FEAST: Arizona Wildcats Hunting Buffaloes! Koa Peat to DOMINATE on Interior vs Colorado

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Arizona's final regular season game is upon us, and the fellows will finish out strong,

hunting down the buffaloes.

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Today on the show, I'll analyze the Colorado roster, give you guys the breakdown of who

you need to know and what you need to know about the buffs, where Arizona must watch out,

where the wildcats will pounce on the buffs, give the keys to the game and of course my prediction.

So let's dive right in Arizona's 28 and 2 and Colorado sits at 17 and 13.

So clearly there's disparity of level.

But make no mistake, the buffs do have talent and tabboil had coached the buffs has led

a lot of upsets of unsuspecting teams wandering into boulder and falling victim to a very

well coached team that has unsuspecting talent.

Arizona, I want to say this is not like, oh, Arizona's going to lose, that's not that that's

not the takeaway.

In fact, I think they will win and I think they should win easily.

Arizona has been sharp in these type of games in the games that relative to comparison

of like, oh, it's Kansas, it's Iowa State, it's Houston.

This is a snooze fest type of game in comparison to those, but the big 12 is different and they're

not a bad team.

Like the buffs may not be at the top of the big 12 and the real matter of the fact is is

like they belong in the big 12 and that means they're a good basketball team.

And Arizona, I think it becomes trickier mentally because they've locked up the conference

and it also adds this element of fun for Colorado of, oh, we're playing a big time game

with nothing to lose at home, can spoil, play spoiler as well as just have a signature

win.

So they got nothing to lose.

I think there is an element of the mental side favors the psychology of basketball favors

Colorado in this one.

But there's seven and 10 conference, however, they won three of the last four and is a team

that when I watch them, I say, okay, they play good basketball, but they're under talented.

And when I say under talented, I mean it relative to the big 12 and Arizona is over talented,

meaning that they are the most talented team in the big 12.

They are the best team in the country by my eyes.

And Colorado is playing better, but their formula is not one that really gives trouble

to Arizona.

And that stuff matters when you're trying to spring up sets formula of how you win matters

a lot.

And they're better on offense than they are in defense by a wide margin.

Most good teams that score basketball play Arizona and they struggle to score basketball.

That there's no quits since there.

Arizona doesn't struggle to score and they score reproducibly inside and Colorado small.

Like that's the that's the matter of the fact.

And they're better on offense by a wide margin than they are in defense.

They have not beaten a good team all year and they play at a lukewarm pace.

And a big a big 12 good team, I want to put that out.

So like stylistics are understood by this conference.

And they play at a low ish tempo that, you know, it doesn't go on either extreme that

really worries Arizona.

So to me, Arizona is not going to be troubled by Colorado's analytical profile.

And my eyes like to match up to their two point heavy meaning that they rely on penetration

because they're not really like a big team, but they don't shoot it overly well from three.

They're not bad, but they're not like, wow, they shoot 39% type of team.

And then the other issue is they don't rebound overly well if you're Colorado.

You got to have a way to match up with Arizona on the glass if you're not going to shoot

them out of the gym.

And most teams try to shoot Arizona to the gym fail.

And most teams that try to match up wait on wait and try to rebound Arizona also fail.

But that recipe at least gives you a better chance.

And defensively, I think this is where the death comes for Colorado.

Defensively, they do not force turnovers and they don't protect the room.

And Arizona hasn't really been prone to turnovers anyway.

But if you don't protect the rim against Arizona, you're in trouble.

We know that well as Arizona people watching this.

And I really can't believe this is, you know, the 31st game of the season.

And you know, I give my prediction at the very start of the year.

And I thought it was crazy.

Like if they beat Florida, I think they'll go undefeated in non-conference.

And you know, have a chance to be 20 and 0, 18 and 2.

And all that stuff happened.

But that feels like it was just yesterday.

And they were 23 and 0.

And then the doors fell off and it's like, oh, Jesus team, you know, they're out

already.

We just go a pizza.

Actually, they're better right now than they were when they were 23 and 0.

