DEEP DIVE: Patriots vs Seahawks With Doug Kyed

0:00Good morning everybody. Welcome to another episode of Hawkboggy Mornings. I'm Brian Nemhouser. It is a Sunday, the last Sunday without NFL football for a very long time. And we've got another episode here of good stuff getting you ready for the season open or not only for the Seahawks, but the entire NFL between the Seahawks and the Patriots who finished last season down there and Levi Stadium. Good, good way that ended for one team not as good for the other, but excited to welcome back Doug Kite of the Boston Harold and this episode is brought to you by Pemko Insurance, serving Northwest families for over 75 years as well as prize picks. Doug, man, you know about the Northwest, how you doing, man? You excited to come back for a bit? I do. I was born in Edmunds, Washington, so I'm very excited. I was just back there last last summer really excited to get back. See some friends, see some sites. So yeah, I've been looking

1:02for this for weeks. The season can't start soon enough for me. Edmunds is one of the jewels of Seattle. I have to say, I mean, my wife and I have talked about where we'd want to kind of move next to this stage of our lives. We're at the point where we talk about stages of our lives. And Edmunds just has the view. It's got like that communal feel. There's this great thing that they've done the last few years called porch fest where people just come out and play music on their porches. I've seen grandfathers and grandsons, you know, it's great. It's a great community. It seems like a great community. So I'm sure you've got some Edmunds history in your mind when you go back there. For sure. It's changed a lot, but yeah, it's great to get back there for sure. So last time you and I spoke was Radio Row Super Bowl, all the stuff going on, all the pomp and circumstance. And I got to start with this dog like even during that prep, I got a little bit of

2:03feelings from Patriots folks that they weren't necessarily expecting to win that game. And they were happy to be there. And I want to ask if you felt that way or you got that feeling. And then too, I've been kind of listening to some Patriots coverage about this game. And I'm kind of taken back by how little Patriots analysts are giving the Patriots any chance in this game. So am I just imagining things or what's your take on those two? I think it's certainly fair about this rule. I think it was just such a quick turnaround for the Patriots that no one expected them to be in the Super Bowl in the first place. And I forgot exactly where I wound up. I think I wound up tricking myself and thinking like the Patriots had a chance to win that game and one clearly they didn't. So Patriots fans were correct and just kind of being happy to be there because this was a team that went four and 13 two years in a row. And then suddenly go 14 and three and they're in the Super Bowl. No one went into last season thinking that was going to be the case. And it probably

3:05shouldn't have been. The schedule certainly played a factor, but Drake may play a lot better than anyone expected him to play like very able to do a better job of bringing them back around. Some of the free agent moves obviously play a huge factor as well. So that leads us to this year. I think it's based on how the Super Bowl went with people having the same thought of like, all right, yeah, probably not going to win this one, but gonna still have a pretty good season just because they did get trounced so much in the Super Bowl. They were outplayed out manned out everything. I think it's going to be closer than the Super Bowl. I think the teams have kind of started to meet in the middle a little bit more. I would still probably have the Seahawks winning this game. But yeah, I think that that's where that feeling stems from. It's like, all right, you shouldn't have been that good last year. They'll be a little better this year, but not sure if they've reached that point that the Seahawks were at in Super Bowl. Yeah, what was it? Sixty? Yeah, six. Alex. Yeah. And so he used to writing it. That was like, what was that? I like, you're about to say something. I was like, I

4:10don't remember what was about to say LX actually. Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. So I, if you look at that, if that Super Bowl, one of the players that really stood out for the Patriots was Christian Gonzalez. He had a fantastic game. Was one of the best players on the field for either team. And it seemed very clear that with their spoons shares the same agency as as Christian Gonzalez, one of them was going to get paid first and the other was going to get paid and it was just a matter of who is going to be first and this was going to be wrapped up. What on earth is going on? Why is this not done? It's really wild. I think there's a few different factors in play here. The local radio hosts would let you know that it's cheap ownership. The team is cheap. I don't think it's as simple as that. I think that Christian Gonzalez and his agency, like that team, I don't want to say Christian Gonzalez, but that team views him as being the best cornerback in the NFL. So I think that even just like the witherspoon contract probably

