Decision Zone?📈Crypto Technical Analysis with Tim Warren

0:00Well, it's decision time today, especially if you look at where the markets are. There might be some place today. We'll break it down for you. We've got a trader coming in. Tim, as usual, it's going to be fun. Before we get started, I want to thank our sponsor and that is BTCC, where you guys can get into doing a variety of different trade tactics, including copy trading. You get a 10% bonus on your first time deposit, along with the whole slew of benefits, including some discounts, and you do get some lower trade cost as well. So check it out. Use our link down below. It's going to get you into BTCC and start working on some of these trades out there, guys. Let's go over to a couple of points. Actually, let's just bring in Tim. You guys know Tim Warren coming in from Tim Warren trades over on YouTube. How are you, man? I'm doing good. Paul, good to be back on the show. How are you doing? The excellent, excellent. We got a lot happening today. Clarity continues to get the delay. And also, we're just dealing with, I think, a very unusual market, because I think a lot of people right now are trying to figure out what to do,

1:00making decisions on what is the route to take. Should I buy Bitcoin? Should I buy ETH? Should I buy an all-coin? Should I go into microstrategy? So we're going to try to answer a lot of that today. I'm looking at your post right here, Voltaugh, a week from Bitcoin and crypto. It's Friday, so we all know something crazy is about to happen. I would agree with you. The question is, what? Are we going to get something from Trump going into the Bitcoin conference this weekend? What do you think? What do you think? Anything? I mean, at this point, it is anyone's guess. What I though, and looking down the charts, I would imagine there's going to be some sort this weekend of bad news. I know we got some good news. Obviously, they're going to be actually going out to Pakistan again to discuss things with Iran. I think the big headline that just came in this morning obviously was, you know, for the longest time, some of those Republican senators were saying, we're not going to confirm Worsh until this DOJ probe is over. That's over. So now Worsh can get confirmed. The assumption is rate cuts are coming. That being said, we're sitting at resistance. There's

2:04some things on the charts we'll look over here in a couple of minutes that don't scream bullish to me just yet. I would love to be wrong. But I think the chaos right now people are feeling kind of positive. I think chaos might send us back down. Yeah. Well, hey, Zach panel from grayscale, hit it just on something you just mentioned there, which was domino number one had to fall. And that was the DOJ dropping the criminal probe on Powell. So that was a big deal. He referenced a couple of things right here. This is how the dominoes would fall for clarity. If clarity goes through, Trump has to take an off ramp from the Fed investigation done. Check the Senate Banking Committee confirms Kevin. It looks like that's going to happen. And then the banking committee has to move ahead with clarity markup, which is hopefully next step right now. And remember, you got Trump going into the Las Vegas event. Yeah, right here. He's going into Bitcoin Las Vegas this weekend. And I don't know if he's going to get the reception that he had at the

3:07last of time. What do you think? Do you think he's going to get that kind of reception? We had no strategic reserve. No strategic reserve. I could be wrong. So correct me if I'm wrong, but Cash Patel is going to be making his way out there as well. Correct. Yeah. Yeah. So we'll see. I mean, if you're solely into stocks, I could see you, you know, with that nice golf applause when Trump or Cash come out. But I don't know about crypto investors. Trump was supposed to come in and in the first couple of months of his presidency was supposed to change everything for crypto. And he hasn't, he hasn't turned on crypto himself. It's just the policies and things he's done, definitely cycle the entire bull market. I would not be surprised to get, I'm not going to be there, but I'm not going to be surprised if I was in the room. If you hear scattered applause from some diehard mega crypto nights and then some booze ringing out as well. Well, it'll be funny though. It is one thing you can, you can hate Trump, love him, whatever. You cannot argue. The man has comedic timing. So I'm interested to see how he responds to the crowd reaction.

4:12I am going to predict that he's going to get some booze. Yeah. I think so. Yeah. I think he's going to get some, I think it's going to surprise him because I think he maybe isn't as as close of touch to the crypto community. Right. And it's very possible that he may have to sidestep some questions around world liberty finance, which would be the worst if something like that comes. Is he supposed to be on a panel? Is he answering questions? No, no, but you know, I'm just wondering if somebody might, you know, shout out. Well, there'll be some, there'll be some heckling that one I bet. And they'll probably try to deal with it quickly. Let's look at this right here by Ted and then we'll get into it. So May will start in a week and it's been a reversal month for Bitcoin. All right. This since 2021, it's kind of been the sell and may go away. Has been right 80% of the time. Would that be the play for you this time? Because this has been down trends in the years where midterms occur. Yeah.

