Friday Mar. 6, 2026

He's been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel, and the Fox Business Channel.

His articles can be found on Market Watch, Seeking Alpha, District.com, and many other places.

He's the author of the weekly Best Docs Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Docs Now app.

He's president of Gunderson Capital Management.

Here is professional money manager, Bill Gunderson.

And welcome to the Friday, the freaky Friday Lemmings running off the cliff edition of the Best Docs Now show with professional money manager.

Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management, I'm here with Barry Kite, our chartered financial analyst.

I've seen this movie before.

The Dow right now is down 757 as the Lemmings running off the cliff, jumping into the water.

There's no end in sight to rising oil prices, and we're in a never-ending war that we'll never end.

And the Lemmings are probably wrong again, but in the meantime the Dow is down 718, 1.5%.

The Nasdaq's down 257, it is down 1.1% right now, and the S&P is down 91 or 1.33%.

We are off the lows of the day.

I guess that's a bit of good news, a little silver lining there.

The small captor down 2.33%.

And a couple of issues I see, the spike in interest rates has passed.

We continue today with the 10 year at 4.17 today.

But for me, I think the biggest issue that the market is worried about, and chewing its fingers about, and finger nails about, and I think it's probably wrong again.

Is there's no end to this rise in oil, which is up 9.4% today, which is inflationary, which is like a tax on the consumer, where at 88.59, do the Lemmings have it right.

So welcome to today's best stocks now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management, a nationwide fee-based firm heard in 12 major cities across America now.

And of course, a lot of cities and states in between through the podcast outside of our airwaves.

And of course, many followers on seeking alpha.

We do have a new article out there today.

Go to seeking alpha.com, follow Bill Gunderson, you'll get an alert every time we have a new article released.

We're hell-bent on getting two articles out per week this year in 2026. We're doing pretty good so far.

And we wrote about a major tech stock today. You can find that on seeking alpha.

Now, have you ever noticed Barry that there's a certain percent of investors? I don't know if it's 10 percent, maybe 20, maybe 15.

And somewhere in there that they're either all running one way on the greed factor, or they're all running the other way on the fear factor.

And that's really the idiocy of the market, but that that class of investors has always been around ever since I've been in it.

And once in a while they get it right, but not very often.

And right now they're all running the other way, which is fear.

Fear has gripped the market, and there's a fog hanging over the market right now.

Right. I mean, it's like, you know, the market tends to, we say it a lot, overreacting in both directions, right?

Whether it's to good news and going up too much or in bad news, going down too much.

You know, I think probably the one thing that's, you know, it seems like the one thing that's probably acting correctly,

at least for the moment, would be, would be oil, because I mean, you kind of expected right this.

The only difference is, I mean, we're looking at, you know, we were at $60 for a long period of time.

And we're, you know, about to approach 90, we're at $88.39 right now, and oil is up another 9 percent today.

But, you know, you're looking at, you know, essentially, you know, 50 percent gain, right?

In oil in a very, very short period of time.

A lot of times that, you know, tends to end up being an overreaction, even though we can't see it.

Maybe I'd not be able to see the light where, you know, where this is going to get resolved.

But I think it will, you know, as the days go by.

And that's the question you ask, have to ask yourself, has demand risen for oil?

No.

Has supply decreased?

No. There's a fear factor.

There's a fear premium that has been priced in to oil, which has been really sluggish for many years now.

And we seem to have plenty of it.

And right now, it's because of the straits of her mousse and one of the big oil producers in the world, Iran, under attack from the U.S.

And that is spiking oil.

Now, the market, does that make sense to jump off the cliff today?

And so everything stock, not really.

But, you know, that's the way the lemmings behave, okay?

And you have to ask yourself, is this a permanent thing or is it a temporary thing?

And yes, there is a sour sentiment in the market, and that's showing up in the stock charts.

And I have always said, nothing is sacred.

Nothing we own is sacred.

And I watch those stock charts.

And I feel pretty fortunate.

And I feel like it was the right thing to do.

We locked in a lot of very timely profits, you know, a couple of weeks ago, because I felt like, you know, a boy, they went up really fast.

That's when the lemmings were running the other way, see?

