Do The Minnesota Timberwolves Have ENOUGH SHOOTING? | Potential Holes In Wolves' New-Look Rotation

0:00This is the Lockdown Podcast Network celebrating 10 years of your team every day. Thank you for making Lockdown your first listen every day. For your second listen, find the Lockdown NBA Podcast where there's no offseason. West Matt and Hayes keep you up to date on contract negotiations, rumors and everything you need to be the most informed NBA fan. Find Lockdown NBA on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. The Tim Wolves added Lamello Ball to make Anthony Edwards life easier on offense, but is there enough shooting on this roster? Why could be a concern next? Next. You are locked on Timber Wolves, your daily Minnesota Timber Wolves podcast,

1:00part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello and welcome to Lockdown Wolves podcast. My name has been Beacon. I am the host of the daily Lockdown Wolves show Happy Wednesday, everybody happy hump day. And today in the show a lot to get to, we're going to talk a lot about the Wolves offense here to start in the rotation. And the, I guess really new look rotation for the wolves in a lot of ways, new look starting lineup, 40% of the starters are very likely to be just different new to the team this year. But my focus today is going to be on the shooting. And I have some concerns about where this offense could head. If the shooting isn't up to par a little bit later, we'll get into. I have some thoughts about why not very many people nationally have thoughts about the Tim Wolves. It's the wolves are flying a little bit under the radar, which is funny after the giant limelabal splash. But so much has happened since then. And the wolves aren't really being talked about national articles, predictions, shows, podcasts, etc.

2:01Explain what I mean by that. And my theory is to why that is. So we'll get to that a little bit later in the show. But I want to start today by talking about the Timber Wolves rotation and my concerns related to the wolves shooting. And here's what got me thinking about this. And we touched on it a little bit in the past. But I want to really dive in on some of the numbers and the guys who are expected to be part of the primary, you know, 9 to 11 man rotation depending on how Chris Finch does this thing this year. But we can start by just looking at the starting lineup. I mean, the Tim Wolves sent out a non shooter in Julius Randall and brought in another subpar outside shooting. And John, I think, come again, look, I think pound for pound, John, I think, come again is a better offensive player than Julius Randall or certainly has a higher ceiling. We'll be a better transition piece for the wolves. I talked about this at length here on the show that if the wolves actually play fast like they should. Come again is going to be a fantastic fit for this roster offensively. And I think better than Julius Randall, pretty, not I think I know he'll be better than Randall

3:05when it comes to playing in transition and playing fast. But if you actually look at the at the three point shooting numbers, it's he's not a dramatically better shooter. Right. Last year's 33% Randall was a little under that. He was like 32%. But the year prior and golden state is 30% the year before that he's 32.1%. So for his career, he's 33%. I mean, Julius Randall for his career is 33%. They're essentially the same. Now the volume for Randall's been higher over the last several years than it has been for Kamega. Obviously, Kamega's only, you know, not even quite. He's about to turn 24. So there's more upside there. Sure. And I think Kamega attacking a closeout is a little scarier than Randall attacking a closeout. Because Kamega may try and get to the basket, whereas Randall almost all the time was going to shoot from around, you know, the free throw line. So all that to say, I do think Kamega's a little bit more of an outside threat. But when it comes down to it, the wolves replaced one non shooter at the power for its bout with another and Jonathan Kamega. You still have ready to go bear.

4:05They replaced Dante, even Chenzone in the starting line, obviously because the injury with the memo ball, which will lift the wolves offens. But like you replaced a shooter with a shooter. Obviously, there's other stuff going on there. They're very, very, very different players. But we're talking about the shooting skill specifically here. So the starting lineup is virtually the same thing. It's the same thing that we saw the wolves have last year. And overall last season, Minnesota was 16th and three point attempt rate and sixth in percentage. When it was all said and done. So middle of the pack in terms of their three point rate and sixth in the league in terms of overall shooting three point shooting percentage. This is just the basketball reference number 37% as a team. That's just the starting five. Okay. Looking at the primary bench unit. I mean, the like no noz read, right? And obviously he's the big one. But you know, no, David Chenzone, the starting lineup. There's a trickle down impact there.

