Fed Seen Pausing Later as PPI, Oil Get Early Focus

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with

a recap of recent news and look at what's ahead.

I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, March 18th.

The Federal Reserve's rate decision and fresh inflation news await investors today will

market focus keeps being magnetized by activities thousands of miles away in the Middle East.

There was no progress Tuesday getting the critical straight-of-war moves reopened, and Israel

announced its strikes had killed two key leaders of Iran.

These deaths could embolden Iran's hardline military leadership the New York Times reported.

Additionally, an oil tanker was hit by a projectile Tuesday in the UAE, reinforcing danger

to shipping in the region.

Iran also launched attacks against UAE energy and transport infrastructure CNBC reported.

This raises concerns about future production, not just product now trapped on ships.

Crude oil and the S&P 500 continue to display a strong inverse correlation.

Time is the enemy here, said Lizanne Saunders, chief investment strategist at the Schwab Center

for Financial Research.

The longer this drags out, the more acute the pain points become.

Back home, the Fed's decision at 2 p.m. eastern time isn't in question.

Analysts widely expect the second straight rate pause, keeping the target range between

3.5 percent and 3.75 percent as policymakers wearily watch sticky inflation data even

amid slowing job gains.

The Fed will likely focus on its inflation mandate given rising oil prices.

However, potentially slower growth will put it in a tough position if rising inflation

is accompanied by a higher unemployment rate, said Cooper Howard, head of fixed income

research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Any intrigue likely concerns the central bank's economic projections and its dot plot of

future rates.

The meeting could also offer clarity on Chairman Jerome Powell's plans, assuming his term

ends on time in May.

Don't expect much from the Fed meeting, but expect Powell will be asked about whether

he's likely to stay on as governor when he leaves the chairpost, Saunders said.

As of late Tuesday, the CME Fed Watch tool showed virtually no chance of a cut at today's

Fed meeting and little chance of a cut before September.

That's the first month where chances approach 50 percent.

Today brings a new set of Fed economic projections and a look at the possible rate path all released

along with the Fed's decision.

In the last dot plot of rates issued in December, Fed policymakers predicted a single rate

cut this year.

Any change there, either to no change or even a possible rise, would be notable today.

Or would any major changes to the Fed's projections for 2026 gross domestic product

or GDP or inflation, both of which could ultimately be affected by the war.

Oil might have to stay elevated for more than a single Fed meeting before policymakers

start incorporating its impact into longer term inflation expectations.

The Fed's last projection was for a 2.4 percent annual rise in 2026 personal consumption expenditures

or PCE prices, the central bank's favorite inflation metric.

The last core PCE figure, which subtracts volatile food and energy prices, was 3.1 percent annually

in January up from 3 percent in December.

That means PCE prices were moving the opposite direction of the Fed's 2 percent goal even

before the war began.

However, there have been some hopeful signs that housing costs may be slowing.

At the same time, jobs growth fell by 92,000 in February, the government said.

This puts the Fed in a pickle having to choose between addressing rising prices and weak

jobs growth.

That's why today's Fed unemployment projection might get special attention, last time

out, the Fed pegged US 2026 unemployment at 4.4 percent.

One projection up sharply in December was US GDP growth, which the Fed raised to 2.3 percent

in 2026 from its previous 1.8 percent.

While there aren't any numbers yet for the current quarter, the recent drop in the

government's estimate for 4.4 GDP to just 0.7 percent doesn't vote too well.

The European Central Bank, or ECB, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, or B.O.J.,

also meet this week, with all three expected to keep policy unchanged.

All central banks meet this week and made growing risk of stagflation, said Michelle

Ghibli, Director of International Equity Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for

Financial Research.

There is a non-linear impact of energy supply disruption.

Each day of disruption is multiple days before things return to normal.

Most of the eight central banks that meet this week are on hold for now.

The B.O.J. decision is late tonight, and the ECB comes tomorrow morning, US time.

