Getting the Strait straight

0:00It's the tip of the spare in the epic battle to defend the United States of America. The National Security Hour exposes the wolves and sheep clothing and then a various plots to undermine and destroy U.S. National Security. Welcome to the National Security Hour on the America Out Loud Network. I'm your host Blanket the Column. We are staying on top of what's happening in the Straits of Hermos, the Middle East, Iran and decisions that are being rendered by President Trump and from Iran. My guest is a brilliant strategic policy and intelligent expert who spoke as always been on the Middle East. I'm talking about my friend Claire Lopez and you've been doing so much Claire.

1:00Tell folks a little bit about you. Well thanks BQ. I'm so glad to be with you again as always and never more timely than now, as you say exactly. So I am now a private consultant for national security issues. I am registered in my state of Virginia as Lopez Liberty LLC. Unfortunately I do not have a website but I am on many different platforms including social media, Twitter, Facebook, truth social, telegram, all of that. And of course I post up at the United West the Citizens Commission on National Security and the Near East Center for Strategic Engagement. Now Claire I'm going to move us along here because I want to get to what I've been covering earlier and that is that I understand and you'll correct me if I'm incorrect.

2:00The United States forces have begun striking the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the targets are in Iran. The strikes are following the recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Straits of Hermos. What do you know? Well we've been in, I've lost count now, how many different periods of ceasefire? Certainly since the memorandum of understanding back in June of this year we're now the first of September. And during those ceasefire periods the IRGC regime I think in my opinion and what I can tell, use that time to rearm, rebuild, reorganize and to try to keep some measure of control over the Strait of Hermos. Well the United States government President Trump retaliated with a blockade of that

3:00Strait of Hermos of our own. Four ships going to and from Iranian ports but other ships coming from other Persian Gulf partners, friends and allies like Kuwait and Bahrain, Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, they were allowed through well now. Here we are first of September. The United States Navy has pretty much cleared the Strait of Hermos of mines and has been escorting ships through sometimes under cover of darkness. You know the transponders turned off. The result has been millions and millions of barrels of oil getting out and through to customers all over the world which has kept our oil prices maybe not as low as we'd like but lower than they might have otherwise been. Let me ask you about what happened over the past weekend. There is that the IRGC regime now really really suffering constricted under the sanctions

4:10levied by our Secretary of Treasury Scott Besent who is absolutely brilliant, Operation Economic Outcast, suffering under those restrictions they lashed out and they launched or were about to launch, they have launched actually but we're about to launch this past weekend. Rocket missiles that were to have laid or dropped more mines into the Strait of Hermos. Well of course we've got eyes in the sky watching everything they do and the United States struck those launchers and launch sites before they could really get anything off the ground. To the point that I was going to ask you about because this leads into it. I want to know how legitimate the issue is because people are talking about the collapse of the economy in Iran because of all of this is that because of what Besent is done

5:12is that accurate or do we need to be concerned about Russia in to read? All of that yes true but to finish what I was saying about the launch of these missiles into the Strait of Hermos they were intercepted the launch sites and the launchers were struck on a little island called Lerak Island in the strait by the United States and in retaliation the Iranians struck at bases air bases inside of Jordan and they were all intercepted those missiles and rockets were intercepted no casualties no damage that I know of. So how is Jordan responding to that? I always say Jordan is off again. How is Jordan responding to that? Well the point is that it's not Jordan it's the United States. I understand that but Jordan has been an ally to us. Right they have how have they responded? Our forces are posted at these air bases in Jordan so Jordan is not really part of this

6:18they're not involved but the United States and Iran are back in a period now looks at for tat. Now your question about the economy yes Scott Besent measures again he's calling that Operation Economic Outcast this time really constrains any flow of funding to the IRGC regime in Tehran and that means he's closing off financial ties to banks financial institutions shipping companies insurance companies all over the world and not allowing blocking any funding going to that regime in Iran and that really has put the you know the constriction on that regime they cannot pay their troops anymore those security forces that keep you know the people suppressed like IRGC like Kudtsforce like Beseech national police and so

