FINAL FOUR: Can Tom Izzo’s Spartans BEAT the ODDS? Why Jeremy Fears is the key to Michigan State's run

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Jeremy fears his arguably the most important player on his team.

Not just in the big tent, but the whole country.

It's not just me saying it.

No, there's some actual numbers behind this too.

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The biggest reason you think Michigan State can go far in March, because we talk about both sides of the coin.

Why can they go far?

Well, it can possibly hold them back, but it's not just me on this episode.

No, no, we have one of the greatest basketball minds out there.

Evan Miyakawa of EvanMia.com.

He joins the show, talks all the great things happening with Michigan State going into March.

What could hamper this team?

And how about we just get to that chat right now?

As if there isn't enough going on in this guy's life,

we dragged them on to talk Michigan State basketball, the numbers behind this team,

what they can do in March.

Yes, you already know what I'm talking about.

The one, the only Evan Miyakawa of EvanMia.com.

And Evan, you were on my Monday, because let's talk about it.

You got a great website, awesome numbers, metrics, analytics.

We're going to get to all of that, but you also have a fun little bracket simulator.

So I hit that button, simulate the bracket to see to Michigan State.

They beat Iowa State in the sweet 16.

They beat Kansas in the elite eight, and it is final four, number nine for Tom Ezzo.

And all be darned.

National championship game for Michigan State.

And then my eyes look to see what happens.

We lose to Michigan in the national championship game.

So Evan, three parts such this opening question here, how you doing?

Good to see you again.

Number two, what the hell is your problem?

And number three, how far do you actually see Michigan State going in March here,

man, because it got me excited before I felt like throwing up.

Before before we get into that, I got to ask if that is the outcome right now,

and it's take it or leave it Michigan State to the title game and lose to Michigan.

Are you taking it?

No, no, no, no, no.

And if that means I'm a coward and I'm a was so be it, I don't care.

I know that I live in a life where that is the outcome.

So no, I will not.

I'm sorry, guys.

I'm sorry, I am who I am.

That's the honest answer, though.

I could not smile for the next 10 years if that happened.

Yeah, I don't necessarily blame you, but also, how often is it that you make a national title?

Oh, I understand.

I mean, losing national titles is tough, no matter what.

I go back to that Duke, North Carolina, final four, and I said to myself,

oh, my God, imagine being a Duke fan.

And it would be that I feel like times five in the actual national championship games

that are the final four, but it's March.

Oh, God.

Here we go.

So for me, a picture where I'm at with Michigan State is, if you look at them on my website

at evanmia.com, all the ratings are predicting how good a team is going to be doing forward,

not just how good they've been this season, Michigan State slots in at ninth.

That is comfortably among teams that are final four threats and could do more damage,

certainly could win a national title, though I wouldn't put them in the tier with Michigan,

Duke, Arizona, those teams, they're, they're kind of in that next tier.

But certainly a team dangerous to make a final four, no question.

And you know, there's a lot of things I like about this team.

I think the narrative for me all season long with Michigan State has been I and many others

did not expect this team roster wise to be amongst the best in the big 10 and at various

points, you know, competing to win a big 10 regular season title at various points during

the season.

And this has ultimately been a story of if you look at all the teams that I have ranked

in the top 10 right now, Michigan State comfortably had the worst roster on paper of any of those

teams.

Okay.

What I take from that is Tom iso has done the Tom iso thing again.

It's he has found value in a way to get these guys to play together led by Jeremy fears,

connecting all those pieces that I don't think many other coaches could do.

I think this team is more than the sum of their parts.

And I think if you even put some of these players on different teams, like my point is this

is not a slight on the roster at all.

It's Tom iso has figured out how to get this team connecting and jelling in the most college

basketball way possible.

And I think that's what makes them very dangerous in March because they're more connected

than most teams.

They have shown an ability to punch above their weight and beat teams that that on paper

might have been maybe looking down on them.

So for force guys sitting in the bracket and saying Michigan State makes a a sweet 16 makes

an elite eight and they are matched up against a Duke and Arizona, a Florida of all those

teams that are kind of in the two to three seed range.

Like I might take Michigan State as having the best chance of throwing out the odds and

just saying this team is a team that could do it.

And hey, the track record is there.

You look back to Duke's Zion season and it was Michigan State and a team like that beating

them to get to the final four.

