Debate: Is a Hike Coming? 9/16/26

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1:05You record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Half-Time Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Under Front and Center, this hour, the markets and the Fed decision. A stocks price in a rate hike. We will discuss and debate with the committee. See how they're playing things right now no matter what happens. Joining me for the hour. Joe Tarrinova, Jenny Harrington, Jim Lavinthal, and Steve Weiss. We'll take you to the market. Show you what we're doing. We're 12 noon in the east today, and we are wait and see. I think it's fair to say NASDAQ's leading. There's the 10-year note. It is the yield is down below 5%. But it is right about there. We'll go to the group. Joe, I'll start with you first. The last hike was July 26th of 23. We got the 10-year where it is. Mortgage rates are above 7.2. The highest since January of 25. 93% chance of a hike. They're going to go? Oh, yeah. I think they are going to go. I think the market's clearly positioned for it.

2:05If you look at the bond market, there's been extensive short positioning that's been established here. Over the last several weeks, JP Morgan put a report out to that effect. CFTC, commitment of traders report shows that as well. And then the consumer discretionary, Scott, they are really trading awful right now. You have 38 out of the 47 consumer discretionary S&P stocks that are actually underperforming the S&P. 25% of that entire sector is near a 52-week low. So I think without question they're going today and my point on the bond market and consumer discretionary is I think the market's position for it. And therefore I think it'll accept rather comfortably the rate hike. What if weist the markets wrong? What happens if they don't go? You know, it's not funny you ask that. I'm not surprised with the question. I've been thinking about that a lot since yesterday where everybody thinks it's a fate of complete. Me too.

3:05And I don't know what happens and what I would expect happens is the market always tends to be optimistic or usually does. The market rips and they say, you know what? What the Fed does doesn't really matter. Look, we talked down in the show the other day and said it's a supply shock that's driving inflation. I wouldn't say entirely due to oil, but that's a big part of it. And the Fed just can't counter supply shocks. Not with 25 base points anyway. So I would think the market takes off and takes comfort in the fact that wars. And I don't believe this will damage or kill his credibility because it depends what happens in the press conference to 30. But I believe that's what will happen. I don't see the mark going down. I also see the 10 year declining in yield. So that's a little probability. I actually took off a little bit of my hedges just because in case I'm wrong because I do believe like Joe that the market already absorbed 25 base point cut.

4:06And probably another 25 because they don't do, sorry, hi, thanks you. Because they just don't do one hike or one cut at a time. So it'll be very interesting to hear what he has to say. But it's all going to come down to the language in the press conference afterwards. Yeah, Jim, I know the market is where it is. And I didn't ask that question of why is by accident. Because part of me says why would they hike? The things that are causing the biggest part of the inflation issue right now they can't do anything about. And who's decided that they have a credibility problem other than the pundits who listen to what Worsh has said and said, well, how can he say that without hiking? He has to hike to save his own credibility. I don't know whether he believes that. I don't know whether the open market committee believes that. I don't know if they really think they need to before they hear from the task forces. So I'm not sure that it's so much a foregone conclusion.

5:08I think our viewers want to know what's the market going to do either way. Yeah, okay. So I do think they're going to hike. And the reason I think that two reasons. One, I listen to the full Jackson Hole speech. And if you just take those words at face value, there was a very distinct logic that he flowed through. Inflation is too high. The Fed is responsible for inflation. The Fed's main tool as interest rates. I mean, there was more to it than that. But the logic to me clearly indicates that based on last week's inflation numbers, they have to go. There's another reason why. And I think you and Steve, what you just said about supply shocks, totally agree. We should not be hiking to cure a supply shock. But there's another reason that interest rates have gone higher and that the Fed may hike. And that's simply that economic activity is pretty strong. And that could be an indication of why inflation is up or at least a contributor. And yes, I'm speaking about the data center buildouts. That's a reason why copper and steel prices are high.

6:09So that's a radiosenation of why they may hike. I will tell you my belief is that if they do the 25 basis point hike, that you will see downward pressure on 10 year yields. By extension, if they don't hike, I think yields are going to spike and crater the equity markets with it. Obviously I'm predicting the future and I cannot guarantee those are the outcomes. But I feel pretty strongly in those opinions I just gave. I don't remember a time Jenny where we feel so uncertain about. Even with a probability over 90. Really what's going to happen and then really how the markets are going to react. Whether bond yields go up if they hike, whether they come down in relief. The bond vigilantes get off the hot seat. How do you see things transpiring no matter what they do in a couple hours? Well, I think it's I'm actually a combination of Jim and Steve. I think that if they don't hike, I'm in the gym camp of what the market reacts by. Because I think to me at least as an investor that would be a messaging like holy smokes. The Fed knows something, the government knows something really bad.

