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Audience and as you can see I'm still trying to monetize hope
Yeah, you look like you're in great shape. Oh, I'm doing great
Like sort of you serum things going on or what? It's it's our longevity exprise. We're we're getting there
But you're getting there. I think I think in our last conversation
You're getting on board with the idea of extended longevity. Yes
Yeah
We've got that something great. I mean, I got it if we wanted everyone to live with whatever but I think
Health spend and and not
You know having an extended period of senescence where you're just brewing in yourself sounds like a good idea
We want to avoid that. Yeah, so first off congratulations on the merger of SpaceX and XAI baller move
Gonna power humanity's first Dyson swarm
So I'm curious
It truly is
What's your timeline for launching these data centers and how much bandwidth do you think you can get in the first year?
Give us a sense of the speed at which you're gonna be making this happen
Yeah, so SpaceX is
Has felt
SpaceX is in the quiet period. I can't to actually
Tell you things that would cause problems
Yeah
I'll leave it. I'll leave it that I appreciate that but can't wait for
For the speed, you know, we had a conversation here on Monday with with Eric Schmidt and
with
When the leads from one of the other
Hyperscalers I won't mention who but I'm curious where you feel we are in recursive self-improvement
Are we there do you see Groc doing recursive self-improvement at this point and how and what's a timeline for AGI and ASI give us a sense of that?
Yeah, I think we've been in recursive improvement for a while here
You say if you're considering if you mean by like recursive self-improvement without a human in the loop
Is that what you mean? I do I on the AI software side
I
Mean he was a gradually getting less and less in the loop on the recursive self-improvement so you know every success of model
Is built by the one before it
so
That that is happening to a large degree, but
It's it's not yet fully automated
Um
It may be there
And if this year, but I'm not later than next year
Do you see a heart take off at that point?
We're in the heart take off. Okay, right now. Yes. I mean look at so I mean at this point I
Go to sleep
This on passive AGI breakthrough and when I wake up there's another one
Yes
Yeah, it's hard to keep track honestly, so yeah, it's a bit of a head spinner. Yeah, well, I think a lot of the head spinning is happening from you to
Yeah
Well, you know, Groxton pretty well and in some metrics by some metrics is the best for example
It's the best at predicting things which you know, it's arguably the
Best metric for intelligence
The new rock for 4.2 zero is it's really really good
Where we're currently behind on coding
The reason I was but but late for this was that I was just in a giant sort of all-hand sort of on coding
Just going through all of the things that need to happen to
Essentially catch up and exceed our competitors on coding
Which I think I think we'll do I feel you know, we should probably get there by the middle of this year and
And then I
Think we'll don't quite understand just how
Much intelligence that will be or you're just how far it will exceed human intelligence
to degree that is
Impossible to fully understand
But you can still imagine a situation where
We
Let's say at this day a million times more energy is a harnessed
Then all of Earth's current electricity usage
That would still only be a roughly a millionth of the Sun's
Energy output
So essentially if you increase Earth's economy by a factor of a million is still roughly a trillion as
So since we're a trillionth of the Sun's energy if you increase
This economy and in terms of electricity usage by roughly a million you will be roughly one millionth only of the Sun's energy
Harnessed
But what is it what is what is an economy or an intelligence using a million times more electricity than all of a civilization
Think about what look like or do
It's going to be something pretty magnificent
The challenge will be even vaguely appreciating the embed level of intelligence
But it's it's safe to say we'll it will solve everything you can possibly think of yes long trip
What are you being you know silly one of them and I do enjoy your unrelenting optimism
Thank you, pal. I see you I see you
Yeah, exactly you take it a heart monetizing hope which is pretty funny
Yes, it was
It was Grox it it was Grox marketing advice to me when you've roasted beyond
I see and saying you monetize
But hey if you've been a minute it's better than monetizing misery as well. Yes
For sure
But yeah, just
We have a and robots are gonna
Increase the
Economic output or by by so many orders magnitude we we cannot possibly cover it
We're
Likely in the very short time to become a minority than a vast minority than a microscopic minority of intelligence on this planet
Yes, no even on this planet in the slow system. Yes, for sure because
Like if you know your best case outcome for
Earth for intelligence is roughly one billionth of the Sun's energy
That's your best case outcome
If you if you if you generate intelligence only on earth intercept it right
Yes, yes, because roughly one or roughly half a billion for the Sun's energy hits Earth and that's the vast majority of energy that that's out there
But that that we can access
so
Really the intelligence the sole system will be many
Ordering to greater than the intelligence on of itself
How I can ask a question Elon how far out can you see how many years out can you make reasonable predictions right now?
