Duke Down 2 STARTERS - Are the Blue Devils Still the No. 1 Overall Seed? | Selection Sunday PRIMER!

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Duke looked awfully vulnerable against Florida State down to starters and now a door is

open for someone else to potentially take the top seed on Selection Sunday.

Welcome in to Lockdown College Basketball Squad Show.

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What's up, folks?

Happy Friday.

It is the final weekday before we have an actual bracket in our hands, folks.

Welcome in to the Lockdown College Basketball Squad Show.

I am your host, Andy Patton, also host of Lockdown Zags and Lockdown College Basketball.

Join today by my co-hosts on Lockdown College Basketball Isaac Shade, as well as Nick

Argonne of Locked on Purdue and JJ Jackson of Locked on Blue Devils.

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Well, Duke looked a little bit vulnerable there, locked in as the number one seed, but wasn't

their best showing against Florida State.

We're going to talk about how we think they're going to do going forward in the ACC tournament,

but it might mean for them in the NCAA tournament as well.

Also, are they the most vulnerable among the number one seeds?

We'll have that conversation and then we'll take a look at seeds two through four.

Everybody else kind of competing for a top 16 spot as selection Sundays, about 48 hours

away.

Talk about some potential dark horse teams that probably aren't going to be top four

seeds, but that might make a deep run in March.

And then we got to close out the show talking about what has been one of the biggest storylines

in College Basketball over the last week or so.

The bubble is incredibly, incredibly weak this year, those teams.

It feels like they're not even trying to win anymore so many losses by teams vying for

a final spot in the tournament.

Will we get some potential bid thieves that could save us from having to put some of these

teams in the big dance we'll get to that to close out the show.

But JJ, let's start with the Duke of it all.

We saw a tight game against Florida State and look, this Florida State team has been playing

pretty well as of late.

And as JJ, as you know, they played, even when they weren't playing, well, they played

Duke very close way back in early January, seemed like a matchup that might be tough, even

fully healthy, but without Pat Gongba and without Caleb Foster.

They were Rodney McRae, here I'll ball shot away from potentially losing that game to

Florida State.

How are you feeling, especially coming into tonight's game against Clemson?

Yeah, a whirlwind of emotions as last night's game was playing out, you know, thinking about

the first meeting that Duke had against Florida State, 87 points scored by Florida State

in that matchup was the most points anybody had scored against Duke all season long.

You're getting set for tip off.

The line is at 16 and a half, which just felt so steep, given Duke missing two starters,

made no sense in my head.

And obviously, Duke's got some things to figure out with no Caleb Foster and Patrick

Gongba, the second in the mix right now, hopeful that Gongba will be good to go by time next

week since the double A tournament opens up.

But then, you know, credits of Florida State for playing as advertised as they've been

10 and 2 over the last 12 ACC games now and had big time shot makers.

I thought, as you said, Robert McRae, the fifth was outstanding.

LeJay Jones could not miss from the outside of the corner.

I mean, they have got some big time shot makers, but fortunately, Duke, like they've done

so much of the season, really won this game on the glass.

Public Brown's effort was incredible.

Cameron Booser did his thing.

Isaiah Evans back in his hometown of Charlotte with a career high 32 points.

So it helps that when you're down to starters, you still have one of the most talented rosters

in the entire sport to be able to pull through like that and just really strong and great

coaching by John Shire.

As he said, an eight point second half lead, guys, is something Duke really has an experience.

This entire season, I mean, that was an unbelievable feeling.

You couldn't believe what your eyes were telling you when that scoreboard read at eight point

deficit for Duke and then they rattle off the 19 to two run and kind of put the game

away.

JJ, what I've been trying to figure out is like, I mean, it feels, I know, I know the

verbiage out there is like with, with Foster with Caleb that it's like, hey, he's out kind

of for the time, like, it feels like indefinite language, but it's like, I don't see a world

how you get back.

Oh, like even if we get all the way to the final.

For like, there's no way you recover from a fractured foot to play at a, at a final

for capacity.

Am I missing something there?

Or is that right?

Yeah.

I mean, that's just like three weeks away.

Right?

It's a, it's a fractured foot and, you know, if anybody right now took a moment to go

to Google or I guess everything's now chat GPT, I'm going to do that.

I'm going to do that and ask the typical timeline for a foot fracture.

You're going to be met with six to eight weeks instantly by the search engines, right?

And so I don't know how three weeks all of a sudden becomes a possible.

So I mean, never say never, I guess I just don't know that that's going to be the smartest

of moves.

And if you come back at three weeks, you're certainly not the player that you were prior

injury taking place.

And so yeah, I think it's, Duke's got to figure this out.

Kate and Boosler's got to grow up really quickly as the guy and then they had a lot of

point.

Hemenya looks and Andy, every week I'm talking to you, somehow, someway Nick Hemenya's

name is being mentioned.

And here we are.

He's really a part of the fold and had a great game yesterday.

So yeah, I just, I do not see a world that Caleb Foster's back this season.

Are you optimistic about, are you optimistic about Pat though, like about getting him back

for the tournament?

I know.

I know a lot of people are, you know, he didn't have the little scooter thing last week.

Which is the coolest contraption in the world, man.

It really is.

And that's my thought process, Isaac, is that Caleb Foster, fresh off of surgery.

Yeah, it needs to be riding the scooter.

So I think Patrick Gombot was just a little jealous, you know, he's like, well, if you

guys want me in this protective boot, then I want to be able to roll around on a scooter

as well.

And so didn't want Caleb to be out on an island by himself.

