ELITE 8 PREVIEW! Arizona SHOULD OVERPOWER Purdue to MAKE 2026 FINAL 4, Double Digit WIN?

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Arizona should advance to their first final four since 2001 due to their elite defense.

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Today on the show, I'll analyze the key matchups and strengths for each side of the Arizona

against Purdue.

You lead eight matchup, one versus two, outline the keys to the game with the corresponding

stats.

That matter.

And of course, give my prediction.

Let's dive right in.

Arizona to me has the advantage on the interior, even though Purdue is known for their interior

presence.

They've got former All-American, Trey Kaufman, and they have All-American Point Guard

Spray and Smith.

They have a recipe to score.

They will be able to manufacture points because Matt Painter is a grade X as a nose coach,

and they have the personnel to score.

But I think Arizona can one, limit the ability to score of the number one offense in the

college basketball, and two, take advantage of a so, so defense.

Arkansas Purdue are not too dissimilar in terms of their defensive metrics, and we saw

what happened.

Arizona lived in the paint and dominated.

The pace will be different.

Arizona got in a track meet and thrived against Arkansas.

Against Purdue, it will be slower.

But the same thing stands.

I'll get to a couple of stats about paint dominance in a moment, but I think the real

key is Arizona has a better mix of defensive dominance and offensive dominance, whether

the number one team in the Kenpaw rankings, number four on offense, number three on defense.

And I think they're even better than that on defense.

Now Arizona, to me, has the advantage because Purdue runs all their stuff through Trey Kaufman

and Ren post ups and catches on short rolls and shots like that.

Arizona's one got the athletes to minimize his impact, but two can have the physicality

to not let him overwhelm them, whereas against Texas, Purdue overwhelm Texas.

And I think the physicality and just looking at the teams and seeing them being in person,

watching both teams yesterday, Arizona's bigger, stronger, faster than Purdue, and I think

the physicality, the sheer size of Arizona will really be difficult for Purdue.

I think Arizona will score on the inside at will in this game and Purdue.

The question is, can they score on Arizona inside because if not, I think you got to say

good night.

I think Arizona has more ways to score than Purdue, even though Purdue is the number one

team in the nation offensively.

But if you look at what Purdue's record is, it's 38.

There are two seed, they won the big 10 tournament, but they've largely struggled against the

big teams.

They've lost badly to Michigan at home.

They lost to Illinois at home.

They lost to Iowa State at home.

And they've gotten better, but Arizona can take away the rim and take away the lawyer.

And Fletcher lawyer is a big expector.

We'll get to him in a little bit, but I think taking away the rim and taking away Fletcher

lawyer is something that most teams have to say, I think Arizona can do both.

And that really sets up Arizona nicely.

Now here are some statistics that back up the next claim I've got.

The next claim is, is this.

If I'm Arizona, I want Braden Smith, yes, Braden Smith, the first team of all American

a season ago, the preseason player of the year, this year, second team of all American.

I want Braden Smith to be a score against my length.

The length of Arizona, rather than a guy who accumulates assists.

I'd rather Braden Smith score 20 that Braden Smith have eight or more assists.

This is the all-time assist leader in college basketball.

But I'm not scared of him as a score.

Arizona holds pick and roll ball handlers to 35% shooting.

And the roll man, which would be Trey Coffman ran largely to 44% shooting.

So that's really good because I'll give you the flipped numbers in a moment.

TKR, Trey Coffman ran, has a great push shot, which means he's going to catch the short

or own shoot it.

Arizona's got the length to make that a more difficult shot, but also at the girth to make

him not get the ball in the block and have an advantage.

Here's where Pordeaux excels and they set up their number one offense.

They're 99th percent down spot up shooting, which is 42.4%, and those are not all threes

but they're largely threes.

They're pick and roll ball handler, which is Braden Smith shoots when they shoot, when

he is forced to shoot, I should say, they're actually considered below average because

they're shooting just 39% because he shoots more mid ranges due to his diminutive stature

than layups.

And so you want him to shoot rather than to pass the roll.

They're 99th percent down post up offense shooting nearly 61%.

They have a lot of duck-ins to cluff and Trey Coffman ran, they ran them to perfection

late in the game against Texas, and that's one of the many reasons they won, along with

fouling up the big man for Texas, and there are many big for Arizona.

They're also 99th percent tile, excuse me, 92nd percent tile in pick and roll, the roll

man shooting, which is largely Trey Coffman ran, they shoot 64%.