Data to watch before the Fed decision includes today's February producer price index or

PPI, though the report was compiled last month and won't reflect any war-related price

impacts.

It's been an interesting metric lately, showing signs of hotter costs even before oil

spiked.

PPI, due at 8.30 a.m. eastern time, is expected to rise 0.4% for the core reading, excluding

food and energy, down from January's surprising 0.8% monthly gain.

Whole-sale prices sometimes can be a canary in the coal mine for consumer prices, indicating

higher costs at the wholesale level that might eventually get passed along to customers.

Another data point growing in importance is today's US government crude oil inventory's

reports due early afternoon.

There was a 3.82 million barrel increase the prior week, though this time of year often

sees winter inventory building end and spring demand jump.

Inventories remain 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Meanwhile, demand is up.

Over the past four weeks, the amount of motor gasoline products supplied averaged 8.8

million barrels a day up by 0.8% from the same period last year.

Jet fuel products supplied was up 7.3% compared with the same four-week period last year.

These numbers are worth checking today for updates considering the war situation.

Lululemon became the latest retailer to report Tuesday, and it initially drew back 2% in

post-market trading, despite beating consensus earnings expectations.

Its guidance was below consensus, probably bringing pressure.

The chip giant micron reports after today's close.

Shares have surged along with the rest of the memory segment this year amid booming data

centered demand and product shortages that raised prices.

Investors might want to check what micron has to say about the supply situation.

Last time out, micron easily beat analysts, quarterly expectations, while forecasting quarterly

revenue of $18.7 billion.

The projected earnings per share of about $8.42 on an adjusted basis.

Shares of micron and other memory companies, including Western Digital, muscled their way

to gains Tuesday ahead of micron's report, though strength didn't pick up the entire chip

market.

Nvidia, Intel, and Broadcom all finished in the red.

Nvidia's GTC conference hasn't changed things for a stock that has been stuck in the mud

since last October, despite upbeat product announcements, concerned centers on Nvidia's

Sky High margins and how they can be maintained amid growing competition.

Tuesday saw markets stay resilient, though neither the S&P 500 index nor the NASDAQ 100

could maintain intraday highs with crude oil rising nearly 3%.

Tuesday's rally embraced 8 of 11 S&P 500 sectors following Monday's green across the

board session, energy soared to the top of the scorecard Tuesday, followed by consumer

discretionary communication services, financials, and industrials.

Cyclical stocks that perform well in a strong economy generally did well, though some of

that could be predicated on hopes of a near-term end to the conflict.

From a technical angle, major indexes continued to show resilience after flirting with or falling

below key support late last week at 200 day moving averages.

Those averages are 22,208 for the NASDAQ composite and 6,612 for the S&P 500 index.

Neither as an arrange of the respective 100 day moving averages, a level near 6,840 for

the S&P 500 index.

The 100 day average formed a long-term support area and now represents resistance.

In individual trading Tuesday, Delta Airlines climbed more than 6% after saying it sees

first quarter revenue growth in the high single digits.

Its previous guidance was for revenue to be up 5-7%.

The airline sector as a whole got a lift Tuesday despite rising oil prices as several

airlines besides Delta also touted strong first quarter travel demand briefing.com noted.

Lift added nearly 4% after announcing it plans to make rides smarter and more efficient

through agentic AI and use Nvidia AI to enhance its machine learning systems.

Uber accelerated as well with 5% gains touting its own deal with Nvidia to expand their

autonomous vehicle partnership.

And Eli Lilly dropped nearly 6% after getting downgraded by HSBC to reduce from hold.

The firm thinks expectations for obesity's total addressable market are elevated that

over $150 billion.

The market is likely to be $80 billion to $120 billion by 2032 and price competition

is likely to be significant the analyst told investors in a research note.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 46.85 points Tuesday or 0.10% to 46,993.26.

The S&P 500 and DAX jumped 16.71 points or 0.25% to 6716.09 and the NASDAQ composite gained

105.35 points or 0.47% to 22479.53.

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