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Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/LIN or download the Kalshi App and use code LIN to sign up and trade today!Bob Thompson, Senior Portfolio Manager at Raymond James, explains why he believes we are in the middle innings of a commodity bull market cycle, with the easy money already made in gold and mining stocks but significant upside still ahead as generalist investors have yet to rotate into the sector.*This video was recorded on March 3, 2026.To get 5% off of your CoolWallet purchase, use my link: https://www.coolwallet.io/discount/davidcwSubscribe to my free newsletter: https://davidlinreport.substack.com/Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/510WZMFaqeh90Xk4jcE34sListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/the-david-lin-reportFOLLOW BOB THOMPSON:X (@bobthompsonrj): https://x.com/bobthompsonrj"The Gold Digger" Newsletter: https://Miningwealth.ca "Stock Market Superstars" Book: https://www.amazon.com/Stock-Market-Superstars-Secrets-Canadas-ebook/dp/B00378L7QS?crid=2A563KFB3BGXX&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.oUxOIzuMDabINSgJAbH_ZmqNkejmE5AlJ73-w-s-6zqOEcHXqQXTZO6R0xTa8vpmTJmCBa8h3T0vs3i4qlL8qQKq0TW4WLFIA3DIhDNVaV4.3gkEQnQGth0mG8inkV2_bsRi0Yg-f4Xe7MX2nc51CEQ&dib_tag=se&keywords=bob+thompson+traders&qid=1772647036&sprefix=bob+thompson+trader%2Caps%2C156&sr=8-2FOLLOW DAVID LIN:X (@davidlin_TV): https://x.com/davidlin_TVTikTok (@davidlin_TV): https://www.tiktok.com/@davidlin_tvInstagram (@davidlin_TV): https://www.instagram.com/davidlin_tv/For business inquiries, reach me at [email protected]: This video is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.The views and opinions expressed by guests are solely their own and do not represent the views of this channel. Any forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.This channel may include sponsors or affiliates. Their inclusion does not constitute an endorsement, and the channel is not responsible for the performance, claims, or actions of any sponsor, affiliate, or third party.No content in this video should be interpreted as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or assets. Investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.0:00 - Intro.1:40 - PDAC conference sentiment4:35 - GDX and mining rally8:05 - TSX vs. Dow10:46 - USD14:39 - Short-term sell-off19:32 - Energy24:03 - Canada’s top traders27:32 - ‘The Mining Clock’#investing #stocks #gold
Nobody is looking 18 months out, right?
Everybody's worried about what's happening today,
what's happening next month, how do we make money this quarter?
It's hard to be patient, but suddenly,
Uranium went from 20 to 120,
then that was the same in silver, right?
So ultimately, where are we in the cycle
and let's close off on your mining clock?
What is that and how do you read that?
Yeah, I think the mining clock is...
Another day of extreme volatility on Tuesday and March 3,
the Dow is tumbling 250 points.
On the back of Iran's conflict,
that's escalating the gold price.
Interestingly, it's also down about 4%.
We'll talk about that.
We'll talk about the future of gold silver and commodities,
where the next guest, Bob Thompson,
senior portfolio manager at Raymond James,
is this the top of the cycle?
We'll find out with Bob, who's measuring cycles,
very closely, and he's made a number of very correct calls
in the past with me.
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Bob, welcome to the show, good to see you.
Hey, great to see you again, David.
I think we first talked seven or eight years ago,
so we'll reveal a little bit about what we talked about then.
It's a good talk to you.
Absolutely, you made a number of correct calls
in the last couple of years
since we've started working together,
including calling for higher mining share prices,
higher uranium, higher gold and silver.
Obviously, they've come to fruition.
The timeline varies depending on when you've talked about it,
but generally you've called the direction perfectly.
You already get your tick on what's next.
I'm here in Toronto, as you can see,
the audience can see the background
is different from a usual audience,
and so a background, usual background, rather.
And so the PDAC is the world's largest mining conference.
People have used sentiment at this conference
as a gauge for sentiment overall in the mining sector.
