Europe braces for an energy crisis

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Good morning. It's Tuesday, March 10, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast.

Yeah, that's the energy I'm bringing today, guys. The vibe in Brussels today, it's pretty frantic.

That's because following the war in Iran, all prices are up, and the EU is scrambling to

find a way to low with them. It's all starting to feel a bit like 2022, but the question is,

have we learned any lessons from that Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Also on the pod, the European People's Party Chief Manfred Weber and Erarcha Garcia,

the leader of the Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament, they're hoping some

dinner dates will resolve some bad blood, and which city do you reckon is the happiest in Belgium?

You'll never believe it, Nick. I know I've seen the results, and I still don't believe it.

Alrighty, folks, Ian is off this week, so we've got Nick Vinnikor,

Politico's Chief Foreign Affairs correspondent, back with me this morning.

Nick, how has your workout?

Really painful, still feeling it today?

Well, I'm looking forward to seeing the gains, the buff board.

It's going to be out in time for summer.

That's why we're it's a podcast, and you can't see me.

You've got a great face for radio.

All right, for our first story today, the war in Iran,

it's giving leaders some flashbacks to Europe back in 2022.

That is when oil prices skyrocketed in the wake of the Russian forescale invasion of Ukraine,

and Europe was a dealt, a pretty hefty energy crisis, Nick.

Oil and gas prices were surging, then they are surging again,

despite the fact we've had four years to prepare for another crisis like this,

leaders are scrambling to respond.

Yeah, indeed, the Strait of Hormuz, which is where 20% of the world's oil is transported

through is basically closed due to Tehran's ongoing threats.

We've got oil and gas production at several sites in golf countries that are shut down or stopped.

Iranian drones and missiles targeting energy infrastructure across the region,

the whole industry is severely disrupted,

and this having a direct impact on energy prices here in Europe.

Yeah, and the price of a barrel of oil broke the $100 US dollar mark yesterday,

which is pretty huge, across Europe also the price of gas,

which was the main driver of that 2022 crisis.

That's surging above 60 euros per megawatt hour,

so it's not quite as high as back in 2022,

but higher than really any time since then,

and 67% of the EU's energy consumption still comes from fossil fuels,

and most of that is imported, so it's pretty exposed.

Absolutely, and it does remind us of those days,

and I remember what a political tinderbox it was back then,

and it sure is today as well.

Yeah, and you know, Nick, the biggest winner out of this

might just be Vladimir Putin, the Russian president,

because guess what?

Oil being driven up is actually giving him way more money

to continue waging war on Ukraine.

So this is really bad news for Europe,

which is supporting Ukraine in this fight.

Very bad news for Ukraine, obviously,

but great news for Putin.

Indeed, yeah, and I think this is really setting alarm bells

ringing around Europe and around the G7

about how to bring down these oil prices.

We had G7 countries indicating yesterday,

they are ready to release some emergency oil reserves.

That's a massive move.

You've also got French president Emmanuel Macron

saying that he intends to send ships,

naval vessels to the Straits of Hormuz

to escort commercial vessels.

These leaders are clearly treating this as a matter

of top priority for them.

Yeah, and the EU is also scrambling

at that Brussels level to try to do what it can.

That, of course, a lot of this stuff

is national competence, not EU competence.

But there are some things that Europe can do

so that EU can invoke solidarity measures.

That's like financial support

after severe natural disasters.

And they can do that to try to limit gas market volatility

and do joint purchases of gas.

The problem is that countries don't buy gas companies do.

Right, which limits their ability to really weigh on the price.

But what we're really talking about

is unlocking those oil reserves

that looks like something that could come across

if the conflict continues

and the straight remains shut off.

Yeah, and so our colleagues on the energy team,

they've been busy reporting out

on all sorts of elements of this over the past week, really.

And one of the things that they've reported

is that the commission is actually,

this is given some renewed energy, pardon the pun,

to end the reliance on fossil fuels

and replace that reliance with renewable energy.

But that comes as the EPP,

the European People's Party of Ursula von Delay

and the Commission President

is pushing her to slash green legislation.