5:12Yeah, you know, so it's fun. We get to talk about this. I was actually going to talk about on my live show today as well, this discussion. Here's on the start off by saying, I am not a fan of any type of any type of analysis that just involves rhyming as it's base reasoning for why you should do anything with your money. I don't believe in it, right? And I don't feel like that makes me crazy. Also, obviously, if you had applied Selemann walk away in 2025, it would not have worked out so well for you. That was actually a pretty good time to be buying. With that said, while I don't believe in the rhyme, I don't use it as my financial advisor, I do think this time anyone who uses it could end up being successful because as we're, it has nothing to do with the rhyme has to do with as we're going into the month of May coincidentally, I think the charts are setting themselves up for another correction. So the correction and you've got Tom Lee talking about that. I want to play in terms of a major correction and then I want to play a clip here from Gareth talking about the

6:12NASDAQ and how this may play out. Take a look. Now, today we are up nicely on the NASDAQ. Will we push up and tag that key trend line that makes up this bigger parallel right here? And that would be a significant signal. If the NASDAQ hits the S&P has already hit, could this be the final blow off top of the market? And remember, folks, historically, if you look at the .com bubble, the biggest, most vertical move came in the NASDAQ in the final push. The question you just never know is how high it will go. All right. So right there, you saw Gareth kind of pushing on the point that a lot of analysts have been eluding to and that is a possible major pullback in the S&P and the NASDAQ with this trend heading up, which could affect Bitcoin right now. Do you think Bitcoin has had its run here around 77, 79, or do you think we still have a chance at over 80 when you look

7:14at the charts? Yeah. I mean, when I say that there's a chance at over 80, that's just because anything is possible. What I don't think is going to happen though is I do not think we're going to get above 80,000, let's call it 80,600. And my reasoning for that is this is the big WIC that we had back here in November. And what you have at the moment, the way my team's been working on this inside of our trading group, we're working with the established thought that this is an Elliott Wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 pattern. So one was between that top and that November dip down into the 80, thousand dollar level. Then Wave 2 was back up here to 98. Wave 3 was down to 60,000. Wave 4, is it confirmed over yet? Maybe not. I think it probably is, but it can't. In Elliott Wave theory, you can get back up to it. You can get very close to the bottom of Wave 1. You don't ever go above the bottom of Wave 1. So that's going to be some pretty staunch resistance. And then of course, Wave 5 is what takes you down to your new low or low. The thing that I'm watching though is

8:15it's not just that Elliott Wave theory, though. It's it's the fact that we have a lot of resistance in this camp. Notice, even as we got back up high, the volume really hasn't done much of anything, depending on what time frame you even look at. You can make the argument that times the volume starts popping up is actually as we're starting to hit some local cell spots. So the bowls aren't necessarily over exaggerating and getting stronger. And we're running into this trend of resistance. We now have, on my indicators, we now have daily cell signals. We have four-hour cell signals. We have both daily and four-hour bearish divergences where the R size now put in lower highs with higher highs and price action. So, you know, nothing is 100% in the world of cryptocurrency and technical analysis. But I see way more evidence saying that Bitcoin right now is overbought than oversold, even with all the good news that's come out here recently. And you go up my chart here now because I'm done talking about one. There's some great headlines this week, okay? And they've taken us right back up to resistance, but we're not seeing more volume come in.