One of the pieces of feedback I've gotten,
especially online, I read people's posts on Twitter
and other social media about how they feel,
is that this year being so highly attended this conference
and so populated by what people would call tourists in this space,
new comers in this mining space,
new investors from the retail side
that may not have been here before
or may not stick around, they're called tourists.
That may signal a market top.
The fact that it's probably the most attended PDAC ever,
that to some people is a market top indicator.
How would you respond to that?
You know, yeah, I'm all about sentiment.
I really am.
I pay a lot of attention to sentiment
because you usually want to be on the other side
of the boat for where everybody else is.
This is an interesting one though.
As you said, PDACs, a lot of people go into PDAC,
a lot of people seem to be interested,
but you know, I don't know any generalists
that have any money in the resource sector.
I talked to hedge funds here in Vancouver
who do marketing, you know, resource hedge funds,
and they said they've never had more meetings
with generalists about maybe investing in their fund.
And I said, well, how much money have you got?
They said nothing.
Everybody's kicking the tires,
but they haven't invested anything yet.
So, you know, it's an interesting scenario.
So to me, that doesn't sound like a market top.
I know the sentiment's great at PDAC
and the sentiment's great in the sector,
but I just don't see generalists investing.
And you know, Goldman Sachs recently did a survey
to their ultra high net worth clients,
over $100 million accounts.
And they found that the average allocation
in those accounts was 0.2% to gold.
So it's just people aren't there yet.
And I think one of the reasons for it
is too much other action in stocks, right?
There's AI stocks, there's other tech stocks.
There's the MAG-7.
And those are still sucking in a lot of capital.
And we have to get this rotation.
And that's what happened back in 2000 to 2002.
You got the rotation at a tech stocks
when they started to collapse into resources
and then it lasted for a few years.
I don't think that rotation's happened yet.
Maybe people have put their foot in the water
to see how warm it was.
But nobody's really jumped in yet.
And so it's an interesting scenario.
2.5% of the S&P 500 is energy.
And that's it in all time low.
So it's telling you that people
aren't investing in energy stocks.
There hasn't been a rotation.
So I'm still pretty excited about things going forward,
but I'm always wary of sentiment, as you said.
The generalist hasn't come into the space yet,
but the GDX, which is a Venec gold minus ETF,
is up 164% since last year.
So who's been in the space?
Who's been driving that up?
You know, it's fascinating.
It's up until four or five months ago GDX
was in net redemption.
So it was going up in value,
but the number of units was being redeemed.
So most people were taking that as an option.
So I don't even know how that's mathematically possible.
That it could go up that much.
And the number of shares goes down, but it happened.
Some money started to come in in the last few months,
but not a lot.
Now, you know what, this is interesting.
Probably the biggest precious metals hedge fund here
and sorry, not a hedge fund.
The precious metals mutual fund
and the best performing over 25 years here in Canada
was in net redemption all of last year.
Every month's last year, net redemption.
Every time he went out and he was up 150%
or whatever, whatever the index was up.
Net redemption every single month.
And it's crazy that people just don't believe in this.
I don't know whether they're taking profits
and buy on more Nvidia or buy on more Mag 7 stocks
or whatever the case is,
but the money doesn't seem to be coming
into the sector a lot.
But the fact that it's gone up this much, the GDX,
what does that mean for the entire mining sector?
Now, individual mining stocks have also done quite well.
So it's not a case of just people
are piling into ETFs and funds.
Can you say the same for individual equities as well?
Have investors looked at individual stocks
with as much enthusiasm as they have with the index, you think?
I think the easy money's always made
at the beginning of the cycle.
And with GDX and SILJ, which is the Junior Silver Retriex,
I mean, we were heavily buying it back in February of 2024
and it was $8 at that time.
It's 35 today.
So I think that the easy money gets made
at the beginning of the cycle and from here on in,
I think it's gonna be a lot more stock picking.
Gotta be a good stock picker.
Pick the best projects that are gonna come to fruition,
and start mining whatever the case is.
And I think that's the case in most sectors.
I mean, we were talking uranium a few years ago.
You know, Camico was $10 or $12.
It's $170 today in Canadian dollars.
I mean, that's a, you know, 12 bagger.
And, you know, I don't know how much more
the stocks go up.
Is it gonna go, if it goes another double,
that's 24 times from the bottom, you know, it could happen.
