Germany's far-right bombshell

0:00Good morning, it's Monday, September 7, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is thunderstruck after the far-right alternative for Germany, one big in a state election in Saxony and Holt. The AFD looks set to be in a position to govern the state, which would mean a far-right party taking power in part of Germany for the first time since the Second World War. So given how big a political moment it is, both in Berlin and in Brussels, we're actually going to be dedicating the entire show today to this election result. I'm Zoja Schottalovic, and with me today is our Chief Foreign Affairs correspondent, Nick Finneck. Hey Zoja. Are you ready for a full episode on German regional politics? Someone better hold me back. All right, Nick.

1:00Well, let's actually start by telling people where we're at as we are taping this. So almost all of the votes have been counted, but things are still a little bit up in the air because there's a few percent left to go. And as we record this, the results are the CDU, which is the party of German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz, is sitting at around about that 17.4 percent of the vote, just over 44 percent for the far-right AFD. We've got around about 8.5, 8.6 percent for Delinke, which is the left party. The SPD is on 9 percent. The Greens are on 9 percent. And BsW, the far left party, is on just over 5 percent of the vote. And Nick, we've got a special guest joining us in Berlin today. Our colleague Hans Wanderbohr is with us. Hans, you've been following this election very closely. And this is a really big moment for German politics. Well, good morning from Berlin. Absolutely, Zoya. This is a huge disruption for German politics.

2:00I mean, to put things into perspective, Sachsen Anhalt is not a very densely populated state. About 2.1 million inhabitants. That's roughly half the size of Berlin. So we're not talking about a big election like Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, or North Rhine, or Sphelia here. But still the result. I mean, if you look at it, the AFD almost doubled its outcome and the CDU. I mean, it's brutal. They're more than half their outcome. And the only other small winner here is maybe the Greens. Well, they look like they were going to be wiped out entirely at a certain point. But they look like they've actually gone quite well. So it looks like whatever message they've been selling has been landing with voters. But this doesn't mean that the AFD necessarily will have their outright majority because it looks like they've fallen a little bit short of being able to govern the state without any coalition partners whatsoever, although again, this might change by the time folks wake up in the morning. But because the BSW does look like they've got enough to be in parliament, that might actually be possible relatively easily for them

3:03because the BSW has said that they would not block the AFD from power. Yeah, at least they said that if it comes to a third term election in the parliament, they would abstain and then Ziegmund is quite likely to get the majority. But what's actually the interesting development of the evening is that Ziegmund already says, well, I don't have the absolute majority, so I'm not going to govern. I mean, is it in his gift to call another election? Is he able to do that if he decides that he wants another bite of the cherry? Well, he said over the past weeks, over and over again, that he's not going to change his positions or do compromises in order to enter a coalition and get to power. So his argument is, I have my clear program and I don't want to compromise at all. And that's what he repeated tonight and said, actually, well, if we don't have the absolute majority, then maybe the will have to be new elections. We have to see obviously how that develops over the next days. But it's a quite interesting political dynamic unfolding here.

4:05It's interesting that you say that because some of the policies that he has floated during the election campaign have been pretty significantly, I mean, they're quite aggressive policies. So there's one where he plans a state-level deportation push and much tougher asylum policies. He's also talking about cuts to public broadcasters, major changes to schools and to the curricula, the way that German history is taught. He wants to purge the states of all service as well. So that's, I mean, that's a pretty significant program that he's talking about. So that's going to see some big changes to the state of Saxony and Holt potentially. But what he has also done is kind of given a blueprint for what the AFD wants to do, should they take power federally? Now, the next German federal election isn't for a few years, but still the AFD is top of the polls, Nick. So this is going to be, it's going to give us an example of what it might look like if we see a far-right chancellor potentially down the track. For sure, I think it's a big warning sign for governments around Europe and Germany being, you know, the biggest economy,