Yeah, so this is a bit of an irony, right?

For the past year and a half,

essentially, since the 24 European Parliament election,

a dominant EPP has been leading this charge

against the green deal and kind of unwinding

a lot of that legislation.

And now we're in a situation

where EU countries are actually saying

we need renewable energy.

We need all that stuff.

So it's coming to the fore.

We had a story,

the new chair of the Parliament's Environment Committee

told our colleagues, the Avisa,

that the Iran War shows the green deal is fundamental

to EU security.

That's a new argument.

But it has become a headache for Brussels

because leaders are facing more and more anger

over high bills and sluggish economic growth.

It's not clear that simply regulating fossil fuels

is going to bring down the prices in the short term.

Yeah, so what we're expecting is

Ursula von Delay and the Commission President.

She's going to present two member countries

her plan to reel in energy prices

at the next European Council summit,

which is happening later this month.

So she's got some stuff up her sleeve.

And it's really important because we know

that high energy prices, high cost of living,

you know, we talked about this yesterday.

That is definitely driving the rise

of far left and far right parties

in various countries around the block.

And Victor Orban and Hungary,

he's been capitalizing on the war.

He's saying that now it's time for the EU

to reverse its plans to quit Russian oil and gas.

And he's putting pressure on Ukraine to repair

the Druzhba pipeline, which is carrying Russian oil

to Hungary and Slovakia.

Yeah, and there's even talk that the United States

might relieve sanctions on Russian oil exports.

The Trump administration said they would give

fuel makers in India temporary license

to buy sanctioned Russian oil

as a way to help bring down energy prices

that goes right back to the story we're talking about before

about how the war is a win for Putin at least for now.

This is going to be a huge one, Nick.

Let's keep on watching.

And I'm sure you'll be hearing more from us folks on this one.

Folks, our next story today is about a rocky relationship

that's on the mend because of some dinner dates.

Yeah, great story.

Lots of sparks, romance in this one.

It really is quite a good one.

One of our colleagues, Max Greer,

he has been looking into the fact that two

of Europe's big political heavy hitters,

Manfred Weber, who's the leader of the European People's Party,

and Erarcha Garcia, who's the chief of the Socialists and Democrats,

they have been on a dinner date to try to repair

what has been a pretty fractious relationship.

That's according to five people who were there on the night in February,

Weber and Garcia, along with 10 of their closest deputies.

Because when do you not bring 10 people for an intermittent dinner date?

I know. That was Valentine's Day for me, Mick.

So they went out for a meal at the Forster

Lionel Hotel in the center of Strasbourg last month.

That's right. And let's recall that, you know,

the relationship between these two parties used to be quite amicable.

They're really the sort of main coalition backing up the commission president.

And now one MEP described the relationship as being like two toxic

exes who can't talk to each other between these two

the biggest political groups in the parliament.

Yeah, and they've been fighting for basically a year

on everything from the EU's long-term budget

to the EPP voting on various pieces of legislation

with members of the far right, breaking what's known as the court on

sanitaire in EU speak. It's this idea that you shouldn't pass legislation

with the far right. So it's been pretty significantly

destroyed their relationship. Dates back actually, though, to 2019, which was when

a Garcia, along with the Liberals, told Weber that she wouldn't actually support

his bid to become the commission president. He thought he had

the European Commission presidency in the bag because he was the lead candidate

of the party that ended up doing the best in the EU election.

But he then was passed over in light of

Ursula von der Leyen coming onto the scene, who's now being the president.

This is her second term. So really, that was where that

trust disappeared and they've been struggling ever since then to get back on the same page.

Well, now you're just bringing up old stuff and we said we wouldn't do that.

And, you know, one of the things that we've been talking to people about is the fact that

there's a fear that if these two groups really are irreparably broken up,

then that could be something that leads to sort of a political accident, so to speak.

That's a phrase I've heard even just yesterday when I was talking

with various diplomats around town. You know, what could happen is there might be a motion of

no confidence. We know that there have already been four, but there might be another one.

