Democrats’ long-shot bid to flip Alaska’s Senate seat

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Hey there, it's the MPR Politics Podcast.

I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

And I'm Dominican Montenegro Senior Political Editor and Correspondent.

And Alaska Public Media's Liz Ruskin is here with us today. Hi, Liz.

Hi, Miles. It's great to be here.

I'm so excited to have you here in studio with us.

Ahead of this year's midterm elections, we are looking at interesting races.

So you all probably guessed it today.

We are focusing on Alaska, a red state that Democrats are hoping to pull off an upset in the Senate race this November.

So let's just start there, Liz.

This is a race, this Senate race that has an incumbent.

What can you tell us about Republican Senator Dan Sullivan?

Well, Dan Sullivan, when he got into politics, I would say he was a George W. Bush Republican.

He served in the State Department under the Bush administration.

And he's evolved.

He was skeptical of President Trump at first.

A candidate Trump in 2016 when the Access Hollywood tape came out.

He called on Trump to get out of the race.

But now he's cleaving closely to Trump.

What issues, I guess, are important to him or that do you think that he's going to campaign on this year?

Well, his big issue, and this isn't surprising, it's developing Alaska's resources.

He recently gave a big speech to the Alaska legislature and annual address.

And he just railed against Biden, the Biden administration, President Biden's been out of office for quite a while now.

But he is still running sort of against Biden and all of the measures he took to conserve federal land in Alaska.

Which is very different than what most Democrats would run on in a state like Alaska,

we're talking about a lot of conservation efforts, small businesses or small fisheries in this case, right?

With Mary Peltolo who's the Democrat running on fish, family, and freedom.

Yeah, right, that is like fish is a huge part of Mary Peltolo's initial campaign.

But let's start with her, I guess, bigger picture.

I feel like Mary Peltolo is somebody we've been talking about on the podcast for years.

Am I crazy?

Well, since 2022, it's interesting because before 2022, she had a very little name recognition in Alaska.

She ran to replace our long term congressman, Don Young, when Mr. Young died.

And so in 2022, she won the special election and also that year won the regular election.

And the race got a lot of attention because Sarah Palin was in it.

And then she ran in 2024 again and lost that election, is that right?

That's right.

Gotcha. And then she, the Democrats basically convinced her in 2026 now to run for this Senate seat.

It feels like Democrats are optimistic about their chances in Alaska.

But this is a state that Donald Trump has won by more than 10 percentage points every time he's run in a presidential election.

Dominico, do you see this race as actually being competitive?

I do. I think a political report classifies it as a lean Republican race.

And that's notable because a place like Texas, which we spent a lot of time talking about,

is at this point a likely Republican outcome still.

I mean, depending on what happens in that runoff and which candidate comes out of that.

But a place like Alaska is just a different kind of place overall.

Candidates really matter.

The ranked choice voting system that they have in the state matters, which means that you're going to wind up

potentially with less extreme candidates overall.

And this is also somebody who now has some statewide name recognition, name ID and money are the two most important things in politics,

and neither are going to be lacking in this race.

Because of its priority as one of those states that potentially a Democrat could knock off a Republican,

you know, this is a place that's going to see a lot of outside spending as well.

But if you just think about it from a raw political standpoint, in 2024, Mary Peltola lost her race by three percentage points.

Donald Trump that same year, presidential year, where Trump is at the top of the ballot, one by 13 points.

So she already out ran Trump by 10 points.

And the headwinds this year are much more in Republicans face than it is in a year when Trump was able to win the presidential election.

Yeah, but it is really hard to imagine that in Alaska, you know, a Democrat just does not unseat an incumbent Republican.

Unless that Republican is under indictment, as we saw with previous holder of the seat, Senator Ted Stevens,

it's just hard to imagine that a Democrat is going to unseat an incumbent Republican.

But yeah, we don't know.

So Dominican alluded to Peltola kind of putting fish as a big part of her initial campaign message.

