Effectively Wild Episode 2449: Season Preview Series: Mariners and Marlins

How can you not be predicted?

A stab lies to keep you distracted.

It's a long-soughted death but the sure to make you smile.

This is a fact that you want.

This is a fact that you want.

This is a fact that you want.

Hello and welcome to episode 2449 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fan Graphs presented by our Patreon supporters.

I am Ben Lindbergh of the ringer joined by Meg Rally of Fan Graphs Hello Meg.

Hello.

I get PR emails.

You get PR emails.

We all do.

Here's one that I got just this week.

Here's the subject line.

New YouGov data, Colin.

Shohei Otani is driving MLB interest in Japan.

Really revealing.

Don't you think?

Just made me click.

You don't say Shohei Otani is driving MLB interest in Japan.

I never would have known that if you had not surveyed a thousand representative Japanese sports fans.

It has a key findings summary here.

79% of Japanese sports fans say Shohei Otani has increased their interest in MLB.

Never would have guessed that.

That's shocking to me that Japanese fans might be more interested in MLB because of Shohei Otani.

78% say Otani is one of their favorite MLB players.

And 87% have a positive impression of him.

Who knew?

Who would have guessed that that was true?

Yeah.

I kid.

There's some somewhat interesting data in here.

For instance, the fact that NPB is the most popular league in Japan, which is not particularly surprising.

But it's kind of close.

There are 57% of the respondents were very or somewhat interested in NPB.

And MLB was at 50% even, which is quite close, actually.

So, yeah, not a big difference there.

It talks about the popularity of the Dodgers who employ Shohei Otani and some other prominent Japanese pitcher.

So nothing super shocking here.

I guess if you did not pay any attention to baseball or Shohei Otani or Japan, maybe you would be surprised by some of this.

But usually it's like you lead with a hook of some sort, some counterintuitive finding.

And just the subject line of Shohei Otani is driving MLB interest in Japan.

What?

I know.

Shocking.

What?

Made me click.

So I guess it did the job.

But you put Shohei Otani in a subject line.

I'm probably going to click regardless.

But really, the findings here.

Yeah, it's just didn't blow me away, I wouldn't say.

But I will share these findings for anyone else who cares to peruse them.

They couldn't do it without you, Ben.

That's the thing about it.

They couldn't do it without you.

Yeah, they did have a ranking of the most popular MLB players among Japanese fans.

This is active, I assume, because each row does not appear here.

But Shohei Otani number one at 78%.

And then Yoshinobu Yamamoto is second at 53%.

Yeah.

So a distant second.

And then distant third is Yudarvish at 30%.

And then Roki Sasaki is fourth at 27%.

So the Dodgers have collected three of the top four.

Turns out Japanese sports fans also interested in the WBC?

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah, they actually, most of them plan to watch it.

Wow.

Thank you, Yukov.

Look, sometimes there's utility in establishing a baseline.

Even if we know, just bring some data to the table,

just so we know the magnitudes of certain things.

Sometimes you've got to publish the null results.

There's just nothing there.

And sometimes maybe it's good just to have a handle on how people feel about something.

Even if you have a pretty strong sense that that's how they feel.

I mean, it's better than the PR email I got earlier today announcing the official soundtrack of the WBC.

Oh, yeah, I got that one too.

I know.

Didn't know that the WBC had a soundtrack, but indeed it does.

It's because it doesn't need one.

I mean, it had it anyway, anyway, Ben.

All the soundtrack we need is the crack of the bet.

And the, I don't know, the pop of the glove.

That's really all we need for a soundtrack to our baseball.

But yeah, I am envious though, because I mean, we knew this obviously.

But it's actually this is a little lower than I would have thought.

Maybe 61% of Japanese sports fans say they are very or somewhat interested in baseball.

89% say they have at least some interest, which that's really nice.

You know, just imagine walking around in an environment where nine out of ten people

have at least some interest in baseball.

That would be nice, I think.

I wish that we were immersed in that sort of environment in the country where baseball came from.

You just have to get to the ballpark more Ben because if you go to the ballpark, you're surrounded by people like baseball.

Do you know that?

That's true.

I guess it is sort of a selective skewed sample, but nonetheless relevant.

Okay.

We have a Mariners preview for you today with Ryan DeVish of The Seattle Times

followed by a Marlins preview with Christina Dinacola of MLB.com.

I think we have but four more preview pods after this one.

We're getting there.

We're getting there.

We are, which means that we're getting to the season two and the WBC has started.

It's begun.

Yeah.

It's upon us.

Very exciting.

Yeah.

It is exciting.

Yeah.

The final score in that TV USA versus Giants game for anyone who is wondering.

Yeah.

Well, and then the Rockies is ran out of pitching the other day.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I mean, yeah.

Did they have pitching to begin with?

I mean, they had less by the end of that game as the problem.

Yes.

What was the final score in that one?

A 14 to four.

Judge did take Kyle Freeland, his former TV USA teammate deep, or no, I guess Judge wasn't on the team last time around, but Freeland was.

And now Judge is the captain.

Yeah.

And he had a big, a big home run, a big, old home run, which is the kind he typically hits.

Did you watch any of the tune up between the Dominican Republic and the Tigers?

I did not.

No, I missed that.

Ben, what a good time that was.

You know, they played that game in the DR.

And so it was, you know, predominantly Dominican crowd.

I don't know that I had appreciated how high stakes a reliever named Herder is.

Yeah.

I was, I was made aware of the stakes of the name when he, well, the DR put the Herder on him.

And it was just like big home run after a big home run.

And the crowd was having a great time.

And the announcers were like, if you've never seen lead home, this is what it's like.

And I'm like, on the one hand, you are correct.

That's an announcer and forgive me.

I'm forgetting who the announcer was.

This is, you know, talk about it being in a country where people are, you know, crazy go nuts for baseball, love baseball so much.

And the crowds even, you know, during just sort of a regular season lead home game can be really rowdy and enthusiastic.

And it's so much fun.

But generally when a lead home is playing, you don't have quite so stacked a lineup as that.

And boy, it was, um, it was a real fun time.

Uh, one Soto Humbert and then Mani Machado Humbert and then Junior Camp in Narrow Humbert.

And the crowd lost it.

I don't know if they have the pitching, but boy, that, that lineup, that lineup can bang.

It is a fun, that is a fun time.

So I'm excited.

Let's go.

Me too.

Yeah.

There's a couple quick other items.

So and by the way, we will, we will talk about prominent pitcher on that WBC squad in our maroets preview when Danielle Contra comes up.

But little development in the pirates, Andrew McCutchen standoff, which is that Andrew McCutchen is officially no longer on the pirates, he has signed a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers.

Oh, yeah, we've already previewed the Rangers.

I suppose there's a path to playing time for him potentially on that squad with

Jack Peterson penciled in as starting DH, McCutchen out hit him last year.

So maybe, but his deal can max out at about two and a half million if he makes the

roster and gets to his incentives.

But yeah, it's a low dollar deal.

But obviously the pirates were ready to move on and McCutchen was not

ready to move on from playing and it is sort of sad, I guess, to see him not

end his career in Pittsburgh, but not to the same degree because obviously he's not

a single team career guy.

Right.

He had his departure from Pittsburgh and he returned, which was nice.

And it's spoiled slightly by this bit of bad blood here at the end.

But maybe they can make up in the long run.

And he can come back to town for some sort of retirement ceremony, which he can time to coincide

with the Ferris convention probably.

But this is, you know, maybe he's hanging on a little too long, but I never, I never fault

anyone for just playing as long as you can and see if he wants to continue to play.

And he can find someone to let him then more power to him and his more power would help probably.

But yeah, yeah, I hope it, it works out.

Everyone loves Kutch.

Everyone wants to see Kutch succeed wherever that happens.

So evidently, he was quite serious, though, about not being ready to retire.

You got to have time to kind of get used to the notion, right?

I think that for these guys, they've all been playing for so long.

It's been so foundational to their sense of self.

And I wouldn't be surprised if Kutch just thought, yeah, I mean, we'll figure out a way to

kind of run it back with Pittsburgh.

And so, you know, he clearly thinks that he still has something to give and that he can be a

productive big leader, which is why he expected to get resigned in Pittsburgh and all likelihood.

So I kind of, I kind of get it, you know, yep.

We've had some, some height updates now that the stat cast derived, or, you know, for the purposes

of ABS derived measurement system, they've done the new measurements this spring.

When we were doing the Astros preview and we were talking about Alex Breggman and his listed height

and how tall he actually was, was it, maybe it was the Cubs preview.

I think it was last year that we talked about Breggman's height in the Astros preview, maybe,

or I had to bring it up again because I'm a mean person.

Yeah, this time we asked Sahada about it and we noted when we were recording that segment,

Breggman was listed at 5.11, which was down from six feet prior to last year, I believe,

but we were still somewhat skeptical. Uh-huh.

He's lost another inch, Mick. He's, he's down to 5.10 now, which is still, okay,

perhaps someone dubious, but closer.

You know what? Here's what I'll say. I'm going to take this when. I know that I don't have

anything to do with it and no one really cares what I think about these things, but I'm willing

to be satisfied and to say, just let him, just let him be listed at 5.10.

Yeah, you will concede. You'll grant him 5.10.

I'll grant him 5.10. I still think he might be 5.9, but, but officially can be none of my business

anymore. I just, I, I found it insulting, Ben, that we were being asked to believe that it was

only an inch off from his listed height because again, you can't have had this man in such close

proximity to Jose, Jose Altuve for so long and expect me to believe it. You just, I,

we live in an age of unreality. We live in the age of mis and disinformation. We are routinely

asked not to believe our eyes granted often in circumstances far more serious than this,

but in this circumstance also, and it made me feel insane. It made me feel like my brain had

become mush and was seeping out of my ears. And so I needed this. I needed to know the truth

of it. And I, I don't know. I got there, but look, it's close enough. Okay. It's close enough.

I'm willing. Well, that's that's how the height exaggerators talk themselves into the exaggerations

because they're like, well, 5.9. I mean, you know, that's basically 5.10. It's just an inch away

from that. And if you're 5.10, well, you know, what's the difference really if I've 11, I mean,

what's an inch between friends and if I'm 5.11, well, then I, I could get away with six feet. And

then suddenly you've talked yourself into three extra inches of that's that's a few inches too far.

So if you want just too far, but I'm willing to grant that first thing in the morning,

fresh out of bed. Yes, stand up. You go stretch, stretch, stretch, stretch. And you stand up straight

because, hey, it all came together for you in the off season. You've been doing this dance

with short-term deals and opt-outs. So to speak. You, you, you still sometimes feel the shadow

of the sign stealing scandal. Sometimes you're at an exhibition game for team USA and dry and

fans are booing you and calling you a cheater. But no, you don't have to listen to that. You got

your deal. You're going to be, you know, an important part of a team with playoff aspirations.

You're being looked to as a leader, a mentor, a teacher. You stand up straight and they say,

Alex, you're 5.10. And Meg says, good enough. Okay. Somehow, OSEO 2.5 still 5.6. He's had his

net budget at all. Right. I thought there was going to be. He was good. No, he looks 5.6.

He looks 5.6. I was was confident that L2V was listed correctly because I'm 5.5. And, and my 5.5

is I will grant a stand-up straight 5.5. If I am slouching even a little bit, I lose at least

an inch. And then, you know, we're all getting older. So you're like doing this shrinking dance

with yourself. Wait down by the world in our prayers. Yeah. Yeah. And, you know, your bones feel heavy.

You know, you got heavy bones. But I would see L2V and I would see him at field level. And in spikes,

he would look like, you know, two, three inches taller than me. And so when I saw him at 5.6,

I was like, yeah, I bet that's right. But again, because I believed his height,

because his height struck me as reasonable, as true to life. I looked at Bergman and I was like,

you're a liar. You know, and again, it's not, it's not unique to him. This is a thing. No, it's

not that many men do. And, and to be clear, I'm not trying to disrespect our shortkings. You know,

I understand the societal pressure to lie about your height when you're a man. I get it. You know,

it's your fillers. You're great. You're just shadow boxing with expectation. So I get it.

I got it. But I'm just saying, now we can exist in a world that is fact-based. And I,

at least the most respect, speaking of players who are 5.9, and now are newly confirmed to be.

So last year when they first did these measurements, there were more guys who had significant

movement in height, perhaps not as many as we were expecting. But we talked about some at the time.

Gavin Lux was one. He went from 6.2 to 5.11 last year, which is, that's, you know, that's

look, points for, I guess, just going for it. Because usually if you're 5.11, you might try to

get away with 6 feet. But that's so common that maneuver that it's almost like, look, I'll just say

6.2. And then maybe people will be skeptical about 6.2, but they'll give me 6 feet. It's like

anchoring or something. It's like, let's name a high number. And then maybe I can make a slightly

lower and still exaggerated numbers on more believable. Anyway, Gavin Lux still 5.11 this year. But

we do have another 3-inch height drop. And we're about to talk about Josh Neler. It's not Josh.

It's the other Neler. It's bow. Yeah. Bow has been downsized from 6 feet even to 5 foot 9.

Wow. Yeah. Yeah. That's interesting. That's a bold move too. And let's see if you get it

away with it. And he did for a while. Well, you worry about little catchers, you know.

Yeah. True. Right. And so I get why you would lie. If you're a catcher, you'd be like, no,

I'm 6 foot. Don't worry about me. I can stand up to the rigors. There's more tolerance, I guess,

for shorter catchers because you know, catchers are known for for being a bit squat compared to

players of other positions, but not so much like you do want them to be big enough that. And maybe

it matters a little less these days because you don't have collisions so often. And with there's

less strain on the knees and everything too. So maybe being taller is easier now because of the

one knee down catching style, etc. But this has gotten some attention. And I saw people wondering

how this happened. And I was wondering too, because they did the measurements last year.

So what happened last year? Did he somehow escape the five nine last year?

Sort of camp that day or something. That's so I asked MLB about this actually, you know.

Gotta get to the bottom of this question. I love it. We are in the middle of like

simultaneous spring training and WBC action. Everyone who works for the league in any kind of front,

like forward-facing PR capacity is stretched to the absolute limit. They are all exhausted.

They hate every single one of us with a fire repassion. And you're like, hey, can you tell

me why Bonailer got smaller, but only now? Well, I did get an answer within an hour.

So kudos to that's impressive. Yeah, you know, I usually get answers from them quickly.

They're not always satisfactory answers, but they do answer me usually. So gotta give them that.

Because that's all I want. You know, if you're a media relations person, relate to the media.