It's hard to predict the
The path exactly especially because often things are kind of an S-curve
Or a series of S curves where the South talk slow
Grow as exponentially its linear zone and then goes logarithmic
That generally is been what what I've seen with breakthroughs in AI for example is you'll you'll be some breakthrough. It'll do
Have an S-curve
And then looks like it's just gonna go to infinity, but then you hit logarithmic returns until there's another breakthrough. Yep
So progress in the eyes just as sort of series of you know sort of overlapping S-curves
We'll connect it S-curves
I mean there was a point where you could probably predict out a decade or two decades
What are your thoughts now?
Okay, this is gonna sound pretty crazy
It's okay. We've been we've been talking about
Creature as a separate receptive audience to wild prognostications. Yes
I'd say the economy is ten times this it's current size in ten years
Greater than okay
Yeah, you think so. Yeah, you'd said triple digit growth in in five plus years from now on on GDP
in 10x the economy
But in terms of your ability like I feel like that's that's that's a 10x and roughly 10 years
I feel is
Actually, I felt a comfortable prediction with
This is if if there's like World War three or something that could put a king in those
Plants or those expectations. Yeah, but in the absence of World War three if current trends continue, I would say the
The economy 10x is in 10 years
Love it. Can you give us and we had a bunch of
We'll have a base on the moon. Yes, and we'll and we'll have people on Mars and we'll have mass drivers on the moon. Yes
I think so in 10 years. I think I think I think we'll have a mass driver in the moon on 10 years. I love it Gerard K. O'Neill's
vision
being fulfilled
We had a four robots on stage here this year
On the abundance summit. I look forward to Optimus. I'm curious Optimus three
Timeline and in particular when can I buy one or two?
When's when do you expect Optimus to go into commercial for commercial sale or would you be leasing it?
Well, we're in the file stages of completion of Optimus three, which is really going to be by far the most advanced robot in the world. Nothing's even close. Yeah
Then I've even sent any to see any demos of robots that are as good as on Optimus three frankly. Maybe they're out there or they're secret or something. I don't know but
Yeah, and I have to make sure I'm saying things that are reasonably public as well of course, but we're streaming this on X. Yeah, okay, this is pretty public in action. Yes
Yeah, I think we'll start production on Optimus three
the summer
But very slow at first. Yeah, and like it, you know, there's sort of classic SCO ramp of manufacturing units versus time
And then probably reach high volume production around summer next year
And then
You know, we'll have after this war
You know
Designically next year. I got to try to release a new robot design every year. I'm in improvement design every year
When when Dave Blondon and I were at the Gigafactory was extraordinary experience 11 and a half million square feet for the Tesla
And then I think you said you're building out nine and a half million square feet for Optimus there as well, which is which is extraordinary
Let's let's
That's going to be a
New factory design to like it's not different from other factories
How far before we have robots building robots? I mean you automated so much of the Gigafactory already
Where they're humans playing a small role? Do the robots just play the role that humans are playing in that regard?
We still have a lot of humans building things
You know to Tesla director employees who are building things or like basically people in the factory are either building a managing people who are building
It's roughly a hundred thousand
So we have a lot of people is a Tesla total hit counts around 150k of which two things are you know in the factory one form or another and then our suppliers is probably
Maybe a million or two million people in our suppliers type of things. So it's a lot of people
What we do expect that is that is that the output per
Person at Tesla becomes very very high. Yeah, so we're not planning any like layoffs or reductions in personnel in fact
We will increase our head count
But the output per human at Tesla is going to get nutty high
When we were
Well, we were together
We discussed the idea of sustainable abundance on our podcast and you reinforce the idea that we have a coming age of universal high income
Which has become a point of discussion beyond UBI
But I'm just wondering if you have any thoughts on how we get there. Have you reflected not any further and
And more so, you know, we talked about a time frame of civil unrest, you know two three four or five years
probably a lot of
COVID-like checks in the interim until we get to a demonetization
And a deflation that leads us to UHI any more reflections on that. It's a really people need that hope in that vision
Yeah, I mean to be clear
I don't think we should be sort of complacent. We need to we do need to be careful because
the future is a range of possible outcomes and they're not all great
But I at this point I do agree with you that it's it's likely to be great
You know, it's probably 80% likely they're more likely to be great and
And I do think we'll have universal income. We're basically just issue money to people you know and the really just
Because the output of goods and services will both so far exceed the money supply that
You know that that that effectively have deflation is just deflation is just the ratio of the outputs and goods and services to the money supply
So that that's so if if the rate of growth of goods and services far exceeds the rate of growth of the money supply, which I predict will happen
Then you will have deflation
Yes
And a lot of a lot of people spinning up new companies competing against each other driving the price down and quite increasing the variability and
deflation
Faster and faster
Yeah, it's basically AI and robots are going to make some of stuff and probably any services
That they will actually run out of things to do for the humans
They'll just run out of things to do for the humans and then they
Well, you know
There's only so much that humans can even express that they want
So you go back to my example of like if you go a million times greater than the cost economy
You you long since saturated all human desire
You know like maybe like if you go a thousand times more than our current economy thousand times
You you probably were already saturated saturated human anything people can think of that they want
So do you think the the value of money is going to significantly decrease will it will we go post capitalist?
