Deterrence by Punishment

Jacob Shapiro sits down with Jacek Bartosiak, founder of Strategy&Future, to discuss Russia’s drone incursions into Polish airspace and their broader implications. From Warsaw’s perspective, deterrence has failed, pushing debate toward a “politics of punishment.” Bartosiak outlines the fracturing of NATO credibility, the rise of an Intermarium bloc from the Baltics to Turkey, and Ukraine’s surprising military innovations. Together, they explore how Poland, Ukraine, and regional allies may reshape Europe’s security landscape amid U.S. retreat.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction

(00:22) - Current Geopolitical Tensions in Poland

(01:07) - Historical Context: The Intermarium Concept

(02:04) - Polish Perspective on Western Media

(02:58) - Russian Drone Incursion into Poland

(05:41) - Poland's Strategic Debate and NATO's Role

(10:40) - Ukraine's Military and Strategic Position

(14:21 US-European Relations and Trump's Policies

(24:55) - Future of NATO and Eastern European Alliances

(27:43) - Geopolitical Tensions in Eastern Europe

(28:35) - NATO's Role and Perceived Weakness

(29:43) - Poland's Strategic Position and Military Capabilities

(31:42) - Putin's Miscalculations and Regional Dynamics

(33:48) - Historical Context and Turkey's Role

(36:48) - China's Influence and Future Scenarios

(48:06) - Belarus and the Future of Eastern Europe

(51:39) - Concluding Thoughts on Regional Stability

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Referenced in the Show:

Strategy and Future - https://patronite.pl/p/strategy-and-future/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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