You know, just there are certain teams won't name names, but you don't want me to name names,

because I have some names. I could name some. I won't. But I could. Yeah, they treated

as sort of adversarial, it seems. Yeah. Like they're protecting their players from, I don't know,

media members who have their own. I mean, they're kind of being honest about their job, I suppose,

they could fake it a little bit better and maybe make their lives easier in the long. Yeah,

who could say, yeah, they just don't get back to you or, oh, I ask is just say, if I submit an

interview request, just relay the request that the player says, no, that perfectly fine. But,

yeah, at least, you know, give me an answer, isn't that sort of your job? Anyway,

so I did get an answer quickly. And the answer is, because this had like actual implications,

because I was thinking, you know, because they've talked up the accuracy of this new system

and everything. So if someone could somehow be three inches off after having been measured,

then that would kind of cast out on the process. And whether we were getting accurate numbers now.

And it turns out that there were a few players who were not measured last year, just because

they were sick. The day the people came to do the measurements or they signed late or something.

Right. Right. Because ABS was not in operation during the regular season,

it was not, yeah, it was not as high a priority. So they were testing it during spring training.

But, yeah, it wasn't that big a deal. So in those cases, which include nailer. So he was,

he was not measured last year. And, and that's why. But now, obviously, they, but why wasn't he

measured last year? He just wasn't in camp that day or I think, I don't know this. Yeah, he may

have been just out or sick or whatever. But, yeah, he wasn't there. So it wasn't that he somehow

beat the system. I mean, I guess in a sense he did, but he, he didn't beat the, the measurements

somehow. Right, right. He just was not measured in this way. And so they were still using the,

the PR or, or self-reported height for him. And now he can't get away with that anymore. So get away

with it. Sorry, but get away with it. The days of being listed at six feet tall are over

for you. And, and I guess for everyone who is not actually close to being six feet tall. So,

there'll be some movements, you know, an inch here or there. I mean, some guys grow different day,

different time, whatever it is. But probably we're not going to be seeing three inch differences

so much anymore. So that is why this was just a straggler. And perhaps he is the last of his kind

to have gotten away with an exaggerated self-reported height for, yeah, this long, but no longer,

all right. And we, we actually got an email. I had not noticed this, but listener Rob noted that

there's some kind of database issue going on at the athletic. I, I don't know that I knew that

the athletic had player cards, but it does. And they have just some, yeah, they have some basic

standard stats and biographical details and then just articles that, players have been tagged.

That's the primary purpose. If you want to just go see all the articles that have mentioned

Shohei Otani or something, you can do that. But there's some kind of issue going on as we record

here at this afternoon, where the heights and weights are way off. So Shohei Otani on his athletic

player card is listed as 15 11 15 11 inches. You know, he's probably actually 15 9 or something,

but he's attacking on a couple inches. 15 11 95 pounds, which is, I mean, that's quite

out. Yeah. Slender man over here. I know. He's, he's like, he's like double Wembenyama height,

but half as heavy or something. This is, this would not be beneficial, I think, probably for

baseball purposes. I mean, that heightened weight. You'd, you'd want to see him, I think,

packs and pounds onto that frame. If he were actually 15 11 and then, I mean, the implications

for strike sound, strike zone size pretty serious at that height. I think Aaron Judge, I checked.

He is 16 9 currently 16 feet 9 inches 128 pounds. So a little bit beefier than Otani, because I

guess, you know, he has that extra 10 inches or so, but still quite slim. And Alex Breggman,

as measured by the athletic is 15 three. So, and he's, he's 98 pounds. He's a 98 pound

weakling, I suppose, but 15 15 three. So no, no wonder. No wonder. He thought he could get

away with it. No wonder. He can console himself. If he's upset about the 510, he can at least for

now go to his athletic player page and say, I'm a big boy. I'm 15 three. How about that? I'm a

big boy. This man has children. He doesn't say I'm a big boy. Bonailer also 15 three, but 93

pounds at the athletic. So yeah, I mean, we're going to get emails or maybe we can just anticipate

them. I, we have, I'm pretty sure that we did do an email answer once about a giant hitter

or just like a player who's so huge, like a defender who's so huge that he can just kind of

step on the base from anywhere in the infield. Like it's automatic force play. Like we definitely

did consider the implications of that at one point. But for a hitter, if you had that height

and the weight that would be commensurate with that height, and you had the strength, obviously,

you'd be able to hit the ball a long way, presumably if you got a hold of one, but talk about

a long swing and holes in the swing and a big strike zone. Tough to cover that zone. If you're

15, 16 feet tall, probably. So I think counterproductive. But these guys aren't even getting that benefit

there because, you know, they're getting blown over by a stiff wind at that weight and with that

height weight profile. So this would really, I think, be detrimental in all respects. Yeah, I think

that that would make it a little tricky. I think you'd be, you'd be undone. 15 feet. Imagine,

imagine facing a, I mean, it would be so strange, right? Because you're like, wow, 15 feet,

imagine what that fastball looks like coming in. He's not pitching in the WBCO, Tony. But like,

I don't imagine what that looks like. But then you're also like, yeah, but how much, how much

mustard are you getting on it? If you're only 95 pounds, you know, you're only not counterproductive.

Yeah. Well, on the subject of fastballs, though, this man is not 95 pounds, but Peyton Toli

of the Red Sox. There is a story. Quite a, quite a, quite a swing there. What do you say in about

Peyton? Ben, what, what's your point? Nothing at all. Just, you know, he's, he's tipping the scales

at triple digits. I think he's going, I'm a big boy. I don't think that's an any doubt really.

But he, Alex Spear wrote a piece at the globe about how Peyton Toli touched 100.4 miles per hour

in his spring outing against the Yankees. And this was evidently the Red Sox have a thing where

they give out t-shirts that say Fuego to pitchers. That's right. At least 100 in a game. And so Toli

sought out Andrew Bailey, pitching coach and pitching strategist Devon Rose and asked if they're doing

the t-shirts. And if he gets a t-shirt, he wants a t-shirt, et cetera. And you know, I always get

scared when, when guys are trying to throw as hard as they possibly can. And I guess he and

minor leagueer Juan Valera, he also got a Fuego shirt this spring. But it just gives me the

EBGBs when, when guys, or when you're rewarding guys explicitly for throwing a certain speed,

which we know can be kind of dangerous for pitchers. This doesn't really reassure me. And to be

fair, he's a hard-thrower. He was a hard-thrower before. And he's not sitting at that speed,

which is good. I think like his average for Seamer last year was 96.6. But he did max out at 100.8.

So he did that. But I just, I don't love the tradition of awarding something like trying to

get guys competitive juices flowing even more than they normally do. Just for throwing hard,

as opposed to having some sort of success. It's just purely for just amping up the Velo,

especially in spring training in early March. It's like, you know, typically historically we see

guys get stronger after the start of the season. And the Velocity starts to ramp up. And obviously,

gets warmer and everything. But it takes a little time for pitchers to build up their arms. And

because we know that this is such a dangerous, scary time for pitchers and injuries,

I just, I would not be encouraging this. And I don't know if it's like, because this was a,

I don't know if it was at Fenway South or at sewage written recently, George M. Steinbrenner

Field. We did get a Red Sox fan who confirmed that at least some Red Sox fans do refer to it as

Fenway South and don't muck around. So speak with the, the publics act Fenway South or whatever it

is. But yeah, yeah. I don't know whether there's extra juice to the Yankees Red Sox rivalry in

early March. But just saying I wouldn't be encouraging just set in Velo records and awarding t-shirts

or anything. Yeah. At this point in the season or really any point in the season, because

so particularly now. Guys already know that, yeah, of course, there's a benefit to the throwing

hard. And they're all trying to do that. But yeah, I just, yeah, ease off a little. It just,

it makes me more worried than it makes me encouraged. Yeah, I agree. You're, yeah, you just feel,

you feel a nerve, you feel a nervousness. Also, when it comes to spring training,

red a piece at Andrew Baal's sub stack, the, the former Astros AGM, he wrote something about

why spring training days start so early. This was, this was interesting. So it's like, why did

teams and players have to report at the crack of dawn? Like, why did they have to get there so early

to work out or practice or whatever they do? Because evidently, everyone complains about this and

no one likes it really. Yeah. But it's just an inertia thing or it's kind of an eyewash thing.

And I guess the, the most substantive reason would be that often you have one o'clock games and

so, okay, you sort of have to start early. But as he notes, they could just start them later.

There's no particular reason why they have to start that early, not as huge crowds. You know,

some of them aren't even broadcast really. If there's a road game, maybe you can't control it,

but that's only like 30% of games like the major league road games where you're actually sending

your real players and plus you could coordinate with other teams and you could just have later

starts potentially. But yeah. Also, he said even when there is a later start, they still report

super early. Yeah. And as he noted, like teams, we talked about this on our most recent bonus episode

sleep quality. Teams obviously place a lot of importance on that. And it's unrealistic,

ball rights to have to like get seven or eight hours if you're a young guy who's in spring training

to expect them to go to bed early enough to be able to get good sufficient sleep if you have to

report that early. So even from a just competitive standpoint, he thinks there would be an advantage

to just starting a little later. It's you hear the same thing about school, you know, kids getting

up super early to go and this was certainly an issue for me when I was a kid as a not a morning

person and a night owl, even then, and having to conform to that expectation and kids need more

sleep. And you know, it can be can be bad. So when you're hoping your brain is growing and everything

and you're being sleep deprived at that point. So he thinks there would be an advantage to starting

late. And he thinks that the reason why teams don't apart from just it's always been this way,

which I guess could apply to a lot of things about spring training, how long it is, et cetera.

But he thinks it's because if the team has success, well, you can never trace it back to,

well, this is because we had later report times in spring training and everyone was so well-rested.

So you can never really get a tangible benefit from it or you can never isolate. Yes, this is why.

But if you have an unsuccessful season or you have a slow start to the season,

then people will probably seize on this and say, oh, they were they were lax. They thought they

could just kind of waltz into the season and sleep late and not be working hard. And so he said

probably the media, certain members of the media might seize on this as, oh, they didn't prepare

well enough or they were too complacent. Or even certain veterans in the clubhouse might say,

the will wasn't there or there wasn't enough urgency or something. Because he cites an example

of a GM whom he doesn't specify musing or asking, why did the days start so early? And as

Paul noted, that's the GM. They could just have the days start later if they wanted to. They're

the decision maker, but they feel trapped by this. And I guess it's at least partly because of

the perception, like the downsides from a PR perspective are probably greater than the

upsides, maybe even from a competitive standpoint. So that's why. But this is among the many reasons

why I would not be cut out to be a professional athlete. Yeah. Yeah. Don't want to get up that early

and report to work, prefer to work from home and wake up whenever. I'm about to emerge from

weird ass Arizona time. I'm not looking forward to it. I'm about to go back to three hours.

That's right. Yeah. Mountain standard. Yeah. It's an interesting little interlude. It's the best

it's the best time of year, Ben. It's the best time of year. And I wish that I just lived in it

all the time. All the time, Ben. Why can't I just live in it all the time? Well, you could if

you moved to another area, maybe that's in that time zone all the time. But I want to be able to

have my cake and eat it in there. Yeah. Yeah. Also, we talked about Atlanta and how things have

gone poorly for them this year, with the injuries to Wildrip and Shwellenbach and Hassan Kim.

Then this is mentioned for Prof. Also, we haven't gone to the the Braves preview and we will

and we'll talk about all that. And we'll get to the Dodgers preview too. Things aren't going great

for the Dodgers from a pitching health standpoint either, which I mentioned just to say that, yes,

we know that the Dodgers are the super favorites. They're the best team in baseball. They have the

highest win total projection, et cetera. They actually, I think they have the highest world

series odds in fan graphs playoff odds history. Right now, they're sitting at 27.5% chance

the probability of winning the world series. And that's like triple any other team, the Mariners,

whom we are about to preview are 8.6. So obvious favorites and the projected win total still sitting

at 99, which is like 10 more than any other team. But the cracks in the foundation and the pitching

staff are starting to show that I think the Dodgers are in any trouble. They're going to be great,

obviously. But just when people are looking ahead and saying like, are they going to set records?

Are they going to challenge the single season wins record? Are they going to be a total juggernaut

or will it be more like last year where they peaked at the right time? But for much of the season,

they were kind of and disappointing. And they won only 93 games. That's when everything goes

wrong for them. They win only 93 games. I know, Crimey River. But same pictures for the most part

and those pictures are fragile and Blake Snell, who is foremost among those. Maybe he's having

some injury issues and he probably won't be ready for opening day. And then Gavin Stone,

who of course had a serious shoulder injury, but he's having some discomfort in that shoulder.

And Rocky Sasaki, as Michael Bowman blogged at fan graphs, looking quite shaky. Not so much from

a health standpoint is from a command and mechanical consistency standpoint. So it's still an embarrassment

of riches like Dodgers are going to be fine. But if you're trying to project, are they going to

lap the league and are they even going to try to or will they content themselves to just probably

being a 90 something win team? And you know, probably it's just easily winning that division,

but not setting any records or really blowing anyone away. I kind of lean more toward the latter

just because this kind of stuff, it's going to crop up all season. And I don't think the Dodgers

in most cases really took it easy last year. I don't think they were routinely saying,

eh, don't bother coming back. You know, we just need you in October. I think guys legitimately

did get hurt because those guys have a history of doing that. But there's also something to like,

well, we don't need you to rush back by opening day. Like we're going to be okay. We'll have

a river Ryan in the rotation or whatever, you know, we have the depth. But but yeah, like it's

going to be a Dodgers-esque pitching staff again with all that entails the good and the bad.

Yeah. And look, no one cares about my told you so it's but like we we told you so, you know,

part of what allows them to be as good as they are is that they have all this depth to call upon

is that they have the luxury of saying, hey, hey, don't rush it. You know, you don't have to

rush it. And oh, by the way, you're going to be backstopped by this like incredibly good bullpen. So

it's it's so rare. It's so rare for a team to get through a whole season with, you know, five or

six guys. And I think what sets them apart is like the quality of the options that they have behind

those guys, right? And if those guys get hurt or they underperform, well, hey, you got to really

deep farm system and go get go get new guys, you know, you could just try to go get some new guys.

That's the thing. It's like, well, not they're paying Rocky much, but they're paying Blake

Snow obviously. And for a lot of teams, you lose Blake Snow for however long. That's a big blow.

That's a problem. The Dodgers. It's like, yeah, yeah, they'll be all right. He'll come back whenever.

And to be clear, it's not not a problem for them. But it's not as big of a problem as it would be

for almost any other team, right? Like even even without Rocky's spring performance, which

is alarming, you know, and I feel like I end up being this weird contrarian when it comes to

the Dodgers. And I don't, I don't mean to be a contrarian. I don't want Rocky to not do well.

I did maybe invite people to consider whether they were overreacting to his really

fork in the postseason last year. I did issue that invitation. No one took me up on it.