5:05There's no Mike Conley. And I, of course, was on the team at the end of last season, but not at the start of last season. So you look at the guys who saw the most minutes for last season's wolves. And I guess we could just look at minutes per game. I think it's probably the best way to look at it. We talked about this the other day when it's like five of the top nine. If you include Kyle Anderson, which is, you know, he's kind of right on the edge there since you only played in 19 games. But no Mike Conley effectively, no, David Chenzone, no noz read. And who are you bringing in to be in the rotation? Well, Cody Williams, who's a non shooter. And we'll talk more about Cody, but I mean, as an NBA player, he's 23.7%. Sub 24%. That's not good. Baron J is going to be part of the rotation. He's, he's your third big behind Rudy and Caminga and your third big last year's not as read. Who was a shooter? Jalen Clark is likely to get a crack at the rotation. Trail Isles is kind of an average three point shooter. And I would argue not that much worse than not as read.

6:05Doesn't have the range of nods or the quick release of nods, but not to that level. So set another way. No matter how you slice it. The top 12 players on this wolf's team are the aforementioned starters. Ball and Jalen Caminga, Rudy Gobert. Then your bench unit in some order. I would disown me. Trail Isles, TJ Shannon, Jalen Clark, you on Baron J. Cody Williams, bones, Highland of those guys of those seven bench guys I just listed. Three of them are non shooters. Baron J Clark and Williams. One is an average shooter in Isles. You Shannon is slightly better than that. Bones is slightly better than that. And those guys both have incredible range and have the respect of opposing defenses because of the range. And their ability to hit from really deep and really from anywhere. And quick releases off the dribble the whole thing. And then there's IO who of course was fantastic for about said the arc last year. Not quite the impact as a divin chenzo. I know the percentages really nice, but I don't think he quite as the gravity as divin chenzo does outside the arc when it comes to how opposing teams pay attention.

7:12But that's 12 guys. Five of the 12 are straight non shooters and I'll say one is league average and tray will tray, tray, tray liles. So is that enough shooting with how the wolves want to play? I mean, that's nearly half of the rotation. And there were moments where, you know, we didn't know what the wolves didn't have doing with the with the four spot, but had they brought in somebody who is a, you know, a better shooter than a coming. Or if they were going to keep Josh green and not, I understand that they traded him for cap reasons. We talked about that on the show. And Cody Williams is, it's a flyer, right? Like, let's see if Cody Williams turns into a 3 and D type guy. Can he be useful? Maybe. But Josh Green is unequivocally the better shooter. So greens out Williams is in some of the other power forward possibilities. We talked about earlier in the off season. That didn't come to fruition. You end up with Caminga, who's a non shooter. You replace Nas with Baron J. Who's a non shooter? You potentially have a bigger rotation role for Jalen Clark. He's a non shooter. Again, five of the 12. And if you want to call Jay Liles, you know, somewhere in the middle, five of the 12 are shooters, five of the, or six of the 12 are plus shooters, five of the 12 are not and Liles is in the middle.

8:21That I have some concern there. Now, of course, Steven Chenzoe. Hopefully he's back, you know, post all star break. Maybe it's March next year. And, you know, who knows what that looks like, but that'll certainly help. And then the other guy in the roster is the rookie Isaiah Evans, who's not at all going to be in the rotation at the start of the season or at any point likely the season. So what did, you know, compare that to last year's roster. Right. Compare that to the players. And if we just look at instead of minutes per game, sheer minutes played. Even Chenzoe, Nas Reed were both in the top six. Mike Connelly was eighth in minutes played. Those guys were plus three point shooters. I know Nas ended up right around league average by the end of the year. But before the shoulder was the thing, he was great. And two years ago, he was awesome outside the arc. Connelly was actually only 34%. But he was still treated with some respect outside the arc. Although that kind of deteriorated as the season went on. And then of course, Steven Chenzoe not being available, 38% outside the arc last year. But has a lot of respect for opponents.