9:16We're not seeing this overwhelming push from bowls to shatter through resistance, which to me kind of spells. This was more of a liquidation grab, meaning all the people who were bearish who maybe got in early to try to get this short early. We just want to liquidate them really quickly. And now we might see a misdirection to the downside. With that said, does that mean that I'm entering longs on Bitcoin or Ethereum? The answer there is no. And right now, I actually, I mean, a slight loss on a short position on Bitcoin when I entered the other day. If you guys want to take a look at that, I'll show your community what I have going on. It's going to be a little confusing, but I'll explain it here in a second. So this is my trade setup that I have for Bitcoin. I think it could get as low as 53,000. So my main take profit is down there, but I have some other take profit spots. I like to lock in profit on the way down. What I have now is I actually just this morning entered another short position. So I entered short the other day because there was reasonably, we can pull back after this move. But after our

10:16higher high and our bearish divergence, I have two different entry positions on Bitcoin at 77, eight-ish. And down here, I also entered at 75, nine. But again, that was the other day. My stop loss for the same reason I just told you guys earlier, my stop loss right now is up at 81,000. Why? Because if we were to break above this WIC back here, we've broken the five wave, Elliott Wave theory thought process. In which case, I at least want to re-evaluate what I've been looking at. But that level, that 80,500 is a hard, hard resistance level for me at the moment under the way I'm reading the markets. And like I said earlier, with those daily and four-hour divergences and cell signals, we're sitting at resistance. We've been kind of thinking this is an Elliott Wave move. Every reason the world right now, in my opinion, to be short on Bitcoin. But that doesn't mean in my long-term portfolio that I'm selling my Bitcoin. I'm in a DCA for long-term. I'm going to set people up for proper risk management, but also prepare, guess what, I think next week and maybe the week after we'll be able to DCA at even lower levels.

11:20You've got BM&R bulls talking about this right here, which is ETH pretty much dominating in terms of top chains by fees, even over a hyper-liquid there. If you look at Ethereum and Solana, I'm just going to go to the Solana chart. And if you look at the month of April, since April 2nd, that's a 12% move right now. Is this one of those that you feel probably has an opportunity to be in a short position here for Solana, especially when you compare it to what's happening with Ethereum? Where would you be on Solana right now? The really easy thing, Paul, is that when you look at a lot of those cryptos, you could probably just about trade it timeline-wise or signal-wise along with Bitcoin. So if I get a buy-signal on Bitcoin, I probably should be longing Solana in Ethereum. If I have a sell signal, I should be shorting it. Now, you want to look at the specific charts to see levels of serious resistance and support. For example, you look at Solana. I'm going to flip flop right here. So this is Solana's chart right

12:21here. This is Bitcoin. Clearly, Bitcoin was trading in a rising channel, same with Ethereum. So Ethereum kind of more similar to Bitcoin. Solana, while the moves and the waves were very similar, it's more horizontal, right? So I have a resistance level here between 90 to 93 dollars and support recently between 78 and 75 dollars. But if Bitcoin's sell signal holds up, by the way, those exact same signals are coming in on Solana here as well. You don't have the bearish divergences per se, but the reason you don't have the bearish divergences is because unlike Bitcoin, we didn't just come up here and set a new last couple of months high here. We're actually kind of just trading sideways. So with those sell signals coming in on both these time frames, with Bitcoin specifically having bearish divergence, I'm more of a fan right now of a move to the downside, right? So on Solana, and I won't set this all up perfectly, but I'd be looking at short positions. I would probably be looking to take some initial profits back down here at 78, just because I'm a big fan of

13:24take profits as you get them, take some capital off, lower your stop loss down to break even, and then I'd be looking for moves. I have targets. I think I've said them on the show before, but I have targets. Solana could get to as low as 60 to potentially $50 and no one wants to hear that. Yeah, but that reality with the charts are saying right now and that's where the big support is coming in is 60 and 50 dollars. If DeFi restores the 200 million shortfall through voluntary coordination, it'd be an absolute historic vote of confidence. No taxpayer funded bailed out, just grit. Okay, so DeFi is if this in fact gets done, this would be very, very bullish for DeFi in general with all of the things that have happened in DeFi. Yeah, and you look at just in the last 10 days, right? How, first of all, how are you playing this right now? Are you working in DeFi at all with any of your strategies, or are you even looking at any of the DeFi tokens, whether it's you know, you know, swap or even Abe? We put out a video this last week