Anyway, I'm sure that even if Rocky's spring were going better in a vacuum, they'd still

rather have snow than Rocky in the rotation at this juncture, just because you want to know

what you're getting. You want to have some reliability. You know, you want a guy who can

can give you, you know, working in the two threes from like an ERA or Fit Perspective is what I

mean by that. But they are positioned to whether it better than then most clips. So yeah, it's just

they're going to be great, but are they going to be great or they're going to be historically great.

And I think I'd probably lean more towards the former just because I don't think they have really

any incentive to pursue the historical greatness they're trying to pursue is just continuing to be

a dynasty and repeat. Right. Yeah. The way that they're measuring these things is not in regular

season terms. Like it's not that the regular season doesn't matter to them. You know, they obviously

have strong incentives to like win the division. They have strong incentives to try to get a buy,

especially if they have pitching injury stacking, you know, come September, they might look ahead

to the to October and say, wow, it's really great that we don't have to play in the wildcard round.

So it's not that that doesn't matter. And you know, there are professionals. They they have

individual incentives as players to do well. But the the sort of yardstick is just different

for them than it is for most clubs. And I think that they are careful and strategic about that stuff.

And if they run into a historically great regular season team, it's going to almost be on accident.

Right. It's not it's not that they're not concerned with the results, but they just, you know,

they want another trophy once also done. Yep. And it doesn't seem like their division rivals are

pushing them to quite the extent that they have some of them in recent years. And I guess 2024

was kind of the worst case scenario because they did enter the postseason with a just drastically

diminished rotation. And they were trying to piece it together with a good bullpen. And then

they won the World Series anyway. So even though everything went wrong for them that year, they still

won. And then last year they had the great rotation. And it was really rounding into form at the

right time. And the bullpen was bad. And they still made that work. So I guess everyone watch out if

they actually enter October with a good rotation and a good bullpen at the same time. Well, maybe

that's the year that they'll just have another early round loss because it's baseball can't predict

it's season. And the last thing that I will note, there's been a lot of talk about the creativity

of slides. Sam Miller has written about this. Yeah. Apple hunting and Zach Kreiser has written

about this. And he just addressed this again in his sub stack, the bandwagon. And it's hard to

quantify. It's hard to measure. But Sam's perception, Zach's perception was that players have

gotten more inventive when it comes to sliding and various maneuvers and swim moves and whatever

else. And that in the past, if the ball beat you, you would just accept your fate essentially.

And now no one does. It's always you're trying to do some sort of spit move or something.

And Sam even suggested that like if you get stuck in a pickle, you shouldn't even do what

what teams have done historically or players trying to evade a pickle, just, you know, try to stay

away and go back and forth. But you should just run toward the base and try to do some clever fancy

slide because that seems to be the best way to evade the out these days. But it's hard to quantify

because what are you going to do? Watch every single slide. And it's it's yeah, it just seems

super time intensive and kind of subjective. But Zach took a run at it and he did a little study.

And he just looked going back to 2016, which I think was the first season he could easily access via

MLB.com's video search. And he looked at outs. I guess non forced outs where a tag was applied

at home plate in 2016 and 2025. And he watched 50 of those. And he just tagged them as like, well,

was it a head first slide? Was there a swim move? Was there any attempt to dodge the tag? And it's

a smaller sample. I'm not saying it's definitive. But he did find that head first slides have become

more common in the sample that he recorded here went up from 12% in 2016 to 32% in 2025.

And I think we had some data in a previous step last about head first sliding versus

foot first sliding. Also 40% of runners attempted a dodge according to Zach's classifications in 2016.

And that was up to 52% of runners this past season. And swim moves were like 4% in each. But

there've been some creative kinds of moves. So it does seem as if there's something to it based on

this research. And there are lots of reasons why this would be true. Obviously replay review

probably being the primary one, because there's just more incentive to actually evade the tag

in the past. It might have just been well. The ball beat him. He's out. But now you can appeal that.

And if you actually manage to avoid the tag, then you can be safe. So it makes sense to put extra

effort into it. Plus just generally increasing athleticism of players. So I think it's true. I think

this is at least one interesting attempt to bring a little data to bear in this discussion.

And I like it. I think it's good. And Zach credits like Javi Baez. And how everyone was

obsessed with his both applying tags, but also avoiding tags. And Sam has tried to trace

like who started the swim move and has talked about like one Pierre and Kenny Loft. And it wasn't

unheard of in the past. But it does seem to be becoming more common. And I think that's good.

And as Zach says, like once something gets established as the analytically correct move,

then it becomes standardized and everyone does it. And then it's a little less interesting.

So he kind of wants it to remain in this zone where not everyone does the exact same move

every time because it's unpredictable and it's surprising. And it's visually interesting. So

he kind of doesn't want this to be quantified, even though he sort of made a little attempt to

quantify it too. But that's the help. Like it's got to be worth at least trying to evade a tag

as supposed to just resigning yourself to your fate. And unless there's more of an injury risk or

something, you might as well go for it. And it's fun because like you assume that someone's

going to be out. You look cool. Yeah. And it's one of the more impressive. Like you're not going to

get some sort of football move exactly or you're not going to get like, you know, leaping backward

over someone entirely. But occasionally you do get something that's kind of close to that. And

yeah, it's really impressive because you just as a viewer, you accept, uh, he's out. And then, uh,

what were spared from that fate? Wow. And then it's when you watch the replay, it just gets better

and better because you appreciate the athleticism of like, oh, he stopped. And then he,

he fainted and he dodged. And it's, yeah, it's great. So if this has, in fact, become more

pervasive, and it makes sense to me that it has than, uh, I think that's good. And I think it

should remain more pervasive. And I guess you wouldn't end up with everyone just sort of, well,

this is the best way to slide or to avoid a tag. So I'll just do that same move over and over

because then the meta will change. Like the fielders will expect that maneuver. And then you'd

have to do something different. So it'll absolutely change, hopefully. Yeah. And it does feel like a

place where I'm mindful that there is a range of athletic moves that would result in a successful

dodge. It's not like it's, it's an infinite continuum of individuality, but it does strike me as

a place where there is a lot of room for a guy to like have his move, you know, to like have a

thing that she pulls, yeah, pulls off, particularly well. And to your point, you know,

fielders will adapt and race runners will have to sort of adapt back. But I don't know. I think

it's pretty cool. I like it. Yeah. It looks cool. Be cool. Yeah. Okay. Well, keep doing it. And

and it's a nice rebuttal, I think, to all the complaints about fundamentals and as well players.

And maybe there's something to that in some cases that they're not as well drilled or

schooled in certain rules and situations. But this is an area where I don't know if you'd call

it a fundamental exactly because in the past, it wasn't not that they're, you know, you had all

sorts of hook slides and comm managing to find a corner of the base or something. But yeah, I think

this has gotten more inventive and creative and that's a testament to the athleticism of players.

So good for them. And now let's talk about the Mariners followed by the Marlins. And and we'll

talk about the other nailer Josh in just a moment here. And I see that his height has remained

unchanged. So last year, he was listed at 510. And his brother Boe was at six feet. And now Josh

is still at 510. But Boe is at 590. So now, yeah, Josh, Josh in reality. And also in public

perception is now taller than his brother after being a couple inches, quote, unquote, shorter.

Oh my gosh. To have come up with them, right? Cause they absolutely know how tall they are in

relation to each other. You know, Josh had to be like, Oh, come on. Like you're telling me you're

two inches taller than than I am. That's a must be vindication. Like Josh on some level has to

be happy that I've busted down to five nine here. Yeah. I do appreciate that he, we tire of

it's a little in the preview with with damage. But I'm struggling to think of a time when a

fan base has responded to a guy quite so strongly and when a guy in a way that feels different

than than Harper. But I suppose is like, you know, variation on the same theme. Like Josh

Naylor just keeps showing up to camp in like a different Seattle sports teams Jersey. I want to

know who his Jersey supplier is because he's he's really covering all of his bases. And you know,

like it's great. He'll he'll do Seahawks. He'll do storm. He'll, you know, he's he's Canadian. So

he loves the Kraken. He's going to the Super Bowl with the guys. He's just like Seattle's the

best. I love Seattle. Yep. We're really, we're really easy to please in a lot of ways. You know,

and not nearly as aggressive as people from Philly were. Yeah. He is taking a page out of the

Bryce Harper panda. Yeah. But we're just like, and you like the jogs and he's he's he's a nice guy.

Yeah. And the other day when when Jen Powell was, uh, nothing beyond a play and he went up and

and shook her hand and then people asked him about it. And he said, uh, what did he say? He just,

he wants to be inclusive. No matter race, no matter gender, it's not hard to be inclusive and

welcoming and happy. Nice sentiment. Not when you often hear professional baseball players express.

So good vibes, guys. Seems like everyone likes having him around. Yeah. Okay. Well, let's talk about

him and his teammates in just a moment with Ryan Davish.

Yeah.

Why?

I think I speak for five guys.

They send our emails that flashed.

Every week. Bring down your favorite past time. Sit down, relax and unwind.

All right, we are ready to talk about the Seattle Mariners, something we do fairly often

on the podcast, but we'll be focusing on especially during this segment, which will star Ryan

Divers, who covers the Mariners for the Seattle Times and is once again joining us to preview

the upcoming season.

Welcome back, Ryan.

Good to be back.

So successful season, right?

Last year, not so bad.

Tell us a little bit about how the Mariners were feeling coming off of that season, establishing

themselves seemingly, finally, as the class of the division, even heading into an off-season

and season as the favorites.

If not just only in the division, some might say even in the league, I don't want to jinx

anything.

And I'm even saying such optimistic things about the Mariners, but hard not to feel pretty

good about the team coming off of last year, despite them ultimately being thwarted in

their playoff run.

I started doing, I started coming in the Mariners in 2006, I started doing spring training

in 2008.

I've done every spring training since then.

I don't recall a time where there was this much optimism and this much, this many expectations

about a team in all those years.

I mean, like there were years where you thought, okay, these guys are pretty good.

They can make the post season or they're pretty good.

Maybe they could challenge for the division.

You walk in now.

It's like, and a lot of times those, those teams like the Marco Gonzales teams and stuff, they

would always tell you, no, we're better than you guys think we are, we're good.

But like you walk into this camp and they're not telling us that they're good.

We know they're good.

Everybody knows they're good.

It's so different.

I never once went in and said, this is a team that should win the division and should probably

play in the world series if everything goes right.

I've never once said that.

I mean, anytime where they had post season, I thought they'd predict them to be a post season.

It was always, well, if this happens or if this happens, if this guy has a breakout

year, like to me, if these guys just played kind of to their standards, that's as good

as a team as I've ever covered.

Yeah, it's like, it's less about what would have to go right than what would have to go

wrong.

I guess.

Oh, exactly.

Exactly.

I mean, like, and I think it's every team is about injuries and such, but like with the

Mariners, like I look at their lineup and it's not like wowing and like the Dodgers,

where it's like one through five or the like these huge stars.

But if you look at their lineup one through nine, especially their projected lineup against

right handed starters, it's, it's really, really good lineup.

That I probably have not covered at lineup this strong because even in the years of Kanau,

Cruz and Seeger, Jean Segura, the joy that was Jean Segura, like their bottom four spots

were pretty weak.

This isn't like that.

This is the deepest and like most consistent lineup I've seen from them.

And it is going to have some new faces or at least one new and one new-ish face.

The Mariners had sort of a funny offseason in which they, they did a lot of their shopping

very early and then they had the rest of it come together late.

So maybe we can start with what made them so enthusiastic about bringing Josh Naylor back.

And then we can talk about the Brendan Donovan trade because I think that prior to that

trade, a lot of Mariners fans were looking at this saying like who's going to play third

base?

You don't seem to have one on the roster.

How is this in field going to come together?

And to your point, it looks like a much more cohesive group now and a more versatile one

with Donovan.

I've talked to us about Naylor and then let's talk about Donovan.

Yeah, so like with Josh Naylor, I've never really seen a player come in in a trade and

reach like called to show status exactly.

I mean, it is.

And like how much fans embraced him and granted like Mariners fans were a unique bunch,

man.

I'm sorry, but they are.

You're a unique bunch of folks.

And the maple grove to, you know, tie a France berets and all this stuff, they love.

They like a bit.

Yeah, they love a bit.

They love their players and they love the little kind of quirkiness of it.

But like Josh Naylor came in and it was, they liked everything about him as a player,

like the intensity that he plays with and the kind of like the drive.

And then you looked at their lineup and here's the guy that comes in and doesn't strike

out quite as much and is willing to work at bats.

And then he started stealing bases and all these other things.

And it was just kind of a really good fit, like that kind of intensity and kind of the

edge that he plays with.

Because I've said this about this Mariners team, like this group of guys that have come

up through the organization.

They're the nicest group of human beings that I've ever covered, like legitimately good

people, you know, Logan Gilbert and Cal Raleigh, George Kirby, they're all nice, even

Julio, like they're, they have every reason to not be like good people, but they are, that's

just who they are.

And then you, but sometimes you need that edge and like Josh Naylor plays with an edge on

the field.

And I think that intensity helped them.

But I think just the fit, like I said, like his, he's more bad to ball.

He's not a huge strikeout guy.

He embraced being in Seattle, which a lot of guys that get their don't and it just all

worked.

And God bless Jerry DePoto for being open about everything and just being transparent,

like the day the season or the day out, a couple days after the season ended, and even

going towards the playoffs, they said that, look, bringing Josh Naylor back would be a priority

because of how he fit and how the fans embraced him and how well he fit in with their club

and how much the players liked him, like they want this team likes to work.

And what we've seen in the past is if you don't work and you don't prepare, you get

shunned pretty quickly and you get, you know, moved out of town pretty quickly.

We call it the Jesse Winkert theorem.

And so I think, you know, when Naylor arrives and guys like Julio and Kyle and, you know,

these guys embrace him and they think, hey, we got to have him and they're talking about

how much they like him, how much they want him back.

The organization listened and they went out and, you know, got a free agent, a free agent

position player.

They've ever spent on a free agent position player in Jerry DePoto's era.

And you know, it was such a no-brainer in terms of the fit.

And they got it done.

What's crazy, too, is this is like, and I know we haven't written it yet.

My buddy, Adam Judas, writing it, he's doing like a, Josh Naylor's opening interview when

he came back for spring training was so good and so long, like almost 40 minutes that

we're doing three stories on it.

One is the, you know, obviously one was the story about him and the dog Tucker, you know,

and then one is a dog.

Yeah, one is about like Naylor embracing sports culture in Seattle and wearing the different

jerseys from all the teams.