And he's not quite back.

And that leads me to a point in a moment.

But I'm going to start on Colorado's personal.

I just wanted to reflect on that because I'm still tripped up that this season's,

you know, the regular season's wrapping up.

There's still a lot of basketball to be played for Arizona.

But it is, it's crazy to think about.

And it's a great team.

So I'm cherishing it.

You guys should cherish it as well.

They run a lot of their off and speaking Colorado through their point guard,

Isaiah Johnson, who is very good.

He's a freshman.

He's liquid.

He's quick.

And he's thin.

He scores 17 per game.

And he dishes out three assists per game as a freshman.

And that's going to matter in this game.

I think it's hard for a freshman to physically battle against Arizona.

And we've seen this very few star players have played well against Arizona.

AJ has been notoriously inefficient against Arizona as compared to the rest of the conference.

You've seen PJ Haggerty struggle mode.

Odom struggled.

I could go on there and Peterson struggled.

As we've seen, very few star players have a good day.

And he's joined by another star guard, you know, star ring guard, I should say, in a

diminutive guard, though, in Barrington, Hargrist, who leads the team and assists.

It's worse 14 per game second than the team.

So the thing about Colorado is they're small and they're and they're slender.

And those type of teams, you really expect them to double.

They're going to probably play zone.

They're probably going to pressure.

I just don't think they have the heft.

Because front court has skill, deck and ranchage are both, they're both like solid, slender,

three, four guys that kind of, when I say three, four, I'm speaking of small forward,

power forward that score around 12 points, grab six rebounds, but both are more wings than

bigs.

And they do plan the wings and they have height.

But Arizona's got just this strength to them at every position.

And I have a hard time imagining Colorado is able to compete in a physical match up

here.

And we've seen Arizona dominate far bigger lineup from the glass.

And unsurprisingly, I dug into this once I made these notes, unsurprisingly, Colorado

performs very poorly on the glass.

They're 14th and rebounds in the conference.

And if you go into like their defensive rebound rate, it's not very good.

And their defense is alarmingly poor, particularly in conference play.

They rank 300 second in defensive rating per basketball reference.

So in other words, Arizona should feast on the interior and have a super comfortable

game plan of let's establish the ball.

And I'm namely, I'm very eager to see what co-opete brings to the table in this one and

see his level of assertiveness and his, see if his explosion, his legs and his endurance

grow in this game.

I want a very clear cut effort from the Arizona Wildcats to be featuring co-opete as this

is the last layer of the equation in preparations to make a deep run.

You need your horses really rep prepped and ready to run.

And co-opete is a thoroughbred to continue that analogy.

He's the type of guy who can do spectacular things, limit Joshua Jefferson and all American

to two to 17 shooting defensively, but they will need a day where they need his offense

from 17 feet in.

And so far, he's looked solid but unspectacular.

I want to see a concerted effort to make him feel more comfortable and show off his athletic

prowess and be physical and do that.

Well, talk co-opete, the keys to the game, all ahead next on Lockdown Wildcats.

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So here are the keys to the game.

Code Pete's going to be involved, but I'll start with team wide ones.

Arizona should dominate the glass.

So I'm going to say win the rebounds by 12 or more and likely 15 plus.

I really think this is going to be a demolition on the glass.

And Arizona should win this game by 15 or so.

And therefore the way they do that is get more possessions and get more easy shots.

So rebounds matter.

And then I'm going to talk about one I popularized earlier in this season where it was paint

oriented points pop and I think this is a 60 pop game, meaning that I think Arizona

is going to live in the paint.

I just don't think Colorado will be able to keep Arizona the paint unless they commit

so heavily to doubling.

And if Arizona handles doubling like they have recently, you'll get Anthony Delor.

So a couple extra threes buries a couple spot ups, Aristotle's back.

And I'd also like to see him continue to get his feet wet and get back in the rotation

and get his minutes going to see look very good in the previous game.

So unless they double extremely hard, I think Arizona should dominate and score 60 points

in the paint 60 points in the paint plus free throws made a K pop paint oriented points.