But right now with everything they've said and the fact that Gombot did go through pregame

warmups against North Carolina and tried to give it a go in regular season finale, I

don't see why, uh, Duke wouldn't be in a position to have him come back next week.

For me, like one of the things that's been interesting this year is that part of a larger

conversation going back to the Caleb Foster timeline is like coaches for the most part

don't really have to be super revealing about injury status and update and things like

that.

I know some conferences have have started having these, the ACC does, the ACC does have

that.

It's part of it.

But like when the NCAA when the selection committee has made it clear and this is justified,

but they say like we take into account injuries and if you're not going to have certain players,

that impacts your seating, why would any coach voluntarily give you any information that

is negative?

And I'll say this from a Gonzaga perspective, uh, Bradenhoff has been out since January

8th and he was given a four to eight week timeline.

Eight weeks was basically exactly selection Sunday from that timeline and then a month later

he had made according to like what we saw, he was still on crutches, he's not putting

any weight on his knee.

It didn't look like he'd made any progress.

And Mark Fuse said, oh, it's still, you know, it's the tail end of that timeline.

They have refused to indicate anything saying that he won't play in the NCAA tournament,

even though he doesn't look particularly close.

And yesterday was finally a report that he is doubtful for the first two round games.

They're still not committing.

We're not seeing him.

Yeah.

He's not like, I'd be stunned.

I'd be stunned if he played.

He has, according to a few, he's like, he's shooting a little bit and he's jogging a little

bit.

And I'm like, the odds of him, like, even if he doesn't have a setback from here on out,

like, he's not going to be running full speed enough to get out and play 20 minutes

of game.

Like, there's just no way.

And with Foster, like, there's no way.

Like, but I, I wouldn't, if I don't have to, I'm not going to give you any information

that might hurt where my share and obviously Duke's going to be at one seed regardless.

But like, Gonzaga's between a three and a four and that's a huge difference in terms

of getting to the sweet 16 or getting to the elite eight because Gonzaga can beat the

two seas.

I don't know if they can beat the one seed.

So you want to be that three seed desperately and I'm not giving up any information that

might hurt that.

So it's just kind of a weird wrinkle like we've seen, you know, these aren't the only two

teams that have done that.

But we've certainly seen teams that are trying really hard to kind of protect some of that

information before selection Sunday.

Yeah.

I've kind of made the same conversation a little bit earlier in the weekend.

There's no advantage for these coaches to be that forthcoming with injuries.

If they are going to be judged when a committee gets together and I know a lot of people, it's

not quite, it's not basketball, but the football comparison is what we saw in the final

year of the four team college football playoff Florida State goes undefeated, but their quarterback

Jordan Travis is out and then they're left out of the four team field because they're

factoring in the injuries that are there.

So to this point, zero reason why Duke needs, there's no incentive for these teams to

do those things.

JJ, do you think like obviously Caden is a really good point guard like when he's on the bench,

like I feel like with Cam, like do you just let Cam run point forward and just live with that?

Yeah.

I personally do.

I love that.

I love that.

I love that.

Yeah.

There was a lot of hominia in the game against Florida State and I'm sure that we're still

going to see a good bit of him as Duke continues throughout this weekend in the ACC tournament

if they can get past Clemson and then on into the championship game, but I think they're

just as good with Cam Booster out there on the floor handle in the rock and kind of get

in Duke where they want to go and that sort of thing.

It is so tough to defend Duke when Isaiah Evans is the screener and Cam Booster has the

basketball.

Yeah.

Because who are you going to guard here?

And that's what Duke runs over and over and over.

Well, that's the action.

I want the ball in the hands of my two best players.

It's like last year when you get Cooper and Kong going, right?

Yeah.

That's what happened.

Man, crazy stuff.

I was a pretty good coach.

That's what I said.

He knows what he's doing.

He knows what he's doing.

By the way, Andy speaking about knocking off one seeds in real time right now, Ohio State

has just tied Michigan with 16 and a half to go in the big 10 quarter finals.

Yeah.

And we're also, obviously, early in this game, but Florida has jumped out to a 14-6 lead

over Kampucky in the SEC and that kind of leads into looking at the rest of these one

seeds here.

We have Arizona, Michigan, Duke.

There basically locks to be one seeds.

I don't see any reality where none of those teams or any of those teams don't make it.

That final one seed spot's going to be between Florida and Yukon most likely at maybe Houston

can kind of sneak in there at some point.

But I kind of want thoughts on you guys, obviously, Duke being injured right now as a key factor.

But which of these one seeds is most vulnerable?

We saw all four one seeds in the final four last year.

If you knew that three of the four we're going to make it this year or two of the four

or whoever, like which ones do you think are most likely to potentially get knocked

off a little early?

Well, we talk about Duke having injuries and that's certainly a factor.

But this is still a Duke team that just a few weeks ago beat Michigan and a Michigan

team that's played great basketball all year long went to Machiairina earlier that

week and beat my boy or maker.

So all season long, I felt like Michigan is that one team that isn't going to be the

one that gets beat.

But ever since LJ Kason got injured and he's he's way more important than anybody would

give him credit to Elliott Cadoe, a great point guard for Michigan.

But they don't necessarily have that depth anymore in their back court that they did at

one point where does he make it just throw anything at you and find some success.

So right now I'm a little bit concerned about the Wolverines.

Once again, that is a team that I thought would be the best one seed for a good portion

of this year.

I would also throw Florida in there if only two of the four were to make it.

