EVSN - Glaciers: Going, Going…Gone

It's the 365 days of astronomy podgang coming in three two one

Science isn't all knowing. Scientists don't know everything. Science is about

the pursuit of understanding and what we do as researchers is an incremental process

that hopefully notches our understanding forward bit by bit as we approach the truth.

Lately I've been hearing a lot of nonsense about how scientists are getting rich

off of con jobs like making up the dangers of coal, of air and water pollution

and of global warming. First of all, we are not rich. A manager at a fast food

restaurant here in southern Illinois earns more than associate professors, mid-career

folks at our local college. There are some hot shots out there who are the best in the world

and they are getting paid healthy salaries. Most of us, we're rocking used cars

old black tops and accidentally vintage clothing while relying on having roommates

or spouses to make life affordable. We are middle class. We are not getting rich

spreading this information for the laws. Most of us who work in academia are driven

by a need to try to understand new things, to find the missing pieces in our understanding

of history and our knowledge of the universe. And when we learn things,

to contradict generally accepted knowledge, we take a deep breath, roll up our sleeves

and try to figure out how to get our ideas out to the world. Because many of us

are driven to educate as much as we are driven to discover. For the past 70 years,

humanity has seen research into the effects of environmental pollution on life,

leveraged into legislation. Our understanding that chloroflora carbons trigger

destruction of the Earth's ozone layer that in turn causes cancers has led to laws

that change the contents of everything from hairspray to air conditioning units.

And we're seeing reductions in the hole in the ozone layer now. Our understanding

that the pesticide DDT is a carcinogen that also causes birds' eggs to thin

led to international restrictions on its use, restrictions that have allowed bird species

like the American condor to come back from the brink of extinction.

I could keep going. Removal of lead from gasoline led to lower crime rates.

That's my favorite factoid. I could keep going, but I won't.

Because it's hard to see the point right now. Last week, a new executive order

removed vast swaths of our nation's environmental protection regulations.

And projects were incentivized to use energy from coal burning power plants

instead of lower cost renewable energy. I'm not sure why anyone would want to go

back to the days when city skylines are hidden by yellow layers of smog.

But here we are. I always imagined our dystopian future would at least have clean air.

I was not creative enough. And while this was happening, research

article after research article came out discussing melting glaciers and climate

change. The climate change articles got set aside for a future

episode, but I did pull out the glacier news to discuss today.

Our world is changing. It is changing because of us.

In today's closer look, we learn about glacial surges on land and

the effects on the sea and notice the rash of tourists showing up to say goodbye

to the world's remaining glaciers before it becomes too late.

We also look at volcanoes because sometimes you need fiery molten goodness to go

with your ice. I'm Dr. Pamela Gay, a senior scientist at the

Planetary Science Institute. And you are watching Escape

Velocity Space News, an independent science news show funded by you,

our donors through patreon.com slash CosmoQuestX.

I need to start this story with a disclaimer. Never trust Evolcano.

You may think there is no chance it is about to erupt.

You may even think it is dormant. Volcanoes don't care what you think.

If the pressure inside gets high enough, they are going to blow.

There are knowledgeable volcanologists who risk their lives to place

instruments and collect samples from erupting volcanoes.

They are made of the same stuff as tornado chasers, deep water

explorers and astronauts. And most of the time they stay safe

thanks to their training. Unless you are a volcanologist,

do not explore active volcanoes. Case in point.

On February 13th, roughly a dozen hikers were climbing in the

Caldera of the Pitendila fornays when a fissure opened up

a few meters in front of them and began fountaining lava.

Initially they took phone video, but when rocks started getting

hurled into the air and the fountains grew, they took off running.

Ultimately three climbers slightly injured, had to be rescued

by helicopter. And everyone had to get themselves to safety,

but they did have the help of local law enforcement.

This eruption was not predicted. It is ongoing.

And it's the second eruption so far this year.

And it's February. Folks do not trust volcanoes,

especially active volcanoes. This particular volcano,

located on Reunion Island, is one of the most active in the

world. Its isolated nature and regular eruptions make it a

perfect target for researchers trying to predict the will

it wanted of volcanic activity. While some volcanoes are

pretty good at telegraphing their intentions through expansion,

tilting of the landscape, and specific kinds of earthquakes

that are linked to underground lava flows.

Not every prediction leads to an eruption and these false

positives can lead to significant economic losses when

tourists avoid visiting or people evacuate out of an abundance

of caution. Failure predict eruptions, as happened last

Friday, can cost people their lives, which luckily

didn't happen on Friday. Since 2014, researchers have been

testing a new seismic signal called a jerk signal.

These long wavelength transient signals come from magma

intrusions that cause horizontal ground motions.

They're actually measuring the acceleration of the acceleration,

which mathematically is called a jerk. Between 2014 and

2023, researchers issued alerts as much as eight and a

half hours in advance of 92% or 22 of the island's 24 volcanic

eruptions. It also predicted two eruptions that didn't

happen, but both these false predictions were linked to actual

magma intrusions and what are called aborted eruptions.