Now it's good to co and co and needs to be the leading figure in the attack.

And get his legs specifically into it because against Iowa state, you saw him miss a couple

shots.

He's used to making miss a dunk or instead of dunking it, shoot a layup.

You saw him miss a couple turn rounds where he's elevation is super key against Kansas.

You saw his passing and his prowess, his presence on the court really, really impact early.

But you didn't see him have it throughout the entirety of the game.

You saw it in like four minutes surges.

I think it's a game where you play co extended stretches and you say, okay, we want you to

score 20 points in this game and make the right rates.

Don't force things, but it's going to be in your hands.

So here are my keys.

I want co to have a game where he shoots at least 12 plus times and at least eight times

in the first half.

And hopefully he gets the free throw line a lot and kind of establishes a rhythm from

the line where he went for a four in his first game and he missed a couple early.

And I think that seeing the ball go through is important for guys missed time, but knows

how valuable he is.

The last key I'll give as a team wide one would be that make their make their two guards

Hargris and Johnson isolation scores and not guys that contribute to scoring via their

assist totals.

Both these guys can score absolutely, but how are they going to score against car chain

cup against Bradley?

Like we've seen all Americans really struggle with both those guys.

We've seen all Americans get into the teeth, the defense, say, oh, you know what?

I don't want to go in there when Mo crevasses down there and they shoot a mid range where

everyone when Mo crevasses in the court shoots 32.9% from anything outside five feet on

two pointers.

Like Arizona's got a very, very clear cut, disciplined game plan of when he's on the court, he is going

to protect the room.

He is the Ryan Calc winner of Creighton the past five years of college basketball today.

He puts his arms up near the basket, tries to avoid foul trouble and makes you change

your shot.

He shoots it near him, he'll block it, but his impact is not in the numbers of blocks.

It's not in the numbers of steals, even though those are good.

It's in the deterrence of easy shots.

And so these guys like to get downhill, stay in front of him, make him shoot over the

length and size of the defense and make them shoot as opposed to helping off the wings

and giving up open threes.

That's the only way that I see Colorado hanging around.

It's a similar formula to what I talked about against Kingston Flemmings.

It was make Kingston Flemmings be a star and beat Arizona with tough shots.

He would six to 17 and three of those makes right at the end of the game when Arizona

was nursing a lead and play prevent defense.

He's a great player.

Anderson was inefficient against Arizona.

He's a great player.

Jefferson to a 17, AJ struggled mildly, Darren, like those are five guys, probably five

of the best 10 players in the conference in terms of talent.

And they just don't score.

So take away the easy bucket from the ancillary pieces and make the stars be the stars.

I've said this formula numerous times.

So maybe I'm not original, you sue me for that.

But I'll tell you what, it's worked.

And so Arizona should not deviate from their game plan.

So if you want numbers to limit those two who combine for about seven assists per game

to seven assists or fewer and fewer than 30 points between them, which is about what

they average.

If they do not exceed their average, they will not beat Arizona.

And I'll be curious to see if Arizona can get 30 plus points off of points off of turnovers

combined with second chance points.

So we talked about the analytical profile of Colorado a little bit.

We talked about the analytical profile of the four best teams in college basketball earlier

this week.

If you missed it, check it out as a short video where I talked about there are four teams

that are better than the rest and they all do the same thing.

It's Arizona.

It's Duke.

It's Michigan.

It's Florida.

And all of them are top four teams defensively and what they do well defensively is they take

away the rim and what they do offensively very well, even though they go about it slightly

differently.

All of them rebound the ball very well.

So what they do is they get more shot chances for themselves Arizona in their case shoots

a ton of them from point Blake range has this Florida.

And they get more chances, even if they do make a lot of them, which they do from point

Blake range, even if they do miss, they get a second chance.

So the other way to get extra possessions is forced turnovers Arizona is not prolific

of forcing turnovers, but they do not sacrifice to try to force them.

They don't overextend.

They get them by being stout.

