Five Fantasy Baseball Mistakes Experts Made in 2026

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1:02See terms. Yes, is Angus Maximus. This partner has one pound of a pound of hot. Suzy cooked to auto Angus speed. It's more expensive than a quarter pounder. The panel is closed. And for only $5.99, even regular juice can afford it. Like that guy. Give me that big open. Yes. The whole Angus Maximus only $5.99 is whole senior. Available for a limited time and participating restaurants tax on included not valid for use within a combo or in combination with any other offer or discount. Fred Zinky is in the Champions League for finals for Towers. The Towers head to head Champions League championship, if you will. Talk about that, but we're also going to talk about despite that he's made some mistakes this year. We'll talk about some of those mistakes. I've had copious mistakes. I don't think I need to list them all. We'll talk about some of mine as well. Some big news, some big returns, some big scratches tonight. All that here on the Roto R fantasy baseball podcast brought to you by the good folks over at Circus Sportsbooking casino.

2:03Circus millions circus survivor. I'm in both. You can see the hats behind me there. Big fan of that. It's not too late to sign up. Still have time to sign up for those contests. If you happen to be in the state of Nevada anywhere there. And then just get a proxy if you're not. If you don't live there. But anyways, Fred, let's jump right into it here. If you are in the finals of the Towers Champions championship. Yeah, trying to be the champion of champions, I guess. I'll make an edited version and AI version of we are the champions to we are the champions of champions. Yes. If I if I if I can pull this off against Derek Cardi, it's a two week final. Okay. I narrowly I have been it's been like every round like narrowly got past Derek Van Riper last week. Um, narrowly past the end con the previous weekend as we talked about here narrowly made the playoffs period. Um, the week before so it's been tight, but I think it's just if you have two people who like are attentive and understand fantasy baseball and you're playing just for one week. Like it's I'm finding like it's hard for either person to pull away like the matchups just are really close people are going to strategically.

3:09Use their waiver moves to stream starters or not stream starters or find base dealers or something. Okay, so this is two weeks of Derek Cardi and I have a hundred will come down to the last couple days. Yeah, I probably will. Um, and you know, it's got to be one of those there where you're just looking right away at like, you know, trying to figure out. Best way to go about doing it. So did you in the past you've been minimizing your innings and focusing most of your moves on the hitting side of things. Are you doing that for this final as well? Probably so I picked up two hitters at the start of the final. I haven't touched my pitching yet. There were a lot of there were actually some good streamers last night that or yes or afternoon like Trevor Rogers was one that pops to mind. He was available. I didn't pick him up yet a great start and got a win. Like it's easy to say afterwards. Right. Um, you know, Derek picked up Joey Cantillo for his start that did not go well. So like I get it the double as sort of streamers. Because it's two weeks, I think I might just take some time here.

4:10So what we get seven roster moves a week, but what we get for the finals is 14 for two weeks. So you don't have to use seven in each week. So I think I might just like let this build a bit and see what my ratios look like by this weekend even. And like where we're trending and in the different categories and things like that. So that's kind of my thought process is if I'm going to stream sketchy starters, I can stream a bunch of them next week or I can stream a bunch of them this week. But I think I might just wait and see because you're right. I've been kind of letting the other manager win strikeouts trying to mostly compete in wins and hope and try to nail the ratios. Yeah, but Derek has some good pictures. So that may not be possible this time. Yeah. Well, that's the thing is, but you're in the final. You know, you're supposed to be going up again. Yeah, some pictures here. Hopefully you don't have Andrew painter. He's already down for nothing after one inning. Looking at some of the other scores here, there's Brandon Young. You probably don't have him. I would hope not this level of no, but I did think about him a little bit.

5:12So, so bullet. Cleveland's a Cleveland's a bad offense and Trevor Rogers cleaned up against him yesterday. So I didn't pick him up because again, I'm being a little cautious here at the beginning of a two week block. I think he might have been my first pick of what was available tonight. So is he off to a poor start as well? Yeah, he is off to a tough start there as well. And Cndl Contra is off to a tough start as well. He has given up five runs and they're in the bottom of the second inning on that one there. Five earn runs for Cndl Contra, Andrew painter there. He's down for nothing. I'm looking to see how bad and it's all those were earned. So, he does have four Ks. He's got that for going up against the guy who's been sneaky good lately. We've talked about him briefly here in there. Hayden was Nesky off to a pretty good start so far this season. He's thrown one scoreless inning so far. They're in the bottom of the second on that one there. So there's your score updates early on there. Trust me, it's that time of year. It's not too early. I think start box score watching. It's exhausting because there's like two and a half weeks still left, but I'm already doing it like labor. You're doing in Towers obviously because you're in the championship game. But those leagues where you you have irons in the fire. It's not too early to start sweat and players.

6:26Yeah, and that's the fun of it because I mean at this time of year, it's going to be gone soon, right? So I mean, you're like you said you've got less than three weeks and then sure I'll play fantasy football and things that but we won't have the daily of fantasy baseball. Yeah, I'm going to try to sweat it. I'm going to try to sweat it. Sweat it all out over the next couple weeks because it'll be gone before you have some NFBC teams also that are either in first or really close to first. So I'll just sweat all of it until until the end of the season because it'll be over before you know it and then we'll have a long break. Yeah, that's right. That's right. So it's fun doing that there. Yeah, so we'll be definitely taking a look at some of those. There's stuff that we have to talk about. There's a lot of news going on. Let's jump right into it. It's 530 in and we're already at the stress point here. So let's jump right into it. Aaron judge is back. He is not going to be like full time all the way back. They said that he's going to maybe not even play a full game tonight. They'll get some games off here and there, but he is back after not having a minor league rehab assignment.

7:30Yeah, it does seem like, I don't know, my enthusiasm was I don't have Aaron judge on any teams, but my enthusiasm for him if someone's still hanging around in their race after going so long without him. My enthusiasm was dulled a bit because it sounds like yeah, like they're going to be pretty careful with this playing time at least for the next few days. I'm not sure to hold next week. Maybe we would then he'll have more of a full workload, but it definitely seems like they're going to really, you know, because like you said, like because he didn't really rehab, like rehab all the way back. They're going to kind of do it with the aunties and take their time. So I don't know how, I mean, doesn't take much of Aaron judge playing well for him to be really valuable. But I'm not sure. I'm not sure if he's like just an automatic putting your line up this week. I guess if you've been waiting this long years, but you know what I mean, Jeff, like, yeah, what if he only plays half time this week.

8:31It's a good question. So yeah, the right. So if you just place half time this week, he may not may not be that valuable. So I'd have to compare them to him, just what I needed. And you know, maybe if you place half time, so you still have to home run or something. But well, two that is in the main event. He's only 58% started. So there you go. And maybe it's because you got activated on Tuesday and that has something to do with that same with the online championship. It's 49% started this week in the NFBC. So that just gives you a starting point as far as it goes. If he were available. I mean, which I mean, if there's any player you want right now, you MP the team before. So that's kind of a question. I'm not even going to ask the question moving on. If he's available, you get him if you want. But that's it. Corbin Burns going to return today for the Arizona Diamondbacks. This game, that game starts up in about 20 minutes from we're recording about it's about 720 Eastern time that game starts at 740 Eastern time. He did not go very deep. He's I think is he went like 43 pitches in his last simulated game. So I doubt he goes very deep in this game. I doubt he goes five, let alone goes 7580 pitches or anything like that.

9:36But maybe the second start, he goes a little deeper there. I first of all, I'm amazed that the Diamondbacks are where they are without with the way they're pitching has gone this year, but in the way they haven't this is Burns's first start all season long. Yeah, I think really what we're doing is just 2027 auditing from a fantasy perspective burns like I don't think he's worth picking up. I don't think he can help anyone in a mix lead down the stretch. You're just watching him velocity, you know, trying to just get a feel for you know, does he seem like he's all the way back. I have a hunch we're going to decide that he's not all the way back. And then his draft price will be low until spring training starts and then we'll just see where the radar gun readings go and if we decide that he is all the way back. Yeah, I have him and as a keeper, like in a score sheet league, I'm glad he's coming back this year. So I want to be this year. You know, that always kind of get you know, because it's always command with these pictures when they have a lengthy absence like this that you're always worried about.

