Does Donald Trump have an exit strategy for the war with Iran?

Al Jazeera Podcasts

Does US President Donald Trump have an exit strategy for the war with Iran?

He's reportedly under pressure to set a deadline, but with contradicting statements from his administration,

when will this offensive end?

And on what terms?

I'm Sami Zaidan, you're listening to the Inside Story podcast

where we dissect, analyze and help define major global stories.

Well, let's bring in our guests now, joining us from Washington DC is Adolfo Franco,

a Republican strategist and former advisor to US Senator John McCain.

In Tehran, for ad Izadi, professor at the Faculty of World Studies at the University of Tehran,

and Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson is in false church Virginia.

He's a retired US Army Colonel and former Chief of Staff for US Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Thank you all for joining us. If I could start with Adolfo,

so does Donald Trump have an off ramp to this war that you can see Adolfo?

Well, I think we're far from an off ramp. We're just went on the highway from that ramp.

Really, but Adolfo, how do we explain what Donald Trump said on March 11th?

The war will end soon. He said there's practically nothing left to target.

Well, let me answer that.

The president's initial comments and have been consistent have been that this conflict

would last four to six weeks.

Now, what the president said, what you're referencing is that we're ahead of schedule

on that four to six time frame that he gave in terms of the number of weeks

that we required to finish the job.

We haven't even been into this conflict for two weeks.

And we've eliminated Iran's air defenses. It's Air Force,

disseminated most of its navy, and of course have attacked its facilities that produce

and launch ballistic missiles and drones, which are significantly down.

Now, we'd ever underestimated the power of Iran to retaliate and to do what it's doing.

And that's why the president correctly said this is a four to six week operation

to get this job done, which it needs to be done.

Now, the job that's before the president is what's ongoing, which is neutralizing Iran's ability

to threaten its neighbors, of course, and world security through the development of a nuclear enrichment

that would lead to a nuclear bomb or bombs that it could use.

So the mission is very clear. On schedule, no one said this was going to be 12 hours

or anything of that sort. I think the president's been clear from the beginning.

Okay. How do you see this, Lawrence?

Is this the complete success that we hear from supporters of the president

when some of those milestones, which we just heard now from Adolfo,

things like the destruction of the Iranian Navy, it's Air Force, it's Air Defense Systems.

They weren't outlined as the goals of this war before the war started, right?

How can it be a measure of the success of the mission now?

I think we have been led down the Primero's path, so to speak,

with regard to the objects of this military operation, but both Bebe Netanyahu and Donald Trump,

I think they are worried right now, considerably, despite what was just said,

and let me call your attention to the speech by their Foreign Minister, the Israeli Foreign Minister,

Gideon Saar yesterday, wherein he, as much as admitted, some very substantial things.

One that Israel and implied was the United States are not going to cause regime change in Iran,

that the Iranian people are the only ones who can do that,

and my question at the moment in my own head was, dear man,

why have you spent billions of dollars in cost thousands of lives,

including school children and nurses and hospitals,

and blanketed 10 million people in Tehran with poisonous gas?

Why have you done that only to learn what most sane people knew?

Well, I had a time that you were not going to cause regime change in Iran,

so let me jump in as well.

And then the second thing he said in his attempt to explain why they weren't beating Hezbollah,

either, he tried to shift the blame majorly Donald Trump,

which I don't blame him a bit, because Donald Trump's staying power in this,

is extremely limited, because it is one of the most unpopular wars this country has ever engaged in,

and the American people were increasingly realizing that he's waging it,

primarily to get their attention off the Epstein scandal,

and he's not going to win it by any sense of that term,

so the American people are turning rapidly against this war,

including much of the MAGA group that elected him.

All right, I was going to try and jump in and pose,

but I could see that I think Adolfo is going to come back with some...

I have to say with all due respect,

this is a 1930s appeasement mentality.

First of all, President Trump has made it clear that what his objective war has not to have.

Well, let me finish.

Let me finish, Colonel, since you worked well in the last two years.

Let's just give him a chance.

I'll come back to you in a second.

This is the type of appeasement that, of course,

would have resolved World War II before it started.

Number one is the President's objective has been,

Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

That has been the key.

Now, why the defenses, I disagree with you,

where the defenses had to be eliminated is,

because we have to ensure that Iran is completely neutralized militarily.

That has been the objective.

Adolfo is an IAEA Secretary.

He did say he didn't have the evidence.