That's a lot of what I see in this group right now and what makes them really special.

Got playing the hits already.

You've made up for Rudy my Monday.

I appreciate that talking about Mr. March talking about the great game in 2019, but let's

keep the good vibes rolling here because what is the most redeeming quality with this

Michigan State team?

And I know that is such a broad question.

You can go anyway with it.

You could talk about any numbers that you have.

You could just point to Jeremy fears and say, it's him, but where do you want to steer

this car here, Evan?

Yeah, I do think Jeremy fears for me as the story.

And I think at this point in the season for various number of reasons, I think Jeremy

fears is being underappreciated by the general public or at least he's being talked about

often, but it's not always the best stuff that's being talked about.

If we're talking about just what is happening on the court and how is he impacting basketball

and winning?

There is an argument that he is, if not the most indispensable player, one of the most

indispensable players in the country based on his importance to this team.

And I actually have a metric for that on my website called indispensable score.

And it basically is looking at what's the difference between how your teams should be

performing when you have a player and you don't have a player and what's the drop off

there?

Cameron Booser is number one in that category.

That's not a surprise.

Best player in the country miles away Duke's best player, they would be a totally different

team without him.

But Jeremy fears is number two.

Jeremy fears is number two in that.

And that makes a ton of sense to me.

And actually, if we look at the top of this list, there's a lot of big, big 10 names on

this list.

Bruce Thornton number three, Braden Smith number four, Yaxel and the work five Bennett

shirt six, all of these guys are guys that have kind of risen as the comfortable number

one option on their team.

Many of them are most of them all being the point guards that run the show.

But Jeremy fears has shown himself to be the most valuable of all of them and most valuable

and crucial to his team.

And so I have been so impressed by what he's been able to do as a playmaker this year,

as a score this year.

And I think he has grown into the season as the season's gone along.

He's a better player now than he was in December.

And he's got a chip on his shoulder.

And I think he thrives being hated and talked about in these ways.

I think it fuels him.

So that's a good thing for this team.

I sure hope so because that's the way the dialogue is going here.

But hey, you know what?

He's shown up to the occasion in the last months and he's not the only one though, of course.

He of course gets the most spotlight, both for his play and he's in the fairies that

happens, of course.

But Evan, who on this team deserves even more shine because I think Jeremy fears is now

a household name who is close to being a household name though this March when everyone

starts tuning into the Spartans.

I think forget the data for a second anecdotally when I watch this team and I pick out when

Michigan state is playing well and I and I connect that to a certain player being on

or being energizing to me.

It's always Jackson color.

Yeah.

And I think especially when it seems to me, it's almost like whenever he's able to make

his first three at the top of the key and get the crowd fired up like everything just

goes downhill in a in a in a good way for the Michigan state Spartans then.

And then data wise, that is backed up to he is the second most valuable player on the team

according to Bayesian performance rating on my site.

He is almost or I think fears color and Cooper all very similar in their defensive rating.

So he's been really valuable there.

And I think he is one of the leaders after curtailing engine terms of adjusted team efficiency

margin, which measures how good is the team playing when they're on the court, regardless

of their individual stats.

So he has been really crucial to their performance as well.

And to me, like if if Jackson color is playing a good game, it seems really difficult to

stop Michigan state.

So that's it.

That's a big key for me that I'm watching.

And I think it makes sense why he slots in as they're comfortably their second most

valuable player on the team according to my metrics there.

Every fan of every team, I had a gripper to when the all conference teams came out yesterday.

And most of my biggest one was Carson Cooper not being one of the five on the big 10 all defensive

team permission to keep on crying about that.

Evan or are you going to give me some stats that say no, he's actually not one of the five best

big 10 defenders or are you going to enable me to keep on moping around like a sad zoo

line here about Carson Cooper knocking his flowers defensively, Evan, because I'm still

needed.

I'll throw two metrics at you.

One is overall defensive BPR, which measures your value on the court.

And Michigan state their put their top three are all very similar in that and it's Cooper

color and fears.

And they basically slot in eighth, ninth, and tenth in the big 10.

However, if you're just going based on stats alone, how impressive are the numbers that

he's putting up in the defensive end box defensive BPR is what measures that and he comes

in fifth.

