Elon Musk: Optimus 3 Is Coming, Recursive Self-Improvement Is Already Here, and the Singularity | #239

Audience and as you can see I'm still trying to monetize hope

Yeah, you look like you're in great shape. Oh, I'm doing great

Like sort of you serum things going on or what? It's it's our longevity exprise. We're we're getting there

But you're getting there. I think I think in our last conversation

You're getting on board with the idea of extended longevity. Yes

Yeah

We've got that something great. I mean, I got it if we wanted everyone to live with whatever but I think

Health spend and and not

You know having an extended period of senescence where you're just brewing in yourself sounds like a good idea

We want to avoid that. Yeah, so first off congratulations on the merger of SpaceX and XAI baller move

Gonna power humanity's first Dyson swarm

So I'm curious

It truly is

What's your timeline for launching these data centers and how much bandwidth do you think you can get in the first year?

Give us a sense of the speed at which you're gonna be making this happen

Yeah, so SpaceX is

Has felt

SpaceX is in the quiet period. I can't to actually

Tell you things that would cause problems

Yeah

I'll leave it. I'll leave it that I appreciate that but can't wait for

For the speed, you know, we had a conversation here on Monday with with Eric Schmidt and

with

When the leads from one of the other

Hyperscalers I won't mention who but I'm curious where you feel we are in recursive self-improvement

Are we there do you see Groc doing recursive self-improvement at this point and how and what's a timeline for AGI and ASI give us a sense of that?

Yeah, I think we've been in recursive improvement for a while here

You say if you're considering if you mean by like recursive self-improvement without a human in the loop

Is that what you mean? I do I on the AI software side

I

Mean he was a gradually getting less and less in the loop on the recursive self-improvement so you know every success of model

Is built by the one before it

so

That that is happening to a large degree, but

It's it's not yet fully automated

Um

It may be there

And if this year, but I'm not later than next year

Do you see a heart take off at that point?

We're in the heart take off. Okay, right now. Yes. I mean look at so I mean at this point I

Go to sleep

This on passive AGI breakthrough and when I wake up there's another one

Yes

Yeah, it's hard to keep track honestly, so yeah, it's a bit of a head spinner. Yeah, well, I think a lot of the head spinning is happening from you to

Yeah

Well, you know, Groxton pretty well and in some metrics by some metrics is the best for example

It's the best at predicting things which you know, it's arguably the

Best metric for intelligence

The new rock for 4.2 zero is it's really really good

Where we're currently behind on coding

The reason I was but but late for this was that I was just in a giant sort of all-hand sort of on coding

Just going through all of the things that need to happen to

Essentially catch up and exceed our competitors on coding

Which I think I think we'll do I feel you know, we should probably get there by the middle of this year and

And then I

Think we'll don't quite understand just how

Much intelligence that will be or you're just how far it will exceed human intelligence

to degree that is

Impossible to fully understand

But you can still imagine a situation where

We

Let's say at this day a million times more energy is a harnessed

Then all of Earth's current electricity usage

That would still only be a roughly a millionth of the Sun's

Energy output

So essentially if you increase Earth's economy by a factor of a million is still roughly a trillion as

So since we're a trillionth of the Sun's energy if you increase

This economy and in terms of electricity usage by roughly a million you will be roughly one millionth only of the Sun's energy

Harnessed

But what is it what is what is an economy or an intelligence using a million times more electricity than all of a civilization

Think about what look like or do

It's going to be something pretty magnificent

The challenge will be even vaguely appreciating the embed level of intelligence

But it's it's safe to say we'll it will solve everything you can possibly think of yes long trip

What are you being you know silly one of them and I do enjoy your unrelenting optimism

Thank you, pal. I see you I see you

Yeah, exactly you take it a heart monetizing hope which is pretty funny

Yes, it was

It was Grox it it was Grox marketing advice to me when you've roasted beyond

I see and saying you monetize

But hey if you've been a minute it's better than monetizing misery as well. Yes

For sure

But yeah, just

We have a and robots are gonna

Increase the

Economic output or by by so many orders magnitude we we cannot possibly cover it

We're

Likely in the very short time to become a minority than a vast minority than a microscopic minority of intelligence on this planet

Yes, no even on this planet in the slow system. Yes, for sure because

Like if you know your best case outcome for

Earth for intelligence is roughly one billionth of the Sun's energy

That's your best case outcome

If you if you if you generate intelligence only on earth intercept it right

Yes, yes, because roughly one or roughly half a billion for the Sun's energy hits Earth and that's the vast majority of energy that that's out there

But that that we can access

so

Really the intelligence the sole system will be many

Ordering to greater than the intelligence on of itself

How I can ask a question Elon how far out can you see how many years out can you make reasonable predictions right now?

