Elon Musk: Optimus 3 Is Coming, Recursive Self-Improvement Is Already Here, and the Singularity | #239

0:00Audience and as you can see I'm still trying to monetize hope Yeah, you look like you're in great shape. Oh, I'm doing great Like sort of you serum things going on or what? It's it's our longevity exprise. We're we're getting there But you're getting there. I think I think in our last conversation You're getting on board with the idea of extended longevity. Yes Yeah We've got that something great. I mean, I got it if we wanted everyone to live with whatever but I think Health spend and and not You know having an extended period of senescence where you're just brewing in yourself sounds like a good idea We want to avoid that. Yeah, so first off congratulations on the merger of SpaceX and XAI baller move Gonna power humanity's first Dyson swarm So I'm curious It truly is What's your timeline for launching these data centers and how much bandwidth do you think you can get in the first year?

1:05Give us a sense of the speed at which you're gonna be making this happen Yeah, so SpaceX is Has felt SpaceX is in the quiet period. I can't to actually Tell you things that would cause problems Yeah I'll leave it. I'll leave it that I appreciate that but can't wait for For the speed, you know, we had a conversation here on Monday with with Eric Schmidt and with When the leads from one of the other Hyperscalers I won't mention who but I'm curious where you feel we are in recursive self-improvement Are we there do you see Groc doing recursive self-improvement at this point and how and what's a timeline for AGI and ASI give us a sense of that? Yeah, I think we've been in recursive improvement for a while here

2:09You say if you're considering if you mean by like recursive self-improvement without a human in the loop Is that what you mean? I do I on the AI software side I Mean he was a gradually getting less and less in the loop on the recursive self-improvement so you know every success of model Is built by the one before it so That that is happening to a large degree, but It's it's not yet fully automated Um It may be there And if this year, but I'm not later than next year Do you see a heart take off at that point? We're in the heart take off. Okay, right now. Yes. I mean look at so I mean at this point I

3:10Go to sleep This on passive AGI breakthrough and when I wake up there's another one Yes Yeah, it's hard to keep track honestly, so yeah, it's a bit of a head spinner. Yeah, well, I think a lot of the head spinning is happening from you to Yeah Well, you know, Groxton pretty well and in some metrics by some metrics is the best for example It's the best at predicting things which you know, it's arguably the Best metric for intelligence The new rock for 4.2 zero is it's really really good Where we're currently behind on coding The reason I was but but late for this was that I was just in a giant sort of all-hand sort of on coding Just going through all of the things that need to happen to Essentially catch up and exceed our competitors on coding

4:11Which I think I think we'll do I feel you know, we should probably get there by the middle of this year and And then I Think we'll don't quite understand just how Much intelligence that will be or you're just how far it will exceed human intelligence to degree that is Impossible to fully understand But you can still imagine a situation where We Let's say at this day a million times more energy is a harnessed Then all of Earth's current electricity usage That would still only be a roughly a millionth of the Sun's Energy output So essentially if you increase Earth's economy by a factor of a million is still roughly a trillion as So since we're a trillionth of the Sun's energy if you increase This economy and in terms of electricity usage by roughly a million you will be roughly one millionth only of the Sun's energy

5:15Harnessed But what is it what is what is an economy or an intelligence using a million times more electricity than all of a civilization Think about what look like or do It's going to be something pretty magnificent The challenge will be even vaguely appreciating the embed level of intelligence But it's it's safe to say we'll it will solve everything you can possibly think of yes long trip What are you being you know silly one of them and I do enjoy your unrelenting optimism Thank you, pal. I see you I see you Yeah, exactly you take it a heart monetizing hope which is pretty funny Yes, it was It was Grox it it was Grox marketing advice to me when you've roasted beyond I see and saying you monetize But hey if you've been a minute it's better than monetizing misery as well. Yes

6:17For sure But yeah, just We have a and robots are gonna Increase the Economic output or by by so many orders magnitude we we cannot possibly cover it We're Likely in the very short time to become a minority than a vast minority than a microscopic minority of intelligence on this planet Yes, no even on this planet in the slow system. Yes, for sure because Like if you know your best case outcome for Earth for intelligence is roughly one billionth of the Sun's energy That's your best case outcome If you if you if you generate intelligence only on earth intercept it right Yes, yes, because roughly one or roughly half a billion for the Sun's energy hits Earth and that's the vast majority of energy that that's out there

7:24But that that we can access so Really the intelligence the sole system will be many Ordering to greater than the intelligence on of itself How I can ask a question Elon how far out can you see how many years out can you make reasonable predictions right now? It's hard to predict the The path exactly especially because often things are kind of an S-curve Or a series of S curves where the South talk slow Grow as exponentially its linear zone and then goes logarithmic That generally is been what what I've seen with breakthroughs in AI for example is you'll you'll be some breakthrough. It'll do Have an S-curve And then looks like it's just gonna go to infinity, but then you hit logarithmic returns until there's another breakthrough. Yep