14:25called the top five real asset plays and not the top five real. There's a list. We did a list where we had we were talking about Abe swap. I can't remember which video it actually was at this point. And we love Abe. I recorded the video. I think the day before the hack came out. Oh, and but we still posted because it was a good video. It was just one of several coins on there we were talking about. And I had some comments below, pretty much saying 10, how do you ignore this information? Well, it wasn't out there when I made the video. We did record a video shortly after because there's, you know, there's that 15-minute panic, you know, you see the news, you see the chart, you start to freak out and you say, you know what, what's going on here? And I need to rethink my allotment of Abe. And I want to show the Abe chart. I know this wasn't probably part of the plan, but I want to show people what I saw in the chart. So, so Abe is starting to catch some momentum here was even starting to break it for the first time since this trend line started back here in August of 2025. We actually put some daily candle, actually two daily candles above that red line. But then the news came out here and the news came out around,

15:28I think it was Saturday the 18th and then we dropped. But look what we dropped back down to. You know, if you were just reading headlines, I told this to my committee, you would have thought that the chart had actually looked like this, right? Yeah. You would have thought that we were at lows yet and seen a long time. We just dropped back down to the same support level we were at the week prior. So, so this isn't screaming at me a massive exodus from Abe. What's even more important is this wasn't the first time it was the largest hack, but this wasn't the first time anything on built on Abe had gotten hacked and it'd been sort of some sort of problem. Well, I'm telling my community is we haven't had a legitimate, you know, you used to live in this world where every other month people would come out with some sort of reason my Bitcoin was dead. And it felt real. When was the last time someone claim people claim Bitcoin dead all the time? But no one actually ever it never affects us. I think we're in a new wave where DeFi you're going to hear a lot of DeFi is dead. DeFi is dead. And there's going to be there's going to be very real situations that happen that make your brain and your guts feel like, man, I think this might be it.

16:32This might hurt. The last real big one was what? FTX collapse way back there in 2022. Can you can you trust the DeFi world whatsoever? Remember remember one token. This is I think this one of the earliest times is on your show. You you talked about this before. One of the tokens most hurt by that whole situation was Solana and the whole thing came out Solana's dead. DeFi is dead. I came on your show and then you reminded me several times. I wasn't a I wasn't a fan of Solana the time, but I told you on your show, I said, I think $8 is a decent support level. Yeah, we're going to buy about $8. What would go on the next year Solana would go on to be the number one token in cryptocurrency. And while it's not necessarily the top list right now, the charts are doing anything sexy. I don't think anyone thinks so on as dead or gone. But it felt back in the fall of 2020 for sure. It felt like Solana was done for sure. And I think we're looking at something very similar right here with Avi where Avi is the number one player right now in the DeFi space. And

17:34yeah, they have a black eye. But the charts not falling apart. And I told my community also, Paul, I said, we will always need DeFi as long as two things are true. Number one, as long as people exist. And number two, as long as governments are corrupt. And I don't think I don't think either one's about to change. So we got DeFi as a black eye, DeFi corrected. But I said it's an opportunity because it'll switch all around. And I think Ave, Uniswap, DeFi as a whole, we'll forget these headlines in the next. It seems as though it's starting to recover with the amount of negative news that came against it. And I think it's interesting too. I have a whole theory that will do in the lightning round that I want to get your opinion on. Let's jump over to XRP real quick. This wasn't necessarily a ripple announcement, but it wasn't announced by SoFi where they're now allowing access to XRP within the SoFi account. This was intriguing to me because SoFi has a

18:36large number of users. But more importantly is that it's a bank that now has XRP access, which means we're probably going to see more banks starting to roll in this, which means maybe more retail adoption. When you look at the XRP chart right now, granted, it's just like everything else. There's been a nice little up for a short period of time. We're expecting a possible retracement. Where would be an entry point for a brand new XRP holder? A brand new one. Well, again, so I'm saying it's a very good distinction to say brand new brand new. You don't know what to look for yourself. You don't know who to trust. I tell people all the time like I'm not a financial advisor. Paul, I could be wrong. I don't think you're a financial advisor. You know, we're just two guys who are investing in space. We put our personal money into it. We have educated analytics that maybe a beginner doesn't have, but but I'm not going to sit here and lie to you. You don't lie to people. You don't know what the future looks like for price action. But there's proper tactics on investing. And that is again, DCA strategy. I'm a technical analyst and I will