5:10the biggest by population in Europe, where it goes, Germany goes the rest of Europe. So definitely a sort of rude awakening in Brussels today. It's not just in Germany, of course. We have this phenomenon of dominant far-right parties in many different places in Europe. And yeah, I don't know if we'll get to that. Yeah, we'll definitely get to that. Before we do, I think the interesting thing here is also what this means for German chancellor Friedrich Merz, because as you said, Hans, I mean, this is an embarrassing showing for the CDU. They have halved their vote share since the previous election. And a lot of this is being put at the door of the chancellor himself with folks pointing to the fact that he's deeply unpopular around Germany. His approval rating is in the single digits in Saxony and Holt. And so it's a real rebuke of the chancellor. So one does wonder, you know, is he going to stay around for very much longer, all things considered? Yeah, actually an interesting fact is that a couple of years ago, for Dich Merz,

6:12when he wasn't a chancellor, when he wasn't even opposition leader, but his pitch was that if he gets to power, he would half the vote share of the AFD. And now we've seen the opposite, at least in Saxony and Holt, the AFD doubling and the CDU are halving. So that is quite astonishing. And it really shows also how unpopular he is. I mean, there has been a lot of in general discontent in Saxony and Holt, also the economic situation has to do with it. A lot of frustration about politics, the mainstream politics in general, but Friedrich Merz, his unpopularity has to do with it. And the big question is now how this will unfold in Berlin as well. The voices will probably grow that demand there should be a change at the top level, but that's actually not so easy in Germany. Yeah, indeed. I mean, it's not like perhaps our British listeners, or even our Australian listeners might know that it's not so difficult to get rid of a prime minister in those countries. It is very difficult to get rid of a sitting chancellor in Germany. So I guess that is probably not going to happen in the immediate future.

7:14But we should say, I mean, the AFD in Saxony and Holt has been classified as extremist by the state domestic intelligence agency, and still people were willing to vote for this party. Absolutely. I mean, there are far right. There are a lot of people in there that are very, very radical during the elections campaign that had no problems with people doing Nazi salutes and all sorts of things. They're also very Euroskeptical, I would say, even NTEU. They're very pro-Russia, so that is a lot of red flags for British merits and also probably for other EU countries that might look at this with a bit of concern if you think the Germany has now rearming so much. And then you have a far right party with these views. I mean, even the far right party in France of Marine Le Pen doesn't want to work with them together. The AFD at the European level, which should tell quite something. But just to this earlier point with British merits also to remove them, just two big hurdles there. First of all, he would have to agree himself that there's a switch at the top of the leadership in Germany.

8:17And then we would need the votes and the parliament. And that is really, really tricky because British merits, let's not forget, even during the first vote of him to become chancellor, he failed to get the majority. And it's very, very thin margin in the parliament. It's not so easy to just do a switch there and then get everybody to support the replacement for Friedrich. Well, Hans, before we let you go, what are you watching out for? Like, when are we going to figure out who the next premier is going to be? When are we getting the absolute final kind of picture of what this looks like? I think we look really at a hung parliament here in Saxony Unhalt. It will take a longer while, especially if what I'm hearing now from Zekemond that maybe he doesn't want to present himself, maybe he's more looking for new elections again, hoping to get an even bigger vote to share. I think the bigger political shock that this will send through Germany will be felt quite a lot. Let's not forget we have two more elections coming up in two weeks in Mecklenburg, Vorpommern, Big State, and the North. And in Berlin, the capital itself.

9:18And then all the consequences also what it means for the coalition that is going to probably be felt than in two weeks even more. Maybe the one thing for Friedrich Merz to consolidate himself is a bit that the SPD has coalition partner. They increased even a tiny bit in Saxony Unhalt. And it looks in Mecklenburg, Vorpommern, actually, at the moment that they might win against the AFD, at least they're really catching up in the vote share. Because that was a big concern for him as well that this coalition might completely unravel because his coalition partner, the SPD, is so weakened and at the moment they look a bit stabilized and it's really the CDU with Merz at the top that has a big problem. Well, some cold comfort for Friedrich Merz, I think, considering how poorly he has done, but something's better than nothing. Hans, thank you so much for joining us today. It's been a big night for you in Berlin, so I'm going to let you go to get your Berlin Playbook sorted. Well, it's been a pleasure to be here on the podcast and what are looking forward to come back soon.