8:26So progress in the eyes just as sort of series of you know sort of overlapping S-curves We'll connect it S-curves I mean there was a point where you could probably predict out a decade or two decades What are your thoughts now? Okay, this is gonna sound pretty crazy It's okay. We've been we've been talking about Creature as a separate receptive audience to wild prognostications. Yes I'd say the economy is ten times this it's current size in ten years Greater than okay Yeah, you think so. Yeah, you'd said triple digit growth in in five plus years from now on on GDP

9:33in 10x the economy But in terms of your ability like I feel like that's that's that's a 10x and roughly 10 years I feel is Actually, I felt a comfortable prediction with This is if if there's like World War three or something that could put a king in those Plants or those expectations. Yeah, but in the absence of World War three if current trends continue, I would say the The economy 10x is in 10 years Love it. Can you give us and we had a bunch of We'll have a base on the moon. Yes, and we'll and we'll have people on Mars and we'll have mass drivers on the moon. Yes I think so in 10 years. I think I think I think we'll have a mass driver in the moon on 10 years. I love it Gerard K. O'Neill's vision being fulfilled We had a four robots on stage here this year

10:35On the abundance summit. I look forward to Optimus. I'm curious Optimus three Timeline and in particular when can I buy one or two? When's when do you expect Optimus to go into commercial for commercial sale or would you be leasing it? Well, we're in the file stages of completion of Optimus three, which is really going to be by far the most advanced robot in the world. Nothing's even close. Yeah Then I've even sent any to see any demos of robots that are as good as on Optimus three frankly. Maybe they're out there or they're secret or something. I don't know but Yeah, and I have to make sure I'm saying things that are reasonably public as well of course, but we're streaming this on X. Yeah, okay, this is pretty public in action. Yes

11:36Yeah, I think we'll start production on Optimus three the summer But very slow at first. Yeah, and like it, you know, there's sort of classic SCO ramp of manufacturing units versus time And then probably reach high volume production around summer next year And then You know, we'll have after this war You know Designically next year. I got to try to release a new robot design every year. I'm in improvement design every year When when Dave Blondon and I were at the Gigafactory was extraordinary experience 11 and a half million square feet for the Tesla And then I think you said you're building out nine and a half million square feet for Optimus there as well, which is which is extraordinary Let's let's

12:40That's going to be a New factory design to like it's not different from other factories How far before we have robots building robots? I mean you automated so much of the Gigafactory already Where they're humans playing a small role? Do the robots just play the role that humans are playing in that regard? We still have a lot of humans building things You know to Tesla director employees who are building things or like basically people in the factory are either building a managing people who are building It's roughly a hundred thousand So we have a lot of people is a Tesla total hit counts around 150k of which two things are you know in the factory one form or another and then our suppliers is probably Maybe a million or two million people in our suppliers type of things. So it's a lot of people

13:40What we do expect that is that is that the output per Person at Tesla becomes very very high. Yeah, so we're not planning any like layoffs or reductions in personnel in fact We will increase our head count But the output per human at Tesla is going to get nutty high When we were Well, we were together We discussed the idea of sustainable abundance on our podcast and you reinforce the idea that we have a coming age of universal high income Which has become a point of discussion beyond UBI But I'm just wondering if you have any thoughts on how we get there. Have you reflected not any further and And more so, you know, we talked about a time frame of civil unrest, you know two three four or five years probably a lot of COVID-like checks in the interim until we get to a demonetization

14:43And a deflation that leads us to UHI any more reflections on that. It's a really people need that hope in that vision Yeah, I mean to be clear I don't think we should be sort of complacent. We need to we do need to be careful because the future is a range of possible outcomes and they're not all great But I at this point I do agree with you that it's it's likely to be great You know, it's probably 80% likely they're more likely to be great and And I do think we'll have universal income. We're basically just issue money to people you know and the really just Because the output of goods and services will both so far exceed the money supply that You know that that that effectively have deflation is just deflation is just the ratio of the outputs and goods and services to the money supply So that that's so if if the rate of growth of goods and services far exceeds the rate of growth of the money supply, which I predict will happen

15:52Then you will have deflation Yes And a lot of a lot of people spinning up new companies competing against each other driving the price down and quite increasing the variability and deflation Faster and faster Yeah, it's basically AI and robots are going to make some of stuff and probably any services That they will actually run out of things to do for the humans They'll just run out of things to do for the humans and then they Well, you know There's only so much that humans can even express that they want So you go back to my example of like if you go a million times greater than the cost economy You you long since saturated all human desire You know like maybe like if you go a thousand times more than our current economy thousand times You you probably were already saturated saturated human anything people can think of that they want