And then the other one is about Josh Naylor telling the Mariners, I want to sign early,

the money, he was like, he didn't really care that much about the money.

I mean, obviously he cares.

But like, if all things were equal, he was going to sign with the Mariners and he told

the Mariners that he wanted to get it done and get it done early.

So he wouldn't hold them hostage during the off season.

So they can move on and add other pieces because they told him they were looking at

Brendan Donovan.

He's like, I love that guy.

I'm going to sign early so you guys can get this done.

You're not waiting around for me to get it figured out.

And then, you know, you miss out on players that could help us.

So let's get it done and move.

And I think that's, that's really cool and it's really smart on his part.

And so it all worked.

They got it done early and, you know, then we get to Brendan Donovan who they try.

I honestly, the, the framework for the deal that they made, at least the part about

Durangel, essentially going to the Cardinals, that was a great upon in like November when

they first approached Hyam Bloom about it.

Hyam Bloom is known to be very meticulous and very kind of, kind of methodical when making

deals.

And he went in and I think part of the problem was is he went and he took over the organization,

Cardinals organization.

And like the reports that they had on other teams' prospects from their pros, gouts and

stuff, like, I don't know if he didn't, wouldn't say he didn't trust it.

But he wanted to use his guys and all of his metrics and algorithms to run through all

the prospects of all the teams that they were looking at trading Donovan to.

And there were a lot.

I mean, like, I would probably venture to guess that 15 teams were interested in adding

Brendan Donovan for a lot of reasons.

The Mariners were always one of the first ones they, well, they tried last year to get

them to in last off season.

And so, you know, there's a, they had the, the initial framework of Sincha and some other

pieces.

And then, well, the kind of hang up was they were going to, they were offering Williamson

and Sincha to the Cardinals and the Cardinals, like Ben Williamson doesn't fit their window.

He's older.

You know, he's on the 40 man like they want guys that aren't on 40 man's prospects younger.

And Williamson didn't fit that.

And so these as they were trying to get it worked out, these two dudes that you guys are familiar

with Dave Cameron and Jeff Sullivan kind of had some texts about Ben Williamson.

And the raise weren't kind of, weren't aware that Ben Williamson, the most raised player

that ever Raid was available for a deal.

And so once, you know, Eric Neander jumps in with Bloom and with Jerry, it just, it happened

quick.

You know, you move the picks and everything gets kind of slotted out in the three way trade.

But Brendan Donovan is like a mixture between nailer in terms of intensity and everything

he does.

And kind of like Cal Raleigh, you know, just kind of how they go about their business.

And he fit in perfectly like within days, these guys were all just raving about how

Brendan Donovan fits in with their mindset and their kind of, their culture.

And you know, the fact that he can play second or third, he even stand in the left field

if you need him.

And a 360, 361 crew on base percentage that fits really nicely with what they want to

do.

Julio is so good that it's hard not to get greedy and to extrapolate the portions of

his season when he's hitting well to the entire season.

And imagine what that would mean.

That's, he's probably sick of hearing and talking about his slow starts, but it is

a perennial pattern.

And I know that he has tried to do some things differently in the past to get off to a

faster start.

Is he talking about that?

Is he doing anything this year to try to break this pattern finally?

Yeah, you know, we haven't like specifically just said, hey, how do you get off to a faster

start?

I think he knows it.

And it's like asking him about that or asking about swing changes that just, you know,

he kind of like shuts it down on that he doesn't like to talk about it.

But I do think that from a mental standpoint and like a maturity standpoint, he's in a

better place than he's ever been in terms of having an approach that is sustainable for

more consistent success.

I look at the last few years coming in, I know I wrote about it, but like there was always

kind of, there was a stance change, there was a swing change, there was an approach change

and there was a lot of different voices also telling what he needed to do at the plate,

you know, pull side power, we need this, we need that.

And I think he didn't really have, and it's crazy to think about it because he's so good,

he's been a star for as long as, you know, he existed because that's, he's always believed

he was going to be a star.

But like he didn't have an identity of who he was as a hitter, like an approach, an outcome,

kind of things like what he was trying to do other than just be good at the plate.

And I think last year, it started to come together, I think working with Edgar Martinez

and the simplification that Edgar kind of measures things with and how he goes about it,

I think was, was really good for Julio and I think the big thing was is like he stopped

trying to pull the ball and he actually pulled the ball a little bit more or with a little

bit more success.

I think he tried to stay more to all parts of the field and he realized too that his

ability to drive the baseball to right center is special and not a lot of guys can do

that.

So why, why go away from that?

And so I think like all this stuff, like you just seemed like a different player that

second half and in understanding who he was and what he was trying to do, you know, we

saw the strikeouts decrease, the strikeout rate decrease some, you know, I thought like

from the last two months, he was one of the best players in baseball and then you look

at it.

We're going to now like, yeah, 798 OPS, he had 32 homers, stole 30 bags and this is

with like two months where it was really bad, like it wasn't good at all.

So if he's just even sort of good or even average, like in those two or three months,

like what is it?

We're talking 40, 40.

I mean, I think that's, you know, if he puts it all together, we're talking 40, 40,

right?

Like he's, you know, 900 OPS more, it's just, it's crazy.

I think he was searching for slug and tried to force it while also trying to reduce the

strikeouts and just was a weird spot.

I think he was trying to figure out who he was as a hitter.

I think it's in a better spot this year.

And I do think that going and playing in the WBC games helps him a little bit as well,

you know, you get ratcheted up, you have really, really competitive at bats and I think

that's going to help him as well.

I want to take us back to the infield because we talked about Donovan sort of helping

them to solve at least part of their infield puzzle.

He brings versatility.

This is an era of Mariners baseball where not all, but a lot of their most promising prospects

are actually position players.

So talk to us about how the rest of this group fits in.

Is there room for Colt Emerson to sort of force the issue and make the opening day roster?

And if he does, how do they think about playing time with him, Cole Young and JP Crawford?

You know, going in, I think there was a chance for him to make the roster.

It was going to be kind of a narrow fit because I think they really want Cole Young to be

there every day second basement or close to it.

Basically, my thinking was is that like Cole was going to have to play his way back to

AAA during spring for that to happen because I think they know that like Colt is still,

you know, well, very talented, also very inexperienced at the upper levels.

And I think, you know, the trajectory is strong, but at the same time, I think they

would feel more comfortable if he started the season of AAA and played for a while.

So I'm not seeing like Cole has played well enough here to kind of keep his spot.

And you can't have Colt Emerson on your roster unless you're going to play him all the

time.

And I just don't know that there's a fit.

They're really left handed as roster as it is.

So I think he's going to start the season in AAA and be ready to go if Cole were to struggle

or if JP were to be, you know, the shoulder issue creeps up with JP again or somebody

goes on the aisle, I think he's going to be called up and debut.

Also they weren't, you know, a year ago at this time, they weren't expecting Cole to

progress or Colt to progress as fast as he did through the minor leagues and have the

success.

And now they put him into coma for the AAA for the PCO playoffs because Leo Rivas got

called up and they needed a shortstop there.

And I mean, but you know, this is a kid that started out in high A, which AA, there was

in AAA by the end of the season.

His last year accelerated his path to the big leagues.

And I don't know that they were expecting that because there were questions internally

going in to last season, whether or not he would stick a shortstop, all these other

things.

And so Colt answered a lot of those and kind of sped up his timeline and the Mariners

are kind of adjusting to that as well.

Okay.

Cal.

So I talked a lot last year about his history of actually hitting better later in the

season despite never seeming to take a day off because I was trying to project well.

What is his pace and can he keep it up?

And for once he did actually hit worse after the All Star break than before, but I think

we can give him a pass given that he had a 176 WRC plus before the All Star break.

Pretty tough to top that.

And he declined, quote unquote, all the way to 140 after the All Star break.

So not too shabby.

So what's a realistic baseline or expectation for him, I guess, because it would be hard

for a year like that, not to be a career year really for anyone.

He wasn't the MVP, but he was the star of the season in the AL.

So how much regression should we expect?

How huge a power hitter does he see himself as now, you know, like what should fans

realistically think they're going to get out of him and will there ever come a point

where he plays a little less or catches a little less?

We'll never see a season like that from a catcher ever again.

I'm pretty I'm pretty certain of that.

Like I don't make a lot of predictions in that regard.

Like that certainty, but a 60 home or season from a catcher, just I don't think we'll

ever see that.

You know, obviously, and I think he knows is like, that's not because he didn't believe,

you know, when he hit 50, he thought that was a ton.

So I mean, like he hit 34 the two years before that, I think given kind of how he's figured

out some of it, like what he wants to do at the play, staying behind the ball and how

to elevate it from both sides of the play and being like a superviable right handed here

now.

Like I'm thinking 40 home runs is very realistic, especially if he plays 155 to 160 games

on me, he played 159 games last year.

I think he wondered is it going to slow him down or whatever, but he doesn't believe

that it does.

He believes that playing more actually keeps him better, where is his favorite thing is

motion is lotion.

The more he plays, the better he feels that when he takes a couple days off or whatever

that that's when he starts to feel sore.

So you know, somebody asked him if he could catch 125 games this year, and he took that

like personally, like, of course, I can.

Like he was bothered by somebody questioning whether he could catch 125, because in his

mind, he wants to catch 135, you know, and then D H, you know, the other 33 or whatever

is a 33.

I don't know.

He wants that he wants to catch, and he has a sense of responsibility about the pictures

and how the defense is run that like, I wouldn't say it's trust issues where he doesn't trust

other people to do it, but he just he has a belief in that he needs to be back there

more often than not.

And so every year we hear, oh, we got it, they got to get him rest and, and I guess I'll

believe it when I see it, because he's going to push to play.

Now to them, an off day is a D H day, but I'm assuming he'll catch 130 games again this

year.

I don't see why wouldn't, you know, barring injury, if he's healthy, he's going to want

to be back there, because he is kind of likes to be in control of everything.

Sounds like a good reason to trade Harry Ford.

Yeah.

Kind of surprising it took as long as it did candidly, you know, we talked about Cold

Emerson, but I'm curious are there other guys sort of floating around the high minors

who you think are first to get the call in the event that something happens to the opening

day group?

Warming like, as Logan Gilbert said to me, well, you only write about the prospects, the,

you know, obviously the talk of early camp was cold, but it's been Kate Anderson and Ryan

Sloan.

I mean, for Kate Anderson, never throwing a professional pitch in a game, he's on a pretty

accelerated pace and Ryan Sloan, this man, child at 20, he's got a face of a 12 year

old in a body of like Garrett Cole or a unicorn, yeah, did he say centaur, centaur, sorry,

yes, centaur.

Well, you could be unicorn too, like, or a fun, but no, but I would think that those

two will debut at some point during the regular season.

I don't know when, you know, obviously there's always some attrition to your, your starting

rotation.

That was a big problem with the manors last year, but like, they're going to both go to

high, high A and ever it and start there.

I think they'll be in double A relatively quick and from there, like if the starter goes

down for a while, they have Emerson Hancock, but I mean, like, if you have two starters

out, I think one of those guys will be up and I'm like, it's, to me, it's not impossible

to see Ryan Sloan pitching relief in the postseason coming in for one inning, you know,

as part of his growth to being a starter, coming for one inning and just blowing guys

away with 100 miles an hour of fastball that cuts and rides at the same time and I need

to see him or that he hasn't thrown in the game, but it's just nasty.

Like, I think those are guys that they will help this mariner's team have success this

year at some point or another.

Yeah, the 2024 group was definitely marked by its consistency in the rotation.

They were shockingly healthy and obviously they had injuries to most of the guys in

the starting five last year.

Maybe we can start with two of them that sort of had a step backward, hopefully for their

sake as a result of injury.

Talk to us about what went wrong for George Kirby and sort of how he's planning to course

cracked because watching George Kirby walk guys is an uncomfortable experience.

I think it's his command is well known enough that it's even uncomfortable for people

who aren't mariners fans, but what went wrong for Kirby and how does he kind of write

the ship this year?

I just think everything got off to kind of a wonky start for him, you know, was what two

weeks or a week into spring training or maybe two weeks in and also, you know, he had

shoulder fatigue and inflammation and that set him down and I think he I think he worked

hard to get back at an accelerated pace and just wasn't like the whole kind of routine

of it all was kind of off, you know, and talking with some of their coaches, everybody thought

it was health, but it was also the mentality that he had when he came back and they were

just kind of like some of the intent with what he was trying to do wasn't the same as

before and just kind of got in his head a bit and he admitted that that, you know, he kind

of got away from what he, who he was and what he was trying to do.

Part of the walks came from the idea that he was trying to be too fine and trying to

always throw the perfect pitch and that isn't really who George is.

It was like, no, I'm just going to throw it down the middle because I think my stuff's

really good and I throw strikes and I never want to throw a ball.

So you know, in talking with him and talking with some of the pitching coaches, they felt

like towards the end last year, he was a lot different.

He'd made some kind of changes to how he was like the intent with what he was doing on

the mound and how he was trying to get hitters out.

I know a lot of people blame his arm slot.

Oh, the lower arm slot is bad and missing that.

I think it's more of a natural arm slot.

And another thing was he got away from the splitter last year.

You know, he doesn't like his breaking balls are good pitches, but they're not like wipe

out swinging mispitches.

He'll get swing a miss.

But the splitter offered the one thing that was really kind of would generate a swing

and miss and he just put it in his pocket because he couldn't command it.

He didn't like it.

It just didn't feel right.

And part of that was, you know, I think missing six weeks to start the season.

So he didn't use it.

And I think that's a big reason why too is that when you don't have that wipe out pitch

and you're in the zone as much as he does, you get a lot of foul balls and you get a lot

of stuff and counts get longer and all of a sudden that's how you run into walks is

if you don't, you know, you get to two strikes quick and you can't put a guy away.

That's how you inevitably get into walks.

And I think it's also the mindset of why he got a little too fine with his command or

try to be too fine because he didn't have that put away pitch that may be needed.

And I think he's been throwing the splitter this year and it's looked really good.

I think that's going to be a big piece of why he's going to be successful.

I think I wrote in the paper that I predicted it predicted him to finish in the top three

inside on voting this year.

Not bad, bold, but, but fair.

Take us through the rest of the rotation.

I guess particularly the back, Bryce Miller, for instance, obviously there were issues

late last year in the postseason, Brian Wu was hurt and Miller had to fit in.

So how does the rest of that situation shape up?

Of course, Logan Evans, the other Logan had Tommy John surgery in January.

So what's the depth like and who would be next up potentially?

So yeah, like the, you know, Logan Gilbert, us to get the front, I don't know if he starts

an opening day or not, but, you know, he's coming back off off of kind of a difficult

year as well is, you know, just wasn't very efficient, you know, after going 200 innings

the year before, 200, 200 guy, then just the flexor kind of creeped up.