What else can you tell us Liz about her campaign strategy or how she's planning to make the case to Alaskans?

Yeah, she has this slogan, fish family freedom and it's a popular sentiment. Alaskans love their fish, especially salmon.

She's pitching herself as an Alaska first moderate.

Lately, her messages have been kind of anti incumbent.

She's talking about self-dealing politicians and yeah, she's putting some distance between herself and national Democratic figures.

And she's not directly criticizing President Trump at this moment, which, you know, you can imagine why in a Trump plus 13th state.

So she's, you know, really aiming for middle ground.

I think one of the things I've been a little unclear on is Alaska's broader political demographics.

Because this is a state before Peltola won in 2022, a Democrat hadn't won that house seat in something like 50 years or something, right?

Right, because the same guy held it for 50 years.

But yeah, but it's so is Alaska becoming more purple?

What is happening, I guess, that make Democrats look at this as a potential pickup opportunity?

Well, I think that Alaska's brand of Republican is more libertarian than religious ideology driven.

So I think that maybe it appears more purple because the Republican party has moved ever Trump word.

Yeah, and the people who live in the state don't necessarily go, you know, with the current if we're going to use a fish metaphor, right?

And this is a place where people kind of take pride in going against the grain of going upstream, if you will, and being different than the lower 48.

And it's a very rural place.

People have a strong like survival list mentality.

Alaska is a very big state. I mean, if you were to lay it over the United States, I mean, it's, you know, roughly a quarter to a third of the continental United States, depending on how you look at it on a map.

I mean, it's a big, big place.

And I have to say whenever an Alaskan runs into someone from Texas, we're contractually obligated to say that if we cut Alaskan half Texas would be the third largest state.

I'm sorry, I just have to say that.

So, you know, outside of the population centers of like Anchorage and Juno, you know, you're going to have a whole lot more people covering a whole lot more territory.

And I think that that just, it does something different, I think, to you as a person and how you think about the world. I don't know what you think Liz.

Well, 80% of Alaska's communities are off the road system. That means you have to fly in or in a few cases you can take a ferry.

And Mary Peltola comes from one of those communities. She comes from Bethel, which is on the Cusca Quim River.

It's a hub community where salmon has traditionally been the mainstay of the culture and the economy.

And those fish runs are in, you know, massive multi-year decline.

So, that is where that phrase fish family freedom has a lot of resonance for people.

I'm curious about how President Trump is going to come up in this race. He's obviously not on the ballot. It's a midterm election year.

But I have to imagine Peltola is probably treading lightly on being an anti-Trump Democrat in a state that has gone for President Trump three different presidential years.

And at the same time, I'm curious how Dan Sullivan is going to portray his relationship with the President considering the President's low approval ratings right now.

How do you see President Trump playing into all of this?

Well, as I said, Sullivan gave a big speech to the Alaska legislature recently.

And he said President Biden's name, former President Biden's name a dozen times, and hardly mentioned Trump at all, maybe two or three times.

But he has stuck very close to President Trump's positions on everything, rarely votes against him.

Did one vote on health care that was against President Trump's position, but it was a vote that we all knew was going to fail and it did fail.

So it wasn't, you know, all that meaningful of a vote.

But he seems to be taking great pains to not cross Trump.

He has Trump's endorsement in some of his campaign literature.

Trump's head was featured larger than Dan Sullivan said.

Wow.

And Peltola, I guess, do you have any sense on whether she is going to go full in on an anti-Trump message or if she is going to broaden it out?

No, she's going to portray herself as someone who can work with anyone.

And there were obviously a lot of Trump voters who voted for her in 2024.

And why would she want to lose them?

All right.

Let's take a quick break and more on all of this in just a moment.

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So Liz, Democrats are hanging a lot of hope on this race in Alaska.

Does that mean there's going to be a lot of money spent as well?

So, so much money.

It's going to be just millions and millions of dollars.

The population is just over 737,000 people.