10:40So yeah, give him a couple of reps this year. So we have a better chance to be ready for the start of next season. I like that. Same game Corbin Carroll got scratched. Played us on him is it's back low back discomfort there. You know, he's slumping. I didn't realize he's slumping because I don't have a whole lot of Corbin Carroll this year. And his last 58 plate appearances hitting 148 on base at 200 with one home or in that stretch. So perhaps that spilled over to us play. He is not in the lineup tonight. Yeah, in the second half Corbin Carroll hitting 215 with six home runs. So yeah, just he's he's he's had a bad second half 16 RBI since the All Star break like that's pretty bad numbers. So he's still still stolen 11 bases in second half, like there's still he's still contributing in some ways, but six homeers 11 or 16 RBI in a 215 average. So I would say also Corbin Carroll with the sore back depending on your league size may not be a must start player here down the stretch. If you have someone who is playing well and you know they're going to play full time.

11:43They could could be for a partial week or something like that. They could be more valuable in him. Absolutely. So Tony returned last night after a four game absence had struggled at the plate had over three with a walk. They showed a montage on sports center. I think he struck out against chase burns. They didn't show like all the other players that are striking against chase burns and that that that awful slide or that awesome slider. He has awful if you're a hitter. But show Heya, Tony, not in the lineup today. Yeah, I left him in a lineup this week because it's an NFC so it's only a partial week. I'm kind of regretting it right now. Right. Like, yeah, of course, like I don't know. I guess I'll see by Friday, but I need to be more open minded maybe to bench him. I just keep thinking like it's O'Tani. Like I got to leave middle lineup, but I really, I guess I don't like I don't really need to leave middle lineup. So he has a 799 OPS in the second half to hitting 246 with eight homeers. And 22 RBI. They're like, okay numbers. They're not terrible. Like there enough to be like your fourth outfield or something in a five outfiller league, but they're not really good numbers.

12:54So and given that he's been has been playing a lot lately. Like there's another guy who. Yeah, if you if you've got someone maybe on on your bench this weekend who you feel will start all three games. It's why the weekend we don't feel like that with O'Tani. I don't know. Maybe a poem. It's just so hard because it's O'Tani, but I'll be really interested to see depending on how this. There's so much to be written so with O'Tani because of October with the Dodgers, but I'll be interested to see where he goes and drafts like only 11 11 steals this year is probably not stealing anymore. So he's going to finish the season with like we're getting close up that we can pretty much tell you what he's going to finish the season with right. We're going to probably steal more than one more base or something. We know he's not pitching. So that's right. We got that part down and he's at 30 homers. So like a huge drop off. So let's just say he finishes the season with like 32 homers, 33 homers and like 11 steals like it's it's good. It's good. But I'll be interested to see where he goes because the obviously the we can't just like at that. 2026 the previous seasons were just otherworldly so yeah, I'll be interested to see you know this he go top two or three still does he go more mid first round late first round.

14:03I'll be interested to see I think when we step back he'll go at least still in the top five or so right that's my guess. But yeah. Well PCA. I feel like PCA is almost certainly going to go one. Who else he putting in the top five. Who else would you consider taking ahead of O'Tani? Well, we just talked about him. So Aaron judge. Really? After this after what happened this year, you would take. I don't know. I don't know. So he's actually like almost like in a similar vein to O'Tani. Like he's like Aaron judge had like again otherworldly numbers. Like for several years and then this year miss a lot of time in the injury. So. O'Tani's been impacted by an injury. I don't know judge has a 907 OPS like it's I don't know when we step back and look at judge. Like he had an OPS over a thousand four straight years going into this year and even this year which was a bummer of a year it's still 907 so. I don't know. But I think that's the way in the meatball draft.

15:05The Rob need Pietro is draft to win PCA O'Tani with judge. Caminero went five by the way. Right. Yeah. Caminero is going to be popular like just his age. He's going to hit 40 homers this year. He's third base eligible. I could see a lot of people saying. I think he's going to be the last one to come with O'Tani in his 30s with all the injuries that he finished season with. And again we'll see in October he could hit eight home runs in October and really flip the script on us judge same thing. And some people might say why not Caminero is young. He's going to be coming off a 40 home or season. You know he was also really good the year before now he's gotten over that hole like can he hit now with tropical as his home park. Yes he can. Yeah he could end up being I could see him getting really high in drafts and just. I just you know drafters saying I don't I don't want to mess around with O'Tani and judge in the injury risk. I'll just take. I'm not that Caminero doesn't have injury risk. He's still a baseball player but. And get the third base eligibility and I know you and I've talked about how like you shouldn't just draft.

16:09For position eligibility in the early rounds, but I do think it'll influence people. So I think that's I think that's a could be a possibility. I don't think James would dance those players yet. I know like he's like I'm just looking at the figures this year. I don't think he'd dance those players yet. It's kind of one so I want to get we don't have to get to deep in the next year but. You're right that PCA is going to go first ever like is it going to be basically a 40 40 player this year with the solid band average. I feel like if if I'm not getting PCA. I don't know if I care where I draft next year. Like I don't know if I really care about there's a wit as you mentioned. I don't know if I really care if I draft second or third or eighth. That's my immediate thought is like you really. You'll you'll start to develop hard opinions soon maybe maybe at some point in the office. But do I really need Bobby with his 17 homers and 51 RBI like do I like is that really what I like I need to get picked to so I can get Bobby with 17 homers this year and 51 RBI.

17:19I just I don't know I I kind of wonder if like maybe I'll just be like I don't really care like I'll take Ellie I'll take you're not Alvarez like they're all like I don't know I'm interested to see you're right when I start doing projections. Maybe there will be some separation. I think this separation guys though would be judge and Otoni if I give them 150 games. If I don't give them 150 games if I say these guys are in their 30s and they're coming off entry impacted seasons and I give them 140 games 137 game. All of a sudden the counting stats come down and they just come into a pack of players. Right so yeah. Yeah fun stuff fun stuff. Yeah I know we're definitely going to have to do a look ahead like our last episode we'll start looking at next you do it like things we're going to know for next year that sort of thing and definitely we'll be hitting that up a little bit more. All right good stuff there good stuff but let's move on sticking with that red Dodgers game first of all chase burns pitch very well.

18:23Three shut out innings five strikeouts but it was three innings you have another start on Sunday with a similar sort of usage. But there's zero chance of him getting a win it's going to be like your crochet it seems like they're going to keep going with him as the first pitcher and then Brandon Williamson later so there's no chance that burns getting a win. You cut him after this week did you start him this week if you had him. I did I do have a minute league I did start him I thought like you're right you're not getting a win. But you've already got five strikeouts and three shut it innings so if you get good ratios from and you get even let's say let's say it's four strikeouts next time nine strike it like you're not going to find a pitcher on waivers or on your bench probably you can get your nine strikeouts and good ratios. Right so right so I'm starting no problem now looking ahead to next week. Am I going to take let's say you just get something like this start three innings and five strikeouts. I guess the question is are you using middle relievers like if you're in a 15 team league at this point this season you may be using middle relievers now I know the I know the middle relievers have a chance for a win.