7:11That the rest of us don't know. I would not take it as a positive where I'm in the Steve campus. I think that absolutely the thing that matters most is the language following. So I put those two together and then to your point earlier Scott. You can easily ask the question does it really matter? Does it even influence yields? And the answer to that's no. And something that I've really been fixated on and struck by right now is thinking back to when the cuts started. So the cuts started two years ago. Almost on the nose we've had seven cuts, 1.75%. And in that time, the 10 year has gone from the 10 year US treasure has gone from 3.73% to 5%. So that brings up the do you really need to hike? Do you need to cut? Does it make any real difference on the interest rates that do matter? But then there is the credibility thing. And there is the statement that it makes. And I think when you're looking at the US market pricing in a 93% chance of a hike, you just kind of have to do that. And Worsh has to show us all that he is not a muppet. And that he's looking at economic data and trying his best.

8:12So I think he's in a corner with needing to hike. I think he does in the market cracks up. I was down the coast a little bit and Huntington Beach yesterday obviously at Future Proof. And we interviewed Rick Reader on this program 24 hours ago. And he, like all of you said, yeah, they're probably going to hike. He said he wouldn't listen. I wouldn't because I think there's not going to really do much. I mean, talk about moving the funds rate 25 basis points. Are you really going to do anything for inflation? What's driving inflation that is interest rate insensitive? Obviously you've got war, you've got energy, price, you've got education, insurance, cost, health care. It doesn't really do much. So what I do it, what it does adversely impact. Look at the housing market that's frozen. Okay, so that's Rick Reader. Now let's bring in our senior economic reporter Steve Leesman. It's going to be in the room of asking the chair a question. That's a man who might have been fed chair. He was close, obviously. He said he wouldn't.

9:12Why should wash? Well, there's a lot of reasons. I think a lot of them were said at the table there. You look at the inflation rate. It's been over 2% for quite a while. And the Fed chair has talked tough about inflation and needs to put his action where his words are. The other reasons are that you have these surging oil prices now, including diesel prices, Scott. It may end up, it may already not be just an energy story. If you look at down into the guts of these reports, it's not just energy that's driving inflation. Now there are other factors. And when diesel starts working its way into the economy, it could be more inflation to come. I think that's one of the things the Fed is looking at. And I think finally the issue of the Fed does have a role to play here in supply shocks. And if you look at the way the Fed responded in the 70s, this is from Neil Kashkari's descent when he wanted to raise a quarter. He said, look back. The Fed had surging oil prices at a series of supply shocks.

10:12And Scott, we've had a series of supply shocks. And you can look through one, you can look through both. But honestly, when you look at the policies of the Trump administration, can you say that any of these things are truly one-off? And that's the problem as you can. Are you sympathetic at all to the view of Rick Reader, who, as we both know, might have been sitting in that chair making the same kinds of decisions that chair wars in the committee are making today. I am. And I think that what Rick might have said in his next sentence there was, a quarter point hike won't do any good, but several quarter point hikes, or at least the suggestion that there's more to come might. And that's sort of, I think, getting into a Jenny and Steve we're both talking about, which is this idea, a quarter point hike ain't nothing. And if you're really going to have an effect on the long end of the bond market, I'm listening for the word series campaign. Some kind of sense that it's more than just a one off. Well, one off is probably going to be what I'm calling Scott one and mom, because we're not going to get the guidance from the Fed chair that the market wants.

11:18But I think he's going to need the market to be higher and to curtail what aggregate demand it can in the face of this supply shock to get inflation down. I think the more he deals with this now, the easier it's going to be compared to dealing with it later. One and mom, that's clever. I like that. We'll see if it turns out to be just that. I just wonder, why would you hike more than one time irrespective of what central banks normally do? If they simply need to preserve their credibility, they can do that theoretically by at least hiking once. But we don't really have an overheating economy that needs to be slowed. The things that are hot are not affected really by what the Fed can do at this point. Well, first of all, Scott, I wouldn't overstate the credibility issue. I don't think Kevin Worshan, the Fed, are going to hike today simply because of credibility. I think credibility is a marginal issue that if it's a close call, I think that plays a role.