16:53So do you think the the value of money is going to significantly decrease will it will we go post capitalist? Yeah, I think money will stop being relevant at some point in the future So just as you're becoming like it's it's probably something like an in-banks Uh culture sort of future um And I think the AI down the road will really Not use Human currency it will just care about power and mass what is in tonnage? It's kind of ironic then right just as you're becoming a multi-trillionaire money starts to have less value Yeah, pretty much um Yeah, you know this is all the stuff. It's it's really just Trillionaires represents like some percentage ownership in companies that I

17:54You know bolt and It's not like sitting in the bank cap that you know, it's it's just literally I own a percentage of the companies The companies are doing lots of useful things the Value company grows I own a percentage of the companies and that's the sums up to that number which seems high Yeah, you know, it's I was interviewed by somebody who was asking me about your your drive what drives you and I said Elon's driven to solve problems. He's driven to make Life in the world better by just solving the biggest problems over and over and over again And if someone else were solving them, he wouldn't need to but no one else is solving them So I just want to say Thank you for that pal. Thank you for that I am curious do you think that Democracy and our modern institutions can keep up with a supersonic tsunami coming our way

18:55Are they just gonna fall in its way they're just gonna break down? How do we deal? I mean it's called the singularity for a reason, you know That it's hard to predict what happens in that in the singularity. I mean Grox logo is the singularity. I love it. It's a beautiful logo behind you by the way. It's gorgeous. Yeah. Thank you Uh, yeah It's of the light the light that the The halo around a black hole is the mass and light are falling in type of thing Um, it's hard. It's hard to know what happens inside the singularity Um, but it's gonna be very interesting like we're gonna live in the future. We're very entertaining of that. I'm confident. Yes and uh I think also like AI and robotics All the only way we're gonna solve our budget deficit frankly and not just go bankrupt as a country

19:59um, so I I'm you know, okay, you've had an influence on me and then I'm like this I've just decided to be more optimistic. It's like we just should be more optimistic. Thank you pal I wasn't up to an optimist, but I was like maybe rolling a little too much on the negatives though It's all it's all upside being an optimist And a realist a little bit Yeah, yeah, yeah exactly You don't want to be complacent or just assume everything's gonna go well, but try to make it go well um But I mean, there won't be some pretty amazing things that happen so if you've got humanoid robots that are that have very high dexterity and uh, and and and are incredibly smart it means that everyone on earth Will have access to better medical care than uh, than the richest person on earth, which by the way, I would say like You know, if I'm allegedly the rich person or what I think actually sovereigns are richer than me by the way But it's like you know, I like I had to have like a like an x surgery three times because the first two ones were done wrong

21:06You know, I like this. I'm like what that, you know um So And I'm like my back still hurts a little bit. I'm like I can AI please solve back pain. That would be a huge one. And I think it will Yep So, you know, caffeine sucks. I think that's maybe like You know, sometimes why do people get drunk when they get old? It's because it's back pain It's like you're backwards all the time you can't sleep while you're gonna be bumpy. We had But you you know, we had David Sinclair on stage this morning and he's going into human trials with uh, ER100 his partial objectic reprogramming and One of the one of the papers recently published shows it Enables joint repair and so back pain may be one of the things that it eliminates so I hope you're amazing. Yeah, for sure Honestly, I was having a several appointments. We just go upstream tremendously if you just solve back pain because It's it's not a question of if you'll get back pain. It's when you know, you'll get back pain

22:09I I keep my advice not a good design. I keep my inviting you to come down to fountain life and in In Dallas. We'll uh, we'll help you out But sometime when you have to have like what do you I understand like you can get like MRI and cascans or anything But like what do you do with that? It was like Happy does happy to send you the list. I'll I'll DM you the list Listen, you've been so generous next up on stage with me is one of another great moonshot entrepreneur Ben Lamb who runs colossal The de extinction company You know the woolly mammoth and 15 other species I heard yeah, I heard you say you might want a mini woolly mammoth. Is that is that true? Yeah, I think it'd be really cool to have a pet Minotaur woolly mammoth that we pretty happy Okay, I'll put a word in for you with with with with I'll be adorable little things that's running around trumpeting away, and it's like look at this

23:09You're a great little pet I can somebody please do Jurassic Park in real life. Well, I definitely go even if it was some risk of death And he's super cool I think if anybody's gonna do that. It's it's Ben Lamb and colossal. He's re he's engineering living life products Someone asked him recently if he can make a Pikachu and he said probably I think Yeah Well Jurassic Jurassic world. Oh, that would be great. All right. I'll ask him. Yeah, Elon so grateful for you coming and joining us and sharing Thank you my thank you my friend. Let's give it up for Elon Musk