10:18There might be more news, discomforting news, perhaps to discuss about German politics. Thanks Hans. All right, Nick, back to us in the studio. This is going to be pretty significant for the EU because I mean, this is such a wake-up call to governments around Europe that the far right can, in fact, make these sorts of gains and no firewall or national taboo was going to stop them. Yeah, I mean, you know, I think like we were saying, this result is not totally unexpected, but it has the sort of historical milestone to it. Of course, happening in Germany, a far-right party, it's going to draw a lot of attention. And of course, you know, when you look at other election races coming up, you've got Sweden happening later this week. You've got France, massive one, in 2027, the far-right rising and being the biggest party in these countries is really a theme that we're seeing across the board. And people are starting to get very nervous about not just the way big policies like Ukraine and defense are going,

11:23but actually about the survival of the EU if some of these parties get into power. Yeah, absolutely. And I mean, speaking on the topic of Ukraine, I mean, we know the AFD position on Ukraine is not good for Ukraine. It is pro-Russia, they want to talk with the Kremlin, they want closer ties. I mean, Sigmund has said that he wants to reinstate exchange programs with Russian schools. So, you know, there is an overt kind of at every level friendliness towards Russia. And one of the issues that I've been speaking with people about over the past few months is the extent to which intelligence services are concerned about the AFD being elected, because of course, they then have access to quite sensitive information and the fear is that that might go straight to Russia. That intel might be shared with the Kremlin. Exactly. I mean, this became very real in Europe when we found out that the former Hungarian foreign minister was sort of reporting in real time to his counterpart in Moscow about high level EU meetings.

12:23But it's a concern across the board. I'm back from Stockholm, I interviewed the social democratic party leader there, and she was warning about the Sweden Democrats, the right-wing party over there, which could enter government with the conservatives, and they've just had a really big scandal about Russia infiltration into their party, and the warning is the same thing. It's about operational security. It's about the confidence of dialogue between governments effectively. That's what's being potentially threatened if these parties end up in power. And this interview is actually in today's Brussels playbook, isn't it Nick? Sure is, yeah. So folks can read the full details there. But it is, I mean, it is quite an interesting kind of wake-up call. I've said it once, and I'm going to say it again, because we know that this French election that's coming up in April and May, 2027, has the real potential for the first time having a far-right president in France, which would be another huge milestone. I mean, Murray and Le Pen has been dancing around the presidency for several electoral cycles, and now it looks like it might be her for real.

13:28Yeah, I mean, that one would potentially be curtains for the EU, because there's a big threat on the table there, France withdrawing its contribution to the EU budget. It makes things very difficult to operate as normal. I think as we're digesting the Germany result this week, we're going to talk about the long-term budget of the EU, the MFF. Germany already has a very tough position in these negotiations. It's likely to get even tougher. Ukraine is going to become more of a difficult conversation. We're already looking for more money for Ukraine, more weapons before the end of the year. That conversation is bound to get more strained. And of course, we have a very hot migration debate in Brussels as well, and you've got a lot of these leaders chasing or trying to fend off the far-right and going harder and harder on PAN-EU policies. We're talking about return hubs, sending migrants whose asylum applications have failed outside of the EU. This was unimaginable a few years ago. Now it's kind of mainstream policy.