12:20But I don't think it's the central reason why you hike. I think the Fed has an awful lot of credibility. You can see that in reasonably contained inflation expectations. When you look at the five-year, five-year forwards in the tips market, that's a cue to the guys in the back. I have a chart on that. It is elevated. Look how good they are. It's elevated relative to where it's been since July. But it has been higher. It's been a feature of, say, this year to date period we've had. Since December, it has been higher. But look, the reason why that's contained is because the Fed has credibility. And Kevin Worshan is able to draw on the credibility of the Powell Fed. And now he's got to establish his own credibility. And that will keep inflation expectations contained. That's going to be so interesting. I just don't remember a time where I feel like it's still reasonably uncertain, even though the market's at 90 plus percent. And we look forward to your question. I just had one thing, Scott, which is this is a chair who has told us he's looking to the market for signals.

13:22I don't believe the market signal could be any more clear, not the 90 percent, but also look at the two-year running over a hundred basis points higher than the Fed funds. The markets telling the Fed, share something. We'll see you later. And I look forward to speaking with you after the news conference ends. That's our Steve Leesman. All right, guys, Joe, what do you make of the Leesman logic? Let's say we get a one-in-mum. I love the way he put that. What do you think the market takes from it? So in 2015, December of 2015, that's exactly what Janet Yellen embarked upon. She had a rate hike in December of 2015, and then over the next 12 months, just kind of sat on the sideline to see what the data would do. I think the best thing that could happen today is that Steve's thesis plays out. I agree with Rick Reeder, and what was stated previously, I don't understand why we're raising rates, but the market's saying we're going to go do it. Let's go do it. And if yields fall, they raise rates, and yields fall. Well, if we're listening to the market, then the market is telling the Federal Reserve and speculators.

14:30They are comfortable with one rate hike, and it's not necessary to embark on a rate hiking cycle. Jenny, Jeremy Siegel says market will shutter. This is if they hike. Market will shutter, then recover. He says wobble, then climb. I've got Ed Yardini out cutting his S&P target, not necessarily directly related to the Fed, although it is a bit related to the backup and bond yield. He cuts his estimates for the forward PE of the S&P, so he's looking at a multiple contraction in some respects. He says $7,900 from $8,400 is his new number. That makes sense. The shutter and recover doesn't. We've also heard wobble and climb. Here's how I've been thinking about it. I've been thinking about it that it's going to yonder. That does sync up a bit with Yardini, where he's cut his estimate. If we think about what the market's done for the past three months, it's just wandered.

15:30It was at $7,600 on June 2nd. We're right about at $7,600 on the S&P now. And I really believe that this is all about earnings. And I think until we hear earnings that start to come out in a month and change from now, it's just going to wander. So even with one rate hike, that doesn't really matter. And to the conversation we've all been having, it's digested. It's in there. So why should we shutter? Why should we wobble? I don't think we're going to. I think we're just going to wander around until those earnings releases come. And even the numbers on earnings, I don't think that's going to be what's so important. It's going to be the projections. And the outlooks. And what people say. And I think that's when we start to get real movement. And that's when we move out of this kind of $7,600 band on the S&P that we've been stuck in. So Yarn and Wander, how about that? I came up with my own. All right, I'll put that on the list with with leesmans. That's pretty good too. You make it towards the high, the top of the list. Maybe not at the very top because I like leesmans a little bit better. No disrespect, but we'll we'll keep you right there. I promise in terms of what Steve sectors could could move the most on a hike.

16:33If in fact that is what happens, be a base as banks are going to get a boost. EPS and margin outlooks should receive a modest boost. They say from rate hikes, given that most banks remain asset sensitive, a flattening yield curve could challenge bank stock performance. So, you know, maybe they get a steeper yield curve. That's good for the banks. They liked what JP Morgan had to say at the conferences this week, city group as well. What do you think here is you have some ownership in the space? I do have ownership, my own ships and goldmen. If you take a goldman just as a perform that well. And I attribute that really to talk of delaying IPOs and slow down in the AI spending. But yes, as you get a steeper yield curve, you will see the banks benefit as well as the insurance companies that make a lot of their money off of their assets, policy holders, deposits and payments. But here's the thing, if I'm right that you get the hike yet yields come down. I don't think they're going to go higher on the hike.