7:24but the real the real suffering is the Iranian people who absolutely are in desperate states that the national currency called the real has in the last couple of days reached two million to one dollar. Let me ask you about let me ask you about again the role of China and this and the role of Russia. Well it's really well you have yeah let me finish please the role of Russia coming in at a time when even the deal with oil has changed a bit and again with China with Venezuela and oil that was normally the deal had been partnered with China that's changed Russia is now taking a more active role because of what's going on in Ukraine you've mentioned that the Iranians can't pay their soldiers so how is this changing with the role of China and Russia in all of this activity.

8:26The these economic sanctions that the United States is levying on Iran are not just primary sanctions they are secondary sanctions even tertiary sanctions and that means that anybody doing business with the ran or doing business with anybody doing business what you see where I'm going all the way to tertiary sanctions which really cuts off the bill explain it more pardon explain it more right so what that does is really cuts off the funding flow to the regime and again as we said they they cannot pay their their thugs that keep the people suppressed but the you know the involvement of Russia not so much Russia China is really important here and as long as those channels remain open between China and Iran for funding the the operation you know Besson's sanctions operation economic outcast will not have full

9:31effect now remember of course that she's in ping is due in the United States for a visit later this month September 24th and I'm sure I'm going back to 205. And Egypt is also expected to arrive in Egypt as he's reassessing the Iran war and the question is the enemy of my enemy is my friend how will his relationship in Egypt with the Egyptian leadership there how will it make a difference to the future of any activity any negotiations that are being presented if we look at Xi Jinping who is coming to the United States will he be speaking on behalf of Iran or only independently on his own about China well of course he's coming to represent China naturally but obviously the topic of Iran relations support

10:31and that includes financial support obviously it also includes the provision of things like intelligence and targeting for the Iranians that at least we're trying to target shipping and United States forces as we've said in Jordan that kind of support from China and so all of that certainly will be topics of discussion here in the US later this month as far as Egypt goes you know China is reaching out there as well trying to I guess broaden its you know circle of relationships in the overall middle. Well you have for example the president Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi he said that Egypt and China have become partners working to strengthen the role of the global South and international waters and the international system how will that work with the other players that are involved. Well not sure yet you know this is sort of reaching out by China

11:40and Egypt both you know to broaden their own circle of relationships and I don't see a lot of of you know support coming from China to Egypt except maybe in terms of weapons sales that sort of thing but you know we shall see what about the dynamic of who is Egypt close to Egypt is close to which countries in the Middle East are they tighter with are they close to Iran are they close to Jordan which countries are they well then you know that's an important player you talked about us having the base in Jordan and the and the issue is Jordan may not do anything but if it's affected by its own country being targeted that may change the nature nature of the relationship. No probably not because the United States forces they're act as a stabilizing force for Jordan

12:40and as protection for Jordan from you know ballistic missiles and drones and so forth fired from Iran at Jordan so I think that relationship is a solid one between the United States and Jordan and indeed in the most recent you know episode those incoming missiles were intercepted and so again as I understand no damage no casualties but Jordan is an important player in the Middle East absolutely and a strong partner for the United States it works with Israel too. Well the Israeli embassy is offering a very big caution to Americans across the Middle East to exercise heightened vigilance. Yes as far as travel goes that that warning comes out from the Department of State and in a period of heightened tensions as we are in right now that is prudent

13:41and that is you know something that we hear every now and then yes. All right we are talking about what's going on right now folks with the acceleration and the straits of Hormuz and the President is taking very strong action my question to you then is who is Trump talking to? Who is he who is he speaking to not just in the United States but who do you think that he brings into a circle of advisory from other countries that he listens to their wisdom or their caution? Well certainly Israel absolutely top of the list number one relationship between the United States and Israel between President Trump and Prime Minister Bebe Nisanyahu very close relationship there supportive and mutually geared towards the same objectives in the Middle East