19:30So you could say for example like like I use Adrian Morhone on some of my teams right now like yeah as to get in big innings like he's going to finish the year with I don't know how many wins a good amount of wins for reliever I love you guys yeah totally so what I rather use him or what I rather use burns I'm probably going to get a similar amount of strikeouts as I would from a one start burns say four or five ratios are probably similar like I know burns through three shadow last night but like it's not always going to do that so so the ratios are probably similar so I guess you use the middle reliever because at least there's a chance for a win. Yeah one last thing from that game Emmett she and was great 10 strikeouts and then they announced after the game is again you get another start over the weekend against the Marlins too. Yeah he could be so Derek Cardi picked him up in that top champions league. I picked up Joey he picked up Joey Cantello, Boston and Emishian that was a huge one got him a win got him 10 strikeouts that was a really good one so and I could guess after that start he'll hold on to she and at least for the next one on the weekend and see how it goes but yeah he could be we've been waiting for it from Emishian like we've seen it before but this year we've been waiting for consistent success you know we certainly thought

20:49last year he was really good. He could end up being a September savior for some pitching staff so you grab off the waiver wire maybe going into this week and you get a huge week and you maybe maybe sticks right after that. PCA had another monster game he's at 41 and 35 I'm acutely aware of it because Derek and Riper just created for PCA and labor and he also has Henry Bolte so yesterday was not a good day for me as far as that goes. Oh yeah Henry Bolte was yeah it was was was pretty awesome last night and he's had some really big games lately like you see has really boomer bust like he had the three steals last night he had a two home or game a week last week and then in the middle sorry two home or and a steal so he said one huge game last week and a huge game already this week Henry Bolte someone who's really starting to interest me just we'll see where it all goes like his bab is really high. So like it's probably going to come down the batting average like you know in the long long run that being said he's the fastest player baseball I think there's someone else on the average sprint speed list that might be like fractions ahead of him right now but it's someone maybe it's not it's not it's it's it's a

22:05candy kid tolbert I feel like it's not even him I just like to average sprint speed but did not include MLB in my search and then you get a bunch of things that are going to help you with this like a cheetah I don't need to know your your average sprint speed yes but just society in general no but bolt it yeah he's been bolt a has been good lately after you highlighted how bad he was for one stretch he's turned he's since turned it back around that's why you're the age no he's back to first he was a guy named and I haven't camped yeah he's hitting lead off sorry Jeff my computer buffer here for a second he's hitting lead off yeah and and he's getting a ton of playing time I picked him up in that in that tote champions league bolt a raid it near the enemy regular season and I thought I was just going to pick him up for a few days yeah and then I was like I think that this guy might be

23:05explosive I think I should just hang on to him and see where this whole thing goes like kept him during their road road trip and then he had that one good game and I was like never mind I'm just riding this guy now until until the end of the season exactly exactly we're here with Fred Zinky on the road of our MLB podcast we're talking about some of the news of the day before we jump into our our mistakes for the season Kobe Mayo he's a cheat code against left handers even homer against a righty yesterday but it's he is an awesome hitter power hitter against lefties yeah he's got so it's you don't see these players as much like you always see the left-handed hitters who can't hit lefties you rarely see the right-handed hitters who can't hit righties because if you can't hit righties like how did you make it to the majors like most pictures are like any time yeah right like at some level Kobe Mayo hit righties because again he wouldn't have had good minor league numbers that got him this far if he couldn't hit righties but this year he's so it's just like all glass half full glass half empty with Kobe Mayo like he's played really well in the second half he's got 905 OPS

24:10um but he can't play against a lot of righties because on the season he's got a 513 like 513 OPS he's hitting 164 against righties this season in 219 at bats like he's unplayable against righties he's in the lineup tonight against a righty I get it the guy hit two homers last night so he just put him in the lineup and just see if he's just maybe gets really hot but like I don't know what I'm gonna do with Kobe Mayo next year I have a hunch that I'm just gonna want no part of him even though he's gonna finish the season with you know somewhere around 25 homers I think I was gonna want no part of him because I just I can't get myself to commit to a right-handed hitter who can't hit righties like what I can't get him just to play against lefties even though he's been really good at it like oh I think I better way to explain it I think it's more likely that he regresses he's not gonna have an 1135 OPS against lefties again probably not and it's just a playing time I mean the thing is there are certain players like they don't give you the counting stats they have like

25:15they have the complete extreme splits and that limits their playing time which I mean you never get the runs in RBI that you're hoping for I think about and I know it's not a one-to-one comparison but Will Benson the year he had a really good year at the reds OPS over 900 but he was extreme platoon and so he just never got to play every day and because of that he you know he just ended up like 50 home run 50 RBI or you know something that some of that nature I can't I can't quote verbatim the stats but it was that sort of sort of yeah dichotomy there and just a job on a job easy player yeah a jock Peterson is the guy who always comes to mind for me yes this year he's got 25 homers so you're like oh I got a 25 homer guy 50 RBI 55 runs scored like those are not totals that you want in a mix league he's hitting 235 so like yeah you got 25 homers but you just didn't get my chalice but at least jock Peterson he's a lefty who starts and hits lead off against righty so at least you can look at the ranger schedule and there will be weeks like if you're just talking about streaming him where you're

26:17like oh they face five or six right handers this week with Kobe Mayo the so the Orioles have been on this weird run where they face lefties more often than righties in the last like three weeks or so and I know that because I have him on the toe champions team two and I've been streaming him and I picked him up just for a couple days and then I was like oh when I see a string of righties I'll drop him and then they haven't had a string of righties I keep looking and it's like oh they just got a ready today but they got lefty tomorrow okay well I'll keep them I'll just bench them today and play them tomorrow like as soon as I see three righties or something in a row I'm gonna I'm gonna drop them and and it's gonna change like it's gonna come around well they play the blue jays this weekend the blue jays don't have any left handed starters so right like you'll probably drop him by then unless I look at next weekend there's a ton of lefties but well I just knew you and Derek too so you can drop with impunity because no one else is going to pick him back up you can always pick up later Derek could pick him up and burn me on him but that's that would be about it but you're right so um anyways but I think at least the left-handed

27:17platoon guy at least you can usually find strings where maybe they have a whole weekend's righties I'm never gonna find a string for the world with a whole weekend's lefties I don't know I just I like I'm happy for Kobe Mayo and he's he's coming around a bit more after you know his prospect status really dimmed but you got to hit righties you you've got to hit righties or I'll see your shorts like platoon bad and that's not useful in next week's Dylan Seas yesterday diminished velocity you know I'm no longer on prop points so our season is done so I didn't get to do the Dylan Seas strikeout prop that I almost always do whenever his start comes up so dodge that bullet at least a little bit there but a little bit of a scary outing there oh absolutely yeah I mean like he's in the Sai Young race you're gonna just you're gonna roll him back out for his next start no matter how bad that outing was um he shook he kind of shrugged off after the game and just said I'll just late in the season and you know it just didn't have my best stuff for whatever tonight we'll see uh his next start comes on the weekend in on Sunday it

28:19should be in Toronto you know in a in what we'll see if the roof's open or not but he really like in a like maybe more of a control environment um yeah we'll see if either way that he's just been so incredibly good this season that you're gonna have to just ride it out and rate to the bitter end but hope for my for my sake as a blue jay's fan because that pitching staff is running on fumes it's basically just just him now I'm pray for rain on all the other days so if we lose him we're really done hopefully it's nothing. Soriano goes tonight against the A's um kind of been treated on that one there to see how well he pitches he's that's been a I like that they added Soriano and I thought that was a good ad for sure uh I think in the long run it is so like so far with the blue jc hasn't been good they just so 436 year a 145 whip uh 24 to 13 strike or two walks are still walking too many batters he hasn't actually been always been trying to yeah my interest in Soriano anyways was more for next year like I'm interested to see what Pete Walker can do with him in a spring

