Daily Episode 128 - Unexpected and Unknown Effects of Climate Change

Hey, Corey here.

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Every day on this podcast, we talk about a new piece of research or news or event or

whatever it might be that's come out regarding collapse.

And it's interesting to note that there are so many areas to pay attention to and to watch.

So many things that are constantly changing on a daily or weekly basis that I never run

out of material.

I've never once sat down to record an episode and just been like, you know what, there's

nothing to talk about today.

And I'm sure that will be the way for the foreseeable future.

One thing that's interesting about that to me is that the things that we typically

talk about when we're looking at research, they are things that are expected to happen.

And therefore we are doing the research about them.

They are elements and parts of climate models, for example, expectations that we have that

may be changing or increasing faster and the research is giving us more information on

those items.

But one piece that is frightening to me is that there are going to be elements of climate

change and other aspects of collapse that we aren't expecting.

There will likely be many reactions to a failing, you know, ecosystem biodiversity, things

that really can't be accounted for in the models.

And today I want to highlight a couple of articles that talk about surprising results or unexpected

things that have popped up in research recently that may have a massive effect on the future

that is not accounted for.

So one example of those, there was an article in Fizz.org, which is titled Antarctic Warming

is Altering Atmospheric Stability.

New evidence from the 1950s to the present.

It says a new study published in the Journal of Climate Reveals House Surface Warming in

Antarctica, particularly over the Antarctic Peninsula, is significantly altering the stability

of the lowest layers of the atmosphere by analyzing changes from the 1950s to the present.

Researchers observed a progressive decrease in near-surface atmospheric stability.

This reduced stability favors the generation of atmospheric gravity waves from the Antarctic

Peninsula, one of the main natural factories of these waves which play a crucial role in

the dynamics of Earth's climate system.

So that's a lot of words, but it's basically saying that warming in Antarctica makes changes

in the atmosphere, and those changes in the atmosphere can make changes to weather patterns

all over the world.

It says the study provides a physical explanation for this increase, identified in a shift in

atmospheric flow regimes that makes the Antarctic Peninsula even more efficient at producing

waves.

The results are based on a comprehensive set of data from meteorological stations, reanalysis

products, satellite observations, and model simulations, all which show a coherent increase

in gravity wave activity.

As gravity waves influence the strength of the polar vortex, contribute to processes linked

to ozone depletion, and affect mid-latitude weather patterns.

Changes in their frequency and intensity can therefore have far-reaching consequences

for atmospheric circulation on a global scale.

Gravity waves play a key role in shaping atmospheric circulation, and increase in their

activity may contribute to profound changes in the dynamics of Earth's climate system.

It ends by saying the study highlights that surface warming does not remain confined to

the ground.

It generates signals that propagate upward into the stratosphere and beyond, reshaping

global atmospheric circulation.

It also shows how localized changes such as warming over the Antarctic Peninsula can

trigger a chain of effects capable of propagating on a planetary scale, once again underscoring

the vulnerability and interconnectedness of Earth's climate system.

So applying this to what I kind of mentioned at the beginning of the episode, there's

this interconnectedness which means that things are going to happen that we're not expecting.

Nobody is really talking about how warming in the Antarctic would increase gravity waves,

which would change the temperature, mid-latitudes.

I don't know that people were talking about warming in the Antarctic, being expected

to increase ozone depletion, for example.

Like I mentioned in yesterday's episode, that's partially because we weren't expecting

warming in the Antarctic, excuse me, to happen this quickly.

This is a relatively recent development over the last several years, and so it's no

surprise that this research is just coming out now, and more research will have to be

done to really determine, you know, put this into the models and see how is this going

to affect things like weather.

I think this goes without saying, but I'll mention it anyway.

Obviously, the more of these types of things that happen and that upset the normal weather

patterns, I think this is just going to create a continued, wild swinging and chaos back

and forth between weather types through much of what we now consider, you know, stable

weather patterns and climate patterns throughout the world.

If a place which is, you know, used to a stable climate and able to grow agriculture and

specific crops because temperatures stay relatively the same are now having wild swings

in those temperatures, or even if it just means that winters are lasting longer, or not

as long, or starting sooner, or hail storms are more frequent, or rain is less frequent.

Whatever it might be, it disrupts those agricultural patterns.

We're already witnessing those disruptions happening for many different reasons due to climate

change, and these discoveries just enhance and support that it's going to get that much

more extreme, unexpected, and have those adverse effects.

This one I find very interesting, despite the fact that it's not necessarily caused by

climate change, but it does cause climate changes.

This is from science advances, it's on science.org, it says, vulcanism induced collapse and recovery

of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under glacial conditions.

And the abstract here basically is saying that volcanic eruptions have considerable impacts

on climate across various time scales, it remains uncertain if and how volcanic activity

could drive climate change over multiple millennia.

Here we incorporate realistic volcanic forcing into a large ensemble of glacial air coupled

atmosphere ocean model simulations.