14:43which of course are to end to preclude any revival of Iran's nuclear weapons program. Likewise its ballistic missile program and then of course you know stopping any Iranian support going to its former proxies jihadis proxies like Hizbullah Hamas Houthis, Hashhtoshabi in Iraq and then finally of course the opening of the strait of Hormuz all of these four objectives are shared between the United States and Israel and we work very closely together. What do you think about the the immediate situation with the strait of Hormuz where do you see that going in the next week? Well obviously the United States Navy controls the strait of Hormuz right now never mind what statements might be coming out of Tehran and I think that the escort of ships you know non-Irnean bound or leaving from

15:45you know those will continue under United States protection and escort the strait of Hormuz does remain mine free particularly that southern route that hugs the coastline along Oman and that is the route that the United States is you know escorting ships through not just oil tankers but also you know shipping you know other kinds of commercial shipping going through there when we when we take a little break we're going to come back with our guest Clair Lopez and I'd like to paint a picture so people you know when you talk about the straits of Hormuz and where they are how they're affected and how much is this going to impact impact not just their lives but our lives and who are these neighbors that are involved and I'm talking about countries that are involved in this effort that we're trying to clear out with the strait of Hormuz Clair Lopez will make it more understandable for those of you that don't get it but need to know

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18:57the exclusive discount just for America out loud listeners that's B E A R B A R dot com forward slash out loud immense country is not a certain area of land of mountains rivers and woods but it is a principle and patriotism is loyal to that principle I'm happy to report that American patriotism flows freely once again America out loud dot news is that place to awaken your heart soul and mind to the y'all out truth welcome to the national security hour we're back with my guest clear low pence who knows a lot about what's going on in the middle east and particularly with the streets of harmus when the

19:58president is now making taking action out there and we have an issue with Iran we've always been concerned about their nuclear capability has it ever been has it been diminished I wanted to get clear on because she has a very good handle on the whole background and what's happening right now clear with the concern that people have about their capability nuclear with nuclear materials does that still exist do we still have that threat yes we absolutely do as long as that regime remains in power in Iran the threat of a revival of their nuclear weapons program continues so go back to June of 25 last year and why did Israel and the United States decide that they had no more time they absolutely had to launch operation rising lion for the Israelis and operation midnight hammer for the United States at that time against Iran's nuclear weapons program targeting

21:01specifically Natanz is Fahan and Fardo the reason is that the Iranians were on the verge of acquiring deliverable nuclear weapons I do wish our president and leadership figures in the administration would explain this more explicitly because it's open source information coming from the i.e. international atomic energy agency as well as David Albright's what we call the good ISIS the Institute for Science and International Security and the information also coming from open press briefings given by the Iranian resistance group the national council of resistance of Iran briefings that I attended well what were they doing they already had an SD Woodcoff are on boy openly discussed in in a I guess it was a table cable TV interview that Iran as of last year had on hand highly enriched uranium stocks of over 60 percent that totaled something there are

22:07a thousand pounds plenty to make ten or eleven or I don't know how many nuclear warheads within a very short period of time we're talking about weeks I want to ask you about those open one second I would like to ask you about those open briefings because you said they were open were they open to the press were press there press briefings yes and they were press briefings were what were the American press yes orders there yes bright bar CNN you know you name it they were they were there one American news newsmax was there and many so would you say would you consider the press that was there that was more right leaning as opposed to and then press that is considered not right leaning such as Wall Street Journal Fox News is right leaning but maybe CNN were they there were they present they were there and I don't think of them in terms of right and left I don't