5:16is in quite where they want to be. I think the higher, I think that they want to the feeling that I get is that this isn't something that they want to like, okay, the next guy of science, the next office and then jumps ahead of Christian Gonzalez and a year or two down the line, he's severely underpaid. So in that place of factor, I do think that the Patriots aren't a team that have historically signed these record breaking contracts. The last real record breaking contract, they signed a player to was Rob Grant Kowski and that was like over 10 years ago when he became the highest paid tight end. So I think that plays a factor. They're not a team that's used to signing their first drum picks to second contracts. The last Patriots first drum pick that signed a second contract in New England was Dante Hightower who was who was drafted in 2012. So you're looking at 14 years there of them not signing the so I think that plays a factor by also think that just the agency that Christian Gonzalez is with as you mentioned, he shares an agent with Devon with

6:20their spoon. He also shares an agent with Gabe Ackas, the Patriots second round pick who didn't sign his rookie contract until the first day of training camp. He shares an agent with Keon White and Jalen Polk, both of whom were traded by the Patriots last year. So there's like a little bit of a history there. All in all, I did not expect this to take this long. I thought it was pretty cut and dry, okay, with their spoon signs his contract, Gonzalez gets a little bit more and then you go on your way and he's on the team. That's not the way it's played out and it's been surprising to me and now you're getting the point where you're three days away from the season opener and Christian Gonzalez is not threatening not to play but at least not confirming that he will play in this game without the extension. How do you read that? I've heard I've heard the locker room interviews and you know people kind of talk about this and the rumors and Jeremy Fowler and everyone else talking about this. I kind of interpreted it as I'm not going to confirm something that's going to give the team any leverage but I'm probably going to play but do you read it differently? Do you

7:25think there's any real chance that Christian Gonzalez is going to pull a hammy, you know, Tuesday night and sit this one out? I would be very surprised but just the fact that he's not saying yes, I'm going to play week one, is it posturing, is it a thread, is it whatever, it's at least something. And he could just say, yeah, of course I'm under contract, I'm going to play because that's the way that my variable is kind of hamlet is that if someone's healthy in their under contract, I expect them to play in the game. So I do think it's a little bit of posturing on his part but no, I think that you're right, it's like why is he going to let that information out when all that could do is have the picture saying, oh, I guess we don't have to sign this guy to contract extension will be fine. He'll play the whole season. Then maybe after this year we revisit this or maybe we'll let him play on the fifth year option and franchise him twice whatever. That's not a realistic situation today, NFL but that could give the team that idea at least if he seems

8:25willing to do everything they need to do. And he is like he had an injury earlier in training camp so he could still use that. He sat out two weeks of training camp. It's a little unclear if it was entirely injury related because it coincided with joint practices against the Colts and the Eagles and didn't really seem to make sense to anyone, any media members, to put Christian Gonzalez out there if he's not going up against his own team. But I asked him directly, like did you sit up because of injury or was contract related and he wouldn't give a direct answer on it. So, and like just some background and it started to ramble here but like Christian Gonzalez is not he's not like a diva player. Like this is all it's all very new for him to even be speaking to us this much because he's a really quiet person, really quiet player. Usually he's the type of guy where you're in the locker room, it's Thursday or Friday, you just grab Christian Gonzalez, there's a locker room in a scrum, he talks for two minutes and you kind of go on about your day.

9:27This is all very new to him. So, it's been interesting to see the personality come out a little bit more and just to see how savvy he is about not giving the answers that like people want out of him, but he's been playing everything very close to his vest. I think he's been handling it pretty well, like pretty media savvy so far. Well, it is a fascinating situation. This is a team like you said, as a fifth year option on this player, you have the franchise tag. So, this is not something necessarily has to come to an end anytime soon, but from Christian Gonzalez' perspective, there's reasons to get this done sooner rather than later. So, it is a fascinating thing. I had no idea that the Patriots have had that history with the first round picks. That is wild. We're talking to Doug Kyd of the Boston Herald and Pat Chatt podcast and Doug, there's other changes to this team for this week. I'm going to get into those. Before we get there, let's talk

10:27about injuries and just availability of guys. One of the big ones is Travion Henderson and whether or not he is going to be available, the talented running back who has some past protection issues, but is also a real explosive threat. Then, Harold Landry, who has been their best ed Russia of not the best edged group, he is on PUP and will not play in this game. So, what's your kind of take on Travion Henderson and the potential impact of him not being there if he's not there? Yeah, I think we would have seen Ramondra Stevenson start this game anyway and probably play the majority of the snaps, some sort of maybe like 60, 40 share or something, but this does, Travion Henderson didn't look like he was about to go out to practice today and this week Sunday is a Thursday. So, if a guy is not practicing out there on a Thursday Sunday, in this case, it doesn't look great for his status. So, if he doesn't play, the running back depth gets