It's hard to predict the

The path exactly especially because often things are kind of an S-curve

Or a series of S curves where the South talk slow

Grow as exponentially its linear zone and then goes logarithmic

That generally is been what what I've seen with breakthroughs in AI for example is you'll you'll be some breakthrough. It'll do

Have an S-curve

And then looks like it's just gonna go to infinity, but then you hit logarithmic returns until there's another breakthrough. Yep

So progress in the eyes just as sort of series of you know sort of overlapping S-curves

We'll connect it S-curves

I mean there was a point where you could probably predict out a decade or two decades

What are your thoughts now?

Okay, this is gonna sound pretty crazy

It's okay. We've been we've been talking about

Creature as a separate receptive audience to wild prognostications. Yes

I'd say the economy is ten times this it's current size in ten years

Greater than okay

Yeah, you think so. Yeah, you'd said triple digit growth in in five plus years from now on on GDP

in 10x the economy

But in terms of your ability like I feel like that's that's that's a 10x and roughly 10 years

I feel is

Actually, I felt a comfortable prediction with

This is if if there's like World War three or something that could put a king in those

Plants or those expectations. Yeah, but in the absence of World War three if current trends continue, I would say the

The economy 10x is in 10 years

Love it. Can you give us and we had a bunch of

We'll have a base on the moon. Yes, and we'll and we'll have people on Mars and we'll have mass drivers on the moon. Yes

I think so in 10 years. I think I think I think we'll have a mass driver in the moon on 10 years. I love it Gerard K. O'Neill's

vision

being fulfilled

We had a four robots on stage here this year

On the abundance summit. I look forward to Optimus. I'm curious Optimus three

Timeline and in particular when can I buy one or two?

When's when do you expect Optimus to go into commercial for commercial sale or would you be leasing it?

Well, we're in the file stages of completion of Optimus three, which is really going to be by far the most advanced robot in the world. Nothing's even close. Yeah

Then I've even sent any to see any demos of robots that are as good as on Optimus three frankly. Maybe they're out there or they're secret or something. I don't know but

Yeah, and I have to make sure I'm saying things that are reasonably public as well of course, but we're streaming this on X. Yeah, okay, this is pretty public in action. Yes

Yeah, I think we'll start production on Optimus three

the summer

But very slow at first. Yeah, and like it, you know, there's sort of classic SCO ramp of manufacturing units versus time

And then probably reach high volume production around summer next year

And then

You know, we'll have after this war

You know

Designically next year. I got to try to release a new robot design every year. I'm in improvement design every year

When when Dave Blondon and I were at the Gigafactory was extraordinary experience 11 and a half million square feet for the Tesla

And then I think you said you're building out nine and a half million square feet for Optimus there as well, which is which is extraordinary

Let's let's

That's going to be a

New factory design to like it's not different from other factories

How far before we have robots building robots? I mean you automated so much of the Gigafactory already

Where they're humans playing a small role? Do the robots just play the role that humans are playing in that regard?

We still have a lot of humans building things

You know to Tesla director employees who are building things or like basically people in the factory are either building a managing people who are building

It's roughly a hundred thousand

So we have a lot of people is a Tesla total hit counts around 150k of which two things are you know in the factory one form or another and then our suppliers is probably

Maybe a million or two million people in our suppliers type of things. So it's a lot of people

What we do expect that is that is that the output per

Person at Tesla becomes very very high. Yeah, so we're not planning any like layoffs or reductions in personnel in fact

We will increase our head count

But the output per human at Tesla is going to get nutty high

When we were

Well, we were together

We discussed the idea of sustainable abundance on our podcast and you reinforce the idea that we have a coming age of universal high income

Which has become a point of discussion beyond UBI

But I'm just wondering if you have any thoughts on how we get there. Have you reflected not any further and

And more so, you know, we talked about a time frame of civil unrest, you know two three four or five years

probably a lot of

COVID-like checks in the interim until we get to a demonetization

And a deflation that leads us to UHI any more reflections on that. It's a really people need that hope in that vision

Yeah, I mean to be clear

I don't think we should be sort of complacent. We need to we do need to be careful because

the future is a range of possible outcomes and they're not all great

But I at this point I do agree with you that it's it's likely to be great

You know, it's probably 80% likely they're more likely to be great and

And I do think we'll have universal income. We're basically just issue money to people you know and the really just

Because the output of goods and services will both so far exceed the money supply that

You know that that that effectively have deflation is just deflation is just the ratio of the outputs and goods and services to the money supply

So that that's so if if the rate of growth of goods and services far exceeds the rate of growth of the money supply, which I predict will happen

Then you will have deflation

Yes

And a lot of a lot of people spinning up new companies competing against each other driving the price down and quite increasing the variability and

deflation

Faster and faster

Yeah, it's basically AI and robots are going to make some of stuff and probably any services

That they will actually run out of things to do for the humans

They'll just run out of things to do for the humans and then they

Well, you know

There's only so much that humans can even express that they want

So you go back to my example of like if you go a million times greater than the cost economy

You you long since saturated all human desire

You know like maybe like if you go a thousand times more than our current economy thousand times

You you probably were already saturated saturated human anything people can think of that they want

So do you think the the value of money is going to significantly decrease will it will we go post capitalist?