So Arizona holds teams to 44% as the roll man, and 35% as the roll pick and roll ball handlers

produce just 39% in pick and roll ball handlers, but 64% in pick and roll roll men.

That's a enormous gap, that's a chasm right there, you're not going to see a gap more

profound than that.

And Arizona, if they limit that number to 50% or 55% in a roll man, that's a huge difference

because I also don't think they're going to get as many looks on that because they typically

punish switches.

So then the attention shifts to this, it's lawyer.

The three seniors, lawyer, Smith and Trey Coffman ran are great, and everyone always says,

oh, Trey Coffman ran is really good, Smith's really good, lawyers, the guy who accelerates

them makes them better.

That's right.

He's the metronome for Purdue, and he shoots well, they're really hard to beat.

But Arizona has the capacity to make Smith uncomfortable with the size, make Trey Coffman

ran see different bodies, and won't be overmatched in the physical department, in fact, they're

bigger.

So it becomes a game, can Fletcher lawyer get loose and shoot?

And I think Purdue's best weapon is Matt Paner's X's nose, and Tommy Lloyd is a great pre-game

scout guy.

But can Fletcher lawyer get loose, is Purdue's only hope, knocking down threes, because Arizona

is the lead defensively near the rim, and I think offensively Arizona is going to find

a way to the wreck.

Purdue is 36 non-defense, and they're not very good at protecting the rim whatsoever.

Purdue is just 29th percentile at defending the rim, allowing 59 percent fuel-goal percentage

at the rim.

That's really, really good.

It's actually better than what Arizona shoots from two, and they shoot like we've established

a ton of shots from near the rim.

Of course, the rim's a little different than five feet, but the point being is Arizona's

elite is shooting twos, and then they're playing a team that is very poor at defending the

rim, which is where Arizona likes to shoot their twos.

They're also considered speaking of Purdue poor at defending the pick and roll, and especially

the pick and roll ball handlers, allowing 47 percent shooting percentage where Bradley

and Burys can thrive.

For reference, Braden Smith, who was in second team all-american with the free season player

of the year in college basketball, shoots 39 percent on that same percentage, so Purdue

allows 8 percent better for what are considered lesser players, and Arizona doesn't have lesser

players.

They've got dudes.

They've got the big 12 pair of the year, and the top 10 pick is the guards coming off

those pick and rolls.

Now based on these numbers, I expect Arizona to limit Purdue's effectiveness from two,

and still thrive near the basket themselves, which means Arizona must take away Fletcher

lawyers' threes to make hard twos beat them, and I don't think Purdue has the capacity

to beat Arizona without making a lot of threes.

So that's vital.

Speaking of vitality, I'll give the keys to the game next, statistical expectations and

more coming up right ahead after a word from Mazda.

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So welcome back to lockedownwildcast, this is a breakdown of the elite eight match between

Arizona and Purdue.

Here are my keys for an Arizona win.

I believe Arizona should win, I believe they will win, but here's a first and foremost

key.

Keep pre-vos on the court and avoid foul trouble.

Drake Kaufman ran, fouled out Matas Volkotitis, and that is why they won the game.

Play it in simple, that is exactly why they won the game because Texas is lone shock lockers

out again.

Arizona obviously has more depth in the front court, I think it'll be harder for him to

do so, but that's an important key.

Speaking of the glass and keeping big guys near it, you got to win the glass, and this

against a big team that has similar rebounding numbers, but Texas was small and many points

of that game.

Volkotitis only played 22 minutes, and Texas has identical offensive rebounding numbers,

15.

I believe Arizona can reach that number.

The next key, it's Fletcher lawyer.

Make Fletcher lawyer put the ball in the deck and don't get open catch and shoot threes.

Texas got a greedy and put a four-man lawyer, he ran around and scored easy shots early

in the game, set up Purdue well.

They limited for the most part rest of the game, but you don't want to let a lawyer get

loose and make threes.

And then my next key is the corresponding one, make Braden Smith a score.

Make Braden Smith shoot more than 12 shot attempts.

When he's shot more than 12 shot attempts, this team has struggled.

When Smith shoots a lot, it make or miss Purdue has lost.

When he shoots under a certain number, they win just about every game because his assist

go high.

So my number for you is how makes Smith shoot over 12 attempts and makes Smith and ideally

higher than that and makes Smith have fewer than seven assists.

And basically, you want fewer points accounted for by Braden Smith and I'll say about 30.

You want fewer points accounted for by Braden Smith and 30.

And his greatest ability is to pass the ball and it's the ability to make others better

and over achieve.

