GIS Radio: Myanmar’s rare earth ambitions

I want you to take a second and just think about the technology you rely on every single day.

Oh, yeah. Like your smartphone, your laptop.

Right. Exactly. Or maybe the tech you're planning to buy soon, like an electric vehicle,

or, you know, the high-tech magnets inside all your devices. Maybe even the precision guidance

systems that keep global shipping lanes running. Yeah. It's everywhere. It is. And there's this

incredibly sleek, kind of futuristic expectation we have about all of this green and next-generation tech.

Oh, totally. We picture like sterile labor tortoises.

Christine factories. Yeah. And this clean, renewable horizon.

Exactly. But what have I told you that the secret linchpin-like, the absolute foundation holding

this entire global tech boom together, is a country currently mired in a brutal civil war?

It's pretty jarring when you think about it. It really is. I'm talking about me and more.

So welcome to today's deep dive. It's a striking contradiction, honestly,

and it really forces a reality check for all of us because we intuitively associate these advanced

technologies with a clean, progressive future. But when you trace the supply chain all the way back

to the dirt, the reality of where these foundational materials originate is, well, it's anything

but clean. And it is certainly not stable. Not at all. And that is exactly our mission for today.

We are unpacking a highly timely and credibly eye-opening report from GIS reports.

Yeah. This was put together by geopolitical analyst Prashant Paramus Warren.

Right. And it's in for publication on March 17, 2026.

And the goal here is to really, you know, cut through the noise of complex global geopolitics.

It can get pretty dense. It really can. We need to understand exactly how a fractured,

historically isolated nation has somehow become the absolute center of a global tug of war

over critical minerals. And frankly, we need to understand why that shiny,

new green tech you are so proud of might have a surprisingly dark origin story.

Okay, let's unpack this. Let's do it. To really grasp the global stakes here,

we first have to understand the sheer mind-boggling scale of what is buried in Myanmar's soil.

Right. Because when most people think about rare earth minerals,

they immediately think of China. And for good reason, right?

China currently accounts for about 60% of the global rare earth mining output.

Wow. 60%. Yeah. And when it comes to the processing side of things,

actually turning those raw, muddy minerals into the refined magnet materials we use,

China controls more than 90% of the global market.

Wait, hang on. The math doesn't add up there.

How so?

If China already dominates 60% of the world's mining,

why are we talking about Myanmar? I mean, why are they relevant

if Beijing essentially holds them monopoly?

Well, because Myanmar is the silent giant in this equation, specifically for the materials

that matter most. Okay.

The analysis shows that Myanmar is actually second only to China in terms of rare earth use

specifically in magnets. Oh, wow. Second in the world.

Yeah. Roughly two thirds of China's annual imports of rare earth elements come directly

from Myanmar. That is massive. It's a billion dollar supply chain.

And it is centered almost entirely on what are called heavy rare earth elements,

specifically elements like dysprosium and terbium.

Okay. I've heard those names thrown around in tech circles,

but break down the mechanics for sure.

What makes heavy rare earths so irreplaceable? I mean, why can't we just use standard

magnetic materials? It really just comes down to basic physics and heat.

Heat. Yeah. So if you think about a standard magnet,

it's magnetic field is created by atoms aligning in a specific direction.

Right. Like in high school science class.

Exactly. But when that magnet gets hot, like say, inside an electric vehicle motor that's

spinning at thousands of revolutions per minute or inside a massive wind turbine baking in the sun.

Exactly. When it gets hot, that atomic alignment starts to shake loose.

The magnet essentially loses its grip and it demagnetizes.

So the engine just fails precisely. Heavy rare earths like dysprosium act like a molecular superglue.

A molecular superglue. I like that. Yeah. When you mix them into the magnet's alloy,

they lock that atomic structure in place. It allows the magnet to operate at extremely high

temperatures without losing its magnetic properties. Look how they see. You simply cannot build a

functional electric vehicle or a reliable wind turbine without them. They are completely irreplaceable.

So to look at this geopolitically, I mean, it's like a global bakery where China gets all the

credit for baking the cake, but Myanmar is quietly supplying all the essential hard-defined flower.