And then they all, somebody blew the horn and they all turned around and started running the other way.

And luckily, we got out right before they blew the horn and started running the other way.

And eventually, they'll turn around and start running back again.

And it'll be time to get back into some of the stocks that we sold for big profits.

So you can make money off the lemmings and off of the mentality, the herd mentality.

And the herd is almost always, almost always wrong.

Okay, the herd was running off the cliff yesterday.

And, you know, the herd is saying, oh, Trump's going to get us into a never-ending war.

And so where does that show up in earnings?

Okay, that's what, that's my bottom line.

How much will this affect the earnings of the S&P 500?

Well, you've seen sell-off in the Korean chip stocks, South Korean chip stocks, because of the fear of rising elevated oil prices for a long, long time.

You've seen the consumer stocks selling off.

You've seen high-priced drug companies that sell high-priced drugs sell off, because all of a sudden, the consumer is going to be paying more at the gas pump for a period of time.

And you have to ask yourself, again, how long will this last, is this temporary?

Are oil supplies going to be squeezed and drive up oil to $180 per barrel?

I don't think so.

To me, it's going to be transitory.

But we did have the Dow down 1.8 yesterday.

Software stocks had a really good day, believe it or not.

They continued to rebound technically.

The small caps are getting slammed.

I think that's mostly the rise in interest rates.

And they're more sensitive to rising oil prices, obviously.

A lot of them have thinner margins.

And they're also sensitive to, like I say, the rising oil or the rising interest rates, 4.15.

Silver and gold were down yesterday.

They're up back up a little bit today.

But I would say the biggest mover right now that has the market nervous, and I think it's a temporary situation myself.

That's this sudden rise in oil prices.

And why we have it?

The reason that we've got an accordion effect going on now where you have a lot of these tankers, they're kind of stuck in place.

They can't either unload or they can't go where they need to go to offload.

And so the storage facilities in the Middle East are filling up.

I think I heard one country today, so they're going to stop oil production because they just don't, they're running out of storage capacity.

So, you know, this is what it is. You create this accordion effect.

No, not much different than remembering the Suez Canal was blocked.

Yeah.

In a handful of years ago, I mean, there's a bottleneck.

Yeah. And at some point, right, that bottleneck is going to open up whether it's us escorting ships through the streets as we did, you know, years ago.

Or things just resolve themselves one way or the other.

I mean, every day we're degrading their ability to attack.

And so, at some point, that accordion effect is going to pass.

And, you know, prices are going to supply the demand potential, supply and demand mismatch.

We'll kind of work it so far.

Another big factor that people aren't pricing into this is China wants the Straits of Hormuz to be cleared.

Because China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil.

So, China has an interest in keeping the Straits of Hormuz open.

The US has an interest in keeping the Straits of Hormuz open.

And the lemmings continue to run off the cliff and jump overboard until, you know, it all turns around and goes the other way.

We'll be right back.

And we'll get back here to the second quarter of today's best stocks now.

So, we also had a weaker than expected non-farm payrolls that we actually had a contraction.

What do you think about that?

Yeah, well, I mean, it would concern me if they hadn't had some of these survey issues over the years.

I mean, it's one data point.

It is certainly a bit alarming.

I mean, you had the funny thing is just a mismatch between the ADP payrolls, which were good.

Yeah, which were good.

So, you know, it's one of these kind of mixed bag stories.

I mean, you know, unemployment edged up 4.4.

We had payrolls dropped 92K in February.

And the consensus was that we're going to add about 60,000 jobs.

So, you know, I mean, in reality, it's probably what we're seeing, you know, interest rates kind of kind of tick down a little bit on the 10 year.

Because, you know, who knows, maybe this adds a little fuel to the potential rate cut fire, I don't know.

Yeah, well, I think once the war, Kevin Worsk gets in there, may, you know, as the Jerome Powell's last day as the head.

I don't know if he's going to stay on.

I haven't heard that yet or not.

I think he is.

But then we got a hope for rate cuts.

But now you're hearing the word stagflation with, you know, just the opposite of what you want to happen where you have dropping jobs, numbers, and rising inflation.

That is a stagflation, stagnant economy with inflation.