23:07think about it like that they were all there they all wrote things up they were multiple press briefings during 2025 that I attended and you know and again what else was briefed was that Iran had the ballistic missile delivery systems and that they were working on warheads adapting warheads to the nose cones of those delivery missiles and so you say the president was not clear enough in his an ability to explain that if they were there was at his fault or their fault or what should have been the problem yeah I'm not going to lay blame but you did so that's why I'm asking I do wish that things were explained more explicitly and clearly yes because all of that I'm telling you now it's completely open source and I also do have a blog site at news backs of my own where I wrote up these briefings during 2025 I don't know three four different articles there under my

24:09in defense of liberty news backs blog sites so it's all open source it's all there but I have to take you back to that because what could have he explained at those briefings that was not covered that people did not understand that were there present well those present absolutely understood and they wrote it up too just as I did but what I what I'm wishing is is that there were more explicit press briefings coming out of the White House the defense department about what I just said the highly new Serenium the missile delivery systems and the development of the warheads fitting them to the nose cones of the missiles all of those three factors were explained reported in the briefings and written up by all of us but I think what where did he drop the ball well I'm not saying he dropped the ball I'm just saying I wish that there were more explicit briefings about those you know revelations of information

25:13about a RANCE nuclear weapons program the Middle East tensions are rising obviously the rumors are that the Iranians can't pay their soldiers there's there there is a concern at least from from the people inside of Iran they're saying that they are concerned about their own lives their welfare and there is a lot of of of people that are basically leaving the military they're they're just walking away well no I don't know that I've never heard that I heard that today so that's why I'm asking you that question how much what can we rely upon on the accuracy of that interintelligence it's difficult to sort out you know what is actually happening and what maybe people are speculating is happening and also you know myriad bots out there in social media world yeah myriad bots but right now you know the one thing is to be able to again as you talked about

26:14these that's why those briefings are important and the briefings were important and if the intelligence that came out even developed from people who were speaking to people that you can't trust them that says something about the the press that attended those briefings I'm wondering how much more the president could relay as he's trying to negotiate well I mean obviously he and and the you know a cabinet members closest advisors they receive all of this information directly from these sources that I mentioned i.e. a good ISIS and the national council resistance of Iran passes all of this information directly to the administration so they have it they had it but you know it informed their own decision making obviously basically a Syria on this what is the well the i.e. a saying that Iran uranium stockpile was estimated unchanged and the Assad era Syria nuclear activity is still remaining pretty much

27:18the same what's the role of Syria in all of this well you know of course in December of 2024 the Turkish backed Hayat Tahir al-Sham jihadis under the leadership of Ahmed al-Shara now calling himself president there took over in in whatever was left of Syria and Bashar al-Ali Assad and family fled to safe haven in Moscow where I guess they still remain but take us back even further to 2007 and at that time the Israeli Air Force struck two sites inside of Syria that were under construction by the North Koreans together with the Syrians to build a nuclear capability for Syria this is Bashar al-Assad's time still then and the Israeli Air Force destroyed

28:19these sites al-Khabir sites and that eliminated that that threat of a nuclear development there in Syria under Bashar al-Assad now what has been learned more recently is that apparently material I don't know yellow cake or whatever it might be some material is left over I'm not talking about enriched uranium I'm not talking about you know anything more developed than that but some remnants have been left over and they're now going to be removed let me ask you about a statement from the parliamentary speaker from Iran who basically said he warned of military response from them if the U.S. siege intensifies what does that mean to you how serious is that? Well I mean they wanted to be taken seriously we're talking about Mohammed Bakr Kali-Baf who is the

29:20speaker of the Iranian Magilist the parliament and both he and other leading figures of that regime to include IRGC members and of course Kali-Baf himself is former IRGC despite occupying what you might think of as a civilian post right now but they have all issued increasingly hysterical warnings against the United States because they are under a great deal of pressure and they know that they're losing they know that their days are numbered. So what does that mean should we take them seriously because of their days are numbered they have nothing to lose if they don't strike well yeah absolutely have to take them seriously and and that's what we're looking at in these strikes attempted strikes I should say against shipping in the straight of foremost as well as launching you know missiles at the bases in Jordan and also we should add they launched against the united Arab Emirates too all of that is very serious absolutely but those are the final flailings of a