I'd probably say in Arizona in a Duke right now, depending on the Blue Devils injuries,

how, how all that plays out.

But I don't think that Florida has played the strength of the schedule that in Arizona,

a Duke or even a Michigan has to this point.

The conference tournament is going to be big for Florida in my opinion in terms of can

they rack up some more quad one wins.

Can they prove that they are the team to be coming out of the SEC right now.

It looks like they are and it's hard to doubt a team, especially after the run they

went on last year with Todd Golden at the helm.

But who knows they have a good front court, Xavier and Lee's looked a lot better since

he did start out this season.

There are a lot of moving pieces, but right now I would actually say that Michigan is on

the outs.

I'd, I'd push back on the strength of schedule side of it, Nick, just a little bit.

Yeah.

Ken Palm, at least Florida is sixth in the nation in strength of schedule.

So that just to keep that in mind.

I think you're one of the, one of the things for me with Andy answering your question is

looking at these injuries, right?

Obviously we've talked about the Duke.

Nick just very wisely brought up the LJ case and I'm one of those that undervalued how big

a deal that would be when Elliot Kado goes to the bench.

And then for Arizona, I think the big thing is how healthy can co-op keep get because

that's a key cog for them with having him at the for their healthy and ready to go.

It seems like he's back in good working order.

But man, that's critical.

And that's the nice thing for Florida is they don't seem to have that.

They've gotten to kill you see a lot.

Obviously with their three point shooting.

So I think it's going to be all down to injuries, like assuming as JJ was talking about,

I don't think we're going to see Caleb Foster again.

I fully expect this time next week to see Pat Gongba out on the floor, but what, like

at what percentage of himself, if he's 85% I'd say blue devils are in great shape as

long as Caden can step up, like I think he can promise it was funny.

We're talking about Elliot Kado a lot of teams just play off of him and let him shoot.

We saw Florida State do that to Caden Boozard on Thursday night.

And so the like the coaching staff is going to have to scheme something there because I

think that's a bit of a blueprint that teams are going to utilize in the postseason.

I still have a M of the firm belief that Arizona is the most complete team of these

ones seeds, especially understanding the injuries that are at play.

And so to me, they're the least vulnerable.

And I would say most vulnerable right now, I mean, if without Foster, without Gongba,

I'd have a hard time not saying Duke and I hate to say that, but I think that's where

it's at for me.

Are we getting enough, I was going to say, Isaac, are we getting enough Carlos Boozard

cutaways within game action now that it's like Caden's got a much larger role and being

in the building for these ACC tournaments.

He's definitely worth watching and the only thing I've seen in the online commentary is,

oh my goodness, how many times do we have to see this father react to one of his sons?

That's the problem.

He's got two on one team.

So the chances of one of them making a big play is increased, man.

One thing that stands out to me about this group of teams that's just kind of, it's probably

coincidental more than anything else.

But I always, one of the kind of separators for me is always looking at which teams have

veteran guards, experience guards, specifically like in primary initiators, ball handlers,

obviously Arizona with Jaden Bradley, I think probably as you're your advantage there.

But all of these teams kind of lack strong three point shooting point guards, like obviously

Isaiah Evans is a good shooter, like that Brayden Burries is a good shooter, like there's

good shooting guards on these teams.

But Bradley's not a great three point shooter.

Those are not a great three point shooter.

Elliot Cadoe was an inconsistent three point shooter.

Let's put it that way.

There's much, much, much has been made about Florida's outside shooting from their guard.

So it's like every one seed you can go under on those screens and dare him to shoot.

It's just kind of a unique thing.

I don't, again, I don't think that there's anything related about that necessarily.

These teams all have phenomenal front courts and that really helps a lot.

But certainly going to be something interesting to see kind of how the, the guard play, specifically

the point guard play kind of impacts all four of these teams.

I would lean Bradley being the, the most impactful out of this group and that being part of

the reason that, you know, I think Arizona is maybe the more complete team.

But without their starting point guard, Duke certainly feels vulnerable.

Florida, the inconsistency of their guards definitely scares me as well.

Oh, so we're still this Ohio State Michigan game is still stuck at 44 all.

And it has been since 1722.

And right now it's at 1440 and still nobody has scored.

So we're in like a, you know, just, you know, Elliot Cado just got to the rack.

All right, finally, I jinxed it into happening way to go Isaac.

You're the man.

Well, we're going to talk to four seeds here, moving on, moving on from the one seed conversation,

taking a look at who's, who's fighting for those top 16 spots?

Who's fighting to potentially get a chance to play these teams and these elite eight,

sweet 16 and maybe some teams outside that conversation who might make a deep run this

year.

All that coming up here in just a second.

But first, folks, college basketball is nonstop, especially this time of year.

We got big games.

We got tight spreads.

We got momentum swings every single night.

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Right now looking at the ACC tournament, Duke's still favored minus 250 to win that tournament

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Well, we talked about the one seeds, Duke Arizona, Michigan, Florida, likely that fourth

and final one seed, although they still are not a lock to be in that position, although

they are up just five right now on Kentucky, certainly that game will have an impact in

that conversation.

But lots of movement still going on between those two, three and four seeds.

It feels like every game that happens kind of moves the needle significantly as somebody

following a team that's done right now and just sitting here patiently waiting for Gonzaga.

They'd love to know what's going to happen with Nick Arvins per new team in Nebraska and

Virginia and all these teams, root and heavily against a lot of them right now to see if we

can secure that three seed.