Only DC Vermont and Wyoming have fewer people in them.

You can just imagine the amount of money per person that is going to be spent on this race.

It's just going to be so much money that I'm not sure it really is going to be all that effective.

Well, that's something that we've seen in the last several elections cycles.

I feel like Democrats have poured so much money into so many of these races,

whether it's Senate or presidential elections, and really haven't been able to kind of get over the hump in a lot of places,

or at least a return on investment, hasn't been equivalent to the amount of money that winds up going in.

It's almost like you get to a certain point that it's so saturated that there isn't really much more that you can do in these places.

And when every single ad during the local news is now political ads,

there's only so much more that you can put on those airwaves.

Though I am curious, I mean, in a midterm election year where turnout is so much lower than in a presidential race,

does the money matter more? I don't know if there's data on this,

but I guess I have to imagine that things like get out the vote efforts matter even more in a sort of low turnout environment than in a higher turnout environment.

Well, and I would imagine in a state like Alaska where you have people further apart from each other,

that the GOTV efforts are a lot more complicated and more difficult.

Yeah, and you have to think about things like the Save Act, which if it were to pass, which is not likely,

but it was supposed to go into effect in time for the midterms,

or the recent Supreme Court case that was argued this week,

if they make it harder to vote by mail, that could really have an impact in a place like Alaska.

Also Liz, is Alaska exclusively vote by mail?

Oh, no, not at all. About half of voters vote in person.

The others either vote by mail or they vote early in person or some other method.

But this Supreme Court case is about whether you can count ballots that arrive after election day,

and Alaska allows 10 days for ballots to arrive after election day.

So if the Supreme Court says that no, you can't do that, all ballots have to be in by election day.

That is not only going to affect mailed ballots in Alaska,

but there are villages in Alaska where you vote, and they put the ballots in the mail,

and they arrive hopefully within 10 days.

Also, I guess I'm curious about President Trump's constant railing against mail voting.

Do we see a Republican like Dan Sullivan?

Has he distanced himself from those sorts of messaging considering how critical vote by mail is to that state?

I have not heard him address voting by mail,

but yeah, he has not alleged that there's anything wrong with it.

Got it. While we're on the topic of Alaska's election system,

the other kind of cork I guess I could call it is,

Alaska uses an open primary system and ranked choice voting.

Liz, can you explain what both of those things are and how it works to vote in Alaska?

Oh, can I? I have spent years explaining this.

This is your moment.

In 2020, Alaska voters decided to change their election system.

We now have an open nonpartisan primary,

that's where all the candidates appear on the same ballot,

and the top four of any party or no party,

advanced to the general election.

The primary is pick one.

The general election gives you a chance to rank them.

And as a rule of thumb,

everything that people think they love or hate about ranked choice voting in Alaska

is actually about the open primary.

The open primary makes a huge difference

and ranked choice voting,

there are very few instances where it come from behind candidate

has been put in the number one spot through ranked choices.

A lot of advocates talk about Senator Lisa Murkowski

as being an example of success of ranked choice voting

or of this open primary system.

Can you explain, I guess,

the connection between Murkowski and this voting system?

Every time that she votes against one of President Trump's priorities,

I see on social media people saying,

primary her, primary her,

and I think, ah, you are not from Alaska,

because you would know that you can't really primary someone like that.

Senator Murkowski picks up in the primary,

she gets the votes of people from all over the political spectrum

and then in the general,

in the last one,

there was a relatively weak Democratic candidate,

she had no campaign to speak of.

And so a lot of Democrats voted Murkowski number one.

Some of them voted for this relatively unknown Democrat

as number one and Murkowski as number two,

but that doesn't matter.

A Democratic candidate does not act as a spoiler in that situation.

And when you say you can't primary her in the traditional sense,

I just want to make sure this is clear.

So that's because there's no sort of partisan primary process

where somebody can run to the right or to the left of a candidate, right?

Because everyone, you get a ballot that just has like a dozen or more names on it,

is that right?