And I think first time in his life, he'd ever been on the IEL.

So I think he's kind of done some revamping on how he wants to do things.

And I think he'll, he should be better Brian Wu had a breakout year last year.

He was outstanding.

I mean, he really was and, you know, he kind of moved up the food chain in terms of who

their front line starters are, you know, I think we'll see him as either the one or the

two, you know, him and Logan and then slotted out from there.

And you know, with him, it's just so efficient and just the fastballs and how he does stuff.

Like he's not trying to add, he's just trying to get better.

I think that's big for him.

And then the, the back end will be Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller.

I mean, Bryce Miller is dealing with a little bit of an oblique side issue.

They won't call it an oblique strain because it didn't really register on the strains,

like when they had the MRI, but he just had some soreness in his side.

He's already throwing a game, but it is all like I, I think we were all certain he was

going to have surgery to remove the bone spurs in his elbow.

He didn't, he had a found an injection that worked better, you know, it was kind of

lary of it.

And I thought we saw like the injection he got last year towards the end helped him and

he was much better in the post season.

He was one of their better pitchers in the post season.

He's going to be better, I think simply because he was pitching through some discomfort

early on and just never got back and they didn't have a solution for it, but they think

they found a solution with this send visc injection.

It's like a gel.

So I expect him to be have a bounce back.

And then Luis Castillo, you know, like, wasn't what three years ago, this dude was throwing

like 99 and everybody was talking about he's the ace and now everybody's thinking, well,

you got to trade him because he's not even good anymore.

He still takes the ball 30 times.

And I think at the at the number of five, if you're technically, if you're number four

and five or Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller, those are good problems to have your rotation,

you know, like people are like, oh, man, they're just the five.

I mean, like, I don't know that people understand what number five pitchers look like on other

teams, but like, that's, you know, Luis Castillo going out there and taking the ball 30 times

and really, he only had the really, really bad stretch in August.

His Velo dip to Bay command was often they had found something kind of wonky in his mechanics

and they cleaned it up and then all of a sudden it got better again.

So there's five guys.

Let's say they even got 25 starts out of all those guys.

I mean, that's a really good rotation.

It's going to put up good numbers.

That's sure they didn't get that as much.

Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans were able to fill in and be really good.

I mean, if I had told Meg last year that Bryce Miller would miss three months of the season,

George Kirby was missed six weeks, Logan Gilbert would miss six weeks, and the Mariners

would win the A.L. West.

She would never believe me.

She'd ask me what I was drinking, you know, like, and I think, I think, or if a comment

had hit the city of Houston, but like, that's their poised to have a better year from

the rotation.

And the depth would be Emerson Hancock who has looked really good this spring and it's

kind of, you know, continually progressed.

They think a lot of people when he was taking what five felt like he was going to be ready

to go, but they've had to rework some stuff with him.

He's found a sweeper that works.

It's about 70 miles an hour to go with a gyro slider, refining his fastballs to understand

that you need to throw a two and a four, and he still has the really good change up.

I think he's going to be pretty effective for them in that spot starter role.

They also have Cooper Crieswell who they picked up from the Red Sox, and he's, you know,

he saw it's got the different arm angles.

He'll be there.

He could be a spot starter, but given that he's out of options, he'll be the long guy

and the bullpen if all the guys in rotation are healthy.

And so, you know, they have those two guys, and then after that, it's the kids, you know,

they could see him up, but they need him.

That's, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw him.

This bullpen group projects quite well, and it's a lot of familiar faces, although there's

a couple of new ones you noted, Crieswell, and then also Jose A. Ferrier, hopefully putting

the A in there.

And we should maybe linger on Ferrier for a moment before we talk about the rest of

the group, because I joked that it kind of took him a long time to trade Harry Ford,

and Ferrier was the, you know, the return for that.

So what did they see in him that made them comfortable parting with Ford?

They had been willing to move Harry for a while, like you had mentioned, I can't believe

they had traded sooner, but like just he was a part of a lot of packages that they were

trying to do in the, you know, at the deadline last year and the off season before that.

What they like him for rare is another left-handed power arm who throws strikes and attacks,

you know, they like that kind of aspect, just get after guys, attack, attack, attack.

He does that.

You know, they need a complement to Gabe Spire who threw a ton last year.

So they were looking for a left-handed arm that had some, you know, leverage experience.

And you know, Ferrier's peripheral numbers last year aren't great, like the main numbers

I guess, but like you go dig into a little deeper and like it was two or three bad outings

that really turfed his ERA and some of the other stuff.

This guy throws strikes, he throws a lot of strikes.

I think the one thing they're trying to impress upon him is that it's great that you have a

sinker and you can use it all the time, but if you just use your change up and you're sliders

a little bit more, that sinker plays up even more than it already does, but they love the

ground ball rate, they love how he attacks and gets ahead and throw strikes.

I mean, that's the one thing if you want to pitch in the mirror as bullpen, you better throw

a lot of strikes unless you're Carlos Vargas and out of options, but like that's how you do that.

And so like now you have leverage arms, Munoz, Prash, Gabe Spire and Ferrier as your

leverage back of the game guys. And then you have Bizarro as your pivot guy to get to them.

And then the rest of the bullpen is kind of pieced together with Chris Well and

Vargas. And then my guess is Casey Lagomina would be the last guy in the bullpen.

One more position I wanted to ask about. We talked about the outfields shaping up to be

pretty solid. Obviously Julio and Randy. But then in right, they're banking on a bounce back

from Victor Robles who didn't play a lot last year and didn't play well when he did play.

And that was coming off of just that extraordinary midseason post acquisition turnaround that he

made for the Mariners the previous year. And then he signed that extension. So what are they hoping

for realistically out of him? And then I guess Luke Rayleigh would be another guy who sees some

outfield time and would also be in line for a bounce back. They would hope because

those guys combined were roughly replacement level for the Mariners last year.

I think they're going to platoon those guys in right field. They'll move Don Kenz on to the

the DH along with Rob Refsnider. And Refsnider can go beyond the outfield some too.

But I think they're going to try and use those guys in a platoon. I think they felt like

I think they understood, you know, Robles pushed to get back because they thought he was done

for the season. You know, it was such a gruesome injury on that catch and how it happened.

They really didn't think he would be back last year. And you know, that he got back was a bonus.

But he you could tell like the amount of time missed. He just didn't look like the same player.

And Rayleigh pretty much, you know, he suffered the oblique strain and then, you know, had back

issues and all this stuff. He pretty much just played through the oblique strain all year.

It never really went away. And it led them issues with the back. And he just tried to play through

it because they were good. You know, he wanted to contribute. And the guy who had 25 homers

the year before. So I think they feel like if by platooning them, you put them in your best

position to have success. You know, you have Kenz on who can go out there if needed. You have

Refsnider. You have enough versatility that like if one of those guys is scuffling, you don't have

to play him, you know, all at all times. I think that will be better for them in the long run.

You know, like Rayleigh, you don't want to bat him against lefties and Victor is just Victor.

But defensively, you know, he helps you so that they have those options there. I mean, like,

you don't want to really see Kenz on playing right field of time. Rayleigh and Robles are better.

I think you'll get more than replacement level production from those guys in a platoon versus

you know, what we saw last year. A lot of the Mariners core players are sort of under contract for

at least another year. They do have some guys who are free agents after the conclusion of the

season, Crawford, Refsnider, Andrew Kinsner, Randy. But I'm curious, you know, of their group that's

set to be around longer. Has there been any talk of extensions, particularly with the guys in

the rotation? Do you think that these Gilbert or Kirby might be put under contract for longer than

just another year or two? Yeah, I know they've, when Logan in his first few years, they

broached the idea of an extension. You know, it was more of those the lower ones like we saw them give

to they have in whites and those guys that, you know, you're a year into the big leagues or not

even into the big leagues. We're trying to get you cheap and buy outs and those arbitration

years because they knew he was going to be a super two. I haven't heard, you know, Logan said he's

open to it. But at the same time, he also saw Max free get 210 million and how much is Dylan's,

how much is Dylan's seascape this year? You know, it's like, huh. So I think he, they have a better

chance of extending him and Kirby. But, you know, I think part of it is Logan's relationship with Cal

and the city and everything else. But, you know, they're also getting the point where they have to,

they have to think about that because what is the third year arbitration eligible this year? So

go more after that. I mean, you know, most teams, when you go into that last year or your walk year,

they don't really hang on to you. But Logan is such a big part of the clubhouse and big part of

their pitching, you know, philosophy. And here's the guy that does all these things right. I don't

know. I mean, like, and if you're the Mariners, like, how do you approach that? Like, what is Logan

now? 26 27 28 28. So like, do you give him six years? I mean, like, I don't, I don't ever see

them giving a contract more than six years unless your name is Julio. I mean, Cal only got a six-year

deal. So it's like, is what they do that? I mean, I, that is the one philosophy is like, they want to,

they would rather extend guys they know than go out and spend on guys, you know, on the free

agent market. So I would think that that's being discussed. But, you know, I'm sure the flexor

injury with Logan last year maybe put some breaks on that and has them reevaluating. But yeah,

that's, that's going to be interesting here after this season and what they go in next year and his

final year, what they do. Because honestly, like, if, if you don't get him signed and you just

haven't, do you let him leave or maybe they do the qualifying off? I don't know. It's going to be

really weird. And I don't think they want to get into a point where they have to make those

decisions they'd prefer to maybe, you know, get an extension done and see if they can keep him around.

By many measures, you would call Dan Wilson's first season as as manager wildly successful,

or to take issue with the direction the team went, could maybe take issue with a couple of the

pitching decisions in the final game of their season. We don't have to relitigate the presence

of Bizarro in that moment. But I am curious sort of what conversations Wilson has had publicly

about his managerial philosophy. And if there are things that he took away from his first year

that he is hoping to change or improve upon in year two. Yeah, it's, that was a polite way of putting

that right? Yeah. Somebody still got some issues here. It did feel like at times last year,

not just in the post season, but during the season, like maybe the game sped up on Dan a little bit

and some opportunities. I think maybe his biggest flaw isn't that he doesn't understand, you know,

the dynamics of the situations or numbers of the situation. It's that he trusts his players a

little bit too much that they're always going to come through and deliver. And Bizarro earned a

lot of trust last year without good. I think that's the biggest thing. I don't think it's not that he

doesn't understand the numbers of it all. I think it's the belief that now we don't need to do that.

This guy can do this for us. He can handle it, you know, and and that's not a bad way to be.

And I think that's a big reason for the success in a lot of ways is that Dan loosened the reins

a little bit and allowed those guys to kind of be themselves even more. I think with Scott service,

he he always was kind of the guy still had his fingers on the the pulse and still had a kind of

a big leadership quotient. And you know, when that team was getting older and starting to assume

roles of their own, you know, you needed to pull it back. And I don't think that was easy for Scott.

But Dan came in and just said, no, this is your your clubhouse. You got to run it, you know,

and gave a lot of power to Cal and all these other guys. And I think that was his biggest.

That's what made them successful from his managing standpoint and his responsibilities.

But the game stuff, yeah, it could be a little cleaner. I like I said, I do think it's from trust

more than it's not understanding situations. But I would expect like you might see more

leaning towards the numbers and the situational numbers. I think this is like Scott was very good

about explaining his philosophy and like why he would do stuff. And I remember telling him one time

to like, hey, post game, I'm going to ask you about these relief. Sometimes you're reliever usage

and stuff like that. But I know we can't get like super detailed. So know that I'll probably ask

the next day as well, you know, and he always I think understood like the more he explained what

happened, it was it, you know, and why he did it. It helped fans understand. But Dan doesn't,

it hasn't really offered that up, you know, that much. Just it's like we like him there.

He's been good there. You know, we trust him there. But is that going to change when it bites you

in the ass? I think it does. I think everybody learns eventually. And you know, there are also some

different voices in his dugout now besides, you know, with some changes to the coaching staff,

that could that could lead to different changes too and how they do stuff on their game management

and strategy. All right. Well, take us through what would constitute success for the numbers.

The sequel to a quite successful 2025. Yeah, somebody I wasn't just saying like they go,

when are you going on effective? Well, because you got to what constitutes a success for the mariners. I

think, I think getting to the world series is the success that they, that's what they expect.

I mean, I look at them and I think they're probably the most complete team in American league.

Now that can change with injuries and such, but I look at them. I expect them to win the division.

It's so weird saying this now. It makes probably just like, makes like knocking on wood and

it's so weird. It's so weird world for living in man. But I get you look at them and I don't see

their reason why they wouldn't win the division. They're significantly better from a talent standpoint

than anybody else in their division. And then I look at them and like I look around the American

league, they're, they're really good and they should be there at the end. I think they address

some of their needs, you know, you know, filled holes while making maybe the overall product a

little bit better and a little more consistent with the guys they brought in. And yeah, that's,

for me, that's getting to the world series for the first time in the franchise's career. That

would be what I consider success, success for the mariners. It's so weird saying that.

He said so uncomfortable. I know like this. Yeah. But then again, I'm the guy who said that

Sean Figgins would be a good fit with the mariners once. So what do I know? We all got got by that

on. So you can follow Ryan's coverage at the Seattle Times as always, the written kind of coverage.

But you're also a podcaster now. I noticed you have, you have, well, you, you had a podcast that

was what briefly active last year. Yeah. And then why more? Well, I took a lot of podcasts.

I took a sabbatical last year. Yeah. And so we're, you were coaching an American Legion team for

a little while. Yeah. It was coaching baseball. Yeah. So maybe I shouldn't probably question

managerial decisions based on coaching. Yeah. Yeah. Um, yeah. So we're looking to do it again.

Adam, Jude and I will do it. He's doing some negotiations. So we get somebody else to

help produce it because I'm not, I had to do it. And I'm not very good at it. And I have no

patience for it. So we're, we're looking to kind of farm that out and, and do it that way.

So I'm letting him do that because we also have to negotiate with our bosses on that. And

they like him a lot better than they like me. Okay. Well, it was called extra innings

as Seattle Times baseball hot cast. Maybe it will be again, the description said nobody loves

extra innings more than Mariners beat writer Ryan Davis. Is that, is that true? Are you the biggest

extra innings fan? I, you hate the zombie runner because you just want to stay at the park. Yeah.

Yeah. That's, it's right up there with a colonoscopy and a root canal for me.

Well, you know, I've talked about colonoscopies. Not that bad. They get a bad rap. They really do.

I just, I got to stick up for a colonoscopy. You can't, you got to keep this stuff in the family.

You can't be burdening our guests with this. Hey, it's a PSA public health. Don't, don't be

afraid of colonoscopies. It's, it's a good time or at least not a bad time. But, uh, yeah.