11:29really challenged. You've got Corey Kiner, who is just acquired off from a trade with the Cardinals. You've got Hassan Haskins, who's kind of bounced around the NFL. Lamb Larison, he was a rookie last year, missed all season. He's not doing much out there, other than catch passes that we've seen so far. So, I think they would just really have to rely on Ramondra Stevenson and it takes out a home run threat. And like CX fans might not believe that, based on how Travion Henderson played in the Super Bowl, he didn't really do a whole lot, but he's the guy who can rip off a 90 yard run and he did that a few times and other than that, he was a little bit boomer bust last season, but at least takes that threat off the field and Ramondra Stevenson is the better complete running back. He's better in pass protection, better between the tackles. Maybe even slightly better as a pass catcher so far, but you do need that thunder and lightning to really untapped the potential of this Patriots, running group and running back core and everything. So, it's not like the most significant injury because you still have Ramondra Stevenson, but it does limit your ability and makes you a little

12:31more predictable. So, that's a hit and I mean, hair Landry mentioned as well, he's starting the year on PUP. It's kind of unclear when they're even going to get him back. Right now they've got Dremont Jones and Elijah Ponders are starting edge guys. I would have to imagine that's the weakest or among the weakest starting outside linebackers, edge rushers, whatever you want to call them in the NFL. And then behind them, you've got two rookies, Gavakis, the second round pick and Quintavia's Hutchins, who was a seventh round pick. Gavakis, I love his potential, I love the pick at the time, I like that they traded up for him. He's looked lost during preseason so far. And it's to me, scary to think that he's going to be your backup in that role because I mean, he wasn't setting the edge, he was biting on on read options. He like, it's just it was a real, it was like disaster is too harsh, but it was an adventure when he was on the field. So I'm not sure exactly what they do there. Maybe they move Milton Williams to the edge in some situations. Maybe they go big up front with Milton

13:35Williams, Christian Barmore and Corey Darden, but like that, that edge group, it makes me feel like I'm crazy looking at it because I just can't believe that the team didn't do more to settle it and solve it this off season. Yeah, it does feel surprising because when I look at this, these two teams, one of the things that stood out is just the Patriots edge rush was challenged and then they move on from Chezon who at least was the best, but he was an effective blitzer and gave them a little bit there. And I just I didn't understand the plan. I liked Gavakis. How do you pronounce the last name again? It is. Yes. Yes. Okay. I've been doing it right. A proper everybody. I got that one right. But like it's a little bit interesting to see how they've handled that. And then obviously one of the other things that was a challenge for the Patriots was let me put it this way. The Patriots were one of the best passing offenses in the NFL,

14:36but they did it with kind of a no name or receiving core. And so now you take that out. You say goodbye to Stefan Diggs. You say hello to AJ Brown who you do use a first round pick on and who cares because you're not going to resign those guys anyway. And you also add in Romeo dobs. And I did look up that is dobs. No, dobs. People keep telling me it's dobs, but it's dobs. Anyway, so what kind of impact you expect AJ Brown and Romeo dobs who I think is an underrated addition to have to that offense. It's going to be massive, I think, because like you meant like Stefan Diggs, he was better than I expected last year, especially coming off the tourney CL, how to thousand yards, but I don't think yet over 40 yards in any postseason game last year. So he disappeared a little bit down the stretch, especially as teams started game plan a little bit more for him. They did having AJ Brown and Romeo dobs in there. Obviously you can still game plan or like you can game plan to

15:37stop those guys, but just the fact that there's two of them in there now helps so much. Romeo dobs has been much better than I even expected him to be this summer in the red zone. He's been a great threat. He's winning those jump balls, winning contested catches. He's been great. I think the red zone offense is going to be much better this year. I think having AJ Brown to take attention off other guys is going to be huge. I can see him moving around the offense as well. Wouldn't be surprised if you see some AJ Brown in the slot. They've liked using him on slants this whole summer. So it untapped the potential of the offense quite a bit because I think the Drake may probably overperform the last year based on what he had in his receiving core and on the offensive line. And now both of those are better and they've even accentuated like they've added other positions as well. They've got Eli Raritan, the rookie at tight end. He's had a solid camp. They've got Reggie Gilliam at fullback so that helps out the run game quite a bit as well. But yeah, it's the best receiving core the Patriots have had probably since like the Randy Moss West Walker days.