Yeah, I think money will stop being

relevant at some point in the future

So just as you're becoming like it's it's probably something like an in-banks

Uh culture sort of future

um

And I think the AI down the road will really

Not use

Human currency it will just care about power and mass what is in tonnage?

It's kind of ironic then right just as you're becoming a multi-trillionaire money starts to have less value

Yeah, pretty much

um

Yeah, you know this is all the stuff. It's it's really just

Trillionaires represents like some percentage ownership in companies that I

You know bolt and

It's not like sitting in the bank cap that you know, it's it's just literally I own a percentage of the companies

The companies are doing lots of useful things the

Value company grows I own a percentage of the companies and that's the sums up to that number which seems high

Yeah, you know, it's I was interviewed by somebody who was asking me about your your drive what drives you and

I said

Elon's driven to solve problems. He's driven to make

Life in the world better by just solving the biggest problems over and over and over again

And if someone else were solving them, he wouldn't need to but no one else is solving them

So I just want to say

Thank you for that pal. Thank you for that

I am curious do you think that

Democracy and our modern institutions can keep up with a supersonic tsunami coming our way

Are they just gonna fall in its way they're just gonna break down? How do we deal?

I mean it's called the singularity for a reason, you know

That it's hard to predict what happens in that in the singularity. I mean

Grox logo is the singularity. I love it. It's a beautiful logo behind you by the way. It's gorgeous. Yeah. Thank you

Uh, yeah

It's of the light the light that the

The halo around a black hole is the mass and light are falling in type of thing

Um, it's hard. It's hard to know what happens inside the singularity

Um, but it's gonna be very interesting like we're gonna live in the future. We're very entertaining of that. I'm confident. Yes

and uh

I think also like AI and robotics

All the only way we're gonna solve our budget deficit frankly and not just go bankrupt as a country

um, so

I

I'm you know, okay, you've had an influence on me and then I'm like this

I've just decided to be more optimistic. It's like we just should be more optimistic. Thank you pal

I wasn't up to an optimist, but I was like maybe rolling a little too much on the negatives though

It's all it's all upside being an optimist

And a realist a little bit

Yeah, yeah, yeah exactly

You don't want to be complacent or just assume everything's gonna go well, but try to make it go well

um

But I mean, there won't be some pretty amazing things that happen

so if you've got

humanoid robots that are that have very high dexterity and

uh, and and and are incredibly smart it means that everyone on earth

Will have access to better medical care

than uh, than the richest person on earth, which by the way, I would say like

You know, if I'm allegedly the rich person or what I think actually sovereigns are richer than me by the way

But it's like you know, I like I had to have like a like an x surgery three times because the first two ones were done wrong

You know, I like this. I'm like what that, you know

um

So

And I'm like my back still hurts a little bit. I'm like

I can AI please solve back pain. That would be a huge one. And I think it will

Yep

So, you know, caffeine sucks. I think that's maybe like

You know, sometimes why do people get drunk when they get old? It's because it's back pain

It's like you're backwards all the time you can't sleep while you're gonna be bumpy. We had

But you you know, we had David Sinclair on stage this morning and he's going into human trials with uh,

ER100 his partial objectic reprogramming and

One of the one of the papers recently published shows it

Enables joint repair and so back pain may be one of the things that it eliminates so

I hope you're amazing. Yeah, for sure

Honestly, I was having a several appointments. We just go upstream tremendously if you just solve back pain because

It's it's not a question of if you'll get back pain. It's when you know, you'll get back pain

I I keep my advice not a good design. I keep my inviting you to come down to fountain life and in

In Dallas. We'll uh, we'll help you out

But sometime when you have to have like what do you I understand like you can get like MRI and cascans or anything

But like what do you do with that? It was like

Happy does happy to send you the list. I'll I'll DM you the list

Listen, you've been so generous next up on stage with me is one of another great moonshot entrepreneur Ben Lamb who runs colossal

The de extinction company

You know the woolly mammoth and 15 other species

I heard yeah, I heard you say you might want a mini woolly mammoth. Is that is that true? Yeah, I think it'd be really cool to have a pet

Minotaur woolly mammoth that we pretty happy

Okay, I'll put a word in for you with with with with

I'll be adorable little things that's running around trumpeting away, and it's like look at this

You're a great little pet

I can somebody please do Jurassic Park in real life. Well, I definitely go even if it was some risk of death

And he's super cool

I think if anybody's gonna do that. It's it's Ben Lamb and colossal. He's re he's engineering living life products

Someone asked him recently if he can make a Pikachu and he said probably I think

Yeah

Well Jurassic Jurassic world. Oh, that would be great. All right. I'll ask him. Yeah, Elon so grateful for you coming and joining us and sharing

Thank you my thank you my friend. Let's give it up for Elon Musk