And they're, they're basing the inflation story on oil prices that will never come back down again.

And like I say, oil's been pretty weak for a long, long time.

It was down in the 50s for a long, long time.

But all of a sudden you've got this war premium during the fog of war.

Eventually the fog burns off and there's more clarity.

But for now the fog of war has got a grip on the lemmings as they run off the cliff and jump into the proverbial lake.

Retail sales decline less than expected.

So that's good.

I mean, it's not showing up there yet.

But I got to believe that there will be a few months.

The consumer, you know, from what I understand, gas is up 30 cents per gallon.

So if you've got a 20 gallon tank, you're paying $6 more.

Does that really impact your spending habits?

If you've got a 50 gallon tank, you're paying $15 more.

Does that really, really impact your spending habits?

Now, I mean, look, there are certain industries like the cruise ship industry and the airlines who have very large exposure to energy prices.

So how long at last?

You know, I can't see it lasting a few weeks, really.

I think, well, prices will start coming down.

Trump said this morning that he's not real worried about.

It's just the price that you pay, a temporary price that you pay to get rid of an evil regime that has caused probably more trouble in the world than any other regime over the last 20 or 30 years.

I guess his son is at his son now that is kind of trying to take command.

I don't think he's long for this world myself, but I don't think Khomeini's son is going to go very far, but he's supposedly leading his right now.

His chances on...

His chances on Polly Mark have gone down.

His probability has gone down in terms of being named the next one, because I think they likely think that...

He's either going to get eliminated before the end, or it's not going to be an option.

Yes, his odds are right there with the Padres winning the World Series.

They're old for 57, by the way.

57 years they've been a franchise. No World Series yet.

Now, the other thing we're seeing that we've never really seen before is Arab against Arab.

Oh, we have seen that before, but not like this whole world turning.

You know, the United Arab Emirates was letting Iran keep a lot of money there.

And now they are considering freezing billions of dollars of Iranian assets held in the country.

That's something we haven't seen.

And the UAE, of course, they're part of the Abraham Accords,

are also considering a financial crackdown on local currency exchanges used to save money outside of formal banking channels,

as well as possible maritime actions such as seizing Iranian ships.

And this is coming from the United Arab Emirates, you know, which is a neighbor of Iran.

And in the meantime, Tehran is targeting US military bases in Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates.

You know, this other thing that's kind of surprising is this invasion by the Kurds, ground troops going in,

and Trump kind of saying, hey, have at it.

Yeah, you know, they're border. I was looking at this on a map.

They're borders only about five things, like maybe 550 miles from Tehran.

Yeah.

So, you know, in terms of them, you know, making that push,

and they've been once fighting Iran or some form of fashion for a long time now.

So they're motivated to go in, and they're not proximity-wise,

not the farthest from Tehran.

Yeah, exactly. And in the meantime, these big shipping companies,

MERSC, we see plenty of MERSC ships around here.

In Hapog, Lloyd, we see plenty of other ships around here,

and our Charleston port have suspended key Middle East shipping routes in war fallout.

So there's also going to be a bit of a supply chain constriction,

which could cause a little bit of inflation, too.

All of a sudden, products could go up in price because of a shortage in supply.

They've suspended several services, including its Oman Gulf Shuttle,

its upper Gulf Shuttle, and routes connecting Asia with the Arabian Gulf,

and India, and the Middle East, with the Mediterranean.

A new service will begin operating, however, to ensure continued reliability

and operational stability, the company said.

Now, you know, it was just a short while ago that we were all hot and bothered

and worried about Venezuela.

How long did that last?

Now, obviously, Iran has a much more powerful army and strategic

strategic place in the world in terms of, you know, with the street there.

And more potent weapons than Venezuela has.

But the US and Venezuela are reestablishing diplomatic ties.

And don't forget, that's a fountain of oil that has been untapped in recent years

with huge potential, which kind of defeats the theory that oil prices

are going to be elevated for a long, long time.

It just seems to me like there's a lot of areas that one can tap

in order to keep the supply flowing as Brent Crew, that's over in London,

tops $87 as the Iran War puts the Straits of Her Moose Disruption in focus.