Basically what they found was that very large and equatorial eruptions can induce large

changes in the AMOC, potentially pushing the climate system between persistent warm and

cold states lasting millennia.

They say that, quote, and this is a summary that I actually found in the last week in

collapse, a subreddit, a sub-sac that puts together different stories from the week, says,

they say that the role of large volcano eruptions may be understated in modifying global water

circulation patterns, potentially forcing changes that could last thousands of years.

And it makes me wonder, we know that as ice melts, for example, in Antarctica, it changes

the amount of weight because all of that ice and all of that water weighs down on the

land masses in those parts.

As that ice melts and that water is distributed evenly over the planet, it can disrupt plates,

it can disrupt tectonics.

I wouldn't be all that surprised to find that we have an increase in volcanic activity

in the coming decades.

And now showing that that can have a major impact on the AMOC and other weather patterns.

Another article in the ecologist.org talks about Brazil's growing water crisis.

Scientists warn Brazil is entering a hidden water crisis with global consequences.

I'm bringing this article up again because while we know, and it's not a surprise, that

Brazil is in a water crisis, as are many places around the world, they have found through

the research that the patterns in rivers have become less predictable.

And it is again, this lack of predictability that is what's frightening, says Brazil's

water system depends on a delicate partnership between the Amazon rainforest and the Serrato.

Together they form a vast hydrological network that moves moisture through the atmosphere,

stores groundwater and stabilizes river basins across much of South America.

Foreign security in Brazil isn't just about declining rainfall.

Researchers describe it as the weakening of natural climate regulation processes a gradual

shift with potentially far-reaching consequences.

Research from the University of Sao Paulo estimates that the Amazon's deforestation accounts

for roughly 74.5% of rainfall reduction and 16.5% temperature increased during the dry season.

The Amazon plays a central role in South America's water cycle, trees draw moisture from the

soil and release it into the atmosphere, generating currents of human air often described

as flying rivers, or atmospheric rivers.

These invisible air currents carry rainfall far beyond the forest, sustaining agricultural

regions, reservoirs, and major urban centers.

For many Brazilians, these atmospheric water currents are invisible, but they're effects

shape when crops grow, reservoirs refill, and weather rivers remain navigable.

According to Brazil's National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency, on the 30th of January,

the canter error system was reportedly to be operating at 22%.

As forests shrink, scientists warn that this moisture recycling process weakens.

Reduced tree cover means less moisture in the air.

Rainfall becomes more erratic, and river flows grow increasingly unstable.

Some regions face prolonged drought while others experience intense rainfall over shorter

periods.

Researchers say these extremes aren't isolated anomalies, but signs of mounting ecological

stress.

Water soil reduces groundwater recharge while rivers respond more sharply to both drought

and heavy rainfall.

Large-scale climate events such as El Nino, Leninia, and warm conditions in the North Tropical

Atlantic only add to the strain triggering floods or droughts that cascade through river

systems and aquifers.

So again, this increase in the pressure that comes from all of these different elements

is causing a worsening condition, which is increasing the unpredictability of river flows.

Those which pretty much all of Brazil depend on for their fresh water.

On that note, there was an article that talks about how some research was done in 2023

in the Amazon, and they actually discovered that during that year, the Amazon turned

from a carbon sink into a weak carbon source.

It officially flipped that year.

Don't know if that's continuing.

That was a drought year, but there's always been this worry about the Amazon switching

from a carbon sink to a carbon source.

As a sink, it was taking in net carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, therefore decreasing

global warming.

As a source, it is emitting more carbon dioxide than it is bringing in, of course, worsening

global warming.

This is a really long research paper.

I'll link to it so you can read through it, but I bring it up because it relates heavily

to what we just talked about with Brazil's rivers that are growing water crisis.

As the Amazon continues to be deforested, as drought plagues it, as fires continue to

burn it, as agriculture replaces natural forest areas, that is less and less water that

feeds into these atmospheric river streams, meaning that there is less rainfall.

The sub-enification of the Amazon forest is one of the, I think, worst tipping points

that we will experience in the coming decades, and it may be closer than we expect.

Do you have any other examples of things like this that you've thought of?

New research perhaps, or maybe it's just ideas that you've had about things that are

unexpected, or at least underappreciated, not talked about, but that we will experience

as the climate continues to change.

Feel free to reach out to me, let me know, submit articles, and things like that.

I'm happy to share them here.

All right.

Bye.

Hey, Corey here.

If you are listening to the back catalog of Breaking Down Collapse, thank you, those episodes

are so vital, they're so important, but I also wanted to let you know that I am now

doing daily episodes.

Yes, that's right.

Here on the podcast, daily episodes.

So if you are enjoying the back catalog, great, please also feel free to zoom forward to

the most recent episodes, catch us daily, they are quick little episodes, and I think

you'll enjoy them.

Thanks.