight to safety or that hedge against inflationary risk as we will get PPI today. So keep your eye out on the communication services sector. It's going to be very interesting to know. All right. Thank you, KG. That's Kevin Green, our Senior Markets correspondent. Appreciate that set up for today. And I'll let's.