E128: US-Europe Relations, How Japan Can Strengthen The Yen, and Predicting AI’s Growth Effects w/ Noah Smith

Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith analyze America's European withdrawal, China's selective globalization strategy, and tempers expectations about AI's economic impact while considering GDP measurement challenges.

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Weeb Economy: https://bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880/

I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ 

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X / TWITTER:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

• U.S.-Europe Relations & Geopolitical Shifts: Examines the U.S. shift away from supporting Europe, debating whether it was exploited or harming its own interests, with Trump’s strength-focused foreign policy potentially pivoting toward Russia, risking economic and intelligence ties with Europe.
• China's Economic Strategy & Globalization: The Belt and Road Initiative has largely failed, with poorly executed projects and unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries.
• India's Industrialization & Economic Future: India needs a major shift in labor dynamics, particularly increasing women's participation in factory work.
• AI, Economic Growth & the O-Ring Theory: AI’s impact on economic growth is debated—some expect 10% growth, while Noah sees 5% as more realistic.
• Japan’s Economy & Currency Strength: Japan should push for a new Plaza Accord with the U.S. to strengthen the yen.
• AI’s Impact on Jobs & Productivity: AI is unlikely to eliminate all jobs but will require major adjustments in industries and legal structures.

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