That is a perfect way to put it. But again, I have to push back here. If China has its own vast

reserves and they do 60% of the mining, why rely on an unstable war zone across the border?

Yeah. Why not just dig it up themselves? That is the critical question. Over recent years,

China's own domestic mining activity for these specific heavy rare earths has drastically declined.

Really? Why? Well, Beijing looked at the severe environmental degradation happening within

its own borders and they implemented much tighter environmental and industry regulations

domestically. Oh, so they essentially cleaned up their own backyard by throwing the trash over

the fence? That is exactly what happened. They tightened the rules at home, which basically

resulted in outsourcing the heavy, messy, environmentally catastrophic work across their southern

border into Myanmar. Unbelievable. Yeah. They keep the high-value, high-tech processing industry safe

within China, but they let Myanmar handle the unregulated toxic extraction, which leads us directly

to the reality on the ground in Myanmar. Because if you have a billion dollar extraction industry

supplying the most critical component of the global tech boom, you would naturally assume that

Myanmar's central government is sitting on a gold mine building immense national wealth.

You would think so, yeah. But the geography of this tells a completely different story.

It is far more fragmented and incredibly volatile. Right. If you look at the map,

provided in the GIS sources, these mining sites aren't spread evenly across the country

and they aren't near the capital. No, that's at all. They were clustered right up against the

Chinese border. We were talking about places like Chippewy Township and Pangwa, deep in Kachin

and I want to pause here for you listening. Because we are dealing with politically charged ongoing

civil war dynamics between the military, Shanta and various rebel groups, we want to make it

absolutely clear to you listening. We are not taking sides or endorsing any political viewpoints here.

We are strictly and impartially reporting the facts on the ground as outlined in the GIS source

material. Absolutely. And the facts on the ground regarding that control are completely counterintuitive.

How so? Well, the military junta, which took power in the coup back in 2021, actually controls

very few of these lucrative mineral deposits. Wow. It's wild to think about a military government

that is effectively locked out of its own most valuable resource. It is. Instead, these billion

dollar deposits are exploited primarily by ethnic armed groups. Okay. In Kachin state,

where the bulk of this rare earth extraction is happening, the territory is controlled by the

Kachin Independence Organization or the KIO. They function almost like an autonomous entity in that

region and they have been exporting these resources directly across the border to China for processing

for a long time. And the KIO isn't the only player in this space, right? No. The data points to

significant rare earth mining expanding further south into Shant State. Okay. So a different region

entirely. Yeah. And that area is controlled by different ethnic armed groups, most notably the

United West State Army, the UWSA. Right. And to give you some context, the UWSA isn't just a

rag tag rebel group. They are widely considered by analysts to be the most capable, well-funded,

and well-equipped among all the armed groups in Myanmar. They operate what is essentially a state

within a state, complete with their own weapons manufacturing. So instead of a unified national

export strategy, you have heavily armed non-state actors running a decentralized billion dollar

global supply chain. Yeah. What's fascinating here is how the specific dynamic, you know, armed

groups running local economies isn't entirely new, even if the sheer scale of the rare earth boom

is unprecedented. What do you mean? Well, the Myanmar military has a decades-old history of negotiating

specific ceasefire arrangements with these ethnic armies. The mechanics of these deals are essentially

the military allows these groups to pursue their own highly lucrative economic activities,

like mining or logging in their respective territories. Oh, I see. And in return. In exchange,

the armed groups agree to a cessation of hostilities. This allows the central military to retain overall

political power in the capital without having to fight a war on a dozen fronts simultaneously.

So it's a fragile balancing act built on a mountain of dysprosia. Exactly. And here's where it gets

really interesting, because the fact that non-state actors control a critical global resource

creates a massive vulnerability, but also an opportunity for world superpowers.

Absolutely. I mean, it's like a lawless gold rush. Or it's like a toll booth on the world's most

important technological highway. But the toll booth is operated by a heavily armed neighborhood

watch that the actual national government is completely powerless to evict. That is a perfect

way to visualize it. And the broader geopolitical panic here is intense. Oh, I'm sure.