30:23regime that is collapsing which could be a dangerous flail it could be a dangerous well you have to take it seriously but Scent is saying that in two years all this this fighting that we're having and trying to straighten out the situation the strengths of hormones won't matter because it'll be a worthless piece of water what does he mean by that? The reason that he's saying that and he's got a good point too is that because of all the trouble getting through the straight of hormones since all of this began alternate routes have been established pipelines across the Arabian peninsula pipelines diverting around the straight of hormones you know and other means of getting oil out of those Persian Gulf ports belonging to you know Kuwait Bahrain Emirates Qatar Saudi Arabia they're finding alternate routes in addition to the fact that the United States has just concluded

31:23this massive deal with Venezuela to develop and access its potential a huge potential of recoverable you know of the oil the oil there has to be resources in the oil resources it's a very heavy oil which interestingly enough if it has to be processed it's going to probably be processed through Texas because Texas and Houston is one of the places that really has the capability to refine that type of very heavy oil I know that firsthand from dealing with some of the oil guys there the question is though when Chavez was in power and the later Maduro Maduro made a very very committed arrangement and deal with the Chinese now they have apparently scrapped that and I'm working with the president do they still in effect have any relationship with the Chinese and do they still have any commitment with the Chinese in that capacity? No Venezuela oil is going to China not to Iran

32:30not to Cuba it's all going to be coming here just as you say be quick to our refineries adapted for that heavy oil you know that Venezuela has tar sands oil refineries in Texas I think there's some in Louisiana also and those will be ramping up in coming months and years to to process that heavy oil coming out of Venezuela to the benefit of all of us Venezuelan people as well as the United States in terms of our oil capacity and President Trump has promised for example to refill our strategic petroleum reserve which is a pretty bad situation right now I think if it is many people are asking whether they will revive fracking whether they will be able to provide any kind of documentation to allow more people to to go back into the oil exploration and not just in Texas but other places that are like Oklahoma and California and other places that are very well known.

33:33But since said that the United States now it's not only just going to target the state of poor music and dealing with China they're saying they're he says they're going to target Iranian banks airline leasing companies with sanctions any comments on that? Yeah that's what we were talking about before in terms of shutting off every channel of financial funding that could possibly flow to whatever's left of this IRGC regime in Tehran and so that does include banks and their branches all over the world it includes financial institutions it includes as we said shipping companies and insurance companies and commodity supplier everything you can think of is being closed down by these secondary and even as we said tertiary sanctions. He says the companies that countries that are doing business with Iran as you just said face secondary sanctions the administration has said the measures are intended to cut off funding

34:36for Iran's military and its support for regional proxies what countries in particular are doing support there would that be Canada would that be China would that be you know Romania which countries we don't know Americans don't know yeah we sure know I mean yeah absolutely China in Canada a top of the list absolutely but there are branches of these companies and banks and financial institutions in countries all over the world including friends and partners and allies of the United States but they're all unnoticed now they're getting a you know a period of time a grace period to you know manage all of this but they're unnoticed that any funding flows that that would otherwise go to the Iranian regime will no longer go we will what's the relationship what's the relationship then we've we discussed Canada and China and something but what about Mexico are a neighbor to the to the south what's the role of Mexico and this is minor I think it is I don't know that there is a lot of you know trade or

35:42or you know bilateral commercial relationships between Mexico and and Iran know that that was more confined to places like Venezuela Cuba here in the western hemisphere and of course the United States what about cartels cartels cartels cartels you know cartels deal and they're like a mafia do they deal with the enemies of this country at all in any way to support them you've got billions and trillions of dollars coming in with drugs and human trafficking are they are they working to support those countries well I mean we do know for example the cartels in Mexico like Sinaloa particularly have worked alongside both his bala and China to bring a fentanyl in particular into the United States that's been a topic of bilateral discussions of course between President Trump and you know party chairman she multiple times sure it will be coming up again in the