16:43And it'll be interesting to see even how they use some of the other guys like Demario Douglas is probably their starting slot receiver. He's great at getting open in man coverage. Kyle Williams had three touchdowns and three preseason games and two or three of them were deep. Mac Collins is a good blocker. So one of the best wide receiver cores in the NFL now after last year when it was middle of the road at best and a years before that among the worst in the NFL. So what do you think that's going to do in terms of is it going to make the Patriots who already were the most explosive passing offense and one of the most is it going to make them be able to sustain that? Are they going to realistically be better than they were last year? Is it just a matter of last year's numbers were inflated by the competition and now they'll be able to sustain it a little bit better against top comp? How do you kind of interpret that? I think the numbers will probably be relatively similar because like they couldn't get much better from efficiency standpoint, EPA,

17:43all those types of things. So I think it'll it'll stay pat but it will mean more since it is coming a bunch against much better competition. Patriots had the weakest schedule in the NFL last year, historically weak schedule. And this year, I mean like even the teams that they play that didn't make the playoffs last year are like the Lions who expect to be one of the best teams in the NFL. The chiefs who everyone always is expecting a bounce back from. So it's a really tough schedule but I think they'll be able to sustain the offensive success. I don't know if we'll see Drake maybe as efficient just because I don't know. I mean like I think that's it wasn't an aberration last year but I think that everything went right for him to have the numbers they did. I think you'll have more yards, more touchdowns, maybe the completion percentage drops a little bit. But I've been saying kind of all summer like the team is going to be better this year but that might not be reflected in the record that they have this year and it might not even be reflected in like the statistical

18:44rankings but they have improved as an offense. So that's where I'd go with that. And I think the offensive line plays a huge factor as well. We'll see Will Campbell and Jared Wilson they're entering their second seasons. They'll be better. Will Campbell isn't dealing with a knee injury so that should help them. And they added a large affair talker at left guard. Proble level talent when he's healthy. Unfortunately he's only played I think he's played fewer than half of his available NFL games since entering the league but if he can stay healthy that's a huge boost at left guard as well. Yeah and that was a huge story as we kind of look at this is looking at Patriots, Seahawks regular season numbers in most places here last year. And this is obviously getting back to where the Patriots have a advantage is red or the Seahawks have advantage is green and EPA per dropback number one drop pack success rate number one explosive pass rate number one and also doing it without that many turnovers. 11th in interception where the throw rate but then you get to the pressure stuff and this is where the offensive line really showed up you know the Patriots 22nd in pressure rate

19:49allowed. They did okay not allowing a lot of quick pressures but the sac rate 28th and some of this is definitely on the quarterback. And so you know I'm curious you know how much do you think that this offensive line is going to help with those problems versus Drake May is like every other quarterback and sacs kind of a record or back sat stat. I would not be surprised with the stax for sacs remain high. I did a like I went back last year and looked at every single one of his sacs and so many of them were these weird plays where he would like try to scramble up the middle at the last second and lose like a yard or two or he'd be he'd be like trying to throw running out of bounds and like running out of bounds for like a one yard loss. So I think we still see a decent amount of those just because that's his play style but I think the pressure numbers decrease significantly just based on the improvements of the offensive line and those guys have to stay healthy they don't have the best depth especially a tackle they selected Caleb Lomu in the

20:54first round of the last year's draft trade up for him. He had a little bit of a shaky summer so I think that if he was forced to play early things could be a little shaky there on the offensive line. They've got better depth on the interior offensive line Ben Brown's not practicing but they acquired Greg Van Roten late in the summer 36 year old offensive lineman but seems like he's going to be stepping in right away as the backup guard so yeah their depth's a little bit all over the place but overall I expect the group to be significantly better. Another factor there is just that they're entering the second year in Josh McDaniel system and remember we talked to Jared Wilson who moved from left guard to center this offseason. He was talking about just the challenges of learning Josh McDaniel system last year that his head was kind of swimming even by the end of last season because it's such a complex offense. Having those two young guys in this offense now for the second year I think it's going to be massive. I think that Will Campbell will play closer to what he did during the regular season last year than what we saw from the postseason