17:44Again, depending on what's said, then you just don't know what's going to happen with the bank. So the real money, the real yields, the real rates, which are the yield, the treasury curve. Yes, that'll benefit. But overall, and again, I think this is day to day. You can count on a long-term impact into the market from what the Fed says or does. Because you've got so many other data points. You've got what's happening in the Middle East primarily there. And then earnings, I think, rate hikes will hit earnings because the earnings right now are mostly in financials. That'll be good. And in the AI names. But that's going to be it. The rest of the companies, that's generalization, will suffer from it. So, and that may affect their appetite for lending from the banks. So it's really a mixed bag. As you point out, multiple times, this is the most confusing set hike that I recall living through.

18:45Yeah, because I don't think anything is going to surprise me later this afternoon, no matter what they do. I could see both sides of the debate. We'll just have to wait and see. We're watching tech, obviously, today. Long duration assets are going to be watched closely, depending on what yields do as a result of whatever the Fed does. Interesting in the last 24 hours. Jensen Wong of Nvidia was with Jim Kramer. He said, Anthropics proposal for AI safety anti trust waiver completely unnecessary. Don't need any new laws have plenty of laws have plenty of regulations. Then Mark Zuckerberg. He weighed in on the safety debate as well. And Julia Borsden is here on set with me with a little bit more on that. It's nice to be in your neighborhood. It's great to have you on set. Zuckerberg's now weighed in. Tell us more. Now shares of meta are higher after Zuckerberg came out in opposition to Anthropics Dario, Amodane Open AI Sam Altman's call for a slowdown of frontier models as well as regulation.

19:46Instead, Zuckerberg says companies should effectively self-regulate saying they're incentivized to prevent AI problems due to their legal liabilities and that aligning models with people's needs as a competitive advantage. Zuckerberg writing quote, my view is that trust and alignment are quickly becoming the most important capabilities that will differentiate agents and models. Now meta shares are outpacing the market today and there are about 18% just in September this morning city reiterating its buy rating on the stock. Signing the company's product cadence ramping and saying its AI roadmap is becoming clear part of that yesterday meta launched AI subscription tools and next week, Admetis Annual Development Conference will hear more about Mark Zuckerberg's ambitious strategy to own the mass market AI experience. Scott. This stocks had a nice rebirth if you will. It's up 15% by the way in the last 30 days. Are you surprised at all by Zuckerberg's take here? I think it very much aligns to use that word that we've heard so much about with his strategy to really own his ecosystem.

20:50What we saw with the mobile experience is that Zuckerberg and all of his apps were at the whim of the app store owners and the product makers and here he says we want to we want to own everything. Part of that is he's saying we're going to open source open weight some of our models and he has always argued that it's not that AI you have to be afraid of. It's that you have to be afraid of AI's concentration and just a couple players. So what he said very much flows from his strategy of trying to do everything for everyone when it comes to the AI consumer experience and the fact that he's aligning with Johnson Wong and not with these other guys who are his rivals says a lot about his ambitions right now. Yeah, all right. Good stuff. Julia. Thanks. Thanks for joining us. That's Julia Borscht and Jenny. You own the stock. What's your take as I said stock speaks for itself. It's up 15% in the last 30 days now. Zuck's weighed in as well in this in this debate that we've been having. Yeah, so with respect to Zuckerberg weighing in on the on the safety debate like that part doesn't have any impact on my investment thesis. The investment thesis part is still the same, which is it's huge free cash flow generative.

21:53The earnings growth is significant and you know, they've gotten out of out from under things like there was the use safety issue that put kind of maybe a wet rag on them for a while. So they're out from these. I think I think Zuck weighing in is interesting in the bigger context yesterday. I read an article by Shyam Sankar who's the CTO of Palantir and he's weighing in on the ideology behind these AI warnings. So I'm trying to think of it, you know, where do I come out on it and where I come out on it both a human and an investor is I don't know. You know, I don't know yet where it ends up is it amazing for humanity is it terrible for humanity and the big question needs to keep being from all of us. Why like why are you telling us it's dangerous, but you're still building hand over fist. Why are you moving so fast? I don't know that there's an actual answer that can be that can be attained right now because we're in this wild period in time where everything's unprecedented and it's changing and it's changing on a daily basis and it's moving faster than even even those who are building it Daria and Sam and Elon even faster than they ever anticipated.