Right now, according to bracket matrix, the way that this has shaken out your two seeds,

Yukon Houston, Illinois, Michigan state, your three seeds Iowa, state, Nebraska, Gonzaga

and Purdue, your four seeds, Alabama, Virginia, Kansas and Texas tech.

That feels pretty good to me.

Obviously some, I mean, we got Purdue, Nebraska, two, three seeds, square and off against each

other.

We got Kansas and Houston, square and off later, like a lot of movement potentially happening.

But do you guys feel like that feels about right in terms of what we're going to see

from these top four seeds when selection Sunday gets here?

Where did bracket matrix have Iowa, state at Andy?

Sorry, I didn't catch it.

So the first three seed, the first three seed, that's fair.

Do you guys have a bracketologist that you guys prefer compared to another one?

Because I use bracket matrix most of the time, because it aggregates all of it.

So well, fair enough, I need to, I need to get on that.

But Iowa state is a team that I love to look at, a team that I'm really interested in

right now.

And one that I've been huge on for a good portion of the season, they, uh, bracket matrix

has them as a top three seed.

I think they could get to that two line, depending on how the rest of their big 12 conference

zone tonight.

You've probably done it.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Appreciate it.

Appreciate it.

Um, so I'm really high on Iowa state.

I can't wait to see how that one plays out.

I'm really big on the big 12 in general this year.

I love that conference Arizona Iowa state.

I'm not as high on Texas tech after JT top and goes out, obviously, they've taken a

bit of a step back.

But what's your guys' opinion on this court debacle where we did all the topic, but they

peel the LED floor and then put the, uh, put the hardwood back in.

Yeah.

Isaac and I were talking last night.

We went live at like 11.30 p.m. Pacific time or whatever.

And I was like, I think Brett, your marks out there still peel in the court right now.

Yeah.

As you speak, like, like, I don't mind trying something, but it was odd time.

To try it, like, why try to, uh, to do something kind of flashy at, do that at the beginning

of the season.

Like, don't do that at this time of year when there's a potential risk of it.

Yeah.

Like that, that, that was what stood out to me.

I don't, I didn't, I didn't particularly like the court, but I don't hate trying it.

Like, I'm never going to, gonna fault a commissioner or somebody for trying something

new and innovative and unique, even if I don't particularly like it.

My big quibble with this was the specific timing and then going back and forth on it.

It just, just kind of, it brought more attention, negative attention to it than

obviously they would have wanted to.

And I think that was justified for trying to do this in the tournament.

I think the timing is the best thing because you're right.

The basketball, this time of year, the basketball is always going to take care of itself.

You're right.

You're going to watch that.

I'm going to be just as engaged in the game that's being played because everyone

understands the seasons up for the lines and that sort of thing.

I don't need to be distracted by some, some court makeup on it all.

So I didn't mean like Andy to your point.

It's like, do this at players era festival, right?

Right.

Hello, you're in Las Vegas.

You're staring at the sphere.

Let's have a crazy court like that's where you do that.

I did want to talk about Purdue.

I didn't mean to go out on the tangent, but I had to ask the professionals about

love it, the led court, the vocal.

And terms of Purdue, though, slotted right now at a three seed, I don't

necessarily know if that changes unless they go on to win the big 10 tournament.

I think right now outside of going on that run, there'll be a three seed either

way.

If they lose to Nebraska tonight, if they beat Nebraska, beat Michigan State or

something like that, though that in stretch where you lose to Michigan State,

you lose to Wisconsin and then you lose the Ohio State on the road.

I think that was just too much for Purdue to get back into that two seed line.

So I think we'll be right there.

But you mentioned something earlier, Andy, when you talked about Gonzaga,

something that really stuck out to me in terms of our own situation where I

don't necessarily have confidence in Purdue to beat the one seeds.

I do think that Purdue could beat the two seeds.

Yep.

So if we're able to stay in that three line, which I do think we're capable of,

there's a real shot that this team gets back to an elite day.

Yeah, I think the difference between a three and a four seed this year is

about as significant as it's ever been.

Not just because of how good the one seeds are, but because it feels like the

difference between the really between the second two seed,

because I think there's five very good teams outside of like the top four seeds

in Yukon, basically, the difference between five and like 14 basically feels

really, really close.

So if you're a three seed, you should feel confident beating a two seed,

because I don't think there's a whole lot of difference between those two

seed. There's some bad matchups for certain teams, but for the most part,

like I think Gonzaga is capable of beating every two seed.

Not that they will, but they're capable.

Whereas with the one seeds, I mean, I, if Yukon sneaks in as a one seed,

I think Gonzaga could beat them, but like for the most part, I don't,

they're not matching up well with any of those other teams.

So yeah, I, you really want to be a three seed this year.

You do not want to be a four seed.

Well, it's interesting to me going back to all this who's two through four is

like we've got a whole chunk of big 10 schools mixed in there on those two

three lines. Illinois, Michigan state, both two seeds right now at bracket

matrix, Nebraska Purdue, both three seeds.

What's interesting is it's one of those things where it's like, are you playing

yourself into, by the way, Kentucky's on a 10 oh run and has tied Florida at 20,

920 to go first half.

So it's like when those teams are playing like Purdue Nebraska tonight,

I don't know that that's necessarily a, it's like, I don't know that it moves

the needle much either way.

Like I don't know that you jump up.

If you win, I know, I don't know if you lose.

I think it now what might move the needle?

Let's say Virginia, somehow, that's where I was going to go beats,

beats Miami and then gets ahead of Duke, although Duke, I mean, Duke just

absolute. JJ, how many was that by a camera in the other week?