But I think, you know, a lot of the easy money's been made
and now you're gonna have to be a good stock picker.
So, but then you bring up a great point David
about some of the individual stocks going up.
You know, a lot of your audience probably has never
heard of the TSX venture, right?
The TSX venture here in Canada is a small index
that nobody pays attention to.
Even the generalists don't pay attention to it.
It's an legitimate venture capital market
of the Toronto Stock Exchange.
You know, it was up over 60 last year,
but it's still down 65% from its high in 2007.
So, only a little bit of capital has to come into that market
to make these things kind of explode on the upside.
So, volumes are picking up.
These volumes were very, very low.
When volumes are low, nobody cares.
It doesn't take much for stocks to go up.
So, we've had some good runs in these stocks,
but, you know, I think, you know, 3,200 back in 2007,
it's barely over 1,000 right now.
So, it's down, still down 65%.
That means there's some good room here.
And Toronto in general, you know,
where we can talk about this more later on,
but, you know, the S&P 500 is at a good run.
I think it's time for Canada for the next few years.
And few people, you know,
pinpoint this, this number here in 2007,
the TSX and the Dow were the same level in 2007.
In 2011, the TSX was about 20% higher than the Dow.
You know, today, the Dow is at 50,000, the TSX is at 32.
So, you know, everything in the market
shows the reversion of the mean.
And I love when things, you know,
get out a whack by two or three or four standard deviations
from the norm because usually you just have to take a position
in whatever, in the opposite of whatever that, you know,
anomaly is.
And then you just wait and you be patient.
And, you know, I think it's pretty easy in the world.
These days, to actually do better than most people,
it's just a time horizon.
But yeah, I see your chart up here.
You go back, I think, to 2007.
Let's do it.
2007, yeah, Dow is up 305% TSX.
TSX is up about 189%.
Right, right.
So, and you see, you see in 2007, they were the same, right?
And then you see in 2011, it was higher, right?
The TSX.
So, you know, these cycles tend to go on for a decade.
You know, if we were talking in 2000 right now,
the chart would look very, very similar
to what we see right now.
And if you recall, in 2000, everybody was running
into the tech stocks.
And from the high in 2000, the S&P did nothing
for 12 years, 12 years of zero returns.
Just 2012.
Stepping away from money for just a minute,
do you think looking at this chart,
it indicates anything to you about economic growth disparities
between the U.S. and Canada since 2007?
I think so.
That's part of it.
But the other part is valuation, right?
Do you look at the U.S. market?
And it's valued for perfection right now.
So, it's in the top 1% of its valuation
throughout the last 200 years.
You know, I don't think that gives a lot of upside.
I'd like to invest in things where,
you know what the secret to happiness is, David?
Low expectations, right?
So, you'll always be happy if your expectations are low.
Expectations of Canada were very, very low
over the last couple of years.
And the Canadian market has started
to severely outperform the U.S. market.
Bob, you told me offline that the single most important
variable to look at when evaluating the future
of the mining and perhaps even just commodity sectors overall
is the U.S. dollar.
So, tell us about the dollar.
What's next?
And I think that's for any markets, not just commodities.
Sure, you know, and here in Canada people say,
oh, well, that means the Canadian dollar
is going to go up versus the U.S.
And I say, no, no, I'm going to talk in Canada U.S.
I'm talking the U.S.
against the basket of currencies, right?
The Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, the British pound,
the euro, the Chinese one, et cetera.
So, the DXY peaked back in, again, 1999, 2000.
Pretty similar to the levels that it was a year or two ago.
Then we had everybody was invested in the U.S. dollar.
Nobody wanted gold.
Central banks, it sold a lot of their gold.
They basically held U.S. dollars as the reserves.
And then the next 10 or 12 years that the U.S. dollar
declined fairly substantially versus all these other
currencies and commodities went up.
But everything went up.
I mean, international markets did better than the U.S.
when the U.S. dollar is going down,
the U.S. market doesn't do that well.
So, non-US tends to do well,
but especially in commodities.
And I think it's important for people to realize
it isn't an accident that commodities go up
when the dollar goes down.