9:22Those guys are all gone. So three of the top eight guys in minutes played, who were three point threats are no longer on the team or will not be playing at least in the case of David Chenzoe early in the season. And replacing them with non shooters gives me some concern. I want to talk about this in the context of the wolves rotation. Five man lineups really last year and what that could be this year. How Chris Finch could kind of maneuver those. Those five main groupings to try and get maximum shooting on the floor. And why that's super important with how I think the wolves are going to play this year. So we'll dig in on that here next as we look at the lineup data. The problem of finding clothes that you can live it all day, be comfortable and do whatever you need to do. Whether it's just chilling, go in the meetings, playing golf, being on the move. That problem has been solved by Kozirth. The everyday polo is the answer. It's lightweight, built to move with you just easy to wherever I've got it on right now. And it's fabulous.

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11:25All right. So Timberl's last season, if you look at their best offensive units. They're five main units and offense that had the most success on cleaning the glass. You'd have to go down to the fourth best offensive unit. We're talking about five main units that played at least 100 possessions together. There's a threshold that cleaning the glass uses. The top three all had only one non shooter. The top two were both Julius Randall as the non shooter. And then the third best offensive lineup had go bear as the non shooter. You have to go to the fourth best lineup that the team used last year to find one with both go bear and Randall on the floor together. That was a positive offensive unit. And it was bad defensively. It was weirdly. It was the Conley and not that weirdly, but Conley Edwards, Stephen Chenzoe. So a smaller lineup with no McDaniels. So it's the starter is minus McDaniels last season plus Mike Conley. Conley, Edwards, Stephen Chenzoe, Randall, go bear together. We're actually really good offensively, but bad defensively.

12:26And then you have to go down a couple more to find another one with both Randall and go bear. So really four of the top six offensive lineups last year only had one non shooter in them. And for the most part, the ones with go bear were all dominant defensively. Anyways, so who really cares, right? You get on a little further. And they're really actually weren't that many offensive units that had a ton of success with two non shooters, which shouldn't be surprising. Like actually, let's see. There's only three total that were above a 50th percentile offensively. And one of them of course was what became the standard starting lineup with Antiven Chenzoe, McDaniels, Randall, go bear, was slightly above league average offensively 54th percentile. And overall was really good because they were also above average defensively. But again, the point being it's difficult in today's NBA to function with an offense that has multiple non shooters.

13:26So you can have one, especially when that one is phenomenal defensively and also is a lot of threat, can play out of the dunker. And I do think we've talked about this before too, but Rudy's going to have a bit more unlocked offensively, which I know is a weird thing to say about a center on the other side of 30 who they don't run plays for and doesn't. It's not like he gets post ups, right? But because of Lamella's ability to throw labs because of his overall passing ability, I think Rudy's offensive game is going to be somewhat rejuvenated. People talk about him like he can't play offense, but he scored a little bit in Utah as it turns out, you don't really become an all star if you can't score in double figures. And he was a three time all star in Utah. So there is, I will maintain that Rudy is pretty good at catching labs above his shoulders. Passes below his chest are a challenge for Rudy. And that's not all that surprising, but I think playing with the mellow ball is going to do something for Rudy go bears game, whether it's in pick and roll or playing out of the dunker, but the rest of the floor then is spread if you've got other shooters.

14:29But as you start to kind of erode that with guys who are not good shooters like when Jalen Clark was parked in the corner last season with some of those different lineups, you're not going to have nearly as much success. And like Jonathan Camiga is obviously more of an offensive threat than say Clark, but he's teams aren't worried about Jonathan Camiga catching and pulling from the corners. They're just not offensively with Jalen Clark on the court. The wolves had some pretty good, some pretty good units offensively like one of them was Conley Edwards Clark, Randall and Reed. But again, that's only two non shooters with Clark and Randall like you're never going to three and finding any success offensively. I'm trying to find Clark go bear. Yeah, there's not like a Clark go bear Randall unit that played any number of possessions together and if they did, they weren't going to have any success. And I bring that up because Jalen Clark's probably part of this rotation Cody Williams like one of Clark or Williams is almost certainly going to be part of the rotation.