Yeah, I think money will stop being
relevant at some point in the future
So just as you're becoming like it's it's probably something like an in-banks
Uh culture sort of future
um
And I think the AI down the road will really
Not use
Human currency it will just care about power and mass what is in tonnage?
It's kind of ironic then right just as you're becoming a multi-trillionaire money starts to have less value
Yeah, pretty much
um
Yeah, you know this is all the stuff. It's it's really just
Trillionaires represents like some percentage ownership in companies that I
You know bolt and
It's not like sitting in the bank cap that you know, it's it's just literally I own a percentage of the companies
The companies are doing lots of useful things the
Value company grows I own a percentage of the companies and that's the sums up to that number which seems high
Yeah, you know, it's I was interviewed by somebody who was asking me about your your drive what drives you and
I said
Elon's driven to solve problems. He's driven to make
Life in the world better by just solving the biggest problems over and over and over again
And if someone else were solving them, he wouldn't need to but no one else is solving them
So I just want to say
Thank you for that pal. Thank you for that
I am curious do you think that
Democracy and our modern institutions can keep up with a supersonic tsunami coming our way
Are they just gonna fall in its way they're just gonna break down? How do we deal?
I mean it's called the singularity for a reason, you know
That it's hard to predict what happens in that in the singularity. I mean
Grox logo is the singularity. I love it. It's a beautiful logo behind you by the way. It's gorgeous. Yeah. Thank you
Uh, yeah
It's of the light the light that the
The halo around a black hole is the mass and light are falling in type of thing
Um, it's hard. It's hard to know what happens inside the singularity
Um, but it's gonna be very interesting like we're gonna live in the future. We're very entertaining of that. I'm confident. Yes
and uh
I think also like AI and robotics
All the only way we're gonna solve our budget deficit frankly and not just go bankrupt as a country
um, so
I
I'm you know, okay, you've had an influence on me and then I'm like this
I've just decided to be more optimistic. It's like we just should be more optimistic. Thank you pal
I wasn't up to an optimist, but I was like maybe rolling a little too much on the negatives though
It's all it's all upside being an optimist
And a realist a little bit
Yeah, yeah, yeah exactly
You don't want to be complacent or just assume everything's gonna go well, but try to make it go well
um
But I mean, there won't be some pretty amazing things that happen
so if you've got
humanoid robots that are that have very high dexterity and
uh, and and and are incredibly smart it means that everyone on earth
Will have access to better medical care
than uh, than the richest person on earth, which by the way, I would say like
You know, if I'm allegedly the rich person or what I think actually sovereigns are richer than me by the way
But it's like you know, I like I had to have like a like an x surgery three times because the first two ones were done wrong
You know, I like this. I'm like what that, you know
um
So
And I'm like my back still hurts a little bit. I'm like
I can AI please solve back pain. That would be a huge one. And I think it will
Yep
So, you know, caffeine sucks. I think that's maybe like
You know, sometimes why do people get drunk when they get old? It's because it's back pain
It's like you're backwards all the time you can't sleep while you're gonna be bumpy. We had
But you you know, we had David Sinclair on stage this morning and he's going into human trials with uh,
ER100 his partial objectic reprogramming and
One of the one of the papers recently published shows it
Enables joint repair and so back pain may be one of the things that it eliminates so
I hope you're amazing. Yeah, for sure
Honestly, I was having a several appointments. We just go upstream tremendously if you just solve back pain because
It's it's not a question of if you'll get back pain. It's when you know, you'll get back pain
I I keep my advice not a good design. I keep my inviting you to come down to fountain life and in
In Dallas. We'll uh, we'll help you out
But sometime when you have to have like what do you I understand like you can get like MRI and cascans or anything
But like what do you do with that? It was like
Happy does happy to send you the list. I'll I'll DM you the list
Listen, you've been so generous next up on stage with me is one of another great moonshot entrepreneur Ben Lamb who runs colossal
The de extinction company
You know the woolly mammoth and 15 other species
I heard yeah, I heard you say you might want a mini woolly mammoth. Is that is that true? Yeah, I think it'd be really cool to have a pet
Minotaur woolly mammoth that we pretty happy
Okay, I'll put a word in for you with with with with
I'll be adorable little things that's running around trumpeting away, and it's like look at this
You're a great little pet
I can somebody please do Jurassic Park in real life. Well, I definitely go even if it was some risk of death
And he's super cool
I think if anybody's gonna do that. It's it's Ben Lamb and colossal. He's re he's engineering living life products
Someone asked him recently if he can make a Pikachu and he said probably I think
Yeah
Well Jurassic Jurassic world. Oh, that would be great. All right. I'll ask him. Yeah, Elon so grateful for you coming and joining us and sharing
Thank you my thank you my friend. Let's give it up for Elon Musk
Moonshots with Peter Diamandis