Countries around the world, especially the United States, are terrified of this exact setup.

Because of the supply chain vulnerability. Exactly. They look at China's 90% processing monopoly

combined with this unstable pipeline from Myanmar and realize the supply chain could easily be

weaponized for coercion. Right. If Beijing suddenly decides to restrict exports of these refined

magnet materials, like during a diplomatic dispute, for example, yeah, it could instantly paralyze

entire sectors of the US and European economies from defense manufacturing to the entire green

energy transition, which is why they desperately want to diversify. They need a backup plan.

Everyone is looking for alternative sources. They are. And this urgency ties into a much larger

regional economic trend that analysts refer to as resource nationalism or downstreaming.

Okay, break the mechanics of that down force. What does it actually mean for a country

to downstream its resources? It basically means moving up the economic value chain. Okay.

Historically, many developing nations would just let foreign companies come in dig up their

raw dirt and export it for pennies on the dollar. Meanwhile, the foreign companies made billions

refining it abroad. Right. Classic exploitation. Exactly. Resource nationalism is the idea that

these governments are no longer content with that deal. Countries across Asia, like Indonesia,

with nickel, are asserting greater control over their natural resources. They want a bigger piece

of the pie. Yeah. They are passing laws, forcing foreign companies to build the expensive processing

plants locally. They want to capture the massive profit margins of the refined product, not just

sell the raw ore. Okay. That makes sense on a macroeconomic level. Okay. But let's apply this

directly to the US and Myanmar. Sure. Because if the US and others are absolutely desperate to counter

China's dominance, and Myanmar has the second largest functional supply of these critical magnet

minerals, why don't they just swoop in? It's a logical question. Right. I mean, why don't the US

or European tech giants bypass China entirely and make direct deals with the junta or even the

armed groups to secure their own supply? Because the reality of operating in Myanmar right now

makes that geographically and politically impossible. The logistical hurdles are just

instrumentable. First, you have an active ongoing civil war. Yeah. That means there are no secure

land routes and certainly no secure sea routes to reliably get thousands of tons of minerals

out of the country to the west. Right. I mean, you can't exactly run a highly coordinated fleet

of corporate semi-trucks through an unpredictable combat zone. Exactly. Add to that the fact that

these mines are located an incredibly remote contested and rugged mountainous terrain. Right.

But the most glaring roadblock is the lack of infrastructure. There is zero advanced rare

earth processing capability inside Myanmar. Because, as we established, China does all the complex

high-tech processing right across the border. Yes. Myanmar literally only has the capability to

dig it out of the ground. Right. Furthermore, if the US tried to bypass the central government and

make a direct diplomatic or economic deal with a group like the KIO, it would severely complicate

the KIO's existing vital ties with China. And they wouldn't want to risk that. No, because for

the KIO, China isn't just a casual trading partner. It is a massive, looming geographic and

economic neighbor that carries far more immediate weight and leverage than the distant United States.

So the west is effectively locked out by geography, a total lack of infrastructure,

and the chaotic realities of the Civil War. Exactly. Which leaves this entire operation

completely unregulated, serving a single master across the border. And that brings us to the

devastating on-the-ground reality. Change a grim. Because beyond the high-level geopolitical

chess game and the billions of dollars changing hands, there is a horrifying, tangible,

physical toll for the people of Myanmar. There really is. The extraction process for heavy

rare earths is notoriously toxic, even when it is conducted under the most strict modern

environmental regulations. Right. So in a completely unregulated militant run environment,

the process is catastrophic. Let's explain the actual mechanism of this to everyone listening,

because it's not just guys with pickaxes. Oh, no, not at all. We are talking about a process

called in situ leaching. The GIS source files included this striking imagery of the aftermath,

but the way they get there is brutal. Miners literally drill deep holes into the side of a lush,

living mountain. Yeah. Then they pump thousands of gallons of a highly toxic chemical,

usually ammonium sulfate directly into the earth. It's terrible. The chemicals dissolve the

soil from the inside out. That separates those tightly bound rare earth elements from the dirt.