And the guys ahead of him are a dimar, a Yaxxel and a Borg, a big Z at Illinois and

a Jacob Kofi at USC with Cooper being fifth.

So I think statistically in the way that most people often look at this, both in terms of

what's your presence on the court, but also like what are what are the numbers showing?

Like how is you are you impacting things in terms of your blocks and rebounds and stuff?

Like he absolutely has an argument to be there.

I wouldn't say it's a shut door like case for me that he should be in that, but the numbers

are certainly they are supported.

So I don't think that's crazy.

The shut door stuff is safe for people like me, you know, the ones with MSU paraphernalia

all around them when they talk.

So I'll handle that.

But hey, I feel vindicated at least a little bit.

So I appreciate that.

Evan.

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Also guys, and we're talking the every day listeners of this podcast, hey shout out to

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Well, obviously, you gotta look at both sides of the coin here when it comes to March.

We've obviously just talked about a lot of great things with Michigan State here, but

what could be the thing that slows them down in March?

I've lawn said on my show that these power outages on offense that we've seen kind of the

whole season, but especially recently where it's a four or five bordering on six minute stretch

with no field goals made, I don't know if you could do that in March.

But when I ask, like, what do you think will be the Achilles heel here?

Where do you go here, Evan?

I was going to say there could be a lot of things.

I actually don't think there's a lot of things.

This team is very solid, but the thing that jumps out to me the biggest on paper,

and it's something that I tweeted about just today is looking at the depth on this team

compared to a lot of the other teams that are going to be in it.

You're already ready with it.

So basically what this graphic looks at is it's looking at the gap between the most

valuable player on your team and the eighth best player.

Now obviously team rotations could be shorter or longer than that in March, and a lot of

times often they are go down to six or seven, but Michigan State basically has five or

six guys that they've been playing regularly, and then that seventh eighth ninth spot has

kind of rotated between several players.

You start to get down into those numbers there into those seventh eighth ninth best guys.

The gap between Michigan State's best player and fears and all the way down to the bottom

is way, way larger than a lot of these other teams that are going to be of a similar skill

level.

And to kind of put some numbers on this, Jeremy fears, as I mentioned, top five player

in the country, second most indispensable player, all that stuff.

If you rank every player on Michigan State's roster and you start working your way down,

right?

And they're starting five is all within the top two hundred and fifty players in the

country.

That's very good.

But then we start getting down further.

Cam Ward is ranked five hundred and ninety fourth to find who could chukwu, who is not

an option anymore, is barely inside the top one thousand.

And if you're looking for options outside of that, trade for Jesse McCulloch and Denim

Wojik are all in the around ranked twenty five hundred best player in the country.

That's below division one average, like it is not normal for a team this good to be playing

guys regularly in the rotation who are below division one average in this metric.

So regard, I mean, obviously you can make an argument for any one of those guys that

they're better than that.

And Thomas knows how to use them.

But that is a massive, massive gap.

And when you compare that to say a team like Illinois or Yukon or Iowa State or obviously

all the one seeds, there is way less of a talent and effectiveness drop off when they go

down to their bench.

So I worry about Michigan State's minutes in spots when they're having to go more to

their bench or maybe some guys are dealing with foul trouble is, is Tom is going to shorten

the rotation.

Is he going to live with with those that rotation being longer, but then having that drop

in quality, that's something that really intrigues me and a little bit worries me with

this team.

I've said as much to that, hey, the bench is going to be the X factor in every game moving

forward here.

And like, so it's not surprising to hear about boy, how did you're a visual learner?

Like, I can be oftentimes, that is a little jarring, especially, you know, and, hey,

Define's one of those best players, but he's not even around anymore.

So it's cam wartime, it's curtailing time.

And we'll see if trade for even get some time moving forward the rest of the season though.

But you use the word drop off, which kind of leads me to a question that I've just been

thrown around myself here.

It of course seems like another year where the one seeds are leaps and bounds ahead of

all the other teams.

Where is that drop off?

Is it simply just Duke, Michigan, Arizona, then your drop off happens?

Is Florida now up in that one spot?

Yukon, I guess, where do you see this giant drop off between the best of the best and then

the rest of us?

Right now, if I am picking my list of teams that I would feel comfortable picking in my

bracket to win the whole thing and recommending to others, it is just the top four Michigan

Duke, Arizona and Florida.