I mean, if you think of an ounce of gold
as the unit of currency, then the U.S. dollar
actually goes up or down in relation to an ounce of gold.
So, an ounce of gold is worth $1,000, for example.
But so, if gold goes to $2,000,
that doesn't mean the gold's gone up,
just means the dollar's gone down.
So, and same with the oil, same with copper,
because they're pricing U.S. dollars.
So, when the U.S. dollar goes down,
the commodities go up in price in U.S. dollars,
just make sense.
Would you be long any other currencies
for versus the dollar then?
Yeah, I mean, again, I'm not a currency trader,
but I love currencies that are kind of beaten up
outside their norm and universally hated.
If I can find something that everybody
is on one side of the boat, hate or love,
then you go to the other side of the boat pretty quickly.
So, I think there was the carry trade in Japan,
there's Japanese rates have gone up,
and obviously that's helped the yen.
There's lots of factors out there
that are showing that we've kind of reached peak U.S. dollar
love, right?
Central banks are starting to sell the U.S. dollars.
There's geopolitical reasons for that,
but the other thing is when the U.S.
can seize your currency or seize your assets,
if they're held in U.S. dollars, people say,
oh, well, what if they don't like us one day?
Maybe we should diversify.
So, that's all part of this trade,
and that's why gold did well.
It's usually the first out of the gate, right?
Gold did well in 2022, 2023.
It started to do well, but the stocks didn't do anything.
And you know why?
It's because central banks were buying gold, right?
And they were pushing up demand,
but central banks don't buy gold stocks, right?
They're not gonna buy new Mont or Agnico
in their central bank reserves.
They're gonna buy gold.
So, central banks were buying gold
and Western investors are the ones that buy gold stocks.
And Western investors were saying,
well, we don't know why gold's going up,
so we're certainly not buying the stocks.
This must be a short-term phenomenon.
And then everybody was talking about that through 2024,
and then that's where you get positive on gold stocks,
because that's gonna revert to the mean.
And here we are.
We've reverted to the mean,
and now they're up dramatically from here.
Well, let's just talk about short-term price action.
There's massive volatility today
on the third of March.
Gold is down 4%.
The stock markets in the U.S.,
actually all around the world are down.
The Dow closes 400 points,
falling as much as 1200 points at one point in a day.
You know, Bitcoin is down.
The dollar's slightly up.
The point is there's a lot of volatility
from the conflict in Iran that is escalating,
not de-escalating as we speak.
Why is gold down though?
Shouldn't this be a safe haven?
Right.
I think it was overbought to me.
I'd not overbought long in the long run,
but in the short run, it was overbought.
Silver was down dramatically too.
But I think it was overbought,
but it was also because the U.S. dollar
was up three quarters of a percent today, DX-Y.
So it's U.S. dollar goes up, gold, and silver go down.
But I should say, you mentioned Bitcoin,
and we've been talking about this in gold and silver
in a while, and it kind of gets wrapped into Bitcoin too.
Unfortunately, you know, in the short run,
I think the financialization of any commodity
is a bad thing for it.
In other words, if you wanted to buy gold,
and the only way you could buy gold
was to buy an ounce of gold,
you know, the market would be pretty stable, right?
The supply and demand would fit itself up.
But once you start to say, okay, now you can buy futures,
now you can buy puts, now you can buy calls,
now you can use leverage, now you can do ETFs,
that increases the volatility dramatically,
and it really causes the underlying market
to dislodge from fundamentals in the short run.
And that happened with Bitcoin, right?
Bitcoin was doing what it was doing,
and then they started with futures,
they started with calls, now you can do wraps and collars,
and all this thing on Bitcoin, and what happens?
That the price gets crushed, the price gets pushed up,
and it's all to make some hedge fund money.
That's what it's for.
I mean, we've heard about this in silver recently,
that some of the big hedge funds
are buying a lot of silver on the market,
and they're buying huge amount of silver ETFs.
So what you don't see on the other side is that they're buying,
they're leveraging themselves massively in put options.
So you knock down the price of silver.
So well, your nominal exposure through your put options
is far greater than your ETF exposure.
So you smash down the price, scares everybody out,
you make millions and millions of dollars
on your put options way more than you lost on your long position.