19:39tell you at the beginning, DCA, DCA, DCA. It always wins. Yeah. When's a good spot to buy XRP right now? Why? Because I actually walked my brother through the city. I was well, my brother invest. And I told him right now there's there's four options out there. Number one, you can just not invest because you trust the US dollar more than you trust crypto. Sure. That's an option. But if you're watching this content, that's probably not you. Number two, you could go all in right now. All of you know, $10,000 to best put it all in right now. Listen, if the bottom's in and we go up, you sound brilliant. If the bottom's not in and we go down, you feel like an idiot. The option three is you think we're going to go down. Let's say you think XRP's in a drop to a $1.20. And you hold all of it for $1.20. Well, guess what happened? If we go to a $1.20, you feel smart. If we go up, you feel like an idiot. Yeah, obviously. Don't put it all in right now. I had $10,000. Spread that out over the next 10 weeks. I think we have some time here. At least

20:39over the next five weeks, a portion today, a portion next week, a portion the week after, and that way you get the best. If the bottom's in, you'll layer it on the way up. But you had this week was a great option. If the bottom's not in great, you're going to be able to lower your average position over the next couple of weeks as we get back down. Let's jump over to our special. We have a new special lightning round. Oh, my goodness. Holy cow. Oh, I love it. There's chains. Oh, my goodness. Day 1,000 clarity. Not bad. And because of your, you know, your personal test, you know, so I ask you the question, are you working out? Anyway, we thought we'd have some fun with that. We got the chain. I'm going to start adding trend into my regiment. Yeah. There you go. Hey, let's go over here. What is more likely to happen first? Do we get stablecoin yield compromise or do we get a straight-of-hormose compromise? That's a good question. My, my business partner, T-Shroom, he would tell you that the reason the state, they're not going

21:42to solve the stablecoin problem until they solve the Hormuz problem. I don't know if that's true. Part of me wants to be in the middle, because I'm not sure, but I actually think that we might solve the stablecoin yield problem first. That's not leaning right now. I am with you on that. I think we're going to find out one way or another, I think, because we're at the deadline here. Granted, you know, any day now, actually, you know what? I'm going to change mine. I think any day now we can get this done. I'm going to go there. Yeah. There we go. All right, Trump's speech tomorrow. This happens at the Bitcoin conference. What would he most likely say about clarity? Generic statement or nothing, or will he call out the banks? He'd be stupid to call out the banks, because I think he's hoping that they're going to play deal. So I'm going to say probably generic statement or nothing. By the way, it was a generic nothing statement last time he talked to the Bitcoin conference. So I think it'd be stupid if he goes out and goes after the banks, because he needs to be

22:45friends with them. He needs to make them feel like bodies to get this deal across the line. So I'm going to go do you think I think so. I don't I don't think Trump is going to go on to a dentist right now. I think he's going to go crazy. Maybe go all in and get him. There you go. If stablecoin yield deal isn't reached in the next seven days, Trump unleashes another tweet. You know, he's already done it once again, these tweets. But what do you think? Next seven days, listen, if it does pass the next seven days, he'll find some reason to unleash a tweet. So let's go. Yes. There's one thing we can count on. It's a it's a crazy Trump. We're going to truth post market crashes on May 1st, expecting a clarity markup. See, I don't even know. I mean, I don't I'm going to say yes. I don't know if it's May 1st itself or it's a little before or a little after. But I do think markets again, the charts are telling me the markets have a crash coming in the in the month of May. I'm in agreement with that for right before. Yeah. Here's a conspiracy theory. This is something we've been

23:49with thinking about recent drift and kelp Dow hacks, the DeFi situation. Yep. We're perfectly timed by Citadel to kill the clarity and DeFi protections. What do you think? Yeah, I didn't know we were going to get that part of the conversation. I'm not going to pull out. You know, I have a 10 do you want to put on the 10? You know, you know, why not? You know, we have to we have to give the people what they want. Yeah, this is what I speculate. I have no evidence, Paul. But the timing and the coincidence, it's just uncanny. It's just uncanny. And I've been saying for a long time, I think that Paul, I think they already know what they want to do. I think they've already come to terms, but they're not ready for price bottom to be in yet. So they got to play this song and dance and and freak out retail. But part of that song and dance is we have to we have to give them nibbles to make them feel optimistic. So anyone listening is right now saying to him, they've had so many good conversations like, yes, that's part of the song and dance. Now they're going to crush our spirits. And then they got to bottom. They're going to buy the dip and then all of a sudden the stars align and oh, guys, we came to an agreement with past this bill.