The mountain is essentially liquefied from within, and the resulting toxic sludge is pumped back

to the surface. It is a devastatingly efficient way to extract the minerals, but the environmental

cost is absolute. I can't even imagine. That striking imagery you mentioned perfectly encapsulates

the grim reality. You see these sprawling, unregulated mining sites carved out of what used to

be vibrant forests. Just totally barren. The earth is completely stripped bare, deeply scarred,

and right in the middle of these vast excavated craters are these stagnant, unnatural looking pools

of water. Oh, wow. They aren't lakes either. They are chemical runoff pits filled with the toxic

byproducts of that leaching process. Because there are absolutely no environmental or labor

standards being enforced by these armed groups, the consequences just cascade. Exactly. We are

looking at rampant deforestation just to clear the land for the drilling, massive soil erosion.

Because the structural integrity of the mountain sides has been chemically dissolved,

which leads to deadly landslides. And it is a complete and utter loss of biodiversity.

Absolutely. And we cannot ignore the human element here either. The public health impacts on the

local populations living near these sites are horrific. I'm sure the water supply alone. Exactly.

Those toxic chemicals without any protective containment liners or water treatment facilities

leach directly into the topsoil in the groundwater. Right. And the local communities rely on those

exact water sources for drinking and agriculture. And if we connect this to the bigger picture,

this isn't just a localized tragedy contained within Myanmar's borders anymore, is it? Because the

geography of rivers doesn't care about national borders. That is a crucial point. If we connect this

to the bigger picture, the environmental damage has already spilled over. Specifically, the severe

water contamination linked to the mining activities down in Shand State has literally flowed down

river directly across the border into neighboring Thailand. Wow. That fundamentally changes the

geopolitical math. Thailand isn't just a bystander watching a civil war next door anymore.

No, they are essentially being forced to drink the toxic runoff of the global energy transition.

How was Bangkok responding to this? With intense diplomatic criticism and growing alarm,

Thailand is now being forced to step out of its traditional diplomatic comfort zone to position

itself as a leading regional manager of Myanmar's spillover crises. Right. Because it affects them

directly now. Exactly. Their own agricultural security and the health of their border populations

are directly threatened by this unregulated mining boom. It is the ultimate

tragic paradox. I mean, think about it. You listening might go out and purchase a state-of-the-art

electric vehicle. Yeah. And you are doing it because you want to reduce your carbon footprint,

you want to cut emissions, and you want to help save the environment. Right. It feels like the ethical

choice. But the physical motor propelling that car down the highway is held together by magnets

born from the complete unregulated ecological destruction of a mountain in Myanmar.

It is a textbook definition of the resource curse. Explain that turn real quick.

It's where having an abundance of incredibly valuable natural resources actually

undermines a country's prosperity, stability, and environment rather than elevating it.

It's a dark irony. The very resources that the globe desperately needs to achieve a green transition

are actively fueling localized environmental collapse and funding armed conflict.

Yeah. So synthesizing all this chaos, the civil war, the environmental destruction,

the geopolitical standoff, the downstreaming, where did the situation actually go from here?

It's a tough question. Walk us through the future scenarios laid out in the GIS analysis,

because they map out three very distinct possibilities for Myanmar's rare earth sector.

Right. Yeah. The analyst breaks it down by likelihood.

So let's start with what is considered the most likely scenario.

Okay. In this outcome, the status quo largely holds.

We see a continuation of narrow short-term economic deals.

The underlying structural problems remain entirely unsolved.

So, business is usual, but perhaps with higher stakes.

Essentially, yes. The KIO and other armed groups will likely leverage the soaring global

demand for these rare earth to renegotiate better prices and more favorable terms with their

Chinese buyers. Right. Because they know their strategic values increasing.

Exactly. We might also see nearby countries like India attempt to negotiate limited,

localized deals given their geographic proximity and their own need for minerals.

But major US involvement. It remains highly unlikely due to those severe

logistical and political constraints we discussed earlier.

So the money keeps flowing to the armed groups, the environment continues to degrade,

and the civil conflict just grinds on.