29:21training um because he's had a lot of success with guys like C's who are really good pictures who walk too many batters um so I'm hoping he can do something similar with Soriano but I didn't expect it to happen overnight he he's not the braves in Tyler Malley um because that one then that somehow happened overnight somehow they got Tyler Malley from the Giants sat him down for one quick meeting and we're just like do this this and this he's like yeah for sure and now he's awesome yeah with all with all the advanced stats to back it up it's amazing yeah Yuri Perez what are we going to do with Yuri Perez next year he is on a negative role right now five five or more earned runs I think in the last what how many three starts at least yeah uh tough tough tough outing yesterday against you know you know and against the Mets it's not exactly like it's murderous roe coming up there against him either no he's going to be a tough guy to rank like going into those three starts uh he had a three 17 ERA so three 17 ERA in 23 starts he's over a strike out per inning uh he

30:21walks too many batters like that is a problem uh it's been a problem all year he's got to get that under control so that's going to be the your dilemma I think when you rank him in the off season is you know I mean our could could we argue that he's just kind of running out of gas late in the season yes absolutely right like he only threw 95 innings last year he didn't pitch the year before said 139 now so I could argue that that he's a good pitcher who just ran out of gas in the season but his walk rate his walks per night is four right now like I'm not drafting a number one or two starter who's walking four batters per nine innings uh which Marley we'd rather have uri Perez or Max Meyer currently not yeah okay so is Max Meyer in spring training like a full go like everything's good everything like if we fast forward like in spring training is Max Meyer like great he's totally good I that I'll take and I think uh no I think I'm going to take your

31:24repress I'm not a big uri Perez guy but I think I'll take him over Max Meyer Perez definitely had his backers in this year's drafts I didn't end up with him anywhere and I didn't get him when people dropped him and for about a month and a half I was really bummed because he was so good but he's we're back to that point now where he's kind of he's kind of a big risk so yeah I get that there he's just still 23 like his I don't know I think I think I won't have any shares of uri Perez next year and I think he'll go long before Max Meyer that's my guess I just there's a lot of people there who love uri Perez I find in the fantasy industry yeah well that we're dreaming he throws a throws hard I get it he came up at 20 I think he came up at 20 and had a 315 ERA like his first season so I get like then then that's it his status was cemented like the talent is there is but I don't know I think I think he'll go earlier next year then like I think he'll go as a number two starter fair enough let's jump in on a couple more players before we

32:28go to our main topic cases of Cesaro another dominant start yesterday top 10 starter in the meatball draft he was of the top 10 starter is he for you yeah yeah absolutely I this year he seems to have gotten rid of those two or three starts a year he's always had that just ruin everything they don't ruin it but they bump him down to a number two starter this year he's managed to to avoid that he's been not totally durable like 2024 he only made 12 starts but the other years he's gonna have three and a four with over 30 starts yeah I think he's a top 10 starter for next year it's just so hard to get the he's a little like it's like Dylan C's now this year Lazardo's like having a really great year but even in a bad year he's a 200 strike at pitcher and there's just not a lot of those anymore like he's gonna finish this year with a 240 strikeouts the previous year is 216 he's got a 208 in 2023 I just think when I project him out if I'm putting in 210 or 220 strikeouts he's gonna be pretty high in the rankings Kyle Harrison gonna get us start this weekend

33:33against the reds did you start him if you had him anywhere would and what would you do with him next year yeah so I don't and I wouldn't have started him after last week by the way he was one of the big reasons I'm still playing in tow wars because DVR had him and like DVR when I went back forth quickly on email on Monday and I said yeah like a couple of your guys and he's number one like just really had been great and then really let you down like at the wrong time like 13 earn runs last week DVR has not him in labor too right and then you've pushed ahead of him in labor and I'm sure that's a reason yeah so I would not I don't know if DVR started him in labor this week I would not have started him for a one-start week those last two starts were just so bad and then like for the Brewers to talk right away about like okay we need to shorten his starts or use mud of the bullpen or something but we're gonna have to use them less yeah I think I would not have used them I think going into next year like I don't think it's gonna like totally I

34:34know I try to be generally optimistic on Brewers starters so if the Brewers are optimistic on them when the spring training starts I think I will be too I'll be I'll be interested to see where he goes I know obviously wherever he went in the meatball draft he would go a lot later if we were dragged six round six round he and Logan three picks from each other so thought that was interesting that is really interesting I'm gonna like if he doesn't turn this around I think six round becomes ninth round Riley O'Brien Brew another Blue and other save he is the Midwest version of Paul C. Walde where he was great for you for four months and he is not so great right now yeah and it's like like in the real baseball world no one really cares because the Cardinals have kind of fallen out of the race and I know they're still like around but not really so no one really cares and he's gonna finish the season with about 40 saves and in that regard he'll look good but he hasn't pitched while in the second half his strikeout to walk rate on the season is 57 to 26 that is not a closer

35:38type strikeout to walk ratio so I can have some I don't know where I think Riley O'Brien for me next year is gonna fit in like not that high like I think I'm gonna I don't know I don't think I'm gonna project him as a like this guy's definitely gonna keep his job all season I'm I he might just he might be just okay and just got off to a pretty good start as the closer and they needed a guy I don't know I think I think when it comes trying to project players I think I'm gonna be a little bit tentative just she seeing how the shape of his season went and the strikeout to walk ratio like I don't know I I end up projecting him next year for just like 20 saves it's kind of saying like I'm kind of 50 50 as to whether he is the closer all year or doesn't even have the job at the end of April I view him as a take the discount guy you know he came out of discount last year yeah yeah yeah and because he I don't think he'll be very expensive I I think because of how we finished most people take close enough attention yeah and he's not gonna he's not gonna be that expensive but but there will be I'm gonna talk with this later with one of my regrets

36:41but there there's going to be 10 teams with no closer like no real closer when we dropped probably maybe 12 and then just because of that Riley O'Brien coming off a 38 or 40 save season is gonna go in like the 10th round like someone's gonna take them yeah I think even the 9th round like maybe wait don't we talk about I feel like a draft pool smarter now though and maybe they're not maybe I'm a true you know I'm saying it smarter that doesn't makes it so but there's some danger in that but I just think you get desperate you know especially in a 15 team league where yeah there's just we're in round nine or and there's there's managers with no closer and they're just like okay I like I've got to get one and I gotta be more comfortable about steering into that I feel like that that you're you're probably right and I think we're probably all prone to that positional scarcity in categorical scarcity I think we get caught up in that and that hey I'm not gonna I'm

37:44gonna put a pin in that because I think that's gonna come up in our conversation later about mistakes that we made this year so but I think you're right I think that we will get caught up in it maybe a little bit there yeah all right we're gonna talk about those mistakes that we made but first got to give you a quick note from our friends over at circa circa million eight and circus survivor are going big for the 2026 football season with $30 million in guaranteed prizes cash in this football season in Las Vegas with three circus sports contests entries are starting at a thousand dollars with no rake circa million 18 weeks of point spread action 128 ways to win winner takes home one million dollars circus survivor pick one winner each week last one standing wins 20 million guaranteed to the winners and finally circa grandissimo a massive contrast contest with a hundred thousand dollar entry enter in Nevada play for anywhere 30 million dollars guaranteed visit circus sports dot com slash contest for details also we are on the blue wire

38:48network it is true here are there ads you're listening to this podcast so I know you've got a curious mind here's a helpful fact that you may not know yet drivers who switch and save with progressive save over nine hundred dollars on average they make it super simple pop over to progressive dot com answer some questions and you'll get a quick quote with coverage options tailored to your choices plus you'll see which discounts you may qualify for like the online quote discount or savings for paying in full in fact 99% of progressive auto customers earn at least one discount see if you could save when you switch to progressive you'll feel good about making a savvy choice visit progressive dot com and see if you can enjoy a little extra cash back progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates national average 12 month savings of nine hundred and forty six dollars by new customer surveyed who saved with progressive between June 2024 and May 2025 potential savings will vary right now it's subway try the 499 sub of the day get a different