I like extra innings too. I wish we got more of them and that they were not

marked by the zombie runner. How was your theatrical, your theatrical? That's not a word. How was

your sabbatical? You went to Montana and you were coached an American Legion team for a few months.

Yeah. I coached the American Legion team I played for on my hometown and, you know,

the field is a block and a half from my parents house. So, and I actually coached that team when

I was in college playing and then, you know, for the summers, I would come home and help coach.

I call my stepson, but my fiance son was on the team. He was our best player and it was

the best summer of my life, like in terms of being in Montana, experience summer, like,

getting to coach and drive around and like, you know, we're driving all over Montana and Alberta playing

baseball and I learned lots of things like what crash out means and or like literally that

saturday night, saturday night, live, skit where they have the junior high podcasters talking.

That was our team bus. Like, I even said, I was gonna text the mayors and ask for an interpreter

for teenage speak, but no, it was it was so much fun and, you know, the only thing was didn't end

with us winning the state title, but it was I wouldn't change it, you know, I'm not gonna write a

book on it, like Larry Stone wanted me to, but it was I would honestly, I wanted to do it again

for my stepson senior year, my last season, but with them, with Seattle hosting the World Cup,

Tim Booth can't, you know, help me out and really it was it'd be unfair to ask Adam Jude and

Tim Booth and Bob condo to do that again. Like, they were, they really, they really stepped up because

they knew it's something I wanted to do and frankly, they thought it was something I needed to do

because I was getting more angry by the day covering the team. So it really worked out and,

you know, I came back and got to cover them in August through the postseason. So it was pretty fun.

Sounds nice. And then you have some managerial experience under your belt.

All right. Well, thanks as always, Ryan, good to talk to you. All right. Thanks, guys.

Okay, we talked to M's. Now the other M's. Well, one of the other M's. The M and M's,

from the sailors on the surface of the sea to the fish below. The Miami Marlins coming up next

with Christina DiNacola.

All right. Let's talk about the Miami Marlins. We are joined this time by Christina DiNacola who

covers the Marlins for MLB.com. Welcome, Christina. Well, thank you for having me. How are you guys?

We're doing all right. And the Marlins were doing more than all right at the end of last season.

They finished quite strong. They were a winning team over the final four months or so of the season.

You wouldn't really call them a contender. I guess they were a quasi contender there at the end.

They were four games out of the wild card race. And they weren't actually eliminated from

postseason contention mathematically until what the 25th, I think, of September. So you could see that

as, okay, we were close. We can build on that. What was their thinking heading into this off-season

about their proximity to true contention? Because I guess you could say they were maybe playing a little

over their heads last year. I think they were they were outscored by a fair margin. So I think they

were seven games over their Pythag record, five games over their base runs record. And they did

sign a few free agents this off season. But maybe the most notable transactions were trading away

a couple of established starters. So what were they thinking in terms of their timeline?

Yeah, I guess to cover a couple of the things you mentioned. I guess one, the way that they

competed, they made them feel that they are ahead of schedule by having that 17 win improvement.

I will say that, you know, with the run differential, they had probably a handful of games where

Javier Sonoa had to pitch because it was lopsided. And when they won, they're relatively close games

because they're one of those teams, right? You pitch as well, but doesn't necessarily score a lot

around. So that can skew a run differential. So because they feel that they are ahead of schedule,

they, you know, made a few in terms of them, relatively speaking, note where the signings first

with Pete Fairbank, showing up the back end of the bullpen, a proven reliever with postseason

experience. They're trying out Christopher Morale as kind of a reclamation project at first base

for the first time. And they signed Chris Paddock to round out the rotation and give, you know, a lot

of young arms with not many innings under them. A guy who is a veteran and who has been around a

bit, although, you know, at the end of last season had moved over to the bullpen with the tigers.

At this point, you know, especially nationally speaking, I guess people don't see them as a true

contender, but here they think they have a chance, especially if they play the way they did. I think

it was from like June 13th and on through the rest of the season. They were actually one of the

better teams in baseball. But of course, they don't have the big names that the other teams in

the division do. So they'll kind of always kind of be counted out the same way that, you know,

the Tampa Bay Rays or the Cleveland Guardians are, or even Milwaukee Brewers.

Yeah. I guess the Marlins track record of recent contention, not quite up there with those

teams, but they will hope to get there. So take us through the two trades. Obviously, starting

pitching has been a strength for the Marlins. And they still felt like they had enough of a surplus

to subtract Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers. And neither of those guys was quite up to free agency.

Yeah, there's a little team control left there. And so I suppose I see the vision here. And you

can take us through what they got back and what they were trying to accomplish. But then again,

I'm sure there are a lot of Marlins fans who have seen year after year that guys get traded

to other teams and they blossom there or they star there. And the Marlins are just kind of

perennially rebuilding or trying to build a quote unquote sustainable winner or whatever it is.

And you can kind of end up on a treadmill there, I guess, where you're, you're constantly

trading with an eye toward some season X number of years down the road.

Well, yeah, you mentioned the sustainable winner. And that's a term or phrase, I guess you'd say

that president of Facebook operations, Peter Benix uses a lot coming over from the race. So

when I was alluding to before, it's like the Marlins pretty much a vision themselves. Maybe

they can be like the annual version of the race if they can achieve that sustainable success. But

with the Edward Cabrera trade, honestly, if you ask Marlins fans or just maybe even the local market,

you know, he finally broke out, right? This is what people were hoping or expecting when he was

a top 100 prospect years ago, you know, when he was a, you know, big international signing. But

like injuries have kept him from achieving that kind of potential. And this past year, he finally,

you know, got there, you know, 96 mile per hour change up. It doesn't happen often. But

he also had a couple of injuries scares during the season. So, you know, what the Marlins did,

they flipped him when his stock was at its highest. And it got back, you know, the main issue was

Owen Casey, who probably, you know, didn't have much of an opportunity. He was going to have in

Chicago where they're, you know, trying to compete, especially now. So Owen Casey, who right now is

at the World Baseball Classic with Canada could very well win a starting outfield job for the

Marlins because he doesn't really have much left to prove at AAA. So that was the big get there.

With the Ryan Weathers trade, as I had road leading up to it, I was actually in India when he got

traded. But he, you know, the top two prospects in the system for the Marlins are Thomas White and

Robbie Snelling, they're both lefty pictures. I think weather is a very good picture, but maybe the

Marlins consider, you know, more upside for the two younger guys, not really the injury history

yet, that weather's unfortunately has had off and on kind of fluke stuff, honestly. There was one

time he got hit. I think he was in the back of the head by Nick Fortes' throw from home to second

in between innings, you know, right before they start up in inning, when they throw it down a

second. Another time he was going to cover home when Christian Yelich was stealing. And he got,

I think, a weird, like, hairline fracture or something like that on his finger that kept him out.

So he hadn't been able to stay healthy. And, you know, as you're seeing, I guess early on in spring

for the Yankees, his Velo is up again big time. And that's what we saw last spring before he got

hurt at a Marlins camp. And in return for that, they got a couple of guys that are actually a big

like camp Dylan Lewis, Dylan Yasso is here. I believe there's two other names, but it's just

honestly, it's flipping and getting, you know, more depth in the farm system, which, you know,

I'm going to be pipeline rankings came out earlier this week. And the systems deeper than it's

been in a while, you know, sometimes it can be top heavy. There's five top 100 guys. But then

there's also some depth there that, you know, they'd been missing over the years.

You mentioned Casey and, you know, if Marlins fans are looking for a point of optimism,

I think they can find it in that outfield. We can talk about Casey specifically in a second,

but I'm curious, you know, as you think of the season ahead for both Jacob Marcy and Kyle Stowers,

I'm curious, what percentage of each of those guys do you expect in 2026 relative to how they

performed in 2025? Stowers really broke out, you know, we talk about Marlins prospects who leave

and do better elsewhere. He really blossomed after coming over from Baltimore. And Marcy was

scorching hot. I'll be in a very limited sample. So what are your expectations for those guys and

throughout? Do they slot into the mix for Miami? Yeah, exactly. I mean, Marcy, 55 games,

August 1st through the end of the season, he admitted to the end, like the very end, you know,

he's getting a bit tired, not used to playing that deep into a season, but right off the bat,

he should great played discipline, you know, swinging at strikes, probably more extra base hits

and power than they were expecting. Very much like a football. I'll do anything to win mentality

that the Marlins love. But yeah, 55 games is an extremely small sample size. So let's see what it

happens in a full season, right? 162 games, the big difference. And with Kyle Stowers, the

interesting thing is before his oblique injury in August that ended up, he had a step back and then

didn't return. He was probably what top 10 hitter and baseball at the time, like he was up there

in all sorts of categories with, you know, the names that are household around the league. But

his first 117 games split between the Orioles and the Marlins, you know, were forgettable,

probably part of the reason why, you know, the Orioles obviously have at the time all those

different prospects, or guys are coming to the big leagues and they kind of moved on from Stowers

when the Trevor Rogers deal happened. And last spring training, Stowers did not do very well

at all and people wondered if he would even make the team. And then for him to go and have 117

games, there's that number again. So it's the same amount of him being bad and then having 117 games

with him being very, very good, right? All-Star, it was a global finalist, had multiple walk-off winners.

So it's like, which version of Stowers is it? In my opinion, it'll probably somewhere in between.

Maybe not to the level that he was last year and not to how bad he had been. It just says

logically, that's what I see. But you never know. But it's also tricky because right now he's dealing

with a very minor hamstring strain. So he hasn't been in a spring training game for about a week.

And they're kind of, you know, easing him back in because it's just time of the year that you don't

need to, you know, be dumb and rush him. The other guy they got from the Orioles in the Trevor

Rodgers trade, Connor Norby did not have as impressive at debut with the Marlins. What are the hopes

for him in his second year with the team? So that'll be one of the interesting, you know,

competitions that are second full season. I should say, yeah. Yes. Of competition is at third

base between the right-handed hitting Connor Norby and the left-handed hitting Grand Pauli,

who was part of one of the Padres trades that the Marlins had, hard to keep track of which.

There's I think there's been three in the last couple years. But Connor actually, when he got called

up to the Marlins after that Rodgers trade in 24, first of all, they sent him to AAA. I think he

was at the big league level with the Orioles at the time, but they wanted to convert him to third base

where he had not played because, you know, Xavier Edwards was at second, you know, and he's very

much firmly planted there, especially once he and Otto switched from short to second and made a

much better defensive middle and field. But so Norby had a nice debut with them at the end of

24, but once again, small sample size. And then last year was bit by the injury bug. He got hurt

two days before, literally, his last spring training game. I believe sustained an oblique. And so

that kind of set in motion, how his season go, three injured list-stints. When he was around,

he just couldn't find a swing. He's admitted, like, you know, he's very much at his best when he

goes right center. He has that kind of pop. And at Lone Depot Park, that's pretty impressive,

because for a right-handed hitter, you know, it's not easy to go out that way. But they were trying

to have him, I guess, swing, trying to pull it a bit. And that's just not his game. So he was

tinkering all season, didn't have a swing, couldn't figure things out. So he very much, though, needs

to kind of correct things and prove, you know, that he can be an everyday player for this team.

Because as of now, the Grand Poly put up really good numbers defensively at third base last

year when he was there. And after the All-Star break, when he kind of played a bit more consistently,

he started figuring out a bit with the bat. But if both are healthy, like, and nobody kind of

sets themselves apart, maybe it's a platoon. But Poly can also bounce around at first. He saw

some time there. He can play second. Norby would be huge if he can produce for the Marlins, because

they have a lot of lefty batters, whether it's Starrers, Marcy Casey, got Poly, as I mentioned,

X is a switch hitter. Morales are righty. Gus behind the plate is a righty. But Liam Higgs,

the backup catcher is a lefty. One Joe Mac eventually comes up. He's a lefty. So having some

righty pop would be big for the team, especially when they're facing lefty starters.

I wanted to ask about the catching position, both as it's currently constituted and then as it

might evolve going forward, because this podcast has taken a sort of pro framing stance. We also

are pro catchers calling their own games, so are a little confused by the Marlins approach of

wanting to call games from the dugout. But what do you see as the present and future of that

position? And how are they thinking about the possibility of having games called from the dugout

when they have someone like Joe Mac, who, you know, a big part of his appeal as a prospect,

and his value as a prospect is that he's a plus defensive catcher. So tell us about that.

Yes, so the pitch calling they did last year in the minor leagues. So Joe Mac is very familiar with

it. And the person calling the pitches was Rob Marcello, the pitching coach for AAA Jacksonville,

who's now the assistant pitching coach for the Marlins. And we'll be having that duty of calling

pitches. The idea behind it is to kind of give the catchers one less thing to worry about.

You know, they're still game planning. They're still having the pregame meetings with the pitching

coaches, you know, the pitcher, the other catchers. And then, you know, the day after I guess kind of

reviewing what happened, sort of like, why was this pitcher this and that? I remember I was pretty

skeptical when they announced it. We were in Arlington during that last road trip. But then I thought

about it a bit, you know, how much different I guess is it then in football where the coach calls

every play, right? And then the offense or the defense, you know, kind of tries to execute it

and whether they do or not is, you know, up to the execution, right? But for the Marlins,

the catching situations, interesting because Augustine Ramirez, you know, they got him in the

jazz schism junior trade. And from the beginning, they said they view him as a catcher. So, you know,

by saying that you got to see it through. And so he was one of the worst defensive catchers last

year, the, you know, any metric or even standards stats will tell you that. They keep on saying he

put a lot of work in over the off season and the DR. But, you know, it's not like one of those

things where Joe Max can be the opening day catcher. They're going to give Augustine a chance to

kind of prove that he's improved over like the first month or so. And I guess if he doesn't,

that could be, you know, assuming Joe Max is producing at AAA, then Joe Max time. And

in that situation, maybe Gus moves to like the backup role of being behind the dish as long

as he's like adequate enough for a couple times a week. Because then in that sense, though, then Liam

Hicks, who had a pretty respectable rookie season as a real five guy who'd never played above AA,

he could kind of bounce around DH or first or maybe he's the odd man out because both he and,

you know, Joe Mack are lefty bats. But, you know, you're not going to call up Joe Mack to ride the

bench like he would have to play almost like a consistent, right? Like he's, and he's that much

of a difference maker behind the dish with his, you know, arm and whatnot. We saw it, I guess,

early in the week, the days kind of are all over blur. He had a back pick to get out of an inning

at a spring training game. And it's just like, well, you know, like I hadn't seen it as much in

person because I'm so busy with the Marlin stuff that I don't get to watch, you know, as much

minor league games. But, you know, you hear so much about it, right? Two years ago, he was the minor

gold glove winner at Ketcher. And that's very much like a difference maker. The Marlins pictures

aren't very good at holding runners, which is part of why, you know, the caught stealing was so bad

for both Augustine and Lan last year, you know. Though they're making a more concerted effort,

like you see it in the backfields a lot, like 10 minutes ago, maybe 20 minutes ago at this point,

Yuri Perez was cheering with the whole group that during a sim game because he picked off a runner,

like because they've made it such a big deal. He and Sandy are very much not good at holding runners.