This is amazing news, but we don't know if the plumbing of

that one particular volcano allows this method to work,

while the unique and different and changing plumbing of

other volcanoes will foil this method. These results are

published in nature communications with lead author,

Francois Boudelsel. In 2026, this team will deploy needed

equipment at Mount Etna to see if they can replicate their

work. Another possible target for this kind of study is the

kill away of volcano in Hawaii. The Hawaiian islands are

the result of hot spots in the Earth extending tongues of

magma up through the moving continental plates. As the

plates move along, new volcanoes form as old ones fade away.

And when I said spots, I said that on purpose. The

islands have two different kinds of lava chemistries and some

research hints at two spots being responsible for this

difference. The currently most active of these volcanoes is

kill away out on the big island, which has had sustained

activity since 1983. Famous for its lava fountains and

amazing lava lake, this volcano was associated with a

magnitude 6.9 earthquake on May 4, 2018. This quake occurred

the day after the Loa Kuna eruption, which opened 24

fissures near and in numerous subdivisions and threatened

the Penangia thermal venture. This quake didn't trigger

significant damage, but it did have a weird side effect on

the landscape. Specifically, the landscape stopped moving.

Prior to the quake, study fault creep was observed with the

volcanic pile meets the underlying oceanic crust. The

sudden release from this large earthquake could have

released so much stress that it will take time for

pressures to rebuild to the point that slow slip events are

seen again. This quiet period is called a stress shadow.

According to Ingrid Johansson, quote, assuming study

loading from fault creep, we calculate that the slow

slip fault regions could be of stress shadow for 56 years

plus or minus three years. End quote. Johansson is first

author of a new study in the bulletin of the size

ological society of America. This particular fault is known

to regularly erupt and was responsible for a 7.7 magnitude

earthquake in 1975 and a devastating 7.9 magnitude

earthquake in 1868, which also triggered a tsunami.

The volcanic islands like Hawaii, reunion and so many

others always have this potential for the triple

assault of eruptions, earthquakes and tsunamis for when

you need the earth fire and water to all record a.

In general, massive quakes are associated with the build

up of stress, where a crustal plate abuts against either

another plate or volcanic pile that limits its motion.

In some places, we can see one part of a fault

steadily move while another part remains stock until a big

quake releases all the tension. In other places, we see

different parts of a fault release at different times.

In general, we know that a certain amount of motion is

going to need to happen at some point in time because

surrounding regions have already moved. And once

that big one happens, we know we are going to have a few

decades or maybe centuries before the pressure

builds back up. At least that's how it's supposed to work.

But the conchocked up peninsula had an unexpectedly

large 8.8 to 8.9 magnitude earthquake last July.

It occurred within 40 miles of the center of the

1952 magnitude nine quake that also triggered a trans

oceanic tsunami. This quake was associated with a

9 to 12 meter slip, an amount as much as double what was

believed to have built up along the fault line.

A new study in the journal seismica with first

author Yugi Yagi explains this quake may have resulted

both from new stress in the system, as well as residual

strain created when the 1952 quake experienced dynamic

overshoot. Or what I would call backlash if it was

a geared system, essentially the fault rebounded and

got locked in place with stress already there waiting to be

released. This means that sometimes that stress

releasing quake can also be a stress causing quake.

Figuring out volcanoes is weirdly going to be a lot

easier than sorting earthquakes. And we have a long

way to go before we're successful at either of these

problems. From Earth to Fire, we now turn to ice.

Stay tuned for an update on the Earth's glaciers.

There is something almost magical about hiking on a hot

summer's day, and seeing ice covered mountains off in the

distance. I was lucky enough to get the climb up to the

base of a glacier when I was younger back in 1989, and

I'll never forget that experience above the tree line.

According to the UN Environment Program, between

2020, that glacier I saw shrank by 20 to 25%. The ice I saw

on the retreating tongue is long gone, and what I

experienced is no longer an option for adventurous climbers.