39:52six inch sub every day for just 499 each like neat ball marinara on Mondays tuna on Tuesdays and the BMT on Saturdays it's a different six inch sub every day packed with protein and your choice of chopped veggies for just 499 each or make it a meal with chips and a drink for just two dollars more but hurry it's only for a limited time and only its subway app participating restaurants prices higher in Washington, Alaska and Hawaii and on third party delivery add-ons taxes and fees for delivery additional hey it's Kelly rolling you may not know this but I have exema so I get how it can steal your time but why let exema take over when you can talk to your doctor about epglyss epglyss lubricism app lbkz a 250 milligram per 2 milliliter injection is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kilograms with moderate to severe axima also called a topic dermatitis that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin or topicals or who cannot use topical therapies epglyss can be used with or without topical corticosteroids don't use if you are allergic to

40:54epglyss allergic reactions can occur that can be severe eye problems can occur tell your doctor if you have newer worsening eye problems you should not receive a live vaccine when treated with epglyss before starting epglyss tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection paid partnership with lily respect your time ask your doctor about epglyss and visit epglyss.com or call 1-800-LilyRx or 1-800-545-5979 all right Fred you're a very good player but you're not infallible you've made mistakes this year I'm more fallible I've made mistakes too let's talk about some of our biggest groups of 2026 yeah lots lots of them every year um okay so my first group was and I tried to pick like I mentioned when we made our notes just for everyone who's listening though like I tried to pick screw ups that like have a point attached to them like I took a lot of Brent record this year I don't really do that as a screw up I think I was just unlucky Brent record got hurt like I don't think that was predictable really um so to me there's not like a like an actionable takeaway there

42:00these ones I think there's actionable takeaways I took pictures in the first round of half I would say maybe even more than half of my drafts so is that a screw up well I'm looking at the roto wire earned auction value calculator tariff school $15 Paul schemes 11 and Garrett crochet like minus $15 those were your first round pictures um so you didn't get more than $15 so far out of any of them I'd say that makes that a mistake this year not a mistake I made I didn't I didn't get any schemes but that wouldn't be that I but is that like a mistake because of the result or is it a mistake because it's like a bad drafting philosophy is it a bad is it a bad makeup I think it's more than we're here to decide Jeff that's for me I think it's more the former and thus I wouldn't categorize it as a mistake I would say it didn't work out if you know what I'm saying I have this argument with uh with Tom Kesseneck from the NFBC all the time uh because one year Clayton Kershaw

43:01got off to a rough start when he was a first-room pick I think he still want to say young that you're but he had a bad April and Tom was like I'm never taking a picture in the first round he still believes that to this day I think there's been plenty of years where first-round pictures have been great uh and have been worth their while the big three definitely were not worth their wild this year but if you but some people in the main event pushed up Christopher Sanchez at the end of the first round because they wanted that next picture that worked out just fine and in fact it helped you avoid landmines in the first round yeah so that's why I wanted to bring up some of these things is to have those discussions so when I go back and look at first-rounders um so let's get get get away from the top three because no pictures were going there so we'll start at pick four this is main event so we'll go from pick four to pick 15 the only players who earned have earned $20 between pick four and fifth pick 15 are Ellie Dila Cruz at nine and Fernando Tati's tuner at 15

44:03so it's so rich by the way I spent three months complaining about testing he says my first round pick yes for sure um so in there there are three pictures who didn't uh earn those values earned $20 and there's three four five six seven hitters that also didn't earn $20 so yeah you could totally make the argument that that it wasn't a strategic problem that I should be willing to go back to the well next year on Jacob Mizorowski or Christopher Sanchez or Terrick's table or Terrick's school yeah absolutely so you could argue and maybe and maybe I will like I said this is what I'm here to these are what I label my mistakes and then we can can talk them through and maybe they're not um yeah and the second round is full of some good ones and some bad ones from both sides too Christopher Sanchez you know good and Wendy has bad yeah I'm a moto good you know what I mean like like junior Caminero good like Guerrero bad like there's Switz and Mick's Jack C. Jarrero and Cal Rally bad right so I'm not saying that

45:09the hitters all jazz chism good Nick Kurtz bad just because of injury but um and that was going to end up being okay you know it was not a yet a traumatic injury it happened which we could say about Terrick's schoolable as well like he would have been good Terrick's schoolable would be worth more than $20 if he wasn't hurt earlier this season so the second round starting pictures though Yamamoto sale yes those were pretty pretty good in the end the industry separated there was this big pack like remember there was the big three and then at the start of draft season and then Sanchez kind of like almost just well though it's supposed to Yamamoto for but then Sanchez kind of passed him and then it was Sanchez but there was this big pack and it was all the Seattle starters and Hunter Brown and Chris sale and at the beginning like when we did the labor draft it was like a max freed was all seen there and when we did labor drafts and Col Reagan's yeah and we did labor drafts it was like I don't know that group it's just a pile of like 10 guys and like flip a coin and whatever but as draft season give that I guess give the the fantasy industry some

46:12credit because as draft season progressed like Sanchez and Yamamoto further separated from the pack and then sales started to separate from the pack a bit yeah those ended up being the right calls so yeah so they did we did we did figure out the right guys it wasn't wasn't worth it in that group to just be like oh they're all the same I'll just wait and I'll just take Col Reagan's I'll just take Max free I'll take DeGrom it didn't work so yeah exactly okay Jeff you've talked me back into it I will consider taking a pitcher in the first round I sure yeah and I think this should be a multi-year study yeah oh for sure yeah yeah and I tried to move some sort of like environmental change in the game right yeah yeah that makes a lot of sense for sure and I will say when we did our picture review of the pockets the pictures the low end aces were not a good pocket so when are you gonna take when are you gonna take your pictures unless you're gonna go full like I'm not taking pictures I'm gonna wait till round seven and then take five of them you could try that

47:13if you want but if you're not if you're not in that regard then then you maybe do I was just trying to debate the first round I think it'll be tricky I thought about this a little bit the other day that like I also think it'll be tricky because and I mentioned this a little bit with the first round earlier like because so many of the first rounders were bus we can't have figured I think who's supposed to be in the first round and then like should you draft a pitcher I don't know like you be like oh I don't want to draft a pitcher so I can what draft Jose Ramirez like yeah with this 11 home runs so far like also I can get 2020 Julio Rodriguez I don't know so it's gonna be interesting like okay I'm not gonna draft a pitcher in the first round okay then which hitters am I gonna take yeah right so you know I don't know I'll have to see some of it might be related to how the hitters in that regard to how to hitters parts out and maybe I will say I'm not taking a pitcher in the first round because I want to get Ellie or I want to get Tatis and I'll take a pitcher in the second round exactly exactly so yeah I could see that work yeah I would say like yeah

48:15so yeah I think it's it's it's it's fascinating to kind of dig into this a little bit more yeah I've got four myself but all so I'm gonna have you do all five yours and then I'll do my four after so let's do category number two this one I'm a little more firm that I'm gonna learn from because I've learned I haven't learned my lesson on this one but I'm going to slow down on investing early heavily in early catchers I always invest heavily in catchers they always come out as good values when I run my projections because I find the industry is like tentative on catchers there's probably maybe I need to give a little more credit there's a reason to be tentative on catchers like I have a lot of Cal Rally something Cal Rally that went really really really bad and I have some Shay Langaleers and you could say like oh that wasn't a bad pick like he's having a really good season before he got hurt but like that's part of the fear with the catchers like you're telling me a guy who's listed at 230 pounds who spends half the baseball game in a crouch has any problem like that's catchers that's not first basement that's not left

49:17fielders like that's catchers like someone would have a hard time convincing me that the fact that Shay Langaleers played catcher has nothing to do with him needing season ending knee surgery like he spends half the game crouched down that's hard on your knees so and he's a big dude so rarely see players moved off of other positions to preserve them if they're if you show good here but you see a catcher all the time uh case in point Ben Rice hasn't caught at all this year we won't get him a catcher next year uh Wilson Contreras his played hurt last season and really hasn't had the power fully come back he hasn't killed us he's been okay for us there Hunter Goodman had a trip to the aisle but he's been great otherwise Drake Baldwin had a trip to the aisle Sal Perez has finally fallen off yeah I'm kind of looking at there will Smith another trip the aisle uh I think yeah I think it's going to be an easy year next year to back off on catchers because like you said Ben Rice who would be the one like he's not going to be there uh as a catcher