21:54when when things did not go well for him as he was dealing with that knee injury. So I hate to set expectations too high for the offensive line but they'll be better than they were last year by a pretty significant margin I think. Yeah that does seem realistic. I have some questions about Will Campbell and whether there's limitations there that are hard to overcome but the other part of this and then I'll I'll get one more question I'll let you get on your way. This is another way to look from an offensive line. This is the run game for the Patriots versus the Ceeox run defense and you see there's no red here and that was a story in the Super Bowl last year and the Patriots struggling. They just were never that efficient of a run team to begin with and the Ceeox were not quite a historic but they were by far and away the best run defense in the NFL and they're able to do it from a light personnel group. So when you kind of look at that run game is there

22:56reason to think that this offensive line is going to help them get better as well? Yes in some ways I think we'll see a little bit of a boost from the offensive line. I also think that adding Reggie Gilliam at fullback helps quite a bit and I know he's not going to be on the field for a hundred percent of snaps or anything like that but when he is on the field he's going to make a a pretty big difference because the Patriots had Husky's legend Jack West over at fullback last year for them and like he did his best and he had to be moved from tight end to fullback not as stout of a player as Reggie Gilliam not as physical as a player as Reggie Gilliam so that's about as big of a boost I think that you could get from one season the next just as far as I guess fullbacks go but Gilliam will do a much better job of leading the way for Ramanjari Stevenson and for Trivia and Henderson. I think the offensive line will do a better job. We'll see if Ramanjari Stevenson can have the same success that he did midway through last season when he really became the Patriots best running back because early in the season he struggled significantly

24:01with fumbles wasn't gaining a lot of yards on the ground wasn't really getting any yards after contact then something flipped for him where he turned into a much better player from like week six on or whatever it was. I'm curious to see if he does start slow again this year though because if he does they might struggle to have any semblance of a rushing attack especially if Trivia and Henderson isn't playing out there. I still have a lot of questions even if Trivia and Henderson does play just because he was so boomer bust last season. I feel like when he wasn't ripping off 90 yard runs or 50 yard runs like it almost every time was like Trivia and Henderson one yard Trivia and Henderson no gain Trivia and Henderson loss of one he was not his vision was not great last year he wasn't getting a lot of power behind his runs so he's got to be much better when he does get healthy. So yeah certainly still some questions about the run game but I am very curious to see how big of an impact Gileam has. The other fact are there too they signed Julian Hill the Tyden from the Dolphins this off season and I think the idea behind that it was a kind of surprisingly

25:06large contract three years 15 million dollars for a player that wasn't tendered by the Dolphins. Then the idea was that he was going to be your blocking Tyden there. He suffered a season ending injury during the spring so he's out for the year hunter Henry decent blocker Eli Raritan not sure how much you can get out of a rookie as a blocker and then they've got Tanner Arkin an undrafted for Agent out of Illinois who really is probably going to be their blocking Tyden and then Cameron Latu who will see how much he plays. I do question how well the Tyden's are going to be blocking but one thing they could do to fix that is by having Lomu come in as a jumbo Tyden. He's got some good athleticism for for a tackle and I know that doesn't matter that much for as far as jumbo Tyden's go. The issue though is that if you have Roger Gileam in there and if you're adding Caleb Lomu as a jumbo Tyden everyone knows what you're doing it's so predictable at that point so they've got to prove that they can run the ball even when they're not showing they're going to run the ball. All right last thing here just looking at this game Doug and we're talking to Doug Kite of

26:07Boston Herald and Pat Chatt podcast if this game goes well for the Patriots what has to happen and then I'm going to ask you the opposite. I think for it to go well I think they've got to get some big plays they've got to generate big plays I know there's some some question marks right now with the C.O.K. Secondary or anything that it's possible that that some of those could be explored a little bit just based on all of the weapons the Patriots have but you know whether it's a big play on defense big plays on offense I don't think they're going to win a knife fight against the C.O.K.S out there I think it's got to be explosive plays we've got to see that same explosive play potential that that they had last year and if it does not go well where is it going to not go well I think it'll probably not go well in certainly the run game on offense but if the Patriots aren't able to generate any pressure against the C.O.K.S which is a illegitimate threat it's a legitimate possibility because of those issues that they've got on the edge