We'll be right back.

This is Bill Gunderson, thank you for tuning in to today's best stocks now, best inverse funds now show.

I put several hours of research in during the wee hours of the morning each day

to bring you the very best cutting-edge stories that I can.

To get two free weeks of my newsletter, go to GundersonCapital.com.

To talk to us about our fee-based only money management services,

call us at 855-611-Best.

Now, back to the second half of the show.

And welcome back here to the second half of today's best stocks now show.

Well, speaking of the prediction markets, how high can oil rise this year?

The prediction markets price a possible $180 peak.

Well, that's a 17% chance of that.

99% chance of it getting above 90%.

Okay, we're at 86.25 right now.

So they think the probability pretty high, 99% to get above $90 per barrel,

79% to get above 95, and to get above $100 of barrel, 62%.

So go ahead, place your bets.

Go over to Kowshi, or the other one, and place your bets on how high can oil go.

This year, Trump downplays rising gasoline prices as Middle East conflict,

pushes pump cost higher.

And we have the strategic oil reserves, but I don't think he would tap into that.

Gasoline pump prices have reached their highest level since 2024.

The national average, it just crashed through $3.

Now it's $3.32.

27% this week.

And look, I was around in the 70s when the oil in Bargo by Iran.

That's how long the Ayatollah was around causing trouble back then in the world.

And I think it's going to moderate here somewhere 85 to 90,

and then start going back down.

I know that I talked to somebody in the refinery business,

and he said, we make our most money when oil is making huge moves.

And the refiners are able to play that to some extent,

and you can look at a stock like Valero, and see that in action right now.

Valero's been hitting new highs recently.

And there's other ones.

Well, if we look, if we just check in on those two stocks today,

we've got CVX, which, yeah, you know what,

they're not moving as much as oil is,

but it is hitting a new all-time high.

It's $379 billion.

It's up 10 cents today.

Valero, on the other hand, is flat today.

But Valero's hitting a new all-time high.

It's now a $68 billion company.

Marathon, MPC.

I don't know. It just seems to me like you'd be buying these stocks around the top.

Right. Then I'll buy them here.

MPC is up $1.48 today to an all-time high.

Marathon's now a $65 billion company.

And the big daddy of them all is Exxon.

It's $633 billion.

Exxon is up $1.17.

They've pretty much flattened out here now for the last three or four weeks.

As I think they had already priced in this move to where we are now,

for these stocks to go higher,

it's going to have to remain elevated for some time.

And oil prices would have to go even higher than where they are.

I'm not...

Wouldn't be that excited about buying oil stocks now.

Unless you agree with the lemmings that are jumping off the cliff today.

Or if you think it's going to 180.

Well, which would mean that it should be all over the drillers

and the guys in the Permian Basin.

And that, let's just take a look.

Let's see, what would be a good little one to look at?

Yeah, we can look at LNG.

Let's see, now it looks a lot better.

There's more of a shortage on LNG.

That becomes more of a structural problem than oil does,

because of Europe's policy on energy,

which has created their big bottleneck.

And you've got shinier breaking out to a new...

Almost a new all-time high today.

54 billion.

I'd be more interested in the liquid natural gas stocks.

And LNG obviously is the big daddy there.

You've also got APA.

I was going to say that.

It's actually a new high today.

The one I was going to ask, yeah.

They probably have some room to run yet.

The LNG, which are different from the heavy crude oil.

I don't think the tanker stocks...

I think they're probably at the top.

And they're starting to recede.

And you know what?

They're kind of a leading indicator of the oil sector.

The tanker stocks are the most sensitive to oil and shortages

and the Straits of Hormuz.

And it looks to me like those stocks have peaked

and are now starting to sell off.

So the easy money there has been made.

And the smart money is saying that this is going to be a transitory issue.

Now I will look at the...

We're done really.

This earning season after today will be pretty much over.

We got Costco reported yesterday.

Marvell, an important chip stock reported yesterday.

And of course we had Broadcom report this past week.

So there were some important ones.

And I'll see where we stand right now on the earnings estimates.

I got a hunch that if anything they went up a little bit this week.

That's just my hunch.

We shall see.