And you know, all of that is,
I don't know how it happens, but it happens.
So you can get big enough that you can create your own market
and make the market do things that you want it to do.
And I think that's what happens in gold, silver,
it happens in a lot of these things.
I don't worry too much about it,
because that doesn't matter in the midterm,
but in the short run, sure if you're running a pod shop
and you want to make money every week, sure.
It's a way for you to do it.
So I really do think, and I know you've talked a lot
about technology in the past.
And I really do think it's become easier to outperform now
than it used to be, which is crazy to say,
because with AI, it's competing with AI
and information comes faster and can be acted upon
and all these sort of things that human brain can't comprehend.
And I think that's made it easier to outperform.
And here's the reason why, because nobody,
nobody is looking 18 months out, right?
Everybody's worrying about what's happening today,
what's happening next month?
How do we make money this quarter?
And if you simply say, like we did back in 2020,
when Uranium was $20 and it costs $60 to get out of the ground,
we said in two years from now, I think that's going to change.
And I think either Uranium has to go up a lot
in price or the companies are going to go bankrupt.
Well, you just waited on it.
It's hard to be patient.
But suddenly, Uranium went from $20 to $120, right?
It's come back to around 80 now.
So then that was the same in silver, right?
So these companies, their cost of production
was greater than the price of silver.
Here's what's happened to silver.
And I think that sector that is probably,
they're going to show that in the next couple of years
is the energy sector.
I'm not just saying that because of Iran,
we've been talking about that for a few months.
This Uranium situation is just a bunch of tourists
you're going to come in and push up the price.
And unfortunately, then they're going to get out
and the price is going to go down.
But I think the fundamentals for gas and for oil
are very, very good,
and especially where the stocks are positioned, et cetera.
Why does Iran have a long-term impact
on the price of oil, you think?
Well, supply, we have enough oil in the world.
We have enough copper in the world.
It's just at what price and how do you get it
out of the ground, right?
With oil, there's enough oil.
If oil is $500 a barrel, they'd find enough oil
to supply that.
That's the great thing about commodities
is the cure for high prices is high prices.
So if Iran comes off, they'll find some oil around.
It might be at a higher level, right?
That it might be $120 a barrel or some higher level,
but the supply and demand will balance at some point.
So yeah, I mean, it might be different this time.
I mean, that's always the most interesting
to say in finance, but geopolitical events,
generally speaking, are short-term in nature.
I don't make commodity by or sell decisions
based upon geopolitical events.
Well, gas prices in the US this month,
this is a trade from CalSheets of Prediction Market.
And I think traders are predicting that there's a higher
than a lower chance that prices will rise,
although just modestly, above $3.5 a gallon,
I believe is the bet here, trade rather.
So we have here a scenario in which geopolitical tensions
have erupted at the same time,
but the mentals are more important, you said.
So I think investors and I think the average American
in the Canadian watching this is probably just mostly concerned
about how their gas prices will change going forward.
Iran or no Iran situation.
What do you think?
Yeah, I remember in 1979, when the revolution happened around,
that pushed up energy prices dramatically
and caused a recession if it sustained.
Energy prices go up.
Almost all big recessions have been caused
by a surge in energy prices because it slows down,
slows down economic growth.
So this is sustained and it goes up and stays up
for a long time, it's gonna severely impact the economy.
That's for sure.
So it might be the pin that picks the bubble.
So that's why in our portfolios,
we have negative beta hedge funds
that make money when the market goes down,
just as an insurance policy.
I think that's important because by the time you figure out
that high energy prices are hurting the economy,
the stock market's already giving me down a lot.
It's already too late.
So these guys start preparing for that in advance.
So we'll see what happens.
If this continues to go and energy prices go up,
that's what happened in 2007, right?
In 2008, we got $220 oil in June,
caused a big economic downturn, right?
So energy prices are important.
They're more important probably than anything else.
And because people cut back
if the prices go up dramatically.
The West Texas Intermediate is still at 74 bucks.
Now, is there a scenario in which you see oil coming down?
Yeah, I mean, right.
If things kind of settle down in Iran
and straight ahead of Hormuz is an impacted,
oil prices will come down, right?