15:33I guess you could take them both out and say, okay, bones I oh Shannon Liles, Baron J and you're not playing either Clark or Williams, we may see that because obviously I own bones are better than those guys offensively Shannon gives you more offensively. If you need a little bit more size, then you're going to need Williams if you need more defense and physicality on that end of the floor, you're going to need Clark. But you have to be careful who they're playing with and now you don't have a big that's a stretch big. I know Camiga technically is because he can shoot threes and there's hope for Baron J like it wouldn't shock me if Baron J was shooting threes close to league average in a couple of years, but that's not happening early this season. And your big man rotation is effectively three non shooters. So are you going to play small with Jalen out there with Antonio and ball. Yeah, probably some or Shannon at the four. But if Clark's on the floor, he has to function as a four offensively. So the two ways you can get around this are playing small more frequently is one.

16:34The other one is just playing faster and getting more dunks in transition, getting more rim pressure in transition that then can lead to kick out threes, it can lead offense of rebounds in a broken four situation. And you know, catch a shoot threes out of that. I think that's entirely feasible and I think it's the right answer if you're a Minnesota and trying to unlock more offense. Well, actually having the less good shooters in the rotation with no deep in Chenzone and no noise read those are the two big ones, but also know Mike Conley. And I know Conley didn't shoot threes that well last year, but, but he at least was still a threat from there. Now, it's entirely possible that simply by having the mellow ball in the team, the three point percentage goes up. So if we get to April and the wolves, you know, our fifth and the league in percentage, I guess they were, they were six last year. They're caught top three and percentage outside the arc and that the frequency of the three point shots goes up the three point rate is better than 16th in the league like it was last year. You know, don't come knocking and be like, Hey, but Ben, you said unlocked on wolves that the wolves couldn't shoot threes and that was a concern.

17:40Look, I think that there's a real chance the percentage actually is higher simply because the mellow balls delivering the ball on time and on target and generating more three point opportunities overall for this team. Because Ant will get more catch and shoot threes where he's just one literally one of the best in the league and we look up his catch and shoot numbers over the last few years. He barely had catch and shoot opportunities last year. I think J. A. will get more open looks. I think I will get more open looks. I think TJ Shannon will just get more opportunity. So I think the frequency goes up, but I tend to think the percentage comes down a little bit and that's okay. I mean, if you if you are sixth and percentage and 16th and attempts. Make that eighth and percentage and 10th and attempts that's going to be better for you. The volume just simply needs to increase for the wolves and and just period it does. Obviously, it's better if the volume is low mellow and Ant and I would just soon move and J. A. and J. A. and me to the T. J. Shannon and not Jonathan coming in Cody Williams and J. A. Clark. There's a difference. It's not simply just shoot the first open three you can find. But I say this.

18:45I point this out to say that the volume needs to increase in balls going to help do that. And simply because he is a passing genius and he is. There will be more open shot more shots period more threes period and more open threes as well. And that's going to benefit the ants the J. A. and the I. O.s. the T. J.s. the Shannon's right. That's my take on it. I do worry a little about like I think they're a shooter short. And I think swapping Josh Green for Cody Williams hurts this year's team. Whether or not it's the 10th guy. I don't know. I don't know that that matters that much. In two years of Cody Williams turns into something which by the way, the wolves have to make a decision on his extension in like six weeks. And I don't think they're going to say yeah, let's add a fourth year on to this 10th overall pick that everybody thinks is a bust already. They could all he could have a good year and they could like him and try and bring him back, you know, on a on a minimum deal next year. After the rookie contract. But it's not exactly the same as the Nikhil situation.

19:47When it comes to contract and expectations and all that stuff at this stage all that say I understand why the wolves did it. I'm not saying it was a bad move. But for this year's roster, Josh Green is more beneficial than Cody Williams and that concerns me a little. And of course maneuvering can happen and we talked about we talked about it at the end of the show yesterday. The 15th roster spot is it Kevin love. Is it somebody else that can shoot three is like that would be nice. And in like trail isles has a partially guaranteed deal they could pivot there they could elevate it to way like they could do some stuff with roster flexibility. The buyout market you know once you get to the ladder third of the season the all star break like there's some minor tweaks the wolves could make to add more shooting. And we've talked about the numbers in charlotte with the mill of all was on the floor. He elevates the offense overall but especially three point shooting and rim attempts which are of course the most efficient shots. And I think that's that's going to happen this year in Minnesota. I just wish there was maybe one more shooter at the wolves disposal.