So, yeah, the Ketcher situation, you know, long run, it's, you know, it seems like Joe Mac,

but then also what do you do with Gus if he doesn't prove himself to be, I guess, reliable enough

behind the dish? Like they haven't played him at first base or practically, like he's just

solely been a Ketcher and like you have to be pretty darn good, right? Yeah, hitting to be just

solely DH, because then it also, you know, keeps them from moving, you know, regulars around and

giving them a breather in terms of like, okay, this is your day off from the field, but we still want

you in the lineup. So that's definitely going to be one of the main story lines, especially early

in the season. Yeah, with the pitch calling, I get it. I think there's probably an edge to be

gleaned there. I just don't like it personally, kind of on a philosophical level. And so I sort of

resent the Marlins for introducing it to MLB. And now it maybe seems to be spreading the Marlins

former pitching coach is with the Rockies now. And they're thinking of doing it. And then the

Giants have a college coach who's also thinking of doing it. So do you know what the rationale was

in terms of, was it just, well, we think we'll, we'll take a little load off the Ketcher's. It

makes some sense. Or do you think or know that they quantified some edge? Are they able to determine

here's how this helped us last year? We think it will add X wins or whatever is it sort of quantitatively

driven, do you think? And then was there any pushback whatsoever when they implemented this

last year? I imagine there might be on some teams with more veteran guys and players who haven't

just come up in a system like this. But maybe the Marlins were kind of the ideal place to

introduce it with a minimum of resistance. Yeah, you kind of alluded to it. So, you know,

with such a young and inexperienced roster, this is honestly the perfect place, right, to

experiment with it. Alone Leishman, who is now the Rocky's pitching coach, was the assistant

pitching coach for the Marlins last year and was the one calling it during that last week.

And I remember that was one of the questions I asked. And, you know, there weren't many veteran

pitchers, but, you know, the big one is Sandi Al Contra, right? How will he respond to it? And,

but he's very much a pitcher that doesn't want to think, none of it doesn't want to think too much

about it. But he had also developed a really good rapport with alone. They were catching partners

during the season, so that helped. And talking to John King, Pete Fairbanks, and Chris Patikol,

who signed as free agents this off season, that was one of the things I was curious about, right?

Like, is that going to make certain pitchers not want to come to the Marlins? Obviously, it depends

also on how much, you know, the, you know, salary, annual salary, right? There's certain tiers

of free agents. At least these three were open to it. Obviously, Fairbanks with the raises used

to experimentation and whatnot that they do over there. Patik and King are guys that are

trying to write their careers a bit and see this as a way that maybe it's, that could happen.

The Marlins very much right are analytical now. They're looking into numbers this and that.

But I remember having a conversation that day with Bendix about the idea of the pitch calling,

and it's almost like the chicken the egg, right? Like, maybe it's the right pitch that was called,

but it's not the execution. So, I guess you take with a grain of salt, maybe some of the numbers.

It was more honestly, I think, because it's a young roster, particular to one of the things,

I don't know if we can perfectly quantify it, is game calling by a catcher, right?

And what kind of impact that actually has, you know, whether it's like a Salvador Perez or J.T.

Rheumato, and with having such young catchers, as we mentioned, like Gus and Liam Hicks were both

rookies last year, Joe Maxxer Prospect, you know, the pitch calling comes with experience.

So, it also goes into the idea that those pre-game and those post-game or the day after sessions they

have, they're still learning, right? Like, you're learning swings and maybe why this was pitch

and this is called. So, it's not like they're going to completely, like, lose that skill or

learning that skill. So, it'll definitely be one of those things where you're going to have to

have a large enough sample size and probably over a couple of years to see if it actually has an

impact. But also, is it just because those pitchers were good or not good? Or, you know, the catchers

were framing or, you know, now we got to, I guess, the challenges too. So, there's so many variables.

I think it was mainly though because of the young roster and trying to maybe see this as an edge

that they can get over other teams. Yeah, I could imagine pitchers not caring that much because

their pitches are going to be called for them by someone, usually. So, maybe they don't care who

that someone is. Well, and that's what they said. Yeah, because, like, whether it's the catcher,

the pitching coach, assistant pitching coach, like, somebody who was calling it, unless it's like,

I guess, sure, I don't know, which veteran guys around the league call their own pitches every

so often. Like, it's not like, there is someone else usually calling it. It's just, they're putting

the responsibility on the coach. And I think, I don't remember if it was paddock or fairbank

choking last week to us. It's like, oh, yeah, we told Rob Marchello, who's the assistant

pitching coach who's calling pitches, like, it's, you get to do MLB the show like in person.

You're calling the pitches. But once again, it goes back to the execution too, right? At the

end of the day, if the pitcher can actually execute the pitch. Right. Yeah. So I could imagine

catchers barking at it more or not, not actually barking. Catchers barking is a thing. But, but

and they can act and they can still like shake off a pitch. Like, it's not like, this is what

you have to do. Like, they do have the freedom to do that. And there's still, like I said,

discussions, whether it works or doesn't, they're going to have those talks. It's not like,

it's completely like, no, you can't do this. Like, they can. And if you have rookie catchers who

are just trying to get established and also they've come up in a system where this is the way

it's been done, then it does seem like the ideal place to introduce it. So I guess credit to

the Marlins for sort of, if they really think there's an edge to be gained there, then they

will derive the first mover advantage from just having this perfect place to do it. I just,

for reasons that I've ranted about previously and won't rehash here. I hope that it doesn't

spread and that this isn't patient zero. But we'll see. I guess the Marlins hope that it's a success

and that other teams do want to copy it. We talked a good bit about Joe Mack, but I'm curious,

you know, this is a young team and this is a young team that I think is still trying to see what

it has. So if, if there is under performance or injury at the big league level, are there

other guys sort of floating around the high minors on the position player side who you think might

get some big league run this year? Yeah, that's what interesting trying to think of how the roster

might play out, you know, to start with like opening day, it seems like it's the usual, not

usual suspects, but kind of 13 positions that are kind of locked in. But then who would be next?

One interesting development over this week is that Dax Fulton, who we kind of forget a bit about

because you got Thomas White and Robbie Snowling, as I mentioned before, Dax last year came back

from a second Tommy John surgery is he's on the 40-man roster. They protected him. He's always been

a starter, but they hinted at the idea that maybe like in order to make the big leagues or to

like help the team, he could at some point maybe be like a reliever of like a couple of innings.

And that's something interesting that was floated around earlier this week.

Relievers, there's Josh White, William Kempner, who were protected during the real five in December.

They are here at Big League Camp, obviously, and they've looked pretty good.

The Marlins have actually an interesting relief core, like bullpen options.

Those are guys. In terms of position players, Maximo Acosta doesn't really have anywhere to play

right now because Otto Lopez is going to be the everyday shorts off and Xavier Edwards is the

everyday second baseman, and then as we mentioned before, Norby and Polly at third. But Maximo,

he looks different. He's definitely put on some muscle and weight. He had a bit of a stint with

the team last year, and it was kind of almost all or nothing. He caught a few home runs or extra

bass hits, provided solid defense. So he's one of those, if one of those guys got hurt, he'd be first

up because Snow has the love-winning utility player who kind of be everywhere, but Maximo Acosta would

probably be the first man-up type of thing. And then a bunch of starting options, if pictures were to

go down, they acquired Bradley Blaylock, I believe. They claimed off-wayers from the Rockies. They're

kind of trying to help them out because the poor guy, right? Of course, we see what it does to pictures.

So he's kind of one of those reclamation projects. You've got Ryan Gusto, who was part of the

Hazoo Sanchez trade with the Astros, who could be maybe like a swingman type. Got Adam Mazer,

who put on some weight this off-season and has looked pretty sharp. His name has been brought up

quite a few times by Clayton McCullough, the manager, the non-Roster guy, as I mentioned before,

white-snelling. They're just, they have, it's interesting. They traded away, right? We mentioned

Cabrera and Weathers, but they have different options. A lot of guys that are with AAA experience

that, that honestly, that rotation at AAA is going to be pretty impressive because assuming injuries

don't happen leading up to opening day, you're looking at probably Cindy Alcantre, Eurie Perez,

Max Mayer, Braxton Garrett, Chris Paddock, as the five for the Major League team, and then you

got a bunch of guys who will probably have to start at AAA, the one that will have to keep an eye on

his chance and junk. He rolled his ankle about a week and a half, two weeks ago. He's working his

way back. He'll make his great food debut on Saturday. It's very much a swingman type, but they're

also still building him up as a starter. That's another guy there, and have to make a decision on

so those are the names to kind of be on the lookout for. But like I said, just spring, we've seen what's

happened to the Braves and other teams. Just like injuries happen, stuff that you, that of your

control happens, and then suddenly you have this random dude that's on the team. So speaking of

Sandy, the upset last season was that he did not get traded and still has not been traded.

That'll happen, I guess, when you have a seven plus ERA at the Alstar break, but thereafter,

he did pitch more or less like the old Sandy down the stretch. His less dozen starts. He had a

3.13 ERA, 3.75 FIP. So if he starts the season the way he ended last season, then is it likely,

is it certain that he will be the next to go? Because this is the last year of his contract,

but there's a team option for 20, 27 for about 21 million.

I think it depends on where the team is, right? In the standings, because in their dream world,

they'll still be in it and they'll try to add and keep Sandy. But yeah, I mean, he would be logically

one of those guys at the deadline if they're not within striking distance that they could trade.

He added a sweeper that he's trying out. He's actually pitching today and between the World

Baseball Classic stuff happening. But he, a big thing with him, obviously coming back from Tommy

John surgery and we saw with a few guys, it's like, you know, they don't get their location

back right off the bat. It takes some time. And then not just that, but they were trinkering with

his arsenal and adding pitches here and there, rather than him just being like the sink or change

up guy. And I think, in my opinion, at least to the detriment of Sandy. So that could be a thing to

monitor over the season if he, you know, kind of still relies on the sink or change up and then

sporadically, whatever other pitches he has. Because they very much believe philosophically on the

team now of the organization, the 2k and like getting strikeouts and valuing that when Sandy very

much is like a ground ball pitcher, very efficient. Like he's going to give you however many

innings because it's a low pitch count. So which version of Sandy will we get as well, not just

in terms of the pitches, but the type of outs he's getting. That's the big thing for me is,

is he going to be the guy that gives you 6 or 7 innings every time hours, he's getting these high

pitch counts. He's only in the fifth or slightly into the sixth inning. Gary Perez's ERA wasn't

particularly sterling last season. His fit was notably better, but I think it was encouraging

to everyone to see his velocity intact after surgery. I'm curious sort of how, how he takes the

step forward this year because he, he looked great. Like the body looked good last year. It looked

like he had put on good weight that might help him sustain a full season load. But you know,

he struck out fewer guys. He still walked a bunch of dudes. So how do they help

Yuri sort of take that step forward and become the guy who we got a tantalizing glimpse at in 2023?

Well, it's funny you mentioned the that he put on some weight. There was, I think before he had

the Tommy John, I remember he was saying like, I added on some weight and I asked how much and he

said 5 pounds and we looked at him like, come on. But this time he actually put on, yeah, I put

on like if we was like 10 to 15 or something. But, but so him also, right, coming back from Tommy

John surgery, you don't necessarily have the commander location like that you're used to. But he

also though, like he went through a stretch where, you know, pretty good and then he have like

a couple of rough patches and pretty sure he ended well in September. He was adding pitches to

like the arsenals were changing. So much like Sandy, like mentor and mentee, very much like you

don't see Sandy without Yuri and vice versa. They were playing with the pitches that he was using.

So yeah, we hear so much. He has the nickname baby goat down here. But now it's time to start

pitching like one, right? He's looked sharp this spring. He actually had a sim game just now. They

wanted him in that sim game, particularly practice with his pick offs as I mentioned earlier.

And being able to handle the running game. But yeah, I mean, if he can get to, you know, his potential,

I mean, Sandy and Yuri at a top of her rotation. It's not too shabby. But yeah, now's the time to,

you know, more than a year removed from rehabbing we'll say because he didn't come back

until it was a June or July. But yeah. And he came back ahead of time too. So I think the further

way you get from Tommy John surgery, hopefully more like the way, you know, the pitcher you are,

I think Chris Paddock was even telling me that a couple of days ago, just the same thing happened

for him or it's like it was after that, you know, year or whatever. And so even Braxton Garrett coming

back from Tommy John surgery, the same too. Although he like literally the same as Sandy, his spring

training is kind of his rehab. That's the other thing with Sandy, right? He didn't actually go on

rehab assignments and games and proper like build up that way. It was more like, all right,

you're doing that during spring training. And now we're right off the bat opening day against

Paul Skins. Yeah. Yeah. So you talked about this. And by the way, baby goat, that's capital G-O-A-T

for everyone who was like what we're pitching like a baby goat into health. No, like greatest fall

time. That's what we're going for here. Both, both honestly both. Yeah. You talked about white and

smelling the two top prospect pictures who are on the verge of being pickleakers. But the,

I guess the back of the rotation and mid rotation, it consists of guys who were once top pitching

prospects themselves, but are coming off a season when they combined for I think point three

baseball reference were talking about Max Meyer and Chris Paddock and Braxton Garrett, who you

mentioned who didn't pitch last year. Of course, coming back from Tommy John. So what are they going

to get out of those three and how does that dictate the time frame in which we might see white

and smelling? Well, exactly right. So Max Meyer got off to a really good start last year. And then

the hip, I guess started bothering him. He had what a 14 strikeout performance. He was like, oh,

maybe this is the guy he is rather than everyone trying to already make him into a, you know,

back in high leverage reliever. So yeah, what version of Max you're going to get because he hasn't,

been able to stay healthy since he's reached a big leagues, whether it was Tommy John surgery,

the hip, I think there might have been a shoulder or something in between, but three straight seasons,

I believe, or he's prematurely ended. Braxton Garrett, yeah, what are we going to get and see

from him? He had started to figure it out right in 2023. He broke out. Those, when the Miles go

place the Phillies in the playoffs and it's Luzardo and Braxton Garrett, games one and two,

because Yuri and Sandy were hurt. He threw a matrix, I believe in that 2024 season and then

ended up, he had shoulder trouble off and on and then eventually that December had Tommy John.