50:21I think it's easy to project regression with Hunter Goodman like strike a rate super high um so like if you want to go all back in all in on hunter Goodman like have at it but it won't be me and then every other catcher on the air and auction value calculator right now it's $15 or less yeah so it's I think it'll be pretty easy next year to I think I'm just going to temper the playing time a little bit more last year the previous year like 2025 is a good year for catchers getting like 500 at bats um and doing well I think I'm just going to temper the playing time a little bit more for some of these guys and yeah just building a little more risk I don't know where that will leave me with catchers because I often go early and late and not much much in the middle well if I don't go early I'm going to have to go in the middle or or or do I make a plan to just get too late I don't know that's tough in a 15 team league yeah I'm looking at uh labor again because I have two solid catchers in that league and then that that worked out william contraris card carder jensen you went early early

51:23catchers yeah and that did not work out for half right hunter goodman way better than I thought Cal rally way Cal rally way worse yeah yeah uh yeah so I don't know rounds two and five and I went rounds four and 16 so that one early one one late see not what I'm pretty firm on though I think next year I think I'm going to act and even the players like I said goodman's a massive regression can't take the strike array but Dylan Dingler like we've loved him but he's only done this for a year so I'll probably like Dylan Dingler the advanced and Dylan Dingler slow down quite a bit lately yeah you don't have him so you don't realize it maybe as much as acutely but he's really slow down lately Paul and I was in bed to say yeah as much as they leave Hicks has slowed down a lot as well you know still hitting 288 but the power has slowed down a lot Gabriel Moreno has been good in the second half but that's the first time he's ever been really really good there's just there's a lot of holes you can poke in a lot of these players like you said William contraris isn't killing you

52:24but he's kind of underwhelming like when you drive to William contraris you weren't thinking you're getting the eight he's the eighth catcher so far this season you know card carder jensen's at his moment he hasn't broken through yet same hope as i was at 22 homers from a 60s you're homers catcher though i'll take it yeah for sure for sure but but it's not just struck out 150 times so from a you know i'll be careful not to push him too high next year though is the take away there yeah i think there's there's no obvious catcher for the first five rounds of your draft i think next year so so it's gonna be an easy year hopefully for me to this will be an easy year goodman will go in the first five rounds he absolutely yeah yeah he will he will i i think that the i think he's gonna be in a lot of boss articles but you're right i think he will go there especially if he were to get to 40 covers framber valdez was a guy that's on too many of your rosters it looks like there you said you ignored his second half collapse from last year tell me more yeah that's that's like just something that i'm gonna try to be careful of especially maybe with pictures more so than hitters because p-crow arms strong how to second half collapse excuse me last year

53:27james wood how to second half collapse uh last year but pictures i i think i just maybe need to be a little more aware of that like framber valdez in the second half last so first half bald as last year two seventy five year a second half five twenty uh strike out rate really dropped in the second half i just ignored all that when he signed with the tigers and i just thought i thought i don't know i just saw he just came out like just good enough for where's 80 p was i tended to have a lot of them and because i had a lot of late picks and there's like an early round six type guy i don't know i just saw years of him he's such a ground ball guy and i was like okay let's just look past the second half like he'll just go back to being the old framber the guy would have a good better one point one five whip and a a year or around three three years you know who you know who you know who else ignored his second half the Detroit Tigers uh they got the extra monster money that was a big country it was late in

54:30free agency there's really late in the free agent season and they just you know that there was almost like you know we're showing we're showing scuba we want to compete now but it was also like hey if we lose scuba we'll still have framber yeah yeah that's not working out whoops yeah uh not working out great it's basically like a number four starter like like the way he's pitched this year right so um i might be backing on him next year because it's year two of the contract if you're using the glenon glenon rick theory of don't get guys in the first year of a big contract yeah it's it's more for me it's more skill related like his k9 like in all his good years is like eight and a half to nine and this year it's six point eight so i just i'm gonna have to figure out a reason to believe that his strikeout rake can come back up like you just i don't know now where i could be backing on framber let's see where he goes and drafts yeah he's gonna go really late maybe i guess i can take a look at that but uh i'm just gonna try to be aware like when i'm doing

55:30my projections next year like if i see like a veteran pitcher and like the strikeout rake drop off and everything and you know the ratio is go up i'm maybe i'm gonna give a little more credence to that right don't hand wave it that's for sure all right he was supposed to i was gonna just last thing on him he was supposed to be like my safe guy right it was like oh you don't want to risk chase burns at that point in the draft you don't want to risk mizurowski who i did also draft a lot of but you don't want to risk him in round six you don't want to risk him slit learn round six they haven't done enough month in the majors so let's take reliable old framber old has right so he was supposed to be just the reliable i'm gonna get my three and a half e r a my one point two whip and my 175 innings and so i it's just all also rethinking like what the word reliable means on a hundred maybe not a guy who skills a little part in the second half just gonna be another that that topic will come back up uh and and when we get to my list there a little bit there all right yeah believing that t mobile park and save luiz castio and course field could fix

56:32a zikiel tovar was your next mistake so over reliance on park yeah just looking maybe at external factors over the actual player and i just i drafted a tovar in as many leagues as it probably any player and he's a bit long gone obviously off my rosters you have five 92 OPS this year um like he was awful the previous year and really in his career he's had one good season like he's done one season with an OPS over 700 now in what's basically four seasons i don't like count little like little rookie experiencer first year experience in 2022 he's basically played four seasons and three he's got an OPS under now under excuse me under 700 i'm just gonna like like i think i got a little carried away with like he's young course field like i'm gonna like really get fired up for a bounce back like i he had had 26 homers in 2024 and i think i had him projective

57:33for like 22 or something like that i probably got a little carried away there so i'm gonna look more at the player and not give as much credit yeah to the ball park the surrounding so Luis castio kind of same thing i was like hey half this game since in Seattle how bad can it be right exactly actually that that was what i did dodge that bullet i kind of saw like the decline in velocity you know the velocity decline the strikeout decline and just thought what's the next step here i avoided that yeah well go ahead well as i was gonna say and i've now that i've said it allowed comparing him to framer there like there's another guy where oh he's gonna be reliable i remember taking him in like around 13 or 14 i was like oh he'll be reliable is he gonna give you 175 innings like the home park will help just you know stabilize the ratio so that they're okay and uh yeah and he's got i'll get the 10 wins or whatever through it while it's i don't uh his eRA this season in team mobile park was 504 yeah there we just went up and spoke i should have been more looking at the fact that he's

58:37not a great picture anymore yeah exactly all right um that is your fourth one we got one more here and it's talking yourself into ryan walker at the bottom end of a closer tier something you talked about could happen next year with ryan lio brion ryan walker was that his predecessor actually the more i looked at as we were talking the more i looked at main event adp forget ryan lio brion going in round nine or ten i'm gonna say next year in the main event he goes in like round seven maybe around eight like so here so ryan walker was an adp of 109 like like he didn't even make it to the end of the eighth round in the end we got desperate for closers right and then and how to kindly janssen 114 he didn't make it to the end of the eighth round uh griffin jacks 120 that's the end of the eighth round like like it's amazing when you're in a draft and you're like i need saves and denna santaana 134 he went break by the end of round 109 carlos estivez 141 like these