27:10they can generate pressure up the middle with Milton Williams and Grishenbar more they can generate pressure using blitzes which they did heavily last season but just traditional foreman fronts I think they're going to have trouble there and if you have darnled too much time and he's able to find Smith and Jigba and all the other C.O.K.S weapons I think it could wind up being a long day for the for the Patriots and obviously a massive factor in that as well is if Christian Gonzalez is on the field and it is funny because that obviously gives Christian Gonzalez more leverage in these contract talks as well like your team could not generate pressure pressure without blitzing last year you can't blitz if you don't have Christian Gonzalez out there taking on Jackson Smith and Jigba one on one so yeah I think that just some some issues in the passing game could pop up given the the past rush issues and I think that's a way the Patriots could lose this game all right tell folks where they can find you and anything you got coming up including any shows you're doing while you're here yeah for sure we're doing a show in Seattle at four

28:12o'clock at fuel sports bar and grill it's in the ballerad area so come out to see us there we're going to be doing like a live podcast for a few hours but also go to bossonherald.com Doug Kyd I'm the only Doug Kyd in the world so find me on Twitter Instagram wherever and then yeah I've got the Pat Chat podcast and my buddy Michael Hurley on the CLNS media network so that's where he can find me him all over the place appreciate it Doug it travels safe and thanks for joining us for sure anytime Ron all right that was Doug Kyd of the Boston Herald and Pat Chat Doug's awesome not only see from the Northwest which is bonus but he knows he knows the team he knows the team he's a pro and follows them inside and out so a lot of interesting parts there and you know I expect Christian Gonzalez to play I think that's all noise I do think the Travian Henderson thing is news and something to keep an eye on it does not seem like he will play I think that's a pretty big deal the fact that Herald Landry is not available I hadn't gotten to the point

29:14where I dug into all this until really yesterday and that he's on PUP their edge rush group is not good and I think it's also questionable from a setting the edge run defense perspective so the Patriots defense I have the most questions going into this game about how the Patriots defense is going to hold up against the Seahawks offense I have more areas where I think the Patriots offense can potentially make it tough on the Seahawks defense then then when the Patriots are on defense so that's that's where this this game is starting to crystallize for me in terms of the matchups and this could be oddly a little bit of the opposite of last year in the opener when the 49ers managed to really hold down a confusing Seahawks offense that did not look anything like the offense from the rest of the season they only have one play action attempt they were in shock and all the time they were running a bunch of quick play screens that were going nowhere never looked like that

30:18again the rest of the year thank God and it was a close game and ultimately you know the the 49ers were able to pull it out but it was a low scoring game it wouldn't shock me if this is a higher scoring opener if we're talking about a 30 to 25 kind of game versus a 17 14 kind of game like the one last year or 17 13 I think it was because the Seahawks would have been potentially looking at a field goal if it was 17 14 anyway so I want to share a couple more quick things I'm going to have to run here in a little bit because Sam Darnold is doing his press conference and a little bit about a half an hour and I got to drive down to the V-Mac to be there for that if you have not you're going to want to sign up for patreon.com slash Hawk blogger I am putting all my locker room interviews up there I'm also putting them up for everybody else but if you want ad free a locker room interviews all year you're going to want them there I'm starting to put them up I found a way to do this that I can sustainably do it where I'm doing the individual interviews as well as all the interviews in a block

31:21so you can you know listen to just one at a time if if that's what you'd like and let me know if anyone has challenges with that but sign up there we're definitely getting a lot of patrons and that's great to see but before we I'm gonna share one thing before I go I'm pretty excited about this probably more excited than you guys are going to be about it but I've been working on my first tail the tape for this game which is when I do a like the actual written preview and I've been able to dig into the FTN data that I've got now the sumer data that I've got now and stylize this stuff and I think a way that's a little bit better you saw a couple examples I'm going to show you first glimpse before I even publish it tomorrow I'm going to show you first glimpse of these new graphics and what they tell us all right before we do that let's hear a few things

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33:25anything going on there as well as identity theft recovery and online fraud insurance plus you get identity theft protection from all the places you might need and you can get an individual plan I'd recommend the family plan because if it's your wife or your husband or your kids you can get five adults covered on the family plan and have total peace of mind. One scam can cost you everything protect yourself now the first 100 users get 20% off with code hot blogger at Coveron.com slash hot blogger that's Coveron.com slash hot and if you have not you're going to want to download price picks link is in the description of the video new users play $5 to get $150 and bonus lineups if you use code HMA have some fun make sure you can do it responsibly over at price picks go to do to coffee dot co do to coffee dot co another one of my sponsors who's working with us charitably we are closing in on our first sales milestone we're really close so if you want

