Data Suggests The Bull Market Is Just Beginning

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To investors,

There is no better feeling than a bull market.

Your portfolio is going higher day after day. The media is falling over themselves in excitement. Social media is lit on fire with people taking screenshots of their net worth. Bears are screeching a big crash is right around the corner. And your barber, taxi driver, and neighbor are all pitching you their latest stock pick.

Straight pandemonium. Bull markets sure are fun.

And that is exactly where we are right now. Stocks, bitcoin, gold, and nearly every other asset continue surging to new all-time highs throughout 2025. But just how good is this bull market? How does it compare to past markets?

3Fourteen’s Warren Pies writes:

“How does the [current] rally compare to history? It is the fourth strongest rally versus all other bull markets. Only 1982, 2009, and 2020 were greater. It is the STRONGEST recovery excluding recessionary cases. At 116 days without a 6% pullback, the rally has gone farther than all but two early-stage bull [markets] (1966 & 1957).”

This data confirms what we are all feeling…the current bull market is very rare. The tariff fears earlier this year created an artificial suppression of stocks, which laid the groundwork for the historic market recovery we are now witnessing.

There are many people arguing the recent price appreciation is unsustainable. They’ll point to numerous data points suggesting stocks are overvalued. You will hear them say a reversion to the mean is essentially guaranteed.

But what if they are wrong? What if the exact opposite is true?

I want to challenge each of you to ask yourself, what does the future look like if the bull market is just beginning? What if everything goes right for investors?

These questions are not rooted in some fantasy world though. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick shows “Q4 is the best quarter of the year historically and it isn’t even really close.”

The last quarter of the year has an average return that is nearly twice as strong as any other quarter of the year. Ryan goes on to explain that Q4 has a positive return 14 out of the last 15 times that the S&P 500 was up 10% or more going into the final 3 months of the year.

Still not convinced? Well, we can see 2025 is following a similar path to 1999. Revere Asset Management’s Connor Bates shows it perfectly in this chart comparing the 1996 - 2001 timeframe with 2023 to present day:

I doubt I have 20/20 vision, but those two markets look visually similar to me. Given the trend, this comparison would suggest there is still significant appreciation left in this bull market under the 1999 repeat market scenario.

And remember, all of this analysis and stock market performance is happening with the backdrop of the Fed’s recent interest rate cuts. The US central bank is reducing the cost of capital at the same time that stocks are hitting all-time highs. That development is hardly bearish and instead suggests equities will keep setting new record highs through the end of the year.

That will be great for equity investors, but there is another asset that is sounding an alarm bell that can’t be ignored. That asset is gold.

Mike Zaccardi shows central banks globally have been buying up gold in droves:

This is just an insane amount of demand for the precious metal. Analyst Marko Papic highlights this central bank activity is about to help gold flip US treasuries as the most popular reserve asset around the world.

This milestone has seemed impossible for more than 25 years. The sound money regime was dominant until 1971. We watched the explosion of fiat happen as soon as the US went off the gold standard and it seemed like sound money would be a forgotten foot note of history. But now we are seeing a return to sound money properties through gold and bitcoin.

The team at Blokland shows gold’s dominance priced in US treasuries. The trend is clear and the reasoning could not be more obvious.

Simply, central banks have abused the opportunity given to them by citizens. They printed too much money. They destroyed the purchasing power of the people. Citizens are choosing to vote with their dollars and move from fiat-based assets into sound money assets. These same citizens are also using stocks as a way to benefit from the insane currency debasement happening across markets.

Stocks, gold, and bitcoin. Those three assets will allow you to benefit from the ridiculous, undisciplined behavior coming from central banks. Buy them and chill.

They are all going higher. The bull market is not over because cheap money is coming and the world needs new technology to navigate the next two decades. I hope that each of you is able to ignore the bears. Don’t get sucked into their intellectual nonsense. They are wrong. They don’t understand the market or the economy. These individuals are stuck in the past.

The optimists are going to win. Quite literally, I am betting my portfolio on it.

Have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Jordi Visser Explains Why Bitcoin & Artificial Intelligence Will Drive The Bull Market

Jordi Visser (‪@JordiVisserLabs‬) is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation we discuss bitcoin outlook for rest of the year, interest rate cuts, how to evaluate AI acceleration, Nvidia’s $100 billion deal with OpenAI, and what metrics investors should keep an eye on.

Enjoy!

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