36:45discussions later this month but the cartels are especially involved with China or have been in terms of providing precursor chemicals to make those to spin up the you know mix them up in Mexico press out the pills there that kind of relationship we're going to take a little break right now we're talking with our guest Claire Lopez we'll come back and wrap up all this information that you really need to know about what is happening with Iran the United States the straits and foremove on the neighbors in the Middle East you don't want to miss this last segment stay with us we wouldn't go a day without washing our hands brushing our teeth and washing our nose well wait we wash our nose yes the number one place where bacteria viruses and pollen in our body is through the nose so the average person breathes over 23,000 times a day that's 23,000 opportunities for bacteria viruses and irritants to get into your nose and make you sick for an extra layer of protection wash your nose with clear that is clear x L E A R

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38:55and the power of living nutrition visit the sproutingcumbay.com and use the code out loud for an exclusive offer. Welcome back to the national security hour this is a very compelling hour with our friend Claire Lopez and Claire knows a lot about what's going on in the middle east she served how many years did you serve with the central intelligence agency. 20 years 1980 until 2000 and tell us a little bit about that time tell us where you were. Well i had always wanted to travel and to see the world ever since i fell in love with my fourth grade geography book and i got to do that i served in africa central america south america and the Balkans as well but you're interested in your expertise in the middle east how did that how did that develop. That came later i have to say because i did not serve or focus on the middle east at all during during my government service but it was afterwards in the the 19 or rather i should say after 2000

40:05that and after of course 9-11 that my attention really turned to them at least i was serving in the department of state bureau of diplomatic security on 9-11 as a contractor there producing threat assessments for our diplomatic missions abroad and it was that 9-11 that really turned my attention to islam to the middle east and eventually of course to Iran itself and all of that came came later yeah you see this president having a different relationship and sitting down at the table with some leaders in places like Saudi Arabia the other presidents haven't you've got omans sultan you've got the sadi crown prince they're discussing the streets of the strait of hormuz with the president how is that going to change the dynamic in the middle east that has been somewhat iffy in other generations other years of various presidents well i think we'll

41:10remember that um president trump's very first visit abroad in his first term was in may of 2017 and where did he go he went to re-eid he went to sadi arabia and i remember listening to watching that speech and i realized right then and there uh that texonic plates were moving as i thought of it in my own mind uh and indeed so it so it happened um president trump that that first term and now the second term um of course the abraham accords were concluded in the first term and that began really with that outrage uh to the middle east now sadi arabia has not yet joined uh as a signatory to the abraham accords but i think we all understand that uh their support and in particular the support of their crown prince mahamid bin salman often called mbs for short that that support was a man of key to the others signing on meaning bahrain uh and the united

42:15eminence uh in the gulf and then uh marako and suedean sidan as well let me ask you real quickly because you know i've been a sadi arabia i think you know that i spent about three weeks in sadi arabia and went to re-eid and went to doffra and i went all over sadi arabia the question i have and they have a great deal of respect for this country um the question i have is why do you think they want sign who wants sign the the the the sadi arabia you say they did not sign on the abraham accords they have not yet uh they're holding back um there they are very much uh connected to the united states to uh israel yes israel um and to other neighboring perjume gulf uh are they allowing flights now into israel uh from from from sadi arabia um not that i know of but but there have been exchange well there must be right because there have been exchanges of business uh delegations sporting uh teams um and and and more um and so the relationship you know between israel and sadi arabia