Unfortunately, yes.

Okay. What about the second scenario?

What does a pass towards stability actually look like?

Well, the less likely scenario involves a total recalibration of the mining sector.

The goal would be to create broadly distributed economic benefits for the entirety of Myanmar,

rather than just enriching specific local armed groups and Chinese processing firms.

That sounds incredibly optimistic. It is.

What are the actual mechanics of achieving that in a fractured state?

It would require a monumental shift, specifically a transition away from the current military junta

to a functional civilian representative government.

That's a huge hurdle right there.

Right. And it doesn't stop at just changing the leadership.

You would need to unite the central government, the ethnic armed groups,

and local communities to create what analysts call an enabling ecosystem.

An enabling ecosystem, meaning what?

It means undertaking serious complex dialogues on federalism,

indigenous land rights, and establishing a robust constitutional framework that dictates

exactly how mining revenues are shared nationally.

Basically, you have to build a functional, regulated,

inclusive state from the ground up all while sitting on a billion dollar gold mine

that everyone wants a piece of.

Exactly. Which is precisely why the scenario is categorized as less likely.

The political will and the trust required between these warring factions simply do not exist right now.

Right. That makes sense.

And that brings us to the third scenario.

The least likely scenario is a complete and sudden rollback of rebel mining operations.

Full stop.

A full stop to the extraction of rare earths in these border regions.

Why is that the least likely?

I mean, given that they're at war, wouldn't the military junta want to

completely shut down their enemy's primary funding source?

They absolutely would want to, but they simply do not have the operational control

or the military power to enforce it in those rugged border territories.

Right.

The UWSA and the KIO are just too deeply entrenched.

So how would a halt even happen then?

The only way a full halt realistically happens is through a combination of severe,

internal, and external pressures.

Like what?

There would have to be an overwhelming domestic backlash from the local populations

suffering from the environmental destruction combined with intense, sustained,

regional pressure.

Like from Thailand.

Exactly.

Thailand threatening major economic or diplomatic consequences over the cross-border water

contamination.

Only then might the armed groups be forced to halt operations to preserve their own political

standing and regional alliances.

Wow.

So what does this all mean?

When you take a step back and synthesize all these moving parts, the

billion dollar Chinese processing monopolies that heavily armed rebel groups

acting as toll booths, the mountains being dissolved into toxic lakes and the global panic

over securing supply chains, what is the core insight you should walk away with today?

I think the fundamental takeaway is that supply chains are never just abstract lines drawn

on a global map.

Right.

They are deeply, inextricably embedded in the political, social, and environmental realities

of the dirt they originate from.

You cannot separate the future of global, clean technology from the messy, violent reality of

Myanmar's civil conflict.

Myanmar isn't just some distant country, occasionally making the evening news for its tragic

ongoing civil war, it is quite literally the fragile,

unregulated, and highly contested engine room of our modern technological world.

It is supplying the literal magnetic pull that keeps the entire

global green energy transition moving forward.

But it is doing so at an incredibly dark and devastating cost to its own people and its own land.

Exactly.

So the next time you look at a piece of high-tech gear or read an optimistic article about the

booming sales of electric vehicles, I want you to remember the complex, hidden web that made

it possible.

Yeah.

Remember the disprosium holding the motors together, remember the Kachin independence organization,

the dissolved mountain sides, and the high-stakes geopolitics playing out in the shadows of the jungle.

And there is one final crucial implication to consider here looking forward.

Oops, that.

We are currently in this frantic, global race to transition away from fossil fuels,

relying heavily on these rare earths to save our climate.

Right, it's an existential race.

But if the extraction of these materials requires the complete toxic destruction of local ecosystems

in places like Myanmar, what happens when those regions become entirely uninhabitable?

That is a staggering thought.

If Myanmar's environment collapses entirely due to unregulated mining,

will the global push for green energy inadvertently trigger the next massive wave of regional

climate refugees?

Wow.

It forces us to ask, are the very technological tools we are building to save the planet

simultaneously making large parts of it completely unlivable?

Let that sink in.