All around the world, we're seeing ice cover shrank,

and a new study in nature climate change with lead

author Emanuel Salim looks at how humans are reacting

to this loss. According to anthropologist

researcher Semini Hal, quote, most people on Earth will

never be able to visit a glacier, and that fact becomes

truer every day as they disappear. But the desire is

there to be near these giant bodies of ice is a powerful

experience, because they are unique natural wonders that move,

creek, whisper, and invite reflection. For those who live

near glaciers, losing the marks and end to cultural

forms and an environment that have been millennia in the

making. End quote. Roughly 14 million people a year

visit glaciers. A number that is increasing as FOMO becomes

more and more of a concern. Unfortunately, this kind of

ecotourism can put stress on the very systems. Folks are

afraid will disappear. This study suggests the challenge

is not only how to witness the loss of glaciers,

but how to ensure that grief, awareness, and tourism do

not accelerate the very forces driving their

disappearance. Trying to figure out how to balance raising

awareness without scaring people too much or triggering

actions that do more harm than good is one heck of a

challenge. Humans are as complex as the climate,

and in some ways they are even more unpredictable. If you

have a chance to visit a glacier because you're already

near it, take that opportunity. But don't go out of your

way. As Hal points out, quote, glacier tourism that

facilitates access to these majestic sites can often be

part of the fossil economy problem that is hastening glaciers

demise. End quote. Melting glaciers are one and

most dangerous phenomena on our planet. As they melt

water can build up in lakes that eventually break free, sending a

surge of water down rivers and valleys. In these narrow

corridors, humans may have no easy path to high ground,

or insufficient warning to get there. In October

2023, this kind of devastating flood tore through

Gwati, India, leaving more than 100 people dead or

missing. Communities weren't just flooded.

They were also buried in mud. In Alaska, recurring

outbursts from the Mendenhall glacier have led

a nearby valley to be named Suicide Basin.

And homes and other structures continue to fall prey to

this glacier's surges. As more and more glaciers

experience accelerated melting, researchers are looking

for ways to predict these kinds of floods and

the rapid motion associated with glacial surges.

With sufficient warning, towns can move and infrastructure can be

short up against future disaster. But long term

planning requires pulling apart changes that occur due to

seasonal variation as well as long term variations.

Researchers have to be able to ask,

is observed melt in movement, a sign of spring,

or assign the glacier is approaching a new tipping point?

In a new paper in Nature Communications, researchers led by

Taylor Smith apply a new math technique

floating to multipliers, to glacial systems around

the world and demonstrate that glaciers' behavior

can be predicted by measuring their velocity over time

and looking for changes and how each cycle can be described.

The math on this is complex with eigenvalues punctuating

the analysis as plots are analyzed for periodicities.

Ultimately, I and astrophysicist

don't need to understand that math. What I and you

need to know is this one kind of measurement

velocity that can be obtained with GPS or satellites

when acquired for multiple points along a glacier

is sufficient to identify systems that are becoming unstable.

A lot more work is needed to understand time scales

and accuracy of the predictions. But this is an important start.

As we try to predict how glaciers and i-sheets

will evolve over time, it is important to understand

that for the foreseeable future there will always be

things we miss or fail to account for as our world changes.

And some of the things that we're seeing are just plain

chaotic. For instance, really weird dynamics are observed

in the Greenland ice sheet. Ice penetrating radar has

made out large structures that look like the kinds of chaotic plumes

you'd expect to find in a lava lamp.

Intuition tells us ice should be solid and not move

like a solid should not move. But our intuition is

actually really bad at doing science.

After years of not being able to explain these weird features,

a team led by Robert Law realized that rock inside the earth

can't convect very slowly, like the

contents of a lava lamp. And ice is softer than rock.

As law explains, quote,

finding that thermal convection can happen within an ice sheet

goes slightly against our intuition and expectations.

Ice is at least a million times softer than the earth's mantle

though. So the physics just work out.

It's like an exciting freak of nature, end quote.

For better or worse, convection is a somewhat chaotic process.

But understanding it is there, is the first step to

understanding how to include it into predictions about ice melt.

And as law points out, quote,

Greenland and its nature is truly special.

The ice sheet there is over 1,000 years old.

And it's the only ice sheet on earth to have a culture

and permanent population at its margins.

The more we learn about the hidden processes inside the ice,

the better prepared will be for the changes coming to coastlines

around the world.

End quote.

The world is changing.

Science will help us survive those changes.

But not every coastal or ice fronting community will make it.

We will have to move.

We do have to prepare.

I have to admit, I prefer the unpredictable fiery destruction

of lava to that of melting ice.

At this point, we would normally throw to Eric Mattis and rocket news.

But with everything going on from crew 12th to Artemis 2

and all the other new rockets proving themselves,

we're working on a special rockets episode.

For now, let's return to volcanoes.

I have a cool piece of news from Jupiter's Moon Eye,

which reminds us that the same physics here is at play across the universe.

It's just the details that change.

We often see relationships between volcanoes here on earth

where linkages in the magma plumbing can cause multiple eruptions to trigger one another.

Io takes this idea and erupts with it.

On December 27th, 2024, the Juno mission

made one of its closest approaches to Io,

and took infrared images of Io that revealed hot spots associated with active volcanism.

Samultaneous eruptions sprawled across 40,400 square miles or 65,000 square kilometers,

implying that this suite of hot spots are somehow all linked through a previously unknown web of magma tunnels.

The amount of energy released is estimated at 140 to 260 terawatts.

For comparison, Mount Sid Helen's 1980 eruption was 52 terawatts.

Io is a moon that is just over 2,000 miles in diameter.

Boston to San Diego is 3,000 miles.

That is a tremendous amount of energy to come from one small rock.

And that is awesome.

And that is all for now.

Good night everyone.

And remember to go look up.

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You make this show possible.

Escape Velocity Space News is executive produced and written

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Until next time, let the stars guide your curiosity.