I see a massive drop right now from Florida to that next group of teams, Houston, Yukon,

Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Iowa State, like that next group of teams.

There is a massive, massive drop right there.

And to me, that doesn't mean that it's a guarantee that one of these one seeds, likely one

seeds wins the whole thing, but it's certainly as high as it is it would be.

And there's not really another team that really jumps off the page as being super equal

footing with them.

Now, obviously, a team like Michigan State absolutely could be any team in the country,

but they would be a significant underdog in any one of those games.

And I think that would be the case for any of those teams within that tier.

I do think Michigan and Duke have separated.

There's a little bit of separation between them and Arizona and Florida.

But the bigger message for me at this point is I think those four, which are likely to

be the four one seeds, assuming nothing crazy happens this week in conference tournament

play.

I do think they are a significant level above.

And so I think it's probably at least 50, 50 that all of them would be making the elite

aid.

If not further, will we see a full final four with all one seeds?

It's never going to be more likely than not, but it's certainly, you know, just as likely

or maybe even more likely as it was last year.

And that's what we ended up seeing.

So before you know, let you go, before we get to Michigan State Bracketology talk with

just myself here in a little bit, I need help filling out my bracket.

Now this is absurd because conference tournaments largely haven't been played yet.

We don't even know where these guys are going to march madness, but I'm not here to make

life easy for Evan because I'm in dire need of help.

And this is probably the last time we'll speak before selection Sunday.

So I got six teams here.

I got no idea how far to take them on my bracket because the variance of how they look when

they're at their best versus the worst.

Oh, it's wide.

Evan, I will state am I sending them to the final four or am I asking them the first

week or somewhere?

I don't know what to do with this team, man.

Relatively speaking, I have been more out on Iowa State in the last month or so.

I think they're not as strong a team as they were early in the season.

I think they're still very capable of making a final four, but I don't think that's as sure

a bet.

So I would probably have them going out more probably getting to the sweet 16 is likely

where I would put them right now.

Team number two, as far as teams that have broken my brain, Kansas, everything on paper

suggests that things should be all good in the hood.

You've seen them play very good in set, but the hood isn't always good, Evan, so what

do I do with Kansas?

What when this bracket comes out?

I'm going to borrow that and just say the hood isn't always good with Kansas.

It's not.

I am not that off the Kansas train in the sense that they have gone through all of this

turmoil with Darren Peterson and is he playing, is he not playing as he healthy, not healthy

and all this and despite that, they have managed to go through all that and they're still

a top 20 team in the nation.

And I think that's a route about what I expected from them from the preseason, assuming

that they were going to be fully healthy and that they weren't going to have any Darren

Peterson cramping issues.

So this has never been a team to me that I thought was going to be good enough to win

a national title or be a likely team to make a final four, but this is absolutely a team

that could cause some noise.

And when you have the ingredient of Darren Peterson, who's going to be the most talented

player in any game he's playing probably, assuming he's playing well, but even if he's

not, Kansas has managed to beat teams like Arizona without him.

So I feel pretty comfortable at this point, saying I'll probably have Kansas in my sweet

16.

And at that point, they're going to be underdogs, but they certainly could win against anyone

they're playing if they're playing well.

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Now I yesterday on our show admitted that I will be making this mistake.

I already know what I'm going to do with Purdue, the preseason number one team.

Elite eight for sure, maybe even file four because despite that they've clunked their

weight at the end of the season, I'm going to take the cheese, I'm going to get my head

chopped off.

How bad is it going to hurt though when I get my head chopped off by the mouse trap here?

It'll hurt because I'm going to be in this, I'm going to be in the same camp too.

It's going to hurt me as well.

I think especially given how the narrative is shifted on Purdue, I think a lot of people

are going to be really reticent to pick them to go far in the bracket.

And for that reason, I want to because I think there will be value in picking Purdue to go

to an at least elite eight final four.

That probably depends on the matchup and they would be an underdog in that game.

But I still think this team is good enough to do it.

They're not going to be in Machia arena anymore.

And that's maybe that's a good thing this year.

So I'm still relatively in on this Purdue team at least in terms of compared to where

the masses are most likely.

Three more.

I'll try to go through these quick Wisconsin.

We've seen them be capable of winning a national championship.

We've seen them also play to a one and done type of basketball.