He can't have a country program to manufacture nuclear weapons.

Let me finish this MAGA discussion by a person who's obviously not even a Republican only in name.

85% of Republicans support President Putin by any other time.

So this is the fact, yes, you are.

Okay.

Let's try and focus on the issue and depersonize the discussion.

Adolfo, I'll give you the first person.

All right.

You know what?

Maybe it's a good time to bring in Fad Isadi into the discussion.

Fad, how has this been seen in Iran?

As Iran tries to read the pulse of the Trump administration,

is there a feeling in Iran that the Trump administration is looking for an off ramp?

You know, Iran did not start this war.

This is a war of choice by Trump and Netanyahu.

They were not worried about Iran's nuclear program.

Trump claimed a few months ago that he totally destroyed Iran's nuclear program.

And I suggest you read the intelligence communities report on Iran's nuclear program,

told together the head of the intelligence community presented that report to the Senate intelligence committee in the Congress.

The report is available online dni.gov.

It's in English.

Your other guests could read it.

The report says three things about Iran's nuclear program.

The first thing it says is that Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons.

The second thing it says that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon program.

And the third thing it says is that Iranian leaders have not decided to have a nuclear weapon program.

And when they asked Trump about this report of his intelligence community, he dismissed it and he decided to go with Netanyahu's version.

That's a bit of a background.

But now how does Iran look at the Trump administration's desire or lack of it to continue this war?

How is that read?

It's not very difficult.

They can stop attacking Iran.

As we are speaking, we are, I mean, Tehran, they are bombing us as we are speaking.

My father was here just a few minutes ago.

When I'm done with your program, I have to call to see if he reached this health safety.

They're killing 100, 200 civilians on daily basis.

We have lost over 1400 civilians.

So far, they can just stop attacking Iran.

And Iranian leaders will decide what needs to happen next.

You know, you have a reformist government in your position.

I think they don't, they didn't want to have this war.

A diplomatic solution was available.

This is a regime change operation.

And it's obvious you don't want to reach a diplomatic solution with the regime that you want to change.

This did not need to happen.

We have the Omani Foreign Minister saying an agreement was available within 24 hours.

And Trump attacked Iran less than 24 hours after that interview.

So they can stop attacking Iran from what he, what they hear from your guest in Washington.

They want to continue for the next four to six weeks.

Iran can continue.

There's this culture of resistance here.

We can do it also.

Okay. Let's, Adolfa, I know you want to get in, but just give me a second.

I want to give the Lawrence a chance and then we'll come back to Lawrence.

What do you make of the arguments that we heard and we hear from people like Adolfa?

Well, there were bigger issues at stake, whether it's Iran's missile program,

Iran's nuclear program that that was really Iran's relationship with its allies.

That was the real goal and that it's a complete success.

How do you read that?

Listening to Donald Trump in his people like Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, war,

one doesn't know what the objectives are.

As a military professional, I object extremely to that.

I can't believe that we're waging a war that is now costing.

I learned this morning, $5 billion a day.

We have a $40 trillion aggregate debt.

By the way, with a trillion dollar interest payments soon to be $2 trillion annually on that debt.

And we're costing the American taxpayer $5 billion a day with this war.

I suspect it's even more than that when you factor in all the elements involved.

And we've joined the homicidal maniac and usual in prosecuting this war

who has been nothing but a war criminal since the start of the campaign against Gaza.

And now he's in 11 and even deepening the war crimes.

Look at the war crimes we've committed already.

The school was a war crime.

The hospital was a war crime.

The facilities and proximity to Ron were a war crime.

Look what Iran did in response to oppose that.

They conducted a very precise strike on Haifa.

Haifa is now pretty much out of action as Israel's only remaining oil port.

Iran's conduct of this war has been as one can do in war,

mostly within the confines of what we've understood since the Nuremberg Tribunal

and the Geneva Conventions as the way civilized people,

and I emphasize that, should conduct war.

Our conduct has been absolutely the opposite of that,

with war crime after war crime.

And we don't seem to have any compunction about it whatsoever.

Okay, let me give Adolfo a chance to come in.

But I want to put this message to you.

When you send him, I want to go Adolfo.

I'll give you some time.

But just think about the question this way,

was when you were referencing the off-ramp,

that we've heard, have we not heard confusing messages

from this Trump administration about what the measure of success might even be

in order for there to be an off-ramp?