So don't help.

Make him shoot mid-rangeers and floaters over Kreevoss and defend Traykov and round

the short roll.

Bodies on Fletcher lawyer in the short and in the strong side corner make Matt Painter

only win with execution and when they have to go man-to-man Arizona should not help.

Make Traykov and ran shoot hard shots, hook shots over the length.

He's very good at that.

Make Braden Smith, most importantly, shoot mid-rangeers that he doesn't necessarily want to shoot

when he wants to find the ball inside.

Lawyers the weapon to keep away and keep away from good looks.

He is the guy that Matt Painter is going to scheme for open threes.

There's going to get him open.

You hope he misses some, but for the most part you got to keep him and do not help, do

not let him get loose.

He's a guy who's a bit of a, when he's good, he's really good, when he's off, he's a bit

off.

And you hope for that, but also I think Arizona's got the ability to make him feel off because

they have size and the ability to punish him on the other end.

Now another thing that Purdue does very well because they have an all-American point guard

is they don't turn the ball over very much.

A key that I would give is get a few steals and run.

If Arizona can get a few steals and run, I think that they can win this game by a lot

because Purdue doesn't turn the ball over and Arizona's got a big athleticism advantage.

They should win the paint points.

They should be able to get to the free throw line against Purdue and they should be able

to score against a team that's not particularly good defensively.

But if they can get out and run, I don't think Purdue's going to have the way to score enough

points to stay with an Arizona team that can speed this game up.

Arkansas tried to play a track me and out run Arizona.

And you saw John Calipari talk about it, he's like, yeah, this is a bad match, I didn't

want to see because of the size, but also athleticism.

Purdue's not going to try to play fast.

In fact, they're going to try to slow this game down.

But if Arizona can get out and score and transition, so I'm going to say I want ten or

more points off of turnovers, and of course, I would like, you know, fifteen or more

off of second chance points.

I want to see Coa Pete.

This has been a recurring theme.

I said this just about every game recently.

And Coa Pete plays assertively early in the game and takes it to the opposing four and

five men.

The other team really struggles to deal with that because of course, there's Tobio Walker

coming in to battle and bludgeon the opponents and will creep us as the height.

So Pete's got a mismatch and he can go, he can go at Traycoff and Renn and make Traycoff

and Renn one tired from defending, defending him, but two also maybe has to relent because

he knows how vital he is on the court.

The other thing is Traycoff and Renn is going to try his savvy tricks each ride and frankly,

it was dirty.

And at the game, he got away with multiple hook and holds and he's going to try to do so

and get Arizona and Falchull.

See if Arizona can put an onus on him, defend and get him in Falchull and Coa Pete's the

key to that.

And Bradley should be very aggressive in attacking Gray and Smith.

Gray and Smith is a good defender actually, but he's very small.

And if you're going to attack, the reason that Purdue is not very good at defending

picking roles one because their guards aren't particularly great on defense, but two,

they don't have shoppers.

It's strong dudes, big strong physical players, but they're not athletes near the room.

Jayden Bradley should be able to get all the way to the room and score at the rack against

not very good shop blockers.

And speaking of aggression, I really do think Purdue is outmaned in this.

I think Arizona can absolutely outman out physical out athlete this team and live at the

foul line and also get Purdue into an uncomfortable situation where they have to play more quickly.

They have to relent and give up easy baskets by not fouling and therefore they have to

play more quickly.

And I just think you could get away from them.

Of course, they've got a ton of composure, they've played a ton of big games.

And I think the biggest thing that scares me of this game for Arizona is just how composed

Gray and Smith and Fletcher lawyer, those type of guys will be when playing good athletes,

when playing against strong opponents because they've played in national championships.

They've played in big games, they expect to be here.

And some teams do not.

I expect Arizona with that all said to score in the paint and live in the paint as well.

And of course, you add a couple of threes, this game becomes different.

I expect around 60 pop points, paint oriented points and Arizona had 90 against Arkansas,

90, which means they've scored X amount of points in the paint and X amount of free throws.

It added up to 90, it was 60 points in the paint and 30 made free throws yesterday.

I'm going to say 60 pop points in this game, Arizona should win and they should win comfortably.

I think they could exceed that, but that's a number I will leave as kind of the baseline.

I think the slower pace means there's fewer free throws, but I do think Arizona lives at the line again.

And coming up next, I'll give you my score predictions, statistical leaders,

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Welcome back to Lockdown Wildcat.

Leave to lean with you here.