34:27to get the best coffee you want to get some merch like this hat that I'm wearing that I love you want to support Cooper Cup and anacop and the this this business that they are building with the Isaiah O'Hata and his family do to coffee dot co use code hot blogger 12 for 12% off all that is over there okay thanks to our sponsors thanks you thanks to all of you for supporting our sponsors all right so let's let's do a little bit of show and tell I'm not going to go deep because I'll probably go deeper on this tomorrow morning but here's a quick perusal of some of the new graphics I will be sharing with you in every week on tail the tape and this is a look at where the sea ox and the patriots match up here is the first one this is kind of looking at the overall the overall match up between these two teams so you can see here that's I've got points per game

35:32points allowed point differential turnover differential the rankings in the NFL for each of those teams who has the advantage and then efficiency net EPA per play so this is EPA per play on offense subtracting EPA play per play little let's try that again EPA per play on offense subtracting EPA per play on defense and then you get the net which is a nice little efficiency metric overall and so you can see the sea hawks were fifth in that EPA per play the patriots were actually first so anywhere where the sea hawks have the advantage you're going to see a green bar anywhere they don't will be red it happens to be a coincidence that this week is a team with the color red so it also reads a little nicely there I'm pretty sure I'll keep it as red for bad regardless of which team they're facing but maybe we'll use team colors we'll see net escape rate this is the the number that I introduced to you all earlier this week really yesterday with Jeff Simmons on sea ox Saturday this is how good teams are at basically staying in a staying away from obvious past

36:39situations on offense and then also how good are they at forcing obvious passing situations on defense and net escape rate subtracts one from the other so this is kind of an overall view of how good you are at early down offense and early down defense so think about that differently than third down offense and defense and so sea hawks were seventh in this the patriots were six I think this is an interesting number this is a new stat that I novel stat I think I'm the only one that's invented this I'm going to be tracking this all season and I'm curious so that's part of why it's there you can ignore it if you'd like and then we've got DVOA from FTN fantasy which by the way use code hbam at ftnfantasy.com gets you 10% off there and so total DVA um sea ox were first patriots were eighth offensive DVOA sea ox were tenth the defense is see uh patriots were third

37:41um defensive DVOA sea ox were first patriots were 22nd um special teams DVA sea ox were second patriots were 12th so you know this is one little overview metric I'll show you kind of how the other ones are going to look this is an example of the sea ox passing game we've got all sorts of stuff there including catchable throw rate interception worthy throw rate uh the pressure rate quick pressure rate uh EPA per play when blitzed um all that stuff in plus we've got personnel grouping stuff in here now and how often they're using these different personal groupings I've also added this I think a very cool new graphic um I'm very happy about this stuff I admit with looking at the receiving so this is looking at how teams perform against man and zone and how they defend when they're in man and zone coverage also which are the best and most targeted types of routes

38:42for and offense you can see for the sea hawks here last year it was the crossing route the post route and the pivot route and you can see how the patriots were at defending those routes um and then also the screen game which I think it's going to be important how often were they using the screen game and how good were they in the screen game when you look at the run game you're going to get a bunch of these numbers yards before contact yards after contact power success stuffed rates these are all new and then also personnel stuff there how were they at running in those situations and then this one is a pretty cool additional one that I've added this year which is just the style of offense how often do they use play action how good are they when they use play action shotgun rate screen rate again no huddle rate so this is kind of a pace of play rate um and then run concepts outside zone inside zone man power how do they rank in those situations um and then I've got

39:42all that on defense as well which I'm not going to share I'll share that mostly tomorrow and then special teams and getting into the special teams rank so we're going to have a lot of fun this year kind of getting into all of these um all of these graphics uh I see someone says that they're kind of small is there a way to make the font bigger well it depends on what screen size you're on if you're looking at uh this on your phone potentially uh but these are going to be made for uh my web and for the articles I'll be writing so they'll fit right into that and you can always zoom in as you wish but uh yeah um excited about the data and we can uh we can do a little bit of zooming uh when I cover those more in detail later uh I see a question here about whether I'm doing a podcast with Rob since he flew in from the UK he's actually going to the apple cup today I'm hoping to get him over to the v-mac tomorrow we're working on that so we'll see if we can work

40:44something out but uh at very least I will definitely see Rob uh he's gonna be coming out to dinner with myself and some of the folks that support this podcast on Tuesday night so I'm looking forward to seeing him one way or another thank you for from Michigan see hawker for the jewels go team appreciate those and yeah that'll do it I gotta run over to the v-mac until I talk to you next happy line