You might remember, I'm sure you do, on June the 25th,

Donald Trump said US strikes had obliterated the nuclear program,

but he also said it set it back decades,

and didn't even have time to move anything out of those sites.

On February 21st, US envoy Steve Whitkopf says Iran was probably a week away

from having industrial-grade bomb-making material.

And three days later, Caroline Levitt, the White House spokesperson,

says, well, the attack did in fact obliterate Iran's nuclear facilities.

So what is it?

What is the end goal here that could measure

an exit or an off-ramp?

Is there a clear one?

Yes, I just repeated it.

And that is that to neutralize Iran militarily in the next four to six weeks,

that's number one.

To ensure that Iran can never develop a nuclear weapon,

Iran has now refined by its own admission uranium to 60 percent level.

It's very easy to get to 90 percent.

You don't need more than 20 percent for peaceful purposes.

So it's bent on a path to develop nuclear weapons.

But this is a regime, since the other guests were saying about war crimes,

that's eliminated 32 of its own, 32,000 of its own people,

and peaceful protest.

That's the right.

How do we know those numbers?

Where do we get those numbers from, Adolfo?

Those are, I think, reported internationally by humanitarian organizations

and harassment.

That's amazing.

Since we have two people, since we have two people.

Okay, for Adolfo, let's give Adolfo a chance to finish the thought.

Sorry, for Adolfo.

Let me just give Adolfo a fair chance.

For Adolfo, we will come to you.

Bear with me.

Go ahead, Adolfo.

I did not interrupt the two other guests who are supporting Iran.

So I want to support my position here for a moment and be able to speak.

Yes, thousands of people have been killed by the Iranian regime, their own people.

Of course, human rights, this is an organization that's been conducting terrorism in the region

and supporting state-sponsored terrorism for really 47 years.

That's very clear.

It's attacking American soldiers.

It's killed.

It was behind the US's cold attack and the rest of it.

So to defend the Iranian regime, that is a threat to world and regional security.

To me is unbelievable that certainly any American could support that.

Keep in mind that the guests from the United States worked for a Secretary of State that he's concerned about money

that spent trillions of dollars and a war effort that failed to occupy Iraq and Afghanistan and lied in the United Nations about weapons of mass destruction.

So this is a curious turn of events on this.

But the fact before us today, this off-ramp, we're on the ramp.

We're on the way to four to six weeks to eliminate this regime.

Mission accomplished.

Yeah.

Okay.

That was under your watch.

All right.

Let's give five.

Let's give five.

Let's go fly the chance to.

Mission accomplished.

You have.

You have.

You have.

We accomplished.

Okay.

Gentleman.

You will have time to come back.

A mission accomplished.

Just to you.

Just to you.

Just to you.

Just to you.

Let's have two guests representing Iran here.

So you.

You have the mission accomplished was a statement by President Bush to your viewers now.

Understood.

Understood.

Secretary Paul and Mr. Wilkinson worked for the president that said that.

The difference is President Trump will accomplish the mission.

And then.

That would even been in two weeks into this conflict.

Our mission here is to destroy the military capabilities of a regime.

That is brutal barbaric to its own people and threatened security.

Okay.

You made that point.

Yeah.

Yesterday, I've given you.

I'm.

135.

I'm.

Mind up on a resolution.

We'll talk about that in a moment.

Let's go over to.

Five.

Just five.

One.

I know you want to come back in on some of those things.

But I do want to put a point to move the discussion along.

What will be Iran's position on a unilateral U.S.

Announcement of an end to the war?

Will Iran accept that and say fine.

If the U.S. says it's mission accomplished, we just walk away.

They need to make sure two things happen.

The first thing is that they want to make sure that the country is not attacked by two nuclear

regimes every few months.

You can not run a country when United States and Israel attack you.

Whenever they want illegally to.

How would Iran guarantee that?

They could say it.

The Trump could come and say that we are done with attacking Iran.

He could say that as long as I'm present.

What Iran trust the word of Donald Trump?

Given the history of.

That would help.

Trusting Trump would would would be a difficult thing to do.

But him saying it would be useful.

The second thing would be the creation of a set up to compensate Iran.

The Trump administration and not any of who have devastated Iran's civilian infrastructure.

They have killed thousands of innocent people.

They need to pay.

They need to pay Iran.

They need to compensate Iran.

And it could be done through leveling tax on ships going through a state of almost.

It could be done through different things.