And if they can get points off of turnovers, easy baskets, they're almost unbeatable because

as they're getting easy baskets, you're having to work so, so hard to try to score against

Arizona.

And even when you do get back on defense and stop them from getting easy baskets, they

get second chances.

So extra possessions leading to points.

I want to see 30 points from Arizona combined from points off of turnovers and second chance

points.

Arizona does that.

They'll end by 20.

And see, I'm not saying just keys to it.

I'm saying keys to win by the margin at which Arizona can win and maybe should win coming

up next.

I'll give you the way I see this game going, the game script, the matchups I see happening

as well as of course, my score prediction for the final game of the regular season.

All that and more next on locked on wild cats.

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Welcome back to locked on wild cats leave to lean with you here.

So my prediction for this game is is that Arizona sees his control and it's a game where

they come out more sharply than maybe some of us anticipate.

You may think okay Arizona's got it in the bag, they won the conference, they don't care

about this game.

They just want to get out of it healthily.

All that could be true mentally, like I said, psychology does play a part.

But what I will tell you is I think that Tommy Lloyd's got this team like like robots ready

to go for each and every individual game.

And I see them coming out strongly and dominating on the interior.

My prediction defensively in terms of matchups is they see Bradley guard Hargrist on the point

guard who's the better distributor between he and Johnson.

And then I think you see a matchup of Yvonne and Burry's both chair time on Johnson.

I think Dak and Ranchitch draw Pete and Yvonne.

So I'd say mostly Burry's on on Johnson as a and he might see some Bradley in there.

That's the beauty of Arizona.

They they're very interchangeable despite, you know, having enormous size.

That's something that's very rare.

And then I think Mokrivas cleans up on the interior as a health defender and he will guard

and dare others to score.

I see this game as a very intentional Arizona game, meaning it'll be sharp, but won't,

but it won't be, you know, as instinctive.

I think it's going to be a we're going to get the ball to co-peat.

We'll react to how they score, but we want co-peat to Wayne Aristotle getting their buckets

and their legs under them.

Because I say that, I think Pete will lead the way for Arizona.

I haven't said that in a while.

It feels good to talk about co-oping the leading score of a game.

I got him scoring 17 points and seven rebounds and ideally a couple assists as well.

I think that's an element of Pete that we we did not see.

And now when he comes back, it was clear as day and he only recognized what you lost

when it's finally back.

And and co-peat showed up and threw passes to Mokrivas makes the life easier.

He's a secondary facilitator.

He can defend against the best of the best.

And I think he just makes the game easier for everyone.

So what I think happens is Pete is the focal point of the offense.

17, seven and five is going to be my prediction.

And I think he'll make life easy.

I think Burries is going to have some easy baskets attacking closeouts and getting out

in transition because he is a blur in transition.

And I see Johnson for Colorado scoring inefficiently.

I'll be curious to watch him.

There's been rumors of who's going to replace Arizona's back where that's a guy that's picked

up steam and some certain buzz.

It's an interesting idea.

I think there's tons of really good guards.

And so it's worth watching all these guys because who wouldn't want to play for a team

like Tommy Lloyds and the way that they play egalitarian basketball physical well distributed

of the ball and also just like very well-rounded basketball.

You're going to play defense.

You're going to pass the ball.

You're going to shoot open shots.

You can play quickly if you'd like to.

You can execute if you want to.

And I think he and Hargrist will probably score around their 30.

I think it'll be inefficient though.

And more importantly, it's going to be a ranchage and deck aren't going to take over

the game.

And those are the games in which Colorado has better success when their distribution of

the two guards leads to success from their wings.

So with all that said, I've got Arizona winning by 15.

I've got 84, 69, the final score Arizona going 29 and two in the regular season.

Let me know your game ball, the score and the game all who's the winning team's best

player.

So in this case, likely Arizona's best player.

I'll give a shout out in the postcast and speaking of postcast, that'll be the next

show.

I will break it down for you guys live after the game.

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So if you love chaos, you love drama, tune in for that one.

Thank you guys for listening.

It's always a pleasure.

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