59:42are main event adp's are smart smart drafters um brion abray who was gonna be a closer for like a month 154 so like like ryan lio brion's gonna go way before way before all these guys he's gonna 38 saves in a closers job going in the year jephothman picks 78 that's round six early round six like after his like very up and down season the year before um ryan lio brion's gonna go on like round seven in the main event because pishin gets pushed up and people need saves it's a 15 team league unless unless there's more teams with set closers than there were this year in spring training but they're more or unless the cardinals bring in another guy to be the closer next year that's possible for sure um anyways the way things stand he's gonna go really one thing i'm gonna try not to do is like sell myself on like just have to you know put too much lipstick on the pig right like sell myself uh you know that this this uh this guys are closer that's what he was ryan walker

1:00:42i was like oh he can do it oh he can do it he did not do it he didn't do it at all he did not hold the gun the way like yeah right so i'm gonna be i'm just gonna try to be a little more realistic with some of these players and i had better success this year getting guys like ryan lio brion who were going way later and therefore had way less invested in them and looking back i don't know might not have been that much worse bets than the guys who were going in round seven eight nine yeah i think and those are valuable picks that's the real takeaway from this year right you know you're you're that's a good hitter you're missing out on the good starting picture you're missing out on here yeah and if you're taking it for a shake a shaky closer uh it's just not the fun way to play fantasy baseball there um i i agree that's i think it's uh we have to relearn that lesson year after year after year i feel like there all right by by the way before we started as i was just to mention the the the the good hitters that went around ryan walker and

1:01:43kenley janson it's just a small pocket but it was lu kory seager lewis robert um trevour story and a you hay new swires um good get much worse of just bust after bust and then you mix in those closures it's just a bad run like a few picks before that's michael harris and it's like the end of the first round in terms of bust hit i mean you even go through adp every year and there's like bus bus bus bus bus you know what i mean like there's just so so many of them and even when you have a team of successful you like so many we keep talking about my top champions team with kyle tucker like kyle tucker and at the beginning the first round so yeah you make so many bad picks anyways let's hear jef's bad jef's mistakes this year where this is the abridged version for sure because there's so many of them here uh but i mean i've actually had some good teams in there too but uh for your wall your labor team especially yeah i don't have enough what could go right players you know it's you know i'm missing out on breakouts no cj abrims no james would no onil crews no you know

1:02:47missing out on those guys no jacke mizarowski for that matter in this case there i have some slitler at least that's good but uh i'm missing out on some very big breakout guys and i think it's because like oh man what he there's so many things wrong with this profile i'm looking at this i'm you know he can't do this you know you know he's not likely to do that and i think i'm missing out on some guys that are breakout guys because of that i look at like what james would did in the second half of the season last year with his strikeouts and i i i think i put too much weight on that and he he was available and a lot of you know he he slipped and drafts later we got in the draft season he slipped you know pca same thing i have a little bit of pca but i don't have nearly enough of him uh and i i think i'm missing out on that type of player so i think that's like such a good point and i think i don't think i think about that sometimes as much as i should but you're right when we think about what we did wrong we tend to just go back and see like garret crochet or cow rally

1:03:48or ryan walker and we're just like oh yeah well that's what i got wrong and i've done this before both in football and baseball go back and look at just the leaders on the earned auction value calculator and like like you said like how much jordan walker do i have how much cj brums do i have how much you're on albred sals Stewart and if i don't why not why don't i have james wood white white don't i have just some of them can be spielike draft spot like why don't i have jenny or caminero maybe i just wasn't in a draft spot where he took pocket where he tends to go but especially the booms like the ones not the round one two guys but the pca's miseroscie walker abrums alvard those guys were all readily available you could picture these are to dilland cease right you know these are affordable players that you can get you know and you just not i'm just not i have some i don't have a whole lot of either of those guys i have a little bit of exposure to each of them there i have some chase burns but not enough now check you know again i was the one that was

1:04:50arguing against chase burns in the late the late spring training you know hiccups there steered me away a little bit too um i'm not gonna lie it it weighed on me a little bit too much and maybe i'm too itchy panicky i don't know i think i might be there it's a it's a good point like some of the best picture values mames roski right and it's like like there was easy to poke holes in him if you if anyone wanted to during draft season haisers lazardo always has the blow up few blow up starts all i don't want him dilland cease he's like the good years you don't get to understriker it's with the good years the bad years the good years the better these were the guys who broke through like these were these are your top five pictures this year chris sale always like old and i don't trust him and things like that the so yeah you're right thinking about what can go right that's i think it's really good thank you not put you know i pushed up scarce position scarce player you know scarce position scarce categories too much you you talked about like Ryan walkers of he's a perfect example that we were just panicked about the closers like oh i just missed out on this guy i'll put polensia in the fourth round you know you know

1:05:54yeah you know but not just closers but position players especially i feel like this was the case you know look at second base you know at jazz chism goes in the middle second and second and third the two scarce positions kettle marty in the fourth round uh you saw a lot of pushing up of like you know neco horner is another guy like that like that pushed up a little bit too much there third base was a disaster in that regard i took mani michado and the third that was a terrible pick he's he's been better in the second half but if he took austin riley because he was scarce in the fourth round that was a failure michael garcia was a bust huge bust um and the list goes on like you know suarez was a disaster this year Alex breakman has come back a little bit in terms of value but it hasn't been great i mean just over and over there's a number of these guys like that yeah i think that's a really good point and we said during draft season like oh shortstop is so amazing that you just you don't need to draft shortstop like even you know you can do whatever you want because it's just gonna be so many good ones but not they didn't end up

1:06:58totally being that way like in general i think you're right like rank your players project your players rank your players and then draft the guys who are the highest in your projections and your rankings regardless of position and then you can fill in the positions later yes and there's the waiver wire and in some leads there's trades and guys add position eligibility and maybe you come across one kacy smith or is it yieldoran or something like that who you find on the waiver wire and he's eligible at like five positions and you're like perfect problem solved and i didn't have to dip down i guess it can at best can be a tiebreaker like if you have two guys rank the same sure drafts the second or third baseman um but yeah don't dip down your list and be like well i solve third base and it's not like there aren't misses later on there's plenty of misses but it doesn't cost you as much and meanwhile you've got that stud in the fourth round instead yeah you know and instead of having michael garcy in the sixth round you got you know you got you got

1:08:00a much better player like price harper was in the same range as michael garcy for crying out loud dilland ceas was in that same price now so it was from an anthony yeah i did that with my call garcy and a league you're right i did that in a league i was i saw him there and i he wasn't the highest ranked guy my list but he was like yeah in the top 10 and i was like oh i can solve third base right now yes i have like no garcy i solved so i should have just taken the high i don't know who the highest ranked guy my list of the time was be probably to better than my call garcy up so yeah just and i always say draft guys you believe in and you don't believe in someone because they play third base or second base like draft players that you're high on that you are like oh i'd love to get kev magonical i love that guy like i think he's great i think he's gonna start then draft him don't be like oh i'm gonna pass on kev magonical because he's a shortstop right i know he's third base eligible right now as well but like anyways uh you get kind of at the point like draft draft the guys that you believe in if you love zack netto and you think he's gonna have a great year next year he's still gonna ever fight shortstop this year like if

1:09:00you love him and think he's gonna be that in more next year then draft him don't pass on him for mani machado just because he's a shortstop in the machado's third base man exactly two many old players old too many old hitters in particular old hitters aren't gonna break out they're gonna your grass they're they're not gonna take that next step very infrequently does a 30 something hit a new level they're more likely to re regress they're more likely to kind of start doing that downward turn Freddie Freeman's hitting for average but he went month and a half without hitting a home or mani machado had sitting a really low average this year i have so much christian yellich this year i can't can't stand it um and in a yellich you get the added bonus to tie up utility spot there too you don't get breakout hitters when you get you know as and it's okay to have one or two old hitters but you should not have a slew of them you should not have your stable of them you shouldn't have like eight guys that are in their thirties yeah and i think again it comes back to projections and yeah project age to like have an impact on them that season and if it doesn't