22:58So I don't know, but the bottom line is from an investment perspective. Mark Zuckerberg coming in on this. It's like of course he has to. You know, Mark Zuckerberg is the only one that still has the founders mentality. So founders typically are great at seeing the future and building to accommodate that versus the others that are running these and I'm only talking about the public companies. I'm talking about Amazon. I'm talking about Alphabet and Microsoft. They're the second generation. They're professional managers that came in. So that's why I've said Zuckerberg will be the best at navigating the AI trends now in terms of of the safety implications is slowing down. Keep in mind everybody's got a bias in this. So they've got Jensen Wong who makes you know the leading manufacturer of chips. Right. So he's obviously got a bias. I'm not saying it's a dishonest bias, but you got to take all that with the grain of salt. But guess what? Just like we don't want to slow down the US from developing from loose competitive edge versus China. None of the AI company spending public or private want to slow down and lose the edge.

24:09So disregard what they're saying. They're all advancing. Yep. All right. We'll take a break coming up next sports broadcasting icon. Al Michaels. He joins us live ahead of Amazon Prime's fit season of Thursday night football kicks off tomorrow evening. We're back in two minutes. September's always busy. Whole Foods market can help their September stock up event makes it easy to load your pantry and freezer with flavorful nourishing food. There are hundreds of sales get dinner going with canned soups and veggies lean on frozen pizzas pastas and seafood everyone loves their build your own family meals feeds for for just $35 stock up at whole foods market. Adventure global we think about what can be done. Not what's usually done through innovation venture global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States. But delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking we're busy building that's venture global.

25:20That's unstoppable energy. With the discovered cashback card it's payback time when you earn cash back on everyday purchases activate and earn 5% cash back at different categories each quarter on up to $1,500 in purchases. That's 5% cashback at different places each quarter like grocery stores on gas and at restaurants it pays to discover terms applying see discovered dot com slash five for details. Tomorrow kicks off Amazon Prime's fifth season of Thursday night football should be a great game too is the bills open their new stadium against the Detroit Lions. Michael's will be on the call joins us now live good to have you as always though it feels weird I'm on your coast and you're on mine what's up with that your channel me but this is a treat for me because we've done this every year I can't believe it's been five years now since we started this package and a beauty to start with tomorrow night as you know Scott brand new stadium two teams that the escape last week with with victories the last time they met it was 48 44.

26:43So anticipate we're going to have that same type of a game tomorrow night at the over we're coming off the most watch Thursday night football season ever and it feels like forever ago when people were saying that the Thursday night slate of games wasn't all that good now it's like every game is good somebody got the message and now it truly has become must see as I said the rating speak for themselves out. Yeah I mean the league did us a solid after that first year kind of you know testing the waters me you go back to last year look you don't know the way these games are going to play out but probably the most exciting game of the regular season was the Rams against Seattle toward the end of the year then wound up in overtime that got I think ranked by most people as the number one game and then in the playoffs we wound up with Chicago against Green Bay with Chicago affecting that tremendous comeback and knocking off the Packers so you look at our schedule this year. I mean tomorrow night's going to be terrific a little later on the season we've got the New England going into Chicago on December the third Kansas City at the Rams San Francisco will meet the charges later on so we're we're very happy I mean the league has a tough decision to make because you've got all of these partners and you got to try to give them you know some very good games and they've given us our share we're very happy and very proud of it.

28:06You've got some elite quarterback showdowns you alluded to one of my homes again Stafford golf versus Allen is coming as we know this week Drake May Caleb Williams you alluded to that Lamar Jackson burrow on New Year's Eve the holiday slate looks looks like camp miss as well. Yeah and you know last year we I think we averaged about 15 16 million people so every year it has grown and you know we've got a great a great group of people I think on our our pregame and half time with Carissa Thompson leading leading the way so we're happy with the way things have evolved and where they've come and I think the league is they've shown us that they're pretty happy with the way Amazon's been telecasting and producing these games by the type of schedule that we've been given over the past couple of years. Let's talk some business of the of the league are you like all of us just shocked I guess it's shocked the right word when you see what valuations have done now and it's not just in the NFL but it's it's really all of sports you know obviously in your your hometown here with the Lakers just went for to to Iger and company but the NFL valuations have just served we need to keep updating our CNBC official team valuations live.