Because the tourists still get out.
They'll come down and things will stabilize.
But I do think that you know,
energy companies just like mining companies
because the last 10 years have been so brutal.
Basically, I mean, oil is 120 in 2008, right?
It was over 100 in 2014.
So we're over a decade here of not good oil prices really.
And because of that,
people haven't invested in the sector, right?
And that's a great thing about commodities.
If you can find a sector where people haven't invested
in the sector to increase the reserves,
to increase what they're pumping out of the ground
or increase their mining capacity.
It's something that is like a rubber band.
You stretch it far enough, it's gonna come back.
And I think that's what's happening in energy.
We've talked about, you know, AI's a big topic, right?
I think the way to make money in AI is energy, right?
Because, you know, two years ago, nobody was talking about this.
More people are talking about it now.
But natural gas, you know, nuclear,
even carbon-based energy is the way to do it.
That's how you're gonna increase the amount of capacity for AI.
Let's talk about what's finally next for gold
in silver and the commodities overall.
Just Mark, it's a large.
I want to draw the audience's attention
to actually a book that you wrote.
This is a, you actually interviewed Canada's top traders.
Top traders in Canada, following on,
I believe the model was following the footsteps
of Jack Schweiger.
But this is the book, it's called Stock Market Superstars,
Secrets of Canada's Top Stock Pickers.
I encourage people to check it out.
You've had a lot of good conversations.
What would Canada's top stock pickers do
in this current environment after something like gold and silver
copper have already run up to all time highs?
What have they typically done in the past
when faced with a scenario in which the security
or commodity, whatever it is that they're looking at,
just ran up parabolicly?
Right, well, I tried to pick managers in the book
that, you know, weren't all commodity people
or weren't all sector-specific.
Because if you're sector-specific,
it's gonna be a big problem.
So you want to be a generalist, right?
So you're gonna be, you know, easing out of a sector
when everybody's going into that sector.
You know, a Rohit Segal in the book, for example,
Rohit's retired now.
We had a lot of money in the commodity sector,
but he also made a lot of money in bank stocks
and technology and other areas.
So I think a lot of these successful growth managers
are gonna be good at rotating to new sectors,
maybe that other people aren't in.
You know, other managers are in that book
or buy and hold people who love to buy things that are hated.
Right? And if you buy something that's hated,
universally hated, generally speaking,
you have a margin of safety in that.
So I've kind of combined what some of the managers
did in that book versus versus some of the other managers.
And in the commodity space, I love the commodity space
because it's very, very volatile.
You know, Eric Sprott mentioned in the book,
he said, the reason he loves mining
is because the highs are so high and the lows are so low.
And the difference between the two is 1,000%.
No other sector where you get that sort of volatility.
So if you can buy anywhere near the low
but anywhere near the top,
I mean, don't have to pick the top.
You're gonna do extremely, extremely well.
So I like to look at the commodities
and find a commodity where the cost of production
is far higher than the underlying commodity, right?
Cause that's a situation that's not gonna last too long.
That's a very universally hated sector.
That was uranium and that was silver.
And maybe that's the energy right now.
Although I would have loved for energy stocks
to go down to the 30s or 40s, that would have been amazing
but didn't happen yet.
And then it's gotta catch up, right?
So companies catch up and then the profitability
just explodes on the upside from there.
So I think that's one of the, you know,
one of the things that I learned from the book.
You know, Eric Sprott mentioned in the book,
he said, I like to buy a stock for a dollar
that's gonna cash flow a dollar per share in three years.
And he said, if you can do that,
you're gonna get a lot of five baggers, et cetera.
So I think that's important.
Now, you're never gonna be able to buy a stock
for a dollar is gonna cash flow a dollar in three years
for share.
And unless you're kinda looking at the world differently, right?
The average, the average analyst out there right now
has a target or price deck of $50 on silver.
So the stocks are trading like silver's 50 bucks
but if it goes a lot higher than companies
are gonna make more money.
So ultimately, where are we in the cycle?
And let's close off from your mining clock.
What is that?
And how do you read that?