14:30Yeah, Nick, and speaking of the EU's next long-term budget, I just spent a few days over in Dublin at this informal meeting of Europe ministers chaired by the Irish presidency of the council. Now this is where they started really hammering out the details of the EU's seven-year budget, and that budget will be supposed to take the EU from 2028 to 2034. And Germany over a quarter of the EU's budget comes directly from Germany. So if you've got the AFD nipping at the heels of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, if you've got the AFD basically campaigning hard on the idea of there's got to be less contributions from Germany, that makes that budget very, very difficult to balance because Germany's money is vital to keep the EU running. And so this was really, it became apparent in Dublin the extent to which the positions are quite far apart, despite the fact that everyone put kind of a smile on things. There was banter. I've got a story coming out later in the week about this kind of bon homie that was in the...

15:32Stublin. Yeah, it was Dublin, everyone's at the pub. But nonetheless, you know, it is clear that there are these two quite entrenched camps. And in order for the EU to be able to do the ambitious things that it wants to do, it has to spend money on that. But if Germany, which is the largest contributor to the budget, is saying absolutely not because we've got an AFD that's about to nip at our heels in all of these various states, I've got to look like I'm doing something, that makes things hard. Makes it really hard. I mean, the budget negotiations always very strained. Anyone will tell you that, but this one is particularly hard. And you're right to say the frugals are on a very hard position that the budget effectively needs to come down. And then you have the friends of cohesion, is it? Is that the latest term? Friends of cohesion. They also like to... They call themselves all sorts of things. They call themselves friends of cohesion. Friends of farmers, I think is what they are. Well, you know, they are saying if we want the EU to progress and to invest in new technologies, we need more money in this budget.

16:32And where we are now, September, it's La Rontre. The positions are super far apart. It's going to be a real fight. And that's where a lot of the politics we're talking about starts to get sort of influence the policy debate and make it so much more strained. And I did want to pick up on something that Hans mentioned, which is this idea of, you know, the fear around Europe about a rearming Germany. I mean, Germany is pumping so much money into its defense. It's buying up weapons. It's beefing up its various armed forces. That must be a bit of a worry for EU partners that all of this money is going into an industry that might soon be controlled by a far right minister potentially. I mean, look, not that soon. It will take a few years, but nonetheless. Yeah, it's funny that you asked that question. I was once in a briefing with a German leader and to respect the terms, I'm not going to say who it was, but it was a recent one and they were asked that question. You're rearming. You're redeveloping the army. Does this pose a danger if the far right comes in power? And the question was dismissed as absurd.

17:33And here we are talking about it in slightly less outlandish terms. So effectively, we might be at the cusp of historical events in Europe, but we'll have to see what happens. And I should say, Nick, I mean, the AFD at the federal level, it's polling at around about 28% so it's not quite the same level, but it is still in first place. Nick, there's a few people over in the US who've been watching these results pretty closely. Elon Musk has been posting on Twitter about it or an ex or whatever you want to call it these days and Donald J Trump has been truthy about it. Yeah, we've seen Trump react to the results of a state election in Germany, which is, you know, unusual, but not that unusual when you consider the rhetoric of magas often sort of aligned with the culture war rhetoric we get from the AFD. We know there's been support from characters like Elon Musk who beamed into an AFD party rallies had debates with the party leader. So there is a meeting of minds here about kind of nativism certain themes that come across in both platforms.

18:40And you know, some people point out that the sympathetic or complacent attitude toward Russia is also shared in some ways between maga and the AFD. So yeah, might be some celebrations in DC. That's right over in Poland, the Prime Minister Donald Tusk, he was not quite so happy. He posted on ex in Poland only idiots or traitors can rejoice at the triumph of the AFD in Germany. So there you have it. Yeah, not happy. Not happy at all. All right, Nick. I think that's about as much as we're going to be able to do at this point of time, because if I don't stop us, we might go forever. I'm done. Sticker fork in me. Folks out there actually wouldn't mind hearing from our listeners. You know, what do you think this result means for European politics, for Germany, for your country, wherever it is that you're listening from send us a message or send us a voice note. Our number is in the show notes as is a link as always. That's it from us today. And we will be back with you tomorrow.