Meaning the market has gotten more reasonably priced during all of this.

I know that my 12 month target price...

I remember when it was single digit upside potential.

Now it's a mid double digit upside potential over the next 12 months.

And the S&P, it's about 15-16%.

That's the highest it's been in quite some time.

Yeah, it went from basically fully valued for a while there.

It's on the reasons why you were taking some gains at the end of October.

My flag to a yellow flag from an orange flag, which is one before red.

And I went up to yellow because of the upside potential.

But we still are.

I would say the forward PE is somewhere in the 21 area.

Somewhere in that area, which is still elevated.

That's why I don't have a green flag, but you may see one here.

Now, here's some big news that may go unnoticed here.

All of a sudden where there were two, they're all of a sudden is three.

And I'm talking about the weight loss drug, GLP1.

Pfizer today got approved by China.

And Pfizer stock is not even moving at all on this news.

But there is now a third one.

And Lily stock is pretty weak right now.

Number one, it's an expensive drug.

And by the time you get done putting gasoline into your car,

you may not have any money left to put GLP1 into your stomach.

Just don't buy the chips, lay off the chips for a while.

So that's a weak chart.

There's another kid in town.

And whether it gets approved in the US or not remains to be seen.

But I think for China to approve Pfizer's drug, what's this tie between China and Pfizer?

As soon as you said that story, I was, you know, I'm just starting to think about, you know, COVID and the vaccine.

And I'm like, yeah, when you said it, I said, that tracks.

It seems that seems like it makes sense.

Something fishy, Albert, though, Borla CEO of Pfizer.

And now watch it with Moderna gets GLP1.

We really know.

But the Pfizer connection with China is very fishy to say the least.

Yeah, I could literally, as soon as you said it, it's the first thing that popped in my mind.

Yes.

Okay.

So we have that.

We have another, a third one.

Now, let's see, we've got to get to some earnings here.

No, well, let's look at Bitcoin.

You know, Bitcoin has proven itself to be when there's a lot of money sloshing around like in 2021 coming out of COVID.

You know, it's the bite is on.

It's totally risk on and everybody's, it's a greed trade.

It's not a fear trade at all.

In fact, it shrinks, it crumbles, it gets sold off.

That really hurts if you've built this really on a strategy that people are just going to keep buying and never sell their Bitcoin,

which is pretty much how a pyramid scheme works.

The whole house of cards comes tumbling down at the foundation when you see this heavy selling.

And the lemmings running saying, you know, I never agreed to hold onto it and never sell it.

Whereas a lot of the big whales, that's kind of, they have a little pact amongst them when you're not supposed to.

It goes diamond hands.

Yeah, but I think that's out the window and we're finding out that it does terrible when fear grips the market.

I have no appetite whatsoever for Bitcoin.

Okay, we'll be right back to talk about Rocket Labs, Adobe, Costco, and Marvel.

And welcome back here to the final segment of today's and this week's best stocks now show on this freaky Friday.

We've got, if you look at the S&P now, year to date, it's down 1.2% for the year.

With, you know, what, 10, 8, 11 weeks gone by, something like that.

We're down 1.2% on the S&P 500.

And yet the earnings estimates have gone higher.

We started the quarter with estimate gain of 7.2% and as we get very close to ending this earnings season,

we're up around 13 to 14%.

So the earnings came in much stronger than expected and yet the market went down.

So what does that do?

That narrows, that brings down the multiple in the middle there, the PE ratio.

And it also brings down the forward PE ratio.

So there is a silver lining.

Now the market is calculating whether wrong or not that earnings are going to be ratcheted downwards.

I haven't seen any sign of that yet.

But it will show up in companies that are heavily dependent on crude oil, chemical companies, obviously, cruise ships, airlines.

You may see some ratcheting down of those earnings and those stocks.

But it would probably be more than offset by the rise in earnings estimates.

And the oil stocks.

And the missile stocks.

So I don't know that this has much of an impact, which I always look someone asked me the other day.

What do you think about the junior defense stocks?

And I said, well, they will be showing up in my top 300.

If they're in play right now, they'll be showing up.

But I think a lot of that's probably already been priced in.