And if the S&D, which is run by Garcia, decide that they're not going to support

von der Leyen of the EPP, well, she might be out.

It could happen. It could absolutely happen if the S&D swings against her.

Of course, that could happen and that would be an earthquake in political terms. But

we've seen a number of these motions of censure and things can always change.

Now, in a way, what's interesting is that both of these people recognize the relationship is

just not going back to the way it was before. Yeah, because trust is lost. I think it all,

it really does. I know we said we weren't going to rehash old relationship history,

but it really does go back to that 2019 situation. Yeah. And I would say from the S&D perspective,

this cooperation with the far right voting on certain files, that's the sort of original

send there that they can't forgive. We can't work with you if you're working with those parties.

Yeah. And I think they're going to keep working with those parties. We know there are some

contentious votes on migration coming up. And that's something that certainly the EPP has been

looking at the far right to vote through. Looking with a spark in their eye for a glint.

Mick, onto our last story, this one is pretty shocking. It's about happiness. The 2026 edition

of the National Happiness Survey is out. And guess what? Brussels is the happiest part of Belgium.

Can you believe it? I'm having a hard time, but that's what the words say on this piece paper.

Yeah. They say that residents of the capital scored 6.62 out of 10 on the happiness scale,

which to be fair doesn't seem that happy. It's pretty mediocre. So I'm wondering about the other

cities and how miserable they are. They must be really in bad shape. Absolutely. Well, apparently people

in Flanders scored higher than Molonya. No surprises there. It's all of that Flanders superiority

complex that we see. But look, depressingly, the scores have been falling. There's been a downward

trend since 2020. And there was like a slight bleep of improvement after COVID when people were

released from their homes, but now we're back down to gloomy times. That sounds about right.

What would you score yourself out of 10? 8.8. Oh my god, that's an outstanding. I'm going to go with

11 for me just to outdo you. Nick, before we go yesterday, we did a call out. We asked for

people to send through their local idioms from their various languages and places. And we got

some really, really good ones. So we had one listener called Eric. He told us that in Swedish,

there's a saying that goes, now the boiled pig is fried. Do you know that one? So I read that,

and I really wonder is that a real thing? Because I've never heard that in my life. But if Eric says so,

and you are a card carrying sweet, I am, and I speak it, and I know some of the expressions,

but not that one. I was trying to translate it in my head, not quite getting there. Well,

apparently it's when something has gone terribly wrong. It's the boiled pig is fried.

Frankly, it sounds like it's gone terribly right to me, because I would always rather

have fried pig than a boiled one. I know. I was like, I'm getting kind of hungry reading that,

but anyway. All right. Well, we've got another one. Nicola from Italy says that Italians have

adapted the Latin phrase, tastes are not to be debated. To go to Boston, honest, is Patanda.

For the Latin speakers among us, I know they're listening. They're absolutely listening. Surely

the linguists are on to us. Well, they've got a more graphic version of that, and listener,

my apologies. I'm going to have to censor what Nicola told us, because we want to keep our squeaky,

clean rating on this podcast. So know that there is a three-letter equivalent of the word I'm

about to use, but in Italy, they say there are those who like to go smashing their butts on cliffs.

I just have no colorment for that. There's actually a Russian equivalent to that thing.

It's for strokes for different folks. Exactly. And the Russian equivalent is,

and of course, it's, for taste and color, there are no friends.

Listen, well, loving your idioms, please do keep them coming. Our WhatsApp number is in the show,

notes. I am so, so keen to hear more, especially from some of the wider reaches of the EU. We

haven't heard anything from Malta. Malta, tell us what your idioms are. All right, our WhatsApp

numbers and the show notes, please do keep in touch with us. We love hearing from you. And if

you like the pod, tell a friend or two. I think they might like to hear about it, Nick. Have you

been telling your friends? Everyone, they've asked me to stop telling them. Have you been telling

your enemies? Anyone, anyone and everyone. I love that. Friends, enemies, mothers, brothers,

lovers. The word of mouth is the best way to get people to listen to our podcast. All right,

well, that's it from us, and we will speak to you tomorrow.

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