So you know I like to get in the nitty-gritty.

I gave you the analytical stuff about make, brain, smith, shoot, Arizona should dominate in the glass.

But who's going to guard who?

It's basketball.

We've got to talk about matchups.

So here are my predicted matchups.

And I'm not going to go anything too crazy.

I was a little surprised.

Burries defended A-Cuff at the start.

You saw Bradley defending plenty.

And you saw A-Cuff try to defend Burries, Burries scored early.

Most of the other matchups made sense to me.

In this case, I think it'll be similar.

I could be off by one, depending on matchups.

I think you'll mostly get Bradley on Smith.

You could see some Burries.

You could see some Kartchenko.

But I think it'll mostly be Bradley.

I'd be interested if they were to put Kartchenko on him

and make him just shoot over length the whole time.

Kartchenko just kind of hounds him.

And then they put some speed on lawyer to run around those screens.

Because they're going to run a billion screens for lawyer.

And my belief is that Kartchenko defense lawyer.

But I would not be surprised to see that flip in Kartchenko defend Smith.

And you see Bradley flyer on screens and defend Fletcher lawyer

and try to make it hard because his speed impacts the shooting Fletcher lawyer.

Arizona has done that a couple of times.

He defended Mom Chilovich.

So that's, I kind of think that's possible.

I'll go Bradley on Smith, Burries on Cox, Kartchenko on lawyer.

But it could be Bradley and Kartchenko flip,

Pete on Traykov and Ren.

I'll be interested to see that matchup because Pete,

he's very strong, he'll hold his weight.

But he is prone to fouling and Traykov and Ren's savvy.

But I was, I was actually at this point.

I really liked Traykov and Ren.

I thought he was dirty in that game,

got away with some hook and holes.

It was clever.

It was absolutely necessary.

He won the game by fouling out,

vocalized the first half and the second half.

And when I say fouling out, I'm not saying quite literally

fouling out of the game.

But it made him be taken out of the game by Sean Miller.

And I think that could be interesting.

Of course, a walker can come in.

And of course, Kreeboss can guard him as well.

And then I think Kreeboss will guard Kluff.

I think Purdue goes Smith on Bradley, Cox on Burries,

Cox is their best perimeter defender.

I'll go lawyer on Kartchenko.

I can see Kartchenko drive lawyer and score.

He attacks closeouts well.

Traykov and Ren on Pete, Kluff on Kreeboss.

I think Yvonne can attack Cox, like I said.

I think Burries and Bradley should attack Picking Rolls

because we talked about how weak Purdue

is in defending Picking Rolls for the ball handlers.

And I expect Purdue to try a secret weapon of playing.

Daniel Jacobson, a seven foot four,

kind of little used big guy on their team.

I could see them trying to match size with him

and play he and Traykov and Ren

try to alter Arizona from what they're used to

and maybe make themselves a little more stout

on the interior defensively,

but sacrifice a little bit on the rebound.

I know he's very tall, but Oscar Kluff

is a better rebound during his more sturdy.

Those are a couple of predictions I have.

Now let's get to the game script.

The game script to me is this game will be slower

than the game against Arkansas,

which is nothing crazy to say.

Like everyone knows that Arkansas wanted to track me,

but they got what they asked for in Arizona school though.

Arizona school is 128.5 points per 100 possessions.

Purdue gives up 100.

Arizona only gives up 90 per 100 possessions.

And then if you were to look at tempo,

tempo is that they're similar in this,

but Purdue is definitely slower.

Purdue's in the 300s.

They usually take about 19 seconds

of the 30 second shot clock,

which is 312th in the country.

I think Purdue's gonna want to keep this game in the 70s

and give themselves a chance and by virtue of that,

I think that Arizona probably doesn't score too many more points

than 75 to 80.

But I think Purdue has a harder time scoring

than they typically do against Arizona.

One, because Arizona is very good defensively.

But two, and most importantly,

I just think the person that's hard for what Purdue does well

is they overwhelm you on the interior

and then they have guys who can knock down shots.

I think Arizona is going to take away the three-point line

and it's going to be Purdue mid-range jump shots

and push shots from Ferry Coffman and Hook shots

and Ferry Coffman mid-range jump shots from Brainsman.

I think Fletcher, lawyer, is going to have a hard time

getting shots off against the Arizona defense.

And the more I talk, the more I think Bradley will guard him actually.

And I think it's just going to be hard

for Purdue to generate enough shots

to score enough points to outweigh the possession advantage

that Arizona, I think, should have by one,

free throws getting easy shots near the rim,

free throws and layups, as well as offensive rebounds.