But until they realize that changing Iran's government is a pipe dream.

They will try to repeat this huge mistake again.

Trump has managed to unite.

He has more than any Iranian politician could ever do.

They are basing their policies and ideas that are not going to work.

And they are killing a lot of people in the process.

Iran needs to make sure that this stops.

All right.

Very, very briefly.

I repeat briefly, Adolfo.

I want to give you a chance to answer one point before I go to Lawrence.

But please, very briefly.

Do you see any scenario and any parallel universe, shall we say?

And which the Donald Trump administration will accept those kinds of conditions from Iran?

Briefly, please.

Absolutely.

That is the most ludicrous statement I have heard from a totalitarian brutal regime.

The compensation will come with the elimination of the regimes.

Okay.

I mean, genocide and people.

You're, you're, you're, you're dictatorship turning on your own people.

And you're the dictatorship.

You're sponsored terrorism throughout the region.

All right.

It's a good time.

Now, let's take a moment to give Lawrence a chance to speak because he's been waiting patiently.

Lawrence, if the US would not accept those kinds of Iranian conditions to end the conflict, what are the options open?

You're somebody who has obviously a military background and experience.

Does, does the US move up the escalation ladder?

What are the next steps up the escalation ladder?

I don't know if you heard Senator Blumenthal the other day, but he was absolutely apoplectic when he came out of the intelligence briefing about possible ground troops on the, on the ground in Iran.

That would be an absolute disaster.

It would make Iraq and Afghanistan combined look like a cake wall.

Do you think that's serious where we could that?

Well, we could go there. Trump has said things like that.

And I'm hearing the rumors from the Pentagon that they are contemplating using ground forces.

This would be the ruin of the region and our presence there.

We would never be invited back as a war.

But let me just say one thing in particular.

I'm speaking on behalf of the Iranian people who are dying under our bombs.

I'm not speaking in behalf of the regime.

And I'm speaking on behalf of the American people who in poll after poll now,

and there were some comments.

That we can read that or we have people in the army.

The regitor such majorities is 75% of them, including many Republicans and many mega Republicans who are opposed to this war for very, very different reasons, but nonetheless, they're opposed.

They're right and the rest wrong.

Adolfe, let's finish the full adulthood.

Yeah, this is, this is the man that just spoke

who was working for the administration

that put ground troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.

This is the man that supported all the wrong

for all of us.

I shouldn't know how much of a stake it was, shouldn't I?

Well, this is the man, and this is the man

who has created the argument.

This was, this was the man who worked for the staff

who lied to the United Nations.

Now, here is the reality of what is going on.

Iran, Iranian people.

Iran has been behind terrorism throughout the region.

It is killing its own people,

and it is a threat to world security.

And President Trump's strategy is to neutralize it.

What will come next is up to the Iranian people,

and that's been very close.

I think you've made that, you will get him

over that point as we just got over.

We've got a brief minute left.

So I want to give for ad a chance to come back on this

for ad in 60 seconds.

These people live in pipe dreams.

Iranians are more united than ever.

They are coming to the streets every night in millions.

This is what Natan, you asked them to do.

But they're coming and shouting against Natan,

you who and Trump, and people like you, or other guests,

that are war mongers.

Iran has a solution.

Is Iran not also shooting itself to the foot

with the moves we've seen at the United Nations Security

Council?

A lot of countries lining up against Iran.

It's sad.

Iran did not want to see this.

They need to blame Trump and Natan,

you're hope for restarting this war.

We don't like even American soldiers get here.

These are young people with young families.

They shouldn't die for the Epstein class.

The Epstein class is killing little Iranian girls

and breaking little American girls.

OK, I'm afraid we are out of time.

I know that we would all love to continue this discussion further.

And I certainly have a lot more points,

but perhaps we'll all have the chance to come back

and the focus to come back and discuss this in goodwill again.

Thank you all to our guests, Adolfo Franco,

Farad Zadi, and Lawrence Wilkinson.

This episode was produced by Muhammad al-Ayeshi,

the Rahman Chelik, Laurent Peter, and Gemma Harris.

The studio's sound was by Centil Marimutu.

The program was edited by George Joseph,

Catherine Noohan, and Jodie Freyos.

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Coming up on the take, Iran names a new Supreme Leader

in the middle of a war with Israel and the United States.

Who is Moushtabah Hamanaim?

And what does his rise mean for Iran's future?

That's the take by Al Jazeera.

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