20:49Let's close today by talking about let's talk about why nobody is talking about the wall so explain what I mean by that next. Today's episode of like that wolves is brought to us by our friends at Odo. Running a business shouldn't feel like you're trying to connect a bunch of systems that were never designed to work together. One app for accounting another for inventory another for sales and somehow none of them talk to each other that's where Odo comes in. Odo is an all in one business management software that brings every part of your business together in one powerful platform from sales and accounting to inventory and marketing. Everything works in one place Odo is one platform to manage grow and scale your business the best organizations know that success isn't just about talent. It's about having everyone working toward the same goal and that's true in sports just like it is in business look the wolves are a great example of this ever since the new owners came in several years ago. Mark Lori now except regas and I know there's been a shift to Mark Stodd now recently but since that initial transition a rod still very much part of it and Lori still at the group.

21:50The wolves have had continuity that taking big swim swings like Tim Connelly who then took a big swing on Rudy go bear with the approval of the new ownership group keeping Chris Finch even though it was hired by the previous regime and backing him at every turn. The whole thing is continuity it's pulling on the same side of the rope that's huge it's it's it's across the board impressive as an organization and look that's not something we could have said for much of this franchise history great organizations win because operations matter and that's why you should get Odo Odo is one platform to manage grow and scale your business try for free today at Odo dot com slash locked on that's Odo Odo dot com slash locked on. All right so if you pay attention to the NBA blogosphere podosphere I know football is about to start but like you're listening to this show right now you're ready for basketball like I am we're a couple weeks out from media day and then training camp and then preseason and I mean sitting here right now we're what five weeks out five almost exact I think it's five weeks not six five or six weeks out from the start of the regular season like it's it's about to happen.

22:59And it's a little bit of a dead spot in the NBA calendar but there's all this kind of like early season prediction stuff we're going to get into player rankings by the way I talked about a couple weeks to add to submit my initial like which wolves I thought could be in the top under we talked about that on the show I think on Friday show I'm going to tell you. Give you kind of a heads up on my ranking that I'm submitting for the locked on top 100 and where I've got some guys we'll talk about that on Friday show but it's that time you write it's rankings it's previews it's it's a little bit of reckless speculation now that fragencies essentially over there's usually very few major moves at this stage in the off season I say that you know just under two years removed from the Randall townstray and there's obviously been other stuff in the past like go all the way back the James Harden trade happened in like early October I think. Crazy the the okay see Houston James Harden trade but it's that time here and there's a big article on ESPN that came out actually at this point it came out like over a week ago it's part of the summer forecast series that we've talked about on this show quite a bit but the article is which teams will surprise your disappoint plus biggest questions and it was a survey given to NBA insiders at ESPN.

24:15And basically it was like hey here's a bunch of questions vote on them the two rules are not mentioned at all in the voting. They eventually are when it talks there's a question about future champion like like I'll just read the question. The question was it was about whether or not there'd be a new champion this year because there's of course been a here we go will we get a different champion for the ninth season of course eight champions the last eight years. 19 people said yes only five said no. So five those five believe it's going to be one of the teams that won over the last eight years which of course includes okay see it includes the next from last year in Boston you know from a couple of years ago and. The pants this panel of voters thought that it's more likely that a ninth winner. Would emerge and then and then the article list the leading candidates to do so are the spurs of course you're in the finals last year the sixers the Tim rolls pastors and calves who've all been in the conference finals or better to trade Houston Miami and Atlanta all contenders looking to make a run next spring as well sure I I would buy that of the what 123456 like of the of the like 10 teams mentioned there the title winner probably comes from that group.

25:34That's the only temples mentioned in this article. Like there's there's which team will make a major leap there's eight teams listed there wolves are not mentioned disappointing teams five teams listed there wolves not mentioned by the way that ranking is Lakers pistons warriors heat Celtics I don't necessarily agree with any of that maybe heat and Celtics I think the Lakers are going to be decent but I don't think they're going to be significantly worse which is kind of what the sustain and same with the pistons I don't think they'll be as good as they were last year. I don't think they're going to tumble necessarily. And then a question about players requesting trades six players mentioned obviously no to rules there that's not a surprise which team is most likely to make a big move before the trade deadline there are nine different teams mentioned the wolves don't get any votes. And then some team specific ones about the next Lakers sixers etc which player on the new team will have the biggest impact the season no votes for the mellow ball is honest, quite Leonard LeBron James J. Lambron.