I think Arizona, hot take here.

I think Arizona's going to make more threes

than Purdue in this game.

I think Arizona's going to be so determined to take away

the three-point line for Fletcher,

where you're going to see a guy like Anthony Delor

so hit a couple threes.

He's been relatively quiet.

I think Braden Burries can really thrive in this game.

I think Jaden Bradley can get to the wreck.

So I haven't looked at any of the Kenpon projections

or anything like that.

I think the spread's about five and a half points.

I think Arizona wins by 10.

I think Arizona wins by 10.

I'm going to go 8170, I'll go 11.

8170 Arizona beats Purdue.

I think Matt Painter makes this game close

because I think he's an amazing tactical coach.

They may slow the game down.

They may not have many turnovers,

but I just think in watching these two teams play

that Arizona's on a different level than Purdue.

I was there at the game and I just believe

that Arizona's size, straight togetherness,

ability to score from different positions.

It's not just one guy.

We've had six guys who are over double digits.

The seventh guy, score eight.

And you're able to generate good looks.

Manufacturers those looks through time and time again

and also defend at a very high level.

I believe Arizona is going to win this game by double digits

and advance their first final four since 2001

and the first one under Tommy Lloyd.

Please let me know what your guys' thoughts are on the game.

Your comment, your scores below, some x factors,

thoughts that you believe in.

I'll tell you who my leading score is right here.

I've got Jade and Bradley leading the way in this game

for Arizona.

He's going to take the Brayden Smith match up personally

and he's going to score around 20 points in this game,

get him to the rack.

And I think you're going to see a nice performance

from Anthony DeLore, so hitting a couple of threes

and Purdue packs at him.

That's my prediction.

I think the veterans lead the way,

most crevades with a double double as well.

And you see, of course, the 10 and a buries and P effective.

It's a team affair.

It's hard to predict, particularly in score.

I'll go burries.

I'm sorry, Bradley with 20 to lead the way for Arizona.

And a couple of clutch shots from Anthony DeLore,

so to fend off a late Purdue rally, Arizona by 11,

Arizona to the final four and likely setting up a date

with Michigan.

I'd imagine Michigan's going to find their way there as well.

Thank you guys for tuning into today's show.

It's locked on Wildcats.

Tomorrow, I will have a post cast after this game.

And if you're at the game, please come say hi.

I sat by a lovely Arizona fan by the name of James.

We sat next to him again tomorrow.

And I met one guy who walked by and said, oh, I love your show.

So it would really appreciate you guys for tuning in.

We'd love to meet some of you guys at the game.

Let me know in the comments if you're going to be there.

And if you haven't already, follow me on Twitter.

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Unless you build with tracks.

Maureen Gray decking is 100% submersible for docs.

Built to last, it resists Rott, warping, and decay and salt and fresh water.

For homeowners, that means care free days on the water, not constant maintenance.

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Water has met its match.

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Performance engineered for your life outdoors.

Visit trex.com slash docs.

Snoring, gasping during sleep, feeling fatigued?

Wake up to Zeppbound, Terzeppetide.

The first and only FDA approved prescription medicine for moderate to severe obstructive

sleep apnea, OSA, and adults with obesity.

Zeppbound is an injectable prescription medicine that may help adults with moderate to severe

obstructive sleep apnea, OSA, and obesity to improve their OSA.

Zeppbound should be used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity.

Zeppbound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection.

Zeppbound contains Terzeppetide and should not be used with other Terzeppetide-containing products

or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines.

It is not known if Zeppbound is safe and effective for use in children.

Do not share needles or pens or reuse needles.

Don't take Zeppbound if allergic to it, or if you or someone in your family had medullary

thyroid cancer or multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2.

Tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck.

Stop Zeppbound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic

reaction.

Severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gall bladder problems.

Tell your doctor if you experience vision changes, depression, or suicidal thoughts before

schedule procedures with anesthesia.

If you're nursing, pregnant, planned to be or taking birth control pills, taking Zeppbound

with a sulfonoluria or insulin may cause a little blood sugar.

Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen

kidney problems.

Talk to your doctor.

Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit zeppbound.lily.com.

Zeppbound and its delivery device base in QuickPin are registered trademarks owned or licensed

by Eli Lilly and company.

It's subsidiaries or affiliates.

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it matters where you stay.

With Hilton Honors, earn the most valuable gold status faster and unlock benefits at

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