What on earth to do with the badgers?

Yeah, it seems to me like first round out or elite eight is sort of where I see them.

So flip a coin and pick one.

That's pretty much where I'm at.

That's precisely what I'm going to be doing actually.

Next up, Arkansas, who Michigan State saw earlier this year and after that game, I said

we caught them at a good time.

They'll only get better.

I don't know if they're final four good or not, but my goodness gracious, Darius A.

Cough, that young man can play some hoops of an where on earth might take it Arkansas.

Cause I got no idea based on vibes.

I really want to pick Arkansas to my elite eight.

And I can see I could picture them playing against a Florida in a, or an Arizona in a

massive elite eight game with Darius A cup.

I can just totally see it not a guarantee they get there.

And they certainly are susceptible of losing, but their offense is one of the best

offenses in the country, led by one of the most prolific, exciting players in the country.

So right now based on knowing nothing about how the matchups going, I'm probably picking

up.

I want to pick Arkansas to my elite eight, but at least it's sweet 16, for sure.

Last but not least, and I'm stressed because I've seen this team paired up against Michigan

State a lot, BYU, they've had that big injury.

Whenever I see them on TV, they're losing games, but they have DeBonsta, if I'm saying

that name right, I've heard it pronounced 18 different ways, but like you know who I'm

talking about, the number one overall pick.

Where's BYU going?

Like, should I just listen to what I've seen on TV, have them out in the first or second

round?

Or is there some value here, Evan, because I don't know, I'm already stressed.

I think a BYU second round matchup against a one or two C would be must watch TV, but

based on where they're going to be seated, compared to how good their team actually is,

I think it's very likely that I will be picking them to be upset in the first round.

For the sake of figuring out where my upsets are going to come from, it's likely against

a team like BYU, that's not at full strength, and that has been a lot worse down the stretch.

So again, it depends on the matchup, but right now I think it's very likely that I would

be not picking them to win a single game in the tournament.

You're welcome, everyone, for winning your bracket pool right there.

Myself included, let's all pet ourselves in the back.

Evan, you are simply the best, always love your material, whatever you're hopping on,

whatever show it is, but especially this one too, cannot thank you enough for your time,

your insight.

Anything you want to plug here before you let you go and enjoy the madness that will come

soon.

Absolutely.

Well, you can find everything at FMEA.com, and I've got a new weekly show, which will include

a full bracket analysis region by region breakdown, which will be out next Tuesday morning.

So if the listeners to your show want to get some more coverage, that's where you should

go to check that out.

I'll be checking that out.

And guys, well, stay tuned, because you're not told me just yet, we got to talk MSU

and that's where we're going to be right now, and we'll see you in the next few days.

Stay tuned.

We'll see you.

Yes, guys.

Before I let you go, let's just look at Michigan State's bracket, and let's find out what

our rooting interest should be for the Big Ten tournament, SCC tournament, Big 12 tournament

because these are all going to matter with where Michigan State will start their march madness

journey.

Now, if you go on over to bracket matrix, what this does, if you don't know, it takes

all the bracket allergies out there online from the massive guys, like Joel and already

to the people that have 13 page views a month, like they have every bracket allergy on

their site, consolidate them, and they spit out what the average of each team is.

So right now, Michigan State is the fourth best two seed.

So they are right on the cusp of being a two seed or three seed now.

All right, guys, Joe Cook's sugar.

He has them in the middle of the three seed pack.

He's got him as the third best three seed for that, it matter.

Hey, you know what, of all them, yeah, Michigan State is just right on that fence of two

to three seed.

Now, ahead of them on the two seed line, according to bracket matrix, Yukon is the best

two seed, Houston is the second best two seed, and then Illinois is just ahead of our

Spartans.

They have right behind Michigan State on the three seed line Iowa State's looming, Nebraska

is looming, Purdue is still getting into the mix here and then Gonzaga, which by the

way, Gonzaga, they're out of games.

I would be a little stunned to see them hop on the two seed line, even though they just

won their conference tournament last night.

But there's no more other quad one opportunities for Gonzaga because, well, there's no more games

for Gonzaga.

And if you want to take it even further on the four seed line, Alabama, should they rattle

off the SEC tournament, sure, Virginia, if they want to make some waves in the ACC, why

not?