Too many, remember, too many, yeah.

Let's say that Virginia wins the ACC tournament.

I would think they would probably leap, you know, maybe a Purdue,

push Purdue down to the four and themselves grab a three.

So that we've got the problem.

Didn't say again, they're leaping me.

I'm not rooting for Virginia right now.

Right.

But I just say that to say that's one of the only places where I see

there being that level of movement amongst those like two, three, fours,

is if we have one of those teams popping and winning a conference tournament

because so many of them are playing each other and the resumes already have

so many data points.

I think that we're just, if there is movement, it'll be minimal at that

point because the teams on the five line right now, we're looking at like a

Vandy and Arkansas, St. John's North Carolina, Tennessee, Wisconsin.

And so I mean, maybe the Johnny's knockoff Yukon and they could get to a four,

I just don't like, I don't see Vandy getting to a four Arkansas.

Maybe they get to the SEC championship and they could slide.

I don't, I just don't see too much movement.

One thing that stands out to me too for, for some of the,

the lower seeds that won in their conference tournament, it actually

hurts those top seeded teams like Arkansas or Alabama is playing Ole Miss, right?

Like that, that, you lose that game, you fall out of the four seed conversation.

Most likely you win that game, nothing happens.

This is sort of what happened to Purdue in the sense of like Northwestern was

not a win that really moved the needle for them.

It would have been a catastrophic loss and they obviously made sure that that

did not happen, but it played good too.

Yeah, right.

It can kind of hurt these teams a little bit when they don't get a chance to pick

up like what would have been a marquee tournament win and like an Arkansas

in a similar position where they'll play, I believe Oklahoma, I'll play Oklahoma,

and so like they don't get that's beating Oklahoma is not going to move Arkansas

onto the four line.

Now, if they then beat Alabama, they might flip with them and that would help.

Certainly, I think Arkansas in my mind is probably the most likely team

that's not in the top four seeds right now, at least according to bracket matrix

that could end up getting a top four seed, but I think they are hurt by that,

like if they were going to play A&M and beat A&M instead of Oklahoma,

that would have helped them a little bit more.

Not a huge difference between those teams, but I do think that sometimes

the conference tournament and who you're playing is outside of your control.

And it can hurt teams in the seating perspective right now.

I wanted to make sure that I jumped on with Isaac and gave some love to Virginia,

just with what I've seen here lately.

I mean, it's a team that's ranked 10th in the AP poll and to find themselves

kind of into four seed range.

You know, the math's not adding up that you would follow that far.

I know it's a different look there and Andy, obviously, we're not wanting

Virginia to jump in Zaga for your perspective and that sort of thing.

Well, do you just look?

Tester Ritter has led them all season when they're able to swap in and out

and run low and on Yoso on the interior on Yoso with eight blocks yesterday,

which was just insane.

And then what I love, like some of their guards,

Chance Mallory is as tough as they come for a freshman.

And one of my favorite parts is that they proudly list him at five foot 10.

So often in college basketball, we want to give these guys the benefit of the

doubt. And Virginia's like, no, this is our freshman.

He's great.

He's also five 10 like we're not giving him the bump up to six feet.

So shout out to Virginia.

My favorite thing, this is very off topic.

What I'm going to say anyway, my favorite thing that has happened with the

automatic strike zone in Major League Baseball is all the players have to get

their height measured specifically.

So their strike zone is custom to them.

And there's like a huge list of players that went from five, like from six one

to five 10, like overnight on the website, and somebody was tracking it.

Like, there's like, what's out to they listed at I think he's, I think they,

they haven't been able to fudge his because if you listed him at six foot,

everybody would immediately know that you, he's a short king.

Hey, by the way, really,

under two to go in the eight 10 George Washington has retaken the lead over

Saint Louis 79 78.

Billikins were up nine just a couple of minutes ago, but man,

GDub, getting in it, we'll keep, we'll keep you up to date.

Before we move on to the bubble talk, I'm just going to get one,

one team from each of you, who is not in the top four seeds right now,

according to bracket matrix, who you think has a chance of making a final four run.

I'll just, I'll toss to you, Isaac first, which team do you think that's not

in that conversation could do it?

Outside the top four seeds at bracket matrix.

I can ride on for you if you want.

No, I'm looking at it right now.

I'm vacillating between Arkansas, Saint Johns.

I'm going to go with Arkansas because of the Darius A cuff of it all, right?

Like how often do we talk about March being all about crazy, good guard play?

The question is a guy.

Like he is the, the question is always though.

He is a freshman and we just never know how they're going to show up,

but he's just shown up again and again and again.

They've got some experience.

Again, we doubt their front court a little bit, although, man,

I feel like Trayvon Brazil has been playing really well lately.

You got Malik Thomas as well.

And so I'd say Arkansas, just because I think that,

gosh, a cuff could in a, in a, a world where we know all of the litany

of John Calapari guards through the years, dude, he, I cannot wait to see.

Like we need to do this at some point this off season is rank.

John Calapari freshman guards all time.

And I'm guaranteeing you he's going to be at or near the top of that list.

Yep.

I got Wisconsin Andy.

Sorry, sorry.

So go ahead, Nick.

Blackway.

Wisconsin as a, as a succeed right now on bracket matrix.

You not only do you have Nick Boyd, not only do you have John Blackwell,

who have been balling out lately, but they haven't even had Nolan winter.

And they're starting lineup the past couple of weeks, which is a big piece for them.

They already beat Illinois once this year.

They already beat Michigan state once this year.

They beat Purdue.