Yeah, I think the mining clock is really important
to look at and the reason for that
is because it kinda tells you where you are
in the cycle by reverse engineering
because the problem is in mining
or any other sector in AI or technology
or Bitcoin or anything is that people are influenced
by the narrative and the narrative becomes greater
and greater and greater, the more things go up
and it seems like a more logical conclusion,
the more things go up.
So sentiment increases, et cetera.
But the mining clock is a very quantitative way
of kinda looking at where we are in the sector.
So basically, the market is telling you
because what's happening in the market
is telling you where you are in the sector.
So, you know, don't have to go into all the details here
but, you know, 12 o'clock is usually the high
and then you get this absolute collapse in the market
for mining, for example.
And usually bottoms around three o'clock.
So three o'clock probably was 2015, right?
You know, Glencore almost went bankrupt.
One of the biggest companies in the world, tech.
All these big companies were in desperate, desperate trouble
that reducing, they're decreasing the reserves.
They're not making money, they're not cash flowing,
they have a lot of debt, et cetera.
So some don't survive, most survive and they cut back.
They cut back dramatically
and they bring their cost to production down.
You know, they wipe out a billion
or two billion or five billion dollars
with the reserves and say, these are worth nothing.
And when you do that, you bring your cost to production down
that's usually four or five o'clock
that happened back in 2018, 19.
Then you start to get these companies cash flowing,
starting to make some money
and people sentiment starting to increase
and the first thing these companies do is they pay it on debt
because they almost went bankrupt at the bottom.
So they say, we're not gonna get ourselves
in that position again.
So they pay off debt, start to get cash flow positive.
So then you start to see the price of the underlying commodity
start to go up pretty dramatically.
Companies become profitable
and then you start to get new issues of companies that come out.
That's kind of where we are right now.
That's why we say we're around 6.30 probably
for mining in general and gold specifically.
So what happens is 6.30?
Yeah, people decide that, hey,
we've got an old mine here that wasn't profitable
but we're gonna restart it
and we're gonna do an IPO
and we're gonna raise money to get this going.
So that starts to happen quite a bit on the market
and we're starting to see that.
Then these companies really start to make a lot of money.
Nine o'clock, people get the sentiment gets to be very large.
You start to get companies get bought out.
Maybe they were worth nothing a few months ago
and they get bought out for $2 billion or $5 billion
by the majors because they have so much cash
they don't know what to do with the cash.
So they start to increase the reserves.
Then what happens is you start to see
that they pay too much, right?
Because there's too much supply
and they increase, sorry, too much demand for the supply.
So they start to overpay for what they do.
Then the commodity starts to crash
at around 11, 12 o'clock
and we get back to the same situation.
That's a decade-long process.
But I think we're middle-endings right now.
There's a lot of money's been made
and these sectors already, right?
A lot of these juniors are up five, six, seven hundred percent.
So we're not at the beginning of this cycle.
People are still saying, are we in a bull market for commodities?
I can't believe they could even ask that question.
I mean, Uranium stocks are up 10 times
in the last five years.
That's called a bull market, right?
We've been in a bull market for five years.
We've been in a bull market for commodities
and commodity stocks for a while here.
Probably middle-endings right now.
Okay, Bob, excellent talk.
We'll follow up next time
but tell us where we can follow your work for now.
Sure, we do something called the Gold Digger every month
and it's two pages, but it has lots of links in it.
People don't read a lot these days.
So if you want the Gold Digger, it's just free.
You can go to miningwealth.ca.
So miningwealth.ca and then you can sign up for it there.
And we'll send it out to,
we always talk about topical things about commodities
and we deal a lot with mining executives.
So we talk a lot about making money
as a mining executive and how you shield that money
and then put it inside another sector.
So I think that's important, David,
why we've always chatted is that we are generalists.
I'm not just invested in mining.
I'm a generalist, I'll go buy anything, bonds or tech stocks
or whatever the case is outside of the sector.
I think it's important to have that kind of outside view
to and looking into this sector.
Okay, well, I appreciate it.
We'll put the link down below
so you can follow the Gold Digger there
and Bob's work and do check out Bob's book.
Great read.
Thank you so much, Bob.
Take care and we'll speak next time.
Thanks again, David.
See you next time.
Thanks for watching.
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The David Lin Report

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