24:52The party's on. Yeah. Here we go. Ave opening defi with draw gates will dump altcoins one more time. I don't know. That's. Yeah. I don't know. I think that I think altcoin. Yes, altcoins dump one more time. I don't know if I blame Ave necessarily, but they will. All right. Justin Sun versus world liberty file unleashes the world liberty five files exposes years of long pay for play corruption by industry leaders. What do you think? Yeah. Unlikely. Unlikely. I think that Trump's going to be able to the high saddle or they get a they get a settlement. Yes. I think yeah. Because all the just I that's my good. I'm in that camp. I think they settle out. I think that Justin gets his way. They in there, you know, they're hugging a banana again, you know, and they're back at it. Doing the things they do. Kevin Morse immediately cuts rates in his first or second meeting FOMC meeting. Yes. First or second. Yes. First or second. Okay. I'm with you on that one as well.

25:58I think he will. He's setting it up to and a lot of these hearings. If you listen to how he's talking about inflation and you know, he's blaming. Hey, inflation isn't caused by anything except you dummy's printing money and spending too much. Right. All right. Well, we'll see. First or second meeting. I think I thought I got that. Yeah. There we go. All right. What is the better leveraged tradfi Bitcoin, ETH play post clarity would it be master or BNR? I don't know. Well, let me look at the BNR chart real quickly because I know where Micro strategy is. I'm going to go with BNR for. Yeah. I'm looking at this. I think BNR is in the back. Because I'm more of an ETH play right now. Even though I do like some of the listen, we just had the master guys on the strategy guys on this week. I think we're going to publish that video today or tomorrow. It's already out. Okay. So the that was a good interview because we learned a lot about stretch, which is one of their leveraged products, which is very interesting. And if

27:04anything, that could be intriguing. But I still think BNR has more upside. Yeah. I think an extremely quick look at the charts. And I can't go too depth in here, but I think that there's a little more meat on the bones for BNR to continue to move up versus Micro strategy looking a little bit more overbought in my opinion. So yeah. Very good. What is the bigger stablecoin adoption news this week? We get Morgan Stanley doing stablecoin reserves portfolio and we call it MILF. I like it. It has to be MILF. I mean, come on. It has to be. It has to be. Or Port Hum. That's the one that needs to be. I don't even know if the right answer is for this principle. I'm going to hope that it's Morgan Stanley. Let's go with Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley. All right. There you go. I would just be too good. That'd just be so beautiful. Oh man. So crazy.

28:06All right. So let's go to this one right here. What prediction market is more likely to take Purps market share away from hyperlink? Would you think it'd be calcium or polymarket if it gets powered by chain link? Yeah. Listen, that's just an added bonus for me that is powered by chain link. If you had left those little details off there, I still would have said polymarket. Yeah, I'm with you. Okay. What else we got here? I think we got one more. After clarity passes coin base, unleashes omega ad campaign, telling America to flee the banks. These are good questions that you're making my brain even think about. I've never even thought about it. But coin base is very creative with their ads. So they're going to do. I don't know if it's going to be like obvious, but like watch for them to potentially maybe subtly put that out there. Like find a way of telling a story that makes people say, yeah, I don't trust banks. I didn't move my money coin base. I think they're going to go hammer down. I think this is going to be. Yeah,

29:09this is going to be a hammer down. Well, the likelihood is it's going to be, you know, there's going to be a compromise on on this that coin base didn't get everything to one. And so I think they're going to be a little bit of a little bit of payback, you know, payback fair play as they say. If you're not out there following Tim Warren over on YouTube, make sure to do that. Tim Warren trades right there. The latest video right here, game over this one right here, game over. Go watch that one right now. Spend some time with Tim. I love it. There we go. It's good to see you in your mind. Take care. You too.