I think they beat Michigan too as well, I believe.

So they've been, they've been everyone that the big 10 has to offer.

I think they're going to beat Illinois once again here in about an hour.

I really like this Wisconsin team right now.

They have the offense.

They can, they can win high scoring games.

They're really good in the clutch.

I'm really high on Wisconsin as a succeed.

Yeah, I, I will stay on the boat with, with Isaac there in Arkansas.

What Darius A Cuff has been, but I also want to jump into the six seed conversation

that Nick was just having and throw out somebody like Louisville or BYU simply

because for Louisville, if you get my Cal Brown junior back, and then when we're

talking about AJ DeBanza, who's one of the top players in the entire sport,

giving the best players when it comes down to a one game scenario to take it

over for a possibility of making a big round like that.

Go about you, Andy.

Yeah, my list has Arkansas BYU on it.

So I'm glad that you guys mentioned those teams.

I figured they would get, get, get, get some love.

I'll throw out Tennessee.

Again, one thing I always look at as veteran guard at Jacobi Gillespie is that

for the, for the balls.

It would be pretty funny if a real, not, not a weak Rick Barnes team,

but certainly not the caliber of Rick Barnes team we've seen the last few years.

Well, they don't have like that offensive dude, right?

There's not, yeah, I mean, that's where Nate Amen has kind of been like he's not

Dalton connect.

He's not chaslin here.

He's not a go to guard, but like he's, he's been that guy for them offensively

as of late.

I just think it'd be funny if this is the Rick Barnes team that finally makes

the final four because they're just not like again, they're good.

They've been fairly consistently the top 25, but it's certainly not the team

people would have expected.

My dark horse and Isaac will probably know what team I'm going to say here

because I've been a fan of them and I picked them to win the ACC tournament

on yesterday's show of Lockdown College basketball or today's show.

Miami, Jay Lucas has done such an incredible job in his first year as the

head coach for this program.

Millie Greno is an absolute dude.

And even beyond that, Shelton Henderson has been great.

Trey Donaldson, Ernest Uday, like they just have a balanced, consistent team.

They're kind of projected seven seedish range right now.

If they win, if they beat Virginia, I think they climb into that six seed

conversation.

If they pull off a stunner over Duke, which I'm still mad, we didn't get that

game in the regular season, then I could see Miami climbing all the way into

the Saturday night.

Yeah, they could maybe five seed conversation.

Maybe probably still six, but either way, they're a team that I think's

going to be a little dangerous in March.

Well, let's, let's talk a little bit since speaking of the other Miami,

we're going to talk about the bubble.

We're going to talk about what's going on with the bubble, some bid thief

situations, whether the Mac will be a bid thief situation.

If we think Miami Ohio is going to get an at large bid and whether we're

going to be saved from some of these sub 500 conference teams making it

into the big dance, we're going to get to all that coming up here in just a

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All right, folks, continuing our conversation as we get closer and closer to

selection Sunday, about what 53 hours away from the official bracket reveal

on CBS Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening.

I say afternoon because I'm a Wescoaster.

And that's when it is out here, but folks, the storyline for last couple of

weeks and it feels like we've talked about this every single year.

But there is some data.

The great Evan Miyakawa on his website, Evan Mia dot com pulled some data to

basically indicate that this year's bubble compared to the rest of the field

is as weak as pretty much any bubble has been in the history of college

basketball in the in the 68 64 team era.

So we kind of knew that again, we're looking at teams and some of the teams

that are in this conversation are multiple games below 500 in conference.

Play like we just have not seen teams and over the last stretch, I mean,

Auburn struggled down the stretch Indiana lost early in the conference

tournament since natty blue and eight point lead with three minutes to go again,

central Florida.

Like so many of these teams have Stanford and Cal were teams that were kind

of periphery of the bubble and then decided to really shoot themselves in the

foot by losing early in the conference tournament or Bob.

Yes, yes, it's just my name, I'll reference for the day.

Yes, I love it.

I love it.

Right now, right now, bracket matrix has the 10 seeds being Texas A&M Central

Florida NC State and Miami Ohio and then the 11 seeds, they list six of them

because they're just again, an aggregate of all these brackets would be Missouri.

That's where the the Dayton games would be.

That's part of why they do the right.

Yeah, you're right.

So they have Missouri, Santa Clara, Texas, SMU, VCU and South Florida.

South Florida is intriguing to me because they are going to play tomorrow against

the winner of I think it's Charlotte, UAB in the American conference tournament.

The main reason I'm curious is if South Florida would be a potential bid thief

situation if they were to lose and somebody else were to win the American

conference or not.

I personally, if like, let's say Tulsa upset South Florida, I would love to see

both those teams make the tournament because I think they're both probably

better than some of these teams that are in that mix right now.

But JJ, I want to start with you because I know you have a connection with

Auburn, obviously, a program that's been in the news a ton for Bruce Pearl's

comments about Miami, Ohio, which we talked about on a squad show a few weeks

ago. And now, of course, with Miami, Ohio and Auburn both losing on the same

day, Auburn probably, I mean, I'll let you talk about what you think.

But for me, if they've been able to hold on to that 10 point lead against

Tennessee, maybe we're having a different conversation.

But the fact that they blew that game makes me feel like, I mean, it's got to be

just about curtains for them.

Yeah, it really felt like when that first half was playing out in the start of

the second, you see to hot pedifer getting a rhythm in a zone.

It's like, this is the reason he came back.

He's the only member from the final four squad a year ago.