Kansas and Texas Tech, those are the rest of the four seed.

So it could very well be boiled down to this year, as far as who gets the last

two seeds behind Yukon and Houston, who seem to be cemented in that two seed spot here.

So could it be that we are just going to see what two teams in this big tent tournament

make it the furthest out of Purdue, Nebraska, Illinois, MSU, we very well could actually

reach out to Joe Cook's sugar to see if there's any truth to that sentence.

And he said, might be a little bit more nuanced than that, but for simplicity, that's not

a bad way of looking at it.

So let's see if, uh, hey, Illinois, Michigan State, they make it both into the semi-finals.

Well, those could be the last two two seeds, Nebraska, they make it further than Purdue

and Michigan State.

I think they could absolutely grab a two seed here.

So a lot more nuance than that, but that's the simple way of putting it.

Let's see what four of those teams of Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois and Michigan State make

it further in Chicago this week and now it gets interesting starting on Friday because

Purdue and Nebraska very likely will play against each other.

So that's going to weed one of those teams out and then Illinois and the other hand,

they would have to beat Wisconsin to reach the semi-finals.

So that you're really solid win.

And then if they beat Michigan on that Saturday, well, yeah, I think that would also put them

in cement for that two seed.

So what is the rooting guide this weekend moving forward here?

Well, first and foremost, um, you still need Michigan State to win.

And no, I'm probably not breaking any news there.

But yeah, if you lose Friday night to whether it's at Minnesota, Rutgers or UCLA,

I would say the two seed is in great jeopardy and we're probably looking at a three seed here.

So I'll give you a win on Friday.

This goes back to our conversation we had with Joe Cook's sugar last week that

there's actually data suggesting that a lot of the field and the seedings are set after Friday's games.

You went Friday, go ahead.

Hey, maybe you're already there, but maybe this is also true too.

Maybe Saturday does actually matter.

It would give you a great opportunity to smoothly put ice on that thing with beating either

Purdue or Nebraska.

So yeah, Michigan State has to win.

They're not like you, Connor Houston, where they could lose and still be a two seed.

They have to keep on winning here at least one game, at least one game.

Now outside of that, Illinois, we're going to be rooting for Wisconsin here to knock them out.

And whether you're comfortable doing this or not, should these two teams meet on Saturday,

Illinois or Michigan?

You would want Michigan to beat them.

I don't know if I can get up to outright root for Michigan, but that's what's at stake

right now.

Now in Nebraska versus Purdue, should the Boiler Makers make it to Friday?

I think Purdue actually is a team that we want to root for between the Boiler Makers and

the Huskers because there are already behind Michigan State, according to the bracket matrix.

And MSU also has the head to head against them.

Now of course, they can meet up again on Saturday, but will already be too late for

the committee.

Who is to stay?

Stay tuned to find out.

Now let's go over to big 12 country because let's look at Iowa State.

They are a team also vying for a two seed.

So they will likely handle Arizona State, I would imagine, but then they get Texas Tech

on Thursday.

So we are big Texas Tech fans on Thursday night.

Should the cyclones handle business against the sun devils and then take on the red raiders.

Go red raiders, guns up or whatever they do.

Yeah, guns ablaze and sure, whatever.

Go tech.

All right.

The winner of that game also likely gets Arizona.

So whoever wins that game, we would want to see as a sacrificial lamb against Arizona,

but let's not get too ahead of ourselves right here.

And Alabama, they're also looking on the outside looking in for two seed.

They get started on Friday against any of the three teams out about to name Georgia, Texas

or Ole Miss.

So yeah, we want Alabama to go down early two.

So hopefully that made sense.

Basically, keep room for Michigan State and root against every other team that you see.

But yeah, there we have it guys.

We will be back on tomorrow's show.

We're going to break down whoever Michigan State is going to be playing on Friday.

So the next episode will not come out until very late after we find out what happens between

UCLA and whoever they play.

I think it will be Minnesota, but based on my Oregon Maryland prediction yesterday, do not

hold out too much hope for that.

That was not one of the good takes.

And that Oregon would win two games, this big 10 tournaments.

It's okay.

Getting all my losses out of the way before March Madness truly really begins.

All right, guys, we will be back though.

Again, later on tomorrow.

Until next time, though.

Take care of yourselves.

Love you all.

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