26:36So no wolves mentions there at all I also listen to late last week Charles Barkley was on the Bill Simmons podcast I don't believe unless I missed it I don't believe there was a single timbrels mentioned other than talking about when they messed up the draft in Barkley didn't exactly recall this correctly but they messed up the the Rubio Flynn Steph Curry draft he mentioned it is all two separate drafts obviously there's the same draft they picked Rubio and Flynn and passed on Steph Curry technically twice. That's the only wolves mentioned he don't they don't get brought up when you know Simmons even was kind of hunting for like well I you know Barkley was talking about the spurs and OKC and about how the next 10 titles five of them are going to come through or going to be OKC in San Antonio combined. And Simmons tried to push back into mention other teams and in the wolves were not brought up. It's it's it's a little confounding given the magnitude of the move the wolves made what 10 weeks ago back in late June and look I get it a lot has happened since then the LeBron fridge and see there's been a couple of bigger trades there's been some drama as there always is.

27:47And there seems to kind of be this consensus among people that. Either people it's like one of the other like people are like the wolves are just going to be consistently good again next year or their screwed because they traded for the mobile there's not a whole lot in between in terms of like the stuff. That I picked up on post trade and now everyone's just kind of like in this alright they're going to be good in in a tough west but it's going to be the spurs are OKC that's it. Which of course is silly because Denver Minnesota Houston all right there and the next year down is an awful you know the Lakers wears and I get that the depth of the east is actually probably better than the depth of the west but I would still say the top three or four teams in the west are better certainly than the top three or four in the east. The Nixon Philly and Detroit would all have something to say about in Boston would have something to say about that but I still would take the top four or five in the west versus the top four or five in the east. And I think it's just kind of this just a lot has happened and there's still a lot of people that are writing off from a low ball.

28:51Because of all because of you know reasons. We haven't seen play a success from the well of ball he hasn't he's not a couple of playing opportunities it didn't go great. But that's it. So I don't think it's fair and what's going to happen this year is the wolves will undoubtedly have a great offense and they'll have some success and the regular season and what will here is well wait till they get to the playoffs because the mellow won't hold up well we'll see. That's one of my if I was going to list concerns that's up there I would say even greater than like I don't think there's any question the fits going to work basketball wise it's a health question. And I don't have any off court concerns it's a health question and it's a. Physicality in the playoffs question which is related they're not independent of each other but they're related to each other. Anyway just something I noticed I just think there's not a lot of wolves chatter we'll keep an eye on that and that's okay. But it's unusual especially considering how busy the wolves have been this off season all right. So I got for it today like I said Friday we're going to talk about NBA top 100 we're not releasing the lockdown list yet but I'll talk about my thought processes I submit my vote

29:58for the lockdown NBA top 100 players list that'll be on Friday show and the next week we're back to daily Monday through Friday every day of the week the work week. Now through July of next year so get excited because it comes back next week on a daily basis big thank you for making lockdown wolves your first. Listen every single day of course this show is for you available everywhere that includes YouTube as well as all of your favorite audio platforms wherever you like to listen to podcasts you can find locked on wolves you can also watch. On the lockdown sports Minnesota app on both Roku and Amazon fired TV in our reminder if you'd like add free audio episodes you can sign up to be a member of the everyday club at lockdown wolves dot supercast dot com you also get access to the discord chat as well again locked on wolves dot supercast dot com of course locked that wolves is part of the lock down podcast network your local experts and all the biggest stories locked on is now the number one sports podcast network once again I'm been beacon this is the lock down wolves podcast we'll catch you next time. Thank you for making locked on your first listen every day for your second listen find the locked on NBA podcast where there's no offseason West mat and haze keep you up to date on contract negotiations rumors and everything you need to be the most informed NBA fan.

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