But again, Auburn was the number one overall seed in last year's tournament,

not Florida, who won the thing, not Duke, not Houston of the one seeds.

So to follow off this far, after Bruce Pearl retires and his son takes

over the program, it's just crazy to end up in this position.

But you said it. And I mean, in the month of February to lose six of your

seven games there, you're two and two so far in the four games that you played

in March. I mean, this just has not been good basketball.

And with 16 losses, I think if I saw this correctly, guys, I don't know

that there's been teams with more than 15.

So there's, yeah, here, let me give you the number.

No team has ever been selected as an at large, I should say, you know,

obviously there have been some, some automatic qualifiers.

No at large has ever been selected with 16 losses.

Here's another one that I just found on Friday morning.

No team has ever been selected without being multiple games above

500. Auburn, obviously right now is 17 and 16.

And so like both of those things alone are like killers.

Yeah. So I mean, I, there, I don't know how you make the case for, for

Auburn to make the field there.

No, let's tell you about the street schedule and where it's at, right?

But you know, I mean, at some point, winning these games matters.

And when people see you play on the floor and not walking off with your

head held high from winning and you just kind of look at the makeup,

but it just seems like there's got to be some infighting within that

all locker room and team and everything better than on a plane.

Better than on a plane, you say that.

I think in the plane, it ended up going to a final four, you know,

maybe, and maybe you need to run it, yeah, maybe they just need to run it

back and, you know, I mean, as I ends on a plane, as you look at their Ken

Palm page, it's just so, and I know the committee doesn't look at most

recent 10 games anymore, like that's not a thing.

But they've lost nine of their last 12 games, right?

Like the humanity of that is like, good grief.

Something that I've really, you know, people, I feel like often talk about

like, how have you done in quad one and two combined?

Rocco Miller, I really like that he looks at kind of a combination of

meaningful games and calls it quads one, two and three in aggregate.

And basically his idea is if you are not above 500 in the first three quads

combined, you have no business dancing.

Notably, Kevin Sweeney from Sports Illustrated, put this up.

Auburn is 11 and 15 in quads one through three combined.

There you go.

Texas 10 and 14, Indiana 11 and 14 since an Adi 11 and 14, Oklahoma 11 and

14 and Virginia Tech 12 and 13.

And so it's just like all of these like, like, you take out the quad four

games and your four games below 500 in the first three quadrants,

that's insanity.

Yeah.

Yeah, I'm with you guys on that.

Obviously, the Auburn of it all, it was funny to me about this year with

the bubble is we have two very unique teams.

I know there's more bubble teams than Auburn and Miami Ohio.

Like, obviously, they're not the only two, but Auburn's resume is very unique.

Obviously, they, the fact that they're even in this conversation as a

16 loss team is strange, but it's because they had a ridiculously hard

non-confined schedule and they're like, their win quality is good.

They, they have too many losses.

I think that's at this point kind of overwhelmed.

Very true and hard to recognize, but their resume, like, the reason that

there's a 16 loss team in this conversation is A, because the bubble's very

weak otherwise, but B, because Auburn is not your typical 16 loss team.

This is an unusual circumstance.

The Miami Ohio conversation, a lot of people kind of like to make it out

to be like, this happens regularly.

Oh, there's always these mediocre mid major teams that win almost all their

games and like, no, this is very rare.

Like this, the last time a team went into the conference tournament undefeated

was Gonzaga in 2021 before that.

I think it was Wichita State like and for Miami Ohio to lose in their first

loss of the season being in the conference tournament.

That's the first time this has happened since 1975.

Like, this is a very unusual circumstance.

The fact that they have the second worst strength of schedule in college

basketball is also very unusual.

Like the reason that people are having a hard time figuring out how to talk

you can say that again, Andy, for people to sit on that for a moment.

The second worst.

Yeah, the second worst schedule in college basketball is up for Ken Palm.

And what what it's a non-conference strength, the schedule.

Yeah, I believe it is from Ken Palm.

And that's what's so unique about this team is they are, they are the extremes.

Like not only that, like not only do they have this almost spotless record

and a really weak schedule, they have come very close to losing a lot of times.

Their margin of victory is pretty slim.

They are a team that found a way to win every single game until they lost

to UMass, which is incredible.

Extraordinary should be rewarded.

I have no doubt I am not making an argument against Miami Ohio.

I think they should clearly be in the field, but it is unique.

It is unique to have a team that somehow just scrapes by the skin of their

teeth. Like a seven point swing for Miami Ohio this year is three more

losses and we are not even, they are Steven F Austin, who lost in their conference

tournament at 28 and 3 and nobody is now.

Nobody is having that conversation about Steven F Austin, nor should they.

I would love to see 28 win mid major teams make the tournament.

But reasonably, I am not going to make that argument for that team.

But Miami Ohio didn't lose those three games, you know what I mean?

Like they found ways to win at overtime and now they are in this conversation.

It is very fascinating to me.

I think they will get in and I think that they might lose their first game,

whether it is a play in game, whether it is a 7-10.

And I think that that will start the discourse of well they didn't belong.

And I hate that because I think the team that goes 31 and one deserves their

chance, even if they lose, it doesn't matter.

There is going to be a top five seed that loses, you know, a five seed is going

to lose to a 12 seed this year.

That doesn't mean that five seed didn't deserve to make it.

Sometimes you just lose, but I think Miami Ohio deserves a chance.

Andy, I will give you a news for you and then I will go to these other guys.

Miami Ohio has risen in Ken Palm non-constrength schedule all the way from

364 all the way up to 361.

So we're looking now only the fifth horse non-conference strength schedule.