And this is his return paddock as we mentioned. You know, he was with the twins and he went right to

the bullpen with tigers, had struggled. So that's where I guess the names I mentioned earlier that

the AAA guys, guys that'll start there are going to play a huge factor because they know they're

going to need more than five pitchers. You know, no team is able to just go through a season with five,

although I think what Seattle Mariners flirted with that a couple of years ago. Yeah, Cardinals came

close last year for better or worse. Right, exactly. But so white is definitely not at the same stage

of his career as snowing. Snowing, you know, is the reigning organization pitcher of the year,

spent almost his whole season at AAA, did a very good job. He has been pitching in these great

freely games. He was in the opener. Today is his third appearance. They're very much getting a better

look at him. So he would be one of those. He's not right. He's not in the 40-man roster. So there

would have to be a corresponding move. But he's he's definitely closer than white who is right now

dealing with an oblique strain. So his screen training is done. He was reassigned to minor league camp.

And also, I think those names I mentioned before, Blaelock, Meiser, Gusto. If you're crying those

guys, they're not the sexy names like white and styling, but they would be more likely, especially

if it's not a long injury, first or in pitcher or whatnot, that would be up first. But for it's

snowing in particular, it's not if it's more just when he'll get his call. And both of those guys

project to make their debut at some point this season. I mentioned some of the names in the bullpen,

but maybe we can talk more about this group. So obviously they brought in Pete Fairbanks.

I imagine he'll be serving as the closer John King, as you mentioned, but talk to us about

sort of this mix. How are they lining guys up ahead of Fairbanks? And what are your expectations

of Jansson Junk? I know that he's not maybe the most interesting name on this list, but I

remain fascinated by him because I'm kind of confused by his season and how he can have such a

split between his his ERA and his fit. But talk to us about the group as a whole. Pete Fairbanks

will be the Marlins very much like they did last year. They who finishes the game, right?

Not necessarily the save. So if the big situation comes in that a thinning, that's one Fairbanks

is probably going to be there. They have Kalan Foshay and Anthony Bender who have saved games

as set up men options. You've got a multi-any guy like Lake Barker, Tyler Phillips that they're trying

to kind of build them out to maybe three or four innings if need be. He saved a few games after he

would slap his face that people thought that name was familiar. That's who that is. John King,

they brought in a lefty arm. Kate Gibson was very solid as a rookie last year, another lefty

arm. Andrew Narty is trying to make his way back. Poor guy just back trouble. All of last season

couldn't make it into to be healthy enough. Like he even had like epidural shots and everything.

It didn't work. Knock on wood for him. He is feeling good on that front. He did have a weird

blood blister from like a fluke accident in the training room that sent him back a bit. But he

he's been able to kind of regularly get on the backfields and do whether it's live batting

practice or some games. So that's encouraging. But he won't start the season with the Big League

Club. He won't need like more time to like rehab. But those are some of the big names. I had

mentioned some of those rule five guys that they protected. But the Martins feel pretty confident.

And then another wild card is Michael Peterson who has had some really nasty stuff and like they're

giving a better look this spring. He was going to go compete with Great Britain in the World

Baseball Classic. Instead, stuck around with camp who can be utilizes a variety option

in the bullpen multi inning kind of like Tyler Phillips, but maybe not built up as much.

Esther Janssen junk. Yeah, his splits were kind of drastic. He had a few pretty good starts actually.

But like he's definitely better suited for like a really for all multi inning like swingman type.

But he is behind a few of those guys that I mentioned because you had rolled his ankle

on a fluke thing as well. It's like all these baseball players in their injuries, right?

The bullpen it's going to be very important for the Marlins because they play so many close games.

And that kind of decide, you know, whether they are a contender or not.

Yeah, it was interesting. We talked about the Marlins playing a bit above their run differential

last year. And the bullpen was probably part of that because by fan graphs were it was the 26th

the best bullpen and baseball down between the Braves and the Angels losing teams. But by

win probability, it was the fifth best bullpen and baseball between the Blue Jays and the Mariners.

So when they needed to get good innings, it seemed like they did. Not sure you can count on that

repeating itself, but it did help last year. One question about the payroll roster resource

does have it dead last just a little bit above 70 million. And it was reported about a year ago.

I believe by the Miami Herald that the Marlins weren't worried about another grievance being filed

against them because their defense would be that they had made a lot of investments in infrastructure

in the organization that weren't really reflected in player payroll. I guess maybe that worked because

they didn't get a grievance filed against them last year as far as I know. But that number is still

down there. So I guess two parter one, what can you tell us about those investments that they say

they have made in other areas. And then two should Marlins fans think or hope that if this

core does come together, if this rebuild works, that at some point they will be willing to spend.

I can't speak to I guess what other outlets are reporting, but I will say that the Marlins are

investing a lot in technology. For example, they have several traject machines that they introduced

last year. They had these like strobe glasses that were supposed to possibly help fielders, you know,

practice for grounders and drills. They recently just opened a newly renovated Marlins Jupiter

Academy. They're calling it the previous facilities that the Cardinals did as well,

looked honestly like high school baseball clubhouses and whatnot. So they have invested a lot

there. There's the Dominican Republic Academy that opened, I believe in 2021. That's impressive.

And then of course, keep in mind that there are so many pre-arbitration guys on this roster.

So, you know, by default, they are going to make a lower payroll than let's say other teams.

Something that will be interesting to see is because they are trying to develop talent,

whether it's from drafting or signing, you know, international free agency or acquiring via trade,

that if some of these pieces become part of a core, can they extend them? Because over the

offseason, there had been reports about Kyle Stowers, Jacob Marcy, Eurety Perez. So, you know,

even for that would be the avenue for the Marlins to spend money. And it's also, you know,

relatively speaking, they signed four fray agents to major league deals, which doesn't really happen

often for the organization. There was Pete Fairbanks, John King, Chris Patek, and Christopher Morrell.

I mean, I mean, probably goes without saying the Marlins probably won't likely be in that higher

tier of spending, whether it's like the $300 million contract that we've seen over the years with,

you know, Bryce Harper type. You know, obviously, John Carlos Stanton had that deal

in the mid-2010s under the previous ownership, but the Marlins very much see themselves as an

organization that wants to develop its own talent. And then, you know, maybe unlike previous decades,

retain them longer than before. All right. So, our closing question is a shorter term one,

just about what would constitute success for the Marlins this year? What should their

organizational goals be? How should fans assess whether this season went well?

So, while last year the Marlins kind of came out of nowhere and became almost like a pseudo

contender this spring, they very much believe they can contend. You know, they're different tiers

of contending and, you know, a lot will remain to be seen, how pitching holds up if injuries

are avoided. But the Marlins believe if, you know, they get to the deadline, they can make

things interesting and maybe they're buying a set of selling. The Marlins very much believe in

the idea of development. It doesn't end at the big league level, it continues. And so, you know,

the key is whether they can keep trending upwards and not, you know, go from a 17-win improvement

to then suddenly losing more games this year, which we've seen in previous years with, let's say,

the Kansas City Royals or other teams that had made a jump. And that's going to be tricky,

because the league will adjust to some of these players. Now, can they make the adjustment back?

You know, there's more info and data on them, but they very much don't put necessarily

specific goals like this many wins or this or that, but they keep it simple with the whole

continue developing at this level and putting them in the best positions to succeed.

Now, if they can do that, things could get interesting this year. And you never know,

you know, the Phillies are getting older. The Braves have had quite a few injuries,

approve our situation. And, you know, the Mets are going to Mets sometimes, even though I think they

did get better this off season. Yeah, I saw a post on Blue Sky by Lauren from batting around.

And she said, the Phillies have officially lost the NL East's big silly guys fun vibes status.

The Braves ontologically evil, debatable, but the Mets have their own weird thing.

And the Nats Triple A roster are ineligible. So congratulations to the Marwan's.

That can't be right. But yeah, according to some, at least the Marwan's are the vibes guys

of the NL East now. So that's something. And we will find out how the rest of the season goes

in part by following Christina Nicola's coverage at MLB.com. Thank you very much, Christina.

Honestly, this I think also helps me just as much as hopefully the listeners because it kind of

makes me, you know, envision what the opening day roster could look like or the different storylines

or, you know, there's so much going on during spring training. It feels like, you know,

so many days in a row, so many long hours that you can get disorganized and jumbled.

So this is a good way of me to think, okay, these are the pictures. These are the position players.

These are the battles and competitions when you look at these are the prospects to watch.

So I think I get as much of out of it as hopefully you guys are.

Yeah, I'm glad with we think of of these previews as the guest providing a service to the listeners

and to us. But if it's, if it's reciprocal and it helps you to even better. So thank you.

Honestly, it's a good excuse to get out of the sun for a bit because South Florida already

feels like we're at summer. There's a lot of sun out there. Heat humidity. We went straight

from like 40 degrees a week or so ago to now we're back up to the mid 80s. So I also thank you for

that because you know, I'm running out of sunscreen. I'm always in favor of staying out of the sun.

All right, that will do it for today and for this week. Thanks as always for listening. In theory,

we should be bringing you the long anticipated Phillies preview pad next time. You know how in my

crusade against coaching and coaching on players decision making while on the field, which we just

brought up with Christina on the Marlins preview. I've said that the challenge system seems to be the

exception because although there will be plenty of analysis by teams about when it makes sense to

challenge, the players will have to make the decision in the moment. Well, I may have spoken too

soon. Last month, Tom Tango predicted that we would start to see teams signaling from the bench

when it's appropriate to challenge and it looks like that has begun to happen. Our brewers preview

guest Kurt Hogue tweeted a photo on Thursday with the caption Big Spring happenings today. The brewers

are instituting phase one of Operation ABS Challenge system rules with coaches Evan Martin and

Daniel Demandezert holding up big cards to signal when or when not to challenge based on game

situation. Yeah, if you thought that we were going to be exempt from more kinds of cards,

well, think again. And here's an excerpt from Kurt's story for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

It was 9.14 a.m. when a herd of nerds emerged from Pat Murphy's office,

herd of nerds emerged. I like it. Fit in polos and blazoned with blue and gold logos,

the group behind many of the Milwaukee brewers, deft moves had spent the better part of the past

hour devising a team wide plan for the automated ball strike challenge system,

scratching the corners of their brains to talk through any possible challenge scenario.

Prior to the meeting of minds on the sofa and a love seat inside Murphy's office,

ABS challenges were entirely in the hands of the players. No guidelines, no rules,

just vibes and helmet taps. That changed right before the start of their game,

March 5th against the Colorado Rockies in Scottsdale, roughly three hours following the

conclusion of the morning rendezvous. The system was simple, yet complex. Two brewers,

coaches Evan Martin, unoffence and Daniel Demandezert on defense would hold a large green

index card up from the dugout railing when it was a green light challenge spot. When batting,

a sign was also relayed from Martin to third base coach Matt Ericsson to pass along to the

hitter. And Murphy said, at the game today, it's going to be a yes or no. MLB rules don't allow

input from the dugout on challenges after a pitch has been thrown. But the brewers are merely

telling players before the pitch whether it's an acceptable helmet tapping situation or not.

The first green light came in the top of the first with Blake Perkins at the play to run

around second, facing a three to count against Michael Lorenzen. Martin attached the Velcro card

to an adhesive on the front of the dugout railing and gave the tap your helmet signal to both the

hitting coach and Ericsson who relayed two Perkins. The debut of the card system was ABS 101

as spring goes on and even into the regular season, the brewers will continue to add and refine

until it reaches the point that players have the course down. That Murphy says is an important

distinction for now. The key players are the ones in the front office, but ultimately it will be

in the hands of the actual players. It still comes down to the players, which is what I love about

the rule. He said, it comes down to the players dictating. So we'll see. Is this just a spring

training measure until the players figure out when they're allowed to challenge or not? Or will this

be implemented permanently? And we will see this across dugouts throughout the regular season.

I guess it's not so different from relaying signs from the dugout to the third base coach and

then onto the hitter. The difference is cards instead of signals, but I do hope that this proves

to be a teaching tool instead of a full season fixture. Now I have my doubts. The other day we were

talking about whether there would be bad blood about challenges, whether there would be unwritten

rules, flare ups. And Meg said she thought that it would be an era of relative good feeling because

players will have some recourse, they can challenge. They don't have to restrict themselves to

fuming and protesting and getting thrown out. And in fact, there was some data in an ESPN

piece from late last year in which MLB said 61.5% of ejections among players, managers and coaches

in 2024 were related to balls and strikes as were 60.3% through that point in the 2025 season.

That includes ejections for derogatory comments, throwing equipment while protesting calls and

inappropriate conduct. So who knows maybe even Aaron Boone will be thrown out a little less often

or maybe managers will adjust and players to end that anger will find some other outlet.

And the ejection rate will decline less than one might think. But we were talking about whether

a player might get upset at a teammate who erased their stolen base by challenging. And we were

saying, well, there aren't many situations where that could happen. There is at least one, though.

I think if there's a 3-1 count where the runner-on first and the runner-steel second and the pitch

is called a strike, but the better challenges the strike gets it converted to a ball, which would

be ball four, which would be a walk while the runner still advances, but I think that would erase

the stolen base. So yeah, it could happen. Hopefully the runner would understand. But we'll see what

the etiquette would be in that situation. Also meant to mention when we were talking about the

naming rights, the corporate sponsorships for ball parks and how some parks that do have corporate

sponsors sort of sound like they don't, great American ballpark, etc. I meant to mention and I

saw one of our listeners mention. Cityfield, kind of in that category, if you don't see it spelled,

and you don't think the Metz in their lol Metzness misspelled the name of their ballpark,

that eye at the end of City punctures the illusion. But if you just heard someone refer to Cityfield,

it could kind of pass for a non-sponsored park. We sure hope you'll sponsor this podcast.

We'll probably never be able to afford even a spring training park called Effectively Wild Field,

but we would still welcome your patronage at patreon.com slash effectively wild. If you go there,

you can sign up and pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going,

help us stay ad free, and get yourself access to some perks. As of the following five listeners,

Luke, Jonathan Passant, Michelle Lennhart, Farhan Arif, and Kate, thanks to all of you. Patreon

perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes,

playoff live streams, prioritized email answers, shout outs at the end of episodes,

potential podcast appearances, discounts on merch, and ad free fangrass memberships and so much more.

Check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash effectively wild. If you are patreon supporter,

you can message us on the patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email.

Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastfandgrass.com. You can rate

review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music, and other

podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash effectively wild.

You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at our slash effectively wild. You can check the podcast

post at fangraphs or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats

we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeehan for his editing and production assistance. We hope you

have a wonderful end of your weekend weekend and we will be back to talk to you next week.

Let's play Mom. It's Effectively Wild.