29:25I'm just every year because the numbers keep climbing beyond our wildest imagination. Yeah I watch very religiously and it seems as if every time somebody comes in it's another billion dollars and I saw there were Dallas was 16 billion so we had Gary Jones at our seminar earlier this year and I mentioned to him that he bought the team for 140 million back in 1989 and if they were worth let's say 15 billion that's a hundred seven times rate of return. And I happen to think that if the Cowboys were solely my go for close to the 20 I don't know where it stops Scott it's been crazy but it's it's in all sports now too I mean you've got the the angels just went for for four four billion dollars and you had the shandy of five days going for 3.9 it's up all over the place of course the Lakers situation we know what that is it won't stop it won't stop it's it's a great thing to have gotten into. Before before this big job evaluation and you know you wonder where will stop I don't know but remember now you got two universal languages as far as

30:33you know I'm concerned music and sports and you're seeing an Alan Spadey sports yeah there's no question about that I wanted to ask you about all that's been going on with AI and we all remember from the Paris games in in 2024 I mean you're the AI OG right AI they they they used you know the D.O.G. they used your you know an AI generated voice of course I'm just wondering you know as you sit as an observer as somebody who has literally had part of them used through AI what you're thinking about this revolution we're watching and we talk about it playing out in the markets of course as you think about that angle of it as well. It's a day-to-day thing I mean we all know what's going on right now with AI the slow it down what do you do you stay ahead of China of course this is this is what's the the number one financial story of this particular time I don't know in a way I think it's good it can be good but Scott it's also pretty scary but I was amazed when I wound up doing that for the Paris Olympics the fact that i'm listening to myself going wait a minute I didn't do any of this but that's me that's crazy so yeah where this goes is going to be a great moment.

31:47So, where this goes is anybody's guess. Lastly, I know you got to run, but what's your take on the market? The one thing I have to do, you know, this is part of our annual thing here. Farmer John is back there, Farmer John is back there eating Farmer John, but it's Farmer Jim. I don't want to know if Farmer Jim, I'm looking at Cleveland Cliffs, it's up 60 cents today. Farmer, are we getting back into this thing or what? All right, Al, thanks for the correction. You know I can't avoid this. You know, I'm always honored when you call me out, and it's my fervent hope that at some point it will be on a discussion topic other than Cleveland Cliffs. But I do think they're turning it around here. They've made a prediction that next year they're going to be over $3 billion in EBITDA. They had a very good quarter last quarter, and if they have a good quarter this quarter, which will be end of October, I think they come out of the penalty box. I really do. They've been in the penalty box for a long time.

32:49One good quarter isn't enough. You get two good quarters. It should be enough. Look where hot-rolled coil steel prices are. Well over 1,200. They make a lot of money at that point. Al, let me translate that to you for you. It was on the 1 yard line with 99 yards to go. Now it's on the 10 yard line with 90 to go. That Steve Weiss in case anybody didn't know who it was. Steve Weiss, everybody. From Jim, you've convinced me not to short it. That's what you've done. Apparently you're listening to Steve Weiss. Al, you're stealing my thunder, but I appreciate it anyway. You do well. You too, guys. Thanks. You have a great call tomorrow night. We'll see you soon. That's Al, Mike. Thank you. You can catch the kickoff. You can catch the kickoff. Thursday night football tomorrow, 6.30 pm, of course, on Prime Video. Up next, the check on the crypto trade that key Senate vote failing yesterday.

33:49Plus, we'll debate our top calls of the day. Joe's got to move as well. Hit that as well. They're September stock up event makes it easy to load your pantry and freezer with flavorful, nourishing food. Even better, there are hundreds of sales. Get dinner going with canned soups and veggies. Lean on frozen pizzas, pastas and seafood. Everyone loves their build your own family meals feeds for for just $35. Stock up at Whole Foods Market. Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, venture global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's venture global. That's unstoppable energy.

34:51This is Angus Maximus. This partner has one pound of hot, juicy, cooked to water, Angus meat. It's more expensive than a quarter pounder. The burger of clothes. And for only $5.99, even regular juice can afford it. Like that guy. Give me that big old burger. Yeah. The whole Angus Maximus only $5.99 is whole senior. A bill for a limited time of participating restaurants. Tax not included. Not valid for use within a combo or in combination with any other offer or discount. Welcome back to the halftime report. I'm Dominic Chiu with the CNBC News Update. An apartment building in Gaza City collapsed overnight, killing more than 20 people, including nearly a dozen children. The seven story building was unstable because of damage from previous Israeli strikes.