1:10:00then whatever but in your projections project age to have some impact like you said Freddie Freeman's a great example he's still a really good major league player he's still gonna hit around 300 this year but you're not even gonna get 20 homers you're not even gonna get 70 rbi and that's sorry 75 rbi and that's from your first basement in a really stacked position you probably he might get to 80 runs he probably won't um yeah i so that's something that i think i've solved more the last few years so i'll be honest i was like a huge david or t's owner for years i would take him when he would because he played really lightness like really advanced ages and i kept taking him nobody wanted him because he was old and because he was utl only and i would draft him year after year after year and he would always exceed like even his last year he hit 38 homeruns like right i would you'd always exceed i'd always get him way later than he should have and then i found i don't know the or t's experience on so well for me every year that i just i wasn't digging non or t's guys

1:11:03enough when they were 35 and 37 and then i was getting burned by them and then the last like two or three years i've tried to really kind of pull back on on older players and i got burned by some yellowish this year for sure um but overall i've tried to back off on some of these older players and i'll take them but when i make the projections i try not to get carried away in season this is a little truff tougher here uh because it's less on the draft table but more like in season impatience with roles uh you got to do skills over roles and it's tough i'll give you examples uh jake of lats i've talked about this before draft him the very last round of al taut Wars very last reserve round of al taut Wars didn't get the rotation spot did fill in for jake up to gromm on his first turn turn the rotation didn't hold on to him turned out to be a really good closer this year could have been a huge win for me it was a huge win for somebody else same sort of same form same sort of thing there Ian Seymour did not have a rotation spot for a while in the

1:12:08rays was kind of muddled in his role but i'd like the picture i drafted him everywhere did i waited out no i did not wait it out um that cost me badly again just you know you know it that those are two moves right there in taut Wars that's probably ten points in the standings right there if i had hold up held on to those two guys yeah it's so hard i i know really hard really hard like i'm just looking at seymour stat line like at the end of april he had a six seventy five uh-huh e-ra and was working as a one inning reliever at the end of may he still had a four sixty six e-ra and was basically working as a one maybe one and two thirds inning reliever like you had to go you had to go pretty deep before you started to get um and then all of a sudden like it started to get better but yeah i'm like oh yeah the rays discovered him again that he's good and they put him on his back in the rotation but oh yeah could we also say that maybe part of your mistake was

1:13:13like if you dropped Ian Seymour maybe you should have been more ready to pick him back up i don't know because i do that sometimes like drop them and forget about a player after you drop yes or i'm just like i'm done with him the e-nc more he didn't work he didn't work but yeah rather than being like no no i'm going to be ready like as soon as the rays are like we're upping his innings because they basically decide his up his innings ready to be getting a tune um like i like i'm jumping back in you maybe you should have been more little more like i'm getting this guy back right now because he was probably still out there yep time and again this this thing comes up now it's not a perfect it's not perfect there's some people that you're probably right to give up on there and you can't hold everybody injuries happen you have to cut somebody to make it all work i get that but like so i picked up as marlene valdez the first time he got called up um and then he got he struck out like 80% of the time got sent back down um but then he got called back up and i missed like some of that hot streak there when he got called back up by the pirates and that happens you know the you know you know you know he's also kind of faded backwards at since then but

1:14:17you know the point being though is sometimes that guy has that talent has that ability we just have to write it out and you're going to get some good stuff out of them and you know you don't want someone else to swoop in after he figures it out yeah it's so hard though like yeah it's so hard because i i would say i didn't even get into waivers but i say one of my regrets is i felt like i grinded waivers really well in april and may and then i felt during junan junan especially the first half of july like i felt like i took my foot off the gas a little bit on the waiver wire and just kind of it was content with some of the players i had and then i missed out on like i don't know i just like i just missed out on some guys who kind of did you like say late made uh through junan july and then some of them have you know have turned out to be quite valuable we talked about Henry Bolte earlier like yeah i just felt like i i took my foot off the gas but did the thing what i was going to say is to have the space to get them you have to drop people that's true and that's a tricky maybe i should have been actually i'll say mine's different i maybe i should have

1:15:20been better at just dropping some boring guys on my team yeah maybe not guys where i love the skills but just they're someone where i'm just like oh yeah that guy's a full-time player like i should probably just keep him but he's not actually really productive right um yeah i felt like i felt like i felt like i took my foot off the gas as far as like it was really good early i got a j uing in a lot of leagues like that time of year but then then i got tentative and i wasn't dropping guys and i wasn't adding guys quickly and i missed out on some some young but hitters ampitors actually both hitters especially because it was a better year on the waiver wire for hitters val does fits two of these categories by the way he's also kind of a what can go right guy we're gonna hear everybody scold you in the offseason talking about his k percentage and low contact rate percentage and they're they're gonna be right about that i get that the batting average is always going to be a risk but how often do you find guys that have a two seventy iso at the big league right as a 22 year old not that many um you know you're gonna you know this is

1:16:21gonna be one of what if he does cut down on a strikeouts then what happens then what sort of player is he and that that's the what can go right part there so you know you you have to do your own research you don't have to listen to all the internet scolds because they'll be there um you have to do your own you i really recommend you do the deep dive some players if you're in serious leagues i know not everybody has the time to do it on every single player but if you find something you like in a player that's where you dive in deeper that's where you try to figure it out a little bit more too yeah and that's what's always so good of it the projection process is yeah you know and you know this by the time you're done doing it it's not just about whether you gave as merlin valdez 27 homers at a 240 average it's that you know why you gave them 27 yes 240 average so you can just come on a podcast and talk about him or write an article and talk about him but you can just say yeah gave him a 240 average because his strikeout rate was this and i think he could maybe improve on it a bit but it's still not gonna be great but he also just really walled the baseball so you're gonna throw it out you're gonna have an average exit

1:17:22velocity at 92 93 miles an hour you're probably gonna get some hits even if you strike out a lot so you know you know it's the process of coming up with the the numbers and then you just know the player yeah uh i'd one little corollary um i say i was gonna talk about how i overlooked speed yet again but then i looked like some of my best teams do that you know like i'm winning my ale homely right now and i'm pretty low in stolen bases in that league you know i'm doing well in labor and i'm low in saves and steals you know it's like i just just draft good players and you know i think you get into the overall contest mentality sometimes and you feel like you have to compete in every category and then you because you're focused on that you may be missing out on some just good all around players better players because you want to have that balance so balance for the sake of balance isn't always good yeah that's a really good point and again it goes back to draft players you like draft players you believe in like don't draft Ryan Walker just because you need a closer don't draft

1:18:23right you know like uh you know a bad player you think it's gonna be a bad player just because you think you could get your 25 steals like yeah draft players you believe in and you never like you can you can work waivers you can in some leagues you can trade but yeah draft players you believe in but yeah you're right you were gonna scold yourself on steals but in the end you got some teams doing really well without stealing a ton of bases yeah now of course you're in the NFBC you kind of have to pay attention the main event and main events different right like the main event compared or or the Rona wire online championship like those are different from just like like one off satellite type NFBC leagues like in those ones you don't have to forget win steals and say you don't have to finish on the top 10 yeah and also again it's not gonna be a perfect roster on March 31st you want it to be the best roster by the you know the best stats that you've had at the end of the season so you don't have to have that perfect balance and opening day either I think you know it is kind of a corollary to that you there will be waiver wire pickups you will be trying you know

1:19:24yes everybody else is competing for them but if you found a clear path uh to having a better team because you did this great you know one of the reasons why I think I have a decent labor team is because I didn't try to push that second closer you know I took better starting pictures better hitters in those middle rounds didn't chase um and when you don't chase better things happen there yeah I agree all right that's gonna wrap it up for this week uh copious other mistakes in the comments let us know what your biggest mistakes were on this season maybe I'll give us some inspiration for next week's podcast as well uh stay tuned tomorrow I'm gonna be hosting with Chris Welsh from fantasy pros looking forward to doing that thanks for listening to the roto wire fantasy baseball podcast have a good evening