Sometimes there's like a dozen names.

Or if there's only a few,

it's just not likely that the person named Murkowski is not going to finish somewhere in the top four.

She really can't lose a primary.

In most races,

people who are running serious campaigns are going to make it into the top four.

There aren't that many people who run usually now.

Our governor's race is an exception.

And the original race that Mary Peltola won,

there were, I believe, 49 candidates,

and she won that primary.

Liz mentions Murkowski, and I think that it's so important in thinking about her

and thinking about the profile of Alaska itself,

and why Mary Peltola potentially upsetting a Republican is possible,

because I think Lisa Murkowski has proven that anything is possible in Alaska.

I mean, she in 2010 became the first 750 years to win a right in campaign.

To do that statewide is a near impossibility,

and she was able to pull it off.

And the fact that that happened, I think a lot of people look at,

yes, her name is Murkowski, people knew her, knew her dad.

That name has been around for a long time in Alaska.

But, you know, I think that it signifies how important candidates matter

in a lot of these places where in particular this year,

Democrats are on their heels in trying to compete in places that were won by Donald Trump.

You know, the seven of the 10 races that are rated either toss up lean or likely

by the Cook Political Report are places where Donald Trump won in 2024.

So, to be able to win or be able to compete in those places,

you need candidates who match the profile of the state very uniquely.

Last thing on the Ranked Choice Voting Point is this potentially could be the last election cycle.

That's run using this open primary in Ranked Choice Voting System, right Liz?

Yeah, Alaskans will have a second chance in November to repeal Ranked Choice Voting.

This has tremendous appeal to conservatives and Republicans who really do not like Ranked Choice Voting.

And their inability to get rid of Lisa Murkowski is a prime reason, you know,

she's like the poster child for why conservatives do not like Ranked Choice Voting in Alaska.

So, that repeal measure will be on the ballot.

And I think that among other things, it gives Republicans and conservatives a real reason

to go to the polls in an election when President Trump won't be on the ballot.

This is something that was on the ballot in 2024 and it failed then.

Is there any reason to believe that it would have a better chance at succeeding this time around?

Oh, it just barely failed and the repeal campaign was beset with problems of their own making for the most part

and well-funded repeal campaign certainly has a good chance of passing.

Well, and, you know, a midterm election year is really an activist election.

I mean, they're lower turnout events generally, so the people who are most wanting to go out and vote.

And if this repeal measure gains a huge following among conservatives, which it already has some,

if that drives voters to the polls, you're going to, you wind up with this sort of two-ended thing where,

yes, you have Ranked Choice Voting, yes, you wind up with more moderate candidates for the most part across the country.

But you're going to wind up in a midterm year, have sort of the most activist parts of the bases be the most fired up to want to go vote.

Democrats want to flip this seat. Republicans want to be able to repeal Ranked Choice.

I think that on the right, low propensity voters will be especially motivated to come out to repeal Ranked Choice Voting.

They don't like it. It's newfangled. They're suspicious of the way the votes are counted. They don't like it.

And I think it would give a lot of, you know, more cynical, skeptical people, especially on the right, a reason to get out to the polls and vote.

Yeah, it's pretty unlikely that repeal wins and Peltola wins.

But if that were something that were to happen, you could chalk it up as one of the weirder outcomes of 2026.

That's Alaska, baby.

All right, let's leave it there for today. Liz Ruskin, thank you so much for joining us and good luck with all the Senate TV ads you're going to have to watch over the next seven months.

Thank you.

I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

And I'm Dominic Montenore, Senior Political Editor and Correspondent.

And thank you for listening to the MPR Politics Podcast.

This is our glass of this American life. Do you know our show?

Okay, we'll be the way I'm going to tell you about it.

We make stories that hopefully pull you into the beginning with funny moments and feelings and people in surprising situations.

And then you just want to find out what is going to happen and cannot stop listening.

That's right. I'm talking about stories that make you miss appointments.

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