35:51Nearly 100 more people were believed to still be under the rubble. Rescuers say people sheltered there despite the dangerous conditions because they had nowhere else to go. President Trump's pick for Surgeon General was confronted on Capitol Hill this morning about her stance on vaccines. Dr. Nicole Sapphire said she has not seen reputable evidence that would suggest vaccines cause autism. And that she believes the measles' mumps' rubella vaccine is our greatest tool for combating measles. Trump's latest pick stalled less during the confirmation process because of her controversial vaccine stances the previous pick did. And the U.S. House passed a bill that would require all new vehicles be equipped with AM radio. Lawmaker said it's needed to push out emergency broadcast and other local programming. The bill requires the transportation secretary to come up with a rule within a year which would then take effect two years later. So Scott, what's new in the old ways maybe can coexist every once in a while.

36:51Yeah, all right. Tom, thanks. Tom, too. All right, Joe, let's talk about this move because Morgan Stanley's Eric Woodring looks at the iPhone. The 18 lead times and says flat year over year is actually a good start. We're what a week from the introduction of the new phones. You bought more of the stock. Yeah, which is interesting. You've been consistently buying this name, but why more right now? This is the sixth consecutive purchase since late March that I have made. Let's take the viewers back to July. The last purchase I made was on July 7th. Subsequent to that, they reported earnings. You got a big sell off from the $330 level. What has happened since then is a series of higher lows. In fact, after the worldwide developer conference on the 9th of September, it challenged the 100 day moving average at 309. It held exactly there. It has now recovered everything that it lost post earnings in July. And I am playing the very strong momentum that exists in this name right now looking for it to break out to an all-time high above 345.

37:58This is a technically oriented purchase. This is the sixth purchase, as I said. And I think the stock continues to move higher. And thankfully, it is showing resilience in helping out the overall market while we go through this period of elevated volatility. Okay. Thank you very much for that. Let's hit some stocks on the move and some things that are in the news for certain. Crypto, we're watching obviously given the cloture vote that failed in the Senate yesterday. Why, I mean, you've been in and out of Bitcoin at times. I'm wondering what you think this means now for not only the currency itself, but for the names that are around it, whether it's the coin bases, the Robinhoods, the strategies and others. Look, this is ran by true believers. You've seen major outflows since yesterday when the bill is stalled and looks like it's not going to pass. At least it's not going to pass for a while. There's path back, but it's unlikely. Look, there's no there there, my view. I've yet to see a business case, a business use case that makes sense and has come to reality. Despite the decade they've been talking about them, I think there's no utility to it.

39:02The banks are coming after them from market share with tokens and with stable coins. So it's going to remain a trading vehicle. Now, I think the bias is lower and that as long as Trump's in the White House, because of how much he said he made last year, 1.4 billion on the crypto assets, that people don't want to, that people that are running in the midterms and they will be running again later, don't want to answer to, okay, why do we support him with a cement rail? Well, so I just don't think there's anything there. Okay, we'll do one more AstraZeneca reiterated by UBS, Jimmy. Pullbacks overdone, they say. What do you think? Yeah, the pullback was on a failed drug trial for a heart treatment that they were working on. That was about two months ago. And when that happens with a quality pharmaceutical company like this that has a lot of different strategies that they're working on, a very full pipeline, it's a time to buy. So I agree with the call, very attractively priced good dividend yield.

40:03And I like the space. I think this is a space that does well regardless of what rates do. All right, we'll take a quick break. We'll come back with Mike Centoli, his market memo is next. We're back with our senior markets commentator in the overtime co-anchor Mike Centoli, his market memo. Okay, how are you thinking about this market right now? I mean, I think it's pretty well set up to kind of pivot in either direction on the Fed. I think it's mostly priced. Look, we have to look at the whole mosaic of evidence. I don't think the economy in the markets are screaming out for aggressive change in monetary policy. But the whole way to the evidence does point in that direction. Keep in mind, they're going to raise most likely by 25 basis points to a level that will be 50 basis points lower than we were a year ago.