43:21is a very changed one from anything that preceded it and a lot of that does have to do with the initiative by our president donald trump uh which continues um and he has brought together those gulf cooperation uh council gcc countries uh in a way that no president before him had ever done even back to fdr and the great bitter lake and all of that um but now uh with the uh the conflict with the rhan uh i think that has brought these countries perjume gulf gcc countries even closer together because they've all been attacked by a rhan uh and so they they they they have been uh you know bound together more so than ever before and i think we can be hopeful that the abraham accords will expand uh in time to come hootin has been urged by the um aranian president to resist unia us unilateralism with iran so the question i have you know we look at some of the leaders around

44:26the world you look in china north korea that really follows that whatever china tells them to do we look at the leaders in england we look at russia putt and we know they are we don't really in this country understand who the most important and powerful leaders are in the middle east with him the the iranian president urging uh putt does he have any sway with a guy like puttin and who should we be on the i you know who should americans know more about as leaders in the middle east that we don't know who they are well i think i think we know very well who most of them are um certainly we have mentioned mbs and saadi arabia um in the leadership of um the emirates uh where you have uh mohamid bidzayed another very um influential leader leadership figure the the the leadership of bahririn of koei um and certainly we we know very well about the leadership in iran where the president uh

45:28masood posish kian yes uh has been in contact issuing statements and in contact with le deemir putt and of russia the relationship between iran and uh russia has been a pretty close one we often talk about an axis of aggression or you know some turn like that among russia uh iran china and north korea those four and uh puttin's for a matter of fact is is is backing the memorandum of understanding but he admits that the iran u.s ceasefire is just too fragile well he has benefited puttin has uh from that relationship with iran because it was a ran originally uh that supplied drone technology to russia for its use uh against ukraine uh and since that time um of factories plants for the production of of iranian based drones have been established uh built inside of russia um and then of course russia has reciprocated um and so is that russia

46:35providing providing intelligence as we talked about the satellite imagery for targeting to iran so it's been a close relationship there well that's why i was just going to ask you so so russia says they stand in the solidarity with te run but if te run is collapsing if they're military and the economy is not stable they lose their authority in the straits of war mues is puttin good a walk is he going to still stand in solidarity with with uh with iran you know let's remember um russia's military and russia's economy isn't a state of collapse right now too so uh they're they're they're both heading towards uh basket cases Iran and russia both um and so you know i i think the pretense of solidarity will continue as long as it's possible to do so um but it's uh not backed by very much anymore on either side so you believe that that this is the time that puttin is vulnerable

47:38well he certainly has been fought to a standstill by Ukraine i mean you know the question i have is this something that you know we uh Sun Siu used to say when you're when you're when you're weak make them think you're strong when you're strong make them think you're weak you've got uh potentially you've got a situation where puttin looks weak China could be weak uh north Korea could be weak but are they so weak that we we we become a bit careless because we don't think they have the authority or the power that we once think that they used to have is that a strategy no i think the united states has a pretty good understanding uh of the situation in both Iran and in russia um and uh not not going to be um you know lulled or fooled into um you know thinking that uh they're completely collapsed yet which they are not but they still need a little push on both sides who is the best negotiator from the opposition side is it China is it Russia

48:39who are if we're looking to try to be able to have influencers that are sympathetic to a ronset situation regardless of their their own domestic and internal situations who will be of more benefit to lobby either influence china or china influence russia to support the united states against Iran well how do you see that if you had that strategy at the table and they're playing poker who's gonna who do we look to well i mean certainly as we've mentioned uh Xi Jinping will be here in the united states for that visit end of september um and obviously president trump and he will have some very serious discussions uh and we'll see where that goes um as to the others uh there are no negotiations formally going on right now uh between the united states and Iran uh and i uh understand that even though um president volodymyr zalinsky of Ukraine repeatedly has uh offered to engage in ceasefire negotiations with russia that's been