You guys don't think there's one of these seven seeds at Kentucky.

Miami, St. Mary's Villanova that Miami of Ohio could beat.

I think they could.

I think they absolutely could.

I think Kentucky is a very volatile team.

Like I could see Kentucky meeting Miami Ohio by 20.

Like I truly could see that and it would be devastating.

But I could see that happening.

I could also see Kentucky having an off night.

Miami Ohio is a good shooting team.

They're also very volatile, which is what makes it unique.

First of all, as somebody who follows this team very closely,

sign me up for St. Mary's Miami Ohio.

That would be a fascinating game of basketball.

Two really good three point shooting teams.

My St. Mary's elite defensively Miami Ohio high level offense.

That would be a bar.

I hate when mid major teams get squared off in the first round.

So I wouldn't like it, but at the same time like that would be a really fun game.

Well, and I think to Nick's question, I'll phrase it this way.

This is the only thing that pops into my mind.

Jack goal key's not a thing until Jack goal keys a thing.

Right.

You just never know on any given day who's going to be that dude or that team

that just steps up and goes bonkers.

Like Jack goal key came off the bench for that team for crying out loud, right?

And so so yeah, absolutely any of those teams could do it.

But I like Andy's point about the volatility of it all that that factors into it.

Want to talk about some bid thief situations that we might see here to kind of close out the show.

As we're recording this right now, some of these games are getting close to tip and off.

But always every year there's there's usually at least one or two teams

that win their conference tournament that are not expected to.

And they don't knock somebody from their conference out of the tournament.

So they end up being a thief in the sense that they take a bid from one of these bubble teams.

We don't like very many of the bubble teams.

I think we're kind of rooting for there to be some bid thieves.

I also like chaos.

So I think it'd be very fun if we saw that the two power conferences that have potential

bid thieves since every big 10 team that's still left every ACC team and big 12 team that's still left.

They're all going to make it regardless of what happens.

But Seton Hall, they're kind of a borderline borderline bubble team.

So they I don't know if he count them as a bit thief if they won the SEC or excuse me, the big Eastern.

And George down, yeah, George down is not a bubble team by any stretch.

But if somehow Ed Cooley just goes on a incredible continues an incredible run beats.

You can beat St. John's or Seton Hall.

That would be a bit thief and a very, very funny one.

On the SEC, I don't think Oklahoma is going to make it if they don't win the SEC tournament.

So they would be a bit thief Ole Miss certainly would not make it unless they won the SEC.

That would be funny as well.

So curious if that happens.

And then in the Mountain West, Nevada is still in the mix.

They could potentially be a bit thief.

Whoever wins the Mac is going to be a bit thief because we assume Miami Ohio will make it.

South Florida potentially curious to see if that happens in the American.

But do you do you guys kind of especially with those power conference teams?

Seton Hall, George down Oklahoma, Ole Miss?

Does anybody feel like there might be a chance that one of those teams wins their conference tournament

and makes things a little interesting in March?

I just don't.

I mean, I don't really.

I love to do it, you know.

But I just feel like the teams that are projected to kind of win these conferences

are where they need to be.

And there's enough separation from the top of those leagues

down towards the bottom to potential bid thiefs.

I don't see it.

Ohio State is up on Michigan now, by the way.

I just want to throw that out there.

They're up by one point.

Oh, they are.

Yeah.

Also, while we're in that mode, St. Louis did come back and win.

Largest come back in program history for the Billings.

They were down 21 in the first half.

28th win this season ties the school record.

Great for Josh Scherz, who just got a big deserved extension.

I'm really shocked.

I thought he might move on.

But I love that.

He's the loyal team to the Billings.

By the way, St. Louis, a couple hours down the road.

I'm going to need to get up there next year and see the Billings in action.

Yeah, I like I'm glad Arvin mentioned the Ohio State game,

because I'm keeping a close eye on that.

Again, I don't think it's a bid thief necessarily.

I think Ohio State's already in.

But man, oh, man, that would be interesting.

I've been J.J. might make you feel a little bit better about getting that number one

overall seed of Michigan goes down, especially if we think Ohio State might be Arizona

later today, which is something I think is probably going to happen.

In terms of the bid thieves, seeing Hall's the only team I think that could do it, I could

see Michigan always team something out, finding the way to upset St. John's and Yukon.

But again, I think if they even beat St. John's, they're probably going to be in the field

as a bubble team.

So by that point, it may not matter.

But yeah, unfortunate that there's not a lot of bid thieves this year because the bubble

is just not not in particularly good shape as we're here about 50 hours away from 54 hours

away.

I can do math from Selection Sunday.

Hey, look, don't forget Arizona, though, like if Duke should fall, if Michigan should

fall here, like Arizona, I'm just going to continue to say for my money, the most complete

team in the nation, obviously, the three pointers might come into effect.

But I wouldn't be shocked at all if we wind up seeing them as the number one overall team.

All right, folks, that's going to wrap it up for us today.

Thank you so much for making the lockdown squad show your first listener watch of the

day.

This will be the final piece of content from Isaac and I before Selection Sunday, where

we'll be together in Dallas, Texas for the bracket break down brought to you by Amazon

Fire TV.

So excited to have that going once again excited to get a look at what this bracket looks

like and how it shakes out all this fun stuff.

Huge thank you to JJ and Nick for jumping on today as well, folks, as always, especially

with Arvin here.

We want to say apologies to the lawyer family.

Let's go wild, folks, cheers to the McBrewings and until next time, folks, peace out.

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