41:07A year ago, Core PCE had been running under 3% for several months. It's now running comfortably above 3%. The unemployment rate in 2025 had gone from below 3.7 up to 4.4 when they started cutting those three cuts last year. Now it's back down to 4.1. It's kind of central banking 101 that if you're going to turn the dial on policy a little bit in reaction to all of that, you would snug it up just a little bit. I do think it's interesting. We have all these asset markets at these kind of fighter flight thresholds. They have the 5%, 10%, you got the S&P 500 right on top of its summertime range high. You go back to June 1st levels, obviously, oil at 100. So I think there's room for relief in the markets because internally the stock markets got a little over so I'm fascinated to see how the long end of the Treasury curve reacts to this. Because that's going to be the tell I don't expect a major rally that drops yields significantly and have them stay down there. I'm not even sure you'd want that because that's how the market might react if they thought the hike was a policy mistake.

42:09What happens if they don't hike, do you think? I think mass confusion. I think there will be a very gyrating market. I don't think 5% tens is really mostly about inflation getting de-anchored. It's just not. So I don't know that we would get the market selling off even more because of that. I think it's probably a mood. I think we've basically seen as an act of hostility by the chairman on the markets once you're priced for 90% of one thing and you give them another. That's going to be so, so, so interesting. Mike, thank you. That's Mike Centoli coming up next. Options action. Oliver Renek. He's following some notable activity in the energy trade today. We're back right after this. Time for options action. Oliver Renek joining us live from the Seavow Global markets in Chicago. What are we looking at today?

43:11Hey Scott, it's pretty amazing how consistently we see options traders fading big moves in oil. Trading in both USO and XLE lean bearish today with notably bearish trading happening in the energy stocks in particular. Volume 70% above the usual and more than twice as many puts traded in XLE then calls. 9 of the top 10 contracts traded were puts. There were also a lot of put sold but perhaps that just means traders are hedging bearish bets. We saw a lot of put buying in the 57 strike expiring one month from today which needs XLE to drop 12% to pay off. The exception to the action was some heavy call buying activity in the 65 strike call expiring today which is just out of the money. So perhaps some are saying that today's sell off in oil is overdone but the activity does lean bearish long term Scott. Okay, Oliver, thank you for that. That's Oliver Renek, Seavow Global markets in Chicago. Of course Joe, you've got JB Hunt and we know that these record high fuel prices, diesel and everything else are taking.

44:21$6 diesel, we need to bookmark today and revisit it. Is this the beginning of hearing the story about earnings degradation across the board attributable to rising energy costs. We purchased this at the end of July for the ETF at $271 so we're basically down on what we've lost today. I don't advocate stepping in here and buying it. I think you need stability. There's something about this that is troubling to me to hear the CFO come on and say earnings is going to be down 5 to 10% because of those high diesel costs and because of driver costs. So this is problematic. We also have Washington International and we have old dominion freight stocks are down across the board but do not dismiss this. Pay attention what's going on here. Maybe this is the beginning of something. Hopefully it's not. Jimmy, how are you thinking about this space right now given the holdings that you have? I think energy stocks are going to make a lot of money for the rest of this year. We're going to be refilling inventories across the globe for months and quarters to come when this when this conflict ends which is very much unknown.

45:26These stocks, these Exxon mobiles of the world, these shiniers, these fangs, these trans ocean, these stocks are going to be making a lot of money for a long time. And if I look at Exxon mobile, it still is not at the peak that it was at back in March. It's attractively priced. Say the same thing about Chevron. This is just obvious here. Okay. When we come back, we'll do the finals. Are you following the halftime report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the halftime podcast now. We'll be back in a couple hours. Jeffery gunlock, the double line CEO and CIO joining us right after chairworse finishes his news conference. Will they or won't they?

46:28We shall find out. We will do final trades though. Right now, Jenny Harrington, you can start us off. All right. Schwab trades at 14 times earnings has 20% plus earnings growth ahead. It's a kind of stock that you can literally hold forever in your portfolio. Farmer Jim, you just had to do I knew you were going to do this. I mean, I don't care if it's farmer John or farmer Jim just as long as out Michaels isn't short and Cleveland cliffs. I love it. Okay. This stock is 5% too. Shay. All right. Good for you. Steve, why is what you got? Yeah, United Health looks been a rough time lately, but I think it's on a way to recover. It's got a feeling very generous. So let me give you FTA. I also which announced a large buyback. The stock has been trashed. I think it brings back Joe inside corporate get back to New York safe Scott. All right. Thanks guys. The exchanges now seen a bit. You've been listening to CNBC's halftime report the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

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