49:42uh refused and and he's looking at potentially someone running against him for leadership in the country that's what i understand is that correct well they cannot have elections according to their own constitution in a time of uh you know uh military conflict that that they're engaged right now so there cannot be elections the constitution of of uh Ukraine does not allow there to be um you know um elections in a time of martial law and you can understand why of course you can't have people standing in long lines out of outside of polling places when the drones and the missiles are are are landing all over so that makes sense but uh there cannot be elections according to their own constitution uh as long as the military situation remains i'm gonna have you put your prediction hat on now it's we're gathering a little bit more less time towards the end of the hour and we're looking at the situation because apparently Ukraine is getting bombed as well people you you said to me that Putin is now not

50:47the hasn't got the strength that he had before uh the uh situation with you even having the united kingdom with them taking positions of trying to get rid of immigrants that have been flooding their shores they're taking a lot more action in that situation how does the leadership play out in that where do you see that whole game playing you've got england frances is is having questionable leadership these aren't the same times that we had to gole and we had Winston Churchill and we had leadership that were either positive positive allies and and formidable foes uh they're all a little lifie uh what what do you what do you make on this what's your prediction how this plays out what i would say is that across europe right now from eastern europe to western europe to the scandinavian countries certainly the Baltics there is serious concern uh that Putin and Russia may increase um their uh their offensive against all of those some of those all of those countries

51:52already there has been a long time months worth of um what might be called sometimes hybrid warfare you might hear the term in the gray zone warfare and what that means is cyber attacks against all of these uh drones oh accidentally overflying nato territory as in romania as in vulgaria um you have uh you know uh is sabotage operations going on um at certain airports for example in uh germany recently uh where sabotage i what's the role of a i and all of this is that a player is that a formidable uh i guess you know but uh in germany the the sabotage has actually been taking place on the ground at airports um and that happens in other places the Baltics in particular are very concerned that there could be uh not a full front invasion uh from russia but um smaller actions

52:54do they have the capability do they have the capability you you've said that he's you know the economy the situation in russia is not as strong as it was before do they have the capability or is this bluster well that's why i'm talking about not expecting a full on offensive even though troops are along certain borders russian troops that is um but why i'm talking about this hybrid in between kind of warfare uh that that launches cyber attacks sabotage attacks um you know if false flag operations perhaps uh the drones and and uh you know uh going astray uh into into nato territory that's the kind of thing that we're looking at right now and what what concerns much of europe and there have been in fact very direct and very specific threats made by russian leadership against for example britain itself all the way to britain why because britain is about to provide um storm shadow um uh missile capability to ira i'm sorry to uh Ukraine

54:05and for that reason they've been threatened directly by russia with the time let me ask you very quick we don't have a whole lot of time left with a situation in this country where you've seen more socialist slash potentially people have even laid some of the name of communists to have been elected internally in this country across the board we've seen some in new york california different places how does that affect the role of the president as a leader in negotiating with countries like russia or china do they like this does it weaken our position does it affect what happens in the outcome of the middle east and the straits of hormuz are they looking to see the internal actions in this country be be fractionalized what's your make on and take on that well this is a topic for a whole nother show honestly um we are talking here about uh the uh apparent popularity

55:05in particular among a younger folks uh popularity of socialism and even flat out communism and what that shows of course is that not only uh you know have these uh forces uh infiltrated our education system uh academia from k through 12 and through university um over the last decades um but that the young people do not know uh what these systems are they don't know what socialism is they don't know what communism is they don't know what communism did to uh Cuba right offshore from florida they have no idea what happened when the you know the castros took over the revolution of 59 60 well i know you're gonna be writing about it since we're running out of time and you've got a lot on your site that people should look to to read some of your i don't have a site that's the well you have well where should they go to read some of your articles should they go to do this my news max

56:06blog yeah uh it's called in defense of liberty it is my news max blog site i also post at citizens for um national security uh the commission or the the commission of citizens for national security ccns um also the united west also um the near east center for strategic engagement where i'm on their advisory board um and then social media very good we're gonna look forward to that clear another discussion another time thank you so much for joining us we're just really out of time right now in the national security hour clear lopis thank you i'm lucky to column we'll talk next week