B-A-E-S-Y in the UK is probably one that is still in play.

And the one over in Israel has been doing very well.

There's a smaller defense stock over there.

Well, and you mentioned yesterday, I think the biggest disruption could be some of the stuff that's needed for chips or memory.

In terms of those, you rattled off some of those different chemicals that come from the Middle East and go to places like South Korea and others.

So to me, that's one of the things that probably could potentially have a bigger impact than even the oil aspects, simply because at some point,

I think the oil side can find other paths to go or other drilling or especially here where you can turn on fracking pretty quickly in terms of bringing production up to speed.

So we've got some dials to turn if that's something that lasts long, but not on the chip side of things.

We already have a shortage there.

Well, there's news rocket lab. We own rocket labs, and that would be one I'd be interested. They're actually profitable.

But during a time like this, it's considered more of a risk on type of stock.

But it completed its second mission in a week as its launch cadence picks up.

And if you're looking to get into the SpaceX sector of the market, rocket labs is definitely a picks and shovel stock in that sector.

I haven't looked at a chart of rocket lab in a while. Probably worth a look here.

RKLB. It's held up just fine. They manufacture rockets and spacecraft intended to get to orbit, remove barriers to commercial space, and they're profitable.

They're one of the few profitable space stocks out there.

And in more news about SpaceX coming public, if you look at that chart, why do that big move in rocket lab is because of the idea that SpaceX is coming to market, which could help add extra evaluation to rocket lab.

Yeah, I mean, we'll see what kind of multiples they give SpaceX. And of course, being Elon Musk, he's going to get enormous multiples.

But that should impact the rocket lab because you'll take a look and say, wow, rocket labs is a lot cheaper and they've got relative value.

They have a lot going on right now. Okay, the other one that's in the news right now is Costco.

Costco has a very strange year end and they just reported their earnings today. Costco, let's see how it's reacting today.

Now they're one that may be squeezed a little bit by higher oil prices because they have to transport everything to their stores.

Costco was down and now it's up 1.3%. It's a $441 billion company.

The Issaquah Washington based company is up. Their sales were up 9%. That's the best quarter they've had in a while. They've been running it about 8%.

They had a 9%. I think it's a Dubai chocolate. I noticed that. It's everywhere. I can't. It's every.

I go. Yeah, it's a good box. Yeah, they got about five different ways to do Dubai chocolate.

They have a whole pile of Dubai chocolate. I didn't even know. Does it come from Dubai? What's the story on that?

It's pistachio. To me, I mean, I love pistachio. I like chocolate. But you know, in terms of putting those two together, I don't see what the reason.

I bought a box of it and it wasn't like knocking my socks off. But I even saw. I was somewhere they had a Dubai chocolate milkshake.

How do you keep it from melting in Dubai? That would be my question. Yeah, I don't know. But Dubai, all of a sudden, is a big chocolate company like Switzerland. It's like Swiss chocolate, I guess.

So anyways, Costco is up 1.5%. Adobe is getting an upgrade. I don't like Adobe. But I will say as I look, you can look at the software sector.

We called it when it started to turn and it went into a number four downtrend for quite some time. For really a couple of months, it got hammered under that false narrative that there won't be any software stocks left when AI gets there.

When AI gets done with them, maybe some were going to be hurt. Yes, definitely. But I don't see it having the big impact that the market was pricing in and all of a sudden, you've had a pretty good rally.

The software stocks, I pointed out a few weeks ago that they had bottomed. We got back into one that is our favorite in that group. I'm even seeing sales force with the pretty healthy chart here and Crowdstrike and others.

Four week trial to the newsletter, the live trades, the app, Gundersencapital.com to talk to us about our four products.

Five, actually, we have five products at Gundersencapital. That's it. They're portfolios that we manage and they have different risk levels. Call us at 855611best, 855611best. Have a great day and have a great weekend, everybody.

This show is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Bill Gundersen or clients of Gundersencapital management may have long or short positions in stocks mentioned during the show.

Best performance is not indicative of future performance. Gundersencapital management is a fee-based registered investment advisory firm. All accounts are held at Charles Schwab. Schwab is a member of SIPC in FINRA.